Fewer Christians Live in Aleppo than is Commonly Thought
By Ehsani for Syria Comment
February 18, 2012
— No more than 100,000 Christians live in Aleppo – 3.3% of the city’s population, not the 12% commonly stated.

The exact number of religious minorities in Syria is difficult to ascertain. It is often reported that Christians make up somewhere between 9% and 12% of the population. Nearly two years ago, I happened to be visiting the city of Aleppo when a young Syrian Priest argued that the actual number of Syrian Christians is lower than the above consensus estimate. The initial purpose of the meeting at the time was to discuss the plight of Syrian youth.

This note will attempt to discuss the plight of  the Christian population in Aleppo. The findings will point to the fact that this particular minority seems to have suffered from a precipitous drop in its numbers measured as a percentage of the population. Low fertility rate, abysmal economic growth, unfavorable laws, regional dynamics and frightening language from some extremists have combined to deal this minority a remarkable blow when it comes to their numbers at least within the ancient city of Aleppo.

The Data:

My initial foray into this topic started over two years ago during one of my visits to the city. During one of my meetings, a noted Christian Priest remarked how Christian youth were leaving in larger numbers than ever before. He proceeded to argue how the lack of job opportunities, low wages and exuberant housing prices had combined to drive the youth in his congregation to move abroad. His attempts to convince his young men to stay in Syria fell on deaf ears. The result has been a migration of alarming proportions. And this has been going on for years. Pressed to back up his assertions with data, the priest promised to provide me with hard statistics about the size of the Aleppine Christian community on my next trip.

Prior to visiting Syria in January 2012, I decided to call another Church leader who seemed to also have a wide following in the Aleppo Christian community. My goal was simple. I wanted him to use the next two months to find out how many Christians live in the city of Aleppo.

As it turns out, Christian priests and bishops keep tally of their parishioners by keeping track of the number of families under their respective churches. The Assyrian Orthodox Church for example has 1300 families. Approximately every 300 families are assigned to each Priest. This gives the church a reasonable ability to calculate the number of people under its roof. This is made easier by the fact that Christian births and marriages are meticulously recorded by the Church; the registration process allows the community to keep close track of the number of its parishioners.

There are elven Christian denominations in the city of Aleppo. Listed below are the approximate number of families that belong to each of the eleven churches:

Roman (Melkite) Catholic 2,500

Roman (Antiochian) Orthodox 1,000

Armenian Catholic 1,300

Armenian Orthodox 10,000

Syriac Catholic 1,300

Syrian Orthodox 1,300

Maronites 400

Chaldean 400

Latin 400

Arab Anglican 100

Armenian Anglican 300

The total number of Christian families in Aleppo is therefore 19,000.  If one assumes that the average family size is 5 (a generous assumption), the number of Christians in Aleppo is below 100,000. It is of course difficult to accurately define the total number of Aleppo’s population. It is often argued that the number is around 3 million people if you exclude the reef (rural area) and as high as 5 million people when one includes areas like Hayyan, Hreitan, Albab and Mumbej.

If accurate, the 19,000 Christian families of Aleppo means that Christians make up only 3.5% of its 3 million residents.

When I shared the data with most Christians in the city of Aleppo, the response was mixed. Some nodded their heads in agreement. Some seemed surprised and demanded that they look at the numbers in more detail. Not one was able to refute them outright.

Many readers of this note are likely to be surprised by these findings. I urge them to correct my numbers if they are false. I would be grateful for anyone who can find holes in the above percentage.

Aleppo and Damascus are supposed to make up half of the population of Syria. However, Aleppo has hardly any Christians in its reef or countryside. This is not the case in other parts of the country like Wadi Al Nasara (The Valley of Christians) around Homs for example. The Priests I spoke with did not have Christian population statistics for the country as a whole, but insisted that the total number of Christians in Syria probably does not surpass one million. These means that they probably make up between 4% to 5% of the total population rather than the 9% to 12% that is usually cited.

Back to Aleppo:

Wikipedia still states that “Aleppo is home to many eastern Christian congregations and that “more than 250,000 Christians live in the city representing about 12% of the total population.”

The results of my own findings are vastly different from such numbers.

The last known census took place in 1944. During that time, Christians were known to number 112,110. This meant that they represented near 38% of the city’s population of just over 300,000. This statistic was confirmed when the political representatives for the city council were assigned. Of the 12 members to the council, 5 were Christians. This was an official confirmation that they made up nearly 40% of the city’s residents.

This number dropped significantly over the ensuing 20 years culminating with the arrival of Abdul Nassar. Following WW II, many Armenians decided to migrate to Armenia. Soon afterwards and during the early 1950’s, a significant percentage of Christians belonging to mostly lower income groups left for Venezuela and other parts of Latin America. Those in the upper income groups were dealt a severe economic blow upon the arrival of Abdul Nasser. The misguided nationalization drive of the period sent many wealthy families packing. Lebanon, Canada and other Western nations were the likely destination.

By the early 1960’s, the Christian population of Aleppo had dropped to as low as 20%. A Church official present at the meeting suggested that by the time Hafez Assad took over power in 1970, Christians in Aleppo were merely 10% of the city’s population.

Over the next four decades, this number has dropped to as low 3.5%. Wikipedia’s number of 12% is widely off the mark.  It is expected that I will encounter significant challenges to the data I presented. I welcome the input of those who do.

While on topic, it is worth remembering that the Christian existence in this land predates Islam. Christianity was born in the Levant. It was the Roman Empire that transported Christianity from the Levant to the Western part of the Empire. Later on during the new roman empire (Byzantine empire), it was a Damascene Christian Monophysite bishop that informed Khalid Ibn al-Walid that it was possible to breach city walls by attacking a position only lightly defended at night by opposing Byzantine soldiers. The Byzantine-Sassanid wars of 602-628 had exhausted the local populace. The negative treatment of the western Byzantine Empire’s rulers turned the local largely Christian population against their rule. As the Arab conquests reached the gates of Damascus, Christian Syrians were hardly opposed to the new  invaders.

Economics:

Perhaps no single issue has done more harm to Syria than its economic performance over the recent decades. The failure of the country’s experiment with socialism has been painful. So has been the state’s allocation of its water resources under the banner of self-sufficiency. Another abject failure has come from the lack of supply of housing as attempts to regulate the process of “Tanzeem” have taken decades. An explosion in Illegal housing was the inevitable consequence as legal housing unit prices rose beyond the economic means of most Syrians. What started as a noble exercise to help the poor afford basic needs decades ago has morphed into one of the most debilitating liabilities for the treasury. Subsidies may have been affordable when Syria had 8 million people and double the oil output. But they have sucked the government’s coffers dry now that the population has tripled and that oil output has fallen by half.  Last but not least is a debilitated public sector that is terribly inefficient and has monopolized vast sectors of the economy, stifling private initiative and weighing on Syria’s potential growth like a stone.

To be sure, the word “Socialism” was finally dropped from the country’s new constitution. However, Article 13 continues to insist that:

“The national economy shall be based on the development of the public and private economic activities”. The same article also states that “ The state shall guarantee the protection of producers and consumers”. Finally, the constitution now dictates that “Taxes are imposed on an equitable and progressive bases which achieve the principles of equality and social justice”.

The combination of the above set of economic principals is a clear indication that the country’s transformation away from socialism will be slow and uneven.

Many of the readers of this forum are aware that I have been warning about the damaging effects of Syria’s anemic economy for years. It was my interest in the subject that triggered the initial meeting when I wanted to understand the plight of the youth and their preference to leave the country seeking better economic opportunities abroad. According to those present, economic issues were by far the most important factor behind the accelerated immigration trends. In one month alone, 400 Christian families migrated from Aleppo to Lebanon following the disastrous Nationalization policies of Abdul Nasser in the 1960’s.

The Syrian Personal Status Law:

Under Syrian law, a Christian can convert to Islam. It is illegal for a Muslim to convert to Christianity of course. Inter-religious marriages seem to have provided Church leaders and the Christian community in general with a major challenge.

Christian women who decide to marry a Muslim man have to make a critical decision due to the country’s inheritance and estate laws. If she stays Christian rather than convert, she will inherit zero from her husband following his death.  The only way she can inherit is if she converts to Islam. Civil weddings do not exist in Syria.

This is why many Syrian Christian families find it extremely hard to accept inter-religious marriages. It is also why they seem to prefer to live in Christian-only buildings where the chances of young adults interacting with those from a different sect are lower. Christians feel that the civil laws are unfavorable to them.

For the record, many Christians were hopeful that article 3 was going to be dropped from the new constitution. Such expectations were not met when they found out that “The President has to be part of the Muslim faith.”

The plight of Iraq’s Christians:

Syrian Christians have been badly affected by the recent experience of Iraqi Christians. Aleppo has been home to many Iraqis who reside in the city as they await their immigration visas. Most attempt to leave the region for good. Stories of Christian persecution in Iraq have had a profound effect on Syria’s Christians. Many Syrian Christians are convinced that their future in the region may be no brighter than that of their Iraqi coreligionists.

The Religious Satellite Channels:

Nothing seems to send greater chills down the spine of most Syrian Christians than watching extremist religious figures rally their listeners and supporters on satellite television. Adnan Ar’ur may well speak for millions of Syrians. His steady appearances, however, seem to convince Syrian Christians to pack up and leave.

Conclusion:

The percentage of Aleppo’s Christians has been in steady decline since the early 1900’s. That the number has dropped from over 40% as recently as the 1940’s to the current 3.5% of the population of this city is remarkable. This phenomenon is not new. Many have known about these trends and have written about them. The consensus however has been that Christians still make up 9%-12% of Syria’s population. This admittedly unscientific study challenges those assumptions. Instead, it argues that Syrian Christians may have dropped to as low as 4%-6% of the total population and as low as 3.5% in Aleppo. Readers can draw their own conclusions about what implications this has for the country going forward. It may suggest that authoritarian support for President Assad and for “secularism” is not as important as sometimes stated.

Syrian Christians in the Diaspora continue to have a profound and strong attachment to the land. The sentiment amongst the Christians inside the country is unmistakable. They seem resigned to the fact that their numbers are heading south. When I presented my 3.5% number to many of them, many simply nodded their heads. The vast majority of them may not know the exact number but many have indicated to me that it does “feel” to them like 3.5%. Aleppo’s overwhelmingly Sunni countryside has been suffering from a deep economic depression for decades. Many of Syria’s poorest towns are those surrounding Aleppo. During the day, men from these areas descend on the city, looking for work and better opportunity. The population of Aleppo has soared. Indeed, most Aleppines feel like they are living in a city of 5 million people.  Seen from this perspective, the 19,000 families of this ancient land feel that they only make up 1.9% of its larger populace.

The Wide Spread Effects of Economics on All Syrians:

While this note listed a number of factors behind the drop in the percentage of Christians that make up the population of this land, it is the opinion of this writer that poor economic policy lies at the heart of this issue. The negative impact of economic mismanagement has hit all religious communities of Syria. Presented with the chance, most Syrian youth chose to migrate out of the country. The lack of economic upward mobility has meant that most young Syrians have found it difficult to carve out a reasonable economic future for themselves. Yes, Syria, like the rest of the Arab world, could do with less corruption and more democracy and freedom. None of this is likely to matter much in the long run unless the country can design a vibrant industrial policy, find sufficient energy and renewable water resources, improve its outmoded education and health care systems and make legal housing affordable for the vast majority of the populace. Let us remember that this region needs to create nearly 80 million jobs over the next twenty years. Syria alone needs to create close to 300,000 jobs a year. On current trends, this is nearly impossible to accomplish and it is the reason why we are at the beginning of our black tunnel.

NEWS ROUNDS UP

Hundreds and hundreds of anti-government protesters braved scattered gunfire from Syrian soldiers to march through a middle-class neighborhood in Damascus on Saturday, the biggest demonstration witnessed close to the heart of the capital since the country’s uprising started 11 months ago.

Frustrated Protestors Fill Streets In Damascus

Seemingly undeterred by an international outcry, Moscow has worked frantically in recent weeks to preserve its relationship with the increasingly isolated government of Mr. Assad

For Syria, Reliant on Russia for Weapons and Food, Old Bonds Run Deep

A “good number” of unmanned US military and intelligence drones are operating in the skies over Syria, monitoring the Syrian military’s attacks against opposition forces and civilians, NBC News reported, citing unnamed US defense sources.

US drones monitoring events in Syria

 UN Vote on Syria – Foreign Policy

The U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to support a non-binding resolution condemning Syria’s government. The resolution, which passed 137 to 12 with 17 abstentions, calls for the Syrian government to immediately halt attacks on civilians and urges Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to appoint a special envoy for Syria.

Following the vote, Syrian forces appear to have stepped up their bombardment on the city of Homs with what residents are calling the worst shelling since the government began its crackdown on strongholds of the uprising 13 days ago.

Interesting facts on the Syria UN general Assembly vote:
1) Israel voted for, after wanting to sponsor the resolution but was pushed aside by the original 70 sponsors

2) Iraq, Sudan, Oman – considered regime’s friends (w Lebanon & Algeria) dumped the Syrian regime & voted for

3) BRICS countries split (where originally w regime). South Africa, Brazil & India voted for.

4) we discovered that the regime may have friends in countries such as St Vincent, Fiji & Tuvalu!

High-Tech Trickery in Homs?
By Sharmine Narwani – Tue, 2012-02-14 15:15- Al-Akhbar

What was surely meant to be a clever display of media-friendly visuals to illustrate Syrian regime violence in Homs, has instead raised more questions than answers.

US State Department satellite images of the embattled city were posted on Facebook last Friday by US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who complains: “A terrible and tragic development in Syria is the use of heavy weaponry by the Assad regime against residential neighborhoods.”

The “satellite photos,” says Ford, “have captured both the carnage and those causing it — the artillery is clearly there, it is clearly bombing entire neighborhoods…We are intent on exposing the regime’s brutal tactics for the world to see.”

But within 24 hours, the blog Moon of Alabama had taken a hammer to the ambassador’s claims. A detailed examination of satellite imagery by the bloggers revealed numerous discrepancies in Washington’s allegations. Mainly, their investigations point to the fact that Ford’s satellite images were “of guns training within military barracks or well known training areas and not in active deployment.”

Moon of Alabama posts its own satellite images, graphics and diagrams to bolster its argument – and these are well worth a look.

The US envoy’s questionable claims don’t stop at satellite images, however. In his Facebook post, Ford insists: “There is no evidence that the opposition — even those opposition members who have defected from the military — has access to or has employed such heavy weapons. “ By this, he means the “artillery” used “to pound civilian apartment buildings and homes from a distance.”

Then why is there satellite photo evidence of destruction in pro-regime Alawi areas?

Fast-forward to CNN’s very own Jonathan King, who broadcast satellite images of Homs on February 9, the day before the State Department loaded their photos on the web. King’s images of Homs are dated February 5, two days after violence erupted in the city, focusing heavily in the Baba Amr neighborhood where opposition gunmen are allegedly present:

Zooming into one highlighted area of destruction, you can see that the two photos – CNN’s and ours – are an exact match. To the north of the horizontal road is a lot marked by a large tree to its left. South of that same road, buildings are positioned at a distinct diagonal angle. This area is inside Homs’ al-Zahra neighborhood.

King’s presentation of “shelling, fires and damage” to Homs shows destruction of property consistent with the use of heavy weapons: “It’s like a ghost town – with no cars at all, there’s damage in the roads and so much damage on the top of the buildings.”

Zooming in on three different sections of the same Homs neighborhood to show before-and-after images of the destruction, King says: “Now obviously, we’re not there, but this powerful satellite imagery tends to support the accounts from activists that there’s a lot of shelling and fighting going on in the city, and a lot of fires.”

There is only one problem with his account. Most of the alleged fighting, shelling, destruction and killing reported widely in the international media took place in the Baba Amr neighborhood of Homs, southwest of the city, and an anti-regime stronghold.

But all three satellite images shown by King are in al-Zahraneighborhood, a pro-regime area consisting mainly of Alawis, who belong to the same Muslim minority sect as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

That is a stunning revelation. Pro-regime civilians in Homs and other Syrian areas have complained of attacks, kidnappings and killings by armed opposition groups for months now, with little attention received by foreign media…..

Wounded Syrian Refugees Flee Dramatic Escalation
by The Associated Press, February 17, 2012

RAMTHA, Jordan (AP) — Syrian refugees fleeing to Jordan for their lives described a dramatic escalation in violence and a mounting toll of dead and wounded in the southern city of Daraa and the country’s battered central region….

More on the Constitution

Shabbi7 Corrects my error

…The People’s Assembly has long had a requirement of at least 50% laborers and peasants. …A simple Google search further proves my claim. Here is an English translation of the current Syrian constitution, adopted March 13, 1973: http://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/sy00000_.html

Chapter 2

Part 1 Legislative Power

Article 53 [Membership]
The law defines the electoral districts and the number of the members of the People’s Assembly, provided that at least half their number are workers and peasants. The law defines the terms: worker and peasant.

In conclusion, this article was not “added” to the proposed constitution, but rather maintained from the current constitution, and therefore, could not have been, as you hastily claimed, “added in a deal with the Baath Party leadership in order to get article 8 removed.”

What bothers me the most is that, through your claim, you implied that this is a malicious article, when in fact, laborers and peasants are the ones who built up the Syria we love with their blood, sweat, and tears.

from Friend 1

The interior minister will have to approve new parties. Moreover, the budget of any new part is SYP 2 Million. This is $27k. Is this party going to take on a sitting President with unlimited funding? This constitution gets a resounding thumbs down from me. Bashar looked in the mirror and designed a constitution to ensure it fits every inch of his frame. He basically “fassal” the dustour at the tailor.

In 1973, people were asleep and the constitution passed unopposed. For 40 years, the president was not accountable. The party ran amok. No separation of powers. security services above the law with no recourse to the law.

The Majlis al shaab (parliament) is the new baath party. This is a hybrid of article 8. Please read the details and go through the math. As for dropping socialism, supporting the public sector is part of the constitution now and so are progressive taxes. Is this not socialism but in name?

In all honesty, i prefer the 1973 constitution. It was less “istikhfaf bil aqqoul”. It at least told it as it is. This constitution assumes that the people are too stupid to understand that they have no chance of beating bashar who WILL BE the president till 2028 when he is 63. Any constitution that is so heavily designed to make the president win is a silly piece of paper. He chooses the judges that are supposed to judge him (they are there only for 4 years anyway). He can pass laws when the majlis is not in session. He appoints the prime minister and fires him at will. His security services do not answer to the law. This constitution will pass by about 80-90%. Syrian referendums always do.

US army Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff talking about Syria … C-Span

“Syrian army has chemical and biological warfare capabilities … a very significant integrated air defense system … a credible military … there is also huge regional implications …. big players and actors who have vested interest there …. Those who would like to foment a Sunni Shia standoff are all weighing in in Syria … it is the last remaining piece of the puzzle … this is the most important moment for the region and all the players are weighing in”

Guardian – Ian Black:  “France’s humanitarian plan would require a military intervention of the kind for which there appears to be little appetite”….

British officials insisted on Wednesday that it would be impossible to set up a safe zone or corridor without military intervention. That in turn would require a resolution under chapter seven of the UN charter, for which, unlike in Libya last year, there was neither western appetite nor Russian and Chinese acquiescence.

Juppé is to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday. Lavrov said after meeting the Dutch foreign minister, Uri Rosenthal, on Wednesday that Russia would not support any UN resolution “that could legitimise regime change”.

David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy are to discuss the Syrian crisis in Paris on Friday. Humanitarian aid will be on the agenda, diplomats said, but there are no plans to discuss establishing humanitarian corridors or safe zones on any of the country’s borders. Another highly sensitive question is that of possible assistance to the rebels of the Free Syrian Army.

On the diplomatic front, the next big event is the founding meeting of a new Friends of Syria group in Tunisia on 24 February, with efforts focusing on persuading the divided Syrian opposition to present a more united front and send out clearer messages about the post-Assad future.

Britain to send £3m of aid
Published on Friday 17 February 2012 15:54

DAVID Cameron today announced aid worth £3 million for those suffering from the violent crackdown on protests against President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

The Prime Minister said that the money will provide vitally needed medical supplies and food for more than 20,000 people affected by fighting in the city of Homs and elsewhere in the country.

Speaking at a UK-France summit in France, the Prime Minister said that the situation in Syria was “appalling” and that he did not believe the international community was doing everything it could to stop President Assad’s “butchery” of his people.

But he cautioned that the position was not the same as in Libya, where the world came together last year behind a United Nations resolution authorising military action to defend civilians.

Flanked by President Nicolas Sarkozy at a press conference in the Elysee Palace, Mr Cameron said the world had to act “as decisively as it can” against the Syrian regime without a UN resolution.

The position of “Building The Syrian State” current on forming “The Friends of Syria” group

We see that any new split in international community in regards to Syria is not going to be in the interest of the Syrian people in general, nor the interest of the protesters and the opposition. Therefore creating new confrontational axis in the international positions will be very damaging to the political struggle in Syria.

We can therefore say that the increased polarization and disagreement in some of the Arabic and international positions in their position towards the Syrian regime will increase the acute division in the Syrian society, and will further escalate the conflict, and push the country into social conflicts that may reach bloody levels that are difficult to control

Finding a solution to the crisis in Syria requires from our point of view an international consensus that can deliver the equation of the solution that the parties to this conflict inside Syria failed to achieve. Such consensus would help dividing the roles so that certain countries would add pressure on the regime (Russia and its allies) while other countries would add pressure on the opposition (European countries and some non-European ones). Without this consensus it will be difficult to achieve a viable political process that all parties agree to.

Within this context, we believe that the idea of forming an international group called “Friends of Syria” will not serve the idea of international consensus. On the contrary, as we believe it will further increase the international division.

Why Israel Should Intervene in Syria – Huffington Post

…The vast majority of Arabs will judge Israel by its actions, not merely the rhetoric of political entrepreneurs. It is time for Israel to show that its warplanes can do something other than cause Arab suffering — they can relieve it.

From OFF the Wall

One more Jadaliyya Article to read.
Sowing the Seeds of Dissent: Economic Grievances and Syrian Social Contracts Unraveling (Suzanne Saleebi)

Excerpts:
Both Hafez’s and Bashar’s emphasis on the cultivation of “strategic crops” such as wheat and cotton are prime examples of the ways through which the State sought to ensure control and legitimacy. Jessica Barnes stresses the large increase in land area cultivated with cotton during the 1990s, making the crop Syria’s second largest export, only after oil. Excessive usage of irrigation methods on such non-food industrial crops increased the salinity of farmland and thus exacerbated today’s water scarcity crisis in rural areas. At the same time, the regime’s emphasis upon food self-sufficiency as a matter of national security has resulted in an increased usage of irrigation methods for wheat, particularly in the face of decreased rainfall.

An Alawi opposition member explains why so many minorities support the regime
copied from Zenobia post on Off the Wall

Let me share with you something else, many alawite ( including two of my immediate cousins) did participate in Tartous first demonstration, but that was it for them , they are watching Al Dounia now 24/7.

Let me also remind you that most secular parties including Syrian Communist Party and the Syrian National Social Party that have very strong penetrations in the Syrian coast, and their members were subject to extreme violent acts by Assad the father. Why did they disappear?? Worse yet why are they lining up with the regime now?

Let me tell you my friend my personal explanation: Very soon after the uprising started in Darra and when it took everybody by surprise, a feeling of joy touched the heart of every Syrian that change is finally coming, and the face of Syria will change to the better and for good.

But it was only a matter of weeks when the demonstrations were completely controlled by extremist mosque clerks and their followers. I do not care if you agree with me or not but I was there and I was watching very suspiciously what was going on like many others. The regime and during forty years of oppression to any possible secular educated opposition left the field completely open to the only well organized structure which is the mosque and religious institutes.

Their presence was overwhelming. I had many friends from the opposition and we had lengthy discussions about the possible consequences of such leadership but everyone was overexcited with the idea of rebellion and they found it more comfortable to ignore this fact altogether and to keep living in their imaginary dream about the coming bright future…. (read it all)

Syrian government, opposition must listen to people’s demands: ambassador Imad Moustapha – 2012-02-16

“This is the only way for Syria to end this crisis. The Syrian government and Syrian opposition must listen to the people’s demands,” he said, noting “The situation in Syria has not worsened; the majority of the Syrian people strongly support the Syrian government. ”

“The government of Syria is deeply committed to a political solution. Neither the United States, nor Saudi Arabia and Qatar can dictate to the Syrian people what they want. Even the Syrian government is not trying to tell the Syrian people to do what it wants. The Syrian people will decide what they want for Syria through a referendum on the constitution, and the ballot box in the forthcoming elections”

“We have completed drafting a new constitution; it will be one of the most democratic constitutions in the world,” he said, stressing “this can only take place through free elections, only when the Syrian people say their word, then we can move forward, not by listening to opposition groups who carry western passports.”

“The direction of the Syrian government is to conduct free elections, allow total freedom of press, total freedom of political parties, and give women their total rights,” he said, challenging “Saudi Arabia and Qatar to go in this direction.”

“We challenge the United States of America to pressure her allies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to do the same. We challenge the United States of America as well to pressure Israel to give the Palestinians their human rights. This is the real problem Syria is facing,” he said.

Syria and China are friendly countries, the ambassador said, as the Chinese people are deeply concerned about the situation in Syria. “I would like to avail myself of this opportunity to thank the Chinese people for their concern; however, there is no reason to be worried. Concerning the situation in Syria, it is completely different from the way it is presented in the Western media. ”

“The two major cities in Syria, Damascus and Aleppo, which house almost half of the Syria population, lead a very normal life. People go to their work, universities, theaters, music concerts, restaurants and cafes; the same applies to other major Syria cities,” he noted, “However, in one Syrian city, namely Homs, armed terrorist groups are committing atrocious acts of violence. They follow an extreme Islamist ideology, and they are determined to fight against the secular government of Syria.”

On western media’s failure to paint a correct picutre of Syria, he said, “If you listen to the Western media, you will hear that the government forces are killing pro democracy activists.” But he added, “after the arrival of the Arab League observers, they visited every Syrian city, and wrote their reports. The observers are all experts, and do not carry a Syrian nationality. They confirmed that the opposition groups, not the government, perpetrate most of the violence. This is written in their final report and it is published. This is the true situation in Syria as described by a third party witness. Western media never reported the findings of the Arab League observers.”

Nasrallah: Our Enemy Knows How We Avenge Mughniyeh
Thursday, February 16, 2012

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said his party was not involved in recent bombings that took place in India, Georgia, and Thailand earlier this month, while reiterating the party’s intention to avenge the killing of its leader Imad Mughniyeh four years ago.

“It is insulting for Hezbollah to avenge its great leader by killing ordinary Israelis, as fr those who are our target, they know who they are and they are taking measures and I tell them to remain doing so for we shall avenge Imad Mughniyeh in an honorable way,” Nasrallah said.

Nasrallah was speaking during a In a televised speech Thursday evening to commemorate the martyrdom of three of the party’s top leaders, Ragheb Harb, Imad Mughniyeh, and Abbas al-Mousawi, on the hands of Israel. Nasrallah reiterated the continued arming of the resistance and repeated his call to pull out from public use personally owned arms. Commenting on the Arab revolutions, Nasrallah criticized what he termed as “the interference of [Lebanon’s] March 14 and their sending of weapons and bolstering of fighting among the Syrian people,” reminding the rival political group of their objection to Hezbollah’s support of Bahraini protestors and material aid to resistance in Palestine via Egypt.

Nasrallah cautioned against discord in Egypt and pointed fingers at the US and Israel for fomenting it, saying that Israeli officials are living in a state of anxiety due to its dwindling power. He also lamented that “Arab peoples and governments are not occupied with Palestine” while Palestinians, including prisoners on hunger strike, and Bahrainis, are left to its own devices.

In relation to Syria, Nasrallah said the regime has its shortcomings as acknowledged he says by its leadership but that “it has stood in the face of the US-Israeli project and supported resistance.” While the regime did not open up a front in Golan, none of its detractors, Nasrallah argued, has opened such a front or supported the resistance.

Nasrallah criticized the total refusal to engage with dialogue with the Syrian regime and opt for a political solution in Syria by the same people who call for negotiations with Israel and have engaged with it for decades. He leveled similar criticism against those who bar the supply of weapons to Israel while sending weapons to Syria so the “Syrians fight each other.”
Nasrallah wondered why there is “a Western-Israeli-Arab insistence to fight in Syria and topple the regime” suggesting it is cause for political reflection.

Syrian Circassians Continue Efforts to Discuss Repatriation to the North Caucasus

On January 31, representatives of the 100,000 member Syrian Circassian community held a press conference in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria. Three of the visiting Syrians said their goal was to discuss with the government the possible repatriation of Circassians from conflict-ridden Syria to the North Caucasus. The visitors preferred to remain anonymous since they were retired high-ranking government officials in Syria. The head of Kabardino-Balkaria, Arsen Kanokov, received them and promised assistance, though he did not offer any details on their visit. According to the delegation from Syria, the future of the country is becoming increasingly uncertain and people’s lives are habitually endangered. According to their count, over 1,000 of the estimated 100,000 Circassians living in Syria are willing to relocate, although the exact figures are hard to determine because of the mounting chaos in the country. “We came here on behalf of those who want to return [to the North Caucasus] to ask for help,” the delegation said. “We want to settle here” (http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/200277/, February 1).

Anthony Shadid died in Syria today of asthma. He brought out the humanity of the people he wrote about in a way that set him apart.

He was also from Oklahoma City where the Shadid family is well known and respected. He went to the University of Oklahoma for a year and helped establish the Anthony Shadid-St. Elijah Award which is given to our most gifted student of the Middle East each year for travel and study in the region.

Here is his New York Times obit

The Assads did an exemplary job of ensuring that a new generation of leaders was unable to emerge in Syria. It will take years to develop leaders who have national reputations and deep institutional roots in Syrian society. In all likelihood, they will have to fight their way to the top in the nasty Darwinian process now unfolding in Syria. Just as Assad emerged out of the dark inner-sanctums of military cliques and conspiratorial confabs, Syria’s new leader will probably emerge from one of the  militias now taking the fight to the Syrian army on the streets of Homs, Idlib, or another provincial city of Syria. These militias are not united today, but they will become so over time – at least that is the hope. To defeat the Syrian army and Assad regime, they will have to produce a united leadership – one that can coordinate nation-wide military efforts through a centralized command structure. It is logical to assume that Syria’s new leaders will ultimately emerge from the new military leadership which will be responsible for destroying the Assad-built military. Abd al-Aziz Ibn Saud, Reza Pahlavi, and Ataturk are three of the greatest leaders the Middle East has produced. Each commanded a local militia, which he eventually turned into a national army. Will such be the case in tomorrow’s Syria?

Can the Syrian National Council ride the revolutionary tiger to the finish line, establishing itself as Syria’s future government? Will its well-heeled civilian leaders be able to take control of the military effort now being waged in the cities and towns of Syria? Will they be able to deliver the quantities of money and arms that will help cement their relationship and leadership among the fighters on the ground? Only time will tell. I have published a new poll in the upper left corner of Syria Comment asking this question. Weigh in.

This question is all  important today. Western statesmen and Middle Eastern leaders alike are trying to decide whether to supply arms and money to the opposition. This forces them to choose winners. Should they give their aid to the SNC and let this fractious body decide how to distribute it? (It is worth noting that the SNC executive committee just voted Burhan Ghalioun to a further two month leadership term.) Should they turn to Colonel Asaad, the putative leader of the Free Syrian Army, who only a week ago called the SNC leaders “‘traitors?” Should they try to deliver aid directly to the militia leaders within Syria, who seemingly do not take orders from either the SNC or the FSA? Will Saudi Arabia and the US agree on which leaders to back? Or will their differences over secularism versus Islamism prove too hard to overcome?

These are some of the questions that are now bedeviling world leaders in their continuing effort to bring down the Assad regime.

News Round Up follows

Q&A: Nir Rosen on Syria’s armed opposition
Nir Rosen, al-Jazeera, 13 Feb 2012- This is an invaluable article. Read it all.

Journalist who recently spent time with fighters says there is no central leadership to the armed resistance.

This is an invaluable article. Read it all.

The fighters usually belong to small cadres, such as “Abu Muhamad’s Group”, where Abu Muhamad may have access to some money with which he supports his band of fighters. Some groups give their “companies” or “brigades” names – often after “martyrs” or those with “heroic” religious connotations. This creates the false impression in much of the foreign media that there is some national leader, a chain of command, a structure or order of battle and divisions.

The fighters arm themselves and fund themselves as individuals or small groups, not as the “Free Syrian Army”. Nor are they funded directly by any state actor or intelligence agency. Indirectly, however, some Syrian exile religious movements or opposition political figures might be channelling funding from various countries to groups inside Syria…..

….The issue of defectors is a distraction. Armed resistance began long before defections started. While fighters are often portrayed in the media as defectors from the Syrian military, the majority are civilians who have taken up arms. The opposition believes it will have more legitimacy if fighters are dubbed “defectors”, and described collectively as the Free Syrian Army. They are also not armed gangs, as the regime and its supporters describe them. They are much more akin to a popular armed struggle or an insurgency. In fact, many Syrian revolutionaries use the term muqawama, [“resistance”] to describe themselves…..

The Syrian insurgency is not well-armed or well-funded. Fighters purchase their weapons locally on the black market, from arms dealers and smugglers who are profiting from the violence in Syria. I have been with insurgents purchasing weapons and seen how they arrange to do so via smugglers from Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey….

Sunni members of the army are coming under increasing suspicion by the security agencies, and there have been cases of security men killing soldiers for refusing to obey orders to shoot. Hundreds of soldiers and officers have also been arrested. …

On the ground it was clear that by the end of Ramadan (late August), that there was a growing consensus on the part of opposition supporters that only an armed struggle could overthrow the regime…

The regime and its supporters describe the opposition, especially the armed opposition, as Salafis, Jihadists, Muslim Brotherhood supporters, al-Qaeda and terrorists. This is not true, but it’s worth noting that all the fighters I met – in the provinces of Homs, Idlib, Hama, Deraa and the Damascus suburbs – were Sunni Muslims, and most were pious.

They fight for a multitude of reasons: for their friends, for their neighbourhoods, for their villages, for their province, for revenge, for self-defence, for dignity, for their brethren in other parts of the country who are also fighting. They do not read religious literature or listen to sermons. Their views on Islam are consistent with the general attitudes of Syrian Sunni society, which is conservative and religious.

While the resistance is becoming increasingly well-armed, some groups complain they don’t have enough weapons

Because there are many small groups in the armed opposition it is difficult to describe their ideology in general terms. The Salafi and Muslim Brotherhood ideologies are not important in Syria and do not play a significant role in the revolution. But most Syrian Sunnis taking part in the uprising are themselves devout. Many fighters were not religious before the uprising, but now pray and are inspired by Islam, which gives them a creed and a discourse. Many believe they will be martyred and go to paradise if they die. They are not fighting for Islam but they are inspired by it. Some drink alcohol, which is forbidden in Islam, and do not pray. And their brothers in arms do not force them to pray….

Much of northern Syria in ‘open revolt’ CNN

….”What is astounding here is that the countryside in northern Syria, much of it is in open revolt. This is a rebellion of farmers, of carpenters and of high school teachers,” said CNN correspondent Ivan Watson, reporting from the region.

“It does appear that villages and towns in northern Syria have been, basically, out of government control for several months now — except when government forces have tried to conduct deadly incursions into these towns that are temporary at best.”

In southwestern Syria, al-Assad’s forces reportedly stormed the village of Sahm al-Golan searching for military defectors who have joined the rebel army or local militias, according to a member of the opposition in the town who asked to be identified only as Abu Issam out of fear of government reprisal. Syrian forces shelled the town and used tanks when it began its assault Wednesday, forcing many residents to flee toward the Jordanian border, Abu Issam said early Thursday.

The Syrian army reportedly took control of Zabadani, in the Damascus countryside, where soldiers and tanks made a show of force along the streets, according to Mohamed Ali, a member of the opposition Syrian Revolution Coordination Committee…..

Juan Cole writes:

Meanwhile, Turkey and some Gulf Arab states are considering recognizing the Syrian National Council as the legitimate government of Syria. They had been cautious about taking this step in part because the SNC is a deeply divided, ad hoc body. But many feel that, given the Russian and Chinese vetos of a strong UN Security Council resolution, this step is the only unilateral one available to individual nations.

The speaker of the Iraqi parliament, Usamah Nujayfi of Mosul, warned a visiting delegation from the Organization of the Islamic Conference that foreign military intervention in Syria could easily split up the country. When a major Iraqi politician warns you about a civil war, I’d say it you should do yourself a favor and pay attention to him.

SNC Re-Elects Burhan Ghalioun as President
Press Release by the SNC

The Executive Committee of the Syrian National Council (SNC) met in Doha and discussed the latest developments, achievements, obstacles, and challenges facing the SNC. In accordance with its bylaws, the SNC Executive Committee re-elected Burhan Ghalioun as president until April 15, 2012.

The voting process of the SNC Executive Committee demonstrate a commitment to maintaining democratic principles and transparency, and to fulfilling its responsibilities to the very people who have put their trust in the SNC to lead the phase up to the brutal Assad regime’s ouster. This democratic process sends a clear message to the Syrian people that the SNC is honoring his most fundamental commitment.

… The SNC’s president will have a dedicated professional team to facilitate communications between the SNC’s Committees, Bureaus, activists on the ground, relief workers, and support for the Free Syrian Army.

Assassinat d’un “cheikh du pouvoir” à Damas
16 Février 2012 Par Thomas Pierret

Si rares sont les oulémas de Damas qui ont osé critiquer ouvertement la répression menée par le régime baasiste depuis mars 2011 (1), rares sont également ceux qui ont accepté de se prêter au jeu de la propagande officielle en dénonçant le soulèvement comme le fruit d’un complot étranger. Ces “oulémas du pouvoir” sont désormais encore moins nombreux après l’assassinat hier à Damas du cheikh Ahmad Sadiq, prêcheur de la mosquée Anas bin Malik. Sadiq est la seconde personnalité religieuse proche du régime à être assassinée depuis le début de la révolution, le Grand Mufti Ahmad Hassoun ayant déjà perdu son fils Sariya dans des circonstances similaires en octobre dernier. ….

“Syria Blocks Text Messages of Protesters With Dublin-Made Technology”

The Syrian Conundrum
Expert Comment, Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme

As violence in Syria escalates following the failure of UN diplomacy, Dr Claire Spencer explores the dynamics of current international efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.”The failure of UN diplomacy and the upsurge in violence in the Syrian city of Homs show just how different the dynamics of current international efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis are from the Libyan context of early 2011,” Dr Spencer writes.

February 14, 2012
by Radwan Ziadeh

The mass atrocities being committed daily in Syria will not cease without outside intervention. In comparison to the uprisings that have taken place elsewhere throughout the region, the revolution in Syria has been extraordinarily bloody. Meanwhile, a country that occupies a strategic crossroads in the Middle East could release an explosion that reverberates well beyond its borders. Assad’s brutal assault on civilians in Homs and elsewhere has galvanized those dedicated to ousting the regime, inflaming the conflict toward a critical juncture. The revolutions that brought a collective voice to the people of Tunisia and Libya must not be denied to the Syrian people. The international community must intervene in Syria not only to stop the bloodshed, but also because Assad’s continued rule could sway regional dynamics in a disastrous direction….

An old truism used to dominate U.S. policy in the Middle East: either serve U.S. interests by supporting corrupt leaders amenable to U.S. whims, or stay true to the ideals of supporting freedom and democracy for all peoples. The Arab Spring has made this binary irrelevant, and nowhere is this newfound compatibility of ideals and interests more evident than in Syria….

now is the time for the U.S. to help form a coalition of “friends of Syria,” whose support could come from members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, some Arab countries, Turkey, the European Union, the United Nation, and the United States. Such a coalition could lead the way to achieving the following goals: First, this international coalition must call on Assad to step down, while organizing the provision of humanitarian aid to besieged areas. As was done in Kosovo, safe zones liberated by the Free Syrian Army should be designated with proper enforcement. An additional option is to refer Assad to the International Criminal Court. Lastly, this coalition should recognize the Syrian National Council (SNC) as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. With a leadership that includes members of every ethnic and religious group in Syria, the SNC has emphasized transitional justice in a post-Assad Syria, ensuring that Alawites need not fear retribution….

Syrian Refugees Get Help Across the Border
Der Spiegel

Thousands of Syrians are fleeing across the border into Turkey from the intensifying violence in their own country. There, they fill refugee camps and hospitals while worrying about those left behind — and wondering if leaders in Ankara will take their support to the next level.

China Sending Envoy to Syria as It Steps up Diplomatic Effort
By: Ben Blanchard and Michael Martina | Reuters

China does not approve of armed intervention or regime change in Syria, a senior official said on Thursday before embarking on a trip to Syria as China’s first envoy there since it blocked a U.N. resolution calling for Syria’s president to step down….

Zhai, who will travel to Syria on Friday and Saturday, said China believed that “sanctions or the threat of sanctions are not conducive to the appropriate resolution of this issue”.

The Foreign Ministry did not give details of Zhai’s agenda or who he would meet. Last week, Zhai met a Syrian opposition delegation in Beijing.

The trip, a step up in China’s efforts to mediate the crisis, comes days after it warned that Western powers should tread carefully at the United Nations in dealing with Syria, or risk worsening violence…

The People’s Daily said the United States wanted to establish a friendly government in Syria to counter the influence of its “old enemy” in the region, Iran.

“Once Syria sets up a pro-Western regime, Iran will loose important backing,” it said.

Syrians Feel Caught in an External Power Struggle, Less Willing to Confront Their Own
By: Anonymous Contributor | The Christian Science Monitor

….Almost a year into the national rebellion, one that has turned increasingly bloody in most major Syrian communities, activism in Aleppo remains in a nascent stage. Government opponents have yet to win over much of the population, which includes an affluent business community that greatly values the stability that, in the last few years, had been a hallmark of Assad’s rule.

A pair of deadly car bombings here last week, which the government blamed on terrorists, unnerved many and reinforced Assad’s unvarying message: The opposition will plunge Syria into chaos, bloodshed and Iraq-style sectarian slaughter. ….

Syrian opposition struggles to gain traction in Aleppo
LATimes

Foes of President Bashar Assad have yet to win over much of the population, which includes an affluent business community that puts a high value on stability…Almost a year into the national rebellion, one that has turned increasingly bloody in most major Syrian communities, activism in Aleppo remains in a nascent stage. Government opponents have yet to win over much of the population, which includes an affluent business community that greatly values the stability that, in the last few years, had been a hallmark of Assad’s rule.

A pair of deadly car bombings here last week, which the government blamed on terrorists, unnerved many and reinforced Assad’s unvarying message: The opposition will plunge Syria into chaos, bloodshed and Iraq-style sectarian slaughter.

Tribes and the monarchy in Jordan  – Hassan A. Barari – Bitterlemons
Tribal politics is on the rise and the regime has lost the initiative.

… Due to the lack of credible political parties that can mobilize the public, protest movements are organized in Jordan along tribal lines, thereby further deepening tribalism as a feature of political behavior in the country. Now that tribes are alienated from the state, they feel more secure in displaying their tribal identity and affiliation. Paradoxically, identification with tribes is a weapon that has recently been deployed by all, and pays off. Even people accused of corruption have been resorting to their tribes for protection from the law. By and large, tribes protect individuals and the state backs down.

If anything, this outcome is the direct consequence of the state’s failure to reinforce national identity. The rise of tribalism in Jordan recently has been triggered by the weakness of the state. Unfortunately, successive governments have been incapable of imposing the rule of law because many people no longer trust state institutions. In all surveys that have been conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, the trust gap between the state and society is widening alarmingly. This is a dangerous trend, particularly against the backdrop of the “Arab spring” that has brought down four regimes so far.

 The New Syrian Constitution Draft has some important changes which are discussed below in the form of a debate between friends that has been copied from an email discussion.

Article 8 Removed

Article 8 was the most contested article of the 1973 constitution. It states that the Baath Party must be the leader of both society and the state.

The Parliament must include at least 50% workers and farmers, whose defining characteristics will be define.

The quota established for 50% workers and peasants in the parliament was added in a deal with the Baath Party leadership in order to get article 8 removed.

Friend 1 writes:

As I expected, the parliament, or majlis al shaab, is now the new Baath Party. Anyone who wants to run against a sitting president has to get 35 members to agree to write his name. Who can be a member of the majlis? Now the majlis al shaab has become the next God who will decide who can become a president and half by law are workers and farmers… Good stuff.”

Another friends responds:

I am surprised you are not acknowledging and celebrating these two accomplishments, and are instead nitpicking on the mechanism of how a president is nominated…. Every country has specific rules. Look at the electoral college in the US…..”

Friend 1 writes:

So Bashar thinks that no Syrian who has lived outside the country for 10 years prior to putting his name is good enough to be president? Shame. Burhan Ghalioun is out. Anyone who wants to become a President cannot have duel citizenship.

Another friends responds

As for the 10 year living in Syria condition, you need to remember how paranoid we are about foreign intervention. This paranoia is not exactly without any basis. We don’t want a Saad Hariri to be dropped from among the Syrians living in Saudi Arabia with 3 billion dollars to spend on his campaign.

Friend 1 writes:

Oh, so its OK for the Baath to drop the 3 billion? why? Because they are inside and hence more wataniyeen (nationalist)?

A friend Writes:

As for the 10 year living in Syria condition, you need to remember how paranoid we are about foreign intervention. This paranoia is not exactly without any basis. We dont want a Saad Hariri to be dropped from among the Syrians living in Saudi Arabia with 3 billion dollars to spend on his campaign.

Article 3 stays:

It is the article that states the President must be a Muslim.

A friend Writes:

I think there are big items that should be looked at, removing article 8, dropping socialism from the constitution  .. etc. This is a big country with 23 million people from different  ethnic and political background, no draft will ever satisfy all. And when I think of the hard liners who never wanted to give an inch … They had written a constitution to secure their monopoly on power….

The Baath party will be subjected to the same constraints regarding upper limits on spending like any other party.  Members of parliament will be elected by the people, there will be many independents and many members of new parties … 35 is not such an impossible requirement. It just says that you will not have 50 candidates but perhaps 3 or 4.

I read the new constitution twice. Bashar will effectively be the president till 2028.

He is not interested beyond 2021 and he is aware that he might not be able to govern beyond 2014. I think we all should celebrate a mile stone. Those who oppose Bashar should now work through the system to defeat him in 2014.

Aleppo after two car bombs: Ehsani writes on Sunday, “Aleppo back to normal today. People learning to live with this stuff. Becoming like the Lebanese.”

Ayman al-Zawahri addresses Syrias, urging Muslims to fight for their Syrian brothers and urging Syrians to fight for freedom and liberation and to take heart in the support of the Muslim Umma against the cancerous and deeply sectarian regime of the Assads. “Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day, and the butcher (Assad) isn’t deterred and doesn’t stop,” said Zawahri,

al-Qaida’s Plans for Syria: It is worth reading what al-Qaida strategists planned for Syria back in 2006. They believed that Syria would become the battleground after Iraq. Here are a few excerpts from the Quoted Wright article:

Al Qaeda, he writes, also expects the Americans to go after Iran’s principal ally in the region, Syria. The removal of the Assad regime—a longtime goal of jihadis—will allow the country to be infiltrated by Al Qaeda, putting the terrorists within reach, at last, of Israel….

The third stage, “Arising and Standing Up,” will last from 2007 to 2010. Al Qaeda’s focus will be on Syria and Turkey, but it will also begin to directly confront Israel, in order to gain more credibility among the Muslim population.

U.S. officials: Al Qaida behind Syria bombings
By Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers,February 10, 2012

WASHINGTON — The Iraqi branch of al Qaida, seeking to exploit the bloody turmoil in Syria to reassert its potency, carried out two recent bombings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and likely was behind suicide bombings Friday that killed at least 28 people in the largest city, Aleppo, U.S. officials told McClatchy.

The officials cited U.S. intelligence reports on the incidents, which appear to verify Syrian President Bashar Assad’s charges of al Qaida involvement in the 11-month uprising against his rule. The Syrian opposition has claimed that Assad’s regime, which has responded with massive force against the uprising, staged the bombings to discredit the pro-democracy movement calling for his ouster.

The international terrorist network’s presence in Syria also raises the possibility that Islamic extremists will try to hijack the uprising, which would seriously complicate efforts by the United States and its European and Arab partners to force Assad’s regime from power. On Friday, President Barack Obama repeated his call for Assad to step down, accusing his forces of “outrageous bloodshed.”…

The U.S. officials said that AQI and Zawahiri apparently see Syria’s turmoil as an opportunity to reassert themselves after the battering the core group has taken with the death of bin Laden and the killing and capture of key operatives in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

They “are seeing space, seeing a vacuum, and opportunity to bounce back and they are taking advantage of it,” said the first U.S. official.

The U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the bombings came on the orders of Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian extremist who assumed leadership of al Qaida’s Pakistan-based central command after the May 2011 death of Osama bin Laden. They suggest that Zawahiri still wields considerable influence over the network’s affiliates despite the losses the Pakistan-based core group has suffered from missile-firing CIA drones and other intensified U.S. counterterrorism operations.

Jihadist Opportunities in Syria
By Kamran Bokhari | February 14, 2012
Security Weekly, Strafor

In an eight-minute video clip titled “Onward, Lions of Syria” disseminated on the Internet Feb. 12, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri expressed al Qaeda’s support for the popular unrest in Syria. In it, al-Zawahiri urged Muslims in Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan to aid the Syrian rebels battling Damascus. The statement comes just days after a McClatchy report quoted unnamed American intelligence officials as saying that the Iraqi node of the global jihadist network carried out two attacks against Syrian intelligence facilities in Damascus, while Iraqi Deputy Interior Minister Adnan al-Assadi said in a recent interview with AFP that Iraqi jihadists were moving fighters and weapons into neighboring Syria.

Al Qaeda’s long-term goal has been to oust Arab governments to facilitate the return of a transnational caliphate. Its tactics have involved mainly terrorism intended to cause U.S. intervention in the region. Al Qaeda has hoped such interventions would in turn incite popular uprisings that would bring down the Arab regimes, opening the way for the jihadists to eventually take power. But the jihadist network’s efforts have failed and they have remained a marginal player in the Arab world. By addressing Syria, al Qaeda hopes to tap into the past year of Arab unrest, a movement in which it played little to no part….

It is by no means inevitable that jihadists will flourish in Syria and use it as a launching pad to undermine regional security. The Syrian state is still very much holding, and rebel forces remain divided and do not appear capable of serious advances against the government….

Al Qaeda’s Zawahiri calls for war to oust Syria’s Assad
By Elizabeth A. Kennedy, Associated Press / February 12, 2012

In a video message, Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called for Muslims to rally for a war to oust Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. …The regime has long blamed terrorists for the 11-month-old revolt, and Zawahiri’s endorsement creates new difficulties for the US, its Western allies and Arab states trying to figure out a way to help force Assad from power….

After Friday’s bombings in Aleppo, Zuheir al-Atasi, a member of the opposition Syrian National Council, accused the government of staging the attacks. “After the heavy explosions, members of the opposition went to the site to film it. There were ambulances but no corpses. We documented that on tape,” he said in Vienna during a gathering of Syrian opposition groups. “When the Syrian National TV arrived they started to bring out corpses. Once again we witnessed a theater play.”…

A video released yesterday on Youtube shows civilians walking beside a tank in a street of Saqba (eastern suburbs of Damascus) earlier in February. That the civilians are unarmed, and that they stand in the middle of the road while soldiers shelter on the sides lead to one obvious conclusion: they are used as human shields. Since such an advanced tank is extremely well protected (it is impenetrable to RPGs), one of the only ways to destroy it is to detonate a massive roadside bomb (as Syrian insurgents did with some success in Homs, Rastan and Zabadani), but in this case it would kill all the hostages.

Arab League calls for joint mission with U.N. in Syria

BEIRUT — The Arab League called Sunday for the creation of a joint Arab-United Nations peacekeeping mission to halt the escalating violence in Syria, as Syrian government forces sustained their assault against protest strongholds in the city of Homs and elsewhere.

CAIRO: Arabs will end their observer mission to Syria and will ask the UN Security Council to send an international peacekeeping force to end the bloodshed there, according to a draft resolution obtained by Reuters on Sunday.

Arab ministers met in Cairo to revive diplomatic efforts after Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution that called for President Bashar al-Assad to step aside. That resolution was based on an Arab peace plan and had Western backing.

The draft resolution also called for tighter implementation of economic sanctions Arabs previously imposed on Syria, halting diplomatic cooperation with Syria and called for providing aid and political support to the Syrian people.

As part of the Arab efforts, Tunisia said it would host the first meeting on Feb. 24 of a “Friends of Syria” contact group made up of Arab and other states and backed by Western powers.
“How long will we stay as onlookers to what is happening to the brotherly Syrian people, and how much longer will we grant the Syrian regime one period after another so it can commit more massacres against its people?” Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal asked ministers at the start of the League session.

“At our meeting today I call for decisive measures, after the failure of the half-solutions,” he said. “The Arab League should … open all channels of communication with the Syrian opposition and give all forms of support to it.”

The draft proposed scrapping the Arab monitoring mission which had been sent to Syria in late December but which was criticised by Syria’s opposition as ineffective from the outset. It also faced internal dissent and logistical problems.

The Sudanese general leading the observers quit on Sunday. “I won’t work one more time in the framework of the Arab League,” General Mohammed al-Dabi, whose appointment had been criticised because of Sudan’s own rights record, told Reuters. “I performed my job with full integrity and transparency but I won’t work here again as the situation is skewed,” he added.

The draft resolution instead called for “the UN Security Council to send an international peacekeeping force to Syria”.

Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby told the ministers he was proposing a new joint Arab-UN monitoring team to Syria, an idea he has already proposed to the UN secretary-general. That plan has drawn only lukewarm support from diplomats in New York.

Syria forces shell Homs, Saudis push U.N. resolution

Syrian state media: Gunmen assassinate army general in Damascus
By Associated Press, February 11, 6:10 AM

BEIRUT — Gunmen assassinated an army general in Damascus on Saturday in the first killing of a high ranking military officer in the Syrian capital since the uprising against President Bashar Assad’s regime began in March, the state-run news agency said.

SANA said three gunmen opened fire at Brig. Gen. Issa al-Khouli in the morning as he left his home in the Damascus neighborhood of Rukn-Eddine. Al-Khouli was a doctor and the chief of a military hospital in the capital. No one claimed responsibility for the killing.

Ehsani writes: “Egypt stocks largest rise globally in jan 2012. They were up 28 percent. I guess salafists are not so bad for business after all.

Farid Zakaria: Arming the Syrian Opposition is Risky

Journalist accompanied rebels

The American journalist Clarissa Ward has accompanied a group of rebels in an attack on a checkpoint:

In normal life, they are farmers or ordinary workers – many are young and inexperienced military – as well as Fouad. The 23-year-old mechanic. Now he’s fighting on the front line. “You’re surrounded,” says the rebel leader at the checkpoints. “Come out and join us!” The answer: shots.

Determined to take the post, the rebels pull a hand grenade. Suddenly, the advance is stopped abruptly: Fouad has been hit. They desperately try to get him out of the firing line. The assault fails. Now they are fighting for Fouads life. But when they arrived at the hospital, he is dead – just like many other fighters who are there taken to. “The Arab honor is not there anymore,” said a rebel and does Assad responsible for this. “He’s a dog,” complained one woman. “Assad is nothing more than a dog!”

As night falls, the families come to mourn their fathers, sons and brothers. Then, under cover of darkness, they carry the dead to the grave.

click on the player in the article to see the video

Video: Syrian soldiers defect to fight against government

Aleppo bears the brunt in another day of carnage and defiance
By Alastair Beach, Saturday 11 February 2012

At least 28 people were killed when two explosions ripped through state security buildings in Aleppo yesterday, widening Syria’s conflict to a regime stronghold which has so far escaped major unrest.

One of the blasts tore through a street outside the city’s Military Intelligence Directorate. Footage broadcast by state television showed rubble strewn over the road and five corpses lying under blankets to one side of the street.

According to a state TV presenter, who was filmed crying as the footage was beamed back, a number of children playing in a nearby park were killed in the attack. It was not possible to confirm the account.

The second blast hit a police headquarters in another part of the city. State media said at least 175 people were injured in the explosion.

The government blamed the blasts, the first since three similar attacks hit Damascus in December and January, killing dozens, on “terrorists”. Opposition figures, however, accused the Baathist regime of staging the incidents to try to undermine the opposition.

For Iraqis, Aid to Rebels in Syria Repays a Debt
By TIM ARANGO and DURAID ADNAN

FALLUJA, Iraq — Not so long ago, Syrians worked to send weapons and fighters into Iraq to help Sunnis fighting a sectarian conflict; suddenly, it is the other way around.

A belated celebration of the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday on the outskirts of this western Iraqi city on Saturday quickly took on the trappings of a rally for Syria’s rebels. Young boys waved the old green, black and white flag Syria adopted in the 1930s after declaring independence from the French. Others collected money to send aid and weapons to the fighters opposing President Bashar al-Assad’s government across the border.

“I wish I could go there with my gun and fight,” said Sheik Hamid al-Hais, a tribal leader interviewed at his compound in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province.

It is increasingly clear that Syria’s sectarian war is becoming the regional conflict that analysts have long feared. The rush of recent events — including bombings and assassinations in Damascus and Aleppo, and intensifying violence in northern Lebanon coming directly out of the sectarian hostilities in Syria — suggest that the Assad government now also faces antagonists across its borders.

Like Iraq and Afghanistan before it, analysts say, Syria is likely to become the training ground for a new era of international conflict, and jihadists are already signing up. This weekend, Al Qaeda’s ideological leadership and, more troublingly, the more mainstream Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, called for jihadists around the world to fight Mr. Assad’s government.

Nowhere is the cross-border nature of sectarian hostilities more clear than in Iraq’s western desert, where Sunni Arabs are beginning to rally to the cause of the Syrian opposition and, in the process, perhaps strengthen their hand in dealings with an antagonistic Shiite-led national government in Baghdad.

A weapons dealer who operates in Anbar, who said he goes by the alias Ahmed al-Masri, said, “Five months ago I was told that the Syrian brothers are in need of weapons. I started to buy the weapons from the same guys that I previously sold to — the fighters of Anbar and Mosul. I used to bring them from Syria; now it’s the other way around.”

A New Transition Council is to be Established, according to “Syria Politic”. It will call for Jihad

General Mustafa al-Sheikh, the highest ranked military defector who set up a military leadership under the name of the “Higher Military Council,” is part of it. He is trying to push aside Col Asaad of the Free Syrian Army and seems to have gotten the backing of the SNC, or at least some of it.

Other prominent members of this new “Transitional Council” are Shaikh Ibrahim bin Abd al-Aziz al-Z’ubi, the Director General of “The Liberal Syrian Party,” and Ausama Mardini, Director General of “The National Front for Salvation and Change.”

??????? ???? ???? ?? “???? ???????” ???? ??”??????”

13 ?????? 2012 : ??? ? ????? ???????

????? ?????? ?????? ???????

??? “????? ???????” ??? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????? ??????? ?? ???? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ??? ??? “?????? ?????????” ??? ?? ???? ????? ?????? “??????”? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ??? ?????????.

???? ?????? “????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????”? ????? “???? ?????? ???? ???????? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????”? ??? ??? ??????.

???? ?????? ??”????? ???????” ?? ?? “???? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ????????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????????”? ???? ????? “????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ????? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ??????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? (??? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???????)? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????”? ??? ??????.

MEMRI

#3315 – Syrian Opposition Cleric Al-‘Ar’our Appeals to Israel for Help in Treating Wounded Syrians
Safa TV (Kuwait) – February 10, 2012

Syria’s Kurds Could Lose Out in Post-Assad Scenario
By Idris Ahmedi | 13 Feb 2012

Although Syria’s Kurds have a long history of opposing the central government in Damascus, they have so far refrained from widespread, proactive participation in the ongoing rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime. However, if they continue to limit themselves to being mere spectators to the unfolding drama, they may well find themselves deprived of any long-term political gains in a post-Assad Syria.
..
Adding to this fear is the Kurds’ unease with Turkey’s influence over the Syrian National Council, the rebels’ Istanbul-based government-in-exile. As long as the Kurdish issue in Turkey is not resolved and decades-old fears on the part of the Turkish political establishment of a pan-Kurdish drive for independence are not ameliorated, Syria’s Kurds cannot look upon Ankara’s role favorably. Absent unequivocal guarantees from Syria’s Sunni elites, the Kurds in Syria appear to have concluded that it would be irrational to back the council wholeheartedly.

It is possible, however, that the Syrian Kurds are making a strategic miscalculation.

Bahrain’s King Says Assad Should Listen to His People

Israel hedges its bets on Syria
Roxanne Horesh…al-Jazeera

…”[Israel] should look at Syria and see Syria as the Achilles heel of Iran. It is a great opportunity, an enormous opportunity, and this is where the strategy of the Israeli government should be,” former Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy said at the Herzliya conference, the annual confab of Middle East security players and watchers, held in early February…

Trojan horse for the Syrian regime!
By Abdul Rahman al-Rashed – al-Arabiya
Monday, 13 February 2012

… The Arab League was used to prevent the European movement. It was used to conspire against Turkey during the Rabat meeting under the title of the “Arab solution” that aimed at keeping the Turks away. The Turks got angry and said frankly “we will leave you to resolve it”, although they were aware that no country is capable of confronting the Syrian regime except Turkey.

Is Israel being deliberately indecisive on whether or not to support the Syrian opposition?

Save Us from the Liberal Hawks
Syria’s a tragedy. But it’s not our problem.
BY DAVID RIEFF | FEBRUARY 13, 2012

Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of (humanitarian) war. That, at least, is what much of the U.S. policy elite seems to be pushing for these days in Syria. That many of the “permahawks,” like Fouad Ajami, Max Boot, and Elliott Abrams, who championed the George W. Bush administration’s decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein, are now calling for supporting the uprising against Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship should come as no surprise to anyone….

The Real Opposition in Syria is Not the Syrian National Council or Free Syrian Army
By Idaf (who recently left Syria and has been working with opposition activists)
12 February 2012 for Syria Comment

It’s a grave mistake to put all opposition in one group. Some are worse than the regime, some as bad, others are smart, savvy with a plan. Of course you only hear in the news (and sometimes though selective attention as Alex calls it) about those pushed by the different powers (Qatar, France, Saudi, etc.) like the Syrian National Council (SNC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA), because they best fit the agenda of the sensationalist media. Everybody (including Ehsani in his previous article) willingly ignore the large activist networks on the ground and those independent and rational political opposition groups inside who are not proxies for other powers, who have a plan and working for a state after the regime is gone, not for revenge like the opposition you hear about in the media.

Simplifying things by using the “Regime vs. SNC/FSA” shallow lens only helps the regime. Media, policy makers and think tanks should be educated about the richness of the opposition and how they should focus more on the real opposition, not the one shoved by the Aljazeera down the throat of Syrians (SNC) or the FSA myth that perfectly fits the agenda of regime, the Islamists, and the media, all at the same time. As someone who is in touch with all key opposition groups and the activists on the ground, I can tell you that I’m fed up with the simplified, naive views and the manipulative perception management tactics that aim to draw unrealistic picture about the conflict by conveniently framing it simply as idiot proxies and armed elements (SNC/FSA) vs. the brutal mass-murderer autocratic regime (the regime). While both description of the two groups are accurate, but there is much more to the opposition than the SNC and FSA.

The amount of political opportunism, corruption, lack of vision and lack of independence in the SNC is staggering and identical to the Iraqi National Congress. The SNC is becoming less relevant by the day. The FSA is a myth, as there is no coordinated group of militants across the country, only hundreds of small militias that have nothing in common in terms of ideology, arms, political awareness or anything else for that matter. Pushing the “FSA” in the media is just a media phenomenon that fits some agendas and gives false hope to the people inside. It also fits nicely with the regime’s line.

The real opposition is maturing and growing in influence inside and on the ground away from the influence of Qatar, Turkey, Saudi, France or the US. It is a matter of time before the regime gives way. Soon the SNC will be simply remembered as something like one of the many Iraqi opportunistic opposition groups that mushroomed just before the war on Iraq. The FSA myth will be debunked but the militias will continue to exist. The regime maybe able to crush or maneuver its way for a while with a combination of “Souria Allah 7amiha” strikes of luck coupled with idiotic strategic mistakes from the SNC/FSA, but new more realistic, mature, civic and political powers are taking shape on the ground and will be emerging as powerful players soon. Even if the regime survives this round, there will be new rounds between an exhausted regime and new re-envigorated opposition groups. Forget the SNC and the FSA if you want to talk about the future. The simplistic media and analysts can continue to focus on them as they are sensational enough for media consumption for Syrians abroad, for Arabs and for westerners who are entertaining themselves with watching another Syrian TV series. This time it’s not ??? ?????? [“The Door of the Neighborhood,” a famous TV series] featuring macho conflicts of good vs. bad on MBC, but ??? ????? [“The door of Shit,”] perception manipulations on Aljazeera and other media. The reality is happening on the ground inside (and online on closed social media networks) with brave and thoughtful groups of Syrians who are working on interim solutions for the conflict, for long term ones for a sustainable state and for justice rather than revenge.

Syrians who want a solution should focus on channeling their energy towards reducing the impact of the fall of the regime rather than supporting the SNC/FSA or supporting the regime out of fear of the “FSA”, the Islamists or the militants. Everyone should stop simply forcing the Syrians to chose between the Regime or SNC/FSA/Islamists. These are not the only options. Far from it.

They are multiple movements shaping and reshaping on weekly basis. Most activists are learning and maturing with time. They change their views and jump from one group to another according to events and developments. When one’s friend or family gets detained or killed they move from peaceful to supporting violence. When you argue with those supporting violence they change their mind, etc. The movements are in constant change but you can notice the fast organic maturity.

Why don’t you hear about them?

1- The international media is lazy and sloppy and has settled for simplifying things. They like a good vs. bad story and don’t want to lose their audience by explaining the complex reality.
2- The movements themselves are secretive in nature as the only survival tactic.
3- Most of these movements bring together people with different political and ideological points of view. They work on unified broad lines. As such they focus more on 3amal maydani [work on the ground] and not political action.
4- In most of these movements, politics is frowned upon and activism is glorified. Doing politics publicly (even as opposition to the regime) is still viewed as opportunism and “riding the revolution”. It’ a matter of time till some of these groups get enough legitimacy to lead politically. In other words, doing politics is still suicide within the revolution. Only those groups or individuals that have some sort of earlier political legitimacy can work publicly in politics (and very few have survived or remain in the country due to the brutality of the regime).

These are some of the reasons.

By Ehsani for Syria Comment

You’ve shown your true colors, “Ehsani”.

Of course, you conveniently consider and accept the irrational killing
automata of the regime as a fact that we must accept in order to
present a sound analysis, while not affording the protesters such
convenience in their irrational and emotional response as having any
influence on your analysis. That’s the scandalous premise that I can’t
possibly agree with.

Moral and ethical questions aside, this is a flawed logic. Would this
be a policy paper that you’d present to the president?

Ehsani,

You yourself mentioned the activist that asked Ghalioun to step down without properly laying out how the opposition can move forward and what Ghalioun should be doing now. In the same way, you have not just proposed but actually argued in your last article that we should work on 2014 elections, without detailing how this can be realistic. You somehow managed to do what Mr. Al-Abdullah did, even as you correctly explained what he didn’t do.

“….he offers no precise prescription of what to do next.”

This is a sample of the many emails that I received following my last note entitled “Syria’s opposition must find a different way”. This was not surprising.

It is hard to argue with the fact that my suggestion to the opposition to play Ghandi came with a free pass to the Syrian leadership to continue business as usual at least till 2014. To many, this was unrealistic, naïve and outright irrational.

The premise behind my recommendation is perhaps the realization (defeatist?) that the regime will not give in and hand the rein of power unilaterally. There are three reasons for that:

1. The leadership still thinks it can win.
2. The leadership thinks that giving up power is akin to signing its own death sentence.
3. The leadership thinks it is fighting evil.

Why does the leadership think it can still win?

Put simply, the daily morning decision making process may go as follows:

“Does anyone think that foreign military intervention (especially U.S.) is near”?

Answer: A unanimous negative.

Thank you all for coming. Meeting dismissed.

Asking the Syrian President to step down while giving near zero indication that a “credible” military option is on the table is the definition of weak and confused foreign policy by the international community. No, I am not personally advocating foreign intervention here but stating a fact.

Giving up power now is akin to signing your death sentence:

Nearly one year into this crisis, calls for revenge and holding people accountable for murder is natural. However, this also means that the leadership knows that it gains little by unilaterally giving up power. Indeed, giving up power now is like taking your loss upfront. Fighting till the end is seen as a better option as something may still happen to bail you out. This dynamic is all too familiar to those of us in the investment-trading world. Cut your losing position and take your loss now or stick with it and hope for a market turnaround. Human nature invariably chooses the latter.

The leadership is fighting evil:   

Both the regime and its supporters are convinced that the ultimate winners from the opposition will be religious zealots who will take Syria back to the 7^th century. Moreover, the country will become a puppet in the hands of more powerful regional and western countries who will dictate its future geopolitical aspirations. Regardless of the shortcomings of this leadership, its successor is likely to be far worse is the assumption here. While many Syrians dislike discussing sectarian issues, the country is far more sectarian than many want to admit. Religious minorities are far more likely to believe in the above dynamic.

When I called on the opposition to find a different way than arming itself, I did indeed give the leadership a pass till 2014. I did so because I am convinced that the regime goes through the above three-point rationale constantly and that up to this point it comes up with the same conclusions described above.

For the regime to break the impasse and offer their own Ghandi approach, one or all three things have to happen:

1-      The U.S. and the West threaten with a credible and specific timeline on military action to back their “you have to step down” rhetoric.

2-      Damascus sees significant upside potential (lots of carrots) to stepping down now in contrast to carrying on fighting.

3-      A significant core of the regime supporters start to accept the fact that the alternative will indeed be better than the present.

Even the strongest supporters of the regime readily admit that governing this country will be a formidable challenge should the leadership survive and manage to sail out of the eye of the storm.  This regime has been able to survive for nearly half a century against all odds. With every passing day, those betting on it to extend this run need their prayers answered by the almighty.

Let me conclude by quoting one of my dearest friends who wrote to me this morning:

“I pray Syrians are safe, and somehow by a miracle and the grace of god come out of this dark place”

Syria’s Opposition Must Find a Different Way
By Ehsani for Syria Comment
February 10, 2012

As the death toll mounts on the streets in Syria, it is important to remember how we got here. Damascus has decided to reassert control over its restive cities by using the full might of its military. This should not come as a surprise to observers and policy makers. Indeed, the surprise is that the government has taken this long to order its offensive.

In the first three months of this crisis, it is fair to suggest that the opposition was largely peaceful. By the summer of 2011, this was beginning to change. The uprising was morphing into an armed resistance as weapons started to surface on Syrian streets. The defining moment was at the beginning of Ramadan.  Contrary to consensus opinion, the government was not deterred by the start of the Holy month. Hama was stormed and taken back from the opposition to the shock of the region. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia made its first defining public comment on Alarabiya Television Channel immediately following Hama’s fall to the government, after withdrawing its ambassador from Syria.

Since Hama, Syrian opposition members have begun increasingly to  call to demand weapons and a military response to overpower the regime. For the next 6 months, Syrian streets and neighborhoods became armed enough that the mighty Syrian army had to think twice before entering the developing mini enclaves ruled by the opposition within its cities. Not surprisingly, taking up arms suddenly became the accepted modus operandi of the opposition and the uprising. Those cautioning against such strategies were referred to as ignorant or regime supporters.

Young opposition activists who followed the advice to arm and fight the regime are now being left to fend for themselves against the military Goliath of the Syrian Army. As I wrote following my return from the country, many assured me that the armed forces were yet to use more than 20% of their capacity. As I listened to pronouncements by opposition leaders about the necessity to arm, I could not help but wonder what would happen when Damascus would unleash its full  military might. We will now find out.

While Rastan, Homs and Zabadani were becoming hell for its residents, I was dismayed to see that the so-called brains of this revolution were landing in Doha airport. The purpose of the meeting is of course to focus on “the situation on the ground in Syria” and find ways of “helping the rebels”. How infuriating to see men in suites sit in the comfort of Doha hotels instructing the poor men, women and children of the restive neighborhoods of Syria on what they should do next.  The fact is that since the first calls to arm the population, the brain trust of this revolution sent the people of Syria into a kamikaze mission. Did anyone really think that the Syrian army was going to be defeated at the hands of poor young men with Kalashnikovs?

Sadly, following the double veto at the U.N., many capitals have announced that they are willing to further arm the rebels. This is a travesty. The fact is that no amount of arms in the hands of such untrained rebels will come even close to defeating the Syrian army. This insanity must stop. The Syrian National Council and regional powers must come up with a different strategy if they truly care about the Syrian people who are now dying on the streets and in their homes.  Some have argued that had it not been for the veto at the U.N., the Syrian army would not have responded this way over the past 48 hours. This is false. The decision to storm Homs and Zabadani was made before the vote. The central government decided to restore its control over all its cities before a Syrian Benghazi could be established.

At the beginning of this crisis, I was skeptical that the opposition was as armed as the government media claimed. By the end of Ramadan, I had no doubt that armed elements were indeed committing violence against government forces and others. This was confirmed to me by a first-rate reporter who has spent months in the most troubled cities and neighborhoods of Syria. This is not to give a pass to the government. It is the stronger of the two parties, and it must assume most blame for the violence. The leadership has been very consistent in its defiant attitude. In spite of this, many still speculate that the President will soon step down or leave the country. Such false signals have convinced those taking up arms that their strategy is somehow working and that a “win” is around the corner. This is regrettable and dangerous.

Those of us living in the comforts of the West are only too familiar with how politicians in democratic countries compete over their “records”. My wish is to see the Syrian opposition begin to discuss President Assad’s  record on the economy, the public sector, illegal housing, the environment, health care, education, the media, and individual liberties. Instead, we seem to hell bent on steering our country straight into an iceberg with 23 million on board.

The Syrian National Council and many Arab and International policy makers who are now pontificating on Syria’s future were nowhere to be seen in 2007, when the President’s second 7-year term began. We have gone from being in a coma to calling for the downfall of the regime and even the hanging of its leader. This is insanity. The Syrian National Council must call for all rebels and opposition groups to stop arming themselves. Instead, it should declare that the opposition set its sights on 2014, when President Assad’s second presidential term will come to an end.

What is needed is a smart and innovative strategy that helps spare lives but effectively convinces the leadership that the old ways of doing business are over. Popular efforts must be spent in writing a new constitution, a bill of rights to calm minority fears, and an economic plan to reassure the business community and workers alike. The standard of living of most Syrians is appalling, so is the education level and health care system. The opposition must channel their energies towards such topics rather than the senseless calls to arm the rebels in what is clearly a suicide mission.

To be sure, the opposition if anything is likely to go in the opposite direction to what I am suggesting. Just this morning, a young member of the opposition (Mr. Mohammad Al Abdallah) is calling for Mr. Ghalioun to step down accusing him of failing to do anything while Homs residents are being slaughtered. While his anger is understandable, he offers no precise prescription of what to do next. I am not sure how you make a revolution and succeed in toppling this regime peacefully. Perhaps Mr. Abdallah can nominate a Syrian Ghandi for the next phase of this country’s future.

Syria Crisis: Why Homs is the Center of Revolt, February 8, 2012
?  The Syrian city of Homs has been the center of the rebellion against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Marco Werman talks with Syria expert Joshua Landis about why Homs has played such a pivotal role in this conflict.
Audio: Play | Download

Thomas Friedman: “In most of the Arab states awakening today, the borders came first, drawn by foreign powers, and now the people trapped within them are trying to find a shared set of ideas to live by and trust each other with as equal citizens.”

Two explosions in Aleppo near military installation. Twenty-five people were killed and 175 people were wounded in two blasts targeting security bases in Syria’s northern city of Aleppo on Friday, state television quoted the Health Ministry as saying.

Syrian Activist Asks Burhan Ghalioun to resign for not demanding the arming of the Syrian opposition – an indication of the growing pressure within opposition ranks to arm.

Mohammad Al Abdallah, a friend, Syrian political refugee living in Washington,  and frequent commentator on Syria on al-Jazeera, writes on his Facebook:

???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??????:

?. ????? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??????… ????? ???? ???????… ?????? ??? ???? ???? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ????????? ????!!

??? ????? ??? ???? ???? ????: ??? ????? ????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????.

???? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ???. ??? ?? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???????.

???? ???: ?? ????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ????!

??? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???????? ?????

The ‘Arm the FSA’ Bandwagon
By Marc Lynch – Foreign Policy – Thursday, February 9, 2012

people need to think far more carefully about the implications of funneling weapons to the Free Syrian Army before leaping into such a policy. Here are some of the questions that need to be asked.

First, who exactly would be armed? … The Syrian opposition remains fragmented, disorganized, and highly localized. ..

The provision of arms probably won’t be intended to create a protracted, militarized stalemate — but that does seem the most likely outcome. …

Providing arms to a relatively weak opposition will not necessarily close the military gap, then — it might simply push the same gap up to a higher level of militarized conflict. ….

what will we do when the provision of weapons fails to solve the conflict?… Intervene?

what if Assad does fall?… This is not a pretty picture.

Arming the Syrian opposition is not a cheap and effective substitute for military intervention, and it is not a generally harmless way to “do something.” It does not guarantee either the protection of the Syrian people or the end of the Assad regime. It is more likely to produce a protracted stalemate, increased violence, more regional and international meddling, and eventual calls for direct military intervention. It’s probably going to happen whether or not the United States plays a role, though — but at least we should know what we’re getting into.

Syria’s Splintered Opposition: Who Is Running the War Against the Regime?
By Rania Abouzeid Monday, Feb. 06, 2012 – Time

…..It’s unclear how big this rebel force is. Colonel Riad al-As’aad, the head of the FSA, has boasted of as many as 40,000 men — a claim impossible to verify and probably part of a psychological campaign to encourage further defections. General Mustafa al-Sheikh, the highest-ranking breakaway to date, has gone further, telling a British newspaper that President Assad’s army is just weeks away from collapsing. Few would concur.

Perhaps that is because Sheikh and As’aad are rivals. On Sunday, the general announced the formation of the High Syrian Council for the Liberation of Syria, a move that is likely to cement a split within the armed opposition, given that the FSA’s deputy commander Colonel Malik Kurdi told TIME Sheikh’s move was nothing short of “a knife in the back of the revolution.”

“We were surprised by this,” Kurdi said by phone from Turkey. “General Sheikh defected and did not join us. He announced this council — it’s his business. We have nothing to do with it. We don’t know anything about it or its aims, but we question its formation at this point. We think it’s an attempt to split the armed opposition.”

It is debatable whether the FSA’s leadership in Turkey serves anything more than a p.r. function — a source for media and Western diplomats — without real command of FSA fighters on the ground. Now a separate and rival authority under General Sheikh is likely to confuse things in an already disunited opposition front, even as Assad escalates his attacks and takes an ever higher daily death toll.

Bassma Kodmani, spokeswoman for the Syrian National Council (SNC), the de facto political opposition group, says the SNC was also wary of Sheikh’s announcement. “It’s not something that we fully know what were the issues behind it,” Kodmani tells TIME. “We realize there are some tensions related to the timing of the event. We are working to ensure that the military command will remain united.”

Foreign P0licy

The Arab League said it intends to resume its observer mission in Syria but requested U.N.assistance. U.S. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said the United States has been debating humanitarian assistance for some time, but noted that all options are open stating, “We definitely don’t want to militarize the situation. If it’s avoidable we are going to avoid it. But increasingly it looks like it may not be avoidable.” According to U.S. military officials, the Pentagon’s Central Command has begun a review of U.S. military capabilities.Others are discussing arming the opposition Free Syria Army. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is traveling to the U.S. for talks on Syria and said he would like to hold an international meeting to coordinate efforts for humanitarian aid and agree on a strategy to end violence.

Thomas Friedman’s argument for a US role in Syria:  “Iraq shows that it is not impossible… to find a shared set of ideas to live by and trust each other with as equal citizens….”

“Iraq also shows how hard it is to do that — the Sunni-Shiite divide still cuts very deep — but …”…”We often forget how unusual America is as a self-governing, pluralistic society. We elected a black man whose grandfather was a Muslim as president at a time of deep economic crisis, and now we’re considering replacing him with a Mormon. Who in the world does that? Not many, especially in the Middle East. Yet, clearly, many people there now deeply long to be citizens — not all, but many. If that region has any hope of a stable future, we need to bet on them.”

Nada Bakri in the NYTimes

As Damascus braces for what some fear might prove a reckoning, residents lament a life that has become at times unbearable.

A 34-year-old teacher from the Alawite sect said her life had changed in ways she never imagined. Six months ago, she started covering her head like Sunni Muslim women, hoping not to stand out. Her husband, an officer in the Syrian Army, rarely leaves his base to come home. She said she and their two sons had not seen him in months.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, “The eclipse of the Shia crescent” Lebanon Now

A few weeks ago, her landlord, a Sunni, asked her to leave the house because his newly married son wanted to move in. “Sunnis have begun to feel empowered,” the teacher said. “A year ago, no one would have expected this to happen.” She had already made plans to return to her village.

The teacher said that most Alawites in the Damascus neighborhoods of al-Hajar al-Aswad and Qadam had left or were planning to go to their native villages. So are families in towns on the outskirts of the capital, including Douma, Saqba and Arbeen, where heavy and persistent clashes have occurred between state security forces and rebels for the past two weeks.

“Who lost a son or a brother wants revenge, and he will take vengeance from Alawites before anyone else because most Alawites are commanders of security forces,” the teacher said. “I am sorry to say this, but I think the Assad regime is using us in the crackdown, and when it will falls, they will run away, and we will pay the heavy price.”

Anthony Shadid on Libya: ….there are 250 separate militias in the coastal city of Misurata, the scene of perhaps the fiercest battle of the revolution. In recent months those militias have become the most loathed in the country.

“This is destruction!” complained Nouri Ftais, a 51-year-old commander, who offered a rare, unheeded voice of reason. “We’re destroying Libya with our bare hands.”.. The country that witnessed the Arab world’s most sweeping revolution is foundering. So is its capital, where a semblance of normality has returned after the chaotic days of the fall of Tripoli last August. But no one would consider a city ordinary where militiamen tortured to death an urbane former diplomat two weeks ago, where hundreds of refugees deemed loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi waited hopelessly in a camp and where a government official acknowledged that “freedom is a problem.” Much about the scene on Wednesday was lamentable, perhaps because the discord was so commonplace.

 The European Union is making contingency plans in case it needs to evacuate EU citizens from Syria and is mulling a ban on flights into and out of the country, senior officials said yesterday. The suspension of commercial flights is among a raft of …

THE CASE FOR ORGANIZING A MILITARY FORCE FROM THE MUSLIM WORLD TO INTERVENE IN SYRIA
Soner Cagaptay, New Republic, February 9, 2012

The ongoing crisis in Syria is that rare international issue that should unite both humanitarians and foreign policy realists. Intervening to terminate the Assad regime is the only way to end the Middle East’s bloodiest humanitarian tragedy in decades. It’s also the most effective way to get rid of the most anti-American regime in the Levant, a strategic area for U.S. interests. That’s not to say that intervention will be simple. Ill-conceived action could escalate the conflict. That’s why the intervention in Syria needs to be velveteen in nature, soft to the touch and woven patiently over time.

The U.S.-led intervention in Bosnia in the 1990s is instructive. During the Bosnian War, the United Nations Security Council designated areas liberated by Bosnian civilian-defense units as “safe havens.” The Bosnian defense units faced the risk of being outgunned by the superior Yugoslav National Army (J.N.A.) and Serb paramilitaries, so the U.N. then mandated peacekeepers to protect these areas. There was one problem though: In 1995, J.N.A. forces overran the “safe haven” of Srebrenica, and peacekeepers with a limited U.N. mandate could only watch as thousands of Bosnians were executed.

As in Bosnia, forces composed of civilian-defense units are liberating areas of Syria while continuing to be outgunned by the superior Syrian Army. The good news offered by the Bosnian precedent: Give the Syrians well-protected safe havens, and they will likely finish off Assad. But Bosnia also offers another lesson — don’t send in peacekeepers with a limited U.N. mandate. They can’t stop the conflict. Intervention needs to be soft in nature and smart, involving not ground troops, but air power to protect the designated safe havens.

Still, a question looms: With little American appetite for overseas warfare, whose air force would protect the safe havens? In fact, Washington’s reluctance to lead an operation may prove a blessing, leaving space for Turkey to take the reins….Ankara views taking part in any U.S.-led intervention in a Muslim country to be against Turkey’s new role in the Middle East.
But Turkey would support an air-based intervention to protect U.N. designated safe havens — as long as the mission is led by a “regional force,” composed of both Turkish and Arab militaries.

biased from baghdad: iraqi observers in syria tell protestors to give up

The Iraqi government recently sent 33 locals to be part of the Arab League’s monitoring mission in Syria. But just like the mission itself, the Iraqi participants have been considered controversial – and even biased toward Syria’s leaders. by Khaled Waleed in Baghdad (02.02.2012) more

relationship issues: feud between turkey and iraq is all syria’s fault

Over the past weeks, the warm relationship between Iraq and Turkey has soured, with the two PMs in a war of words about Baghdad’s political crisis. However the real reasons may have more to do with Syria. And Iran. by Hoshnag Ose in Brussels (09.02.2012) more

al-qaeda in iraq: group has new offices, new deadly plans for dissent

Extremist militia, al-Qaeda in Iraq, is moving headquarters and has a new plan to increase sectarian conflict. A source familiar with the group says they will recruit members and gain locals’ confidence while sowing seeds of deadly dissent. by Khaled Waleed in Baghdad (09.02.2012) more

niqash interview with minister of migration: eu treats iraqi deportees ‘inhumanely’

Over a million Iraqis live in Syria and if the situation there worsens, they may start returning home. Iraq’s Minister of Displacement and Migration tells NIQASH how he plans to deal with them, and other Iraqi refugees and deportees from the EU. by Khaled Waleed in Baghdad (09.02.2012) more

A cousin of Syria’s President Bashar Assad has won a legal bid to unfreeze euro3 million ($4 million) held in bank accounts in Switzerland.

Switzerland’s top criminal court has ruled in favor of Hafez Makhlouf’s appeal against the Swiss government’s decision to block the accounts.

The 40-year-old army colonel was added to a Swiss government sanctions list in September in response to Syria’s brutal crackdown on opposition protesters.
The Swiss court last month agreed with Makhlouf’s argument that the money was designated for a property purchase in Syria made in April 2011, five months before the funds were frozen.

The verdict was first reported Thursday by Swiss news website 20min.ch and is available online.

DISCOURSES OF A REVOLUTION: FRAMING THE SYRIAN UPRISING
Emma Lundgren-Jörum ORTADO?U ETÜTLER?, Cilt 3 Say? 2 Ocak 2012

Abstract
This article compares how the Syrian uprising was framed by the Syrian regime as well as some of the major oppositional organizations between March and November 2011. As expected in conflict the versions told differ. The regime stresses that Syria is the victim of a foreign conspiracy where armed terrorists are killing civilians and security personnel alike. The opposition, on the other hand, argues that the uprising is a domestic affair, initiated by ordinary people. The article further seeks to give an overview of the regime’s and the opposition’s views of the post-uprising Syria and their respective ideas of the best way to get there. The article argues that the Syrian opposition has, by and large, maintained a unified position. The major division is not, as could perhaps be expected, between the internal and the external opposition but between the “older” internal opposition and the rest. The article also argues that minority questions are not substantially dealt with by either the opposition or the regime. Both sides focus on the Kurds but effectively avoid other minorities.
Emma Lundgren-Jörum –

Aleppo, Syria, Long Loyal to the Government, Appears to Waver
Los Angeles Times

The nation’s second-largest city looks increasingly divided over the uprising. Major unrest there would be a significant blow to President Bashar Assad…. More and more, however, it appears those who have not yet taken a side are less sure what to think.

“We talk to those supporting the revolutionaries and what they are saying sounds right, and we talk to those who support the regime and what they are saying sounds right,” said a college English major in her early 20s. “We don’t know what’s actually right.”

“The Ant-Assad Axis of Resistance.”
By Nick Heras in the Lebanese news agency Siyese

….Who will be the guiding civilian authority in Syria? What will be done to incorporate disaffected (i.e. Alawite) communities in the country? What military and police authority will keep the peace int he country? How will the Syrian economy be revitalized and improved? What is to be done with the Kurds of Syria (10% or more of the Syrian population) who have long-running ambitions of having at least the autonomy of their Iraqi Kurdish neighbors? These questions are just as essential to any post-Assad future as the matter of President Bashar Al-Assad stepping down from power. As of the moment, they remain unanswered by the Axis of Insistence.

A key factor in the Arab Spring is demographics, as a glance at the population pyramids below suggests.

A common denominator of the five is an aging ruling party unable to control a population bulge of young adults afflicted by high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, an absence of political freedoms and generally poor living conditions.