This is quite interesting.
A good plus would be to know a bit more about the author himself.

One thing a lot of people do not understand is the geo-political importance of Syria, irrespective of any regime in power there, in that part of the world.

For example, there is absolutely no way to minimize the influence of Syria in Lebanese politics. Just look at the map. Lebanon has a lot to gain from good friendly – but definitely “un-soviet” type imposed – relations with neighboring Syria. Both economies are complimentary.

Another thing is the Arab “appartenance” of Lebanon: Christian hard-liners should embrace it. But on the other hand, Moslem extremists should acknowledge too Christian Rightists’ great contribution in the well-being of a jewel like Lebanon. Here, it goes without saying that these same Christian Rightists should never forget, whether they like it or not, that they owe a lot to the first incursion of Syrians under Hafez Assad in their country, preserving them of an eventual fatal collapse. Unfortunately, nowadays a lot of Lebanese forget that.

It is indeed very sad not to have, for the time being, pre-Union (with Egypt’s Nasser) or post-Union Syrian governments-like alternatives, mainly because of the whole surrounding intermingled politics dominated since 1948 by the never-ending Palestinian-Israeli problem, by the birth and death of Nasser’s Arab nationalism, by the upcoming of a brilliant tactician called Hafez Assad, by the elimination of the Shah in Iran and the Mollahs’ “Terreur” (French Revolution) type regime, by the long civil war in Lebanon, by the assassination of Sadate and the failure of Camp David accords, by the rise and fall of Saddam, by the upbringing of Bashar Assad, and by the tragic elimination of Rafik Hariri.

Most of Syria’s foreign policy was, is and shall be planned based on the above events. The greatest player here was undoubtely Hafez Assad: he could manage to sail in these very dire straits, avoiding the ire of the States, cajoling sometimes with Israel (although definitely convinced by the continuing “Rape of Palestine” trauma), flirting with France, understanding UK’s desiderata, honeymooning with Moscow, befriending Iran, presenting his bills to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, saving the unity of Lebanon (at least for some), condemning Saddam and his own brief rape of Kuwait, standing with the Iraq(i people at the end!

Syria has always been at the core of radical Arab nationalism more than anybody else. Maybe this has a lot to do with “Al-Kaoumieh Al-Sourieh” (Pan-Syrian Nationalism) principles as preached by the late Antoun Saadeh.

May be Syria is still not ready for a Western type of democracy! May be she is better off with that kind of power concentrated in the hands of the President. Maybe her foreign policy has to be conducted that way, at least for the time being!

Syria is “important” only because of one thing. It exports destabilization to its neighbors.

What can Syria under Asad ofer its neighbors?
Can it ofer technology? Can it ofer markets? Can it ofer investments? Can it ofer loans? No to all.

So how does Syria make itself important? By blackmail. It is very easy to disrupt and cause havoc and very difficult to build. Syria threatens its neigbors with terrorism and expects people to react well to this. Syria is very good at wrecking but very bad at building. I think it is a short sighted strategy that will backfire in the next 10 years.

AIG,

You won’t understand it.

The fact Syria stopped the Lebanese civil war and kept Lebanon quiet and functional and with a booming economy is totally lost … all you know is that there was Syrian corruption and “control” in Lebanon.

The fact Syria saved the lives of 1.5 million Iraqis is useless in your opinion … Syria “exports violence to Iraq” is what you decided to see instead.

Syria is the country that took initiative for Madrid peace conference in the 90’s and the rest of the peace negotiations that followed for years … if your extremists did not kill Prime minister Rabin, he was going to make peace with Syria.

Syria is the country without which President Bush Senior and James Baker decided they could not build a successful coalition to oust Saddam from Kuwait … read Baker’s book .. read what President Bush told him about needing Assad’s blessing for the coalition.

Syria is the downtown of the Middle East … the heart of the Arab world …

Damascus is the city where the prophet decide to not enter because he only enters paradise once.

Alex,

Let’s be serious and realistic.

1) Can Syria invest in other countries, like Japan invests in China?
2) Does Syria have the ability to manufacture things like China does so that others would be interested in investing in it?
3) What percentage of Syrians know another language other than Arabic?
4) What percentage of Syrians are computer literate and ready for outsourcing style India?
5) Is there a technology sector that Syria is competitive in?
6) Is there a financial sector Syria is competitive in?

Maybe Syria has something to ofer its neighbors that is not negative. Please list it.

And of course Baker thought he needed Asad’s blessing. This is my whole point. The Syrians are great at being spoilers. They can spoil a lot in the middle east. They are ruthless and have no problem supporting terrorism and assasinating people and are geniouses at manipulating the Arab street with false promises of “resistance and dignity”. But there is nothing productive in all of this. It is all negative and counterproductive.

Please, Israel stopped the war between Fatah and Hamas in the west bank by arresting the Hamas leaders and fighters and by allowing Fatah to get weapons. I am not as cynical as you to portray this as something worthy of praise. Syria took over Lebanon for its own interests and stopped the civil war because it favored people who supported it and wanted peace and quiet in Lebanon.

AIG,

That’s right. Syria is not Japan and it is not China. It is only a Mafia figure … always busy terrorizing the Japans and chinas of the Middle East.

And I will leave it at that.

Alex,

Syria is busy destabilizing Lebanon, Iraq and Israel. Until Turkey threatened to attack it, it was also destabilizing Turkey by supporting the PKK. It would have attacked Jordan by now if it were not for Israeli protection.

These are facts that you just won’t face. Why is Syria acting in the way it is? What PRODUCTIVE things can it ofer its neigbors? What can Syria build or can it only spoil?

AIG,

This post started with you asking a question trying to understand why the gentleman from Egypt’s most respected Think Tank (Alahram’s center for strategic studies) says that Syria is very influential and that Bshar’s inaugural speech this year was popular with everyone.

I tried to explain.

You find it not logical.

Alex,

Popular with who?
If Bashar was really that popular he wouldn’t have to opress his people so much and he wouldn’t be afraid of freedom of speech.
Don’t you see the blatant contradiction?

Most Syrians would prefer to see Bashar in jail or dead. That is the reality and Bashar knows it.

“Most Syrians would prefer to see Bashar in jail or dead”

Again, you analyze everything based on your own imagination.

First, most Syrians are very young …. below 25.

I will not spend too much time typing knowing that I have not been successful in convincing you of anything.

But I will copy and past the notes from Zenobia and Ehsani … both of them are Americans from Syrian parents… and they are neutral-t-critical of the regime. Actually, Ehsani, is quite critical if you notice elsewhere.

Here are their notes after they visited Syria this summer.

Zenobia talks about the “presidential elections” and all the street celebrations that she witnessed, Ehsani talks about the popularity of Bashar:

Zenobia wrote:

Still…still i want to say…it didn’t seem enough to explain… what appeared for the life of me…as spontaneous…participation..

the part i mean.. was the zillion kids… parading in their groups and hanging out of their cars…waving flags.. flooding the streets… singing, chanting, dancing, and generally causing a ruckus for several days… in a fashion that seems – way beyond what would be required if it was all on instruction from on high….

are they brainwashed completely???? i have no idea.
are they stupid…and don’t know what they supporting? maybe.
are they just interested in an excuse for a party?… seems a bit extreme lengths to go… and this doesnt’ really require chanting the ridiculous bashar song does it?…

dear commentors, no i am not kidding…maybe- these activities all seem trite, meaningless, and unimportant. after all , who cares what the 21 year old ignoramous thinks….

but let us not forget… that something like 70 percent of the country is under the age of 25. !!!!!
it is not a hard statistic to believe…babies and little kids everywhere…teens, college students… you feel old…just walking in the street! 30 is over the hill..here…

and these kids, dear friends…are everything coming…they are the dealbreakers, the ones who will decide…the future…

and that big show that went on..was definitely for them..it was a big pseudo rock concert, light show, production, delivered especially for them…
it is very carefully crafted with full understanding of who is important in the long run.

and who is REALLY in the hearts of these young people??????
dear commentors, i cannot accurately say.., but the fact that they were no serious ruptures in the visual fabric… (albeit, my foreign and untrained eyes might have missed it) says something…it must in itself reveal something about what is happening…

these children want desperately to believe in this myth..and to grab onto it. if nothing more than the naive, fickle, adoration of youth… still…it has that passionate essense…and force..the force of pride and stubborness, and need to make the image be true..it can’t easily be dismissed or ignored or rationalized.

i think.

May 30th, 2007, 9:46 pm

EHSANI2 wrote:

Those who think that Bashar is unpopular are wrong. I think that it is incorrect to assume that fear of the leadership drives so many people into such a showing of support.

Indeed, compared to the Syria of 1980-2000, it is easy to see why. Those of us who lived/visited the country during the above period can vividly recall how hard it was to find even bananas and toilet paper then. Hafez Assad was feared and respected but not liked. The same cannot be said of Bashar. His youth, looks, wife and kids, education and general demeanor are surely a big hit. Moreover, Bashar’s opening of the economy has allowed more people to drive and own cars and cell phones. Fear of the security services may still exist but nowhere near the levels under Assad senior. During Hafez’s days, once you were picked up, it was highly probable that you would not be heard from again. Now, you may get interrogated for a few days or months but you will be back. The cumulative impact of all this is what you see in the streets. Anyone who denies the level of the man’s support within the people of the country is being disingenuous.

Alex,
You can bring as much anecdotal evidence as you want but you need to answer a very simple question: If Bashar is popular, why is he so afraid of the Syrians? Why is Syria one of the worst police states in the world? Why is the internet censored? Why is there no freedom of speech?

And the comments from people in Syria as well as Eshani say clearly that there is a very small elite that is enjoying economic improvement while the vast majority languish in poverty and risk being radicalized. That is the true picture.

The problem with you, ANOTHERISRAELIGUY, is that you see eveything from an “obtuse” eye.

You are right in some of your points, but that does not mean jumping to the conclusions you mention is adequate.

Nobody in the entire world conducts politics “uninterested”.

Of course that Syria might have her own interest in Lebanon, the same way Turkey influences parts of northern Syria and Iraq in her struggle with the PKK. This is a rule of the thumb. Any country, any time in history, makes sure that its sphere of influence in the next neighboring countries is “preponderant”.

I wonder why you do have that very black picture of Syria and Syrians in your mind (and heart).

Unless you were personally affected by some Syrian unfortunate political options, I don’t see why you go to these extremes.

Alex is very objective in the way he tries to make you understand.

It is entirely up to you to “get it”.

George,
I have a very realistic picture of Syria.
I do not have a black view of Syrians at all. In fact, I pity them for living under the yoke of an oppressive regime. But the facts about Bashar’s regime are clear. He will do anything to stay in power and his usual startegy and is being a spoiler and mainpulating Arab public opinion using false promises of “resistance and dignity”.

In my opinon, to be for Syria is to be against Bashar who is leading the country to a dead end.

Someone I know well took part in the Golani assault on the Hermon mountain in 73. When they took over the Syrian stronghold they found that the Syrian soldiers died handcuffed to their posts so they could not run away. This is basically what the Asads have been doing to the Syrians forever. They are forcing them to accept a vision and course of action that is bad for the Syrians but good for the Asads. The sooner you wake up to this reality, the sooner you will realize what needs to be done.

Listen my dear AIG,

I am not at all defending the Asads. I am talking about Syria. Just stop your nonsense. In your writings, all you do is “fumigating your acidity”. Keep it for yourself, if you don’t want to be objective and understand. Your attitude is completely out of context. A regime is not there to stay for ever; a country is, unless you want to take it too!

Be realistic like a Rabin. Don’t be fool like a Shamir or a Begin. Obviously, Alex gave up on you, ’cause you’re utterly biased.