Opposition groups and activists are planning to meet in in Antalya, Turkey from May 31 to June 2 in an attempt to elect a transitional council, connect with protesters inside the country, and present the international community with a clear alternative to Assad.

In April, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood gathered in Istanbul, where a press conference was held by Riad al-Shaqfa, a mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood. It was carried live on Al Jazeera. The meeting was organized under the auspices of the Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association, or MÜS?AD, but the financer and the real organizer was Gazi M?s?rl?, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and a Syrian who has been living in Turkey with Turkish citizenship, the Syrian ambassador to Ankara, Nidal Kabalan, told the Hürriyet Daily News.

“The conference will be open to all supporters of the opposition, independent personalities and representatives of all faiths,” Ammar Qurabi, president of the Egypt-based National Organisation of Human Rights, told AFP. He referred to the Damascus Declaration, which was formed in 2005 and  demanded an end to the domination of the ruling Baath party, free elections and the release of political prisoners.

Listen to this Radio Show to hear Ausama Monajed, an important England based activist
— Questions Over Syria: ‘Who’s Leading Revolution… Are We Going To Have Stability?’
“Here and Now” on NPR –  “We look at what’s next for Syria with Landis and Monajed.”

London-based activist Ausama Monajed, who lives in England and issues – Syrian Revolution News Round-ups, is leading Syria’s online opposition and says that the Syrian government won’t be able to stop change simply by shutting down telephone lines or by closely monitoring Internet-based protest, as they have for years.

But Syria expert Josh Landis of the University of Oklahoma, describes deep divisions in Syria, where many residents are fearful of change. Landis said, “You know the anxiety for many Syrians is…. who is leading this revolution, what do they want, who’s going to take over, are we going to have stability?” We look at what’s next for Syria with Landis and Monajed.

Here is what Syrian ambassador to Ankara, Nidal Kabalan, told the Hürriyet Daily News last week about the Muslim Brotherhood meeting in Istanbul in April.

The Syrian administration has also been irked by the meetings of Syrian opposition figures in Istanbul in April. “I think Turkey has been trying to play a role, maybe which, in principle, has a good intention, but the Muslim Brotherhood, those who have taken part in armed operations against the Syrian army in 1980s, have Syrian blood on their hands,” Kabalan said.

“For us, the Muslim Brotherhood is like the PKK is for Turkey,” he said, referring to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. “The Muslim Brotherhood has been attacking the army. You have to understand that sensitivity.”

Kabalan said the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood had been engaged in a dialogue with the Syrian government, but added that he was talking about the military wing of the group.

“At the gathering in Istanbul a press conference was held by Riad al-Shaqfa, a mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood. It was carried live on Al Jazeera – an unwelcome development, I have to be honest. We did not like it. You should not give a platform to people with blood on their hands,” he said.

“The issue is who is meeting and what the decisions are. If it was a meeting to initiate a peaceful constructive dialogue with the country, it was not a problem,” Kabalan added.

The meeting was organized under the auspices of the Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association, or MÜS?AD, but the financer and the real organizer was Gazi M?s?rl?, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and a Syrian who has been living in Turkey with Turkish citizenship, Kabalan said.

“When President al-Assad came to Istanbul [in 2009], Mr. Erdo?an introduced this guy and said, ‘Please, my brother Bashar, help this man.’ M?s?rl? is the financer of most of the actions,” the ambassador said. “He was welcomed by Bashar al-Assad personally to go back to Syria. This was a year and a half ago, and he did not give one single answer.”

“We are very sorry for every single drop of blood that has been shed on Syrian soil. Syrian blood should be spread in Palestine, in fighting Israel, not in fighting in Syrian cities,” he added.

Kabalan said the unrest in Syria was almost over and that the government had obtained confessions from arrested armed people of at least 11 nationalities, including those from Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Eritrea and Somalia.

Asked about criticisms that al-Assad’s regime is slow in acting on reforms, the envoy said such changes take time, citing the Turkish government’s efforts to change the constitution over the past four to five years.

Turkish experts who visited Damascus have contributed to legislation on a multiparty system, a new law for local administration and a law on peaceful demonstrations, he said.

US policy on Syria ‘depends on success in Libya’,
Kim Ghattas By Kim Ghattas BBC News, Washington, 24 May 2011

…. In Washington as well as European capitals, the consensus seems to be that Mr Assad’s days are numbered even though there is no decision to call on him to go.

While the West decided it could never work with Col Gaddafi again, there would still be a willingness to work with Mr Assad if he suddenly made concrete, genuine efforts towards dialogue and democracy.

The US and its Western allies also do not want to call for the departure of another leader and find him still sitting in his presidential palace weeks later, said a European diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.

“If we want to address Syria, we have to deal with Libya first,” said the diplomat.

Ammar Abdulhamid, a long time Syrian dissident who has been living in exile in the US since 2005, suggests the administration is slowing down the process that would lead to calls for Mr Assad to leave – trying to buy time “while they try to finish things in Libya”….

Mr Abdulhamid acknowledged that another reason why the US has refrained from calling on Mr Assad to go is its uncertainty about a post-Assad future.

“They don’t believe he’s a reformer, but they can’t see an alternative,” he said.

A large number of opposition groups are now reportedly planning to meet in Turkey at the end of the month, to attempt to elect a transitional council, connect with protesters inside the country, and present the international community with a clear alternative to Assad.

If they succeed, it would move the debate about Syria into a new phase.

Syrian president, top officials, businessmen hit by EU sanctions
2011-05-24, Trend

Brussels (DPA) — Syria’s president, its vice-president, a top adviser, a slew of security officials and several businessmen loyal to the regime were officially banned on Tuesday from travelling to the European Union, with any assets they may hold in the bloc frozen. The names of the 10 new individuals targeted in the EU’s second round of Syrian sanctions were published in its official journal, marking their entry into force….

In Iran, an additional five people and 72 companies involved in activities involving nuclear or ballistic missiles have been hit with travel bans and asset freezes, including companies with locations in Germany, Belarus, Malaysia, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Malta, Cyprus and the Isle of Man.

Canada imposes economic sanctions on Syria in response to crackdown
Washington Post –

Canada’s sanctions will prevent Syrian leaders from travelling to Canada and essentially ban trade between the two countries. The measures are largely symbolic because Canada exports only about $60 million annually to Syria, and receives less than a tenth that in imports.

LA Times [Reg]: Nuclear report on Syria may augur punitive action
2011-05-25

Reporting from Beirut— The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog released a detailed report saying Syria “very likely” pursued a clandestine nuclear program, an assertion that is expected to add pressure on a regime already reeling from protests at …

US ex-general predicts Syria intervention

[A reader pointed out that this is probably not true – Thanks]

NATO hits Tripoli in largest strike yet

Syrian capital’s residents on edge
Jocelyne Zablit , 24 May 2011, Agence France Presse

Damascus remains relatively untouched by the pro-democracy protests roiling Syria, but even supporters of the regime in the capital are becoming edgy about the mounting death toll and wondering where the country is headed.

While on the surface all appears normal in the city, with shops open, traffic jams and crowded sidewalks, it is clear that the unrest is on everyone’s mind and that with each new demonstration, casualty and sanction the tension rises a notch.

Many hunker down in their homes at night instead of socialising, while some evening events are being cancelled or moved up so that residents can rush home early.

“Two weeks ago we still believed the government’s assertion that everything was under control and that the crisis was over,” said one local resident, traditionally a supporter of President Bashar al-Assad.

“But the future suddenly looks dark and I wonder down what path the regime is taking us,” added the woman, who like others mentioned in this article refused to be named.

Many people in the metropolis of some four million — where the Alawite-controlled authoritarian regime has a strong base of support among minority Christians and members of the Sunni bourgeoisie — seem baffled by the turn of events.

“It is beginning to sink in that this is not going to be over soon and that the country is undergoing major change,” said one businessman. “Nothing will be the same as before anymore.”

Assad still enjoys strong support in the capital but there are growing fears that the situation is spiralling out of control and that the unrest could eventually hit Damascus and Aleppo, the two major power centres largely spared the violence so far.

‘The impact of Syria’s unrest on Iran‘ (Jubin Goodarzi, The Iran Primer–USIP)

“For Iran, the ouster of President Bashar Assad in Syria would arguably be the most significant setback since the end of its eight-year war with Iraq in 1988 and possibly even since its 1979 revolution. Regime change would be a major blow for both Iran’s ideological and foreign policy goals. Syria has been Iran’s only stalwart supporter over the past 32 years. It was one of the few Arab states that stood by Iran during its eight-year-long war with Iraq in the 1980s. Over the past three decades, Syria has also served as a major conduit for Iranian arms shipments and support to Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The militant Shiite movement represents a major asset for Tehran and Damascus in the regional power struggle against Israel, the United States and their allies. Since the end of the 2006 Lebanon conflict, Damascus and Tehran have rebuilt Hezbollah into a formidable force with an arsenal estimated at 40,000 rockets and missiles.”

Netanyahu rules out return to 1967 borders in AIPAC address

Guardian (GB): Syria acknowledges sanctions will hurt
2011-05-23

ZEINA KARAM Associated Press= BEIRUT (AP) — Syria’s foreign minister acknowledged Monday that European sanctions will hurt Syrian interests, but he said Damascus will not allow foreign countries to impose their will on Syria.

Debate Over Religious Freedom in Syria Causes Anger in Los Angeles Diaspora, Mary Slosson for Huffington Post

Features Ammar Kahf, a leader of the local opposition protests and the Los Angeles representative of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. He is brother of Mohja Kahf, who is the wife of Najib Ghadbian. All are among the 20 or so signers of the “National Initiative for Change”

Nikolaos van Dam Recommends Five Books on Syria to Browser

The veteran Dutch diplomat and academic  explains what is important about each of his top-five picks on Syria and why meaningful political change in Syria will be difficult to achieve. He warns that any move towards democracy is likely to be accompanied by severe sectarian tension.

Tear down this wall, President Assad
By David W. Lesch Monday, May 23, 2011, Foreign Policy

….Assad’s initial strategic vision for an internationally respected and integrated Syria has been consumed by a Syrian paradigm of political survival. He desperately needs to break out of this stifling, anachronistic box and embrace a transformational role in his country. It will be difficult, with powerful pockets of resistance to any significant changes to the status quo potentially arrayed against him. Is he willing to boldly take them on? Can he be Gorbachev-like? Is he the father who did everything he could to ensure his children’s future? Because if he is not all of these things, he will once again be faced with two possibilities: He will either be violently overthrown or be president of a country that has become the North Korea of the Middle East. I doubt this is what he really wants.

Syria: Desperate measures, 16 May 2011
Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Middle East

The central bank has hiked deposit rates sharply in what seems to be a desperate bid to shore up ebbing confidence in both the local currency and the banking system

The Central Bank of Syria has announced a set of measures that seem to be aimed mainly at shoring up confidence in the local currency in the face of the extreme political turbulence that has hit the country since mid-March. The measures could succeed in their assumed objective of protecting the Syrian pound, but they risk imposing heavy costs on both banks and their business creditors. They also betray a certain desperation on the part of the authorities, and suggest that the state’s foreign exchange reserves could be sinking to dangerously low levels.

The central bank has addressed the problems of an exchange rate under pressure and shrinking liquidity in the banking system on three fronts: it has increased interest rates on deposits (in both local and foreign currency); it has cut the statutory reserve requirement of banks; and it has introduced a foreign exchange savings scheme.

Surprise package

Soundings by the Economist Intelligence Unit indicate that the central bank did not consult with banks about its plans, which were communicated through a statement from the governor, Adib Mayaleh, to Al-Thawrah, a state-owned newspaper. The increase in rates on Syrian pound deposits has been, in effect, 300 basis points: the recommended range for rates on time deposits has been set at 7-9%, compared with 5-7% previously, but the additional margin that banks are allowed to use has been narrowed by 100 basis points to plus or minus 1 percentage point (from 2) on condition that the gap between the highest and lowest rate is not more than 2 percentage points (previously 3). Given that banks will be unable to pass on the increases to all of their loan customers (as some facilities will have had fixed rates), the impact on lending rates for new customers and existing ones with variable rates will be severe. Syrian businesses have been able to borrow at 9-10% since deposit rates were cut at the end of 2010; lending rates are now likely to shoot up to about 15%. The central bank is evidently hoping that the higher deposit rates will stem the recent tide of withdrawals (which have been particularly marked in public-sector banks). Mr Mayaleh also said that he has decided to increase rates on foreign exchange deposits, to 2-3% over Libor for US dollars and 1-2% over Libor for euros. He said that this measure should encourage Syrians to keep their hard currency savings inside the country.

In response to banks’ complaints about a shortage of liquidity, the central bank has lowered the statutory reserve requirement to 5% of total deposits from 10% previously. This ratio can be cut to zero in relation to the portion of deposits devoted to financing projects.

Earlier this year the central bank increased the amount of foreign exchange that Syrians were permitted to buy for unspecified reasons to US$10,000 per month from US$3,000 previously. However, as pressure mounted on the local currency this dispensation was in effect suspended. Mr Mayaleh has now offered a scheme whereby a customer can make a one-off purchase up to US$120,000 per year on condition that it is left in a term deposit account. The funds will earn interest, but this will be deducted in the event that the funds are withdrawn before the minimum term of three months.

Pound on the slide

The central bank has chosen to take these measures after several weeks of pumping foreign exchange into the market in an effort to narrow the differential between the official exchange rate and rates offered on the black market. The Syrian pound is pegged against the SDR, but the official rate has hardly moved over the past few months. As a result of the intervention the gap between rates had started to narrow, but the resort to interest rate hikes suggests that the authorities may be starting to be concerned about the risk of running down the country’s foreign exchange reserves. These are estimated by the IMF to have been about US$20bn prior to the crisis, but this sum includes holdings of the largest state-owned bank as well as those of the central bank itself. The authorities appear to have shied away from the option of devaluation.

The measures appeared on balance to reassure the Syrian financial markets, at least to judge by the performance of the stockmarket, whose index rose by 2% on May 4th (as well as on the next three trading days), after steady declines over the previous six weeks. Bankers clearly hope that the authorities will compensate them through offering realistic rates on upcoming treasury bill issues and through placing some more foreign exchange in the banking system. It is also assumed that if the political situation stabilises, the authorities will be in a position to lower interest rates before too long.

The EU sanctions that went into effect on May 10th will not have a serious immediate impact on the Assad regime, but they serve as warning that one important source of development finance is now at risk.

Kuwaiti Investors Acquire Syria Duty Free’s Border Outlets
2011-05-24 By Lina Ibrahim

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Kuwaiti investors acquired duty-free shops operated at airports, ports and border crossings in Syria, according to a statement posted on the website of Syria Duty Free Ltd. The previous owners included the Makhlouf family, whose members were covered by recent U.S. and European Union asset sanctions related to human-rights abuses in Syria. The investors, who were not identified, bought all the shares in the company including those held by Sunset Ltd. and Dawn Ltd. and plan to disclose more information about the transaction, Syria Duty Free said in the statement dated May 20.

??????? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ?? “20 ???? ??? 15 ???? “ Syria lowers the price of Mazout – Kar0sin oil – from 20 to 15 liras a liter. This is a big deal and will cost the government a lot of money.

????? ????? ???? ???????? ??? ????????? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ?? (20 ???? ?????) ??? (15 ???? ?????)? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ????? 2009 ?? (25 ????) ??? (20 ????).

An interesting analysis of the Kurds (in french Le Monde) about their delicate position in Syria in the uprising.
Que veulent les Kurdes syriens ?

Syrian rights group says death toll exceeds 1000 AP

Syria’s cyberdissidents fight from abroad
May 24, 2011 12:04 PM (Last updated: May 24, 2011 12:12 PM)
By Khaled Soubeih, Agence France Press

….

Syria’s cyberdissidents are determined to keep fighting for freedom in their homeland, which for 48 years has been ruled by the Baath party.

“We have no choice. We either keep fighting or we accept that our children will be ruled by the children of Bashar al-Assad, as our parents lived under Hafez,” Bashar’s late father, Samra said.

Massoud Akko, a 28-year-old Syrian Kurdish activist, is banned from travel in his native Syria. He managed to escape to Lebanon one year ago and today continues his activism from Norway.

“Our cause today is to restore dignity to all Syrians, no matter who they are, and to build our future with our own hands, the hands of the people, as in any civilised country,” Akko said.

Abed al-Hindi, a 28-year-old Christian from Damascus, fled to Lebanon in 2007 before moving to the United States, where he today works with cyberdissidents.org, an organisation that promotes online activism.

“What every Syrian dreams of today is a state that is fair to all and has as its priority the safety and interests of its citizens,” Hindi told AFP….

One of the underlying causes for conflict in Syrian society is the enormous power held by al-Assad and others in his minority Alawite religious community – a branch of Shiite Islam, comprising only 12 percent of the population. The 74 percent of the Sunni Muslim majority in Syria complain bitterly of deep-rooted discrimination. Between The Lines’ Scott Harris Spoke with Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, and editor of the online newsletter Syria Comment. Landis discusses the religious divisions in Syria which present a major obstacle to ending the violence and negotiating political and economic reforms.

From the streets of Syria, a British student reports on the propaganda campaign waged by the government to convince people that all is OK and that the West is to blame—and it’s working.

Tribal Justice Blamed for Deaths of 120 Syrian police and soldiers
by Phil Sands in The National, May 17, 2011

In the two months since an anti-government uprising began in Syria, more than 120 police officers and soldiers have been killed, authorities say.

If that number is correct, then the Syrian government has lost as many members of its security forces since March as the US military has lost in Afghanistan since the start of the year – 127 killed in action – and more than the British army has lost in any single year during the decade-long Afghan war.

Government officials argue that the scale of the violence is clear evidence that Syria is facing an insurgency by Islamist terrorists.

Instead, the reality may be far more mundane – especially in the tribal regions of the country where many of the attacks against government forces appear to have taken place.

Rather than a conspiracy of Islamist fundamentalists supplied with weapons and cash by Syria’s enemies, tribe members and other residents of these areas say many of those shooting at the security services are motivated by traditions of tribal justice and dignity, self-defence, a sense of powerlessness and years of pent-up anger and frustration.

For all its hallmarks as a modern secular state, Syria remains a complex mosaic of tribes, sects and powerful extended families. Loyalty to clan often supersedes allegiance to country and tribal justice regularly supplants civil law.

Rural Syria, where this hierarchy of loyalties is most prevalent, is home to most of the country’s 22 million people. Nevertheless, large-scale migration means tribal influences have reached into the teeming working-class suburbs of Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and other major cities.

This clash of tribal identity with state authority is woven into the violence that has swept the country since protests began two months ago this week. The absence of any credible prosecution of those responsible for excessive violence against unarmed protesters has given way to more traditional ways of holding people to account.

“If you kill someone from a tribe and the government doesn’t deliver justice, then the tribe will see justice is done in its own way, which means blood-for-blood,” a member of one of Syria’s major clans said.

“My people believe in revenge. If one of the tribe is shot by a member of the security services and the killer is not properly punished by the government, then another security man will be killed to settle the score. It’s simple: an eye for an eye.”

That reaction to what many viewed as official impunity took root on March 18 during the first rally in Deraa, the crucible of the uprising, when four people were shot dead as they demanded the release of 15 local schoolchildren who had been arrested and abused by the security forces for writing political graffiti on a wall.

The powerful tribal families in the southern Houran region, which has Deraa as its capital, asked the authorities to discipline security personnel involved in killings, particularly the senior officers who gave orders to open fire on unarmed protesters during the first demonstration.

Seeking to Disrupt Protesters, Syria Cracks Down on Social Media
By JENNIFER PRESTON, May 22, 2011, New York Times

The Syrian government is cracking down on protesters’ use of social media and the Internet to promote their rebellion just three months after allowing citizens to have open access to Facebook and YouTube, according to Syrian activists and digital privacy experts.

Security officials are moving on multiple fronts — demanding dissidents turn over their Facebook passwords and switching off the 3G mobile network at times, sharply limiting the ability of dissidents to upload videos of protests to YouTube, according to several activists in Syria. And supporters of President Bashar al-Assad, calling themselves the Syrian Electronic Army, are using the same tools to try to discredit dissidents. ….

There are about 580,000 Facebook users in Syria, a 105 percent increase since the government lifted its four-year ban on Feb. 9, according to Fadi Salem, director of the Governance and Innovation Program at the Dubai School of Government.

Though Syrian officials sought to portray the decision as a sign of openness, human right advocates warned that the government could use Facebook to closely monitor regime criticism and ferret out dissidents as nearby countries erupted in revolt.

A man in his 20s living in Syria said that the police demanded his Facebook password late last month after arresting him where he worked and taking his laptop. “I told him, at first, I didn’t have a Facebook account, but he told me, after he punched me in the face, that he knew I had one because they were watching my ‘bad comments’ on it,” he said. “I knew then that they were monitoring me.”…

For now, activists in Syria said they would not know whether using Facebook had helped or hurt them until the revolt came to an end…. “It may be effective if the regime that you are campaigning against is insufficiently ruthless or powerful. If you win quickly, Facebook is the right tool to use. If not, it becomes much more dangerous.”

Wikileaks: US Cable: “Saudi Arabia & UAE sent $100 Million annually to fund ‘Islamic extremists'” Cable referenced: # 178082.

KARACHI: A US official in a cable sent to the State Department stated that “financial support estimated at nearly 100 million USD annually was making its way to Deobandi and Ahl-i-Hadith clerics in south Punjab from organisations in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates ostensibly with the direct support of those governments.” The cable sent in November 2008 by Bryan Hunt, the then Principal Officer at the US Consulate in Lahore, was based on information from discussions with local government and non-governmental sources during his trips to the cities of Multan and Bahawalpur… …

Brotherhood Raises Syria Profile
Islamist Group Tries to Organize Opposition to Assad Regime, as Protests Waver
By NOUR MALAS

Syrian families fleeing violence in their country arrived in Wadi Khaled, in northern Lebanon, near the Syrian border Monday.

The exiled Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, the only antiretime group to ever seriously challenge the Assad government, said it was trying to take a larger role in organizing the disparate opposition as Syria’s street protests appear to wane.

The move from the banned and exiled group could capitalize on an apparent deadlock between protesters and President Bashar al-Assad’s government, as opposition activists fail to coalesce into a solid front.

Despite years of shifting alliances and a recent internal struggle for leadership, the Syria Brotherhood’s role as one of the oldest organized antigovernment movements could prove effective amid the power void of Syria’s opposition.

Israel fortifies borders and Jerusalem after protests on Nakba Day, killing 15. Video courtesy of Reuters.

“We have a desire to coordinate the position of the opposition,” said Zuhair Salim, a spokesman for Syria’s Brotherhood based in London, which is loosely affiliated with other Arab Muslim Brotherhood movements. “We are supporters, and not creators. The voice of the street is a spokesperson for itself.”

His comments reflect a cautious position calibrated to avoid claiming leadership of a protest movement Mr. Assad’s government has characterized as run by armed, extremist Islamist groups. The Brotherhood poses a particular problem for some of the antiregime activists trying to forge secular coalitions more in line with the street movement.

Mr. Salim has become increasingly vocal since the Brotherhood in late April backed the protest movement, appearing on Arabic-language television programs to support what the group has called a “peaceful, popular intifada,” or resistance…….

….Last summer, Muhammad Riad al-Shakfa succeeded Ali Bayanouni as the Syrian Brotherhood’s leader, raising concerns that gains made under Mr. Bayanouni to shift the movement to the center would be reversed. The party under Mr. Shakfa, seen as taking a harder line, found itself “sitting on the sidelines of history” as the Arab Spring swept into Syria, one opposition member described. “It found a chance to reinvent itself in the street movement,” the person said.Mr. Shafka has gathered a group of younger Turkey-based activists that are now trying to help activists inside Syria to coordinate, people close to the party said.

Mr. Salim said the group has engaged in talks with a group of activists—minus a handful of figures who the Brotherhood had broke alliances with in the past— who have tried, but failed, for two months to form a broad enough coalition to represent Syria’s opposition abroad.

“Our efforts are ongoing and we hope that in no more than a month you will hear of an organized front,” he said.

The Brotherhood continues to communicate, indirectly, with members of its earlier alliance, the Damascus Declaration, including veteran dissident Michel Kilo, who met with Assad advisor, Bouthaina Shaaban, last week. But Syria’s opposition has rejected outreach attempts by the government, calling any initiative including the “national dialogue,” a nonstarter before tanks withdraw from the street and security forces stop shooting protesters.

The Brotherhood would consider dialogue with the Assad government, under certain conditions, if the violence against protesters were to stop, Mr. Salim said.

Syria’s protests have been largely free of Islamist overtones. Protesters gather in public squares outside of mosques on Fridays, the day of the Islamic prayer. But over recent years, Islam has grown its profile in Syrian society, even under Mr. Assad’s staunchly secular rule. Mr. Salim said the group is in touch with religious leaders, mosque imams, and their students in and outside Syria.

“Religion is the most important aspect in my life,” said one conservative, Sunni landowner in Damascus. “But we do not like Salafism—we all want to live in a moderate community in peace,” he said, addressing the government line that the hard-line Islamist movement has stoked the protests.

….Failed alliances, including abandoning in 2009 a coalition with former vice president Abdul Halim Khaddam after he turned against the regime and brief overtures to the regime itself cast doubt over the Brotherhood’s ability to command leadership of even the anti-regime movement abroad.

“Those 30 years destroyed their organization, and they lost their legitimacy because they changed positions so much without explanation over the past five years,” said Burhan Ghalioun, an opposition member who is a scholar of contemporary oriental studies at the Sorbonne in Paris.

But the longer the protesters’ stalemate with tanks and troops stretches out, the more appealing the group’s organizational advantage will likely appear.

“People on the street are getting tired, they’re running out of resources, and they don’t have that much experience,” said one protest coordinator outside Syria. “They recognize, and we have to recognize, that the Brothers are better organized and better funded.”

The Brotherhood, in the meantime, will continue to walk a cautious line. “The plan for now is, we say we are in cohesion with the protesters, and that means we will monitor the movement of the Syrian street,” Mr. Salim said. “We’re not in a position to approach them with something that they can’t take on, and yet we can’t abandon them so they feel they’re on their own.”

Syria ‘offended’ by Turkish PM’s statement, envoy says

….The envoy suggested that the upcoming elections in Turkey might have impacted Turkey’s attitude on the uprisings in Syria, which turned from support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at first to criticism of the regime’s bloody crackdown on protesters.

“We understand there has been a change [in Turkey’s approach to the Syrian turmoil] mainly for some local considerations. The elections are a key factor and it is putting everybody in an awkward position,” he said…..

….Kabalan said.

“For us, the Muslim Brotherhood is like the PKK is for Turkey,” he said, referring to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. “The Muslim Brotherhood has been attacking the army. You have to understand that sensitivity.”

Kabalan said the political wing of Muslim Brotherhood had been engaged in dialogue with the Syrian government, but added that he was talking about the military wing of the group.

Independent: Damascus souk yearns for tourists
2011-05-22

Hani Abou al-Nasser rolls his eyes, shrugs and lets out a worried sigh as he gestures toward his empty store in the old souk of Damascus. “I haven’t made a penny in four days,” laments the 64-year-old. “There is no work. The tourists are gone.” His …

Growing Calls For Assad Dialogue With Syrian Protesters 2011-05-22, WASHINGTON (AFP)–

Jordan’s King Abdullah II urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday to reach out to protesters amid a brutal crackdown by the Syrian government that has killed at least 900 people.  His call was echoed by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, an Egyptian presidential candidate, who called on Assad to accelerate socioeconomic and political reforms, as well as provide more freedoms and set new elections.  “To turn things around and bring calm and stability, dialogue, national reconciliation, outreach is the only way that you can do so,” Abdullah II told ABC television’s “This Week” in noting that Assad has yet to bring all parties to the table to reach a peaceful solution.  “I think Bashar needs to reach out to the people and get people around the table,” the Jordanian monarch added, noting his own father, the late King Hussein, had advised him to “keep as close to the people as possible.”  Western-educated Assad, once seen as a reformist, should “accelerate, do the reform, quickly, quickly,” Moussa warned……

‘Damascus Hailstorm’ by Layla

There were many heated discussions flying about in Syria during my recent visit there. One expressed the most vehement support of the President and the bloody crackdown on the perceived ‘ignorant’ and ‘treacherous’ protestors. Whilst not a universally held view, it appears to be held by much of the country’s moneyed and empowered.

As is always the case in a potential uprising, it quickly becomes a fight for power and those for and against the current rules become demarcated. Recent demands for political freedom from a regime that has wrapped itself like tree around the spine of the country for forty years have been resolutely resisted. This is largely because the Baathist trunk carries many branches on which sit the army, an enormous security apparatus, the rich elite, and the ruling Assad family. This tree does not intend to lose any leaves this spring.

As the situation develops ominously and with increasing isolationism, everyone is watching and waiting to see if Syria will witness a mass uprising or mass repression. The course of events thus far suggests further oppression looms.

However, in marked contrast to the other towns and cities, the centre of the capital, Damascus, remains relatively calm and unaffected. After one particularly bloody day with protestors there were rumours of a large Damascus protest but instead that day witnessed a torrent of hailstones the size of cherries gushing out of the skies. Perhaps this ‘Damascus Hailstorm’ foreshadowed more foreboding prospects than the sought-after ‘Damascus Spring’.

Syria’s state TV continues to report of ‘armed gangs’ and ‘infiltrators’ using violence against security forces. Though wrought with the stench of propaganda, a surprising number of Syrians believe what they hear. This, as it was undoubtedly intended to, has weakened support for protesters, viewed by some with anger or mistrust.

Additionally, some middle class moderates say that Syrian society is not ready for big change and that there is no credible and strong alternative to the current President. Syria is surrounded by instability and threat – intransigent Israel; post-war Iraq; factitious Lebanon, and the American ‘enemy’ Iran. Significant political reform would be both a blessing and a curse for many on the international stage, but I believe it has the even greater possibility of bettering Syria if the right players got behind it.

In addition, Syria’s middle-classes however do not believe in the possibility of an alternative reality. Too often have I heard the pro-regime defence of “we are different here”, “our mentality is too backward to absorb democracy” and “we do not understand freedom”. While the experience of neighbouring Iraq and its process of ‘democratisation’ are enough to worry Syrians, the irony is that a lot of these same doubters are examples of the educated, travelled and well-read Syrians the country needs to be able to take it into a more developed and universally positive era. However, they too need a coherent, planned and safe rallying point.

These ‘moderates’ may feel sympathetic towards the protestors but they are not yet willing to wholeheartedly take to the pages or the streets with their views.  They have worked long and hard at adapting themselves to the regime’s mechanics and are not suffering enough as a result of its existence to risk being shot of imprisoned for the sake of a vague notion of political freedom.

Syria’s is a society that has been born and raised in fear of both the known and the unknown. Consequently, Syria’s wealthier merchants would have to see their interests really hit hard before deciding to join the fray and risk what it entails. This may happen as a result of the impending EU and US sanctions. Conversely, foreign interference may actually affirm the regime’s accusation of Western intransigence and bolster its internal support.

This is why political and social discourse in Syria right now is so fundamentally necessary and yet gravely lacking. Such discourse needs to present and analyse the concepts of individual transparency, responsibility, accountability and basic human rights and to show how these concepts can ultimately lead to a better society for all.

Just because some Syrians have resigned themselves to paying their way out of trouble or into business does not absolve them from the need to be involved. Better it be a willing and thoughtful act now than a desperate one later. It would be more challenging yet far more progressive to believe in Syria as a country that can be prosperously governed in a non-dogmatic and non-authoritarian way.

Hind Aboud Kabawat – Peaceful change to save Syria

Burning HIzbullah’s flag in Homs yesterday – youtube increasing signs of the growing sectarian lines that are being drawn. This is probably inevitable. Everyone is being forced to take sides. As we have seen elsewhere in the region, the fastest avenue to mobilization of the masses is through the use of sectarian symbols. The blowing up of the Hassan al-Askari mosque in Iraq by Sunni extremists in February 2006 was the final trigger to outright sectarian war. Whether something similar will happen in Syria, one cannot say. But why burn Hizbullah’s flag in Homs?

Syrian government statements that it had defeated the revolution with its brutal crack down were premature. This Friday, Syrians came out to demonstrate across the country despite the growing danger of violence. The absolute numbers of demonstrators may not have been very great, but the number of demonstrations was. As Phil Sands in Damascus reports: “A ring of suburbs around the capital all staged demonstrations yesterday – the first time they have done so on the same day.”

Obama’s speech, no doubt, gave courage to the demonstrators. But it seems clear that the culture of revolution that has spread among the young generation of Syrians will not be uprooted or destroyed by fear or firepower. As I wrote on May 11:

The Syrian opposition has successfully established a culture of resistance that is widespread in Syria and will not be eliminated. Even if demonstrations can be shut down for the time being, the opposition will not be defeated. Syria’s youth, long apolitical and apathetic, is now politicized, mobilized, and passionate.

The government is not succeeded in suppressing the demonstrations even for one Friday. Greater numbers of middle class Syrians are becoming increasingly horrified by the growing brutality. The “shoot-first, ask-questions-later” policy of the government has engendered deep anger.  Instead of stopping the revolution, government force has allowed the opposition to mobilize the Western world to its cause.

The Obama administration seems to have accepted the notion that it must prepare for a post-Assad Syria.

The Syrian opposition has yet to offer up any leadership or unified program for the future. Before Western governments can move more aggressively to support the cause of the opposition, they will have to know who the opposition is. The opposition must develop executive institutions and a program. It is high time that political parties form and set forward their visions of Syria’s future.

Here is what Ammar Abdalhamid is saying. He is absolutely right:

The lack of any obvious opposition alternative to Assad limits what Western governments, including the U.S, can do, says Ammar Abdulhamid, a prominent U.S-based Syrian dissident. “We do want [Obama] to call on Assad to step down at one point soon, but that’s not going to happen until Syrian opposition and activists get together and formulate a viable alternative to manage the transitional period. Only then can we expect world leaders to be more forthcoming in their calls on Assad to step down.”

Anthony Shadid in the NYTimes says the same: Promise of Arab Uprisings Is Threatened by Divisions

…But in the past weeks, the specter of divisions — religion in Egypt, fundamentalism in Tunisia, sect in Syria and Bahrain, clan in Libya — has threatened uprisings that once seemed to promise to resolve questions that have vexed the Arab world since the colonialism era. …

NEWS ROUNDUP FOLLOWS

Syria’s suffers ‘another bloody Friday’
Phil Sands, Last Updated: May 21, 2011

DAMASCUS // Anti-government demonstrations turned deadly again yesterday in Syria, with at least 34 people killed by security services, according to human rights activists.

Previous Fridays had seemed to weaken the protest movement, with thousands of dissidents and residents of restive neighbourhoods in detention, a communications blackout and military units deployed in strength to prevent public gatherings.

Yesterday, however, as anti-government demonstrations entered a third month, the number of protesters on the streets grew in strength, activists and analysts said, with rallies also spreading across the country.

A ring of suburbs around the capital all staged demonstrations yesterday – the first time they have done so on the same day,

footage posted online by activists showed. There were also rallies in the central cities of Homs and Hama, while others took place in the north, east, south and west of the country.

Compared to last Friday, when six demonstrators were killed – the lowest number of fatalities in weeks – by early yesterday evening at least 34 demonstrators, including a child, had died in shootings by the security services. The deaths occurred mostly in Homs…..

“The security thought they had many of these places under control but as soon as they leave a neighbourhood, the protesters return, and they seem to be even more active than before,” said Abdul Karim Rehawi, head of the Syrian Human Rights League.State media did, however, acknowledge a dozen rallies yesterday.

“Gatherings of scores and hundreds of citizens took place in a number of provinces after Friday prayers, chanting for freedom, mostly dispersing after a short time,” the official news agency SANA reported.

It also reported that security force personnel and civilians had been shot at by “armed groups’ in Homs and near Idleb. Officials have consistently blamed the killings, including the death of more than 120 security service personnel, on Islamic terrorists with support from foreign countries.

That message is certainly believed by at least some Syrians, who talk of a plot by the country’s enemies to weaken Damascus. There are also significant fears, mainly among minority groups, that a sectarian civil war will break out if the largely secular government loses control. Syria is made of different sectarian and ethnic groups, with a Sunni Muslim majority.

Most Syrians are not taking part in demonstrations, and President Bashar al Assad, 11 years into his rule, still appears to enjoy a wide base of popular support.

That popularity, while real and widespread, is dwindling as the crisis continues, according to one Syrian political analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The silent majority is still quiet which is taken as a sign of support for the president,” he said. “But I see indications that [support] is slowly starting to shift as doubts are settling it.

“It’s still not too late for him to keep that majority on his side but it will take decisive political reforms. Things cannot just be allowed to drift as they are. At the moment, there is no actual policy; it’s just crisis management that is failing to managing the crisis.”

Clinton: “No appetite … No willingness for aggressive steps in Syria!” Thanks to FLC

“Couric: In Syria, Secretary Clinton, the government crackdown has killed an estimated 700 people in the last two months. What took so long for the Administration to put these new sanctions into place?

Clinton: Well, Katie, I don’t think it took long at all. I think we wanted to coordinate with our allies in the European Union, to talk to our friends and partners in the region, especially those that border Syria, Israel, Iraq, and others. And we also wanted to make it clear that, as the President just said in his speech, President Asad of Syria can either lead this transition or get out of the way. And unfortunately, the evidence thus far is that he’s not providing the kind of leadership that is needed.

Couric: So are you willing to say he should get out of the way; President Asad must go?

Clinton: Well, I think President Obama was very clear. And what we want is to continue to support the voices of democracy, those who are standing against the brutality. But we’re also well aware every situation is different, and in this one, Asad has said a lot of things that you didn’t hear from other leaders in the region about the kind of changes he would like to see. That may all be out the window, or he may have one last chance.

Couric: At the same time, this Syrian regime is close to Iran. They’re getting support from Iran to – for their tactics of suppression, if you will. They’re – they support terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. So why not just say he needs to be removed?

Clinton: Well, you’re right that Iran is supporting them, and the President mentioned that in his speech today. It hasn’t been publicly talked about as much as the facts warrant, and we’re calling them out on it. But I think we also know that there are many different forces at work in Syria, like in so many of the countries in the region. And we think it would be better if the people of Syria themselves made it clear to Asad that there have to be changes. And part of what the President – our President – Obama was doing today, was to say, “Do you want to end up like Iran, Syria? And President Asad, do you want to end up like a leader of a country that is further and further isolated?” So each of these situations has to be carefully calibrated, and I think the President got it just right.

Couric: So is the U.S. pursuing regime change in Syria?

Clinton: What we are doing is exactly what President Obama said: Either you lead the transition or get out of the way. How that happens is up to the people of that country….

Couric: Why does the killing of civilians in Libya justify U.S. military involvement, but the killing of civilians in Syria does not?

Clinton: Well, part of the reason is look at the difference in the reaction of the world…. we also know that there’s no one size fits all …

Couric: Why not exercise U.S. leadership, though, Secretary Clinton, and galvanize the international community to take more aggressive steps in Syria?

Clinton: There’s no appetite for that, Katie. There’s no willingness…. “

amnesty international

The Syrian authorities must carry out a prompt, impartial investigation into reports that a number of bodies were unearthed near the city of Dera’a and into how those deaths occurred, Amnesty International said today.

Sources have told Amnesty International that local residents on the outskirts of the southern city of Dera’a yesterday found a shallow, unmarked grave containing the bodies of at least five people – said to be ‘Abd al-Razaq Abazaid and his four sons, Samer, Samir, Suliman and Mohamed Abazaid.

France Sees Majority Backing Syria Condemnation at UN, AFP Says
2011-05-17 By Inal Ersan

May 17 (Bloomberg) — France’s foreign minister Alain Juppe said a majority consensus is forming within the United Nation to condemn Syrian government violence against protesters, Agence- France Presse reported.

Lower Violence, Promises of Dialogue Reduce Tension in Damascus Syria Report

Another week of protests across Syria has ended with hopes of less violent future demonstrations and promises by the Government that it would launch a national dialogue to help find a solution to the stalemate.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has the “desire to coordinate the opposition” Syria Report

“People on the street are getting tired, they’re running out of resources, and they don’t have that much experience,” said one protest coordinator outside Syria. “They recognize, and we have to recognize, that the Brothers are better organized and better funded.”

“Religion is the most important aspect in my life,” said one conservative, Sunni landowner in Damascus. “But we do not like Salafism—we all want to live in a moderate community in peace,” he said, addressing the government line that the hard-line Islamist movement has stoked the protests.”

Too Big to Fail?
Is Syria’s repressive dictatorship really so crucial to Mideast peace and stability that we can’t let it fail? The Obama administration still seems to think so.
BY AARON DAVID MILLER | MAY 12, 2011, Foreign policy

Bad options, bad outcomes. So, for now, we watch and wait to see where the arc on the Assads is headed — north or south. But if the Assads do survive, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Washington at some point resumes a business-as-usual posture with the only surviving repressive Arab dictator that’s too big to fail.

From Pomed

Syria Isolated in International Community, Egypt Quietly Supporting: The Turtle Bay blog at Foreign Policy obtained confidential documents from U.N. negotiations demonstrating that Egypt has been providing Syria with diplomatic cover. Egypt not only supported efforts to derail a U.N. Security Council vote against Syria, but actively proposed resolutions affirming the “principle of non-interference” in matters of state.  Syria has dropped its bid for a seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council; Kuwait will replace it as a candidate.  Kuwait’s ambassador to the U.N. stated that Syria had not withdrawn its nomination completely, but that the two countries were simply swapping terms.

ArabCrunch: (Warning) Syrian’s Secret Police Main Suspect Behind Man-In-The-Middle Attack against Facebook Users in Syria
2011-05-16

It seems that Syrian secret police or “Mukhabrat” is behind issuing forged facebook’s security certificate in Syria when accessing via https connection or man in the middle attack, which enables them to get users password and spy on Syrian …

Obama adopts Bush's policy on Syria

The Syrian people have shown their courage in demanding a transition to democracy. President Assad now has a choice: He can lead that transition, or get out of the way.

The Syrian government must stop shooting demonstrators and allow peaceful protests. It must release political prisoners and stop unjust arrests. It must allow human rights monitors to have access to cities like Daraa; and start a serious dialogue to advance a democratic transition. Otherwise, President Assad and his regime will continue to be challenged from within and will continue to be isolated abroad.

EU will impose sanctions on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad

The foreign ministers on Monday will call for an immediate halt to violence against protesters in Syria and demand that Assad address the causes of the upheavals in the country.

Diplomats in Brussels said the 27 governments would call for a “national dialogue” in Syria, including a concrete timetable for political reform.

According to Politico.

Republican Senator Mark Kirk said “He should have been harder. He should have called on [Assad] to step down.”

Senator John McCain, said “I would have liked for him to say [Assad] should step down, but that was good.”

Freshman Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, introduced a resolution last week with McCain and Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) urging Obama to expand sanctions against Assad and his top lieutenants.

“I think Assad needs to get out of the way, leave power, and I wish the president would have said that,” Rubio told POLITICO. “I have no hope that Assad is a reformer. He is a murderer like his father before him.”

The sanctions are a “start,” Rubio added, but “I don’t think the Syrian people are going to be happy until Assad is out of the way.”

Under Assad’s rule, the Syrian regime “has chosen the path of murder and the mass arrests of its citizens,” Obama said in his speech at the State Department. Hundreds of unarmed protesters have been killed in clashes with the Syrian military.

Ros-Lehtinen Statement on Obama Middle East and North Africa Speech

(WASHINGTON) – U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, issued the following statement on President Obama’s speech on U.S. policy in the Middle East and North Africa: “I was pleased to hear the President express U.S. support for the advancement of democracy and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa. However, it is difficult to assess the President’s goals and objectives for the region when considering some of his most significant decisions since taking office, which have included pressuring Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians while at the same time reaching out to the Syrian and Iranian regimes.

“The President has now sanctioned Syria’s Assad for gross human rights violations against the Syrian people, yet he still envisions a role for Assad in Syria’s political future. And while the President rightfully drew parallels between Syria and Iran as partners in repression, no action has been taken to hold Ahmadinejad and Khamenei accountable for their brutality. We did not hear a plan to vigorously enforce all sanctions laws on the books to bring the greatest pressure possible on the Iranian and Syrian regimes.

“We did not hear a pledge from the President to cut off U.S. funding to a Palestinian Authority now aligned with Hamas, nor did we hear a pledge to veto the scheme to attain UN recognition of a Palestinian state without negotiating peace with Israel. I am also disappointed that the President failed to call on the Palestinian leadership to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, and instead imposed new pressure on Israel to make concessions on its borders.

“On Libya, after almost 60 days of U.S. involvement, we have no further clarity on our priorities, goals, and the anticipated extent of our commitment there. “I am deeply concerned that the President did not rule out providing aid to Egypt if the Muslim Brotherhood is part of the government. The U.S. should only provide assistance to Egypt after we know that Egypt’s new government will not include the Muslim Brotherhood and will be democratic, pro-American, and committed to abiding by peace agreements with Israel. Further, considering our own national debt, we cannot afford to forgive up to $1 billion of Egypt’s debt. “On the President’s proposal for Enterprise Funds in Egypt and Tunisia, we must keep in mind that the performance of such funds in Eastern Europe and South Africa has been mixed.

If approved, I will seek to require a portion of the profits generated be returned to the U.S. Treasury. “Going forward, I hope that the President will work closely with Congress to advance a comprehensive and consistent regional policy focused on protecting and promoting U.S. security

Three comments on the sanctioning of President Assad from the May 18 Post

Souri333 writes:

“The US obviously did not want to topple Assad. They just wanted to exploit the situation to create cards to play against him in future negotiations. The US thinks now that Assad will be weaker and thus more willing to give concessions. Assad is stubborn and he is not going to accept that. He is going to restore the balance by escalating the regional situation against the US interests.”

Abughassan writes:

“the sanctions will be seen as an escalation at a time when what is needed is dialogue. if that dialogue does not happen and the promised reform measures do not materialize, then we will all know that Bashar can not lead Syria since his legitimacy now is conditional upon enacting reform. Another problem with those symbolic sanctions is that they are not likely to change the regime’s behavior and can only serve to insult Bashar and make the regime less cooperative and more stubborn. Those sanctions make sense only if the US is actively working to remove the regime, so I am eager to see if that what is being cooked. The third problem with those sanctions is that they are very likely to complicate any future efforts to reduce tension and polarization in the region…”

Shai writes:

“I never suggested the international community should not pressure the Assad regime to make serious changes, reform, and lead Syria in the direction of a free and democratic society. But in some cases, it may be unwise to oust an existing regime, thinking whatever comes in its stead must be better. Clinton referred to Assad not long ago as a “reformer”. She didn’t anticipate what would occur thereafter, but she probably didn’t throw out this term accidentally. The Obama Administration may still prefer a Syria under Assad than either civil war, or some other form of dictatorship.”

George:

Obama clearly said “al-Assad can lead the transition.” The latter part of the same sentence is not important. The new US sanctions announced on the previous day was only symbolic and have no substance. So actually he endorsed al-Assad’s rule.

The call of general strike on last Wednesday ended in total failure, even miserable, and thus, exposed the UNPOPULARITY of anti-government movement inside Syria. It is time for protesters to go back home and to resume a normal life.

Sanctioning President Assad – what can it accomplish?

Most importantly, it will help President Obama in his presidential campaign. He can stand as someone who acts firmly against Arab dictators. He killed Bin Laden and sanctioned Bashar al-Assad. He takes decisive action and stands with the Arab street and for democracy. This will serve him well in his campaign. It also temporarily hushes the chorus of right wing critics in Washington who want to weaken Syria and end diplomatic relations with the regime. It also ends criticism that he has treated Syria with kid gloves while treating Libya with bombs.

Oddly, the sanctions against Syria’s top government figures come at a time when the regime is gaining control over the protest movement and suppressing dissent. The sanctions come too late to add momentum to the protest movement. They may prolong the movement but will not topple the regime.

They will add to Syria’s economic difficulties as the regime seeks to regain legitimacy in the future. The opposition failed to divide the Syrian army from the president, as happened in Egypt. They also failed to provoke a confessional split in the army as happened in Lebanon. Sunni soldiers have not split from Alawis, despite all the talk about “shabbihas,” which is code for Alawis.

The fall back position of the Syrian opposition must be to stifle the economy and work for a the ruin of the regime, when it can no longer pay the bills. These sanctions will help in a small way toward that end. Not clear to me is whether diplomats, senators, and heads of state can meet with President Assad while he is proscribed by Presidential order? The next logical step is is for Europe to join in the same targeted sanctions and eventually for European trade sanctions.  President George Bush urged Europe to join the US in imposing trade sanctions on Syria, but in vain.

David Ignatius argued in his Washington Post Op-ed – Bashar al-Assad’s endgame: Can a bloodbath be avoided? – that “major nations conclude that [Assad’s} regime cannot survive.” He also writes that “The governments of France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan… are all said to have concluded that the Assad regime cannot survive”…. and Turkey will not support Assad.

Who in the world do they think is going to unseat Assad? This is most perplexing. Western leaders will certainly get a weakened Syria and a more isolated Assad from these sanctions but not regime change. Obama gains. Opposition leaders get more support. Syrians will get poorer.

U.S. slaps sanctions on Syrian president, top aides
By Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn, Wed May 18, 2011, (Reuters) –

The United States imposed sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and six other top aides for human rights abuses on Wednesday in a dramatic escalation of pressure on Syria to cease its brutal crackdown on protesters.

Targeting Assad personally with sanctions, which the United States and European Union have so far avoided, is a significant slap at Damascus and raises questions about whether Washington and the West may ultimately seek Assad’s removal from power….

The move, announced by the Treasury Department, freezes any assets of the Syrian officials that are in the United States or otherwise fall within U.S. jurisdiction and it generally bars U.S. individuals and companies from dealing with them.

In addition to Assad, the Treasury said the sanctions would target Vice President Farouq al-Shara, Prime Minister Adel Safar, Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar, Defense Minister Ali Habib as well as Abdul Fatah Qudsiya, the head of Syrian military intelligence, and Mohammed Dib Zaitoun, director of the political security directorate.

While it was not immediately clear what practical effect the sanctions would have or whether the seven had significant assets that would be captured by the U.S. move, the symbolic gesture was profound.

“The actions the administration has taken today send an unequivocal message to President Assad, the Syrian leadership, and regime insiders that they will be held accountable for the ongoing violence and repression in Syria,” said Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen said in a written statement.

“President al-Assad and his regime must immediately end the use of violence, answer the calls of the Syrian people for a more representative government, and embark upon the path of meaningful democratic reform,” he added.

European governments agreed on Tuesday to tighten sanctions against the Syrian leadership, but said they would decide next week about whether to include Assad on the list….

Defiant Syria denounces US sanctions on Assad AFP
Defiant Syria denounces US sanctions on Assad AFP/File – Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is seen in 2009. The United States has told Assad to lead a transition …
by Jocelyne Zablit

DAMASCUS (AFP) – Syria on Thursday denounced US sanctions imposed on President Bashar al-Assad and top aides, saying they were part of long-time efforts by Washington to impose its will in the region to Israel’s benefit. “The US measures are part of a series of sanctions imposed by successive US administrations against the Syrian people as part of a regional scheme, aimed primarily at serving Israel’s interests,” the official SANA news agency said.

Bashar al-Assad’s endgame: Can a bloodbath be avoided?
By David Ignatius in Wash Post

Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is becoming increasingly isolated and vulnerable as major nations conclude that his regime cannot survive. The newly urgent question is how to negotiate a transition arrangement that will avert a bloodbath there between Assad’s ruling Alawite sect and the Sunni majority.

The governments of France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, which at times in the past have been supportive of Assad, are all said to have concluded that the Assad regime cannot survive the repercussions of the violence it loosed on Syrian protesters in recent weeks. Turkey, too, which initially seemed eager to broker a compromise for Assad, also appears less supportive.

France, which a decade ago was Assad’s champion, is now said to have concluded that major powers, including Paris and Washington, should signal publicly that it is time for Assad to leave office. But the White House Tuesday appeared to be weighing whether to make one last attempt at brokering the kind of reforms that Assad has said for years he wanted but has never implemented.

The United States initially held back from personally sanctioning Assad, deciding instead to concentrate its fire on the hard-liners around him. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday, however, that the United States is preparing additional sanctions. Many U.S. analysts see Assad as having squandered any chance he had to be a credible reformer.

Israel, which seemed for a time to prefer “the devil we know” in Assad, has told the United States it doesn’t endorse this argument any longer.

The challenge for policymakers as Assad’s power fades is to find a transition process that can avoid a Libya-style military confrontation. The Syrian version of regime change could be far bloodier because of the deep enmity between Sunnis and the Alawite minority that has governed since Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, seized power in a coup in 1971. Already, in mixed cities such as Latakia and Homs, there is said to have been ethnic killing that could presage a much wider pattern of violence. Violence in Syria could also spill over into Lebanon……

The Syrian government has issued an order forbidding any demonstrations tomorrow – Friday.

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Israeli official to meet members of Syrian opposition on post-Assad Syria under Austrian conservatives’ sponsorship

Popular Uprising in Syria: Beware of the Henchmen from Within
By Reinoud Leenders for RUSI.org

Even though it faces a range of protests, Syria is unlikely to face popular-led regime change. Instead, unremitting instability and a standoff between protestors and the regime are more likely to follow leading to a combination of piecemeal reforms and more violence. However, internal challenges to the regime should not be ruled out…..

Anthony Shadid and Joshua Landis in 10 minute radio clip on Syria – NPR

Syrian Sources say there was no shelling in Homs by tanks or anything else, as was reported in the press.

From a trusted friend in Syria:

Was in Homs again yesterday. We saw no evidence of shelling anywhere and most of the town was normal. One neighborhood, Bab Amr was blocked off and deserted. Was also in Aleppo and I think the story of thousands of students at the university was also exagerrated. More like 100. People there told me Aleppo is really normal and very few demonstrations have happened.

Golan: http://youtu.be/ekgkuAaTjPg – Syrians crossing into the Golan – Mundasiin?

From NYTimes: In the Golan Heights, about 100 Palestinians living in Syria breached a border fence and crowded into the village of Majdal Shams, waving Palestinian flags. Troops fired on the crowd, killing four people. The border unrest could represent a new phase in the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

LA Times [Reg]: SYRIA: Videos show large student protest in Aleppo, the second largest city, 2011-05-12

Anthony Shadid in NYTimes – in Homs, and residents reported that… after a day of shelling and gunfire, and sporadic shots heard before dawn, the area was relatively quiet, a resident there, Abu Haydar, said by telephone.

One of the few Western journalists who has been able to get in to Syria to see the protests there and the crackdown by the regime of President Bashar Assad says he was “surprised at how much support President Assad himself still has.”

Martin Fletcher, associate editor at The Times of London, spoke with All Things Considered host Robert Siegel earlier today.

Fletcher just left Syria after six days there (during which he posed as a tourist; more on that below) and says that while the outside world has gotten the impression that most Syrians are rising up against Assad, he came away thinking things are more complicated.

“People hate the people around [Assad],” Fletcher said, “for their corruption; for their brutality.” But many of the Syrians he met, still believe that the president is something of a reformer and they “like the way he stands up to the United States and Israel.”

Others, Fletcher added, buy into the idea that if Assad were to step down then sectarian violence might flare. That’s a theory that Syrian writer Yassin Haj Saleh told Robert earlier this week is nothing more than “blackmail” coming from the Assad regime.

As for how he was able to do his work while in Syria, Fletcher said he left behind many of journalism’s modern tools — particularly his laptop. He took a new cellphone with no phone numbers programmed into it so that authorities couldn’t search it for contacts. And he wrote his reports in long-hand, before dictating them over the phone to his newsroom back in London….

Authorities and protesters split on whether Syrian rebellion is over
Phil Sands in Syria reports for the National

…….. Many Syrians – arguably the overwhelming majority, although reliably canvassing public opinion is impossible – believe Mr Assad should be given time and space to deliver on his promises.

His opponents insist, however, that the president is either unwilling or unable to bring about real political change to the autocratic system of government established four decades ago by his father and predecessor as president, Hafez al Assad.

Mr Amin, the former government official, insisted that the younger Assad can still be an agent of reform and that the outbreak of demonstrations had shown Syria’s elite they can no longer do business as they have done for the past 40 years. “After this crisis, the authorities understand that now they need to be serious about reforms, political and economic, that they must do it and do it now,” he said. “There will be big changes. The leadership understands the problems on the ground.”

That view, however, was brushed aside by an adviser to the government who said he saw little sign the increased freedoms and equality of opportunity demanded by Syrians would materialise .

“They are still living from Friday to Friday. It’s crisis management. There is no long-term strategy,” he said. “I don’t see them having the map that shows the way out of this.”

While anecdotally there is protest fatigue among many Syrians, the young activists playing a key role in the uprising have not been deterred by arrests, beatings and other acts of intimidation.

One dissident released by the security services after being arrested for the first time and jailed for more than two weeks said: “They made me sign a promise that I would not go to another protest, but of course I will.”

He said he had been beaten by his interrogators every day and had shared a cell with dozens of other activists and ordinary people gobbled up in mass arbitrary arrests.

“After that, I’m less afraid than before,” he said. “There is still fear, but not so much as there was. The protests are not finished, the military solution hasn’t stopped this.

“It will stop when we can walk freely in the street without the security coming and arresting us for no reason. It will stop when I’m allowed to live my life.”

[email protected]

Khaddam to Israeli Channel2: “NATO & Turkish forces will finish off the Assad regime in weeks!”

Residents fleeing Syrian town tell of arrests, terror Washington Post

WSJ [Reg]: Syria’s Sluggish Economy Adds to Regime’s Troubles, 2011-05-16

DAMASCUS—The Syrian government, stuck in a stalemate with protesters, also is facing the longer-term challenge of keeping the country’s already creaky economy from collapsing. As in Egypt and Tunisia, economic woes played a part in the protests …

Erdogan on Charlie Rose: A friend writes:

Watching Erdogan on Charlie Rose now. He said: “I’ve sat beside Bashar in the passenger seat several times while he drove his car in Damascus and around Syria. We used to get out of the car often in the streets and I know for a fact that the Syrian people love him. I saw this first hand”.. “we are talking to the Syrian government and to the Syrian opposition”… “I asked president Bashar to deliver the reforms he his doing today a year ago. Syria was late”…”I wish Syria stability and safety but this is in the hands of the Syrian people”

Inside Story – Turkey’s changing tunes on Syria

U.S., EU prod nuclear agency over Syria, 2011-05-15

WASHINGTON, May 15 (UPI) — The secretive nuclear program in violence-wracked Syria should be investigated further by international regulators, the United States and European Union say.

The allies have been lobbying the International Atomic Energy Agency to step up pressure on Damascus to disclose its nuclear history and plans, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

The renewed push would place more pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has been battling anti-government protesters for three months and is resisting calls to step down.

“We’re looking to increasingly isolate Assad,” said a European official who asked not to be identified…..

Syria: Britain Pushes for Sanctions for Bashar Al-Assad
2011-05-12, Bruno Waterfield

May 12 (Telegraph) — Britain has proposed that President Bashar al-Assad and four of his inner circle be added to a Brussels travel ban and asset freeze list as EU warned the “net was tightening” around the Syrian leader. Britain and France were angered last week after EU divisions prevented the Syrian president being added to a list of 13 officials targeted with sanctions, but such differences now appear to have been overcome. “It will only be a matter of days until he is added,” one official said.

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Syria Press Release:

Today Dr Sami Khiyami, Syria’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, issued the following statement:
“Her Excellency Mrs Al-Assad and her three children are not in the UK. The First Lady is in Damascus, focusing on internal issues including her programme of empowerment of the Syrian people. Her children are also in Damascus and, contrary to these ill-intended rumours, only hold a Syrian passport.”

Clinton: “The US to increase the pressure on Syria”

(Reuters)- “… “We are going to hold the Syrian government accountable,” she said after meeting the Danish foreign minister. “The United States along with Denmark and other colleagues are going to look for ways to increase the pressure.”…”

Germany, European Partners Summon Syrian Ambassadors, Threaten More Sanctions
By Associated Press

May 11 (Washington Post) — BERLIN Germany says several European countries are summoning Syrian ambassadors and threatening new sanctions targeting the countrys leadership if it doesnt halt the repression of protesters.

What Regime Change in Syria Would Mean
Paul R. Pillar, March 29, 2011

Accelerating unrest in Syria, with the regime scrambling to find some combination of concession and repression to stay in power, has regime change juices in the United States flowing. The Washington Post editorial page says “it is time to recognize that Syria’s ruler is an unredeemable thug—and that the incipient domestic uprising offers a potentially precious opportunity.” Elliott Abrams declares that with regimes “falling like dominoes” in the Middle East, “Syria is next.” He issues a clarion call to rid the world of the “murderous clan” and “bloody regime” of Bashar al-Assad…..

The talking up of the idea of toppling Assad exhibits some of the same shortcomings, however, as earlier agitation for changes of regime elsewhere. There is underestimation of how much worthwhile business could be conducted with the incumbent regime, however distasteful it may be. There is overestimation of how much the policies of the country in question are specific to the incumbent regime, and thus overestimation as well of how much change in those policies would ensue from a change of regime. There is also a general failure to think much about who or what would replace the current regime. ….

BBC: Inside Syria’s ‘windowless basements’, 2011-05-11

Syria authorities have banned foreign journalists from entering the country, but Times’ chief foreign correspondent Martin Fletcher attempted to enter the country as a tourist. He was arrested by the authorities, taken to a windowless basement …

Time.com – No Sectarian Rifts

The activists insist that theirs is not a sectarian agenda, despite the regime’s attempts to portray them as Islamists. There is real cross-sectarian support for the protests, they say. They have a good case: represented among the activists working in the flat is the full cross-section of Syrian society — Sunni Muslim, Alawite, Druze, and Christian. The group even helped to disseminate a popular chant that has helped to minimize sectarian rifts: “One, One, The Syrian People, We are One.”

Hassan, a younger activist hailing from Lattakia, is unimpressed at suggestions the Alawite minority is on the regime’s side just because they are tied by religion to the ruling Assad family. “In the end, we are all Syrian. This regime is not Alawite, it’s Al-Assad’s regime, his private club and mafia. Even Alawites don’t like it”. And so he finds himself, an Alawite, fighting an uprising against an Alawite regime.

Note from Kenan MD MRCS MSc ORTH – Syrian in England:

I do not believe that there is no alternative for Assad rule, Syria is stronger than one person and it will endure this hardship but I do not think he will. in the eyes of so many people the regime which killed so many (more than 800) has lost its legitimacy. Syria is just like any other country have structural issues, and I compare the problem of jihadist fundamentalist with the west problem of racism and fascism which grew under dictatorships but is kept in check in real democracy which-for the first time ever- we have a realistic chance it will emerge. Do not be taken yourself by the regime tactics of scaremongering well illustrated by Rami Makhlouf interview with the New York Times. After more than 50 years Rule of Baathist we have more sectarianism and fundamentalism than we ever had and letting this squashed with no legitimate answer to the blood spilled will only seed the sectarian war we are all worried about. We should not give the Syrian regime any comfort that his siege and counter misinformation is working, because it will not work in this new information age. The issue of killed military personnel is interesting, there have been many credible reports about soldiers being killed for refusing to fire on protestors or joining them. There are many Videos confirming this including one showing people in Deraa giving medical support to wounded soldiers. I have not seen a single credible evidence produced by the government of the alleged Salafis they are fighting.

Report: Syrian Troops Shelling Residential Areas
By ZEINA KARAM 2011-05-11

BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian army shelled residential areas in central Syria on Wednesday, a sharp escalation in the government’s attempts to crush a popular revolt against President Bashar Assad’s rule, according to activists and witnesses.

Heavy gunfire was heard as at least three residential neighborhoods were hit by tank fire in the besieged city of Homs, which has experienced some of the largest anti-government demonstrations in recent weeks. “There were loud explosions and gunfire from automatic rifles throughout the night and until this morning,” a frightened resident told The Associated Press by telephone. “The area is totally besieged. We are being shelled.”

Activists in Damascus who were in touch with residents also reported shelling in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city and home to one of its two oil refineries. The witnesses and activists, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared reprisals, said the shelling was targeting the Bab Sbaa, Bab Amr and Jouret el Aris neighborhoods. The eyewitness said several people who fled Bab Sbaa through fields told him the area was badly damaged and that the shelling seemed indiscriminate. Syrian authorities are determined to crush the uprising,…

AlexRodriguez writes:

Khaled Meshaal, exiled Hamas leader based from Damascus, calls the Arab spring beautiful (9:00) and that freedom and democracy is needed in Syria (10:35) during his interview with France 24 in Cairo at the sidelines of the recent reconciliation ceremony with Fatah.

Syria’s regional role offers a way out
By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS – There are two views about how to deal with the snowballing crisis that is emerging between Damascus and the international community. One says that strained relations with both the United States and Europe are not as bad as they seems – claiming that Syria has been here before. Another argument goes that Damascus cannot live in isolation, having worked very hard at repairing damaged relations with Paris and Washington.

Yassin Haj Saleh’s last article, in al-Hayat, in Arabic

Kilo’s, here and here

KURDS

The Syrian Studies Association announces the publication of the latest issue of the Syrian Studies Association Newsletter, XVI: 1 (Spring 2011) at: https://ojcs.siue.edu/ojs/index.php/ssa/index

Click on TABLE OF CONTENTS to access the issue and/or individual articles.

This thematic focus of this issue is on the Kurds of Syria. A “state of the art” article by

• Prof. Jordi Tejel is the definitive word as of now on the study of the Kurds in Syria including a review of the history of the scholarship since the beginning of the French mandate and a 6-page bibliography.

• Dr. Robert Lowe offers insights on the challenges and opportunities facing scholars of the Kurds of Syria;
• Eva Savelsberg and Siamend Hajo provide an assessment of Bashar al-Asad’s reign for relations between Kurds and the Syrian state; and
• Prof. Paolo Pinto explains the social, political, and cultural significance of Sufism among Kurds in Syria.

Two book reviews, one of

• Prof. Tejel’s *Syria’s Kurds: History, Politics, and Society* (2009) and one of a book in Turkish on Syria’s undocumented Kurds, round out coverage of this topic.

In addition, there are reviews of books on Syrian Jewry during the Tanzimat period; European images of Damascus from the mid-19th and early 20th centuries; Syrian migrant workers in Lebanon; the economics of the early Islamic period in Syria; and on Syrian-Iranian relations during the 1980s as well as a letter from the Association’s president and news of the association.

The SSA is an international association organized to encourage and promote research and scholarly understanding of Syria in all periods and in all academic disciplines.

Geoffrey Robertson, a former U.N. judge and author of Crimes Against Humanity – How to prosecute Syria for Crimes

Document reveals Israel stripped 140,000 Palestinians of residency rights.

(Reuters) – Turkish security forces killed at least 12 Kurdish militants

after they were spotted crossing the border from Iraq, the military said on Saturday, while a soldier was killed by a mine blast.

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas were killed during operations Friday and early Saturday in the southeast province of Sirnak, the military statement said.

The soldier died in Hakkari, another insurgency-plagued province bordering both Iran and Iraq, state-run Antaolian news agency said. Some PKK fighters operate from bases in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq.

The PKK ended a six-month ceasefire in February and there have been fears of rising violence before a parliamentary election on June 12 that is expected to result in a comfortable third successive victory for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party.

<b>Jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has threatened “war” unless the government enters talks after the election to end a separatist conflict that has dragged on for 27 years, killing more than 40,000 people.</b>

The PKK last week claimed responsibility for an ambush that killed a police officer and wounded another in the northern Black Sea province of Kastamonu after an election rally by Erdogan, and two more police were killed this week.

The PKK says police have been attacked in retaliation for operations and arrests in the southeast. Erdogan has accused the militants of being behind several petrol bomb attacks on the offices of his AK Party.

Erdogan Says Assad Must Take Immediate Steps to Democracy
2011-05-12  By Benjamin Harvey

May 12 (Bloomberg) — Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad can’t deny his people’s “indispensible requests for peace and democracy.”

Assad should take immediate democratic steps as the momentum toward democracy in the Middle East is “irreversible,” Erdogan said in an interview with PBS’s Charlie Rose in Ankara aired today. Turkey views the situation in Syria as almost “like a domestic affair” because of the 800-kilometer (500-mile) border and close relations between the two countries, Erdogan said.

Assad is “a good friend of mine,” and the two have had “long conversations” about changing the election system, permitting the formation of political parties and releasing political prisoners in Syria, Erdogan said.

Marwan writes:

Mr JOSHUA LANDIS About two months later I sent you email and the days proved what I said. I read your essay  What Will a Post Assad Syria Look Like?  and I have some notes:

The first note about Syrian army , I want to tell you about some thing until now Syria Special Forces and Syrian elite units  never have interfered  or entered in the cities and if it happened it occurred into limited range, so when you speak  about split this is very unlikely  because if these units didn’t split I thing special forces and elite units won’t be split and this idea made by Media and there isn’t  real reasons to this splite because I know Syrian army  and how the army discipline.

I think  you know our army ideological army and our army not army for parades. Second  note. our economy very stable and strong so I  astonished when you speak about  the government won’t be able to pay wages. Third note . in my opinion  Syria and Syrian people  have passed the critical situation “civil  war”  and this is the most important  issue in this  crisis. With my best regards

Abraham

I found your article uncharacteristically pessimistic. Despite my own apprehensions I am cautiously optimistic that events in Syria will not spiral out of control nor descend into chaos or civil war. You might be most pessimistic when the news is at its worst as am I. We need to step back and look at the whole flawed picture.

The Assad regime is certainly responsible for much of the deterioration, especially with the restriction of outside news media, ruthless tactics of suppression (even with the existence of armed elements bent on vitiating the nature flow of the a small but genuine populist movement) and poor PR, especially with the disastrous Rami Makkhlouf interview. However, when take the macro view, there seem to be fewer and fewer protesters as time passes. This is directly opposite what happened in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, even though this is an not apples to apples comparison.

Syrians, as you know, instinctively eschew chaos and pandemonium. I think this will allow Bashar more time in which if he is realistic and serious about meeting the people’s legitimate demands and not just trying to preserve the family dynasty, we may have a much better outcome than any of us could have imagined. If that is wishful thinking, than I am still an idealist and the scenario you laid out will prove me wrong.

Susan D.

Dear Joshua,

The emails from Syria Comment with the headlines you run are shocking me these days. You seem to have taken a “line” in the choice of headlines and in your comments, which is quite contrary to everyone I spoke to in Damascus over Easter (Sunnis, Alawis), and people I have spoken to in Australia from the Lebanese and Syrian community….

I fear for the future of Syria and its people but you seem to be blase about it and trust the protesters as if you could equate them with the protesters in Cairo, or those anti-war protesters in Europe pre-Iraq war.

What about the resignations of Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya reporters? What about the call from Qaradawi, what about the Salafists, what about the weapons and money found, what about the soldiers killed, what about Khadam, Bandar bin-Sultan, Hariri, and their hand in things. What about the US long-term plan to destabilize Syria? What about Israel’s use of agents in Syria and Lebanon and its plans? What about the collapse of a country and the possible killings of tens of thousands of people?? What about secular Syria??….

Robert B. Zoellick, World Bank:

Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs

Legitimate institutions and empowered citizens can make a big difference. But citizens still need jobs.

In the Middle East, regimes have tried to keep a lid on rising unemployment with a mix of political repression, public sector jobs, and subsidies on food, fuel and other necessities.

These measures bought time, but little else.

Expensive and inefficient, they have fed nepotism not need; cronyism not competitiveness; corruption not capitalism.

The International Labor Organization estimates that the unemployment rate for 15 to 24 year olds in the Middle East is 25 percent. Our survey of 1,500 youth found that the self declared or perceived jobless rate was even higher, at 35 to 40 percent. Young women in Egypt and Jordan confront unemployment of 40 percent.

The direct opportunity cost of youth unemployment in the Arab world is estimated at up to $50 billion a year.

Governments in the Middle East now face huge expectations from their young populations – they want jobs now. Inaction poses risks. So will the wrong actions.

Policy reform will be as important as money.

I am a pessimist about Syria’s future because the regime will dig in its heels and fight to the end. The Syrian opposition has successfully established a culture of resistance that is widespread in Syria and will not be eliminated. Even if demonstrations can be shut down for the time being, the opposition will not be defeated. Syria’s youth, long apolitical and apathetic, is now politicized, mobilized, and passionate. All the same, the opposition remains divided and leaderless, which presents great dangers for a post-Assad Syria.

It is hard to see any soft landing for the regime or the people. It is also hard to see how the regime will be brought down short of economic collapse and its inability to pay wages, which would lead to wider social defections and a possible splitting of the military, as happened in Lebanon and Libya. If the military splits, both sides would have ample firepower to do real damage. Large sections of Syria could fall out of state control. Regions not divided by sect could remain fairly quite and stable for a time if there is a unified political leadership to step into the vacuum. Otherwise competing parties will develop militias as happened in Iraq and Lebanon.

No foreign power will feel compelled to step in to protect the people or stop the fighting because no one will be responsible for “losing Syria.” Syria is a political orphan today.

The army has split in Syria once before. This happened in Feb 1954 at the end of Adib Shishakli’s rule. The army divided along geographic lines. The divisions in the North went with the opposition centered on the People’s Party based in Homs and Aleppo. The South stood by Shishakli. Fortunately, General Shishakli decided to leave the country and flew off to Saudi Arabia, helped by the US. He had a change of mind in mid air but the US prevented his return. Washington convinced Lebanon to refuse his jet landing rights. After a brief spell in Arabia, Shishakli migrated to Brazil, where a relative of a Druze man, for whose death Shishakli was responsible, assassinated him.

Syria’s great weakness is it lack of unity. This is why the Assad household has been able to rule for so long. Hafiz al-Assad was able to bring stability to Syria after 20 years of coups and political chaos by reverting to the use of traditional loyalties. He ended Syria’s period as a banana republic by placing his brother in charge of protecting the presidency and using tribal and sectarian loyalties to coup-proof the regime. Alawite faithful were carefully recruited to all the sensitive security positions in the Mukhabarat and military. The Sunni elite was grateful for the stability and was further brought in through the crafty use of graft and patronage. Rami Makhlouf is corrupt, but he is also the fixer for the Sunni merchant class. The way he brought the Sham Holding Company in to the circle of regime loyalists was a classic use of privilege and muscle to glue the elite families of Syria to the regime. They have made millions my accepting an offer that they could not refuse.

The Syrian opposition has always been divided between Arab nationalists, Islamist currents, liberals, and all those who disprove of the regime but are too conservative to take part in active opposition. Then there are the sectarian communities and the Kurds, class divisions, and the urban-rural split, not to mention the traditional rivalry between Damascus and Aleppo. The reason that the Assads have been so successful for so long is largely due to the inability of Syrians to unite around a common platform and national identity. The opposition’s lack of unity does not augur well for a post Assad future, especially as the death toll mounts and the desire for revenge grows.

Sunni Syrians frequently reassure me that Syria is different than Iraq or Lebanon. They insist that Syrians have lived together in harmony throughout most of their history and will not kill each other in the future, as their Lebanese and Iraqi cousins have done. I am less sanguine about such Syrian exceptionalism. I have been wrong enough times to make mentioning this important. The ability of the opposition to keep the protesters on message and away from sectarian slogans has been impressive. It could mean that the younger generation will find unity where their fathers did not. Also, Syrian minorities were certain that they faced massacre in 1946 when the French quit Syria. The French and British archives are filled with such warnings by anxious minority leaders. Minorities were not killed. The Druze and Alawites suffered a painful loss of political autonomy and privilege in their regions, but did not suffer physically. No revenge was taken on them under the banner of being collaborators as happened to the Assyrians in Iraq when some 3,000 were massacred in 1933 following Britain’s withdrawal. Christians were not ethnically cleansed as happened in Turkey when Ataturk won against the Greeks.

As for how Middle East alliances might reshape themselves should Syria implode or become a weak state, the best guide is Patrick Seale’s original masterpiece, “The Struggle for Syria“.  During the 1950s and 1960s, Syria had an extremely weak state and was subject to frequent coups and outside meddling, not unlike Lebanon today. A grand tug-of-war ensued between Iraq and Egypt for control of Syria. It ended after the failed British and Iraq inspired coup of 1956. This signified the last serious attempt to unite Iraq and Syria. Subsequently, the US stepped in to overthrow the Syrian government in 1957. This also failed, but it destabilized Syria enough to open the way for the victory of the pan-Arabists. Syria lurch toward Egypt and the USSR. The formation of the United Arab Republic in January 1958 was the low point of Syrian independence. Only when the Assads took over Syria, did it regain an independent foreign policy that was not subject to the pull of regional actors and machinations of the Superpowers.

Today, the most powerful states in the region are Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. They will fight for dominance in Syria. Iraq is too weak today, but it will be a natural contestant when it establishes state structures on a firmer footing. Kurdistan may find it impossible to resist the lure of Syria’s Kurds who will want to unite with it. Egypt is also likely to remain a minor actor in the geo-strategic tug-of-war until it gets its political and economic feet back under it. Israel will also be fishing in Syria’s troubled waters. Tel Aviv will be most interested in taking out Hizbullah and shepherding Lebanon toward a peace agreement with it.

The wave of refugees that are likely to flow out of Syria will be significant. I have already had three Syrian students call me in the last several days asking for references as they apply for refugee status here in the States. This is but a foretaste of the refugee problem that will develop should the regime actually give way .

Many journalists have asked me to paint a happy outcome of the present instability. I have struggled to come up with a non-violent scenario, but don’t arrive at one easily. Perhaps that is due to my years living in Lebanon? Several businessmen have suggested that they are prepared for Syria to go through six months or a year of turmoil and even civil war to “get rid of this group.” Instability could be that short, but I doubt it will be. Syrians have learned to live with each other and are deeply nationalistic, but instability brings out sectarian loyalties. Everyone in Syria is trying not to talk about religion today, but many fear that sectarianism will  become ever more important as insecurity grows.

Rami Makhlouf

The Syrian Envoy’s View
Published: May 11, 2011 in the New York Times

Re “Syrian Elite to Fight Protests to ‘the End’ ” (news article, May 11):

I wish to inform you that Rami Makhlouf, a businessman whom you interviewed at length, is a private citizen in Syria. He holds no official position in the Syrian government and does not speak on behalf of the Syrian authorities. The opinions he expressed are exclusively his and cannot be associated in any way with the official positions of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic.

IMAD MOUSTAPHA
Ambassador of Syria
Washington, May 11, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/opinion/l12syria.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Rami Makhlouf’s daily blasts Turkey; Draws MB link
Mideastwired

From the Makhlouf owned daily… translated in today’s Daily briefing from Mideastwire.com. For a trial please email [email protected]

On May 12, the state-controlled Al-Watan daily carried the following opinion piece by Nizar Salloum: “The “Turkish model” presents itself – as it is presented by those promoting it – as being a “secret recipe” for the Islamic world and especially the Arab world which seems to be rejecting the principles of the modern state governed by “secularism” on the legal and cultural levels. But at a time when this recipe-model was one of the reasons behind the cultural and political divide between Turkey and the Arab world states throughout the last eight decades, it is now presented as an element of rapprochement between the two sides, although it appears that the Turkish government is not completely interested in presenting its “secularism” as it truly is, and might reproduce new approaches that are far away from its philosophy in the context of its current dealings with the problems of the (Arab) Islamic world and its countries.

“Ever since the eruption of the events in Syria – over a month ago – the Turkish official performance seemed to be rash and improvised. Indeed, apart from the arrogant “reformatory preaching” of Recep Tayyip Erdogan on more than one platform and European stage, the engineer of “neo-Ottomanism” Ahmet Davutoglu seemed to be unable to come up with solutions for alleged problems in dealing with these incidents! With the exposure of the nature of some parties in the Syrian opposition, and especially the Muslim Brotherhood group whose leader Riad al-Shakfa appeared from Istanbul, but also the call to hold a conference for the Syrian opposition in Istanbul as well, the “Turkish model” appeared to be going through a test, whose outcome might determine its fate… Historically speaking, the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1928 was in one way a compensation for the absence and fall of the Ottoman Empire.

“Consequently, it came in response to Ataturk’s “secularism” since it offered a full religious detail in the face of the secular one… But this is the first time – in public at least – that the Turkish model appears to enjoy a relationship with it, maybe through its adoption of a political state that is completely opposed to it and its history. However, it is not certain whether this is due to Ottoman and pre-Ataturk awakenings, or to cooperation with the American strategy that is currently trying to reproduce Islamic “non-Jihadist” authorities that are “well-behaved” in the face of Israel and in the management of the Arab states system… Still, while Turkey’s current political and economic prosperity is due to its secular history and Davutoglu’s strategic corrections, its handling of the Syrian situation will push its model toward new positions that point toward the beginning of the recanting of its principles…

“If this were to happen, it will need secret recipes that are no longer present in an Islamic world that is far away from the climates of secularism and governed by the exhausting and obstructing MB details. Today, the Syrian events constitute the most important test to the Turkish model, as well as to its ability to remain truthful to itself and its history.”