Watch this video made by two sharp Hungarian journalists, Gerg? Plankó & Bence Gáspár Tamás, who posed as tourists in order to get around Syria and make a film about the Syrian uprising. It is 9:30 minutes. It has English subtitles and wonderful footage of Damascus.

Impact on Arab uprisings (4 minute Radio show of Bin Laden’s death and the Arab Spring)
Public Radio International – The World ? May 2, 2011

Joshua Landis talks to anchor Lisa Mullins about the impact Bin Laden’s death may have on what some are calling the “Arab Spring.” Download MP3

A dramatic development on the economic front.
By Ehsani

The central bank just asked the banks to pay close to 3% higher interest rates on deposits.They will have to raise the lending rate up to 12 to 13% to protect their profit margins.  The government is doing everything they can to support the SYP exchange rate. In the past, the Central bank intervened by selling dollars and buying syp to try and bring the value back. They seem to have decided not to use their reserves anymore. Their plan B has just been executed. By raising rates up so sharply, they hope to bring people’s money back in SYP. The deposit rate now will be up to 10%. They also raised deposit rates on dollars by close to 2.5%. Unless the banks are able to raise their lending rates by as much, their profits will be wiped out. The lending rates were already close to 10%. They will have to now raise it close to 12% or higher to make any money. This is a dramatic development that will send shivers through the spine of the banking industry.  Banks are being asked to subsidize the effort to stabilize the currency.

The central bank has also issued the following new decree:

An individual can now exchange up to $120,000 a year (up from $10,000 per person), but he has to keep the money at the bank for a year before he can take it out in dollars. In other words, the central bank will guarantee the 47 SYP exchange rate if you agree to leave your money at the bank in a deposit for one year for an amount not exceeding $120,000 a year.

The Damascus Stock Exchange has risen for the first time in 14 sessions (small rise).

Syria wants to talk to opposition leaders, but there aren’t any
By Nicholas Blanford, Christian Science Monitor

Western diplomats say that some members of Syria’s Assad regime are ready to reach out, but a dearth of visible leaders gives those advocating force the upper hand.

The beleaguered Syrian authorities are seeking negotiations with opposition leaders to end six weeks of unprecedented street protests that threaten to topple the Assad regime, according to Western diplomatic sources. They say that Bouthaina Shaaban, a top adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, has been placed in charge of exploring ways to launch a dialogue.

But amid a harsh crackdown on protesters, a rising death toll, and reports of thousands of people detained and missing, the regime is struggling to find anyone in the opposition who wants to talk.

“We say no to negotiations, at least until the secret police are gone from Syria. And when the secret police goes, then the regime will go as well,” says Rami Nakhle, a Syrian opposition activist in Beirut.

A European ambassador in Damascus says that the hard-line elements in the regime appeared to have the upper hand for now in attempting to suppress the uprising by force. “There are some [members of the regime] who want to talk to the opposition, but they keep telling us they have no one to talk to,” the ambassador says.

The opposition has no credible, publicly visible figurehead or leadership group that can appeal across Syria’s complicated sectarian and ethnic divides.

Opposition leaders consist mainly of aging secular intellectuals, exiled former members of the Assad regime and Islamists from the Muslim Brotherhood, and young, technologically savvy activists who are using social networking sites to mobilize and publicize the protest movement.

“There is no one in Syria who can speak on behalf of the opposition and this is better for us,” says Mr. Nakle, the opposition activist. “There is no point in negotiating with these people.”

Assad’s rule marked by ‘incompetence’ – diplomat……

Der Spiegel: Syria’s Neighbors Fear Regime Change
2011-05-03, By Clemens Höges, Samiha Shafy and Bernhard Zand.

Are Assad’s Days Numbered? Syria’s Neighbors Fear Regime Change Despite its brutality….

Qatar has cancelled investment for two power projects in Syria:

Protest organizers called for demonstrations in Banyas for today 3 May, but al Jazeera reports that there is no demonstrations in Syria today so far.

Susan Dirgham provides a summary of the situation after spending a week over Easter in Damascus.

Dissecting an Aljazeera Report of a Massacre:  by Yaseen Dhaifalla –  Exposing al-Jazeera Lies. Interesting analysis of Cal Perry’s report on the massacre at Izzra that Syria Comment copied.

Syria Detains 1,000 People in Two Days, Local Rights Group Says
May 03, 2011,
By Massoud Derhally

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Syrian authorities have arrested more than 1,000 people in the last two days as a crackdown on demonstrations intensifies, according to a local activist group.

About half of the detentions took place in the southern province of Daraa, scene of the most violent clashes between protesters and security forces, Ammar Qurabi, head of Syria’s National Organization for Human Rights, said in a phone interview today.

Syria has sent troops to quell demonstrations, inspired by popular revolts in Egypt and Tunisia, that have spread across the country and posed the most serious challenge to the 11-year rule of President Bashar Al-Assad. Qurabi estimates that more than 550 people have died since the uprising began in mid-March.

The crisis in Syria is “quickly going beyond the point of no return,” the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said in a report today. “The regime’s hope appears to be that a massive crackdown can bring the protesters to heel,” a policy that may lead to “loss of life on a massive scale,” sectarian conflict and the destabilization of Syria’s neighbours, it said.

Syrians tell of torture in detention amid mass arrests, 3 May 2011

Amnesty International has received first-hand reports of torture and other ill-treatment from detainees held in Syria as a wave of arrests of anti-government protesters intensified over the weekend.

Robert Fisk Wrong – Aboud writes:

My friend, Fisk’s account of what happened in Telkelakh is wrong. There was no massacre. The 4th Div are nowhere near Telkelakh (it was the 11th division that was tasked with surrounding the town). In fact, in the firefight more security personal were wounded than their opposition.

I am not an apologist for the regime, but nothing of the sort that Fisk described actually happened. There was a demo, which someone shot at. Being well armed from years of smuggling, some inhabitants shot back. The security forces retreated and then tried to re-enter the town at night. There was a massive exchange of fire, and the security forces withdrew again.

The next day people were allowed out of the village, and the government negotiated with a delegate, that the army would withdraw, if no more demonstrations took place. This being Telkelakh, the young men promptly went out and demonstrated anyway.

Things are back to normal, it is by no means a “ghost town for Sunnis”. Sheikh Usama Al-Akari was released and was happily denouncing the regime from his Friday prayers pulpit two days later.

Syria Today
Daily News Brief – 2 May 2011

Deadly clashes over the past week pushed the death toll since the turmoil in Syria began in March to above 550, human rights groups told Reuters.

The Syrian authorities however only recently produced an estimate of civilian casualties – around 128, including 78 soldiers and security personnel – SANA, the state news agency, reported.

Meanwhile the Syrian media continues to report the deaths and injuries of soldiers and security officials and make occasional reference to civilian deaths at the hands of “extremists”, “terrorists” and “armed gangs”.

Yesterday SANA said eight army and security officials were buried in Homs, after being killed by “extremist terrorist groups” in Dara’a and Homs.

The government continues to pledge reforms in a bid to garner support. President al-Assad’s newly appointed Prime Minister Adel Safar announced on Sunday in a cabinet meeting that the government aims to set up three committees that will develop “a comprehensive plan for desired reforms,” focusing on political, security, judiciary, economic, and social policies, SANA reported.

Finally, the Ministry of Electric Power told SANA that the government is working with Italian and Greek firms to expand the energy sector to meet the country’s growing needs. The statement comes a day after two Qatari companies tasked with building two power plants announced they were withdrawing from the country.

Kuwaiti Amir to visit Syria now that he believes Assad will survive

???? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ??????

????? ???? ????????? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????

Turkish President Abdullah Gul on Syria yesterday: (Thanks Firat)

“We are trying to help the Syria government realize the reforms in a way that is consistent with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people. …We hope that reforms will be implemented without having spilled blood. We hope that there will be a multi-party democracy representing the will of the people.

In Turkish: “Suriye ile devlet olarak devaml? temas halindeyiz. Bu olaylar ba?lamadan önce bile temas halindeyiz. Oradaki reformlar?n gerçekle?mesi, halk?n me?ru talepleri do?rultusunda de?i?imin gerçekle?mesi yönünde de yap?c? katk? sa?lamaya çal???yoruz. Tabii ki en kötü senaryolara kar?? da tedbirlerimizi al?yoruz. Bu ba?lamda maalesef geçenlerde bildi?iniz gibi 300 civar?nda Suriye vatanda?? s?n?r?m?z? geçip Türkiye’ye s???nm??lard?r. Dolay?s?yla tedbirler al?nd??? için yerle?tirilecekleri yere ta??nm??t?r, yerle?tirilmi?tir. Dileriz ki bu olaylar geçer geçmez, Suriye’de karde? kan? dökülmeden reform ve de?i?iklikler gerçekle?ir. Orada çok partili, demokratik ve halk?n iradesinin hükümete yans?d??? bir düzen kurulur.”

Turkish Premier Says Turkey does not Want Separation of Syria – Monday, 2 May 2011

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said, “Turkey definitely does not want separation of Syria. And Syria should not allow any attempts that could pave the way for separation.”

Erdogan told a TV program on Sunday, “we have friendly and historical relations with Syria. Following the developments in northern Africa, we felt uneasy whether those developments could trigger similar incidents in our region. During my latest visit to Damascus, I shared those concerns with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. I urged him that the emergency rule imposed in Syria for more than 40 years should be ended. President al-Assad did not voice any opposite views, but he failed to take the necessary steps. In the end, Syria has come to this point.”

“We have opened the border crossing with Syria to let Syrian people in. We cannot close the door to them. But, we have also taken a series of measures,” he said.

“Turkey definitely does not want separation of Syria. And Syria should not allow any attempts that could pave the way for separation. It is people’s freedom we are talking about. President al-Assad should assume a determined attitude in this struggle for freedom. He declared that the emergency rule was lifted, but the decision should be put into practice. People should not be killed,” he said.

Erdogan referred to corruption in Syria, “we are ready to do our utmost to assist Syria in its combat against corruption.”

“Eventually, the UN Security Council will discuss the incidents in Syria. Syria should not face another massacre like the one in Hama in 1982. I urged President al-Assad to be extremely sensitive about it. If such a massacre is carried out once again, Syria cannot deal with its consequences. Because, the international community will display a harsh reaction. And, Turkey will have to fulfill our responsibilities in such a situation,” he added.

Unrest impacts transport services between Jordan, Syria
By Muath Freij

AMMAN – Transport services between Jordan and Syria have been badly hit by the political unrest in the neighbouring country, according to owners of transport firms which ferry passengers between the two countries.

They said the number of travellers started to drop gradually since the protests started in Syria almost six weeks ago, but with the closure of the border near Ramtha transport services have almost come to a halt.

An owner of three transport offices in Amman told The Jordan Times that his business has declined by 95 per cent because of the events in Daraa, which is the main entry point to Syria.

France is calling on EU sanctions that would target Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The EU will “urgently consider further appropriate and targeted measures with the aim of achieving an immediate change of policy by the Syrian leadership,” said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Sanctions Pressure Increases on Syria
Catherine Hunter
3 May 2011, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis

Significance

The United States and EU are increasing sanctions against Syria because of its repressive crackdown on popular protests, so far looking at restrictions on individuals and specific goods, but with measures against the country’s energy sector mooted as a potential next step.

Implications

Syria is already struggling to capture necessary investment for growth, in the energy sector and outside, with further financial or trade restrictions and even indirect measures on individuals likely to compound these issues, should the current regime withstand the mounting opposition.

Outlook

Constraints on international oil availability make outright restrictions on Syrian oil exports or imports unlikely at this stage, although action that penalises energy investors or restricts funds is more likely if the Syrian regime persists with its current course.

With some 500 people now reported killed as a result of violence in Syria, the European Union (EU) and the United States are both stepping up unilateral sanctions against the regime in the absence of consensus at the United Nations, where China, Russia and Lebanon have opposed Security Council action.

The US has stepped up its existing sanctions, imposed in 2004, with an asset freeze on three individuals associated with the crackdown on protestors. Meanwhile, the EU agreed last week that it will also impose sanctions, with a list of targeted individuals to be drawn up for approval by foreign ministers on 12 May. It will stop arms shipments and direct payments to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad from a EUR40-million/year aid programme. No agreement has yet been reached within the EU on the proposed suspension of EUR1.3-billion-worth of investment by the European Investment Bank (EIB), however, which includes funding for power plants and other infrastructure. Nevertheless, discussions continue over this and other punitive economic measures, included in which is action against the country’s oil exports, which are small in terms of an international contribution but significant in terms of government revenues. Figures from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) show that total oil consumption stood at 297,900 b/d in 2009, down from 344,200 b/d in 2008 as a result of the removal of subsidies, with oil production of around 380,000 b/d, enabling some exports of products and crude.

…..International oil companies have so far said that operations remain unaffected by the protests and crackdowns. They include Shell, Total, CNPC and Gulfsands, alongside Suncor, who participate in oil and gas production through production sharing agreements with the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company. Shell, through its 65% stake in Syria Shell Petroleum Development (SSPD), has said that it has offered to relocate dependents, but that offices remain open. Total too has said that it was “vigilant”, in comments reported by Platts. Nonetheless, growing international isolation and restrictions on trade are likely to have repercussions down the line if the regime survives the current unrest, with previous rounds of sanctions tending to deter investment in the country’s energy sector, even if the terms did not explicitly include this….

Syria: Quickly Going beyond the Point of No Return
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP – NEW MEDIA RELEASE

Brussels, 3 May 2011: The situation in Syria is quickly going beyond the point of no return. By denouncing all forms of protest as sedition, and dealing with them through escalating violence, the regime is closing the door on any possible honourable exit to a deepening national crisis. With little the international community can do, the optimal outcome is one whose chances are dwindling by the day: an immediate end to the violence and a genuine national dialogue to pave the way for a transition to a representative, democratic political order.

Over the past several weeks, a number of Syrians have taken to the streets chiefly to express frustration over their worsening economic predicament, outrage at the brutality and unaccountability of the security forces, and solidarity with parts of the country that have witnessed the fiercest forms of repression.

For a time, the regime acknowledged the existence of legitimate grievances. But it has now reverted to its initial characterisation of the protests as a global conspiracy, lumping together the U.S., Israel, Syria’s Arab enemies in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Qatar in particular, former regime officials and home-grown fundamentalists. Official media tell a tale in which the security apparatus features as sole victim, persecuted by armed groups, innocent of any misdeed and striving to uphold national unity. The regime blames all casualties on its foes — agents provocateurs and, more recently, jihadis. Gruesome pictures of dead (and sometimes mutilated) bodies of security officials lie at the core of this narrative. The regime once paid tr ibute to civilian casualties as well. Ominously, no more.

Although one cannot exclude possible foreign involvement in the ongoing crisis, credible evidence points to abundant instances of excessive and indiscriminate state violence, including arbitrary arrests, torture and firing into peaceful crowds. At its core, this is a spontaneous, peaceful, popular uprising, fuelled far more by the regime’s own actions than by any putative outside interference. There are plausible reports of security forces being ambushed by unidentified armed groups, as well as of protesters firing back when attacked. But for those on the ground, there can be no doubt that the vast majority of casualties are the result of regime brutality. The regime is also fanning the flames of sectarianism, spreading rumours of impending attacks targeting specific groups. Sectarian tendencies no doubt exist in parts of the country. But the authorities’ tactics betray a determined and cynical attempt to exploit and exacerbate them.

At this point, moreover, questions are being raised both about the authorities’ ability to control and discipline the security apparatus and about the security forces’ willingness to convey to their political leadership a truthful picture of what is happening on the ground. Even at the best of times, large segments of the security services have been plagued by sectarianism, corruption, incompetence and a sense of wholesale impunity. These features are all the more likely to surface amid a crisis. To date, the leadership has evinced no readiness to impose clarity of mission, discipline or accountability on its security apparatus; there is, for example, not a single known instance of meaningful sanctions to punish unlawful or excessive use=2 0of force.

The regime’s violent, unlawful and disorderly response has only further deepened a pervasive sense of chaos. In turn, this has discredited the reforms it announced in hopes of defusing the situation and shoring up its political base. However meaningful or promising they might have been on paper, they have proven worthless in practice. ….Finally, and although it has engaged in numerous bilateral talks with local representatives, it resists convening a national dialogue, which might represent the last, slim chance for a peaceful way forward.

The regime’s hope appears to be that a massive crackdown can bring the protesters to heel. Some claim that a show of force is required to restore calm and provide the room necessary to carry out reforms. Such a course of action would entail loss of life on a massive scale. It could usher in a period of sectarian fighting with devastating consequences for Syria. It could destabilise its neighbours. And, ultimately, it is highly unlikely to work.

Even if massive repression were to succeed in the short term, any such victory would at best be pyrrhic. In the wake of the crackdown, the security services would rule supreme. President Assad’s domestic and international credibility would be shattered. Few countries would be willing to lend a hand to redress a devastated economy. Major investments, development projects and cultural ventures would find few foreign partners. Assad might well prevent forcible regime change, but the regime will have been fundamentally transformed all the same.

The only — decreasingly realistic- chance to avoid this outcome would be for the regime to take immediate steps to ….create the space necessary for representatives of the popular movement to articulate their demands and for negotiations on a real, far-reaching program of reforms to proceed. Most importantly, it would give the regime the opportunity to demonstrate it has more to offer than empty words and certain doom…..

…one should not ignore the views of many Syrians – even among those without sympathy for the regime – who continue to fear its precipitous collapse . They dread the breakup of a state whose institutions, including the military, are weak even by regional standards. They fear that sectarian dynamics or a hegemonic religious agenda could take hold. They are suspicious of possible foreign interference. And they distrust an exiled opposition that is all too reminiscent of Iraq’s. Short of the regime’s implosion, they seem persuaded that only an indigenous, negotiated solution can offer hope for a successful political transition.

Assad “Brutality” Will Lead To His Downfall – Israeli
2011-05-03

JERUSALEM (AFP)–The “brutality” of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s response to anti-government protesters will lead to the downfall of his regime, according to Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak. “I think that Assad is approaching the point where he will lose his internal legitimacy,” Barack told Israel’s Channel 10 television Monday night….I don’t think he can restore his legitimacy. “He may recover, but in my opinion it won’t be the same and he is destined to meet the same fact as the leaders of other Arab countries shaken by uprisings.”

But Barak said that “Israel has nothing to fear from Assad being replaced,” despite the concerns of many in the Jewish state, who see the Syrian leader as a known quantity whose downfall could spell violence for Israel. “The process taking place across the Middle East is very promising and inspires hope in the long term,”

Mark A. writes

First, I am by no means an expert on Syrian History or economic development, but I have a few observations.

I failed to find data that would confirm my hunch that Syria has less natural resources per capita than Turkey or China. What is clear from the numbers is that Syria has much less industry than Turkey or China. Syria’s Labor force – by occupation: agriculture: 17%; industry: 16%; services: 67% (2008 est.). Turkey’s Labor force – by occupation: agriculture: 29.5%; industry: 24.7%; services: 45.8% (2005). China’s Labor force – by occupation: agriculture: 38.1%; industry: 27.8%; services: 34.1% (2008 est.) – data from the CIA Factbook.

Syrians are poor. According to the CIA Factbook: GDP – per capita (PPP, 2010 est.): Syria: $4800; China: $7400; Turkey: $12,300. I could not find any hard data on income distribution. My impression from a business trip to China last month is that China also has an income distribution issue and there is a lot of unhappiness among the “have nots.” However the Chinese, at all economic levels I spoke to, are happier today than under Mao and especially the Cultural Revolution. Also there is a feeling that China is moving ahead so I don’t feel that people want to dismount an economic “winning horse.” Turkey is clearly winning compared to Syria in economic metrics and is still on ascendancy. Turks may be unhappy with a particular party in power but they aren’t going to revolt against the system that is “bringing home the bacon” (with apologies to my “halal” friends).

My point is any talk of Syria adopting the “Turkey model” or the “China model” needs to be underpinned by massive industrial growth. Syrian government policies do affect the wealth generated and how it is distributed. I understand why people are willing to protest against the government for “a better life.”

Political rights are not high in Syria, China (e.g. Tibet) or Turkey (e.g. Kurdish). For sure there are some Syrians who have hate for the government based on abuse they suffered in the past. It is obvious that they will protest against the government to “change the government”. To these people it is a nuance that Bashar isn’t Hafez. However I believe as long as an individual hasn’t been tortured, has some discretionary income and savings, their willingness to protest for political rights is not as high as if they were dirt poor. My point is a government that enables economic advance buys good will and tolerance from the people.

My observation is that Syrians enjoy greater minority rights and religious freedoms than the Turks or the Chinese. Of course there are some who would actually want to see the religious freedom reduced, the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood who has as its slogan “Islam is the solution” and/or Wahhabism that advocates purging Islam of “impurities”. I understand why these people would want to protest and ferment social disorder, for them this uprising is a golden opportunity not to be missed. It is a well-worn trick for a few confederates to join in a peaceful protest, provoke the security services and precipitate a violent crackdown. I suggest that those protesting for “a better life” need to watch out that their efforts don’t get high jacked by a few bent on Radical Islam.

There is another group who will benefit from a change of government, and those are the individuals who will take power in the new government. A post in the new government will be the opportunity to accumulate more money in a few months than possible to make via hard work in business or industry in a lifetime. How would one go about this? This is a classic long odds scenario. An algorithm would be to become vocal about the government, flee the country for London or Washington, spent lots of time drinking coffee in a swank cafe with friends, form a foundation or committee, get charity, oops, I mean grants and contributions, make grand plans, give interviews and hang around for something to happen. A must have is a website and/or Facebook account. If revolution never happens, it is not that hard of a life. If revolution happens, you can wait out the messy parts, safe in London or Washington. Then once the blood has stopped flowing you can make a triumphal return to take your rightful place in the government. The most difficult decision you would have had to make is what color to use as a background on your website. I suggest that those protesting for “a better life” need to watch out for individuals “helping” the revolution from a safe distance.

The case against the government is clear. Of course there are things outside the government’s control like droughts, youth bulge, actions by neighboring countries, international commodity prices. However economically, Syrian has not prospered. I believe economic improvement is more important than political rights. A Syria with freer speech and the right to vote would still be a poor country in a drought with a youth bulge and a lack of inward investment.

The case for the government (Bashar) is also clear. I believe that civil war, assassinations, ethnic cleansing and property expropriation are a real possibility. These have gone in four of Syria’s boarding countries, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, Iraq and Turkey (against the Kurdish and Armenians). I see no reason to believe “it can’t happen here”. Once started it could spiral out of control quickly. There will be no external power to stop it. It could get very bad. For those protesting “a better life” they need to be aware there is a potential downside of change.

My preferred way forward, short of putting me in charge, would be for Bashar to:

1. Strengthen the court systems. A fair and impartial court system is a prerequisite for economic growth.

2. Establish Capital Punishment for corruption. Okay, this is extreme, but China uses it to keep control.

3. Establish a cabinet for economic growth. For too long under Hafez the cabinets have been around politics and the military. Bashar hasn’t distanced himself enough from this legacy.

4. Break up the monopolies. Enable competition based on price, quality, and availability. “The Sin in Syria is Low Wages” by Ehsani October 17, 2010 here in Syria Comment is one of the best articles I have read on the subject.

5. Curb the “super wealthy families” and allow more to obtain wealth. Currently Syria is akin to a Russia model with their oligarchs where as the China model has more competition. The point is in Syria the “super wealthy” use their position to stifle competition, which is counter productive to growth.

6. Emulate Turkey for economic growth; they are the “hot” economic growth engine in the neighborhood. It is interesting that the uprising is strongest in the south, away from Turkey.

7. Cut a deal with Israel, or at a minimum present a reasonable plan and make the Israelis look incalcitrant. (The government should “leak” transcripts of the negotiation about the Golan to Wikileaks so the world can see the positions of the two countries and realize that Syria made real concessions only to have the negotiations torpedoed by the Israelis). While the Golan is an important issue, catching up with Turkey’s $12,300 GDP per capita is an order of magnitude more important.

8. Limit presidential terms. This will allow people to wait it out and not feel compelled to take to the streets.

9. Set a bold target like applying for associate membership in the European Union in 2020 (Turkey applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959).

10. Keep a tight lid on Radical Islam.

Qifa Nabki has a long and probing interview with Camille Otrakiji (Alex) on his site.

Talking about a Revolution: An Interview with Camille Otrakji

Is Syria really in the throws of a Jasmine revolution?
Produced by Shevonne Hunt, for Yhe Wire, a current affairs show in Australia.

There are more reports of the brutal crack down of protesters in the southern city of Dera’a… but with no independent media allowed in to the country… do we really understand what is happening in Syria? Featured in story: Dr Fiona Hill, anthropologist and long time visitor to Syria and Joshua Landis- Director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Syria protesters given surrender ultimatum
Agence France-Presse, Damascus, May 02, 2011

The authorities in Syria on Monday set a deadline of 15 days for people who had committed “unlawful acts” to give themselves up, as a wave of arrests was reported across the country.

The ultimatum came as activists planned fresh anti-government demonstrations following the d
eaths of dozens of people in weekend protests.

In a statement, the interior ministry told “citizens who have participated in or committed unlawful acts such as bearing arms, attacking security or spreading lies to surrender by May 15 and hand their weapons in to the competent authorities.”

It also called on Syrians to “supply information about saboteurs, terrorists and arms caches… they will be spared any subsequent legal consequences.”

A military spokesman on Monday announced the arrest of 499 people in the southern flashpoint town of Daraa, a week after thousands of troops backed by tanks swooped on the town to crush protests.

The spokesman also announced the deaths of two members of the security forces “as well as 10 terrorists.” Eight soldiers were wounded and five gunmen waiting in ambush were arrested, the military added.

According to the opposition Syrian Revolution 2011 website, security forces on Monday at dawn also entered the Kafar Nubbol area, 320 kilometres (200 miles) north of Damascus, and took over houses and arrested 26 people.

The site urged Syrians across the country to mobilise every day at noon in solidarity with Daraa and all “besieged towns.”

“We say to this regime: ‘The court of the people will judge you’,” it said.

‘Doomsday scenario’ if Syria fails
By Liz Sly, Sunday, May , Washington Post

BEIRUT — The toppling of the presidents in Tunisia and Egypt precipitated a tumult of revolutionary fervor that promises to transform the Middle East, but the potential collapse of the Syrian regime could wreak havoc of a very different kind.

In Syria, the fall of President Bashar al-Assad would unleash a cataclysm of chaos, sectarian strife and extremism that spreads far beyond its borders, threatening not only the entrenched rulers already battling to hold at bay a clamor for democratic change but also the entire balance of power in the volatile region, analysts and experts say.

With Syria’s minority Shiite Alawite government overseeing a majority Sunni population, its strategic location and its web of alliances including the radical Hamas and Hezbollah movements, regime change could look a lot more like it did in Iraq than in Egypt — and the ramifications could prove even more profound.

“If the regime collapses you will have civil war and it will spread throughout the region,” engulfing Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and beyond, said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “A collapse of the Syrian regime is a doomsday scenario for the entire Middle East.”

Many believe that is why the international community, including the United States, has offered such a tempered response to the bloodshed in Syria, the latest Arab country to be swept up in the unrest roiling the region. NATO warplanes are bombing Libya to protect civilians there, but there have been no calls even for Assad to step aside, despite an increasingly violent crackdown by the Syrian military in which at least 550 people have died. On Sunday, hundreds of people were detained as the military swept through towns and villages raiding homes in search of those who participated in recent protests, human rights groups said.

Analyst Rami Khouri describes Syria as the Middle East equivalent of a bank that’s too big to be allowed to fail. “The spillover effect would be too horrible to contemplate,” he wrote in a commentary in Beirut’s Daily Star.

“The specter of sectarian-based chaos within a post-Assad Syria that could spread to other parts of the Middle East is frightening to many people.”

Part of the problem is that so little is known about what would come next should Assad be ousted. Egypt and Tunisia took great leaps into uncertainty when their regimes fell, but in each case the army, a known quantity, asserted its independence and seized power to oversee the transition.

In Syria, the army is so tightly bound to Assad’s Alawite clan that the fall of the regime would almost certainly lead to its disintegration, setting the stage for an Iraq-style implosion in which the state collapses, a majority seeks to exact revenge on a minority and regional powers pile in to assert their own interests, said Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma, who writes the blog Syria Comment.

“Syria is the cockpit of the Middle East, and a struggle for control of Syria would be ignited,” he said.

Implications for Iraq

It is the specter of Iraq, where U.S. troops are preparing to withdraw by the end of the year, that most haunts the Obama administration as it seeks to balance demands for a firmer response to the escalating bloodshed with America’s strategic interests, analysts say.

Syria shares a long desert border with Iraq that was for many years the chief transit point for Islamic extremists seeking to join the Sunni insurgency. Only recently, officials say, had the United States noted genuine efforts on the part of the Syrians to curtail the traffic, prompting the United States to return an ambassador to Syria in January for the first time since 2005.

“For the Obama administration, the last thing they want, just at the time they’re withdrawing from Iraq, is a destabilized Syria that would lead to open season for jihadis to cross the border into Iraq,” said David Lesch, professor of Middle East history at Trinity University in Texas.

Iraq’s own Shiite government also views with alarm the upheaval across the border, mindful that the collapse of Syria’s Shiite minority government would almost certainly herald the rise of a Sunni state on its doorstep, and perhaps renewed support for Sunni insurgents still resisting the Shiite ascendancy in Baghdad.

But Iraq is by no means the only country in the region looking askance at the Syrian upheaval. Israel has expressed misgivings about the tumult threatening its chief foe, which has reliably not attempted to recover by force the occupied Golan Heights for nearly four decades — something that could change if a populist Syrian government emerged.

Neighboring Lebanon has its own Sunni-Shiite divide that has long been delineated by pro- and anti-Syrian camps. They have fought one another on many occasions in the recent past, and it is inconceivable that Syria’s troubles would not spill over the border into Lebanon, Khashan said.

To the north, Turkey is concerned about the potential aspirations of Syria’s Kurds, who could seek to assert their identity and claims to statehood as Iraq’s Kurds did after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Iran has relied on its three-decade-old alliance with Syria to project its influence into the Arab world, and has no wish to see the country controlled by Sunnis. It would almost certainly intervene to support its Alawite allies, just as it intervened in Iraq to help Shiites there. The Obama administration has already accused Iran of helping Damascus repress the revolt.

And the Persian Gulf states, though long on frosty terms with Damascus, also are nervous about the prospect of sectarian conflict, which could leach into Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. For Saudi Arabia, there is also the worry that the assertion of Sunni power in Syria could inspire restive domestic Sunni radicals to intensify their opposition to the monarchy.

Unclear opposition

Yet little is known about who the opposition in Syria is, or who might take over should the regime fall — offering another reason that governments have been so hesitant to call for Assad’s departure.

The authorities have denied entry to the news media, and even before this latest unrest, visas were issued sparingly to journalists and academics, making it hard to know exactly who is behind the sudden, and for many unexpected, outpouring of dissent.

Syria has sought to portray its opponents as armed Islamic extremists intent on sowing sectarian strife, and indeed, the last time there was significant domestic unrest in the country was in 1982, when the Syrian army ruthlessly crushed an insurrection by armed members of the Muslim Brotherhood in the town of Hama, killing between 10,000 and 40,000 people.

Syrian activists bristle at the suggestion that their movement is dominated by Islamists, and say their revolution is no different from the one in Egypt, in which ordinary people spontaneously took to the streets to vent their frustrations with corruption, nepotism and the ruthlessness of the security forces.

“I feel disgusted by how the superpowers make these calculations based on their own interests, while my own people are dying on the streets,” said Mohammed Ali Atassi, a prominent journalist and filmmaker currently in Beirut.

“The Syrians will get their freedom, and we will decide, and the Americans and Europeans will have to accept our choice,” he said. “But in any case, democratically elected governments always go for a peaceful and rational foreign policy.”

‘Overexaggerated’ fears

Some analysts say there is indeed no reason to fear a transition in Syria, which has in any case long been blamed by the West for much of the instability plaguing the region. Predictions of the chaos that would ensue if the regime in Damascus were to fall “are way overexaggerated,” said Riad Kahwaji of the Dubai-based Institute for Gulf and Near East Military Analysis.

Syria has been implicated in the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, hosts the remnants of Hussein’s Baath Party facilitating the insurgency in Iraq, and enables Iran to ship weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah through its territory. A new regime could prove far more moderate, Kahwaji said.

Yet Syria’s long history as the master manipulator of the Middle East may be another reason that the world is reluctant to alienate Assad. With its long record of sponsoring multiple, shadowy extremist groups in pursuit of foreign policy goals, the Syrian regime is also in a position to unleash considerable chaos across the region should it feel unduly threatened, analysts say.

And that, according to Khashan, the American University of Beirut professor, makes it unlikely the Syrian regime will fall. “Because, to tell the truth, no one wants it to fall, including Israel, the U.S. and the gulf states,” he said.

Arab leaders pressed to break silence on Syria
By Roula Khalaf in LondonPublished: May 1 2011 20:18

Pressure is mounting on Arab governments to take a stance against Syria’s brutal crackdown of the popular uprising at a time when western states are adopting initial sanctions to isolate the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

The Arab League played an instrumental role in facilitating the international military intervention in Libya, with its call for a no-fly zone. But while the US targets figures in the regime with sanctions and the European Union prepares similar measures, the League has issued only a general statement saying peaceful protesters in Arab states deserved “support, not bullets”….. “The silence is embarrassing,” admits one senior official in the region.

Handing Jihadis Cause
Assad says fundamentalists are behind the unrest. They’re not. But his iron fist could bring them home.
by Nibras Kazimi for Newsweek

When Syrian army tanks stormed the southern town of Daraa last week, a military spokesman explained that the assault targeted “extremist terrorist groups.” The justification fell in line with the media campaign propagated by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime ever since countrywide protests began more than a month ago: behind the demonstrations are jihadists.

The reality is anything but. In fact, the popular uprising has followed on the wider revolt that has rocked the Middle East since January. In Syria, too, it has erupted, in large part spontaneously. What little coordination that has happened has come from human-rights activists and young, Internet-savvy professionals taking their cues from the astonishingly effective model on display in Egypt. The human face of it all, as evidenced by the left-leaning intellectuals and spokespersons talking to the outside world, has been secular and democratic. If there was indeed a jihadist element active in all this—as the regime claims—any role it has played has been nothing more than marginal. Even the former long-serving leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Ali al-Bayanouni, said last week in a television interview with Alhurra that “none of the opposition groups can claim ownership of this youthful revolution.”

That is hardly the message Assad’s Damascus wants the fence-sitters to see. His regime would like to face these protests with the same coalition—urban Sunni bourgeoisie, Christians, and heterodox Muslim sects—that his father cobbled together almost 30 years ago to face down a threatening Islamic fundamentalist insurgency. That showdown culminated with the smashing of the central city of Hama during a three-week battle in February 1982, leaving tens of thousands killed. Hafez Assad’s triumph brought on nearly three decades of stability.

It is ironic that the regime has worked assiduously to erase the battle over Hama from the country’s collective memory, as it would like nothing more than what happened there to be remembered now. Today, Bashar al-Assad would like to go to battle against the very same fundamentalist bogeymen his father fought back in the 1980s. Such a specter would sufficiently scare vested interests and confessional groups within the country, bringing them around to his side. And if the enemy were just an ideological shade away from Al Qaeda, the West would not intervene, but instead would let Damascus do its dirty work.

That’s not to say there aren’t Syrian jihadists. To the contrary, actually. In the years following Hama, successive generations of Syrian fundamentalists joined the jihad; they just did so abroad. Abu Musab al-Suri became Al Qaeda’s chief tactical theorist, bouncing around the globe before he was arrested in Pakistan. The prolific London-based writer Abu Baseer al-Tartousi turned out to be one of Al Qaeda’s leading ideologues. Many young Syrians joined Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi in Afghanistan and later in Iraq, helping him rise to infamous heights—some even became Zarqawi’s top aides. There’s no doubt much of this happened with the connivance of Syrian authorities, which allowed jihadists to wreak havoc in places where their nihilism converged with the regime’s own interests in fomenting mayhem: radical Syrians abroad were able to stick a wrench in Iraqi and Lebanese affairs when it saw fit.

Damascus, meanwhile, figured the risk of blowback was minimal, or, at worst, manageable. So far it has been. Save for the attack on the U.S. Embassy in September 2006 and a car bomb at a security checkpoint two years later, news from Syria has been devoid of any jihadist-inspired headlines.

What’s most important, though, is that by invoking the threat of jihadists as cover for his crackdown on Arab Spring protesters, Assad risks drawing jihadists back into his country. Further brutality on demonstrators may look, on television screens in the West, like just another Arab strongman squashing dissent. But to militant expatriates, the scene is different: officers from the minority Alawite Shia sect beating down on a Sunni majority. The perception will drive anti-Shia jihadists back to Syria. Meanwhile, the regime will work to draw frightened minorities and urban Sunni merchants into its fold. Sectarianism, historically rife in Syria and known to anyone who has experienced life under the Assads, is the fast-burning fuel that could quickly spark what would surely be a vicious civil war.

The jihadists, should they return, would come with a fury. In past years, security sweeps have kept control over most Islamic fundamentalists who had come home to roost. Take the shadowy outfit that called itself by the same name that al-Zarqawi had adopted for himself at the onset of his jihad. It made two audio releases a few months apart in 2007 laden with threats and grandiose visions. But it couldn’t galvanize followers (perhaps there weren’t enough to be rallied in the first place). In the end it was all smoke, no fire.

But a new crop of militants has been battle-hardened by Iraq. And the arid lands of western Iraq, abutting the Syrian border, could quickly become a Waziristan-like haven from which they could restock munitions, raise funds, and train new recruits. Sunni Iraq has ejected Al Qaeda but will likely sympathize with these Syrian insurgents for sectarian and cultural reasons. After all, the people on either side of the border of the Euphrates Valley, and farther north toward the lands west of Mosul, are indistinguishable by accent, tribal affiliation, and sect.

According to a well-placed Iraqi security source, the man who seems poised to lead a potential jihad in Syria—the 43-year-old Abdel-Hakim Ali Ashayish al-Ugaili—is a native of the Syrian town of Dayr az Zawr, which lies a short drive from Iraq’s Anbar province. He is a veteran of Chechnya, Bosnia, and a bunch of other jihadist hotspots. For the last few years he’s been working between Syria and Baghdad.

These ties matter. Daraa lies on the northwestern rim of the Hawran plain, mirrored by the lands of northern Jordan in the southeast. It was in that corner of Jordan that al-Zarqawi was born and reared in a cultural ecosystem that is itself indistinguishable from Daraa’s.

What happens in Syria won’t be easily confined to its own borders. The spillover effect would mean that Jordan, where a shaky monarchy is trying to stay a step ahead of popular demonstrations, would be pulled into the chaos. Another flash point would be the Sunni enclaves in Lebanon that border Syria. Lebanon has been simmering with Sunni-Shia tensions for a while, and in the last few years Sunnis and Alawites have sporadically clashed in the north with light arms and mortar barrages. All more than enough for serious concern.

Assad has called out the jihadists as his enemy of choice. The rhetoric may not represent reality, but the jihadists would like nothing more than to oblige. Strategically, Syria would be an ideal cauldron in which militants could fan the flames of a jihad that is dying out in Iraq and Afghanistan. What Damascus doesn’t realize is that the rougher the repression on the Arab Spring, the more it is instigating a jihadist campaign of violent vengeance. It has a real chance at success. And the West, despite its reluctance, will then have to contend with multiple Fallujahs sprouting within striking distance of the Israeli-held Golan Heights.

Kazimi is the author of Syria Through Jihadist Eyes: A Perfect Enemy (Hoover Press).

From an Aleppine Reader:

My dad just traveled back to Turkey from Aleppo this AM. Here are his high level observation:
– Arab media is sensationalizing the event so much. He said during the “Friday of anger”, he stayed home fearing turmoil, but there was sooooo little problems in Halep compared to what the media reported the next day.
– His tribal business partners who are from Halep could care less about who is in power. They want the economy to prosper. He deals with three business partners who have ~8-10 kids each. So economy is all what they care about.
– He said Daraa is not representative of what is happening in Syria and that God helps us all if Deraa is representing the Syrians view point.
– the public opinion in Turkey is with a reformist Assad. They want him in power but not as is.
– He believes that Assad has no choice but to reform and he thinks it is still possible. (I am surprised with his point of view because dad was very hawkish on this issue).

The people our dad deals with are the microcosm of the Aleppo Sunni business establishment. 6 brothers own a whole block of stores in the heart of the city’s commerce hub.

Economy:

Anatomy of a failed public sector: Syrian Tire Company

A friend of mine imports tires from Turkey to Syria because tires made in Syria are inferior in quality and much too expensive. They are all made by a government subsidized and controlled company. He writes: “It has lost close to syp one billion. How the country can keep pouring good money after bad into this industry is astonishing. Rather than an urgent debate, the horror show continues. Read this article in Arabic in Watan.”

Qunfuz writes in the comment section:

Those worrying about sectarian civil war should oppose this regime as strongly as they can. The unleashing of the Alawi shabeeha, the massacres of the people, the Israeli-style house demolitions, the torture and mass arrests, the non-stop lies about Salafis – these will make sectarian war inevitable. The only chance to stop it is for these gangsters to be removed urgently. If the people can organise politically, openly, around practical issues, the sectarian poison can be treated. Certain members of the Syrian minorities are looking at Syrian Sunnis in the way Iraqi Sunnis looked at Iraqi Shia. Those people on this site and elsewhere justifying and openly encouraging the murder of innocent, freedom-loving Sunnis should examine themselves.

It’s interesting to see the defences of the regime and the debunking of opposition claims. I suppose not many other sites are doing it. But it’s very one sided indeed. For news about the crimes this traitorous regime is committing, one has to look elsewhere.

Robert Fisk should have retired years ago, but these interviews with refugees driven from Tell Kalakh are good.

Quote: “Even before the shooting started on Wednesday, the military and the plain-clothes gunmen spent some time separating Sunni Muslims from the Alawi inhabitants, telling the latter to stay in their houses – as good a way of starting a local civil war as you could find in Syria.”

“Don’t think for a second Bashar is not on our radar, and that if these abuses continue we won’t sanction him,” a White House official told Dow Jones Newswires, referring to the Syrian president by first name.

Davutoglu: Internationalization of events in Syria will “lead to undesired outcomes”… Sunday, May 01, 2011

“Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said efforts should be exerted to prevent international intervention in Syria. Speaking at a TV program, Davutoglu said such an international intervention may lead to undesired outcomes, “Syria is our neighbor and a sovereign country. We give high importance to resolution of the matter within the country itself. There is still a chance for this. This chance should not be missed.”

Asked if there would be a military intervention in Syria where clashes escalated recently and asked to comment on policy Turkey would pursue, Davutoglu said, “we should work to prevent such a possibility. International intervention may lead to undesired results particularly in such nonhomogeneous societies in sociological sense.”

A friend in Damascus writes:

For the second Friday in a row, I have seen security forces taking cover because they were apparently being shot at. I am certain the security forces are still using more violence than the protectors, but there is definitely an armed anti-government element willing to shoot, or at least to shoot back. This week it was a village south of Damascus about 6 kilometers from Kafer Suseh. I think the hard core protesters are past the point of negotiation, and I am not optimistic.

The Republican Guard Defector? The most resent video today is this one. It purports to be the confession of a Republican Guard, but seems to be faked.

One commentator writes: “The kid that’s supposed to be a defected republican guard soldier looks nothing like that.. he looks like a southern Syrian in army uniform. I’m sure Syrian army experts can easily figure this out.. he did not name his unit, his commanders, his comrades or any other sensitive information to help support his claim.”

Here is a video explaining why the supposed defector is wearing the wrong uniform, wrong badges, wrong hair, wrong rings, and wrong Syrian identity card and could not be a Republican Guard.

An exchange between Hisam Melhem and Michael Young on twitter:

“Only way to influence merchant class in Damascus & Allepo 2 turn against Bashar is for US & EU to impose sanctions a la Iran”

Rain has fallen in Eastern Syria in amounts not seen for 10 years. But the downfall has caused some flooding, reported below.

?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? 50 – 90% ???? ??????? ??????? ????????? ?? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? ??????? ???????? ??736 ???? ????? ?????? ?175 ???? ?????? ??????.

?????? ????? ???????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???? 205 ??????? ????? ????? 100%? ?592 ??????? ????? ?????? ?131 ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? 100%

Elie responds to this news report:

Syria’s wheat production in 2008 was some 2.5 million tons. Syria is also accustomed to sharp fluctuations in wheat production–in 2007, it was 4.5 million tons. So, 736 tons of wheat lost to flooding is minuscule.

In terms of surface, the figures are also tiny. To put 592 hectares of irrigated wheat in perspective, Syria’s irrigated wheat surface is some 700,000 hectares, of which 250,000 hectares are in the Hasake area. Likewise, cotton’s damage of 205 hectares is minuscule–Syria’s cotton area is some 250,000 hectares. The reported figures are so tiny, they are meaningless.

Syrian Petition for Political Change: A Missed Opportunity
By Reinoud Leenders at Jadaliyya

30 April 2011. Given the atrocities currently committed in Syria and the spectacularly bad press this generates for the regime, one would think that issuing an effective petition calling for political change in this country would be an easy task. All such a petition needs to do is to jump on the bandwagon of rapidly mounting protests and express the deeply felt anger across large sections of the Syrian population. In addition, any serious public appeal would demonstrate that there is a viable alternative to the regime; by way of clever proposals for political change and in reference to an impressive list of signatories from Syria’s brightest and most respected minds. Yet somehow the initiators of the ‘National Initiative for Change’ managed to do none of all this….

‘We want jobs and stability not radical change’
Published on 1 May 2011

EYEWITNESS Syrian people are crying out for reforms that the current regime has failed to deliver, but do not want the West involved by Trevor Royle, Diplomatic Editor

Sitting in a roadside café outside the city of Homs, Yusuf was clear what he and many young, educated Syrians want.

“We’re not looking for radical change,” he said. “We’re looking for worthwhile jobs and stability – and we want the government to listen to what we’re saying.”

Yusuf is not his real name – the security forces take reprisals against those who want awkward facts to be known – but the location is real. A fortnight ago I was following the route taken by Allied forces in the spring of 1941 as they swept into Syria to unseat the Vichy French administration. Seventy years later, regime change was again on people’s minds – but this time the Syrians intend to do it themselves. “We don’t want the West to get involved, so stay away,” said Yusuf and his friends.

Homs and the nearby city of Hama were on the point of joining forces to protest against the policies of the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad, and across the country the tension was palpable as Syria faced up to the reality of the Arab Spring. Like other countries in the region, Syria is hovering on the brink of revolution as thousands of people demand change. It has been a slow-burning fuse. Six weeks ago the southern town of Daraa was racked by political protests when people took to the streets to demonstrate against the lack of basic freedoms. As the violence escalated and spread to other centres, including the capital Damascus, the government responded with force. An estimated 500 people have been killed.

Mark Ellison – An American in Syria describes the atmosphere in Damascus
Thoughts on Syria

A typical day in Damascus at a time when Syria is apparently gripped by chaotic bloody turmoil and descending quickly into sectarian civil war… or something.

What is going on in Syria?

Some have asked me what it’s like to be witnessing history — I’d say so far we haven’t exactly witnessed history, but just a lot of men driving around their cars honking horns and waving photos of the president. This is to say, the pro-government movement is a lot more vocal in Damascus, and as a result the security situation there is as stable as always. Same in Aleppo. The vast majority of Syrians — 98% by some estimates, if we believe only 400,000 or so have participated in protests — do not want to face the unknown, the uncertainty, the potential chaos that an overthrow of the government might entail.

One thing to me is clear: there is not yet a strong, uniform, nationwide movement striving for the downfall of the Assad government. Most of the anger and frustration expressed by normal Syrians is because of economic hardship, not because they are supercharged over the need for democracy, etc. The violence in Daraa was an isolated incident, but was so severe that it sparked anger not only there but in a number of Syrian cities. Syrians only have to look to neighboring Lebanon and Iraq to see what sectarian conflict can bring about — civil war — and no Syrian wants civil war. They don’t want to see their country destroyed……

U.S. Moves Cautiously Against Syrian Leaders
By MARK LANDLER
Published: April 29, 2011

…President Obama has not demanded that President Bashar al-Assad resign, and he has not considered military action. Instead, on Friday, the White House took a step that most experts agree will have a modest impact: announcing focused sanctions against three senior officials, including a brother and a cousin of Mr. Assad.

The divergent American responses illustrate the starkly different calculations the United States faces in these countries. For all the parallels to Libya, Mr. Assad is much less isolated internationally than the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. He commands a more capable army, which experts say is unlikely to turn on him, as the military in Egypt did on President Hosni Mubarak. And the ripple effects of Mr. Assad’s ouster would be both wider and more unpredictable than in the case of Colonel Qaddafi. ….

President Barack Obama ordered a freeze on U.S. assets and other sanctions against three Syrian officials, including Assad’s brother, Mahir al-Assad, the brigade commander of the Syrian Army’s 4th Armored Division, and a cousin, Atif Najib, who was head of the Political Security Directorate for Daraa Province last month when demonstrators were killed by security forces. Ali Mamlouk, head of intelligence…

The sanctions also target the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate and the Quds Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for providing “material support” for the Syrian government’s crackdown on demonstrators.

The measures are aimed at forcing Assad’s government to end the violence against civilians immediately, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Washington yesterday.

The U.S. wants to convince the regime that “its behavior and actions are going to be held to account and they must begin taking steps to respond to the legitimate aspirations” of the Syrian people, Clinton said, adding that the crackdown on protesters is “absolutely deplorable.”

See the “Voting results of Special Session resolution on Syria“. See also this link to the text of the statement plus the text of an earlier statement that wasn’t able to get a majority vote.

Regional implications of the recent unrest in Syria by DG.

….The widespread idea that the fall of Assad would mean the end of Syria’s alliance with Iran and various resistance groups seems wrong-headed to me. Syria’s place in the alliance is not about Baathist ideology but all about the on-going Israeli occupation of the Golan. The fall of Assad is not going to magically solve the Golan problem. It seems to me highly unlikely that any successor regime would be able to simply give up on regaining the territory and hope to stay in power very long; while there obviously isn’t much in the way of opinion poll data to support this, I think the general understanding is that popular Syrian desire to regain the territory remains strong. A successor regime would likely be dominated by Sunnis rather than Alawites and might be less inclined to maintain an alliance with Shiite Iran on sectarian grounds but this is not a serious long-term obstacle to the alliance; Hamas and IJ after all are hardline Sunni groups. As long as Syria remains in serious dispute with Israel over the territory, it has a strong incentive to try to bolster its strategic position by aligning itself with other anti-Israeli forces in the region.

ELBARADEI IN THE FT

ElBaradei’s manner is relaxed and genial. As we talk, though, it becomes clear he is anything but relaxed about the situation in Egypt. He is distressed by a situation that he describes as a “political and constitutional mess”. The ruling military council that took over as an interim government after the fall of Mubarak has announced it is planning to hold parliamentary and then presidential elections before the end of the year. But the electoral rules and the balance of power between president and parliament have yet to be decided. ElBaradei has confirmed he is running for the presidency but seems baffled by the situation he finds himself in. “How can you run for president if you don’t know the job description?” he asks, half-smiling, half-shrugging.

I ask why the military are in such a hurry. “I’ve no idea. I think they have a political hot potato and they just want to get rid of it.” But the atmosphere of uncertainty and a sharp deterioration in the economy is leading to a general feeling of insecurity. “People are buying guns to protect themselves”, says ElBaradei, grimacing. He also fears that the move to early elections will be bad for the liberal groups that drove the Egyptian revolution forward. “It will give an advantage to the most organised groups, which is, basically, the Muslim Brotherhood.”

I pull a face at the mention of a group that wants to turn Egypt into an Islamic state but ElBaradei says, “I’m not worried so much about the Muslim Brothers as about the Salafis,” referring to ultra-fundamentalist, Saudi-influenced, Islamist groups, many of whom are now organising political parties. “Some of them, well, there is no common ground with them. They want a completely theocratic state. One of their spokesmen said the other day that democracy is against Islam, and the ultimate authority should be the Koran as, of course, interpreted by him.” So how powerful are the Salifis? “That is something I don’t know … I’m told they have a lot of influence over the illiterates.” This is not a particularly comforting thought since, as ElBaradei points out, one-third of Egypt’s population of 80m is illiterate….

ElBaradei is as aware of Egypt’s growing cultural conservatism as he is of its poverty. With regret, he says, “When I went to Cairo University in the 1960s, there was not a single woman with a headscarf; right now I’m told it’s, maybe, 80 per cent. The country has become a lot more conservative.”….

Hamas says its politburo to remain in Syria
2011-04-30 10:39:16.146 GMT

GAZA, Apr 30, 2011 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Islamic Hamas movement said Saturday that its politburo will remain in Syria, denying reports that Damascus asked its exiled leaders to leave.

Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar
by As’ad AbuKhalil:

It is clear that Qatar (as is clear from this Qatari government daily) is promoting the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as the alternative to the regime.

Syrian Businessman Becomes Magnet for Anger and Dissent

MB Statement on Incidents in Syria
By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: April 30, 2011

….Egypt had Ahmed Ezz, the steel magnate who favored tight Italian suits (and now faces trial in white prison garb). In Tunisia, it was Leila Traboulsi, the hairdresser who became the president’s wife, then a symbol of the extravagance of the ruling family. Mr. Makhlouf, 41, is Syria’s version, a man at the intersection of family privilege, clan loyalty, growing avarice and, perhaps most dangerously, the yawning disconnect between ruler and ruled that already reshaped authoritarian Syria even before the protests. ….

??????>>???????: ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ?????????.. ?????? ?????? ???????? ?? ??? ??????? ?????

30 ????? , 2011

????-????

???? ??????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ????? ????????? ???????? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ??:

???? ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????.

???? ??????? ????????? ????????? ??????????.

???? ????? ??????? ?????? ????? ???????.

Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600 billion in Turkey’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the next 20 years, said the chief executive of the National Commercial Bank.

Abdul Kareem Abu Alnasr, whose bank is the biggest Saudi lender, said that his country’s exports represent about 76 percent of the total GCC exports to Turkey, dubbing the Anatolian country as an important trade partner.

He said trade between the two has reached $5.5 billion in 2008 up from $1.3 billion in 2002 boosted by the demographic of the two countries, as both have two-thirds of their populations below the age of 30.
Turkey’s GDP for the year 2015 is expected to be $1 trillion, which would make it the 17th biggest economy worldwide, while the Saudi GDP will be the 19th at roughly $700 billion. (If oil prices stay high, then Saudi Arabia’s GDP is likely to rise.)

Because of high oil prices Mr. Alnasr said that Saudi Arabia managed to lower its debt of 80 percent of its GDP in 2003 to 15 percent in 2010.

Saudi Arabia, like many of Gulf countries, needs to deal with the issue of food security, and its investment in Turkey’s agriculture and manufacturing is set to increase, Mr. Alnasr said.

A Comment from a friend on the article about Saudi investment in Turkey:

Syria will not get 20% of that. It will not do so because it has not got its act together. It only pays lip service to wanting investments. It has done nothing to back it up. When a Saudi businessman took the government to task during a conference in Damascus two years ago, many laughed it off. Rather than take what the man said seriously, they did nothing. There is no rule of law that can protect the property rights of international business investors. There is too much red tape and corruption. This is why Syria ranks very low in the ease of doing business surveys. Sadly, it is for a very good reason. A friend of mine advised the government on this survey. He works for a consulting group that has helped KSA to move up the ranks in the same survey. When he presented the bill to the government, the ex PM shot it down. It was a contract worth $1mm a year for 3 years. No one in the country was willing to sponsor the effort. It died down. when a country wants to attract $75 billion over 5 years, it must be willing to spend $3-4 million to help its image and rankings. Syria does not see it that way. As a result we are makanak raweh….Turkey is booming. We are watching and have the gear in reverse.

TED KOPPEL: THE ARAB SPRING AND U.S. POLICY: THE VIEW FROM JERUSALEM
By Ted Koppel: The Wallstreet Journal April 29, 2011

Israeli officials want a public commitment from Washington to protect the Saudi regime should it come under threat..

Blood ties at heart of Syria regime
IAN BLACK – Guardian News & Media
30 April 2011

Syrie: Les minorités ont peur
Damas, Talal el-Atrache
Sunday, May 01, 2011

Alors que les manifestations se propagent graduellement en Syrie, les minorités religieuses se cantonnent dans le domaine politique, évitant de prendre part à ce soulèvement sans précédent dans l’histoire moderne du pays. Chrétiens, druzes et alaouites, ismaéliens et chiites adhèrent aux revendications démocratiques, tout en préconisant une solution politique à travers un dialogue national. Entre-temps, la peur s’installe.

Les réformes annoncées par le président Bachar el-Assad n’ont pas suffi à apaiser les tensions et à convaincre les contestataires. Une partie des manifestants qui exigeaient des réformes démocratiques ont poussé d’un cran leurs revendications et appellent désormais à la chute du régime. Le pouvoir, pour sa part, semble déterminé à mater par la force ce soulèvement populaire, derrière lequel il voit la main des islamistes. Depuis une semaine, l’armée et les troupes d’élite de la Garde républicaine érigent des barrages militaires sur les principaux axes routiers du pays et à l’entrée de chaque ville. Les régions les plus concernées par le soulèvement, notamment la province de Deraa, les villes de Banias et de Homs, ainsi que la banlieue nord de Damas sont investies par l’armée. Des milliers de soldats appuyés par des chars passent à l’offensive et ratissent les principaux centres de contestation. Les mosquées ainsi que les maisons sont fouillées, des centaines de personnes sont arrêtées, dont les membres des comités qui organisent les manifestations.

La population, pour sa part, semble divisée. Si la nécessité de réformer de fond en comble le système politique fait l’unanimité des Syriens, il ne va pas de même en ce qui a trait aux manifestations, qui restent centrées en grande partie autour des mosquées et culminent après les prières et les sermons du vendredi. Dans ce pays régi par une main de fer, les mosquées représentent pour les uns le seul lieu de rassemblement et un efficace instrument de mobilisation. Pour les autres, il s’agit d’un lieu de culte sélectif, qui ne peut rassembler les différentes composantes de la population. Certains intellectuels, à l’instar du poète Adonis, ont été violemment critiqués pour avoir soulevé ce point. Et pourtant, cinq semaines après le début du mouvement populaire, les manifestants n’ont toujours pas réussi à entraîner les minorités religieuses, qui représentent près de 30% de la population syrienne.

Ces minorités, notamment alaouites, chrétiennes, druzes, ismaéliennes et chiites, ne sont pas descendues dans la rue, à quelques exceptions près. Plusieurs facteurs expliquent leurs réticences, notamment l’absence de toute alternative capable de maintenir l’ordre et de garantir l’unité du pays en cas de renversement du régime, ainsi que la crainte d’un dérapage vers un conflit inter-religieux instrumentalisé par les puissances régionales. Ces inquiétudes varient d’une communauté à l’autre, selon leur spécificité et leur situation sociopolitique…..

The following are two takes on the revolution:

The first is by “Australians for Syria”. When I asked one of the leaders if a majority of members were Christian, I got this answer:

That is probably a correct assumption.  I say probably because I don’t conclusively know that. At the initial meeting we held there were Christians, Alawites, Sunnis and Shiites. All were representatives of various community groups and organisations that believe in a secular society. Naturally in that setting you don’t always know (and its a bit of a taboo to ask) about a persons religion.

My reply to him:

Many thanks, Sami. The reason I ask is that I have a similar note from a Sunni friend who assures me that most of his Sunni friends are now arguing for a revolution. He says they believe a revolution and possible civil war is inevitable and perhaps necessary – even better than going on like this. They don’t mind greater MB participation in society.

Most non-Sunnis I know, do not want greater MB participation and fear civil war. Christians are particularly concerned and believe that the loss of Syria would be the final straw that would ignite a big exodus fromt the region. Best, Joshua

Australians for Syria call for a peaceful resolution to protests

In light of the recent troubles in Syria, a group of Australians of Syrian background have founded “Australians for Syria”, a collective tasked with voicing their views on the current issues in their country of origin. Australians for Syria:

1. Support all legitimate calls for political reform in Syria;
2. Support the abolition of the Emergency Law and call for a speedy implementation of laws allowing political parties to freely operate in the country;
3. Condemn the use of force to quell peaceful political protest;
4. Offer condolences to the families of all those who have lost their lives- civilians, protestors and security personal alike;
5. Furthermore, Australians for Syria express the following grave concerns:
   1. The protests appear to be increasingly sectarian. Reports from Syria suggest that what began as protests for reform have now disintegrated into calls for regime change motivated by sectarian divides and fuelled by radicals and extremists. Australians for Syria distinguish between legitimate calls for reform and sectarian riots;
   2. Some protestors have become violent. Syrian police, security personal and civilians belonging to minority groups have been deliberately targeted. There have been reported cases of revenge killings, ambushes and reprisals. Political freedoms cannot be achieved by violent means nor by riots aimed at causing property damage to public buildings.
   3. Sectarian violence may lead to a civil war in Syria and the disintegration of the Syrian state. Australians for Syria oppose any outcome in Syria that leads to the break-up of the state and its secular identity. Calls for the establishment of a “Syrian Emirate” are hereby condemned as such views are a reflection of Islamic extremism.
6. In light of the above concerns and with a view to resolving the troubles in the country, Australians for Syria call on the Syrian people to:
   1. Allow the new Syrian cabinet an opportunity to implement the promised reforms;
   2. Distance themselves from radicals and extremists and not partake in violent street protests;
   3. Reject calls for regime change. Syrians are urged to consider the full ramifications of an overthrow of the regime and whether it is in the best interests of the country in light of the likelihood of sectarian violence.
7. Australians for Syria ask that the Australian media, political leaders and fellow citizens give serious thought to the above concerns when reporting, making decisions or discussing the events in Syria.

More information about Australians for Syria

Australians for Syria is comprised of members of political groups, community organisations, media organisations, charities and academics. They are Australians of various backgrounds who have been motivated to speak out in light of the troubles affecting Syria. For more details regarding any of the points raised please contact George Salloum on 0403 327 346, email [email protected] or search “Australians for Syria” on facebook.

A Sunni View from a friend from Homs: he writes:

A friend is trying to convince me that the revolution is good. Soooo many secular Muslims are thinking the same way. Here is what he said about the faking of the video confession of the Republican Guard, which has been circulating today. Many secular Muslims have been flipping to support revolution, so many. Here is the message that my friend sent:

If we know that most of what is being told by the nizam and Syrian media are BS why don’t we expect and accept the opposition would also lie. At the end of the day every movement has someone behind it and I think we are witnessing the media war at this stage. If it takes some lies to motivate the  poor and needy so be it.

More than 40 years shall not be acceptable. It is not acceptable for us to believe that only Assad and his followers would give us stability. If the Muslim Brothers are to rule, so be it. They would close bars and etc., but they can’t destroy the country more than it has already been destroyed.

We could anticipate destruction, instability, and civil war. It will not last for more than few years before the Syrian people finally come around. Destruction of buildings and infrastructure will take a few years to be rebuilt (Beirut is an example), but the destruction of social and educational values that has already taken place over the last forty years will take generations to rebuild. Syrian must start now.

Let Syria erupt and maybe in 6-10 years people there will learn how to become civilized.

Since last Tuesday, the central bank has started asking for more paper work and reasons why you need the 10k. Hours later the Syrian pound dropped from 49 to 52 to a dollar and then to 54 as people speculated that the Central Bank would not support the currency strongly. Someone did intervene at 54 and brought it down to 52.5. I think the risks are still high. 80 percent of all bank deposists are in syp. The chances of more money moving in dollars is large. The central bank must allow full and easy convertability so money stays in country. Like lebanon, you should be allowed to go from syp to dollars anytime. This way, money stays inside syrian banking system. Currently you need to go to the black market which ends up sending your dollars to swiss or leabanese banks. Another silly policy.

A Syrian friend writes:

My brother in law has fled Syria for good to Thailand (of all places),. He said he exchanged $10,000 on Thursday from the Masraf Tijari. He bought the rest at 53 from the black market. He left Syria with his wife yesterday. He sold his car on Wednesday. Why Thailand?  He has his best friend who lives there and has a shipping business.  So he sold everything in Syria and wants to join him in Thailand.  Dumb move?  Maybe, but he said he has now divorced Syria for good.

Life is short.  The chances of it becoming a failed state exceed that of it being a vibrant country. If western embassies opened their immigration doors, I doubt many young Syrians would remain in the country.

Last week it was announced on Syrian TV that the cap is now 5000! Total of 29 money exchange houses have been imprisoned for quoting syp exchange rates different than central bank rates.

Head of journalist union in Syria: number of casualties from the military/police/security as of today exceeded 90.

“Syrian Jews back al-Assad” according to Israeli newspapers Jpost

Rami Makhlouf on the “bad” people who are speculating on the Syrian Pound

??? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???: ???????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??????? ????????? ???? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ??????: ????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ?? ??????. ?????: ??? ????? ???????? ???????? ??? ????????? ? ??? ???? ????? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????? ???????? ????? ???????? ??? ?? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ?? ?? ?????? ???? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ?????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????.

This following analysis was sent to me by an outraged reader: (This is not my analysis)

I am dismayed by the analysis provided by the anonymous retired diplomat. Below is my response to his argument that only 2% are involved in the protests.   By examining many youtube videos of the Syrian protesters, one will conclude the following

1.      Most  protesters are aged between 18-40 2.     95% of protesters are men.

For the total number of protesters, I am going to use the same estimate provided by the anonymous retired diplomat, i.e. 400,000 protesters. ·

We can safely assume that for each male protester, a female relative of the same age group (wife, sister…) stayed home yet shared the same sentiment of her male relative ( I am going to call them passive female protesters). This makes the number of protesters (active & passive) 780,000.

Its probably safe to assume that the age group (18-40) constitute 35% of the population. This bring the total number of ( Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families) to 2,250,000… ·

Given the tremendous risk of being shot dead during demonstrations. It is safe to assume that only a % of the disgruntled population would actually go out and protest.  I will estimate that only 3 out of each 10 disgruntled male citizens came out to the streets.  This brings the total number of Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families+ scared-to-protest to 7,500,000.

Most protesters are sunni Muslims. Sunni Muslims are 70% of the population, this comes to be 16, 310,000. This means that 46% of sunnis are involved in the protests (active, passive, and scared)

Some people have been inflating the population of Damascus, it is only 1.64 millions. ( see tables) ·         Aleppo and Damascus (total of 4 millions inhabitants) have not yet participated in the demonstrations.

I have developed the utmost respect to the “original” Syrian opposition. People like Michel Kilo, Bassam Alkadi and a long list of others who have been imprisoned for years because they demanded reforms in Syria are now the only sane voices out there requesting calm. If the regime survives it should replace Hafez and Basel’s statues that were torn down around the country with statues for people like Kilo and AlKadi. They are investing all the credibility they have accumulated over the years to keep the country out of civil war. Watch this interview in Arabic.

Aleppo: Fadi writes about why Aleppo has been quite:

I think you have to add to it that Aleppo (like Damascus) has witnessed more openness during the last few years. Aleppo benefited the most from the openness with Turkey, both economically and culturally. It was a real window for breathing. The sectarian and religious tensions that exist in places like Banias and Latakia does not exist in Aleppo. Also, Bashar personally is very much liked in Aleppo. He roams the souks when there. Over the past years he developed a habit of staying in Aleppo frequently and meets with locals. He smartly had a hands on dealing with Aleppo.

These are all personal observations.

Aleppo by Karim:

There were several small protests around Aleppo in the last 10 days. These protests were allowed to proceed by security forces without interference. However, every single time, after 15 minutes or less from startup, a group of c…ivilians would arrive in trucks and buses outnumbering the demonstrators by around 5 times. This new group would start shouting pro regime slogans and would engage the original demonstrators brutally. The Security forces would eventually interfere taking the anti-regime demonstrators to the security stations for questioning. After 2 days or so of questioning most of them are released.

Rumors have it that these people are thugs brought up to deal with the demonstrators. No such thugs were captured so no one can confirm these rumors. Such stories are the main source of fear holding pro-reform demonstrators from gathering larger numbers.

On another note, Syrians have really outgrown sectarian ideas in the last 5-6 years. You have not been living here during this time and it is remarkable how much Syrians have become mature with regard to sectarianism. I have become very proud of the average Aleppean refusal to see things from this narrow angle. The people have grown in an impressive way.

Aleppo: Another person

Hope things are well; just wanted to say I fully concur with Karim’s recent comment on your facebook post, both regarding the small demonstrations in Aleppo and the surprisingly mature attitudes with regards to sectarianism here in the last years.

Two nights ago according to some friends there was another small demonstration right in Aziziye, a very central Christian/mixed upper middle class shopping district here in Aleppo, so not somewhere off in the ‘burbs like in Douma or Telbiseh. There again they brought in party goons in greater numbers to shout down and begin beating up demonstrators.

Aleppo continues to be calm, and there is a apparently a large pro-regime demonstration, yawm Bashar or something, being organized Friday tomorrow. People in the rest of the country are beginning to make jokes about Aleppo’s lack of action; a friend of a friend was

reportedly offered by a business contact from out of town to send him diapers, since Aleppines are so scared of demonstrating; someone else reported that some Aleppines travelling to Latakia were suddenly told there was no more room at the hotel when asked where they were from.

Regardless of whether it’s factually true or not, it does say something about the perception/self-perception of the people of Aleppo in the current situation. The people we talk with remain overwhelmingly dismissive of the protest movement; my taxi driver yesterday was the first to evoke the crackdown of 1980 (2000 dead, HRW figure).

Many foreigners have now left Aleppo, as their embassies or more specifically the governmental aid organizations they work for (and that is a high proportion of the foreigners who wind up in Aleppo) order them to leave by this Friday. Some have indicated how difficult it is to uproot their entire family, pull the kids out of school and pack on three days’ notice, but they are threatened with being fired and worse if they do not comply. Needless to say it’s not all countries who are doing this; it’s sanctions before the letter on the part of some. One of the International schools here is taking license to simply stop functioning 2 weeks earlier this spring. Small problems compared to elsewhere in the country, of course, but just goes to show that some foreign institutions, much like parts of the media, are positively anticipating the souring of the mood here.

Louai:

‘More than 230 ruling Baath members resign in Syria’ if Syria get back in its feet soon ,and it will . those people will be regreting ,reason is they are gambling that the Baath party is finishing soon however its not. This kind of people who resign and acuse the government of all the killing where more that 60 police officers and military men died whilst this ‘peaceful ‘demonstrators are demonstrating. Wouldn’t you ask your self how all those people dyed ?who shoot at them if its only a peaceful demonstrations?

I am a member of the Baath Party and as many others i have joined the party to get some privilege (was too young that time and i thought every one is in the party whilst they are 18 any way) but the party has nothing to do with all what is happening ,its the state fighting against terrorism.

George:

No question that the big cities haven seen more of the economic cake than the smaller towns and villages. In that sense, economics again is the main factor. Outside of aleppo and damascus it has an absolute disaster when it comes to an economic trickle down. In his opinion, Aleppo had suffered greatly during the MB uprising. The people of Aleppo went through hell during that period. They have no appetite for an encore.

Homs: From [A person from Homs]

I also talked to many of my relatives from Homs.  The people I talked to are all liberal and open minded. The amount of anger in Homs against the regime is massive.  Really massive. There are many low life, regime crony, Alawites in Homs that ran havoc in the city – including Bashar’s personal friend, the deposed Governor.  A certified crook whose abuses have reached the ears of everyone.  Yet Bashar stuck to him.

Then there is the First Lady’s family, who built for themselves another Makhloof empire.

My cousin was telling me how in Homs, and during Ramadan, you go to get a piece of paper from the Amn, and they all [being Alawites] are smoking and drinking tea , to make sure they annoy the public.

To say that the resentment for the regime in Homs is huge is an understatement. I don’t like the Islamists one bit, but I can only blame the regime for getting us here from there.

Also related to Homs and its anger: Guess what the current interior minister used to be? He was the deputy to Ghazi Kanaan in Homs [He graduated from military college in 1965 and rose to become head of intelligence for the central region. ] They both ran Homs as their own farm.  Homsis have legends about their abuses during the old days when Kanaan was the head of intelligence in Homs and how the current interior minister, a certified thug and a rapist, did not spare a living sole from abuse.

And when Kanaan was given Lebanon to run [between 1982 and 2002 he headed the security and intelligence branch in Beirut], his deputy, ran amok even more. So for Bashar to appoint him as the Minister of Interior was a slap in the face. How much more stupid can the regime get?  I dunno.

But I still cannot fathom the ideas of religious Homsis taking over anything.  They need to be crushed.  They are as criminal.

Hama

On our last evening in Hama some people warned us, right in the tourist district, to take the kids indoors and consider leaving town because a demonstration was happening near the citadel and would lead to trouble. We had actually just been at the citadel and hadn’t seen anything, so it can’t have been huge, but upon returning to the main square with the clock tower we saw several unmarked buses with guys in civil clothes and one clearly carrying a stick. I don’t think much actually happened that night, though the streets downtown were unusually empty (I moved our car into a back alley just to be safe!), but this seems to be a pattern which is being repeated in several cities. Come to think of it, the people (unusually suspicious and unfriendly) we had met in some Alawi villages around Masyaf that day had been talking in the same terms, that we should leave Hama and go back to Damascus. Maybe they already knew where they would be on duty that night…?

just to keep you updated, is my last friday here: Things are extremly calm, though today for the first time people from the old mosque in the Christian quarter (I forgot the name, it is next to the monastery) walked into the city and shouted: Brh, Bdam, Nadfik ja Deraa. I cannot verify the number, but from the shouts it could not have been much more than 40-50.

Since 4 p.m. traffic is normal in town, so there seems to be no “Hama is joining the protest”, otherwise things would have been different. Last friday we felt some tension in the city, but this friday life is back to normal, I might be wrong and missed some events, thus will try to get some more information and let you know.

Today I was really shocked by the German news which describe Syria to be in a state of complete war, with refugees, millions of demonstrators (I hate the sentence “non-confirmed information by eyewitness” or “cannot be verified”, I mean, guys, if you cannot verify information, do not publish them).

Am I living in a Syrian oasis? I really have a good time in Hama, Hama in spring is beautiful and green, people play backgammon in the parks (and at the same time AlJazeera reports protests and killings in Hama, how ridicoulous!), I do not have the feeling things are worsening at all. On the contrary, as shop owners loose income through protests (The traffic between Hama and Homs is limited and customers do not buy as before the crisis), people just want the protests to stop.

What are the ground comments you get from other towns?

????? ??????? ???????? ??? ???? ????? ??????? ???????

?? ??? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ???????

1- ????? ?????????? ???????? ?? ????? ?????? ????????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ??? ????????? ?? ???? ???? “?????? ?? ?????? ????????”? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ?? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??

2- ?? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ???? ???????? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ??????????? ?????? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????????? ?????????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? ???????? ???? ???????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ????????.

A Friend writes:

I think they are ready for the national dialogue now. I was watching Syrian TV minutes ago and 2 MP said the following:

MP Mohammad Habash: “The era of the mukhabarat in Syria is OVER. I know that they don’t like me saying this but I don’t care”

MP Ghaboush: “I call for a national dialogue. It should start immediately”

Again this was on State TV!!

Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime
Peter Harling in Foreign Policy

Seen from Damascus, the crisis that is gripping Syria is fast approaching crunch-time. The regime appears to have stopped pretending it can offer a way out. More than ever, it portrays the confrontation as a war waged against a multifaceted foreign enemy which it blames for all casualties. This narrative, which informs the security services’ brutal response to protests, has cost the authorities the decisive battle for perceptions abroad, at home, and even in central Damascus — a rare bubble of relative calm that has now entered into a state of utter confusion.

The primary benefit of observing events from the Syrian capital is to measure just how unreliable all sources of information have become. Local media tell a tale of accusations and denials in which, incredibly, security services are the sole victims, persecuted by armed gangs. Where the regime initially acknowledged civilian martyrs and sought to differentiate between legitimate grievances and what it characterized as sedition, such efforts have come to an end.

For its part, the foreign media, denied access by the regime, relies virtually exclusively on material produced by on-the-ground protesters, the dependability of which has proven uneven. The novel phenomenon of “eye-witnesses” further blurs the picture. Outside observers have sought to counter the state-imposed blackout by recruiting correspondents, often haphazardly, flooding the country with satellite phones and modems. Several cases of false testimonies have cast doubts on such procedures but, for lack of an alternative, they largely continue to shape coverage of events.

Under the circumstances, Damascenes have but one option: to work the phones, calling relatives, friends, and colleagues throughout the country in a desperate attempt to form their own opinion. They hear and tell stories that are self-contradictory. Some tend to confirm the existence of armed agents provocateurs; many others credibly blame the regime for the bulk of the violence. Instances of sectarian polarization surface in some areas, while examples of cross-community solidarity burgeon in others. Neighbors often provide inconsistent accounts while people who share socio-economic backgrounds react to similar events in contrasting ways.

Such chaos is inherent in times of crisis, but it also is a reflection of the profound mistrust between citizens and their state, which has failed to offer any point of reference around which undecided Syrians could rally. To the contrary: the regime has systematically fostered a sense of bewilderment and anxiety. Most damaging of all has been the constant contradiction between its words and deeds.

Regime assertions notwithstanding, evidence regarding excessive use of force by security forces in circumstances that cannot plausibly be described as representing an immediate threat is piling up. Given the extraordinary deployment of forces and security lockdown in and around the capital last weekend, it is simply impossible to imagine that so-called agitators could be behind the bloodshed. Even where the regime’s responsibility in both the onset and escalation of confrontation is beyond doubt, as in the southern city of Deraa, the regime feels the need to undertake an endless “investigation” before holding anyone accountable, even as arbitrary arrests remain the norm when dealing with protesters.

On the political front, the regime has lifted the emergency law but allows security services to conduct business as usual, illustrating how irrelevant the concept of legality was in the first place. It authorizes demonstrations while stating they are no longer needed and labeling them as seditious. It speaks of reforming the media and, in the same breath, fires an oh-so-loyal editor-in-chief for straying from the official line. It insists on ignoring the most outrageous symbols of corruption. It promises a multi-party law even as it proves how little power is vested in civilian institutions. Finally, and although it has engaged in numerous bilateral talks with local representatives, it resists convening a national dialogue, which might offer a slim chance of finding an inclusive and credible way forward.

In more parts of the country than one can count, protesters now face only the most brutal, repressive side of the regime. For those who mourn the dead and know them not as saboteurs and traitors, but as relatives, neighbors, and friends, there is nothing left to discuss. Slowly but surely, these ink spots of radicalized opposition are spreading and joining in an increasingly determined and coordinated movement to topple the regime.

Many Syrians — even among those without sympathy for the regime — still resist this conclusion. Their arguments should not be ignored. They dread the breakup of a state whose institutions, including the military, are weak even by regional standards. They fear that sectarian dynamics or a hegemonic religious agenda could take hold. They suspect Syria would cave in to foreign interference. And they distrust an exiled opposition that is all too reminiscent of Iraq’s.

The regime appears to be calculating that the prospect of a bloodbath will prove the strongest argument of all. The scenario is both risky and self-defeating, for if it will be a tragedy for the Syrian people, it will also spell disaster for the regime itself. Instead, it should immediately rein in security services, take decisive action against those responsible for state violence, and initiate a genuine, all-inclusive national dialogue. This could provide an opportunity for representatives of the popular movement to emerge, for their demands to be fleshed out, and for authorities to demonstrate they have more to offer than empty words and certain doom.

Peter Harling is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group

The following is a press release from the liberal wing of the Syrian Opposition. It is notable because it does not include anyone that I know who belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood or Islamic currents of the opposition or speaks for it. Many of the animators of the movement are academics in the US – Najib Ghadbian, a political science professor, and his wife, Mouhja Kahf, a talented poet, both teach at the University of Arkansas.Ammar Kahf, probably a brother,  is a grad student at UCLA.

Radwan Ziyadeh is now visiting at George Washington University and was at USIP. Ammar Abdulhamid was visiting at Brookings’ Saban Center. Khawla Yousef, another signer and activist, is his wife.

Ausama Monajed is the head of public relations at the Movement for Justice and Development in London , which has been in the news recently for getting 6 million dollars from the US.

Osama Kadi is co-founder and president of Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies SCPSS – a non-profit organization registered in Washington DC.

Their strategy is to ask the Syrian Army to turn against the president, as was the case in Egypt. This is an unlikely scenario because the Syrian Army has remained loyal to the President. The opposition has been claiming that soldiers have been shooting other soldiers for refusing to shoot on protesters. This is not convincing and seems to be the product of wishful thinking. Of course, if the revolution grows in size and force, the Sunni military officers will come under increasing social pressure to resign or defect.

The political reform plan is admirable.

Press Release

National Initiative for Change

Syrian Opposition Demand The Army to Protect Civilians and Facilitate a Transitional Period
Damascus, 29 April 2011

Background

Last Friday, 84 different cities and towns in Syria witnessed massive protests, 400 have been killed since the Syrian revolution started on March 15, with hundreds missing and thousands that have been detained. This popular uprising will lead eventually to the overthrow of the regime. It is imperative that we put an end to the arguments of Syrian exception. Our ultimate dream, as loyal

Syrian nationals, is first to witness our country become one of the best nations in the world. Given that we are witnessing profound “revolutionary”  changes not seen in the Arab region since the 1950’s and that we do not want a single drop of blood to be shed by any Syrian, we aspire to learn from other experiences and apply it to our case starting from experiments of transitions to democracies in Western Europe in the 1970’s, Latin American in the 1980’s, Eastern Europe in the 1990’s and what the Arab world is experiencing today as a result of successful popular revolts overthrowing regimes that had been in power for three decades or more.

Situation Now

Syria today only faces two options; either the ruling regime leads itself in a peaceful transition towards democracy –and we are very doubtful to the desire or will of the regime to do so- or it will go through a process of popular protests that will evolve into a massive and grassroots revolution that will breakdown the regime and carry Syria through a period of transition after a wave of violence and instability. Therefore Syria is at a crossroads; the best option is for the leadership of the regime is to lead a transition to democracy that would safeguard the nation from falling into a period of violence, chaos and civil war.

Moving Ahead Syria can accomplish this goal by many means. Political reform should start with re-writing the constitution in a modern democratic fashion that guarantees basic rights to its citizens and emphasizes a system of checks and balances between branches of government. This means a complete separation of the three branches of government: judiciary, executive and legislative. This would also include a radical reform of the judicial system or institutions that have been overcome with corruption and loss of trust by the citizens. This includes the lifting of the state of emergency and all extrajudicial special, martial and field courts -especially the State Security Court-, the release of all political prisoners, the legislation of a modern law governing political parties that would ensure the participation of all Syrians with no exceptions, the reform of media laws and regulations in order to guarantee freedom of the press, the legislation of a new election law, and the forming of a national committee for truth and reconciliation to investigate Syrians who have disappeared and to compensate political prisoners. Above all comes the granting of all political rights to Kurds, the removal of all forms of systemic discrimination practices against them and the prioritizing of eastern provinces in development and infrastructure projects.

The safe transition period in Syria must be based on a firm conviction that the Syrian population completely lost faith in the executive authority, on top of it is the president, his deputies, the prime minister, and the parliament or the People’s Council that has no role in the decision making process and its members are elected with no minimum standards of credibility, transparency and integrity in addition to the election law that regulates the political process rendering it no role in the transition process.

Therefore, the only institution that has the capability to lead the transition period would be the military, and especially the current Minister of Defense General Ali Habib and the Chief of Staff General Dawud Rajha. Both individuals represent a background that Syrians can positively relate with that enables them to take a key pivotal role during the transition process by leading negotiations with civilian representatives from the leadership of the opposition or other respected individuals to form an interim government. By entering the negotiation phase that should take us on a specified timeline to accomplish the democratic transition by first drafting an interim constitution for the country that should be ratified by a national referendum. The transition government will be responsible to monitor the elections and safeguard the successful accomplishment of the transition period beginning with certifying a new constitution drafted by professional constitutional and reform specialists.

Afterwards, the interim government shall issue a new election and political party law to regulate the election process for the president and members of the parliament which is monitored by an independent national committee based on judicial as well as domestic and international observers with an open door policy welcoming the formation of political parties that will participate in the elections.

If the Syrian President does not wish to be recorded in history as a leader of this transition period, there is no alternative left for Syrians except to move forward along the same path as did the Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans before them.

Signatories inside Syria:

150 politicians, civil society activists and human rights defenders (names are not published for personal safety reasons but will be provided to media).

Signatories outside Syria:

Yahya Mahmoud, Amer Mahdi, Najib Ghadbian, Saleh Moubarak, Ausama Monajed, Obaida Faris, Mohammed Askaf, Ammar Abdulhamid, Mohammed Zuhair Khateeb, Khawla Yousef, Abdulrahman Alhaaj, Douha Nashef, Mahmoud Alsayed Doughaim, Mouhja Kahf, Feras Kassas, Ammar Kahf, Aref Jabo, Mohyeddin Kassar, Abdulbaset Saida, Mazen Hashem, Hassan Jamali, Osama Kadi, Radwan Ziyadeh

Coordinators inside Syria:

Adnan Mahamid: +963 945 988958

Ayman Al-Aswad: +963 988 760302

Coordinators outside Syria:

Radwan Ziadeh: [email protected]

Ausama Monajed: [email protected]

Najib Ghadbian: [email protected]

A new blogger in Damascus who writes like a dream and gives us a wonderful new voice and perspective on life in Syria. Read Amina about her confrontation with two young Alawite intelligence agents – a wonderful account of the successful deployment of “the Damsacus gambit” on Syria’s complicated chessboard of religion, class, gender, patriarchy, and national one-upmanship. Delectable and scary. Thank God it has a happy ending.

A Gay Girl in Damascus: An out Syrian lesbian’s thoughts on life, the universe and so on …
26 April 2011
My father, the hero

We had a visit from the security services: it was late at night, in the wee small hours. Everyone was fast asleep. I woke when I heard the clamor and immediately guessed what had happened….

Both China and Russia speak out against sanctions in the Security Council of the UN

Syria turmoil kills Mrs Al-Assad’s forum
The wife of President Bashar Al-Assad was attempting to gather international cultural experts
By Anna Somers Cocks | From issue 224, May 2011

Asma Al-Assad

DAMASCUS. Among the victims of the current turmoil in Syria has been the attempt by Asma Al-Assad, right, wife of President Bashar Al-Assad, to put the country on a gentler and more international path.

Mrs Al-Assad, who grew up in Britain, is patron of the Syria Heritage Foundation, a UK charity set up by Wafic Saïd, the Damascus-born businessman who has brokered important deals between the British defence industry and Saudi Arabia. Last month, encouraged by Mrs Al-Assad, the Foundation was to have sponsored the first “Cultural Landscapes Forum” in Damascus together with the Aga Khan Trust for Culture.

The guest speakers were the crème de la crème of the global art scene, among them: the French minister of culture and the director of the Louvre talking about the Franco-Syrian cultural experience; the director of the British Museum on the history that only objects can tell; the director of the Hermitage Museum on how to modernise a museum; the head of the Aga Khan Trust on how to value culture as an asset; the director general of Unesco on the economic impact of the cultural sector.

Qifa Nabki proves recommended reading on Syria

Independent: Western intervention in Syria would make matters worse
By Patrick Cockburn – 2011-04-27

The Page: Three Amigos Get Serious on Syria, 2011-04-28

Sens. say situation has reached “decisive point,” urge Obama to “state unequivocally” that Assad must go. McCain, Lieberman, Graham Statement on Syria WASHINGTON, DC- Today, Senators John McCain (AZ-R), Joe Lieberman (CT-ID) and Lindsey …

Sent by a well connected Lebanese

The marauders in syria have resorted to the use of weapons… rustom ghazaleh (along with ahmad ayesh) both from Huran, are leading the campaign against the marauders. … A senior leb official who contacted maher recently said that 7 army tanks were hit by rpg … The hunt has been big so far and precious … Houran will be clean i believe in under two weeks. But total house cleaning will take a few months.

A french intel official said: “unfortunatelly, this regime was never in real trouble”

“We want to avoid “owning” a post-Bashar Syria because we had so much trouble ‘owning’ the post-Saddam Iraq“, (Alterman/ CFR)- Thanks to FLC

Do you have any thoughts on how this Syrian turmoil is going to resolve itself?

Syria is not like the other places. It is less internationally connected than Egypt is. It is less internationally isolated than Libya is. It is more ruthless than Tunisia. The Syrians also have the advantage of being able to learn from what other leaders have done and what their mistakes have been. The Syrian instinct is to talk soft; but to act hard…

Can you give an example?

They’ve announced that they are lifting the emergency law established in 1963, but they are not about to give up power. They reportedly have deployed more than three thousand troops to Deraa to put down the uprising there. I assume the intention of the Syrian leadership is to demonstrate that they have the capacity for so much force that they don’t have to use it. It also seems to me, however, quite clear that we are not close to the final denouement here. There are probably several more rounds [to go]…

We haven’t seen the decisive moment in Syria. The fact that Syria is so isolated in the world may make it easier for the Syrians to act with impunity…Syria’s self image, on the contrary, is that of a country that’s hunkering down, a country that has real enemies. When the national narrative is about real enemies, it makes it easier to cut yourself off, to use your force, and to keep the world from knowing much. In terms of the Syrian people, there has not yet been the sort of catalytic moment … We haven’t gotten there yet. I don’t know if we will, or when we will, but that point hasn’t come.

Some people have been speculating that a change in leadership in Syria would be a plus because it would reduce Iran’s influence in the region. Do you share that view?

Syria is Iran’s closest state ally in the Arab world – there are also non-state allies [like] Hezbollah [in Lebanon] and Hamas [in the Palestinian territories]. I think the fear of many is that a post-Bashar Syria would actually empower non-state proxies of Iran to action and in the net, help Iran in the Arab world.

UN Fails to Agree on Condemning Syria
2011-04-27
By EDITH M. LEDERER

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The deeply divided U.N. Security Council failed to agree on a European and U.S.-backed statement condemning Syrian violence against peaceful protesters on Wednesday, with Russia saying security forces were also killed and the actions don’t threaten international peace.

“A real threat to regional security in our view could arise from outside interference in Syria’s domestic situation including attempts to push ready-made solutions or taking of sides,” Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador Alexander Pankin warned the U.N.’s most powerful body during a public session that followed, saying this could lead to civil war.

“It is extremely important to focus all attempts on avoiding such a dangerous turn of events, especially as Syria is a cornerstone of the Middle East security architecture,” he said. “Destabilizing this significant link in the chain will lead to complications throughout the region.”

China and India called for political dialogue and peaceful resolution of the crisis, with no mention of condemnation.

China’s U.N. Ambassador Li Baodong said the turbulence in the Mideast and North Africa has also “dealt a big blow to the stability in this region.”

If the underlying issues aren’t addressed, he warned, “they will jeopardize peace and stability in other regions. They would also have a major negative impact on the recovery of the world economy.”

Lebanon’s U.N. Ambassador Nawaf Salam stressed the country’s special relationship with Syria, saying “the hearts and minds” of the Lebanese people are with the Syrian people and are supporting President Bashar Assad’s lifting of the state of emergency and reforms.

France, Britain, Germany and Portugal circulated a draft media statement on Monday calling for the 15-member council to condemn the violence. But during consultations Wednesday afternoon, several members were opposed so at the request of the Europeans and the U.S., the Security Council then moved into open session to hear a briefing from the U.N. political chief and statements from council members.

Syria’s U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari welcomed the council’s inaction and questioned the “unprecedented enthusiasm” by some members for the statement and a “lack of such enthusiasm” for attempting to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

????? ????? ?? ???? ?????:

“????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????? ??????”

????? ????? ?? ???? ????? :

“??????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ???????”

Syria’s capital tense as military fans out across country: Damascus was eerily quiet on Wednesday.
GlobalPost April 27, 2011

WSJ: Turkey Sends Delegation To Advise Syria On Reforms
By Marc Champion, 2011-04-28, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

ISTANBUL—Turkey on Thursday sent a high-level delegation of government experts to advise Syria on how to implement rapid reforms, a sign of Ankara’s concern that rising violence could trigger instability across the region and unravel Turkish commercial and foreign-policy gains.

The decision to send the team was agreed in advance with Syria’s leadership, according to Selim Yenel, deputy undersecretary for the Americas at Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Turkish leaders have repeatedly called for Mr. Assad to exercise restraint in dealing with protesters and to quickly introduce reforms, only to see their appeals ignored.

Syria is proving to be the biggest challenge to date, among the uprisings across the Middle East, for the “no problems with neighbors” policy that Turkey’s government has been following in recent years, analysts say. That policy had significantly boosted Turkey’s exports, image and influence in the region.

But in the midst of an election campaign, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan—who developed a close relationship with Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad—has come under fire from political opponents at home in recent days for being too soft on the Syrian president as the death toll in Syria has risen.

“We don’t want an authoritarian, totalitarian regime” in Syria, Mr. Erdogan said late Wednesday. “We hope the process of democratization will be rapidly pursued. Our representatives will present to [President Assad] some of our preparations.”

Thursday’s delegation to Damascus marks the beginning of a process designed to produce a “road map” for changes to Syria’s public and economic administration in line with popular demands, Mr. Yenel said in a phone interview. “They said we should send a delegation…[they] can use,” he said.

Mr. Erdogan has met with and telephoned Mr. Assad in an effort to influence him “on a number of occasions” since protests began in Syria, Mr. Yenel said. That makes Turkey one of the few countries—other than Iran—with a direct channel of communication to the Syrian leader.

“We know [that public pressure] puts them in a box, in a corner. We try to engage these people,” said Mr. Yenel, referring also to Turkey’s cautious approach to pressuring Libyan leader Col. Moammar Ghadafi.

But the uprisings in the Middle East also threaten to undermine the “no problems with neighbors” policy that has helped to expand Turkish trade and influence in the region in recent years. That policy was achieved by developing strong commercial relationships and political ties with the existing regimes, including joint cabinet meetings with Mr. Assad’s government.

“These linkages have made Turkey into a status-quo power, unwilling to see dramatic change” in the region, said Turkey analyst Henri Barkey, in a question and answer session this week held by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The “no problems” policy has put Ankara at odds with Washington when it comes to how to deal with countries such as Iran and Libya, which the U.S. seeks to isolate. Turkey opposed the imposition of sanctions on both countries and, initially, the imposition of a no-fly zone on Libya. It has also complicated the powerful image Turkey projected to the Arab street as a role model for democracy promotion, right up to Mr. Erdogan’s early call for former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to resign in February.

When it comes to Syria, the U.S. is also proving more cautious than in Libya about risking intervention or pressing to oust Mr. Assad. But Turkey is especially worried about the prospect of a sectarian implosion in Syria, and Turkish analysts believe tensions could emerge if Washington decides to push forward with sanctions.

Turkey came close to war with Syria in 1998, over Turkish allegations that Syria was providing safe haven to leaders of the militant Kurdish Workers Party, or PKK, with which Turkish security forces have been fighting since 1984 in a conflict that cost tens of thousands of lives. The two countries share a common border of more than 800 kilometers.

“What worries us right now is Syria,” said a senior Turkish official, who declined to be named. “Our longest border is with Syria and we now have visa-free travel between the two countries. Plus, Syria has a Kurdish minority [as does Turkey]. So any big civil unrest there would be a concern for us.”….

Guardian (GB): Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown kills UK hopes of a new dawn, 2011-04-27

Julian Borger, diplomatic editor guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 27 April 2011 21.45 BST Bashar al-Assad and wife Asma with the Blairs at No 10: The familarity created by the Syrian president’s British education and wife has proved deceptive. Photograph: …

Interrogations and arrests of Kurdish activists continue in Syria, 24 April 2011

Clarifying the citizenship decree for Kurds in Syria 17 April 2011

Syria: Will Friday bring dignity or disaster?, 25 March 2011

Evening Standard: Syrian ambassador on guest list, 2011-04-27

Syria’s ambassador to London, who was summoned to the Foreign Office over the regime’s bloody crackdown on protesters, is due to attend the royal wedding. A spokesman for St James’s Palace confirmed that Sami Khiyami was still on the guest list for …

Democracy Digest » Arab Spring? Forget it.
www.demdigest.net

Dictators watch Al Jazeera too and they have drawn the necessary lessons from recent events, a Washington meeting heard today. Ruling elites are recalculating and adapting to enhance their survival prospects, but external factors are marginal as there are no instruments in the democracy promotion to…

Syrian funding causes embarrassment at British university
Peter Beaumont and Jeevan Vasagar
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 27 April 2011

University of St Andrews to review acceptance of funding arranged by Bashar al-Assad’s controversial regime in Damascus, The University of St Andrews has received more than £100,000 in funding from Bashar al-Assad’s regime for its centre for Syrian studies. A prestigious British university is to review the work of one of its academic research centres because its funding was arranged by the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Guardian can reveal.

The University of St Andrews, where Prince William and Kate Middleton studied, has received more than £100,000 in funding for its centre for Syrian studies with the assistance of Syria’s ambassador to the UK, Sami Khiyami.

Following questions from the Guardian about its relations with figures associated with the regime – and “in view of significant international concerns about recent events in Syria” – a spokesman for St Andrews said the university would be reviewing the centre’s work “to ensure its high academic standards are maintained”.

The university’s association with the Assad regime has come under scrutiny in the wake of the violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Syria which is estimated to have claimed 450 lives so far.

In addition to Khiyami, who the Foreign Office confirmed last night had been invited to the royal wedding, the centre’s board of advisers also boasts figures closely associated with the Damascus regime, including Fawaz Akhras, the charismatic British-based cardiologist who is not only Bashar al-Assad’s father-in-law, but also acts as a gatekeeper for the family, screening British journalists before they are granted an interview with his daughter Asma al-Assad or his son-in-law.

Akhras is also the founder of the British Syrian Society, which has organised visits to Damascus and meetings with Bashar al-Assad for sympathetic members of parliament, as well as organising an investment conference in London to introduce British, European and Arab businesses to Syrian government ministers.

Opened in November 2006 as part of the university’s school of international relations, funding for the centre was only secured with the assistance of Khiyami, who, according to the centre’s head, Prof Raymond Hinnebusch, persuaded Syrian-born British businessman Ayman Asfari to pay for it.

Asfari is head of Petrofac, the London and Aberdeen-based oil and gas services company, which is a partner of the Syrian government in two major projects in the country worth $1bn, according to the company’s figures.

The latest embarrassing disclosure over connections between a British university and an authoritarian Arab regime follows the row that engulfed the London School of Economics over its links with Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.

Supporters of the centre and of Hinnebusch – including the author Patrick Seale, who is an adviser to the centre – insist on the necessity of engaging with Syria as it appeared to be grappling with reform, and stress the seriousness of its academic work.

But critics claim that British universities should have been far more vigilant before associating with regimes with a record of human rights and other abuses.

According to Hinnebusch, writing in the Syrian Studies Association newsletter last year: “Khiyami made the decisive breakthrough in finding a philanthropist who was willing to provide the funding to launch the centre.”

A well-known scholar on Syria, he insists that his centre supports “politically unbiased research”, and he has written that he believes Syria is “lamentably misunderstood in policy circles and in the western media where the over-amplified voices of special interest pundits are allowed to demonise all who oppose imperial plans for the region”.

Despite the fact that the opening of the centre came at a time when western governments were attempting to engage with Damascus, Syria remained – as it still does – a police state with few political freedoms or rights of free expression, and a state where human rights abuses continue. Among events organised by the centre, in partnership with the Orient Centre for International Studies based in Syria, was a conference in Damascus in 2008 with papers provided by a former adviser to Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s harshly authoritarian father who was implicated in numerous human rights abuses, and other pro-regime officials.

Robert Halfon, the Conservative MP for Harlow, who has called for an inquiry into universities’ links with despotic Middle Eastern regimes, said: “We need to learn from what’s happened with Libyan funding of our universities, that universities should not accept money from governments like Syria, or those with connections to the Syrian government. The danger is that you get compromised by the amount of money, and it inevitably influences your outlook on the Middle East. I’ve argued that universities that take money from dictatorships should receive a reduction in their public subsidy.”

Guardian (GB): Syrian officers received training in Britain
2011-04-27

Syrian officers received training at the Royal Military Academy in Sandhurst. Photograph: Frank Baron for the Guardian The British government has defended its training programme for foreign military leaders after it emerged that it had educated …