SYRIAN FUTURE SCENARIOS
Dr Nikolaos van Dam for the panel discussion on the future of Syria, Berlin, Akademie der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, 23 November 2011

People in general are quite limited in their capabilities when it comes to thinking out or developing scenarios for the future. One of the reasons for this is the quite common lack of imagination. Only when a certain stage of developments has been reached or surpassed, people are able to envisage much better what might come next; but generally not before.

Another point is that many people have a tendency to mixing up so-called objective thinking with wishful thinking.

On top of that, at least in the case of present-day Syria, people generally do not want to be seen as providing any analysis which might perhaps be interpreted as being against, or critical, of those courageous Syrians who have good and peaceful intentions and who are opposing the al-Asad dictatorship, but have not yet succeeded in achieving their aim of a more democratic and free Syria. Academics who, for instance, during an earlier stage this year observed that during the bloody events of the past eight months, the opposition was not only peaceful but also used violence and attacked the army and security forces with arms, were strongly criticized by the opposition and others, if only because that might confirm the regime’s story of its being attacked by so-called “armed terrorists” and could help shattering the image of the strictly peaceful opposition, a peacefulness which provided the opposition with such a strong kind of moral legitimacy.

How are we to realistically evaluate the situation in Syria from the outside? Is it possible to get an objective picture through the various reports which are spread by both the opposition and the regime through the media? Do we have to take the declarations of the Syrian regime seriously when they talk about the so-called “armed terrorist gangs” or their efforts or intentions of political reform? What are people inside Syria seeing and experiencing in, for instance, the biggest cities Damascus and Aleppo? Some individual friends have written to me that they hardly noticed anything from the bloody events and that “everything appeared to be rather quiet”. But that did not mean that the situation was and is not extremely serious elsewhere. People in Homs, Hama and Deraa will certainly have completely different experiences, because of the heavy military sieges they have experienced.

One thing is certain: the developments have been extremely bloody, with more than 3,500 deadly victims among the opposition. The victims among the regime’s security and military forces, however, have generally not been taken that seriously yet, because people in general did not want to believe that there was also armed opposition from the early beginnings of what can be called the “popular revolution”. When taking the relatively high ratio of regime victims into account as compared to the numbers of opposition victims, however, (which is about 1:4, meaning that for every four opposition victims there was one victim on the side of the regime), there must already have been a substantial amount of armed anti-regime violence during the earlier stages of this revolution, probably committed from the “side lines” by Salafists and others, branded by the regime as “armed gangs”. In general the reaction of the regime to peaceful protestors has been disproportionate in every sense. But combatting armed opposition could be seen as quite normal. The regime has, however, never clearly given any clear explanation of these “armed gangs”, which might have helped defending its position.

Besides, but nonetheless of essential importance, one should not forget that the regime has not only many opponents, but also many supporters. Next to those who support the regime out of full conviction, there are also those who support it for fear of what might come as an alternative. Change does not always mean that things become better. The situation in Iraq is a clear example of that.

Of course it is not possible for any human being to predict the future with full certainty, me included. Nevertheless I have drawn up a few scenarios of what might happen in the future of Syria.

I would like to single out three main scenarios:

1. A military coup d’etat which would pave the way for a transformation of the present Alawi-dominated Syrian Ba’thist dictatorship into another, somewhat more widely based dictatorship, which would at least be willing to implement drastic political reforms which, in the end, could lead to a more democratic Syria. Such a scenario, in any case, should be expected to imply some bloodshed because the al-Asad regime is not going to step down voluntarily. It is only logical to expect that al-Asad and the people surrounding him are not going to sign their own death-warrants. This is because they have nothing positive to expect for themselves from stepping down, except, in the more positive case, to be imprisoned, and in the less positive, but more likely case, to be executed.
Extraditing the present Syrian leadership to the International Criminal Court would not satisfy the general demands of the Syrian demonstrators, if only because they have frequently expressed the slogan that they want the president to be executed (whereas the ICC does not have the death penalty). After all the crimes against humanity committed by the regime it would be quite natural for the president and many of his direct military and security supporters to receive the death sentence.

This first scenario could be initiated through a military coup coming from within the regime by those who are or have become very critical of the regime’s behavior. Nevertheless, I would not expect it to be a real “palace revolt” in the sense that it would be carried out by the most direct entourage of the president, if only because they are co-responsible for everything that has happened during the past year, but a little further from the center, but nevertheless rather close to it. The likelihood for such a coup to succeed is not very high, however, because of the direct dangers involved. Anyone even contemplating such an idea and sharing it with others would run the risk of immediate execution. And the Syrian regime has decades of experience by now in how to prevent a military coup.

2. A second scenario could be the continuation of the present regime for another undefined period, with some slow but steady reform measures which could in the end lead to a more peaceful regime change. In this scenario the present hard-core political leadership could introduce and effectuate essential political reform, leading the country to a less dictatorial, more democratic regime, which in the end would lead to a substitution of Syrian Ba’thist dictatorial rule. The president might later on step down himself, and he could delegate this transitional task to someone else who could be expected to be acceptable, also to the opposition, but as a transitional figure only.

As the Ba’thist political leadership, just like in the first scenario, does not want to sign its own death-warrant, it would need to receive safe passage to another country with the guarantee not to be prosecuted afterwards. Such a scenario would prevent a lot of bloodshed, but at the same time would not be easy to realize, because once a transfer of power comes realistically in sight, the willingness of the opposition of accepting such a compromise would strongly decrease (if it would be politically possible at all) and many Syrians would spontaneously or emotionally prefer to seek full justice, combined in practice with an unpredictable amount of bloodshed, rather than not seeking justice against the leadership and having less bloodshed. Spontaneous feelings combined with more bloodshed might prevail over pragmatism combined with less bloodshed, and this in turn would diminish the chances of such a scenario to be “successful”. In fact, the willingness of “the opposition” to still enter into dialogue with the regime about political reform and change, has drastically diminished during the past year, if it has not completely disappeared, because the bloodshed and repression by the regime did not only not stop, but just increased. And it would be impossible or unacceptable for any opposition to have a real dialogue with the very regime which at the same time bloodily suppresses them.

3. A third scenario could be civil war. This scenario would probably be the most disastrous, bloody and destructive of all scenarios because it would lead to an uncontrollable situation. Moreover it would turn out to be into nobody’s interest. Very many people would be harmed by it, and Syria would undergo an enormous setback the damage of which could be felt for several generations. Also neighboring countries could well be affected. A civil war would inevitably obtain a sectarian character, leading to a kind of sectarian polarization which the country has not witnessed before. Of course, everyone remembers the massacres of Hama of 1982. And these massacres may well have sown the seeds of future strife and revenge, which in such a civil war might bear “full fruit”. Thomas Friedman at the time (in 1989) wrote, with some hindsight, that “if someone had been able to take an objective opinion poll in Syria after the Hama massacre, [Hafiz al-] Assad’s treatment of the rebellion probably would have won substantial approval, even among many Sunni Muslims. They might have said, “Better one month of Hama than fourteen years of civil war like Lebanon”. (Thomas Friedman, From Beirut to Jerusalem, London, 1989, pp. 100-101).

Today, however, things are completely different (if the rational analysis of Friedman was already correct in the first place, which I doubt, also with some hindsight). This time it is not about the murder of Alawis by the Muslim Brotherhood who try to provoke a sectarian polarization; but it is about peaceful protestors who are bloodily suppressed by Alawi-dominated security and army forces as well as by Alawi gangs (the Shabbihah) who in fact provoke a sectarian confrontation, but by way of intimidation warn others against doing what the regime is doing itself already for more than eight months. Former Ba’thist leader Dr Munif al-Razzaz wrote in this respect about similar developments in the 1960s: “I do not know which of the two is the more serious crime: causing sectarianism or exposing it.” (al-Tajribah al-Murrah, Beirut, 1967, p. 160).

During the past year, ever since the demonstrations started in March, the regime has more or less provoked the opposition into more and more violence, and this may in the end lead to a situation which nobody can control any longer. In the beginning of the present crisis Bashar might still have saved the situation by implementing drastic political changes, and – at least as important – by having his security and army people stop the violence. In the course of developments it became clear, however, that even Bashar did not have his own people under control, if, at least, it had been his intention to stop the violence (as was announced at the time by his spokeswomen Buthayna Sha’ban). As the violence has continued unabatedly, however, Bashar has become more and more responsible for it, except if he would have resigned, which he could not do, of course, without endangering the whole regime.

A sectarian tinted civil war could start within the armed forces, supported by civilians and dissident military units, and it could obtain a much wider character by involving the whole of Syrian society. As the Syrian army and security apparatus is strongly Alawi-dominated in the sense that Alawis do not only dominate the most strategic positions, but also are much better and much more heavily armed, it would be extremely difficult for their opponents to subdue them. Victory for non-Alawi forces should, therefore, not at all be taken for granted that easily.

One could think of several more scenarios, but when taking the three I just mentioned, the last one of a sectarian civil war is the worst of all and should be avoided at all costs. That leaves the options of an internal coup which is extremely dangerous and difficult to be successful, and reform through dialogue with the regime with a safe passage out of the country for its hard-core members including Bashar, just before power is handed over to other personalities and forces who are not only willing, but also can be considered as capable of carrying out reform.

One might pose the question of whether the demonstrators have at the beginning, but also later really been so naïve as to expect the regime to make any drastic political reforms leading to a more democratic political system and to freedom of expression? Did they really believe that the regime would peacefully give in to their demands, or even that peaceful demonstrations could cause its fall? It would be an insult to consider the courageous demonstrators as being naïve. Moreover, given the circumstances, they did not have much of an alternative to demonstrating peacefully. Violent efforts to oppose the regime were bound to lead to even more violence between the two completely unequally equipped sides. Most of the demonstrators did not have any well-contemplated plan or strategy at the beginning, and many still may not have one yet. There also was no clear leadership. Even now, the various opposition groups are quite divided in their strategies and policies, although after eight months the outlines of commonly adopted political principles finally start to emerge more clearly. The peaceful demonstrations were rather a spontaneous reaction to the violence and repressive actions of the regime, first in Deraa province, and later elsewhere, all over Syria. Syrian demonstrators were clearly inspired by developments and demonstrations in other countries like, for instance, Tunisia and Egypt, even if these had and have not yet provided the coveted results. The demonstrators simply wanted to get rid of the Ba’thist dictatorship which has existed for almost half a century. The youth – and older people as well – were fed up with always living under dictatorship, having no freedom of expression, and, most particularly, not having any prospects for positive change in their often miserable lives. Particularly those who only had read or heard about the regime’s violence and repression, but had not experienced it themselves at first hand, were under the perceived new circumstances prepared to take immense risks, without having the slightest guarantee of success. But amongst the demonstrators there were also well-known personalities who had earlier been imprisoned by the Ba’th regime, and had experienced the horrors of imprisonment at first hand. There was and is also this strange combination that the Syrian media are strongly censored, whereas at the same time free television channels such as Al-Jazeerah are widely available and influence public opinion.

What can we, or our governments, do to help achieve a solution?

Thus far the European Union and the Unites States have only called for, and implemented a whole range of sanctions. To my knowledge none of these states has beforehand engaged in any kind of real dialogue with the Damascus regime. They have not even tried. Most politicians from the West apparently do not like to be seen having a dialogue with what is generally seen as the murderous regime of Bashar al-Asad. It does not make you popular in your own country. But this lack of contacts also implied excluding any possibility of having influence over president Bashar. Declarations have only been made through the media; and the imposed sanctions have not achieved anything yet, except for making the economic situation much more difficult for the regime and the many people dependent upon it. Historically, sanctions have only rarely been effective. On the contrary: they more often than not have caused a lot of damage without ever achieving the desired results. The sanctions against Iraq in the 1990s, for instance, reportedly cost more than 300,000 dead. That is almost a hundred times as many as the number of the Syrian opposition victims who died this year. It should be stressed that every single victim is one too many. The idea that the people are not really affected by economic sanctions is pure fiction and wishful thinking.

It should be added that countries which did seriously try to help find a solution through dialogue, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the Arab League, have not been successful either (yet). Being isolated by its Arab brothers and sisters is much more painful for an Arab nationalist country like Syria, than being sanctioned by the European Union and the United States, because relations with the latter were already rather cool anyhow, if not hostile. Personally, I think it was a serious omission not to have even tried any kind of political dialogue with Damascus. Once Western countries had declared the Syrian regime and its president to be illegitimate, possibilities for dialogue were also cut off. One might even question the usefulness of embassies in Damascus of countries which have declared the regime to be illegitimate. On the other hand, what is the additional value of withdrawing your ambassador if you already do not have any or hardly any direct contact with the regime? The ambassador might be a kind of last contact through whom an attempt might be made to influence the regime. Withdrawing ambassadors is largely a symbolic act, but the more painful for Syria as an Arab nationalist country when it applies to friendly countries in the Arab world. The US ambassador lost his role of valuable inter-governmental link (interlocuteur valable) by bringing a supportive visit to the opposition groups in Hama. It was perhaps a nice gesture towards the opposition, but also the end of any good communication between the US and Syrian governments through their ambassador in Damascus.

What is the best or “least bad” option?

Having given a survey of some possibilities for future scenarios in Syria, I come to the conclusion that the best, or “least bad”, option would be to help achieve a situation in which the present dictatorship would come to the conclusion that it is better to relinquish power to others who could subsequently lead the country further through political reform towards more democracy, while at the same time being given the opportunity to leave the country with a guarantee of not being prosecuted. Such a scenario might prevent a lot of bloodshed, but perhaps it is just too much wishful thinking. Insisting on prosecuting the hard-core of the al-Asad regime and having real justice done, will only further increase their perseverance to survive, and will increase the possibility of a destructive sectarian war, which will cost many more lives without any certainty at all of achieving a better and more democratic Syria as a result. Of course, as part of day-to-day politics it is easier for foreign politicians to increase sanctions and to ask for justice to be done. This will give them more popularity in the short run, but they also carry the co-responsibility for further bloodshed with all its victims, if they would not at least try to help find a solution more constructively.

The key question remains: how to end dictatorship so as to help Syria obtaining the better future it deserves, while at the same time saving as many Syrian lives as possible.
***

Peter Harling has produced another superb analysis of where we stand in Syria. Not only does he understand Syria, but he can write. He captures Syria’s subtleties as he cuts through the spin on both sides. It is a long piece. Here are only a few excerpts. Read the entire document.

Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria’s Dynamics
Middle East Briefing N°31 24 Nov 2011
Damascus/Brussels, 24 November 2011
International Crisis Group

OVERVIEW

The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.

Yet, almost entirely missing is a sober assessment of the challenges provoked by these shifts and the very real risk that they could derail or even foreclose the possibility of a successful transition. In particular, five issues likely to shape events have been absent from the public debate:

1. the fate of the Alawite community;
2. the connection between Syria and Lebanon;
3. the nature and implications of heightened international involvement;
4. the long-term impact of the protest movement’s growing militarisation; and
5. the legacy of creeping social, economic and institutional decay.

Assad has registered only two achievements, albeit highly ambivalent ones. First, the regime in effect took the Alawite minority hostage, linking its fate to its own. It did so deliberately and cynically, not least in order to ensure the loyalty of the security services which, far from being a privileged, praetorian elite corps, are predominantly composed of underpaid and overworked Alawites hailing from villages the regime has left in a state of abject underdevelopment. As unrest began, the regime staged sectarian incidents in confessionally-mixed areas as a means of bringing to the surface deeply-ingrained feelings of insecurity among Alawites who, in centuries past, had been socially marginalised, economically exploited and targets of religious discrimination.

As repression escalated in recent months, many Syrians have shifted from blaming elements of the regime, to blaming the regime as a whole and, finally, to blaming the Alawite community itself. As a result, many Alawites are now in a state of panic, leading them to embrace a regime for which most, at the start of the crisis, evinced little sympathy. Sharing analogous fears born of their minority status, large swathes of the Christian community appear to be following a similar path. The regime’s second ambiguous success was in compartmentalising its territory. Denied both mobility and control of any symbolically decisive space (notably in the capital, Damascus, and the biggest city, Aleppo), the protest movement failed to reach the critical mass necessary to establish, once and for all, that Assad has lost his legitimacy. Instead, demonstrators doggedly resisted escalating violence on the part of the security services and their civilian proxies in an ever-growing number of hotspots segregated from one another by numerous checkpoints. Within each of these separate locations, security forces turned their firepower against uncomfortably large gatherings, stalked local leadership figures, seized tools used to communicate with the outside world and resorted to collective punishment ? in some instances carrying out such gruesome scare tactics as returning victims’ desecrated bodies to their families.

However, the regime has been able to ensure such territorial control largely because the protest movement remained essentially peaceful. This allowed it to rely on numerous but lightly armed security forces and proxies, drawing on military combat troops solely for secondary missions (such as manning checkpoints) or in response to the relatively rare instances when it met organised armed resistance. This was for a reason. Over the years, the regime built up the instruments of a police state while distrusting the army ? large but poorly trained, ill-equipped and lacking esprit de corps. To minimise the risk of a military coup, Assad made sure the army stayed both weak and divided. The net result is that ? save for a few praetorian units ? it cannot be depended upon as an instrument of repression.

There are signs the regime’s formula no longer is working. Its failure to shore up its legitimacy coupled with the gap between its narrative (in which the state fights to restore law and order in the face of terrorist attacks) and everyday reality (in which security forces make no distinction between peaceful protesters and armed groups) has produced a growing number of military defectors. Civilians, hungry for protection and eager for revenge, are ever more willing to welcome, support and shelter them, making it virtually impossible for security services to root them out. In short, their brutality has provoked an incipient armed …

In several respects, Syria’s society is far better prepared for change than at the outset of the uprising. The regime’sdivide-and-rule tactics have kept most Alawites, many Christians, as well as some Druze and Sunnis on its side, but simultaneously given rise to an unprecedented sense of awareness, solidarity and responsibility among large segments of the population. After decades of suppression, civil society has emerged as a surprisingly enterprising and energised actor, providing support to those targeted by the regime and often bridging communal and geographic divides. Over time, social divisions also gradually have receded. Members of the business community have extended material assistance to protesters, and some within the middle classes belatedly have thrown in their lot with what initially had been a disproportionately working-class, proletarian uprising.

A long-apathetic youth has become politicised and is now actively engaged in the struggle, seeking to push back against some of the more thuggish and sectarian trends among protesters. The latter, through their coordination efforts, have produced incipient, discreet yet increasingly effective local leadership. Through the string of defections, the army itself may be generating the skeleton of a future, more cohesive apparatus…..

By now, there no longer is a permanent loyalist military presence in parts of Idlib, Hama and Homs governorates, a situation that enables the armed opposition to further regroup and organise. The governorates of Dayr Zor and Deraa appear on the verge of following a similar path. As defections mount and the army is under ever greater stress, there is reason to doubt that the regime can muster sufficient military resources to reverse the trend. Talk about creating safe-havens on the Turkish and Jordanian borders could soon be moot; in many ways, Syrians appear on their way to doing that on their own….

But what is emerging in those areas free of regime control?….

Inhabitant of Damascus
2011/11/24

Ambassador Van Dam’s analysis of the options before Syria is very close to the mark. However I believe there are no only two realistic options for Syria’s medium-term future.

There is no likelihood whatsoever that Bashar al-Assad will step down or be deposed in some sort of internal coup. Those calling for him to step down (the US, UK, France, Turkey, among others) demonstrate a poor understanding of Syria. The regime needs Assad. He is their best bet in managing the international elements of the crisis, and has been instrumental in keeping Russia, China, South Africa, and India among others, actively supporting the regime despite its rampant and very nasty human rights abuses. Assad is also still very popular, particularly in Damascus and Aleppo, including having strong Christian and Druze support. So why would the regime remove him.

Assad will not step down, regardless of the economic sanctions (which will achieve nothing but the suffering and deaths of the civilian population as van Dam says). And what if he did get on a plane and go into exile (in Tehran?)? Nothing would change. For things to change and the violence to stop, a million or so Alawis (plus other regime insiders) would need to go into exile with him. It is not the removal of Assad which will usher in reform, but the removal of the entire Assad/Alawi elite.

Syria’s first option is to enable a meaningful Arab League delegaton, of some hundreds of monitors, to enter the country to help stem the violence and begin a confidence-building process with consultations aimed at a democratic transition. Assad told the ‘Sunday Times’ this week that he will hold parliamentary elections in Feb/March. This will be followed by a constitutional review, and if the post of president is part of the new constitution, presidential elections will be held and ‘the people can decide’. The best thing for Syria would be that all factions cease violence and test Assad’s promise. If he fails to deliver then he will lose what little credibility he has left. There is nothing to lose by giving him 6 months to deliver. The Arab League initiative is therefore a last chance for the regime and the country to avoid destruction.

The second option is the atatus quo – continue the present slide into civil war. This will be the inevitable outcome if the AL plan fails. Syria would become the proxy battleground for a Sunni vs Shia and a US, Israel, Saudi vs Iran, Iraq confrontation. Sanctions and violence would take a terrible toll on the civilian population. After months or years, direct outside military intervention would be inevitable. This would have hugely negative impact on the region.

The choice is stark. But why would Assad refuse the AL initiative? It would stem the violence. It would enable him to deliver on his promise of parliamentary and presidential elections. If he refuses to accept the AL initative he would do so only for two reasons. One, he has no intention whatsoever of introducing democratic reforms. Two, he does not want outsiders into the country to confirm to the world the atrocities being committed by his regime on the Syrian population. If Assad refuses this initiative, he and his regime will confirm that this is a brutal dictatorship prepared to hold on to power at enormous cost to the Syrian people. The key is that the Arab League does not allow Syria to turn the initiative into a constrained and toothless exercise, tightly controlled by Syria’s massive internal security apparatus. The intiative must be credible if the violence is to be reduced and progress is to be made.

Mohammad Said Bkheitan, Assistant Regional Secretary of al-Baath Arab Socialist Party – the highest ranking member of the Baath Party, has been replaced. He served as the point-man for Assad on dealing with the present crisis. I asked a few friends who he was and why this was such a big deal. Here is the answer I got.

The world according to Bashar al-Assad
by Ziya Meral*
24 November 2011, Thursday

Over the last few weeks, I was able to listen to a number of people who recently visited Syria and met and talked with Bashar al-Assad himself.

With such fresh personal insights into what’s inside his mind and what we have seen from his public statements of late, we are able to put together a picture of how he sees what’s happening around him.

It is clear that Assad is still confident of his stand and does not see an end to his regime. Firstly, he thinks that the White House is fooling American citizens by making public declarations of freezing his and his family’s assets in the US, but not actually pressuring Syria. Assad points out that he has no assets whatsoever in the US and President Barack Obama knows that too. He sees a US unwilling to unsettle his rule and dependent on other countries, such as Turkey. Secondly, he thinks that Israel wants him in office and that they will never back any strong campaign against him, let alone one that could lead to a crumbling Syria ruled by Islamists.

Thirdly, Assad thinks that Turkey’s pressure on him is limited and that the strong reactions shown by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government are only for the public. He does not think there is anything else Turkey can do from now on. He believes that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) still hold the main power in the country and will never allow “Islamists” to take Turkey to war. Given that Syrian and Turkish rapprochement began with military relations, Assad still holds positive feelings towards the TSK. He believes that he has enough to work on with Kurds to create indirect pressure on Turkey.

Fourthly, Assad continues to hold deep mistrust towards powerful Arab countries in the region. He sees Egypt as not being a true Middle Eastern country, but a North African one. Egypt, for him, only makes noise but has no actual power or influence in the region. He sees the Gulf countries as villains. He believes that all of the booming countries, such as the UAE, Qatar and even Saudi Arabia, are doomed to collapse and fail when the petrol money runs out as they are not “real” nations. He sees Saudi Arabia as a major threat with its never ending funding of radical groups. He believes Qatar to be too ambitious but lacking any substance. Jordan, accordingly, is a small puppet kingdom for the US…..

Beyond what we see in the international media and our emotive anticipations over another Arab Spring revolution, Assad still has important levels of domestic support. The fears of radical Sunni groups not only dominating the country, but enforcing Islam on the masses, is common even among conservative Sunni Muslims, not least among the Alewites and liberals. The substantial Christian community in the country is sleepless with fear of a possible post-Assad Syria. He now publicly acknowledges that mistakes were made towards Kurds. He seems set to ensure that Kurds who were previously denied citizenship are now granted it and that they come to see themselves as Syrians.

His underlying political discourse still speaks of some sort of Pan-Arab idealism, not Syrian nationalism. He speaks of Arab unity and power, and yet what he means by that remains elusive. Just like his father, he tries to evoke Arab nationalism across the Arab world and fails to achieve it. He is acutely aware that his Arab unity discourse is pretty much limited to Lebanon and Syria and he is actually talking about Syrian influence and power, led by his family. However, his primary concern and warnings that Syria will be overtaken by Islamists echo a significant portion of his countrymen and fellow Arabs in other countries as well as worried eyes in Europe and North America. He still has a winning argument built on these fears to legitimize his brutal crackdown on “rebels.”

Assad is not wrong in some of his readings of his neighborhood. He is masterfully aware of the fears of the majority of Syrians, most of who want the turbulent days to end so that they can go back to their normal lives and feel safe again. The “uprising” in Syria does not seem to have reached the critical mass needed to topple the Assad regime, and the armed forces and intelligence services remain faithful and in tact. Regional dynamics still maintain support for Syria, as well as the animosities that Syria has learned to live with and navigate through for the last 20 years. The chaotic Syrian opposition is not in a place to challenge and replace him in the near future. In fact, some of their protests and signs of militant attacks are not welcomed widely. In other words, there is no immediate major change on the horizon, at least not yet.

Civil war in Syria must be averted
The country urgently needs the intervention of a high-powered, neutral, contact group to stop the killing on both sides
By Patrick Seale, Special to Gulf News

Q&A: Syria’s daring actress
Fadwa Soliman, an Alawite who became an icon in the uprising against Bashar al-Assad, speaks to Al Jazeera from hiding.
Basma Atassi Last Modified: 24 Nov 2011

….Q: What made you go to Homs and lead an anti-government demonstration?

A: Homs is a city in siege, the number of the martyrs is large, and tanks have separated its districts. Moreover, Syrian regime has been trying to create sectarian tensions between people. All these reasons prompted me to Homs under the sounds of bullets and presence of tanks, risking everything in my life.

I just wanted to go just to say we Syrians are one people. I wanted to contradict the narrative of the regime and show people that there is no sectarianism in Syria. I wanted it to stop its lie that those who protest are armed groups, foreign agents or radical Islamists….

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????? ?????? ??? “?? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ??? 30\ 11\ 2011? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ????????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ?????”.

A friend Writes:

A friend of mine attended the conference in Paris. Bourhan Ghalioun was not there because he was meeting the British officials. Basma kadmani was supposedly impressive. She spoke about them having refused to get any money from non Syrians even though they have been approached repeatedly. Having said, many wealthy Syrians are helping and are prepared to give more according to what my friend heard from there.

Another Friend:

That is the truth and I know it for a fact. Many many many wealthy Syrians, inside and outside, are giving money. There is so much investment in anti-Bashar that it’s impossible to roll back.

Another writer:

I appreciate your insights and the unbiased approach with regards to the Alawite questions. As an Alawite myself, I was born in the mountains of Antioch,I am extremely worried about what is going on in the Middle East and the repercussions on my people in Turkey and Syria. My village is within miles of the Syrian refugees who are being “hosted” on the Turkish side of the border. Even though I have deep reservations about the Baath and their ideology and am in favor of open, transparent, pluralistic democracy based on human rights and the rule of law, it does not keep me from worrying about a disorderly unraveling of political order in Syria and what it represents for my people….

Syria, Iran and the Balance of Power in the Middle East
By George Friedman

Thus far al Assad has resisted his enemies. Though some mid- to low-ranking Sunnis have defected, his military remains largely intact; this is because the Alawites control key units. Events in Libya drove home to an embattled Syrian leadership – and even to some of its adversaries within the military – the consequences of losing. The military has held together, and an unarmed or poorly armed populace, no matter how large, cannot defeat an intact military force. The key for those who would see al Assad fall is to divide the military.

If al Assad survives – and at the moment, wishful thinking by outsiders aside, he is surviving – Iran will be the big winner

CBS News: U.S. urges Americans to leave Syria “immediately”, 2011-11-23

 (CBS/AP) BEIRUT – The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart “immediately,” and Turkey’s foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria. “The …

Nikolaus van Dam on Syria’s three possible main scenarios for transition

“Just because you are on the throne does not mean you are actually in power,” Nikolaos van Dam, Dutch scholar, author of several books on Syria, and former ambassador to Egypt, Iraq, and Turkey, among other places, told The Epoch Times.

“It is similar to the situation under his father [Hafez al-Assad]. [In charge] is a group of officers and security personnel who have very close ties and the same background,” he said.

Bashar al-Assad came to power as the anointed successor to his father, but his background in the West and manners misled many people into believing that he was more liberal than he turned out to be, or that he had more space to make changes than he did, van Dam says.

“The officers needed him and he needed them. But he did not earn his seat like his father, by winning it in a struggle. So it is a different situation.”

Nevertheless, says van Dam, as president, if he disagreed, he could have stepped down. “It would be rather strange to be president and not be responsible for your own deeds.”

Bruce Jentleson, professor of Public Policy and Political Science, and former senior adviser to the State Department, is of a similar opinion. “Power in Syria is more opaque than it was in Egypt, Tunisia, or Libya. While more than a figurehead, Bashar al-Assad doesn’t sit as much at the apex of power as Mubarak, Ben Ali, or Gadhafi did,” he said. “Syria could be left with Assadism without Assad.”

Thus, removing al-Assad from power may not automatically open up the process of change, he argues.

It may also prove desperately hard to do for anyone outside of the strong and well-armed Alawite minority elite that rule Syria, according to van Dam. He sees three possible main scenarios for transition in Syria.

One is a coup from within, by someone reform-minded who is far enough removed from power not to fear going down with al-Assad, but still close enough to have the muscle to do it.

Only people with power and arms could perform a successful coup in Syria. But it’s easier said than done.

— Nikolaos van Dam, Syria scholar

“Only people with power and arms could perform a successful coup in Syria. But it’s easier said than done. If you start contemplating it and taking people into confidence, you may be executed the next day,” he said.

The second scenario is that al-Assad agrees to step down and leaves the country, which would require guarantees that he will not be prosecuted.

The third is civil war, and this is by far the worst scenario, says van Dam. “The outcome is unknown, and it will be damaging for society for generations to come. You will have only losers in the end. Nobody wants this, especially not the mostly peaceful demonstrators,” he said.

A civil war also runs a high risk of destabilizing the entire region, according to observers. Lebanon in particular is often mentioned, but also Iraq and even Turkey may get drawn into it, van Dam said.

Another group that has been mentioned as influential is what Jentleson calls al-Assad’s “business cronies;” businessmen, many of them members of the al-Assad family, who have made a lot of money by colluding with the government. Despite their economic power, they may not have much political influence, however, according to van Dam. And it’s hard to know which way they would swing if the regime showed signs of going down.

“They want to be safe. They cooperated with the regime out of self-interest. The regime has many supporters, but how many of them support it out of conviction? The businessmen are probably afraid of the alternatives. What if a Sunni regime that discriminates against Alawites would come to power?” asks van Dam.

Regardless of what happens within the regime, van Dam thinks that the rest of the world has locked itself in a dangerous position by simply declaring the Assad regime illegitimate and proposing sanctions, for lack of other means of exerting pressure.

“The EU has not even tried to negotiate with al-Assad. Having only sanctions cuts off your ability to influence. Sanctions killed 300,000 people in Iraq, and it didn’t help. Imagine that the regime stays in power for several years, then what? It is better to be pragmatic and avoid bloodshed,” he says.

In his view, the Arab League is probably the best chance for a peaceful resolution at this point. Although they have not been successful so far, he thinks they have a greater chance at convincing their Arab brothers than the West does.

Overall, the situation doesn’t look good for Syria. “It is hard to be optimistic,” said the former ambassador.

Hezbollah ‘cripples’ CIA — or so it seems
2011-11-22

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 22 (UPI) — Hezbollah’s roll-up ofan alleged CIA operation in Beirut has given the Iranian-backed movement an immense boost at a time when its ally, the Syrian regime in Damascus, is fighting for survival…. The U.S. reports over the last several days about how Hezbollah’s formidable counterintelligence arm was able to uncover CIA recruitment of its personnel and expose an entire CIA network to infiltrate the movement’s security apparatus indicate that Hezbollah crippled the U.S. operation.

“Beirut station is out of business,” one CIA source was quoted as saying by the Los Angeles Times Sunday….

Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities have also arrested more than 150 people, including senior army officers and prominent political figures, on charges of spying for Israel, with Hezbollah the primary target. By any standards that’s a massive network — and it must be presumed others remain at large.

Since qhadaffi fell, i hear libyan real estate is up 3 times

Cameron: War looms in Syria 

David Cameron urged world leaders to “engage” with Syrian opposition groups yesterday as he warned the country was on the brink of a full-scale civil war.

The Prime Minister praised interventions by Turkey and the Arab League against Bashar al-Assad’s brutal suppression of protests. Speaking alongside Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Downing Street, he said: “Today we had important discussions on Syria, where now a full-scale civil war is a real possibility.

“The world now needs to get behind with concerted pressure on the regime and positive engagement with the opposition, who can represent Syria in an inclusive transition,” he added.

“Syria is now at a dead end so change is inevitable,” Mr Gul had earlier said.

CNN: Cyberwar explodes in Syria
2011-11-22

Istanbul (CNN) — A familiar digital chime rang on the computer. Someone was calling via Skype from Syria. It was a law student and opposition activist from the city of Homs who uses the pseudonym Musaab al Hussaini to protect himself from arrest. …

“It Will Not Be Syria, It Will Be Libya”: 20,000 marchers in Tahrir Square, November 21, 2011

“This is the breaking point we were all waiting for. Getting rid of Mubarak was just the warm-up. This is the real showdown.”

In a challenge to the ruling military council, Egypt’s interim cabinet has offered to resign. 20,000 people have occupied Tahrir Square since the weekend and many have clashed with security forces in some of the worse violence since the uprising earlier this year that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. At least 33 people have been killed and over 1,500 injured so far. Thousands are reportedly chanting “The people want the end of the field marshal,” a reference to Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the leader of the military council, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). They are also chanting “it will not be Syria, it will be Libya.”….

“”The Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties met on Monday after which the Brotherhood issued a “collective apology” for not joining the protesters’ calls for the SCAF to loosen its hold on power earlier. But the Brotherhood, which is the best organized of Egypt’s political organizations and stands to win a majority in the upcoming elections, also said that it would not participate in the “million man march.”””

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Syrian government, Russia criticize Britain’s calls against Assad
2011-11-22

DAMASCUS, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) — British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Monday called on Syrian opposition to “unite” against President Bashar al-Assad, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chided such calls from Western countries as provocation.

“It is important for opposition groups to be able to put aside their own differences and come to a united view of the way forward, ” Hague made the remarks after meeting with Syrian opposition representatives in London on Monday.

However, he said Britain was not ready to recognize the Syrian opposition as the country’s legitimate government.

“We are not at the point of a formal recognition, partly because there is not a single council as there was in Libya. They are not in control of territory in Syria as the council was in Libya and the international community has not reached that point,” Hague said.

Meanwhile, Lavrov said that “so far, when the Arab League (AL) urges to stop the violence and start dialogues, Western countries and some countries in the region call for the opposition to avoid such dialogues with Bashar al-Assad’s regime.”

Abuses over international law and the UN authority cannot be allowed, Lavrov added.

The remarks of Hague and Lavrov came after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s confirmation that he would press on with a crackdown against what he called armed groups targeting civilians, policemen, army personnel in his country despite increased pressure from the AL.

“The conflict will continue and the pressure to subjugate Syria will continue,” Assad told the Britain’s Sunday Times newspaper. ” However, I assure you that Syria will not bow down and that it will continue to resist the pressure being imposed on it,” he said….

In yet another move to place pressure on Damascus, the AL has said that it will sponsor a meeting combining different opposition figures to help them form a united front….

U.N. draft is a “declaration of war” on Syria: envoy

Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, November 21, 2011

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Syria’s U.N. envoy on Monday slammed a draft U.N. resolution condemning the Syrian government’s eight-month crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, calling it a “declaration of war” on Damascus.

Syrian Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari was referring to a draft resolution on Syria which Germany submitted to the U.N. General Assembly’s human rights committee. The draft, which was crafted by Germany, Britain and France, has five Arab states among its 61 co-sponsors.

“This was tabled in the context of declaring a political and media and diplomatic war on my country,” Ja’afari told the committee, which is comprised of the 193 U.N. member states.

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“It is a declaration of war that aims to affect the independence of our political decision-making and stop us from moving ahead in our national political agendas,” he said.

Syria has promised the United Nations that it would halt military operations against civilians and implement political reforms. But U.N. officials say Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has failed to keep any of his promises.

The draft resolution says the committee “strongly condemns the continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities, such as arbitrary executions, excessive use of force and the persecution and killing of protesters and human rights defenders.”….

Syrian cameraman killed his eyes gouged out, Mr. Ferzat Jarban, in the town of al-Qasir.

Hezbollah reaffirms support to Syrian regime – 2011-11-22

BEIRUT, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) — Lebanese Shiite armed group Hezbollah confirmed Monday its support to Syria and Iran against ” international conspiracies” and said it opposed that Lebanon be used as a launch pad for plots against its biggest neighbor.

“What is taking place in Syria is an international conspiracy that targets Syria due to its position as a rejectionist state as well as its supportive policies to Arab and Islamic resistance movements, especially in Palestine,” Hezbollah and its ally Lebanese Shiite group the Amal Movement said in a joint statement.

“We affirm our support to Syria, its people, army and institutions, and oppose the use of Lebanon as a launch pad to conspire against sisterly Syria,” the statement added.

“In a significant failure for the United States in the Mideast, more than a dozen spies working for the CIA in Iran and Lebanon have been caught and the U.S. government fears they will be or have been executed, according to four current and former U.S. officials with connections to the intelligence community.

The spies were paid informants recruited by the CIA for two distinct espionage rings targeting Iran and the Beirut-based Hezbollah organization, considered by the U.S. to be a terror group backed by Iran.”

Some Damascene businessmen still supporting the regime:

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22/11/2011

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Webster Tarpley : Western powers are behind the violence in Syria RT

Turkish Leader Calls for Assad to Resign in Syria
By SEBNEM ARSU, November 22, 2011

ISTANBUL, Turkey — In his most blatant criticism yet of Syria’s political repression, the prime minister of Turkey said for the first time on Tuesday that the Syrian president should resign, raising the pressure on him from a country that Syria had once counted as its friendliest neighbor and economic partner.

The criticism by the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, was not totally unexpected, given Mr. Erdogan’s increasing exasperation with Mr. Assad’s intransigence over the political uprising against him, now in its eighth month. But Mr. Erdogan’s comments were notable nonetheless for his explicit language, in which he also likened Mr. Assad to the self-delusional dictators of history who have met violent and messy ends, most recently Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya.

“Just remove yourself from that seat before shedding more blood, before torturing more and for the welfare of your country as well as the region,” Mr. Erdogan said of Mr. Assad in a televised statement at his party meeting in Ankara.

Rifaat al-Assad’s version of what happened in Hama

If you are interested in what Salafi and Wahabi shaykhs are saying about Syria and the Alawis, watch this Fundamentalist Christian network with clips of a number of shaykhs. It is revealing.

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Independent: Robert Fisk: Egyptian crisis gives Syria time to talk about democracy, 2011-11-23
Robert Fisk

Egypt is the best thing to happen to Syria for a long time. Just when Western leaders – and Qatar – were hounding President Bashar al-Assad for his brutal suppression of opposition demonstrations, along comes the latest crisis in Egyptian cities …

U.S.’s Rice Will Say UN Mandate Stopped Rwanda Repeat in Libya, 2011-11-23
By Flavia Krause-Jackson

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice will say the use of military firepower against Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi prevented a catastrophe akin to the 1994 Rwanda genocide, in the capital Kigali today. “Every situation is different, of course, and calls for a different policy response,” Rice will say in a speech today, according to a draft obtained by Bloomberg News. “Yet many of us heard strong echoes of 1994 when Muammar Qaddafi promised that he would root out the people of Benghazi and go house to house killing innocents like ‘rats.’” Visiting Rwanda after a surprise trip to Libya, Rice’s comments come as the international community pursues alternatives to military intervention to stop bloodshed in Syria, where a government crackdown on protesters has killed more than 3,500 people, according to UN estimates.

‘The tide turns against Bashar Assad’ (The Economist)

“Turkey, the neighbour with the biggest punch, has been fiercest in calling for Syria’s regime to reform or die. Its government hosts the main political opposition, the Syrian National Council (SNC), and harbours the leaders of the Free Syrian Army, a burgeoning group of defecting soldiers. More recently Turkey has threatened to cut off electricity to northern Syria. Tensions between Syria’s internal and external opposition inevitably persist, though the SNC is doing quite well in maintaining a broad front that includes a strong component of Muslim Brothers as well as secular liberals. Some council members may be drawing premature hope from Libya’s experience, in the unwise expectation that the West and the UN may impose a no-fly zone over Syria and invoke a “responsibility to protect” civilians. Despite the Arab League’s increasingly robust demands that Mr Assad should engage in a proper dialogue, he still seems unlikely to do so. But his room for manoeuvre is a lot more limited than it was even a month ago.”

MSNBC: Syria’s Assad vows to continue crackdown despite Arab League pressure
2011-11-20 01:19:11.139 GMT

Arab League Peace Effort in Syria Appears at Impasse
BY: Patrick J. McDonnell | Los Angeles Times

An Arab initiative to end violence in Syria appeared at an impasse Sunday, as Damascus and Arab foreign ministers failed to agree on a formula that would allow monitors into the country.

Syrian Rebel Group Claims Attack on Ruling Party Office in Damascu
BY: Hannah Allam | McClatchy Newspapers

Rocket-propelled grenades reportedly struck a Damascus office of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s Baath Party before dawn Sunday, the first attack of its kind in the capital since an anti-government uprising began last spring.

The SNC has finally issued it’s proposed “plan”. This comes three months after the Tayyar proposal. The SNC agenda claims it is committed to eliminating Syria’s present discrimination of non-Muslims and women. To stay true to this declaration it will have to eliminate article 3 of the constitution:

Article 3 [Islam]

(1) The religion of the President of the Republic has to be Islam.

(2) Islamic jurisprudence is a main source of legislation.

The SNC platform insists that it is committed to “Criminalizing all forms of oppression, exclusionary policies, and discrimination on the basis of ethnic or religious background, or gender.” The Muslim Brotherhood seems not to have had much to do with writing this document. Article 3 was inserted into the constitution after widespread demonstrations in 1973 protesting the Baathist attempt to eliminate special reference to Islam and religion as a basis for selecting the president and informing legislation.

The constitution guarantees national rights for the Kurdish people and a resolution to the Kurdish question in a democratic and fair manner within the framework of the unity of Syrian territory and people, as well as the exercise of rights and responsibilities of equal citizenship among all citizens.

The SNC is now working on a transitional government.

U.S.-based social science professor Amr al-Azm told Reuters: “The Council’s program has good points but the Council is acting like a political party rather than a broad opposition movement.”

The 260-member Syrian National Council, which is leading the opposition against the Assads’ 41-year rule, said a conference will take place in Egypt under the auspices of the Arab League, to bring together political factions and independent figures to plan the transition and set rules for a democratic system. “The opposition is more mature now. It is ready to agree on a common vision,” said SNC spokeswoman Bassma Kodmani.

Fawaz Gerges

“The Syrian regime is not isolated internally as many would like to believe. It retains a strong social base of support in major centers like Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia where 60% of the population live,” Gerges said. “There is a real danger that Syria has already descended into a prolonged conflict no one knows its outcome internally and regionally. I don’t see a way out for the Assad regime. Assad has no exit strategy. This is a fight to the bitter end for the family, the clan, with the mentality: either I am going to be killed or I kill my enemy,” Gerges said.

The Syrian government committee to rewrite the constitution claims it will eliminate Article 8, which proclaims the Baath Party the leader of politics and society in Syria.

Syp at 54.80: The Central Bank of Syria sold through an auction some USD 15 million in foreign currencies last week as it attempts to counter pressures on the Syrian Pound.

Feodor Saveliev writes “The Russian nuclear naval strike group was introduced in Syria”

Syrian opposition  leaders belonging to the SNC will hold talks in Montreal on teh 27th of november. Here is the announcement:?
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—-

Syrian TV had the ministers of electricity and oil on Saturday afternoon.

The most important points expressed by the oil minister were that the tankers going from Homs to Damascus and Aleppo have been attacked several times by terrorists. This supports the report of Syria Comment in my last post. The gas trucks are being stolen or attacked in Homs. Also the pipeline from the refinery in Homs going to Aleppo have been sabotaged or attacked. The pipeline was attacked over a 100 times in Hama province and 280+ times in Idlib province.

He claimed that the amount of mazoot sent to each mohafaza has increased this year from 40-100 percent according to the request of each governor (exept for Homs which witnessed reduced consumption). The other reason is the distribution policies. So their could be corruption there too.

To summarize the reasons for the mazoot crisis:
1-Early cold weather
2-Sabotage and criminal acts
3-Poor distribution policies
4-Increased smuggling
5-monopolistic acts by private sector distributors.

Video of the long lines waiting for gas in Homs.

Here are a few comments by friends who watched the Oil minister on Syrian TV.

• Syrian subsidizes mazoot by 500 billion syp or $10 billion dollars. This is 20% of gdp. It is the equivalent to the US Subsidizing oil by $2.8 trillion (20% of gdp)

• The Syrian government has been unable to build refineries or upgrade this in over 10 years of planning, which leaves Syria at the mercy of the international community and the EU today. Syria cannot afford to build even one refinery today, which is estimated to cost some $5-7 billion.
• Mazoot in Syria costs only syp = 15. In Lebanon it is Syria syp = 50. In Turkey the cost is syp = 105 Why would a Syria sell it for 15 when he can sell it at 30 to a group of guys who can get it into lebanon and sell it for 40 there or take it to Turkey and sell it for 60 or 70 there? By the way, you cannot find Mazoot at 22-25 as people are now claiming. In Aleppo one now has to pay 30 SYP for a liter of mazoot. People are in line for 3 hours to get 20 liters of mazout. Unbelievable.

What started as peaceful protests in Egypt’s Tahrir Square on Friday have escalated to clashes with security forces spreading to at least seven other cities over the past three days. The protesters are calling for the end of military rule by Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, who have been in power since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. They are criticized for seeking “supra-constitutional” powers in the drafting of a new constitution and for their proposed timetable keeping them in power until 2013. In battles between the army attempting to clear the square of protesters and rock-throwing demonstrators, an estimated 24people have been killed and over 1,700 wounded,

Revolutionary road: Among the Syrian opposition
By Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS-Middle East 15/11/2011 11:34:15

After meeting with Assad loyalists and opponents in Lebanon last week, it is clear that the Syrian uprising’s third phase will be not only more violent but could be a decisive one. Free Syrian Army (FSA) commanders told me that they are gearing up for direct confrontation in coming months with the forces loyal to President Assad, regardless of whether they have the support of a foreign intervention.

They say defections are increasing, and a FSA officer boasted to me that men at arms number 17,000 across the country (most go north to the Turkish border, while an estimated 500 are coalescing at the border with Lebanon). Until regional conditions improve to their benefit, FSA commanders told me they are advising sympathisers to delay their defection.

Asked about his level of confidence in the Syrian National Council (SNC), the opposition’s umbrella group, a senior FSA officer said there were contacts but also disagreements because SNC members didn’t understand security matters. He also said that the FSA had to force the SNC to harden its position by threatening to form and announce an independent Syrian Military Council…

The business elites and Sunni urban class of Damascus and Aleppo have not yet deserted the regime. And, arguably thanks to regime manipulation, the uprising is increasingly acquiring a sectarian colouring. ….

The members of the FSA I met or talked to make another case: while they certainly care about the protection of civilians, they argue that only when Assad’s air dominance is eroded can major units defect with all their gear and heavy weaponry and confront the regime’s hardcore loyalists. They say it makes no sense for these would-be defectors to flee with mechanised assets, transport vehicles and command-and-control equipment if this makes them more visible and more vulnerable from the air. They add that a no-fly zone would help them capture and occupy barracks, government buildings, roads and other infrastructure, which they have refrained from doing so until now. To be sure, this military rationale does not align with the logic of humanitarian intervention under the responsibility to protect doctrine that was invoked in Libya…

Guardian (GB): After Syria’s year of revolution, the end of Assad is in sight
By Rana Kabani, 2011-11-21

….I, for one, can remember a Syria…. where religion was still safely lodged in the house where it belonged, along with the wine-coloured prayer rug, the amber rosary and the manuscript Qur’an on its mussadaf stand. A Syria before Jamil Assad – Bashar’s uncle – allowed Iranian officials to enter our borders gleefully with their sackfuls of cash to recompense conversions….

The consequences of 40 years of the policies of Hafez al-Assad and then his son Bashar – which turned our national army into a sectarian mafia family’s private militia, and our state’s coffers into that family’s piggy bank to be raided at whim – have been the tit-for-tat sectarian crime that has so revolted the vast majority of Syrians, who have seen post-occupation Iraq martyred by sectarian killing fields, and the government of Lebanon become hostage to an armed state within a state…. we see the end in sight for the “banality of evil”. It’s been a long and painful time coming.

Abdullah Ghadawi interviews Tayyib Tazini

Maher Arar on the Syrian Conflict video interview by TRNN.

Under pressure to act on syria, Turkey rules out intervention Zaman
20 November 2011, Sunday / CEREN KUMOVA/NOAH BLASER, ANKARA/?STANBUL

As voices from within Syria’s opposition movement increasingly call for a Turkish “civilian protection” mission in Syria’s eight-month-old conflict, Turkish officials have denied speculation that Turkey is discussing a no-fly zone with opposition groups and say that peaceful methods must first be exhausted in the Syrian conflict.

“There exist no military plans between Turkey and Syrian opposition, and no plans for a Turkish move have even been discussed,” a Turkish official told Sunday’s Zaman. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the fragile nature of a possible military move against Syria, insisted that a possible Turkish mission to intervene in conflict between president Bashar al-Assad and anti-regime protesters was a “one-sided” plan. The official’s words come as opposition forces increasingly called for some form of outside intervention in a conflict that the UN estimates has claimed over 3,500 lives.

Saudi Arabia expands its power as U.S. influence diminishes
By David Ignatius, November 18, Wash Post

Over this year of Arab Spring revolt, Saudi Arabia has increasingly replaced the United States as the key status-quo power in the Middle East — a role that seems likely to expand even more in coming years as the Saudis boost their military and economic spending….

The more-assertive Saudi role has been clear in its open support for the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is Iran’s crucial Arab ally. The Saudis were decisive backers of last weekend’s Arab League decision to suspend Syria’s membership (though they also supported the organization’s waffling decision Wednesday to send another mediation team to Damascus). Money is always the Saudis’ biggest resource, and they are planning to spend it more aggressively as a regional power broker — by roughly doubling their armed forces over the next 10 years and spending at least $15 billion annually to support countries weakened economically by this year’s turmoil. …

The Saudi shopping list is a bonanza for U.S. and European arms merchants. That’s especially true of the air force procurement, with the Saudis planning to buy 72 “Eurofighters” from EADS and 84 new F-15s from Boeing. The rationale is containing Iran, whose nuclear ambitions the Saudis strongly oppose. But Riyadh has an instant deterrent ready, too, in the form of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal that the Saudis are widely believed to have helped finance.

Big weapons purchases have been a Saudi penchant for decades. More interesting, in some ways, is their quiet effort to provide support to friendly regimes to keep the region from blowing itself up in this period of instability. The Saudis have budgeted $4 billion this year to help Egypt, $1.4 billion for Jordan, and $500 million annually over the next decade for Bahrain and Oman. They will doubtless pump money, as well, to Syria, Yemen and Lebanon once the smoke clears in those volatile countries.

“In outlays, we’ve budgeted $15 billion a year just to keep the peace,” says one Saudi source, adding up the economic assistance to Arab neighbors. But that’s hardly a stretch for a country that, by year-end, will have about $650 billion in foreign reserves.

The Saudis speak more charitably of the United States than they did a few months ago, after reassuring visits by Vice President Biden and national security adviser Tom Donilon, and close military and intelligence cooperation continues. But President Obama is seen as a relatively weak leader who abandoned his own call for a Palestinian state under Israeli pressure. The United States isn’t exactly the god that failed, but its divine powers are certainly suspect in Riyadh.

Opposition figure warns that Syria could be ‘drifting towards civil war’
The Irish Times – Saturday, November 19, 2011

Writer and former political prisoner Louay Hussein talks to MICHAEL JANSEN in Damascus

SYRIAN OPPOSITION leader Louay Hussein regards the crisis in his country as “most dangerous” and believes “all indications say the situation is drifting towards civil war”, although a “majority of Syrians are against war”.

Speaking to The Irish Times in the modest office of the Building the Syrian State movement he founded, Hussein, a writer and political prisoner from 1984 to 1991, explains why he takes such a dark view.

“People who took part in the protests during the first three months were different from the people now,” he says.

The original protesters “had political ideas and values and called for liberty and equality. They were for positive action . . . During this stage, I was part of the movement in the street, as an organiser. But we lost contact because of arrests and loss of communications.”

Then, he says, “others joined the protests in reaction” to killings and detentions.

“They regard this regime as murderers rather than a tyranny or dictatorship and raise harmful slogans” by calling for external intervention or executing Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Hussein, a slim professorial figure with grey curls and a bristle of moustache beneath an eagle nose, adds: “Now protests are diminishing because of the violence and the occupation of protest zones by the security forces.”

He estimates that 15,000 people have been detained since protests began in mid-March, and says there has been a turnover in the prisons, with some people arrested while others are released. “I know the situation from experience. I multiply how many people can stand in a cell by the number of prisons,” he jokes.

Hussein does not think the Syrian National Council, an umbrella grouping of mainly exiled opposition groups favoured by the West, could gain international recognition and sideline Syria-based factions with popular followings. “I do not think the US is ready to recognise this council.”

In his view, the EU will follow Washington’s lead but perhaps not Turkey, which brokered the formation of the council. He expresses concern that Ankara might try to use its strong ties to the council to advance Turkey’s agenda on the international scene. However, he observes that the “council has a lot of financial and diplomatic support. Many EU states give visas to its members but not to us.”

He adds that “council members say what outsiders want to hear”, without elaborating.

Hussein warns that it is “dangerous” for outside powers to rely exclusively on opposition groups “because they do not represent the will of all the people . . . some support the regime”. He says it would be a mistake to equate the Syrian National Council with the rebel movement that took power in Libya.

In spite of escalating clashes between the army and armed opposition elements, Hussein insists that the uprising must be peaceful and hopes the Free Syrian Army formed by deserters will be marginalised.

“I don’t know anything about the origin of the Free Syrian Army. It has no political arm . . . Its members want to fight tyranny to bring tyranny. I’m afraid they will be freedom fighters like the Taliban of Afghanistan.”

Commenting on the opposition, he says: “Historically, the opposition has always been in a bad situation, it is not organised.”

He does not believe veteran leaders who have fought the regime in the past and served terms in prison can lead at this juncture. “We need new leaders to emerge from the street.”

His movement urges dialogue while the Syrian National Council rejects contact with the regime. He was the first to organise a meeting of opposition groups in Damascus. This took place at the end of June.

“There is always a possibility for dialogue,” he says, but dialogue can take place only “when the regime is ready for dialogue”. Unfortunately, he says, the regime “thinks dialogue is an exchange of points of view . . . not a means of reaching accommodation”.

“We tried many times to speak with the government. At first the regime did not acknowledge us, now it recognises us. Now that the time is ripe for dialogue, conditions do not give us a chance.”

He pauses, adding: “We don’t trust the government.”

Free Syria Army gathers on Lebanese border
Rebels say conflict is now inevitable – and government forces are hedging their bets
Martin Chulov, The Guardian, Fri 18 Nov 2011

Somewhere along the emerald green ridge ahead Syrian troops guard the restive border with Lebanon. Behind them lie piles of upturned orange earth where land mines have been freshly buried. Ahead of them, across a deep, rain-soaked valley which spills into Lebanon, the rebels who were once their comrades in arms are preparing for war.
The rebels of the Free Syria Army who have found refuge on this volatile strip of borderland move freely around on motorbikes that are well within range of Syrian loyalist snipers. But they say they no longer fear their former army colleagues in the hills nearby. Instead, they are looking to them for help.

“There are 100 of them in the valley,” said a former member of an intelligence unit who fled the embattled city of Hama in August and is now based in the Lebanese village of Nsoub. “But the day before yesterday I personally brought 30 people here.” Of the troops still serving with the Syrian army, he said: “They helped.”

Senior commanders have ordered their men to seal the border, but the sharp rise in defectors to have crossed into northern Lebanon in the past week suggests that many soldiers are already hedging their bets.

And Syria’s growing isolation also seems to be invigorating the exiled defectors, who this week received about 70 men who were all sent on to safety within a day of crossing the border.
“We have been talking with them [the nearby troops] for many months,” says a second man, a Lebanese national who lived in Syria for 25 years, but fled when the uprising started in March. “There are many who are waiting to see what happens before making their move.”

This rag-tag group does not pretend to have a leader calling the shots. Like the rest of the nascent Free Syria Army, the rebels of north Lebanon appear to be a loosely formed force with no direction from any central command.

But someone in northern Lebanon is helping them co-ordinate an exodus, and plan for an escalation that they all say is now inevitable.

“Most of the [defecting] soldiers are not deployed in the places where they live,” said the newly returned Lebanese man. “So when they get [into Lebanon] they are being sent on to cross the border [back into Syria] in the nearest area to their home.”

Some of the group of 30 who arrived on Wednesday are thought to have been sent to Turkey, where they will then be redeployed to areas along the border near their home villages.
Once inside Syria the men will join the growing band of rebels, who have launched a string of attacks on regime forces, culminating this week in their most audacious operation so far: an assault on naval intelligence bases on the outskirts of Damascus.

The men say they don’t know who paid for their journeys. “All I know is that I call members of the co-ordinating committee,” said the defected soldier. “They come and get them and then I don’t see them. There are definitely more [defectors] than there used to be.”

Those who have fled say the situation inside Syria has now passed the point of no return.

Globe Mail [Reg]: ‘Untouchable’ Assad ruled by duty to family
2011-11-19

Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s President for 11 years, speaks the lines of Western liberalism but plays the part of ruthless dictator. He’s the leader who allowed Syrians to have cellphones and access to the Internet; who ushered in economic and …

CIA forced to curb spying in Lebanon

The agency’s crucial post in Beirut is affected after the arrest of several informants this year, sources say.

By Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times, November 21, 2011

The CIA was forced to curtail its spying in Lebanon, where U.S. operatives and their agents collect crucial intelligence on Syria, terrorist groups and other targets, after the arrests of several CIA informants in Beirut this year, according to U.S. officials and other sources.

“Beirut station is out of business,” a source said, using the CIA term for its post there. The same source, who declined to be identified while speaking about a classified matter, alleged that up to a dozen CIA informants have been compromised, but U.S. officials disputed that figure.

An Aleppine friend writes:

The mazout (fuel-oil) problem in Aleppo is coming from transportation risks. Trucks are being hit as they travel from Homs and Banias and their mazout is being either stolen or destroyed. Without safe transportation routes, Aleppo is finding it hard to get the needed mazout to be delivered.

Another Aleppine answers:

Yes I heard that the pipes serving Aleppo with fuel have also been sabotaged several times. If true, not sure if it’s act of revenge (for inaction by halabis) or terrorist act planned to pressure halabis economically to rise. The Syrian government has reportedly agreed to allow an Arab League monitoring mission in the country in principle.

Bad news for the Assad government came in droves this week as its isolation grew with the Arab League threat of suspension and growing numbers of dead, including soldiers due to ever bolder and larger attacks from rebels. The sanctions have begun to really bite. Upper class Syrians are beginning to feel the pain for the first time, as everyday commodities begin to go missing in the marketplace. It is not clear whether fuel-oil has dried up because the government is running out of money or because the roads are no longer safe, causing fuel trucks to be vandalized. Growing reports of lawlessness, suggest that the military’s grip is loosening and more and more Syrians are taking up arms. The Syrian National Council continues to advise against the militarization of the opposition, but increasingly Syrians are getting arms and fighting back. There does not seem to be much unity to the opposition or deference to the SNC on the part of local Syrian groups. There have been many whispered projections that the regime will fall within months and is near a tipping point of cascading failures, but one must take such predictions with a grain of salt.  Many people predicted the fall of the regime by the end of Ramadan. All the same, the pace of bad news for the government has certainly been quickening.

US policy makers seem to be at cross purposes and arguing against each other. When Russia claimed that Syria is slipping into civil war, State Department spokesman, Mark Toner denied it. Hilary Clinton then contradicted Toner to agreed with the Russian assessment. Why did Toner deny tsi vehemently that Syria is moving toward civil war? The US wants Russia to condemn Assad in the UN. Its narrative is that unarmed Syrian protesters are being killed by the bad regime – therefore, the bad regime must go. Russia seeks to contradict this narrative with the civil war argument. It insists that foreign powers should stay out of Syria’s civil war and refuses to go along with a UN condemnation in order to ensure this. Russia insists that foreign meddling and proxy fighting in Syria will only make matters worse. Clinton probably hadn’t been briefed on Toner’s policy statement. Most likely she was simply repeating what her analysts are telling her – Syria is slipping toward civil war.

DJ Clinton Says ‘There Could Be A Civil War’ In Syria
2011-11-18

WASHINGTON (AFP)–U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Friday of the possibility of a civil war in Syria that either is directed or influenced by Syrian army defectors. “I think there could be a civil war with a very determined and well-armed and eventually well-financed opposition that is, if not directed by, certainly influenced by defectors from the army,” Clinton told NBC.

DJ US Disagrees With Russia View Of Syrian Opposition
2011-11-17 19:49:15.600 GMT

WASHINGTON (AFP)–The U.S. on Thursday disagreed with Russia’s assessment that attacks by renegade Syrian troops risked plunging Syria into civil war, blaming the regime in Damascus for the violence. “We think that’s an incorrect assessment,” U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner told reporters after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the assessment. “If it (Russia) characterizes it as a civil war, we view that it is very much the (President Bashar al-) Assad regime carrying out a campaign of violence, intimidation and repression against innocent protesters,” Toner said. “We don’t view it as a civil war,” he said when asked again if he disagreed with Lavrov, who was reacting to Wednesday’s attack by Syrian army defectors known as the Free Syrian Army on a military intelligence base outside Damascus…..

Clinton added bluntly, “Assad’s going to be gone, it’s just a question of time.” ..In an interview with CBS News chief White House correspondent Norah O’Donnell today,

Nour Malas investigates the conflicting stories about the reputed Harasta attack of the Free Syrian Army

Arab League Delays Discipline Against Syria
By MATT BRADLEY in Rabat, Morocco, and NOUR MALAS in Dubai for Wall Street Journal

…..Wednesday also saw mounting violence from opposition supporters, with the dissident Free Syrian Army launching what it appeared to be its closest operation to central Damascus, the capital, and announcing it was creating a transitional military council to oust Mr. Assad.

Though reports of the incident vary—as do activist accounts of the size and strength of the dissident army itself—the attack on an air-force intelligence headquarters in Harasta, a suburb just outside the capital, is a defiant strike against one of the fiercest of Syria’s many security arms.

“The air-force intelligence bears the largest part of resentment and anger that activists have for the regime,” said Omar Idlibi, a spokesperson for the Local Coordination Committees, and a member of the Syrian National Council, an opposition group. “It has led the way in quelling the uprising and also recently focused on trying to crush the Free Syrian Army.”

Mr. Idlibi said the intelligence agency had as many as 300 soldiers in detention, some of them defected officers and others who were suspected of sympathizing with the protest movement.

By the committees’ account, a battalion from the Free Syrian Army attacked the building at 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday, in three separate groups, with rocket-propelled grenades and gunfire, burning it to the ground.

A defected soldier who is part of the dissident army group—but wasn’t involved in the Harasta attack—said the operation was launched after 70 soldiers from that air-force unit had defected and started fighting security guards. Backed by the dissident batallion, they shot RPGs and fired heavy machine guns, killing soldiers and burning down the building, said the soldier. Syria’s government didn’t report the incident on state media.

Other activist groups, meanwhile, gave different accounts. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the building was attacked, but not burned down.

Louay Hussein, a dissident writer in Damascus, said diplomats in the capital “went to the area and didn’t see signs of a major battle.”

The varying reports from Syria, where information on the uprising provided largely by activist accounts and video footage can’t be verified independently, highlight a growing rift among activists, with some accusing others of playing up both the regime’s violence and their own dissident army’s capabilities.

“The desire for international intervention that some have is perhaps leading them to exaggerate some news sometimes to increase the sense of urgency and pressure,” Mr. Hussein said.

Twenty people were killed by security forces during protests on Wednesday, the Local Coordination Committees said.

Analysts said that even if the Free Syrian Army’s recent increase in operations was overstated, it is symbolically significant. With the dissident army’s growing boldness, and rising casualties among Syria’s military and security forces, “the situation is in serious danger of spiraling beyond the regime’s control,” IHS Global Insight said in a note on Wednesday.

The Free Syrian Army’s statement Wednesday that it would create a council appears to reflect a push to organize defected soldiers across provinces in Syria. “We will be uniting all the provinces and coordinating between batallions so we can finally overthrow this regime,” the defected soldier said by telephone from an area bordering Lebanon. The group was also working with the Syrian National Council, the opposition body, on a framework for logistical support.

“There are thousands more who will defect,” the dissident soldier said, “but there’s no support and no weapons.”

—Inti Landauro and Nadya Masidlover in Paris contributed to this article.

Do not attack Syria
BY AARON DAVID MILLER, 19 November 2011, The New York Times

The Arab League suspends Syrian membership; the king of Jordan calls for Bashar al-Assad’s departure; Turkey appears ready for more aggressive anti-Assad measures; defectors from the Syrian Army are attacking regime targets. And all the while the regime continues killing its people with impunity.

Now is the time for America to step up and lead a NATO military intervention to topple the Syrian regime?

No. It Isn’t. Military intervention now will not work. Do not look to Libya for lessons on how to overthrow this dictator. If anything, the Libyan model is a cautionary tale, and potentially a whole lot of trouble if the lesson is ignored.

As painful as it is to watch unarmed civilians killed, sometimes discretion – at least for America, and at least for now – really is the better part of valor.

Libya isn’t Syria. But it was low-hanging fruit – at least from the perspective of outside intervention. A big empty place roughly the size of Alaska with a long coastline, lacking sophisticated air assets or air defenses, and run by a regime of thugs and clowns, Muammar el-Qaddafi’s Libya offered a reasonable prospect for NATO military success.

It still took eight messy, bloody months to topple Qaddafi. Indeed, there were moments when even the champions of intervention in the Obama administration wondered whether it would work.

Intervention by committee, backed by unorganized rebels, was never going to be easy. But we Americans were wise to resist pressures to finish the job more quickly by taking the direct lead. It was important to involve the Europeans and the Arabs – it’s their neighborhood, after all – and to let the Libyans gain the legitimacy of their own liberation (albeit with a huge NATO assist).

The Assad regime is rotten fruit, but it’s not at all clear whether it’s ready to fall. Unlike Libya, where the opposition was divided, but at least held control of parts of the country, the Syrian opposition is inchoate, and lacks even a rudimentary armed component. It is stunningly vulnerable; it does not control parts of the country from which it can operate or where it can be assisted.

The opposition would like to create such sanctuaries, but there’s no sense that it can do this yet, and the regime is determined to stop it. In Rastan, a key town along a central road to the Syrian-Turkish border, the regime sent in hundreds of tanks to do precisely that.

Then there’s the problem of assembling an international coalition. Yes, the world is outraged and Syria is under sanctions and isolated. But the prospects of mobilizing the United Nations Security Council to sanction a NATO intervention are nill. The Russians and the Chinese are dead set against it; the French, British and Americans are squeamish, and for good reason.

Plus Syria still has friends in the region. None that can save it, to be sure, but some who would do what they can to complicate an allied intervention, including Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Turkey will support tougher rhetoric and sanctions against Assad, but Ankara will not get out in front on any military intervention. The Israelis might be able to help with intelligence, but keeping them at a distance would be critical to any successful intervention in Syria.

The battle for Syria would likely be a long one. The interveners would need a coalition of the truly willing prepared to stick to it, and probably to intercede with boots on the ground.

A coalition of the partially committed would not work. Once military actions began, there would be no turning back. Escalation would be inevitable against a regime that will use every instrument it possesses to survive. There’s no room for encouraging the opposition and then not being prepared to support it.

Last week, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq apologized to the Shia community for the failure of the United States to do more in 1991 after it encouraged Shia opposition to Saddam Hussein. We do not want that to be repeated.

The options on Syria are not happy ones. We can’t stick our heads in the sand, nor can we lose them.

For now, the measures that make sense include tightening sanctions; pushing the United Nations to dispatch human-rights monitors; monitoring the Syrian-Lebanese and Syrian-Turkish borders; and pushing the Arabs and the Turks to start supporting the Syrian opposition with money and clandestine military aid should they want it.

If the time comes to consider military action, politicians and military planners should think it through very carefully. Syria is not Libya; the potential for sectarian violence and even civil war, coupled with the possibility of outside intervention, makes the complexities and rivalries of post-Qaddafi Libya seem mild by comparison.

Inaction by the international community while a brutal regime kills its people has its costs, but so does big-footing by great powers. One thing we know about discretionary, poorly conceived military action is that getting into such conflicts is always a lot easier than getting out.

The devil we knew
BY ITAMAR RABINOVICH
19 November 2011, The New York Times

During the first 25 years of its existence, until Hafez al-Assad came to power in 1970, the Syrian republic was a weak unstable state, an arena in which regional and international rivalries were played out. The first Assad reversed this state of affairs by turning Syria into a comparatively stable and powerful state, a player in regional and international politics.

This was part of the unwritten pact between the regime and Syria’s urban population. Stability, prestige and a leading role in Arab nationalist ‘‘resistance’’ (to the United States and Israel) made up for the regime’s authoritarianism and corruption, and the hegemony of the minority Alawite sect.

The outbreak of the revolt against the regime last March marked the end of this unwritten contract, and pushed Syria back to its pre-1970 state. It is once again an arena of regional and international rivalries, reflecting the changes that are transforming the region’s politics.

The Syrian revolt is, of course, primarily a struggle between the regime — now led by Assad’s son Bashar — and its domestic foes over the nature and character of the Syrian state. But it is equally significant as a war by proxy between Iran and its rivals…..

More recently, however, Saudi Arabia came to the conclusion that defeating Iran on the Syrian stage is the dominant consideration. This conclusion is shared by other Arab states, which explains the shift in the Arab League’s position and the extraordinary steps it has taken against the Assad regime.

It is also a prime example of how ‘‘soft power’’ can be used by countries, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, that may not be a military match for Tehran.

The roles played by Turkey and the Arab League are also a byproduct of the modest role played by the United States.

In the Libyan crisis, President Obama sought to ‘‘lead from behind.’’ In the Syrian crisis, Washington does not lead at all. Yes, the American ambassador, Robert Ford, played a courageous role; the administration imposed some sanctions, and has used strong words to denounce Assad. But Washington does not have a coherent policy, and seems content to have regional powers in the driver’s seat in this crisis.

Israel is passive as well. In 2005, when George W. Bush wanted to topple Bashar al-Assad, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon cautioned against doing so, using the ‘‘devil we know’’ argument. Assad was Iran’s close ally and Lebanon’s oppressor, a patron of Hamas and an anti-American actor in Iraq, but the alternative to his rule, according to the conventional wisdom at the time, was the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is not Israel’s policy now. After the discovery of Assad’s secret cooperation with North Korea, and given the threats to its national security by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Israel came to the conclusion that there is more potential damage in Assad’s survival than in his departure……

There seems to be no real prospect of external military intervention in Syria. But the policies of external actors will have a major impact on the position of the Syrian army and on the middle classes of Damascus and Aleppo that so far have been sitting on the fence.

The United States, France and other powers that traditionally played an important role in the Levant do not need to resort to military action. They have a full arsenal of diplomatic and economic assets that could tilt the current conflict in Syria, put an end to brutal suppression and bloodshed, and help the Arab Spring register another achievement.

From on “intelligence” outfit. I heard that their research came up with 79.51% but they rounded up to 80%

Exclusive Analysis Special Report: Syria Risk Outlook
2011-11-18  www.exclusive-analysis.com

In the three-to-six month outlook, there is an increased likelihood (80%probability) of collapse of Ba’athist rule and civil war. The probable slide into full-scale civil war would make a limited Turkish military intervention more likely, particularly if backed by an Arab League request and token participation. A civil war would likely become a prolonged proxy war, with Iran backing the Alawi sect while Saudi Arabia and Turkey back the Sunni. We assess that only a successful coup against President al-Assad, if followed by the removal of the Ba’ath from power, can prevent the slide into civil war.

EXTRA: Syria says it is studying Arab League ultimatum
2011-11-17 11:35:20.113 GMT

Beirut (dpa)- Syria’s ambassador to the United States, ImadMustafa, said Thursday that Damascus was looking into an Arab League proposal to send monitors to Syria to protect civilians. “We will positively address matters that serve Syria’s interests,” Mustafa told Lebanon-based Al Manar Television. Arab League foreign ministers on Wednesday gave Syria three days to accept Arab monitors and halt its violent crackdown on critics…..

DJ UPDATE: Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood Open To Turkish intervention
2011-11-17

ISTANBUL (AFP)–The leader of Syria’s exiled Muslim Brotherhood said Thursday that his compatriots would accept Turkish “intervention” in the country to resolve months of bloody unrest. “The Syrian people would accept intervention coming from Turkey, rather than from the West, if its goal was to protect the people,” Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammad Riad Shakfa told a press conference…..

Robert Fisk: Assad will only go if his own tanks turn against him by Robert Fisk

Predictions of Syrian leader’s imminent demise are hopelessly optimistic…..

Syria Runs Short of Cash on Assad Spending
By Massoud A. Derhally – Nov 16, 2011

President Bashar al-Assad is paying Syrians, via subsidies and higher government salaries, to stay loyal to his government as it clamps down on an eight-month uprising. He may not be able to afford that policy for long.

A month after the unrest began, Assad dismissed a Cabinet that had been tasked with curbing government outlays, raising taxes and making the economy more competitive. The new administration increased subsidies on energy and other products. Civil service pay was raised by 30 percent. Syria has spent $3 billion from a $5 billion rainy-day fund defending the pound this year, central bank Governor Adib Mayaleh says.

Opening the purse-strings hasn’t stopped the protests, and their suppression by security forces, at a cost of thousands of lives, has left Syria increasingly isolated. The Arab League has suspended Syria amid calls for Assad to step down, and Turkey — a neighbor and key trade partner — is threatening commercial sanctions to add to those already imposed by the U.S. and European Union. In that environment, Assad’s bid to buy support may backfire as the money runs out and the economy shrinks, alienating supporters among Syria’s business community.

“They’re spending more money and getting less income,” said Chris Phillips, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London. “All of this is exacerbated by sanctions, and allies like the Persian Gulf countries are not providing any financial assistance, as they would have in the past. This position is economically unsustainable.”

Shrinking Economy

Syria’s $60 billion economy, which expanded 5.5 percent in 2010, may shrink 2 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, or at least 5 percent according to the Institute of International Finance. The government expects growth of 1 percent, Finance Minister Mohammad Al-Jleilati said in September.

The Damascus Securities Exchange Index has slumped 52 percent in dollar terms this year, compared with drops of 20 percent and 15 percent on the benchmarks of neighboring Lebanon and Jordan. The pound has slid 6 percent to about 50 per dollar.

Assad’s government plans to spend 1.33 trillion Syrian pounds ($27 billion) in 2012, an increase of 59 percent, according to the official Syrian Arab News Agency. The budget includes 386 billion pounds for energy and other subsidies and for financing social and agricultural aid funds, SANA said.

Syria is already running a deficit of 6.7 percent of GDP this year, almost double the 2010 figure, according to the IIF.
‘Pressure on Pound’

A wider gap will “increase inflationary pressures and the pressure on the pound,” said Nabil Sukkar, a former World Bank official who now runs the independent Syrian Consulting Bureau for Development and Investment in Damascus. The government should “effect across-the-board cuts in current expenditures while increasing investment spending to boost the economy.”

That’s similar to the strategy Assad was pursuing before the start of the revolt, inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Syria was seeking external investment too.

Then-deputy premier Abdallah Dardari, visiting France in September last year, said he was seeking bids to build power plants and a new terminal at Damascus airport. A planned auction for a mobile phone license was abandoned this year after unrest spread and companies including Abu Dhabi-based Etisalat Telecommunications Corp. and Turkey’s Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS pulled out.

Turkey, which has turned against former ally Assad, may cut power supplies to Syria after its embassies and consulates were attacked by government supporters this week, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Nov. 15. Further trade sanctions from Turkey could tighten the squeeze on Syria. The northern neighbor bought about 16 percent of Syria’s $2.8 billion of exports last year and supplied 14 percent of its imports, according to data from Sukkar and Turkey’s official statistics agency.
Sunni Elites

Syria’s economy was strengthened by Assad’s moves toward liberalization before this year, and it’s “not about to collapse,” Sukkar said. Those measures also won support for Assad from business leaders among the Sunni Muslim community, who haven’t abandoned him yet, he said. Assad’s family and many key security officials come from the minority Alawite faith, affiliated to Shiite Islam, while Sunnis make up about two- thirds of the population.

Still, there’s a risk those Sunni elites could turn against Assad if the economy deteriorates, Sukkar and Phillips said. While such groups probably wouldn’t join street protests, they may “consider moves against the regime behind the scenes,” Phillips said.

At the central bank, Mayaleh said that the pound is stable and he hasn’t depleted the country’s $18 billion of foreign currency reserves. Instead, Mayaleh said in an interview last month, he spent money from a fund set aside for a “black day.” Contingencies included a potential yearlong war with Israel in 2012, one person familiar with the fund’s planning said on condition of anonymity.
Assad’s ‘Failure’

The government’s worsening finances, with the increase in subsidies and salaries coupled with a 40 percent drop in tax revenue, will make it hard to maintain the stability of the pound, according to two Syrian bankers, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal.

That would amount to a vicious circle for Assad, said Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist who heads the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma in Norman.

“The failure of the Assad regime to provide for its people was a major spark for this revolution to begin with,” he said. “Now it’s only going to become worse.”

Globe Mail [Reg]: Only two powers can stop Syria’s brutality
2011-11-17

Syria is now at grave risk of descending into a prolonged civil war of attrition. The Arab League, most Arab states and Turkey have rightly denounced the violence against peaceful protests by many of the Syrian people, but their indignation may not …

Call for David Cameron to Lead Action Against Over Syria
2011-11-16 23:06:04.570 GMT

Nov. 16 (Telegraph) — David Cameron has been urged by at least one Arab state to lead a diplomatic offensive against Syria, after successfully cooperating with regional powers to oust Col Gaddafi, The Daily Telegraph has learned. Britain has been contacted directly and encouraged to act as a “team captain” to coordinate discussion of more robust actionagainst President Bashar al-Assad, and to plan for what isregarded as his inevitable departure.

“The West needs to lead and the international communityneeds to talk about what to do when the dam bursts in Syria,” said a senior Arab diplomatic source, adding that Syria’s neighbours held too many different views to coordinate effectively. “Leaving it all up to us you are going to get a lot of shenanigans. If you need a team captain on this you have got to go to the West,” the source added. The request to Downing Street came as Syrian military defectors attacked Damascus for the first time, striking an air force intelligence compound in a suburb of the capital with automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenades. A spokesman for the rebel Free Syrian Army claimed an administrative building was damaged in the pre-dawn attack.

The 22-member Arab League meanwhile on Wednesday night confirmed a motion to suspend Syria, in what was a bitter rebuke for a nation that regards itself as a bastion of Arab nationalism. The organisation gave the Syrian regime three days to halt violence against its people or face economic sanctions, Qatar’s prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said. “We cannot accept that people are being killed in the waythey are now,” said Sheikh Hamad. “We are moving to stop the flow of blood.”

Syrian Protesters Roll Out New iPhone Apps – Slashdot
2011-11-16

“Protesters in Syria, dealing with a strict media blackout, have rolled out new iPhone and iPad apps to share news, stories, and even jokes. Amid a brutal crackdown, rebels are fighting back on their iPhones. The Arab Spring’s newest weapon keeps …

Dr. ?Abdulbasit Sayda, member of the Executive Committee of the Syrian National Council:

»There is no agreement between the Syrian National Council and the Turkish government«

KURDWATCH, November 18, 2011—Dr. ?Abdulbasit Sayda (b. 1956, doctorate in philosophy, married, four children) has been living in exile in Sweden since 1994. In 2003 his book »The Kurdish Question in Syria« was published. In a conversation with KURDWATCH ?Abdulbasit Sayda spoke about the work of the Syrian National Council, an oppositional coalition that was founded in Istanbul on October 2, 2011.

KurdWatch: Can you tell us about the beginnings of the Syrian National Council and Kurdish involvement in it?
Dr. ?Abdulbasit Sayda: Before the founding of the Syrian National Council, there were several Syrian oppositional conferences abroad. Everyone hoped that these conferences would help the Syrian revolution succeed. Unfortunately this was not the case. On the plus side, however, Syrians got to know each other at these conferences. Prior to this, this was not the case. Thus, for example, the people from al-Qamishli did not know the people from Dar?a and vice versa. But we were not satisfied with this outcome. In order to achieve better results, we, twenty-five Syrian academics and experts from all over the world, met in August in Istanbul. We became convinced that we should establish a Syrian National Council. At the time this was still a dream. We decided to make contact with all oppositional groups in order to convince them of the idea of the Syrian National Council. I myself had the task of contacting the Kurds. My goal was to reach all Kurdish parties and groups. I spoke with some personally. Others I contacted via friends and email. The Kurdish Union Party in Syria (Yekîtî) and the Kurdish Freedom Party in Syria (Azadî) were the only Kurdish parties that responded positively. Other parties declined to become involved in the Syrian National Council, and still others didn’t respond at all. The Kurdish youth groups also responded positively. Then the Kurdish Future Movement, representing the parties outside of the Kurdish party bloc that later took part in the Kurdish Patriotic Conference, welcomed our plan as well; they became a member of the National Council.

KurdWatch: How strongly are the Kurds represented in the National Council?
Dr. ?Abdulbasit Sayda: There are a total of 190 seats. The General Secretariat is composed of twenty-six members, seven of whom are members of the Executive Committee. Aside from me, there are three other Kurds in the General Secretariat. One of them is the common representative of the Azadî and Yekîtî. The Kurdish Future Movement also has a representative. An additional seat is not yet occupied. We are working so that the Kurdish revolutionary youth groups will also receive a seat in this body.

KurdWatch: That means that you sit on the National Council as a representative of the Kurds?
Dr. ?Abdulbasit Sayda: Yes.

KurdWatch: There are claims from people affiliated with the Kurdish parties that you became part of the National Council by way of the Muslim Brotherhood…..

Enterprise Blog: AEI Elsewhere—Obama’s Syrian failure, it’s all your fault, and more, 2011-11-18
By John R. Bolton

The U.S. has the wrong president for a Syrian intervention. “Obama’s Syrian failure”

Will Sanctions Bring Down the Syrian Regime?

It is doubtful that sanctions alone will cause regime-change in Syria. Economic deprivation and reduced government spending does not usually lead to regime-change. It is hard to think of a Middle Eastern government that has been brought down by sanctions. Some of the countries that have faced sanctions for decades are Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Sudan. Of course Gaza has faced severe sanctions in an effort to bring down the Hamas government with very little success. What sanctions do very effectively is make people poor and hungry. Governments are good at passing along the pain.  In Gaza there is 80% unemployment and widespread malnutrition but no regime change. The UN estimates that sanctions on Iraq killed over 300,000 Iraqis in the 1990s. Starving Syrians is not the intention of US and European policy makers who imposed the sanctions. They continue to insist that Assad will step down due to sanctions. But what Arab leader has ever stepped down as a result of having his country sanctioned? As Albert Einstein said, “Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

The good policy makers in Western capitals are not insane, so what are they up to?

1. Are they simply imposing sanctions because it is a politically inexpensive way to do something? After all, military intervention, which is the tested method to bring about regime change, is unthinkable today.
2. Could some policy makers be hoping to ratchet up the humanitarian disaster in Syria in order to create an “intervention friendly environment” down the road? This seems far fetched but the humanitarian argument was one of the more persuasive rationals for intervening in Iraq. The more extreme the disaster, the more extreme solutions people are willing to entertain.

The problem with sanctions is that they destroy national institutions, decimate the middle class, and degrade society. We saw this in Iraq. The results are not pretty. They make building democracy all the more difficult when the offending regime is finally overturned. The only thing we know about democracy promotion with any certainty is that its chances of success rise exponentially with greater per capita GDP.  A long sanctions regime can only hurt democracy promotion. We all know about the magic of the middle class. It is hard to do anything constructive in a country without one.

Religion. The Arab League vote split the Arab countries along Shiite-Sunni lines. Countries with large Shiite populations — Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen — voted with Syria or abstained. Another troubling aspect of the Syrian conflict is that the region’s minorities are remaining faithful to Assad and Syria’s Alawi-led regime even as it grows increasingly isolated. The Christian minority in the region has come out fairly solidly behind Assad. Egyptian Copts prayed for Assad in a large stadium the other day (Egyption Christians pray for Syrians And Syrian President 11-12-2011). Syriac Orthodox Archbishop of Aleppo, Yohana Ibrahim, said President Bashar al-Assad was “the best man” to lead reform in Syria. (Syrian archbishop says ‘everyone loves’ Assad). The Maronite Patriarch of Lebanon upset many when he backed Assad and warned against regime-change in Syria. The growing religious divide in the Middle East is not new, but it is troubling. It suggests that Assad will not relinquish power, as King Abdullah of Jordan and other regional leaders are urging him to do. It also suggests that Assad’s base support among minorities will not crumble easily. Religion has a way of making martyrs.

A friend writes that his parents cannot find cooking gas in Aleppo. The replacement bottles for the stove are unavailable in the market. Mazoot, or fuel-oil, which is used to heat homes, power taxis and farm equipment is also absent, or available at high prices. Aleppo authorities also warn that extended electric cuts are coming due to lack of power. Syria is facing a cold winter. Older people are standing in lines to get small containers of mazoot filled.  The Syrian pound has fallen to 54.25 to a dollar.

News Round Up

Pro-Syrian regime protesters, carry a giant Syrian flag during a demonstration against the Arab League decision to suspend Syria, in Damascus, Syria, November 13, 2011. Similar pro-government demonstrations were held in Aleppo and Latakia.

DJ Arab League To Send 500 Observers To Syria, 2011-11-14

 CAIRO (AFP)–The Arab League is preparing to send observers to Syria but needs guarantees from Damascus on their mission and the rights of each side, the organization’s chief, Nabil al-Arabi, said Monday.

Foreign Policy

An estimated 70people have been killed mostly in clashes between Syrian security forces and defectors in the southern city of Dera’a, in what has been the bloodiest day since the start of the uprisings. Meanwhile, crowds angered by comments byJordanian King Abdullah urging President Bashar al-Assad to step down stormed the Jordanian embassy in Damascus, bringing down the country’s flag.

The suspension and imposition of sanctions by the Arab League on Syria that is due to take effect on Wednesday is being met with uproar from the Syrian regime and its supporters. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem denounced the move as an “illegal” and “dangerous step” saying that “Syria will not budge and will emerge stronger…and plots against Syria will fail.” Regime supporters attacked the Turkish, Saudi Arabian, and Qatari embassies in protest of the suspension.Foreign governments have had varied responses. Russia condemned the suspension accusing Western nations of inciting the opposition. Angered by the attack on its embassy, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davultoglu asserted, “We will take the most resolute stance against these attacks and we will stand by the Syrian people’s rightful struggle.”The European Union reached an agreement to extend sanctions. King Abdullah of Jordan called for Bashar al-Assad to resign stating, “If Bashar has the interest of his country, he would step down, but he would also create an ability to reach out and start a new phase of Syrian political life. Syria has requested an emergency meeting with the Arab League prior to the suspension and said it will meet with representatives from the opposition on Tuesday.

EU Places New Sanctions on Syria – Wall Street Journal

European Union foreign ministers announced new sanctions on Syria even as they insisted that the situation in the country didn’t merit the same military response they mounted in Libya earlier this year.

Turkey May Review Energy Supplies to Syria, Minister Says, 2011-11-15, By Emre Peker

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) — Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said the government is currently providing power supplies to Syria and may reconsider “all decisions” on the matter if its southern neighbor’s policies don’t change, according to state-run Anatolia news agency…..

Iranian Officials Meet With Syrian Opposition – 2011-11-14, by Richard Spencer in the Telegraph

Iranian officials have held talks with Syrian opposition leaders, in a dramatic sign of the growing isolation of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Several separate opposition sources have told The Daily Telegraph that Iran opened a channel to a “moderate” opposition group about a month ago. Officials met Haytham Manna and other members of a group known as the National Coordinating Body for Democratic Change, or the National Coordi

nating Committee. The group is strongly opposed to foreign intervention in Syria, and is likely to be seen as more acceptable to Iran than the largest group, the Syrian National Council, which has argued for “international protection” for civilians…..

???? ??????? ????? ??? .. ??????? ???? ????? ????? : ???? ??? ?? ???? ?????? Haytham Manna

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Syria’s fragmented opposition
As anti-government forces try to develop a united voice, Al Jazeera looks at the disparate groups within.
Roxanne Horesh Last Modified: 10 Nov 2011 13:42

Syria’s economy is key to Assad’s future
By Liz Sly, Monday, November 14

BEIRUT — The dramatic decision by Arab states to turn against President Bashar al-Assad could further damage Syria’s economy at a time when it is already unraveling, posing perhaps a graver challenge to Assad’s survival than the country’s nearly-eight-month-old popular uprising, analysts say.

The broader loss of regional support represents an important psychological blow to a regime that has long prided itself as a champion of Arab nationalist causes. In one indicator of how far Assad’s fortunes have fallen, Jordan’s King Abdullah II suggested Monday that the Syrian president step down, though he hedged that call, telling the BBC that Assad needed to ensure an orderly transition.

It was, nonetheless, the most explicit rejection yet by an Arab leader of Assad’s rule ahead of an Arab League meeting Wednesday to discuss further measures against Syria, including economic sanctions.

They could have a more profound and immediate effect than the withdrawal of political support, given that Western powers are ruling out military intervention and anti-government demonstrations have seen neither the protest movement nor the Syrian security forces gain a decisive advantage. On Monday, the European Union announced that it would expand its sanctions, to include 18 more individuals associated with the Assad regime and denial of access to the European Investment Bank.

“The economy is a trigger of a lot of other issues on a broader level,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East analyst with the Eurasia Group. The business community has supported Assad so far, he said, “but over a longer period of time, they’re going to reevaluate.”

The extent of the damage is difficult to measure, and Syrian government officials say they don’t have indicators. But they do not play down the gravity of the situation.

Syrian Economy Minister Mohammad Nidal al-Shaar said at a conference last month that the economy is in a “state of emergency,” according to comments quoted by the Damascus-based Syria Report. In a recent interview in Damascus, Adib Mayalah, governor of the Central Bank of Syria, described the situation as “very serious” and ticked off the problems the economy is facing.

“Unemployment is rising, imports are falling, and government income is reduced,” he said. “In areas where there are protests, there is no economic activity — so people aren’t paying tax. Because they aren’t working, they are not repaying their loans — so the banks are in difficulty. And all this is weakening the economy.”

Merchants interviewed recently on the streets of Damascus report a 40 to 50 percent fall in business as consumers hoard cash and cease spending on all but the most essential items. Tourism has skidded to a halt, representing a loss of $2 billion a month to an economy worth $59 billion last year, Mayalah said.

“The whole system has been shrinking — and very fast,” said Rateb Shallah, a prominent Damascus businessman. “The sanctions are squeezing us, and it is definitely affecting us quite a bit.

To what extent the downturn is due to the sanctions isn’t clear, however.

Until now, only the United States, the European Union, Canada and Japan have imposed sanctions on Syria, with relatively limited measures mostly targeting individuals and financial services. The most serious measure, a European embargo on oil purchases imposed in August, goes into effect only on Tuesday because Italy sought to ensure that its existing contracts were honored.

But the experience of the oil embargo illustrates the broader crisis of confidence confronting Syria. European nations, which account for a vast majority of Syrian oil exports, immediately halted their purchases, even though they were not required to do so for three more months. And oil pumped since then has gone unsold, despite Syria’s boasts that it would easily find other customers. Syria has curtailed its oil production by more than 25 percent, Mayalah said.

In a similar fashion, the restrictions on financial services and individuals have had a detrimental effect even on aspects of the economy that aren’t directly connected, by dissuading investors and companies from doing business with Syria. The Central Bank of Syria has not been sanctioned, but many businesses are refusing to engage with it because they fear falling foul of the U.S. prohibition on trade in services with Syria and jeopardizing their interests elsewhere, Mayalah said.

Foreign investment has slowed to a trickle for the same reasons, he said, even though there are no restrictions.

But investors may be equally deterred by Syria’s shaky political future and the escalating violence. The Local Coordination Committees, an opposition group, reported the deaths of 50 people in violence Monday, 28 of them in the southern province of Daraa, where there were unconfirmed reports of major clashes between the Syrian army and defected soldiers. The official Syrian Arab News Agency said two members of the security forces were killed in Daraa.

A trade embargo would be difficult to enforce. Syria can still count on two key neighbors with which it shares long and porous borders: Lebanon, one of only two countries that voted against the Arab League’s resolutions censuring Syria, and Iraq, which abstained.

Yet even trade with Iraq, which has been seeking to boost business ties with Syria as the region tilts against it, has fallen because of the indirect effect of sanctions, said Syria’s deputy economy minister, Khaled Mahmoud Saloutah. The two trading companies that handle most cross-border trade are based in Europe and have been forced to curtail their transactions, reducing the value of Syria’s exports to Iraq by 10 percent, he said.

“The economy is not going to collapse overnight,” Kamel said. “But it is definitely taking Syria down a risky path.”

The newly sanctioned Syrians — other than military and intelligence people — include 3 young members of the Syrian Electronic Army, Rami makhlouf’s lawyer – actually one of his good friends called me today to explain that he had not taken a case for Makhlouf in four years. Another is the head of Berri clan shabbiha in Aleppo. #13 on the list is the most interesting. He is simply named Maj General Nazih. No last name is given. So any one with the name Nazih will have to think twice about a trip to Athens.

The tiny emirate’s intentions remain murky to its neighbors and even allies — some see a Napoleon complex, others an Islamist agenda….

“Do they fill a void? Yes,” said Bassma Koudmani, a Syrian opposition leader who credited the Qataris with a key role in the Arab League’s startling decision Saturday to suspend Syria and isolate a government at the pivot of the region’s relations. “They are filling a space and a role that is not being taken up by other countries.” … American diplomatic cables in 2009, released by WikiLeaks, claim that Qatar has occasionally offered Al Jazeera’s coverage as a bargaining tool. A senior journalist there said while no order was given, the network’s reporting on Syria changed sharply in April.

“We could feel the change in atmosphere,” the journalist said.

Syria: It’s the Economy Stupid
by Armand Hurault, Arab Insurrection Analyst, Transnational Crisis Project

The Syrian economic policies over the past 25 years have underpinned the current uprising. I argue that the economy may well be the Achilles’ heel of Assad’s grip on power…..

Dr Emad Mustafa NBN 11 11 11 02

Syria’s neighbors helping shape its fate LA Times

Syria’s embattled government must face the changing dynamics of the region as old alliances fade and new brokers emerge, most notably Qatar….

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Ash-Sharq al-Awsat
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How Syrian Authorities can Hurt Ex-pats – (in French)

Maidhc Ó Cathail The ‘Humanitarian’ Road to Damascus: Pro-Israel Groups Outline U.S. Options to Assist Syrian Opposition -mForeign Policy Journal

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Arab leaders shouldn’t kill their people?
Posted By Marc Lynch

I am an Alawi from Antioch. I have many relatives in the alawite communities of Turkey including those in Mersin, Tarsus, Iskenderun (Alexandretta), Arsuz and Samandag, many of whom I do not know personally. I also visited Syria and am told I have relatives in Latakia, Homs, Damascus, and Aleppo. I am responding to Ms. Kahf and Mr. Landis’ claims regarding Alawite tribes. The truth is as far as I know, there is no such a thing as an Alawite tribe. This is just simply a reflection of modernization, educational attainment, and the prevalence of an urban lifestyle which weakened the traditional intra-communal links. I am about 50 yrs of age and never heard of “tribes”. Even close family relationships are non-existent. I have many relatives that I do not know and could not recognize even if I saw them on the street. I live in the USA and some of my relatives are scattered in Europe including Norway, France, Holland, Germany, Sweden, and the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. So much for the “tribes”!

Human Rights Watch accuses Syrian government of “crimes against humanity”- The human-rights group, Human Rights Watch, released a 63-page report accusing the Syriangovernment of “crimesagainst humanity.” The report reflects the accounts of 110 victims andwitnesses who claim Syrian forces killed at least 587 civilians since the startof the uprisings in March. It also references the tortureof political prisoners and unarmed civilians, including the elderly and children.

Turkey deputy: weapons being smuggled to Syria The National
Thomas Seibert Nov 11, 2011

ISTANBUL // Many firearms from Turkey have entered Syria, and the Turkish government has stopped alleged arms-smuggling activities at a border post between the two countries, a Turkish opposition deputy said yesterday.

“You see many Turkish-made firearms in Syria,” Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, a deputy from the province of Hatay, which borders Syria, said in a telephone interview. “I don’t know how they got into the country.”

A friend Writes: Friday, November 11, 2011

This is the most inept group of people to govern. The article talks about inability of anyone to pinpoint what the population figure is. One group thinks Syria’s population increases by 670,000 a year. Another thinks its 500,000 and a third believes its 440,000. As for unemployment, the government continues to think its 8% (joke?) while some think its 30%. How can you run a country with such variations? Bashar should have stopped everything in 2000 and did one thing. call the international organizations with expertise in this field and get help in finding out population levels and growth rates in every city and district and make sure each household has an income/asset bracket that qualifies it as poor/middle/wealthy. Only then, subsidies can go to who deserves it and policies can be implemented given actual population trends and where. Instead………………………enough to make want to cry http://www.syriasteps.com/?d=127&id=77652&in_main_page=1

Syria stopped paying oil companies
2011-11-11 15:28:06.43 GMT

LONDON, Nov. 11 (UPI) — Though oil production in Syria is ongoing, sources close to the government said Damascus stopped paying supermajors Royal Dutch Shell and Total. Sources familiar with the Syrian energy sector told the Financial Times that major energy companies working in Syria were getting paid by the government until a few weeks ago. Payments slowed and eventually stopped as European governments put more pressure on Damascus for its crackdown on opposition protesters. “Payments have been delayed and some are outstanding,” said one industry insider who spoke to the Financial Times on condition of anonymity. “My sense is the government has no cash.”

Syria Regime’s Likely Collapse Requires U.S. Planning: Analyst
2011-11-10, By Peter S. Green

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. needs to plan for all contingencies, bring about demise of Assad regime, as long-lasting conflict will become bloodier, more sectarian, spread to neighboring countries, Andrew Tabler, fellow at Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says in testimony to Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Six-point plan needed:
* Form Syria contact group for coordinated pressure on Assad
* Peel away Assad supporters, especially Christians, Sunnis
* Aid opposition to develop peaceful strategy of strikes, boycotts
* Push for international human rights monitors to enter Syria
* Prepare for militarization of conflict – no-fly zone, buffer zones to keep protesters safe from Assad military
* Push for UN Security Council action on sanctions,
potential use of force

Let’s Call Bashar’s Bluff
By Reinoud Leenders
Guest Opinion Piece

Those who say that the Arab League initiative on Syria is already dead and buried, as could have been expected from anything generated by this dysfunctional and toothless ‘talk shop’, can and should be proven wrong. True, nothing tangible was achieved after the Arab League on 2 November committed the Syrian regime to withdrawing its military from restive cities, releasing political prisoners and starting a national dialogue on democratic reforms. Instead the violence escalated, with security forces and tanks besieging and killing protestors across the country including in Homs, now declared a “humanitarian disaster area” by the oppositional Local Coordinating Committees of Syria. Indeed, President Bashar al-Assad’s true intentions to accept the initiative deserve to be looked at with great scepticism as it gains him some time, confronts the already divided opposition with the unattractive option to dialogue with his brutal regime, and allows the latter to heap blame for further violence on terrorists, armed insurgents and even the U.S. With the Syrian uprising going into its eight month, and despite all good intentions of the Arab League, the death toll has reached 3,500, according to the UN Commissioner for Human Rights.

Consequently, talk of international military intervention to stop the regime’s atrocities has resumed, while at least some members of the Arab League appear to consider expelling Syria from the organization for not living up to its commitments. In Western capitals efforts are put into designing yet another wave of sanctions, on top of the ones already in place since May this year. The problem is that such proposed measures are at best only generating a sense of moral satisfaction among Syria’s critics, but they are unlikely to do the job. They won’t stop the bloodshed or remove the regime before the killing may reach the apocalyptic proportions of the early 1980s, or even worse. Respectively, after NATO’s Libya intervention there are no enthusiastic candidates to fly sorties over Hama or Homs while Russia and China are there to kill the idea if there were. Losing Arab League membership, given the organization’s dismal record, although resented, won’t cause the regime to lose much sleep. More sanctions may only have an effect in the long run, indeed when the revolutionary momentum is dead or a protracted insurgency may have made any dreams of a democratic transition for the country all but irrelevant.

So what will Arab league delegates at their scheduled meeting for coming Saturday, 12 November, possibly discuss? If it is going to be business as usual, the Qataris, who called for the meeting, will add their voice to the growing chorus of condemnation for the Syrian regime’s insincerity and brutality. Others may privately echo some of the options above, without addressing their futility. The U.S. and Europe, for their part, will feel vindicated in their position, hammered home at every possible occasion, that the Syrian regime simply has to go. But the Cairo meeting doesn’t have to go into history as yet another spasm of obsolete Arab unity or, for that matter, as another marker of marking the international community’s selective record on the ‘responsibility to protect’. This, however, would require the Arab League, the U.S. and Europe to change gear now.

Let’s call the Syrian regime’s bluff and bring the Arab League initiative to the UN Security Council. Yes, the same Security Council that thus far failed to agree on any initiative or words of significance pertaining to the Syrian crisis thanks mainly to Russian and Chinese obstructionism. Here the Arab League’s chief Nabil al-Arabi should politely but firmly express his organization’s concern that ‘the parties involved unfortunately cannot agree on an effective mechanism to verify compliance’. The US and Europe then could tell the Russians and the Chinese: ‘This is what your friends in Damascus and the Arabs agreed on, so let’s take this seriously, and let’s see what the UN can do to add its authority and assistance to this fully Arab initiative. Besides, haven’t you both also been recently calling on the Syrian government to initiate and expedite serious reforms? In fact, let’s improve and bolster the Arab League initiative, firmly remaining within its spirit, not in the least by explicitly recognizing the right to peaceful demonstrations and include effective (Arab) monitoring mechanisms.’ Nodding to Syrian regime concerns, a cessation of violence would also have to apply to army defectors loosely gathered in the Free Syrian Army, which two days after the Arab League initiative announced it would intensify its attacks in response to relentless regime violence. This package, then, would have to be voted on within the Security Council as the Arab League-endorsed and -led UN answer to the Syrian crisis. To the Syrian regime, always insisting on its ‘exceptionalism’, it will be a clear signal that Syria will be no second Libya, and that it is a partner in a solution, not a pariah on its way out. That, of course, will trouble the opposition. But while Syrian protestors’ calls for international intervention, vaguely defined or understood, have grown louder, time has come to acknowledge that there isn’t going to be much more on offer for them in this respect. Even if this joint Arab League – UN effort will fail, the Syrian regime’s ties with China and Russia to have greatly suffered as a result. That would leave the regime in an even more uncomfortable situation of splendid isolation, only left with Iran.

Reinoud Leenders is assistant professor in International Relations at the University of Amsterdam and co-editor (with Steven Heydemann) of Comparing Authoritarianisms: Reconfiguring Power and Regime Resilience in Syria and Iran, (Forthcoming).

Off the Wall, who has begun writing a key blog on Syria, wrote this about a friend’s comment on Burhan Ghalioun’s Eid speech. It is worth copying in full.

1. OFF THE WALL | November 8, 2011 at 8:00 am

   Dear All,
   Here is my detailed response to Joshua’s Friend’s comments, which i think were very sympathetic to the revolution. I will get probably get some heat for this, but we are not here only to pat each others on the back. We are here to make future, And unlike the dull, predictable monotonic past, the future is full of politics, strategic calculations, and tactical steps. If judged this way, we can see clearer focus on the strategy and understand the tactical positions as long as they don’t compromise the fundamental principles.

   1- The books on the left and the flag on the right is smart.

   True, the flag however got some criticism from some die-hards who wanted him to put the flag of independent. I personally think that the flag was a way to assure the undecided that he is not breaking with some of the constants they have depended on for 5 decades. Smart move. The revolution crowd will forgive that.

   2- He looked me in the eye and spoke to the camera

   Absolutely. Fully agree.

   3- Not reading from a text made him look smart. He was also firm and serious

   Also not diverting into useless casualness and sophistry made him look determined in addition to being smart.

   4- The rape comment was unnecessary, inaccurate and tribal

   Fully agree. I hated it. Many will take offense as well

   5- Kurds are not the only relevant minority he should have talked about. The Alawi minority is by far the most critical. He missed his chance to drive a wedge between Bashar and his sect. He needed to assure the Alawis that this is not about them but about the leadership. He ought to have assured them that he and the SNC will do everything to assure their safety. He should have also talked to the Christians and said that this area was christian before the arrival of Islam and that everything will be done to ensure that they stay and add to the mosaic of Syrian society.

   Yes and no. Yes on long-term conceptual framework and from national unity, human rights, civil rights, and equality points of view. But not necessarily on short-term essential building and chipping at the peripheries of regime’s potential capacity to weaken the revolution. Here is why

   True the Kurds are not the only minority, but they are a minority that has been oppressed by the Baath system. Recent events showed that Kurdish parties are split and that split has prevented the Kurds from joining the revolution in droves. His recent problem with the Kurds had to be overcome, and Burhan’s apology needed to be reinforced. If he (i.e., SNC) manages to build up momentum of Kurds participation, the SNC will deal a big blow to the regime in the northeast, as well as in and around Aleppo (Damascus Kurds are already in the revolution). Supporting the Kurds with such strong language that singled them out is far more efficient (for now) than working on Alawites, or even Christians. For the Alawites, those who are likely to support the revolution are already in its camp and support him (more on that later). The others are not all silent majority and many are clearly against the revolution and will be swayed far less by a single speech than by recognition of the inevitable and essential demise of Assad being in their own interest. Similarly, as for the Christians, it is also very sad sad that some of them have taken themselves out of the immediate political equation and calculation by insisting on several unnecessary litmus tests, knowing before hand that they are in no condition to extract concessions from any side and that insisting on certain things make them look more like protecting privileged position than seeking equality, and some of them even went as far as showing great hostility to the revoluytion (if the posters on Syria Comment are any reflection of that….). Furthermore, and similar to the Alawites, those who support the revolution are already with it and do not need assurances, while those who do not support revolution will not do so from a single speech. This is all tactical for now. The strategic position is equality for all, which was highlighted in the speech as well.

   The primary objective of this speech is to address the SNC’s politically independent base. He needed to do so as facebook, blogs, and even personal conversations with friends in his camp were recently full of warning that he needs to show leadership and stop focusing on the outside and pay attention to the inside and to supporters in the diaspora who are yearning for demonstrable leadership. Solidifying the base will likely attract even much needed financial support from Syrian community (they refuse any other support for now). The primary goal is the continuity and sustainability of the peaceful protest and their expansion into near-allies group, but not necessarily gaining converts at this stage. This was calculated, i believe, and it will most likely provide the results he and his team wanted. Bringing the silent Kurds in, and blocking the wheeling and dealing leadership of some Kurdish Parties from using the regime’s fake concession as means to continue holding the mass of the Kurds outside the revolution.

   that said, he still addressed the reluctant and fearful without naming sects. Had he started naming sects, and addressing each, the speech would have lost its effectiveness as a show of presence and became apologetic and defensive. This is not a position that the SNC can afford now. It does not mean that the fears are not legitimate or are to be discounted.

   6- He stole my line on the black tunnel (not fair).
   No Comment

   7- He should have ended by promising more appearances that would further explain to the Syrian people where he and the SNC stand on constitutional and other important matters.

   Absolutely. One good thing he did though was to say that things can’t be done in matter of days. This is also a response to base camp questions about the pace of things at SNC.

   8- This was his first real breakaway from the pack in an attempt to establish himself as the leader of the opposition.

   It was agreed on by many in the pack, if I know anything about SNC and its difficult birth. Part of the slowness is that they really wanted to have a good representation of the opposition, which made them wait for response (naming reps) from some groups. It would have been nicer to have more support form a couple of internal groups, by my knowledge some are playing dirty .

   9- He did well enough but hardly a slam dunk (i rate it at 6 out of 10).

   For sure not a slam dunk in the sense of getting reluctant Aleppo out to the street, but slam dunk in doing what is expected from him, which is to address the SNC constituents. Look them in the eye, and tell them that he will not be dragged into games by the regime. Dalila was indirectly supportive in the following interview, when he asked how can we have dialog when blood still flows and when 3 Million Syrians can not go inside because of their opinion and not due to crimes they committed. Aref Dalila has indirectly thrown his moral support to the SNC even if not becoming a member of its leadership.

   It is a slam dunk in terms of paradigm shift of political speech in the Arab region. This is the first political speech I heard that did not mention Zionism and the conspiracy of enemies of Syria (or whatever country subject of speech). This is very much despite of Burhan’s own anti-Zionist stance and clear strong commitment to Palestinians. There are priorities, and Syria is now the priority. I am also hoping for speeches and or statement that would address several issues like the economy, social issues, and sustainable development and so on…

   10- While it is easy to criticise the man and his group, they are chipping away at the formidable power that has ruled this country unopposed for 4 decades.

   Far more than they know. Believe me, this revolution is big. Most of the educated outside the country support it, and some of the most brilliant youth are working days and nights for its success. The regime is running against a power it can not understand or imagine. It has played some cunning tricks that gave it back some of the upper hand in matters of security but that is due to the ubiquitous presence of its spies in all strata of society allowing it to register some infiltration as well as through its financial situation and control of communication infrastructure and use of technology which seems to be smarter than what one would have expected. But this will not continue as infiltrators as getting exposed now by folks who are adding one to one. And counter measures that rely on low-tech are being developed that tech will not help with.

   11- As to free elections to determine the outcome, Bashar has to decide whether to roll the dice and drop article 8 in favour of that or not. I stand by my stand that he will not. They will discuss, promise and may be even announce the article’s demise. I still don’t think it will pave the way for a real election.

   Fully agree. I would also add that Bashar will empty any constitutional reform by insisting that terms of office doe not include terms served prior to whatever unconstitutional constitution his committee will come up with.

Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Daniel Glaser has been travelling to Russia, Lebanon and Jordan. Lebanese banks are being asked not to open any accounts in Lebanon to any Syrian even in euro…without Lebanese residency. Syrian troops have been withdrawing from Homs after a bloody confrontation with protesters there who have been demanding regime change and freedom. Over 100 people have been killed in Homs over the last week.

Associate Press November 9, 2011

The National Coordinating Body for Democratic Change (sometimes called the National Coordinating Committee) and other individuals had planned to meet today with the Arab League in Cairo about how to take the process forward for regime change in Syria, but they were prevented by other oppositionists who used violence to stop the meeting taking place. Haytham Manna is the co-ordinator for the executive committee of the National Coordinating Body in Exile, and he was injured during the scuffle that took place. The NCB representatives were also pelted with eggs.

It is of great concern that violence would be used by one opposition group against another. It is widely expected that the violence came from supporters of the Syrian National Council, who have been encouraged by the assertive and sometimes aggressive behaviour of their leadership to see the SNC as being the only viable opposition, and their numerous requests to Governments that the SNC be officially recognised as the official transitional council, however their assertion that they have the overwhelming support of the Syrian people is ill-founded, as the National Coordinating Body attracts broad support from a diverse range of political groups and individuals inside Syria….

Burhan Ghalioun had decried the attack on Haytham Manna and Michel Kilo by members of the Syrian National Council in Cairo. He writes that a “Council that doesn’t respect the freedom of opinion and rights of others does not represent us [Syrians].”

US Officials Say Sanctions Against Syria Effective, 2011-11-09 , By DONNA CASSATA

Washington (AP) — Obama administration officials say Syrian President Bashar Assad’s days are numbered as economic sanctions and Arab League opposition have undermined the regime.

Jeffrey Feltman, an assistant secretary of state, and Luke Bronin, an official with the Treasury Department, told a Senate panel on Wednesday that sanctions by the United States and European Union have squeezed an already troubled Syrian economy. Separately, an increasing number of Arabs want Assad to go because he is destroying Syria….

U.S. Trying to Form Regional ‘Contact Group’ on Syria, November 09, 2011
By David Lerman

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. is working to form a regional “contact group” to help resolve the crisis in Syria, a top State Department official told Congress today.

“We’re running with this idea,” said Jeffrey Feltman, assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian affairs.

Democratic Senator Robert Casey of Pennsylvania, the subcommittee chairman, proposed creating a “Friends of the Syrian People” contact group last month. He said today the group would serve “as a main point of international engagement for the democratic opposition and the Syrian people.”

Feltman said the State Department supports the idea. “We’re talking to others about it,” he said. “We’d like to try to get the Arabs themselves to play a leadership role in this.”

He said the issue may be raised at a meeting of the Arab League on Nov. 12. “Now is the time for the Arab League to really take some action,” he said.

Casey said his panel was exploring whether U.S. sanctions against Syria might be expanded to increase pressure on President Bashar al-Assad to step aside.

Luke Bronin, deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the Treasury Department, said the impact of international sanctions against Syria have been “profound,” mostly because of European sanctions against the Syrian oil industry.

Aussama Mounajed on The World – NPR – Syrian Opposition Urges International Protection

Analysis: Syrian attack on rebel city mocks Arab peace plan
Alistair Lyon,  LONDON | Tue Nov 8, 2011

(Reuters) – Syria’s assault on the recalcitrant city of Homs has shredded an Arab peace plan and exposed the failure of world outrage to force President Bashar al-Assad to halt a violent crackdown on an eight-month popular uprising.

Tanks and snipers have battled to cow protesters and hunt army defectors in Homs, killing more than 100, activists say, since the Arab League said on November 2 that Damascus had accepted a plan to pull the army out of cities and talk to its foes.

“The Arab peace plan died on arrival,” said Murhaf Jouejati, a Syrian-born scholar in Washington. “There has been no let-up in the violence. The Assad regime is in complete defiance mode.”

Arab foreign ministers will review the plan on Saturday, but Syrian opponents of Assad show no surprise at its fate.

“I don’t think anyone in his right mind was expecting Assad to pull his troops out of the streets and allow peaceful protests,” Walid al-Bunni, a lawyer and often-jailed dissident who left Syria for Paris two weeks ago, told Reuters….

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Syria’s behavior after the Arab peace plan was “absolutely unacceptable” and that it “could no longer be trusted.

But, like his British counterpart William Hague who deplored Syria’s policy, he offered no blueprint for action.

The West has urged Assad’s foes to form a united, coherent front, but Chatham House’s Shehadi said this was absurd, given the diversity of opinion lurking beneath years of repression.

“This is not really an opposition, this is the whole of Syrian society,” he said.

Without decisive outside moves or the growth of a more powerful insurgency at home, Assad could survive for years, said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma

“Today, the opposition remains weak and the Syrian military has the upper hand. That could change if the opposition begins to construct a real insurgency, if Turkey goes to war against Syria by supporting some sort of insurgency, or if a foreign intervention is launched, such as happened in Libya,” he said.

“None of these possibilities is on the horizon,” Landis added, arguing that small guerrilla groups might begin to proliferate and harass the Syrian military and state.

“If they gain traction, foreign funding and arms, they could transform into a real insurgency over time.”

Ankara weighs options in Syria stalemate
06 November 2011, Sunday / NOAH BLASER , ?STANBUL – Zaman

In the wake of last week’s failed bid by the Arab League to halt violence in Syria, Turkey now more than ever may be pressured into creating a humanitarian “buffer zone” in Syria, a form of intervention which regional experts say carries unknown consequences. “Some form of intervention in Syria will be considered seriously if events worsen and international action is absent.” Middle East expert Oytun Orhan told Sunday’s Zaman on Friday…..

According to Syria expert Landis, however, such potential escalations are exactly why Ankara must review intervention in Syria against the possibility of further engagement. “Once you go down that road, you’re going to war against Syria, and you’ve got to be prepared to finish the job,” he told Today’s Zaman in an interview on Thursday.

Talk of intervention also raises the question of how long Turkey might be willing to sustain a humanitarian intervention in Syria, and Landis believes that any mission would be up against a regime well prepared for extended conflict. “It is becoming increasingly clear to the West that Assad remains strong on the ground, his military has remained faithful, and he retains an important degree of support from a not inconsiderable segment of the Syrian people,” Landis told Sunday’s Zaman…..

US-Turkish Security Cooperation Deepens – Jamestown Org.

Turkey-US security cooperation has remarkably increased recently. The most visible indication for this policy shift came with Ankara’s decision to host the NATO early warning radars on its soil (EDM, September 20). Later, the United States committed to Turkey’s fight against the PKK, by agreeing to the basing of US unmanned Predator drones at Incirlik base to supply Turkey with actionable intelligence. Moreover, an interagency delegation led by US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Alexander Vershbow, to discuss how to improve the joint struggle against the PKK was another major development (Anadolu Ajansi, October 28).

Furthermore, Washington finally decided to sell three Super Cobra helicopters to Turkey, which Turkey had requested for some time in order to use against the PKK (www.ntvmsnbc.com, October 30). The fact that the sale is unlikely to encounter opposition from the Senate, despite many lawmakers’ discomfort with Turkey’s harsh policy on Israel, has underscored how largely the administration’s views on Turkey is shared in the US policy community.

It was against this background that Turkey’s Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz, while attending the American-Turkish Council’s annual conference in Washington, argued that Turkey and the US are rediscovering each other and are going through a unique period (Anadolu Ajansi, November 2).

Hivos – The Syrian Uprising and the Power of Stories – Newsletter Civil Society in West Asia-Issue 4

A Friend Writes:

Homs has seen killing based on ID cards and sect as has been reported. What makes homs different than lattakia and other places where sunnis and alawis live together is that in homs the sunni population is totally in unison. There are no income differences. The poor and wealthy sunnis of homs are all united.

Another responds:

 I think it is more related to the profit and loss calculations …. in Lattakia the Sunnis are half … in Homs they are 80%, so they feel more powerful in Homs.

A Sunni Homsi friend replied:
Not true. Many in Homs don’t want to unite on rising against the regime. They don’t like the regime, true, but they don’t like the resistance either. The Sunni are now more afraid from the religious thugs than the regime. A person in Homs today is afraid to say no to the thugs roaming the streets.

In Lattakia they are surrounded with HEAVILY armed Alawite populations… You need to be totally delusional if you wanted to overpower the Alawites in Latakia.

Top Syria sheikh says al-Assad wants to go back to being a doctor,  Nov 8, 2011,

Berlin – Syria’s top Sunni Muslim cleric has told a German magazine that the country’s president, Bashar al-Assad, dreams of implementing reforms, stepping down and going back to being an eye doctor.

‘I am convinced that he will introduce reforms gradually and permit fair and free elections with independent parties,’ Sheikh Ahmed Badereddine Hassoun, the grand mufti and most senior Sunni Islam figure in Syria, told Der Spiegel.

‘Then, after a peaceful transition, he may be ready to hang up his hat. He is not president for life,’ he added. ‘The former eye doctor Bashar al-Assad wants to return to his old profession. I could well imagine this. He has several times told me of his dream to be in charge of an eye clinic’.

The magazine said its reporter interviewed the cleric in Arabic last week at his home in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The interview appeared in German in the print version of the magazine which went on sale Monday.

Letter from Europe: NATO’s Noble Words Go for Naught

A friend writes: “got a call from pro guy who is so upset with what Hassoun said. He is fuming over how Hassoun can say Bashar will leave and become eye doctor? who will fight for him if he is going to quit down the line.”

Another friend writes:

I HAVE NO IDEA WHY I BOTHERED TO READ THIS SANA ARTICLE. PERHAPS ITS MY INTEREST IN REAL ESTATE AND TANZEEM. THIS SIMPLE EXAMPLE SHOWS HOW TOTALLY BROKEN THE SYSTEM IS. HOW DO YOU FIX AND REFORM INCOMPTENCE AND FAILURE LIKE THIS? THINK OF HOW MANY YOUNG PEOLPLE HAVE GOTTEN ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED. THIS STORY OF 42,000 IS JUST IN THE LATTAKIA DISTRICT. JUST THINK OF ALEPPO, DAMSCUS, HOMS. THE FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MONUMENTAL. I SEE ZERO CHANCE OF ANY PROGRESS. BIG FAT ZERO. I have talked about the lack of tanzeem for a long time. It has caused real estate prices to stay very high and has made it very hard for new housing units to be supplied. Even a government agency entrusted with supplying youth housing is stuck and cannot do a thing. Cna you imagine the provate sector then? In lattakia, 8000 people signed up . So far only 327 were delivered. 600 are “to be delivered”. The whole task is to house 42,000 people. Back in 2002, 3220 people signed up and were supposed to take delivery in 10 years (next year). in 2004, 2716 more signed up and were also promised delivery by 2014. What is the problem? The government agency “almouassa al aama lil iskan” that is in charge is yet to secure the land for the project. Their first step was to do “istimlak” in 2007. Four years later, everything is frozen. Not only this but the promised prices for those who signed are now higher. Why? Because the “istimlak” that they did in lattakia turned out to cost more than they thought and they therefore had to compensate their original owners by more than thought. given the rising costs, the “mouassase” opted to borrow from the government general budget without interest so that they can open roads, bring electricity and sewer system to the project. Why the delay was the question asked to the project manager? He explained how they took orders before securing the land. When some land was secured through istimlak, they were not able to pay the original owners or find them alternative housing. Will they be able to compensate for all the delays and all the other mistakes? The Answer is that a committee was formed (what else?) to “study” how much each should be paid. http://www.sana.sy/ara/348/2011/11/08/380458.htm

The Financial Times

Money has been streaming out of Syria as fears for the unstable economy lead Syrians to seek a safer place for their assets, according to members of the country’s business community.

Cash is being smuggled over the border to Lebanon “every day, every hour,” said one Syrian businessman, while another claimed Syrian money is being stashed in the grey economy that has long existed between the two countries.

In what many see as an example of the cross-border transfer, Syrian state news reported last month that officials had intercepted over $100,000 worth of Syrian pounds being smuggled across the Lebanese border under the seat of a car.

Samir Seifan, a Dubai-based Syrian economist, estimated Syria’s middle and upper classes had moved between three and five billion dollars out of the country since unrest broke out in March, alarmed by pressures on the currency and the dearth of investment opportunities.

“The easiest way to smuggle money out of Syria is into Lebanon,” said Mr Seifan. “There are established channels.”

Reports of the cash exodus highlight the growing financial pressure on President Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus regime, after nearly eight months of bloody confrontations between anti-government protesters and the regime’s brutal security forces.

The loss of foreign currency earnings from the decimation of the tourism industry and an EU embargo on Syrian oil exports have put pressure on the Syrian pound, which has lost 10 per cent of its value against the dollar on the black market since the start of the unrest.

Capital controls introduced by Damascus in August prevent people from buying more than $2,000 a year in Syria without justification. Though locals say dollars can still be bought, with increasing difficulty and risk on the black market, many people are said to be seeking ways around restrictions on transferring money out of the country.

According to one of the Syrian businessman interviewed by the Financial Times, some people exchange Syrian money brought into Lebanon ‘under the table’. “We’re not Europe,” he said wryly.

As quantities appear to be either small or bypassing formal channels, the money does not show up in financial institutions in Lebanon, Syria’s neighbour, which is a crucial link to the wider world. The banking sector, under the watchful eye of the US Treasury, which this year placed sanctions on a Lebanese bank it alleged was laundering drugs money, has increased its customer accountability requirements, and overall deposits of local currency and dollars have gone up by less than they did over the same time period last year.

Lebanon’s usually freewheeling money changers are reluctant to talk about Syrian money, although the owner of one exchange bureau in Beirut said he was currently processing 400-500,000 Syrian pounds a day (roughly $8-10,000), compared with 100-200,000 ($2-4,000) a week before the crisis.

Another man in the bureau warned: “Its more dangerous to talk about this than politics,” an oblique reference to the Syrian security services’ tentacular reach into Lebanon.

Jihad Yazigi, an economic analyst and editor of the newsletter ‘The Syria Report’, said Syrians had “got used to finding ways to get money out of the country,” after years of tough restrictions on capital movement before limited economic reforms began in 2005. He said one trick was to pay someone inside Syria in Syrian pounds, in exchange for a return payment in a foreign currency in a bank overseas.

Observers of the capital flight say it is a steady flow rather than a panicked rush that could bring the Assad regime down in the short term. The Syrian Central Bank governor recently claimed Damascus had $18bn worth of foreign reserves – about 30 per cent of GDP – to keep the pound stable.

But analysts say the real amount of resources with which Mr Assad’s government has to defend the pound – and keep itself alive economically – is unknown because of a lack of transparent accounting. “The truth is that probably no one knows – not even the regime,” said one diplomat in Damascus. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.

US to Work With Arab Spring’s Islamist Parties
2011-11-08 By BRADLEY KLAPPER, Published November 07, 2011

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton declared Monday that the Obama administration would work with ascendant Islamist parties of the Muslim world, answering one of the central U.S. policy questions resulting from the Arab Spring.

Delivering an address at the National Democratic Institute, Clinton offered a forthright embrace of the democratic changes enveloping North Africa and the Middle East at a time when the euphoria of the successful revolutions from Egypt to Libya is giving way to the hard and unprecedented work of creating stable democracies.

After decades of partnering dictators throughout the region, her message was that the U.S. would approach the new political landscape with an open mind and the understanding that long-term support for democracy trumps any short-term advantages through alliances with authoritarian regimes.

While she reached out to the religious-rooted parties expected to gain power in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere, she said nothing about changing U.S. policies toward Hezbollah and Hamas, which have performed well in Lebanese and Palestinian elections but are considered foreign terrorist organizations by the United States.

“For years, dictators told their people they had to accept the autocrats they knew to avoid the extremists they feared,” Clinton told an audience that included former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. “Too often, we accepted that narrative ourselves.”

After almost a year of protests and crackdowns, armed rebellion and civil war, the Arab world’s upheaval has left a jumbled mosaic of liberals and Islamists, military rulers and loose coalitions of reformers. No country appears unalterably on a path toward democratic governance, and for the people of the region and the United States the stakes of long-term instability are high.

U.S. interests, including the security of oil supplies, military relations and Israel’s defense, have forced the Obama administration to engage in flexible diplomacy, with different messages for different countries.

The one-size-does-not-fit-all approach has meant U.S. support for an imperfect military stewardship over Egypt ahead of elections for a new parliament and president, and largely overlooking ally Bahrain’s rough response to protests earlier this year. Washington helped a military effort that ultimately deposed Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi. It also demanded that leaders in Syria and Yemen leave power, without any real means to make them do so.

“There will be times when not all of our interests align,” Clinton said. “That is just reality.”

Still, she moved to counter an increasingly common criticism from Republicans, including among presidential hopefuls, that the Obama administration’s boisterous support for the Arab Spring has foolishly opened the door to Islamist takeovers of once secular governments. Clinton took a hardline, deriding the suggestion that faithful Muslims cannot thrive in a democracy as “insulting, dangerous and wrong.” She said the United States would work with any individuals and parties willing to uphold fundamental values.

Religious and secular parties alike “must reject violence. They must abide by the rule of law and respect the freedoms of speech, religion, association and assembly. They must respect the rights of women and minorities,” Clinton said. “They must let go of power if defeated at the polls.”

“In other words,” Clinton added, “what parties call themselves is less important to us than what they actually do.”

To underline her point, she welcomed the Islamist party Ennahda’s strong showing in “an open, competitive election” in Tunisia last month, and said America will work with the party’s leaders as they join secular groups in writing a new constitution and governing.

Tunisia, however, holds little strategic value for the U.S. The story is different with Egypt, a bulwark of American influence in the Middle East under Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade rule.

U.S. officials have watched warily in recent months amid souring Egyptian-Israeli relations, violence against minority Copts and renewed popular frustration with a military leadership determined to maintain its grip on the future of the country, if not its governance. Since Mubarak’s February ouster, Clinton has gone out of her way to describe Egypt’s ruling military council as “an institution of stability and continuity,” even as the U.S. has been frustrated by the council’s slow pace of democratic reforms and continuation of the emergency laws that were a mainstay of abuse during the Mubarak era.

She took a tougher approach Monday, saying real power needed to be transferred in Egypt. “If, over time, the most powerful political force in Egypt remains a roomful of unelected officials, they will have planted the seeds for future unrest,” Clinton said. “Egyptians will have missed a historic opportunity.”

By JUDY DEMPSEY
(International Herald Tribune) — BERLIN

People in the region have been encouraged by NATO’s involvement in Libya. Sections of the Syrian opposition have called for some kind of international intervention to stop the killing of protesters by President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces, which continues despite mediation efforts by the Arab League.

Mr. Assad has warned against any intervention. “Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground, you will cause an earthquake that would burn the whole region,” he told The Sunday Telegraph, a British newspaper. Colonel Qaddafi had made similar declarations about any outside intervention. That did not stop the United Nations from giving the green light for the NATO mission.Yet Mr. Rasmussen’s noble words about principles and power are unlikely to be translated into NATO action in Syria or, for that matter, taking on other new missions in the near future.

“The main reason is the profound change taking place in the United States with regard to defense spending and foreign policy  priorities,” said Nora Bensahel, deputy director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, a research group in Washington. The U.S. defense budget will be reduced by more than $450 billion over the next 10 years, amounting to nearly 10 percent of current expenditure, according to the Pentagon. If deeper cuts were made, Dr. Bensahel said, they “could undermine the ability of the U.S. to protect its vital interests worldwide, engage key allies and modernize after a decade of grueling ground wars.” Last year’s defense budget amounted to $553 billion, according to the Pentagon. The United States’ foreign policy shift from Europe to Asia also means that if and when NATO next chooses to intervene on Mr.Rasmussen’s terms, there is no guarantee that Washington will be enthusiastic to play a leading part. The Libyan campaign was the first test of how far the United
States could depend on its European allies to lead a mission.

Summing up the experience, Mr. Rasmussen said the Europeans lacked reconnaissance, intelligence and heavy airlift equipment. The United States filled those gaps. But analysts warn that the United States will not be willing to do so indefinitely, given its financial straits.

Damascus’s upper class clings to its privileged illusions
Jasmine Roman, Nov 7, 2011

As one example, poor people have started to feel the scarcity of heating diesel; they have to register their names at the general distribution company, known as SADCOP, which cannot meet requirements. Yet wealthy people can always pay double the price and a bribe to get their diesel. High fuel prices were one of the core demands that had been submitted to President Bashar Al Assad at the very beginning of the unrest.

“The government is punishing its people and trying to tell them that you either support us entirely or you’ll be smashed and die of hunger,” a government engineer said recently.

It is a complex scene and growing more so. Sanctions will unquestionably damage the economy. But it is the businessman and prominent figures in the regime who are best insulated against the short term, and it will be mainstream low-income Syrians who will be affected first…. poor people have started to feel the scarcity of heating diesel; they have to register their names at the general distribution company, known as SADCOP, which cannot meet requirements. Yet wealthy people can always pay double the price and a bribe to get their diesel. High fuel prices were one of the core demands that had been submitted to President Bashar Al Assad at the very beginning of the unrest…

Two responses to Ghalioun Address

The author of the Maysaloun blog liked the speech. He writes:

Today I watched a man speak to the Syrian people, not at them, for the first time in my life. I like Bourhan Ghalioun and his speech today, on the eve of the Eid holidays, is an important statement and a media coup against the Syrian regime. In the speech he has promised reforms, honoured the martyrs and promised a future Syria in which there will be no torture, nepotism and sectarianism. The Kurds will have their rights restored to them fully, and Syrian citizens will be equal under a fair and just constitution. He also acknowledged the efforts of the Syrian soldiers who have defected, and asked the Syrian army to uphold its oath to protect the country and not a regime. He has also warned that those who shoot people will not be excused if they say they were just following orders.

Ghalioun emphasised that whoever kills his people, steals from the country’s wealth, and that his future is a trial, and that his rule will end. This was a subtle warning to the Assad regime. He also warned that reform and a transition will not be easy, or quick. He has said that the council has many options, and that they have requested that the United Nations send independent observers to Syria. His soft spoken and calm manner is, in all honesty, a soothing balm to the turbulence and anger that many Syrians have been feeling over the past eight months. There was something in his speech that has been missing in discourse about Syria for a long time, hope…

Overall, I found the speech inspiring and it caused my skin to tingle. For the first time, I see a Syrian speaking to Syrians using clear, logical language. There was no rhetoric or tired slogans, and complete empathy with what the country is undergoing. Unlike the insulting and condescending speeches of Bashar al Assad, Ghalioun empathised with the sufferings of the average Syrians, and didn’t insult our intelligence with talk of conspiracies and subversive groups. For the first time in my life, I feel that I could belong to a real country.

Another Friend gave it 6/10 for these reasons

i just watched it for the first time (remember how I have long maintained that we are entering a long dark tunnel?)

1. The books on the left and the flag on the right is smart.
2. He looked me in the eye and spoke to the camera.
3. Not reading from a text made him look smart. He was also firm and serious
4. The rape comment was unnecessary, inaccurate and tribal
5. Kurds are not the only relevant minority he should have talked about. The Alawi minority is by far the most critical. He missed his chance to drive a wedge between Bashar and his sect. He needed to assure the Alawis that this is not about them but about the leadership. He ought to have assured them that he and the SNC will do everything to assure their safety.
6. He should have also talked to the Christians and said that this area was christian before the arrival of Islam and that everything will be done to ensure that they stay and add to the mosaic of Syrian society.
7. He stole my line on the black tunnel (not fair).
8. He should have ended by promising more appearances that would further explain to the Syrian people where he and the SNC stand on constitutional and other important matters. 8- This was his first real breakaway from the pack in an attempt to establish himself as the leader of the opposition.
9. He did well enough but hardly a slam dunk (i rate it at 6 out of 10).
10. While it is easy to criticise the man and his group, they are chipping away at the formidable power that has ruled this country unopposed for 4 decades.
11. As to free elections to determine the outcome, Bashar has to decide whether to roll the dice and drop article 8 in favour of that or not. I stand by my stand that he will not. They will discuss, promise and may be even announce the article’s demise. I still don’t think it will pave the way for a real election.

LA Times [Reg]: Opposition leader tells Syrians: ‘Days of tyranny are numbered’
2011-11-06

REPORTING FROM BEIRUT — The Syrian exile community is abuzz about a videotaped speech addressed to the “Syrian people” on the eve of Eid al-Adha, the Muslim holiday that began Sunday. It is a kind of revolutionary manifesto. The speaker is …

Syria ignores Arab League peace plan CBS News

A friend traveling from Aleppo to Homs yesterday has this to say:

I didn’t see a single tank in all the usual places they are situated in in Idleb villages, rastan, Khan shaikhoon, etc. Not a single one. A friend drove 2 days ago saw them. They were there since earlier this summer. Seems tanks and army were pulled out from most places. Just arrived in Aleppo and watching aljazeera. They are giving the stage for “witness” after witness saying that the regime is putting more tanks and army units in some places! It is clear the SNC, aljazeera, the west decided to create a perception and take it to the next level. Even the checkpoints while entering Homs and Hama were extremely nice this time! They were waving people cheerfully while throwing eid greeting left and right!

Meet Syria’s Opposition by By Randa Slim in FP is excellent. Moon of Alabama below makes some criticisms, but they don’t undercut the main import of Slim’s article, which is very helpful.

Moon of Alabama | November 3, 2011

A piece in Foreign Policy by Randa Slim, “a scholar at the Middle East Institute”, on the Syrian opposition : “a critical mass of Syrians has clearly opted for regime change.”

It does not provide one fact to support that conclusion. Scanning the news from Syria my impression is that the opposition to Bashar Assad, which obviously never achieved critical mass over the last months, is now shrinking.

Indeed just two days ago the Wall Street Journal prominently headlined: Syrian Activists Say Assad Gains Advantage

Last week, massive crowds gathered in several cities, including Damascus, to pledge their loyalty to Mr. Assad. Syria’s state television, broadcasting scenes of crowds chanting “The people want Bashar al-Assad,” said some two million people gathered at the capital’s Ummayad Square last Wednesday. It broadcast fresh scenes of a loyalist demonstration in the southern city of Suweida on Sunday.”At one point, what we call the silent majority came to be aligned with the street protests at least from a humanitarian and moral point of view. But now t hey’ve stepped back again,” Mr. Hussein said.

One can assess the quality of the propaganda messaged by that “scholar at the Middle East Institute” from this passage further down in the piece:Most of the Syrian opposition agrees on a few basic principles: toppling the Assad regime, maintaining the national unity of Syria, and remaining committed to the peaceful nature of the Syrian revolution. But there are sharp disagreements over dialogue with the regime, foreign intervention, and the militarization of the opposition .

So they are committed to a “peaceful” revolution but can not decide whether they want NATO to bomb their country or continue the militant guerrilla war against the regime. And the discussion about that shows their principle commitments to stay “peaceful”?….

Syria Crackdown Aided by U.S.-Europe Spy Gear
By Ben Elgin and Vernon Silver – Nov 3, 2011

Employees of Area SpA, a surveillance company based outside Milan, are crafting a network of probes and computer servers across Syria designed to vacuum up e-mails and Web-browsing sessions, according to a person familiar with the project and documents obtained by Bloomberg News.

As Syria’s crackdown on protests has claimed more than 3,000 lives since March, Italian technicians in telecom offices from Damascus to Aleppo have been busy equipping President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with the power to intercept, scan and catalog virtually every e-mail that flows through the country.

Employees of Area SpA, a surveillance company based outside Milan, are installing the system under the direction of Syrian intelligence agents, who’ve pushed the Italians to finish, saying they urgently need to track people, a person familiar with the project says. The Area employees have flown into Damascus in shifts this year as the violence has escalated, says the person, who has worked on the system for Area. …

Syria and Iran: the great game
Alastair Crooke, guardian, Friday 4 November 2011

Regime change in Syria is a strategic prize that outstrips Libya – which is why Saudi Arabia and the west are playing their part

This summer a senior Saudi official told John Hannah, Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, that from the outset of the upheaval in Syria, the king has believed that regime change would be highly beneficial to Saudi interests: “The king knows that other than the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself, nothing would weaken Iran more than losing Syria.”

This is today’s “great game” – losing Syria. And this is how it is played: set up a hurried transitional council as sole representative of the Syrian people, irrespective of whether it has any real legs inside Syria; feed in armed insurgents from neighbouring states; impose sanctions that will hurt the middle classes; mount a media campaign to denigrate any Syrian efforts at reform; try to instigate divisions within the army and the elite; and ultimately President Assad will fall – so its initiators insist.

Europeans, Americans and certain Gulf states may see the Syria “game” as the logical successor to the supposedly successful Libya game in moulding the Arab awakening towards a western cultural paradigm. In terms of regional politics however, Syria is strategically more valuable, and Iran knows this. Iran has said that it will respond to any external intervention in Syria.

It is already no “game”, as the many killed by both sides attests to. The radical armed elements being used in Syria as auxiliaries to depose Assad run counter to the prospect of any outcome emerging within the western paradigm. These groups may well have a bloody and very undemocratic agenda of their own. I warned of this danger in connection to Afghanistan in the 80s:……

Christian Sci Mn: Turkey’s rising clout leaves Iran fuming on sidelines of Arab Spring
2011-11-02

Once friends, Turkey and Iran are finding that their reactions to the Arab Spring revolutions are driving them apart and renewing an old regional rivalry….

France says clear Assad will not implement peace plan

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Sunday it was clear that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was not going to implement an Arab peace plan and there was “nothing more to expect” from his regime.

“I personally think there is nothing more to expect from this regime and that despite its occasional announcements it will not commit to a programme of reforms,” Juppe told Europe 1 radio.

“Different initiatives have been taken to try to bring Bashar al-Assad to dialogue. You can see what happened to the last one: Bashar al-Assad accepts the Arab League peace plan and the next day he massacres dozens more people in the streets,” he said.

Assad agreed last week to an Arab League peace plan aimed ending a brutal crackdown on opposition protests that the United Nations says has cost more than 3,000 lives since mid-March.

The roadmap called on Assad to withdraw security forces from protest hubs and engage in a national dialogue with his opponents, but more than 50 people have been killed since it was announced.

“I regret very much what is happening and it is not does reflect well on the United Nations,” Juppe said.

A UN Security Council resolution that had raised the prospect of potential measures against Damascus including sanctions was vetoed last month by Russia and China.

“There was a failure by the Security Council,” Juppe said, adding that France would continue to try to work within the UN to take action against Syria.

“France will never engage in a military operation if there is no United Nations mandate, and it is obvious now that there will not be a United Nations mandate,” he said.

“We are talking with the opposition, we are trying to help them get organised,” he said.