A friend from Aleppo wrote me over the weekend that he believes that the northern suburbs of Aleppo are falling out of government control. In particular, the poorer towns of Azaz, Hreitan, and Anadan, which are on the road to Turkey, have been taken over by opposition groups. On February 27, a number of local residents were killed by the military, setting off protests and violent confrontations with local security. He does not believe the regime’s end is imminent because the armed groups are not centrally organized. All the same, the migration of neighborhoods out of government control is unceasing. Although the government has retaken Homs, it is losing Aleppo and the broader North, an area that has long been fertile ground for Islamist currents.

He writes:

I just had a long conversation with friends and family in Aleppo. It may not be long before the city joins the revolution, I believe. My father could not travel by car to the border with Turkey. No driver dares take the roads north any longer. The drive to Turkey is only a half-hour. The working-class neighborhoods of Azaz, Hreitan and Anadan have largely fallen out of government control. Friends who own factories in the industrial regions outside of Aleppo complain that for a week now they have been unable to visit them. Lack of security, frequent anti-regime demonstrations and clashes between militants and the army make the excursion impossible.

I am a partner in one Aleppo factory that was attacked Sunday night (March 4). The attackers beat up the two night security guards and bound them. They then lifted the whole safe box and carried it out of the factory. Thankfully, the safe only contained syp 350,000 and not more. Also thankfully they did not burn the place down, as has happened to some Aleppo factory owners.

The fact that neighborhoods, such as Azaz, Hreitan and Anadan have fallen out of government control is significant because cars can no longer travel, even in daylight, to Turkey from Aleppo. The entire boarder area is becoming unsafe. This is much worse than Baba Amr or Khaldiye falling out of government control from the point of view of security because Turkey is the base for the Free Syrian Army, arms exports into Syria, and most opposition groups.

To make maters worse, the Syrian Pound has fallen to 83 to the dollar. This means that the net worth of every Syrian has fallen by over 70% since the beginning of the uprising. People do not have enough to eat. More than half the country is living on two dollars a day or less. Hunger and fear are spreading.

Even the middle and upper classes that live in the city centers are beginning to panic and look for a way out of the country. Plane flights to Lebanon from Aleppo are booked for the next month. The exodus has begun.

This is the first real breakdown of Aleppo control. My sister says law and order is deteriorating in the center of Aleppo as well. Armed elements are kidnapping folks for ransom, breaking into houses, and beating people up and stealing their jewelry and money. My wife’s relative, the Gharo family, was invaded in Aleppo today.  A guy rang the intercom and said he was from the security service. He was buzzed in and went upstairs to their apartment. When the Gharos opened the door, a group of thugs went in, grabbed their young son and held a knife to his neck and demanded every valuable in the apartment. When they got their loot, they fled!

Government forces are doing their share of damage. Michael Aswad, a patriach of a prominent Christian family, was killed by the security service last week, apparently by accident when he didn’t stop the taxi he was in as he entered the security zone around his apartment. A high-ranking official lives in his apartment. His death has mortified upper-class Aleppines because he was killed in the city center.

The ability of the government to supply basic goods and services has crumbled. Now security is evaporating. More and more Syrians realize that the state is losing control and are taking maters into their own hands.

On Feb 27, fighting in Aleppo’s northern suburbs resulted in this news

Aleppo Suburbs: The number of martyrs for today has reached 11 martyrs as a result of the continuous shelling by regime’s army on several areas of the suburb. Helicopters are being used to bomb some of the areas.

Aleppo: Andan: Mr. Adnan Abu Ghafour was martyred due to the shelling by the security forces in the city.

Aleppo: Aazaz: Alaa Shawki Al-Shash was martyred by helicopter bombing in the city.

News Round Up

Bearing Witness in Syria: A Correspondent’s Last Days
The armed opposition in Syria is led by the under-equipped Free Syrian Army.
By TYLER HICKS, March 04, 2012

….

Here are some recent videos of militant brigades that have announced their formation in Syria. They are taking shape with growing frequency.

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U.S. sees ‘no fracturing’ of al-Assad regime
2012-03-02

(CNN) — After weeks of collecting intelligence on Syria and watching the attacks by the forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad, the U.S. sees “no fracturing” of the Syrian regime and assesses al-Assad could remain in power for some time to come if the …

The European Union announced its recognition of the Syrian National Council as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people, and called for other opposition factions to unite and work with the Council.

Senator McCain

the Arizona Republican said in an impassioned speech in the U.S. Senate. “The only realistic way to do so is with foreign air power.”

The goal, added the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, should be to establish and defend safe havens, primarily in northern Syria, where opposition forces could organize their efforts. “These safe havens could also help the Free Syrian Army and other armed groups in Syria to train and organize themselves into more cohesive and effective military forces, likely with the assistance of foreign partners,” he said.

McCain, a Vietnam War veteran, said that any such effort would require taking out Syria’s air-defense systems. “We’re the only ones who can do that,” he said.

But he predicted that some kind of intervention will happen, even if the United States does not act. “So the real question for U.S. policy is whether we will participate in this next phase of the conflict in Syria, and thereby increase our ability to shape an outcome that is beneficial to the Syrian people, and to us. I believe we must.”

McCain said that any effort must include other nations. “We should seek the active involvement of key Arab partners,” such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar “and willing allies” in the European Union, NATO and Turkey, he said.

McCain acknowledged that his proposal is a risky one, that the opposition lacks cohesion and that the American public has wearied of war, but said that should not dissuade U.S. officials from moving forward. “There are no ideal options in Syria,” he said. “We need to deal with reality as it is, not as we wish it to be.”

He added, “The Syrian people deserve to succeed. Shame on us if we fail to help them.”

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was non-committal. “The secretary is interested in exploring options that could help end the brutal violence in Syria, but he also recognizes that this is an extremely complex crisis,” a senior Pentagon official said. “Intervention at this time could very well exacerbate problems inside the country.”

WHY DELAYED INTERVENTION IN SYRIA COULD CAUSE RADICALIZATION
By Soner Cagaptay
CNN Global Public Square
March 2, 2012
To view this article on our website, go to:
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A new argument against intervention in Syria is that since the opposition consists of radical Islamist elements, the United States and other countries should shy away from supporting the rebellion against the Bashar al-Assad regime for fear that they might empower Islamists.

I recently visited Turkey, stopping in cities near the Syrian border such as Antakya and Gaziantep. During this trip, I talked to people who are in daily contact with Syrians, including professors at Zirve University in Gaziantep, an international school that has Syrian students, and American journalists who had just returned from Syria. I did not find any evidence that Islamists run the uprising, yet I left Turkey thinking that delayed intervention against the al-Assad regime could surely lead to building Islamist resentment towards al-Assad to the point of empowering radicals in Syria.

In this regard, there is a lesson to be learned from the war in Bosnia in the 1990s. When the Yugoslav Army started its attack on Bosnia in 1992, Bosnian Muslims (also known as Bosniacs) held the distinction of being the world’s “most secular Muslims.” The Bosniacs’ embrace of Islam was non-political, and one’s level of religiosity was a personal matter. The Bosniacs even ate pork liberally, a violation of orthodox Islam that shocked even their fellow liberal Muslims in Turkey.

Only a couple of years after the onslaught against the Bosniacs began, though, Bosnia’s “pork-eating” Muslims were flirting with radical Islamists, including Iranian agents and jihadists. As the outside world watched Serbian forces slaughter Bosniacs, these people increasingly came to view their persecution through a religious lens. They started to believe that (Christian) Serbs were targeting them because of their (Muslim) faith and that the outside world turned a blind eye to their persecution because of their Islamic religion. This process led to a rapid politicization of the Bosniacs’ Muslim identity. Previously secular and even irreligious Bosniacs started to view the world through a religiously-guided Manichean perspective.

This persecution-driven metamorphosis — a historical phenomenon not uncommon among Muslim communities — transformed the Bosnian political landscape quickly and radically. Jihadists, previously considered alien and shunned by Bosniacs, could now find refugee in Bosnia. In fact, when the outside world, led by the United States, decided to intervene in Bosnia in 1995, it was justified by the fear of speedy Bosniac radicalization.

Even though the conflict in Syria lacks an inter-religious dimension, it has a sectarian overtone that could lead to Islamic politicization in Syria akin to that in Bosnia.

The al-Assad regime’s inner circle is composed of Alawites, an offshoot of Islam, while the opposition is mostly made up of Sunni Muslims. Even if the protestors’ demand for democracy is non-religious, the fact that the al-Assad regime and its (Alawite) supporters are brutally killing (Sunni) demonstrators is already giving the conflict in Syria a sectarian hue. Persecution-driven metamorphosis of Islamic identity can reshape the conflict as a religious one — one pitting Alawites against Sunnis, and Sunnis against Alawites.

As anecdotal evidence suggests, some protestors already view their persecution through a religious lens, believing that the regime is targeting them not because they demand democracy, but because it is an Alawite machine trying to massacre the Sunnis. And the more the outside world sits idly by as Syrians are slaughtered, the more the Sunnis in Syria will believe that the world turns a blind eye to such horrors because of their religion.

Add to this the fact that some orthodox Sunnis do not consider Alawites rightful Muslims, and it could be a matter of months before radical elements such as al Qaeda start a propaganda war to depict the Syrian conflict as one of “non-Muslim” Alawites killing Muslims. This perception would transform the fighting as well as send sectarian waves across the Middle East’s fragile landscape. At the same time, it could lead to the radicalization of Syria, turning the country into a fertile recruitment ground for radical groups.

The sooner the international community is able to help end the killing in Syria, the more likely it will be able to prevent the radicalization of the country’s population along sectarian and even religious lines. In Bosnia, after some soul searching, the international community concluded that intervention was the way to end the radicalization of Muslims. What was true in Bosnia appears to also be true in Syria.

Now, An Intervention Must Take Place in Syria
Bernard-Henri Lévy: 02/28/2012

On March 19th, it will be a year, day for day, since squadrons of French planes, later followed by British, American and Arab aircraft, saved Benghazi from what would have been its inevitable destruction.

Well, things being what they are and if the international community does not pull itself together, this anniversary may have the bitter taste of ashes and failure.
For today, there is a new Benghazi.

There is a city in the region that is in precisely the same situation as was Benghazi. To be exact, there is a city that finds itself in even more dire straits than Benghazi was, since the same type of tanks, stationed in the same manner, at the same distance from unarmed civilian populations have, this time, already gone into action, and this for the past several months.

This city is Homs. This is the Syrian capital of pain, where they target journalists and massacre civilians indiscriminately.

And the fact is: what we did there, we are not doing here; the same tanks our aviators nailed to the ground in Libya, just hours before they let loose their fire, are operating in Syrian with complete impunity. Of course, I am aware that the two situations are not identical…..

India refuses government guarantee on Syria oil imports: sources
NEW DELHI | Fri Mar 2, 2012 6:49am EST

(Reuters) – India has refused to provide its sovereign guarantee for oil imports from Syria, two government sources said, frustrating refiners looking for alternative sources of crude to hedge against possible supply disruptions from sanctions-hit Iran.

The Oil Ministry had hoped that the government would underwrite Syrian oil cargoes after Indian insurance firms failed to find re-insurers for shipments from the Middle East nation, which is also targeted by Western sanctions.

New Delhi’s stand on Syrian oil comes after it voted last month in favor of a U.N. resolution endorsing an Arab League plan calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down.

“This is true that the government has denied sovereign guarantee for import of Syrian oil. This was done because of India’s vote against Syria in the United Nations,” said one of the sources.

Both sources had direct knowledge of the decision and declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Indian refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp and explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp, which has a stake in Syrian fields, wanted to import oil from Syria but insurance problems halted their plans.

HPCL had even engaged the Shipping Corp of India to hire a vessel to import Syrian crude. The India government is now weighing options, including extending sovereign guarantees for its shipping lines and buying Iranian oil on a delivered basis to ensure cargoes from July.

Iran is India’s second-largest crude oil supplier, meeting about 11 percent of the South Asian country’s imports. Tehran is facing Western sanctions over its nuclear plans that many say is aimed at making a bomb. Iran says it wants to produce power.

The sanctions have made it difficult for its Asian customers to pay for oil imports. India currently pays Iran for its imports through a bank in Turkey but that conduit is vulnerable to Western sanctions. India currently does not buy any crude oil from Syria.

France announces it’s closing embassy in Syria

Nick Heras, “The Revolution Will Be Uploaded: Citizen Journalism in Homs.” It is published in Fair Observer and it explores how Syrian citizen journalists are taking the leading role in reporting the battle for control in Homs.

Greg Djerejian of Belgravia Dispatch discusses several recent op-eds recommending intervention in Syria, especially Nakleh’s op-ed in the FT

Economy

EU De-lists Ghreiwati, Names Seven Blacklisted Ministers: The seven new Syrian individuals on whom the European Union imposed sanctions on Monday have been named, while a prominent businessman has been taken off the blacklist.

Syria to Conduct Barter Deals for the Purchase of Key Food Commodities: The Syrian Government has decided to carry barter deals to circumvent the impact of international sanctions on the Syrian economy, according to a local newspaper.

Russian Companies Stop Operations in Syria: Russian companies have interrupted their operations in Syria because of the security situation in the country, according to Georgy Petrov, Vice President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Libya Offers USD 100 million to Syrian Opposition: The Libyan Government has announced that it would give USD 100 million in humanitarian help to Syria’s opposition.

Inside Syria – Can Syria’s opposition unite Part 1 – Al-Jazeera English
why Syria’s opposition has been unable to incorporate itself into a strong coalition with a united message and what the divide means for Assad. Guests: Joshua Landis, Syria expert; Randa Slim, scholar, ME Institute; Najib Ghadbian, SNC.

Part 2

Formation of SNC military council causes uproar among fighters in Syria and Turkey

The Homs Revolutionary Council has announced that it will “not coordinate with Burhan Ghalioun in the affairs of the Military Office and its principles” because it doesn’t agree with its goals. It had a 15 minute phone call with Ghalioun. It wants “action not words.” It will retain authority over its own military strategy, “which is to bring down the regime and free Syria from the ruling gang.”

SNC Statement on the Formation of Military Bureau

….the Syrian National Council (SNC) has established a Military Bureau composed of military and civilian personnel. The Military Bureau will track the armed opposition groups, organize and unify their ranks under one central command, defining their defense missions while placing them under the political supervision of the SNC, and coordinating their activities in accordance with the overall strategy of the Revolution. The SNC will work on providing the FSA with all the support it needs to completely fulfill its defense responsibilities, including securing necessary protection for civilians, and tending to the Revolutionaries defending Syrians against the criminal regime. Bureau members will seek assistance from appropriate sources, including experts.

Free Syrian Army (FSA) chief Colonel Riad al-Asaad said that he has not been involved in the formation of a military council. “I don’t know about the objectives of this body,” said Asaad, a figurehead for the collection of army deserters and civilians who have taken up arms. (Reuters)

Ghalioun aide Ausama Monajed told reporters the military body would bring all the factions fighting the Syrian government under one umbrella, evaluate their military needs and try to match them with offers of aid from abroad.

Monajed said several countries, including Saudi Arabia, have offered to provide weapons to the rebels.

“Arms are already being smuggled whether we like it or not, so our role is to organize the process and make sure weapons don’t fall into the wrong hands on the ground,” he said.

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Dennis Ross, “Time For Assad to Go” – WINEP

“it is time to raise the status of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the formal Syrian opposition. It must increasingly be seen as the recognized successor to the Assad regime — or at least the vehicle for managing the transition to a new and inclusive leadership.
Withholding recognition of the council as the alternative to Assad made sense as a way to encourage its leaders to overcome petty rivalries and develop a coherent, non-sectarian plan for shaping the future of Syria. Last week, when the “Friends of Syria” — a group that includes the U.S., Britain, France, Turkey and a number of Arab countries — met in Tunis, international leaders treated the SNC as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people. Though a step in the right direction, more will need to be done to create an aura of inevitability about the SNC as the alternative to Assad.

Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity or Quagmire?
By Patrick Clawson – WINEP – Strategic Forum, February 2012

Perception of the Power of the United States and Its Allies A strong argument can be made that U.S. prestige and influence around the world suffer if the United States issues a call for Asad’s overthrow and yet he stays in power. The United States has a compelling interest in ensuring that any time the President of the United States says something must happen, then it does happen. Indeed, a serious argument for the U.S. military commitment in Libya was that President Obama had said publicly that Qaddafi must go. Talk is not cheap; staking out a position without being willing to act undermines the credibility of every U.S…..

The U.S. call for Asad’s overthrow may provide an opportunity for Washington to claim credit for something that is going to happen anyway; in geopolitics, it is always good to be credited for making the sun rise in the east.

Were Asad to muddle through, Washington would face some difficult quandaries. So long as Asad is in power, it will be hard to walk back the sanctions imposed on Syria, yet it will be difficult to sustain economic and political isolation of the Asad regime if that government looks like it will be in power for the foreseeable future. If that isolation lessens, then the United States and its allies will look like they lost a confrontation with Asad, which would reduce their perceived clout. Asad’s overthrow is by no means assured, and U.S. instruments to advance that objective are limited. The U.S. Government decision to call for his overthrow presumably rested on a judgment that the prospects for success were good and the payoff, if successful, would be high….

Impact on Israel

It is difficult to see how Asad’s overthrow would make Syrian-Israeli peace less likely….

The Syrian National Council has created a military bureau. The leader, Burhan Ghalioun will hold a press conference tomorrow (Thursday) in Paris,” according to one source.
[Update March 1 Thursday] The BBC reports: Syria crisis: Opposition sets up military bureau: “Mr Ghalioun said the bureau would function like a defence ministry and would be staffed by soldiers from the main armed group, the Free Syrian Army, as well as civilians”

How did this come about? The scuttlebutt is that about 20 members of the SNC leaked the following news of a split within the SNC and defections in order to get their way. It was picked up by Shamlife, Le Point. Reuters and other papers. The principal leaders of the group who want greater militarization are both Islamist and secular: Haitham al-Maleh, Kamal al-Labwani, Catherine al-Talli, Walid al-Bunni and Fawaz al-Tello. See this

Syrie : l’opposition en voie de décomposition ?
Le Point.fr – 29/02/2012

Le Conseil national syrien vient de voir vingt de ses membres faire défection pour créer une organisation concurrente.

Le président du CNS, Burhan Ghalioun, doit faire face à une majorité d’islamistes financés par le Qatar.

…la principale coalition de l’opposition au régime de Bachar el-Assad a vu vingt de ses membres faire défection pour créer une organisation concurrente : le Groupe patriotique syrien. “Le Conseil national syrien s’est formé sans parvenir à obtenir de résultats satisfaisants et sans être capable de répondre aux demandes des insurgés présents à l’intérieur de la Syrie”, indique le groupe dans un communiqué transmis à Reuters.

La création de la nouvelle instance, présidée par Haytham al-Maleh, un ancien juge et opposant de longue date, est le dernier revers en date pour une opposition minée par les désaccords….

Le rôle du Qatar

Si les grandes figures du CNS sont des laïcs, la majorité du Conseil est formée d’islamistes syriens, financés par le Qatar. Ce n’est donc pas un hasard si c’est dans l’émirat que s’est déroulé le 9 février le congrès du CNS, ou encore si c’est Doha qui a financé le sommet à Tunis des “Amis de la Syrie”, où le CNS tenait la vedette au milieu d’une soixantaine de pays. “Le CNS n’est pas l’émanation de l’opposition syrienne, mais un groupe très disparate constitué et financé par le Qatar et appuyé par la France”, affirme pour sa part le chercheur Fabrice Balanche (2). ….”Le CNS, lui, n’est constitué que d’exilés, qui n’ont que très peu de contacts avec la révolte sur le terrain”, ajoute le chercheur. Pour dissiper les craintes, le CNS se livrerait à de la communication en mettant en avant des “costumes-cravates”, explique Barah Mikaïl. Son président, Burhan Ghalioun, vit en France depuis 30 ans. Son porte-parole, Bassma Kodmani, chercheur associé au Ceri (Sciences-Po), a quitté la Syrie il y a 43 ans. “Il existe chez ces personnes une aspiration à la diversité ethnique, religieuse et idéologique, mais elle est bloquée par les islamistes”, renchérit le spécialiste.

L’Iran visé

Malgré des divergences manifestes, la France veillerait à ce qu’aucun autre groupe d’opposition n’émerge à l’étranger. Outre le soutien diplomatique, le Quai d’Orsay se serait opposé en octobre dernier à la tenue à Paris d’une conférence de presse de Syriens de l’intérieur, dont l’opposant historique Michel Kilo. “La France ne veut pas déplaire aux Qataris, avec lesquels elle entretient des liens diplomatiques et économiques privilégiés”, indique Fabrice Balanche. …..

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The Media leak about defections served as a means to twist the arm of Ghalioun and others who have been reluctant to develop a military strategy. The SNC leadership “freaked out,” according to some. The 20 got what they wanted, which is to take control of SNC relations with the “Free Syrian Army” and to have a bigger say in SNC decisions. The other SNC factions grudgingly gave them the FSA portfolio. “It’s all part of the SNC internal never-ending power struggle,” one friend wrote. “The media is being used as a tool as usual.”

Demonstrators in Aleppo suburb call for a Caliphate and Islamic rule. They chant, “Heros of Islam, No to Bashar and no to Ghalioun. We want Islam to rule.”
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If you want to know why the Islamists object to Burhan Ghalioun, watch this video in which Ghalioun argues that clerics rule the imagination of the Arabs and that 90% of Arabs know nothing else but what imams teach them. They spread authoritarianism, he argues.

Rami Khoury

“What happens after the regime falls? Who takes over power?” This is usually asked with a tone of foreboding, with concern that bad or unknown political forces will assume power. Most worry revolves around the prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamists assuming power, on the grounds that they are the best organized political groups.

Sometimes this leads frightened people to conclude that it is better to stick with the governments we have – despite their flaws – rather than risk the unknown or an Islamist takeover of power. We hear the same thing said about Syria these days, as many ponder the possible or, I sense, likely, fall of the Assad family dynasty of 42 years.

It is time for analysts to get over their worries and adjust to the overwhelming lesson from the first year of the ongoing Arab uprisings: The transition from autocracy to democracy, and from authoritarianism to pluralism, in the Arab world must necessarily pass through a phase of Islamist rule or of coalition governments in which Islamists play a role……

The End of Taking the Syrian Revolution at Face Value
Bassam Haddad, Jadaliyya

Those interested in a revolution that would be considered a significant step forward from the existing Syrian regime, might want to take pause as they steadfastly support some of its main anchors. In particular, months after its establishment, the Syrian National Council (SNC) has failed in providing the leadership, autonomy, and consensus necessary to battle the Syrian regime. This much is no longer a controversial remark, even among some of the ranks of the SNC. But there is more that can and should be systematically discussed, not just to point out the divisiveness and counterproductive alliances associated with the SNC, but precisely to understand how might a robust opposition lead this overdue uprising against decades of tyranny.

The fact that the SNC still has a strong constituency domestically is less a function of its representative nature and political efficacy and much more a function of a constellation of factors that leaves little choice for an embattled and isolated protest movement. More critically, some of the expressed strategies of the SNC—e.g., regional/international alliances, intervention, and future plans–converge with a growing conservative and sectarian trend within the internal opposition, a trend that is growing in number and in terms of regional ties. Whether that trend is itself a desperate response to regime brutality and the shabbiha’s sectarianism or an expression of something more cynical, or both, is not the issue.The SNC has so far failed as an anti-dictatorial leadership in asserting the kind of values and strategies that build consensus and attract further support locally, regionally, and internationally. As a result, to simply assume that this uprising will triumph simply because the regime is authoritarian and is killing its own people, is no longer to be taken for granted. The internal opposition is now armed, and we are looking at a different kind of confrontation, even if the upper-hand militarily is on the regime’s side. Read more

Steven Starr – Five Years in Damascus. On leaving Damascus – a beautiful piece by a fine reporter who has spent the last five years learning a lot about Syria and writing many excellent articles. We will miss having him in Damascus.

Syrian capital is a city changed in a year
By ZEINA KARAM, Associated Press – Tue Feb 28

…Similarly, a year ago, you could wait for hours for a table at Elissar, a restaurant in one of the renovated traditional stone houses in Damascus’ old city, popular among Syrians and tourists alike. It was largely empty Monday night as we dined there.

Five star hotels also are deserted, save for a few journalists and the odd couple having breakfast a la carte, because the hotel no longer has enough clients to serve buffets.

Among the Syrian upper and middle classes, there is often disdain for a protest movement they see as largely dominated by lower-class, religiously conservative Sunnis. Assad has retained support among the country’s Alawite minority — a Shiite offshoot sect to which he belongs — but also among secular Syrians of all sects, who do not trust the opposition.

“They want to take us back 100 years,” Maha Shujaa, a 38-year-old interior designer and Assad supporter, said of the protesters.

“Who is going to protect me when the president goes, those bearded guys? No thanks,” said Shujaa, who refused to divulge her religious identity, saying she is “a Syrian citizen.”

Life in upscale Damascus areas like Abou Rummaneh, Mazzeh and the old city seems relatively normal. But lower-class neighborhoods like Midan, Barzeh and Kafar Souseh — dominated by Sunni Muslims who have been the backbone of the revolt — see frequent, small-scale anti-Assad rallies. Activists hold “flying protests,” a sort of flash mob in which several dozen protesters convene suddenly on a street, chant and hold up banners, then disperse before security forces can move in. Activists record the rallies and post the video online.

Eruptions of gunfire are not uncommon, sometimes from security forces shooting at protesters but also reportedly from protesters opening fire on police.

On Monday, I watched busloads of security forces speed by the Interior Ministry, sending motorists fleeing out of their way — reportedly returning from a mission in Kfar Souseh to disperse mourners who turned a funeral into a protest.

Thick concrete blast walls and checkpoints now protect the entrances to ministries, security buildings and other state institutions. Guards check drivers’ IDs….

The community of Mar Musa victim of an armed attack
Press Release: Events of Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at Deir Mar Musa el-Habashi:

On Wednesday evening about 18 pm, the following occurred:

Thirty armed men – all of which, except the commander, had their faces covered – stormed the scene of the fold of the monastery, where there were few employees. They ransacked the premises, looking for weapons and money, wondering where the father was responsible. One of the shepherds had to drive some armed persons to another part of the monastery. There were four sisters sequestered in a room under surveillance when they were preparing to go to prayer. Immediately after, some of the assailants hurried to go to church and entering. The monastic community gathered for meditation, reminded them that this place was dedicated to prayer and deserved respect. The gunmen forced the present as threats to gather in one corner of the church. Subsequently, they intercepted others in the monastery by treating them brutally. Then, without causing major damage, they continued to look, without result, weapons and money, destroying all means of communication they could find. During the attack, the group leader was taking pictures with his cell phone. After allowing the prayer continues, he ordered the present to remain in the church for one hour.

The superior of the monastery was in Damascus, and could not return until dawn on Thursday.

It should be noted that those of the armed people who exercised had declared immediately their intention not to hurt the people inside the monastery, and they actually kept his word during the assault.

Naturally, the question arises about the identity of the armed group. Impossible at present to give a definite answer. What seems certain is that it is men accustomed to the use of arms in order to satisfy their material interests. Also remains unclear why they were looking for weapons in a monastery known for years for his choice and his advocacy of nonviolence.
We thank God for the protection of his angels, and we prayed during the Mass for our attackers and their families. Despite these painful events, we have not lost the peace nor the desire to serve reconciliation.

Nick Heras: “The Syrian Uprising: A Product of High Incipience.” The article analyzes the Arab Spring in Syria, Egypt, and Libya through the framework of a new concept of social mobilization and the evolution of social movements called “incipience.” The article is posted on the International Affairs Forum website.

A Chinese vision begins to emerge
By Peter Lee

The dominant stereotype of Chinese foreign policy in the Middle East is “amoral oil grubbing mercantilists who never met a dictator they didn’t like”.

Perhaps.

But the job of an amoral, oil-grubbing mercantilist has been made much more complicated and challenging as tensions rise in the region and heightened demands are placed on the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Saudi Arabia, China’s largest oil supplier, expects China’s support in its campaign against Iran.

Iran turns to China for help in breaking the sanctions blockade that threatens its oil exports, its access to the global financial system, and its domestic economy.

The United States, the European Union, Turkey, the Gulf States and a big chunk of the Arab League excoriate China for seconding Russia’s veto of an anti-Bashar al-Assad resolution in the United Nations Security Council.

However, contrary to its image as an opportunistic and reactive player in the Middle East, China has not only dug in its heels on Syria; it has stepped up with a diplomatic initiative of its own.

China also voted against the non-binding Syria resolution drafted for the UN General Assembly by Saudi Arabia, the oil baron that is generally regarded as calling the tune for China on Middle Eastern issues.

Free Syrian Army lacks organization in fight against Bashar Assad – Decoder (2:50)

In this episode of The Decoder, Syria expert Joshua Landis breaks down the different opposition groups, and says that the next leadership will likely emerge from the battlefield.

“We should do whatever necessary to help them, including giving them weapons to defend themselves,” Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani said. “This uprising in Syria now [has lasted] one year. For 10 months, it was peaceful: So I think they’re right to defend themselves by weapons and I think we should help these people by all means.”

The referendum on the new constitution? 57.4 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots & 89.3% ‘approve the new Constitution, according to Syrian sources. The Baath Party no longer should rule, but any new presidential candidate may not have lived outside of the country for any period of time over the previous ten years, a requirement Assad would not have fulfilled when he became president.

Syria referendum called ‘a sham’, Hugh Macleod, Annasofie Flamand, and an anonymous GlobalPost journalist in Damascus report on the constitutional referendum held in Syria yesterday. At one polling station in a state-run clinic in Damascus’ Midan district, a neighborhood of traditional Sunni Damascene families and a center for protests in the capital, the transparent ballot box was still almost empty […]

TUNISIA MEETING ON SYRIA – US ANALYST Duration: 07:50 – (Radio – go to minute 10)

If people in Syria were hoping for the world to act, then they may have reason for more disappointment. The first meeting of the “Friends of Syria” group — with representatives from sixty countries and organizations — ended in Tunisia today with divisions, questions, and the promise of another meeting.

Homs, Syria (CNN) — A freelance cameraman who visited Homs recently put together a video that provides a rare glimpse of life in the embattled city and an even rarer close-up of the opposition movement in Syria.

Syria Hit List
By Hamed Aleaziz
Monday, February 27, 2012- Mother Jones

A 718-page digital document obtained by Mother Jones contains names, phone numbers, neighborhoods, and alleged activities of thousands of dissidents apparently targeted by the Syrian government. Three experts asked separately by Mother Jones to examine the document—essentially a massive spreadsheet, whose contents are in Arabic—say they believe that it is authentic. As Bashar al-Assad’s military continues a deadly crackdown on dissent inside the country, the list appears to confirm in explicit detail the scale of the regime’s domestic surveillance and its methodical efforts to destroy widespread opposition…..

The Egyptian Parliamentarian speaks out about the “Alawi Shiites” in Syria and Assad’s brutality during a discussion of unemployment. The head of parliament tries to shush him in vain. Youtube

CBS News: Hillary Clinton: Assad regime dishonors Syria

Red Cross frustrated in Syria evacuation effort Clinton blunt with Russia, China over Syria Syria in crisis: Who are the key players? Wyatt Andrews: Let’s get right to Syria, please. I know and respect that you think the Friends of Syria conference …

Foreign Policy Roundup

Syrian government held a referendum on constitutional reform. The opposition boycotted the poll, accusing President Bashar al-Assad of failing to abide by the current constitution. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said, “no one is fooled” by the referendum while the regime proceeds to “open fire on civilians.” The polling was marred by violence with 63 civilians and soldiers killed during Sunday’s voting. The European Union has extended sanctions on Syria including on its central bank. Meanwhile, China lashed out after a statement made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the Chinese and Russian vote blocking a U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria “despicable.” China called the comments “unacceptable” and questioned the “sincerity and efficacy of U.S. policy”, referring to the intervention in Iraq.

Economic News from Syria Report

Syria Ends Trade Liberalisation Era: The Syrian Government has raised customs tariffs on a wide range of consumer goods, reverting further a decade-old policy of trade liberalisation and risking an additional increase in consumer prices in the local market….

Central Bank Lowers Again Interest Rates to Stem Rising Borrowing Costs”: Syria’s Central Bank has lowered interest rates on time deposits by up to 2 percent in response to pressure from the business community and banks but at a time of high inflation….

EU Sanctions to Constrain Further Central Bank Operations: The European Union imposed today new sanctions on Syria including a freeze of the assets of the Central Bank and a ban on cargo flights.

“Friends of Syria” Meeting Announces Working Group on Economic Recovery: The “Friends of Syria” meeting organised last week in Tunisia announced the establishment of an economic recovery working group to draft plans on “rebuilding Syria.”

New York Times

The central issue is how to speed up what many now regard as the inevitable collapse of the Assad government without plunging the society into a civil war, said Volker Perthes, a German scholar of the region who runs the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“Arming the rebels and bringing about a civil war will prolong the regime,” Mr. Perthes said. “A real war is what Assad really wants, because it would allow him to overcome the reluctance of the great majority of the armed forces to fight.”

David Ignatius: Bringing down Assad

Arming the rebels would not help Syria. The moral case for arming the rebels may be strong, but it doesn’t overcome the practical problem: The battlefield is Assad’s strength, not weakness. A better route to democratic change in Syria is the mix of economic, diplomatic and other pressure discussed at Friday’s “Friends of Syria” meeting in Tunis, which also urged a cease-fire…..

In Break, Hamas Supports Syrian Opposition
The New York Times
By FARES AKRAM

GAZA —A leader of Hamas spoke out against President Bashar al-Assad of Syria on Friday, throwing its support behind the opposition and stripping Damascus of what little credibility it may have retained with the Arab street. It was Hamas’s first public break with its longtime patron.
Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, said during Friday Prayer, “I salute all people of the Arab Spring, or Islamic winter, and I salute the Syrian people who seek freedom, democracy and reform.”
The worshipers shouted back, “God is great” and “Syria! Syria!”
Mr. Haniya made his remarks in support of the uprising that is seeking to oust Mr. Assad, a reversal after years in which Mr. Assad has given safe haven to leaders of Hamas while helping supply it with weapons and cash in its battle against Israel.

Al-Akhbar: Syria’s Electronic Warriors Hit Al Jazeera
Interesting indications of behind-the-scenes problems at al-Jazeera over its Syria coverage.

Fedwa Suleiman – Youtube in Arabic by an Alawi Actress who has spoken out on the side of the revolution and against Assads gangs, security, and shabbiha

Arab spring cleaning The Economist
Why trade reform matters in the Middle East
A YEAR after the start of the Arab spring, no government in the Middle East has attempted serious economic reform even though it is obvious both that economies are distorted and that discontent over living standards has played a big part in the uprisings. The main reaction by governments has been to buy off further protests by increasing public spending. Saudi Arabia boosted government spending by over 50% between 2008 and 2011.

Although higher oil prices have been enough to finance these rises, much of the extra spending has gone into public-sector wages and consumer subsidies. Food and fuel subsidies are often huge: over 10% of GDP in Egypt. In the region as a whole, fuel subsidies rose from 2.3% of GDP in 2009 to 3.2% in 2011.

These subsidies benefit the rich, keep loss-making firms alive and damage the economy. According to the IMF, the richest fifth of Jordanians capture 40% of fuel-subsidy gains; the poorest fifth get 7%. More important, subsidies exacerbate the region’s most important economic problem, which, argue Adeel Malik of the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies and Bassem Awadallah*, a former Jordanian finance minister, is “that it has been unable to develop a private sector that is independent, competitive and integrated with global markets”. By distorting domestic prices, subsidising energy-guzzling firms and increasing public-sector wages relative to private-sector ones, the past year’s actions have made it even harder to develop a flourishing private sector.

‘Beyond the fall of the Syrian regime’ (Peter Harling & Sarah Birke, Middle East Report online)

Troubling Times Ahead

…On both sides, thugs and criminals are exploiting the struggle as a vehicle for social promotion, a means of enrichment and an outlet for sectarian hatred. This statement is true of regime forces, whose fallacious claim to stand for law and order is disproved all too often by their heinous behavior, as it is of some armed groups fighting them under the umbrella of the “Free Syrian Army,” a motley assortment of local vigilantes. The recruits into this “Army” range from fathers defending their families to bereaved young men to defectors fighting for their lives, but its ranks are not devoid of fundamentalist militants and unreconstructed villains. To date, the latter elements have not been predominant, although they are all that the regime, its supporters and its allies want to see. The logic is self-evident: The ruling elite, having little good to offer, is hell-bent on proving that anything else to emerge from Syrian society can only be much worse. Thus the almost hysterical cult of Bashar, whose gross mishandling of this crisis matters not to his supporters: He alone can save this society from itself….

…”All told, on a domestic level Syria has entered a struggle to bring its post-colonial era to a close. It is not simply about toppling a “regime” but about uprooting a “system” — the Arabic word nizam conveniently evoking both notions. The current system is based on keeping Syrians hostage to communal divisions and regional power plays. Indeed, the regime’s residual legitimacy derives entirely from playing indigenous communities and foreign powers off each other, at the expense of genuine state building and accountable leadership. ….

The first is the reality of Bashar’s power base, which has narrowed spectacularly but remains an incontrovertible fact on the ground. Just as the regime dismisses the protest movement with the spurious argument that a majority has not taken to the streets (as if any country around the world had ever witnessed half its people on the march), the regime’s opponents berate its supporters as a minority of delusional, criminal, treacherous citizens. The fact is that, just as the regime cannot survive this crisis by ignoring the millions mobilized against it, so a transition cannot succeed while overlooking the millions — security officers, proxies and regular people — who have thrown in their lot with Bashar. Short of protection for the people most exposed to retribution, notably among the ‘Alawis, a genuine reconciliation mechanism, an effective transitional justice process and a thorough but smooth overhaul of the security services, it could all go very wrong.

Secondly, judging by the SNC’s performance, there is cause for concern if it were to play a key role in such a transition. Its leading members, hindered by personal rivalries, unable to formulate clear political positions for fear of implosion and seemingly consumed with having a spot in the limelight, may fall back on sectarian apportionment as the only consensual criterion for power sharing. Syrians on the street have made clear that they see the SNC’s legitimacy as based on their ability to lobby for diplomatic pressure and see their mandate as stretching no further, but the outside world’s quest for a ready-made “alternative,” and the prevailing assumption that pluralist societies in the Middle East are condemned to such evolution, could prove to be Syria’s undoing. A political process including the SNC, but built primarily around locally led organizations, along with technocrats and businessmen, would have more legitimacy and a greater chance of success.

Finally, as increasingly desperate protesters call for help, there is a danger that the outside world will make matters worse as it plays at being savior. Calls for aid are somewhat worse than a pact with the devil: They entail pacts with many devils that do not agree on much. The Gulf monarchies, Iraq, Turkey, Russia, the US, Iran and others all see geostrategic stakes in the fate of the Asad regime. The greater their involvement, the less Syrians will remain in control of their destiny. Crying out for foreign intervention of any kind, to bring this emergency to an end at any cost, is more than understandable coming from ordinary citizens subjected to extreme forms of regime violence. Exiled opposition figures who pose as national leaders have no excuse for behaving likewise, when what is needed is a cool-headed, careful calibration of what type of outside “help” would do the minimum of harm.

Close to home, another Middle Eastern experience — Iraq — serves as an example on all three fronts. A political process excluding even a relatively small minority within Iraqi society led to a collective disaster. A group of returning exiles, without a social base but enjoying international support as the only visible, pre-existing “alternative,” quickly took over the transition and agreed only on splitting up power among themselves on the basis of a communal calculus. Their division of the spoils gradually contaminated the entire polity, and ultimately led to civil war. And the US, presiding over this tragedy, succeeded only in turning Iraq into a parody of itself, a country that now fits every sectarian and troubled stereotype the occupying power initially saw in it….

…What is different today is the awakening of a broad popular movement, ….

Nick Heras “Iranian Crisis Spurs Saudi Reconsideration of Nuclear Weapons.” It is published in the Jamestown Foundation:

When Assad Won
BY DAVID KENNER | FEBRUARY 22, 2012, Foreign Policy

A bloody six-year civil war fought against Bashar al-Assad’s father presents a cautionary tale for Syria’s modern-day rebels.

SNC Announcement

Seeking support for a two-fold strategy

– Strengthening the peaceful nature of the revolt on the ground through: the SNC seeks all possible support for its strategy aimed at a) establishing local councils in different regions of the country to support the civilian population and provide the networks for channeling assistance now and preserving civil society for the future, b) mobilizing hitherto reluctant groups to support the revolt, and c) encouraging defections of businessmen who supported the regime so far, technocrats and civil servants.

– Supporting the Free Syrian Army and all forms of popular Resistance

Understanding and supporting the desire to depose the Assad regime through non-violent means, the Syrian people have the right to protect themselves and their communities. If the regime fails to accept the terms of political initiative outlined by the Arab League and end violence against citizens, the Friends of Syria should not constrain individual countries from aiding the Syrian Opposition by means of military advisors, training and provision of arms to defend themselve…

3- The establishment of an international fund with pledges from Arab and friendly states for food, shelter and medical supplies. But funds as medical aid are useless without a mechanism for delivery. Hence the need for safe passages.

4- Recognition of the SNC as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The SNC seeks international recognition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people….

6- Starting a Political Transition Plan

Negotiation with the goal of Regime Change: The SNC sees that a political negotiation with the acceptable members of the Syrian government is still possible and is likely the best way to achieve the desired goal of regime change. The SNC will therefore continue to seek Russia’s cooperation to press the regime for stopping the repression so a ceasefire can be reached.

Negotiation with acceptable members of the regime is possible so long as it is understood that the goal of any such negotiation is government change under the condition that no negotiation should take place until a full cease fire is in place, the killing has stopped, and prisoners have been released. By acceptable, we mean regime figures who do not have blood on their hands and who may be allowed to remain during a transitional period.

The clear goal of the SNC and one for which tens of thousands of Syrians have died or suffered is to achieve full regime change through a process controlled by the Syrians themselves……

The primary task of a unity government will be to restructure the security apparatus of the country, to revise the constitution, and to restructure government institutions so they continue to serve the people during the transition….
The SNC is ready to name by name the members of the Al Assad clan and any close affiliates who will be expected to depart within a set timeframe. Other figures from the regime can be named who will be expected to be removed from their positions but be allowed to remain in the country. Immunity from prosecution could be considered for key regime figures so long as they stay away from Syria and commit not to ever interfere in its internal politics. Any violation of this pledge will result in immediate prosecution.

A Presidential council will be formed in the transition phase and will be responsible for all affairs related to sovereignty. ….

7- Diversity and Minorities

The SNC has clearly stated in its political program that it sees no future for any of the components of Syrian society without the necessary guarantees given to the ethnic (Kurds, Assyrians, and others) religious (Christians, Alawites, Druze, and others) minorities : provisions for their safety and well-being, respect for their rights in the Constitution, laws and public policies. A democratic Syria will be as much about the protection of and respect for minorities’ rights as it will be about

The Friends of Syria meeting in Tunis is a “challenge” to Assad, not an “ultimatum”, US officials are saying. This means that it will be another exercise in raising the rhetorical bar of condemnation against Syria but will probably not do much damage to the regime or rescue the Syrian opposition in Homs. The Saudi delegation has pulled out of the conference, accusing it of “inactivity.”

Representatives from more than 60 Western and Arab countries are meeting in Tunis, Tunisia today to call for the Syrian government to implement an immediate ceasefire and to allow humanitarian assistance for civilians and people wounded in violence. The group is not expected to discuss military options. They will increase sanctions. Former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has been appointed as a special envoy by the United Nations and the Arab League to represent them in finding a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis.

“One of the things you are going to see coming out of the meeting tomorrow are concrete proposals on how we, the international community, plan to support humanitarian organizations … within days, meaning that the challenge is on the Syrian regime to respond to this,” said a senior U.S. official.

Asked if the group’s call would amount to an ultimatum, a second U.S. official told reporters: “It is a challenge.”

The Syrian opposition council announced it would ask the “Friends of Syria” to prioritize the creation of humanitarian corridors….

News Round Up

NYTimes

….At a news conference on Thursday, Mrs. Clinton moved the United States a step closer to recognizing the Syrian National Council though a formal recognition is not expected in Tunis. She also said later, discussing growing pressure on Mr. Assad: “There will be increasingly capable opposition forces. They will — from somewhere, somehow — find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures. And the pressure will build on countries like Russia and China because world opinion is not going to stand idly by.”

On Friday, Mr. Hague, the British official, urged Moscow and Beijing to revise their pro-Assad policies. “I think the Chinese government is constantly assessing the position and so I hope they will change their position,” he told reporters.

Foreign Policy

Syrian state TV referred to the conference as a meeting of “symbols of colonialism” and said the countries attending were “historic enemies of the Arabs.” Neither Russia nor China, who vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution based on an Arab League plan aimed to end the Syrian violence, attended the conference. The “Friends of Syria” seem to be favoring the opposition Syrian National Council, but are not giving the group exclusive recognition. The other main opposition group, the National Coordination Committee, is boycotting the conference. They lay out their reasons for the boycott, here.

‘Q&A: Nir Rosen’s predictions for Syria’ (Nir Rosen, Al Jazeera English)

“If the struggle drags on, the local civilian “political” leadership of the revolution will lose influence, and the more moderate Sufi sheikhs who exercise an influence over armed groups will also lose control. The insurgency and its supporters will become increasingly radicalised. They will condemn those leaders who looked to the outside world for support, and those who called for restraint. Those voices who say Islam is the only solution will become loudest; those voices calling for a declaration of jihad will be raised, and they will, in my opinion, target Sunni rivals as well as Alawites and other minorities. This scenario is also possible if the regime kills or captures enough senior leaders of the revolution. On the other hand, even if Assad and his family wanted to leave power – or even leave Syria – how would they explain this sudden about face to their supporters? The regime’s fans, especially its base among the Alawites, may also be radicalised, embracing maximalist violence out of fear. And what happens to the cronies who benefit from the system as it is, and to the security forces who have nowhere to go? Do they just go home — or do they fight to the death out of fear of extermination, and then hang on as some kind of insurgency against any new regime installed with the help of the West, Turkey and the Arab League?…

The insurgency will gradually carve out autonomous zones, from Idlib to Hama to Homs and approaching the suburbs of Damascus. Foreign intelligence agencies will eventually provide covert assistance to the insurgency. But Iranian – and possibly Russian – advisers will likely provide advice to the regime in counter-insurgency. So parts of the country will fall into opposition hands, and parts will remain in the hands of the regime. Alawites in Homs may flee to the villages they originally came from. Christians will flee to their former villages or to Damascus. Both of these trends have already started. Sunni remaining in Latakia will be vulnerable, and in the event of Alawites returning to Latakia’s mountain villages, fleeing from other parts of the country, the region’s Sunni may also be forcibly displaced….

Syria is crumbling before our eyes, and a thoroughly modern nation is likely to be set back many decades.

Human rights in Syria – Commission of Inquiry report published

….20. The activity of the Free Syria Army (FSA) groups resulted in the temporary withdrawal of State forces from cities or areas in the Rif Dimashq, Idlib and Homs governorates. Since December 2011, the army has attacked these areas with heavy weapons, leading to massive casualties and the destruction of homes and infrastructure (see paragraphs 38-46 below).

21. The Government stated that other armed non-State actors not affiliated to the FSA are operating in the country, including Al-Qaida and other religious extremists. In its report, the League of Arab States also makes a distinction between the FSA and “other opposition armed groups”. Numerous sources report the presence of extremist groups in the country. The commission was unable to verify information on the membership, background and operations of such groups.

22. On 23 December 2011, 50 people were reportedly killed in two bombings next to the offices of security agencies in Damascus, which the Government attributed to Al-Qaida. No one, including Al-Qaida, claimed responsibility. In its report, the League of Arab States mentioned that its observers in Homs, Hama and Idlib reported the bombing of a civilian bus (with eight casualties), a police bus (two casualties), a train loaded with diesel fuel, an oil pipeline and small bridges. In other cases, League observers found that alleged bombings were falsely reported. On 10 February 2012, 28 people were reportedly killed and 235 injured in two large explosions at Military Intelligence and police buildings in Aleppo. The Government and other sources attributed these explosions to terrorists. On 14 February, a major pipeline near Homs exploded. The Government blamed “terrorist saboteurs”, while opposition activists attributed the act to State forces shelling in the area.

23. According to all accounts, casualties rose steeply as the violence intensified; thousands of lives have been lost.

24. On 27 December 2011, the Government informed the commission that, according to hospital and police reports, at least 2,131 civilians had been killed in the period from 15 March to 19 December 2011. The Government added that a total of 913 soldiers and 215 police officers (1,128 people in total) were killed during the same period.9 According to the Government, from 23 December 2011 to 10 February 2012, a further 651 members of the army and security forces were killed and 2,292 injured.10 In addition, 519 unidentified bodies were found. On 15 February 2012, the Government provided additional figures, according to which 2,493 civilians and 1,345 soldiers and police officers had been killed in the Syrian Arab Republic in the period from 15 March 2011 to 18 January 2012.

25. The Violations Documenting Centre, affiliated to the local coordination committees, counted 6,399 civilians and 1,680 army defectors killed in the period from 15 March 2011 to 15 February 2012.11 The victims included 244 adult women, 115 girls and 425 boys…..

After a year, deep divisions hobble Syria’s opposition
by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, February 24, 2012

“Nearly a year after the uprising began, the opposition remains a fractious collection of political groups, longtime exiles, grass-roots organizers and armed militants, all deeply divided along ideological, ethnic or sectarian lines, and too disjointed to agree on even the rudiments of a strategy to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s government…..

“This is a manufactured problem,” said Burhan Ghalioun, the council president, in a brief interview outside an executive committee meeting last week. “Some independent people don’t want to join the S.N.C., but there is no strong opposition power outside the national council.” …..

Scores killed in wave of al-Qaeda bombings across Iraq – Wash Post (Asaad Alazawi, Ernesto Londoño)

BAGHDAD — A wave of bombings across Iraq killed dozens of people Thursday morning, security officials said, in a grim indication of the strength of the insurgency two months after the U.S. military completed its withdrawal….

Syrian opposition will ‘somehow’ carry out offensive operations against Assad, Clinton says

LONDON — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday that Syrian opposition forces will become “increasingly capable” of carrying out offensive operations against the government of President Bashar al-Assad….

The Syria Report’s Evelyn Aissa provides a roundup of international reportage and commentary on Syria with close to 100 links! (free access)
UN Accuses Syria of Crimes Against Humanity as Foreign Leaders Prepare for ‘Friends of Syria’ Meeting in Tunisia – Syria Report

Today, a report released by the United Nations and submitted to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, accuses the Syrian government of committing “gross human rights violations” tantamount to “crimes against humanity”. The report, derived from 360 interviews with individuals inside Syria, also charges that security crackdowns constituted state policy from coming from “the highest levels of the armed forces and the government”. The same report, however, also charges the Free Syrian Army, an armed element of the opposition, of committing serious abuses. To that end, as violence continues to deepen across the country, Syrian officials continue to adamantly charge that they are fighting against armed terrorist groups – an allegation now partially echoed in some parts of Washington, as a number of senior American officials claim that the terrorist group Al-Qaeda is behind some of the country’s violence. The same US officials did not publicly put forth related evidence. …

‘How to halt the butchery in Syria’ (Anne-Marie Slaughter, New York Times)

“The key condition for all such assistance, inside or outside Syria, is that it be used defensively — only to stop attacks by the Syrian military or to clear out government forces that dare to attack the no-kill zones. Although keeping intervention limited is always hard, international assistance could be curtailed if the Free Syrian Army took the offensive. The absolute priority within no-kill zones would be public safety and humanitarian aid; revenge attacks would not be tolerated.”

The U.S. and other ‘Friends of Syria’ still search for a strategy to oust Assad
Posted: 22 Feb 2012

Tony Karon writes: “It is time we gave them the wherewithal to fight back and stop the slaughter,” said Senator John McCain on Monday, referring to Syria’s opposition amid the carnage being wrought by the Assad regime’s efforts to quash a year-old rebellion. But McCain’s call is unlikely to be heeded by the Obama Administration or other Western governments as they prepare for Friday’s inaugural meeting in Tunis of a “Friends of Syria” forum established to coordinate an international response to the crisis. That’s because Western decision-makers are not quite sure just who the Syrian opposition would be — there is no single leadership that speaks on behalf of those fighting the regime on the ground in cities across Syria, and there are certainly signs that its ranks may include elements deemed hostile to the West. And also, because it’s far from clear just how arming rebel forces would, in fact, “stop the slaughter” and not intensify it.

The problem confronting international stakeholders as they grapple for a response to the slow-moving bloodbath is that there at least three different narratives playing out at the same time in Syria, each of them complicating the others. There’s the narrative of the brutal authoritarian regime confronted by a popular citizens’ rebellion that it has been unable to crush despite a year of slowly escalating repression — a crackdown that has wrecked the country’s economy and made it impossible for the regime to restore stability, much less regain its legitimacy. (Nobody’s expecting the constitutional referendum to be staged by the regime on Sunday to yield a credible popular mandate for Assad’s rule.)

Then there’s the narrative of sectarian warfare, in which Syria’s ethnic and confessional minorities — the ruling Alawites who dominate the regime and its security forces, but also the Christians, the Kurds, the Druze and smaller sects — shudder in the face of a predominantly Sunni rebellion in which they see a specter of sectarian retribution that prompts many of them to remain on the sidelines or support the regime for fear of the alternative.

And finally, there are the geopolitical stakes, as the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf see an opportunity to hobble their Iranian nemesis by helping their indigenous allies overthrow a Tehran-backed regime. Syria also becomes an arena for China and Russia to block the expansion of Western influence in the Middle East through toppling regimes. [Continue reading…]

New Opposition battalions take on overtly sectarian nature to combat Assad’s shabiha

The Yazid ibn Muawiyah Battalion announces its formation in Biyada, Homs. This video suggests the rise of anti-Shiite militias in Syria.

‘Yaz?d ibn Mu‘?wiya ibn Ab? Sufy?n: ???? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ??????  commonly known as Yazid I, was the second Caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate based in Damascus. Many Muslims condemn Yazid’s rule as contentious and unjust because he was appointed by his father, Muawiyah, and because he killed the Imam, Husayn at Karbala in an effort to stamp out the gathering Shiite movement that looked to the house of the prophet for Caliphs as opposed to the emerging Umayyid dynasty that had moved the capital of the Empire to Damascus.

Salafist Muslims, mostly living in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, in sharp defiance to Shia Muslim belief, maintain that Yazid was a just, noble, religious and administratively efficient ruler.

Husayn ibn Ali, the son of the forth Caliph and grandson of the prophet Muhammad, along with many other sahaba among the Muslims, disapproved of Yazid’s appointment to the caliphate, declaring it a usurpation of power and against the spirit of Islam. They rode forth to contest his rule and were cut down at Karbala.

The dead are regarded as martyrs by Shi’ah Muslims, and the battle has a central place in Shi’ah history and tradition, and has frequently been recounted in Shi’ah Islamic literature.

Mock Homs at Your Own Risk
The epicenter of Syria’s revolt has long been the butt of jokes. But Homs may get the last laugh.
BY OMAR ADAM SAYFO | FEBRUARY 17, 2012

The negative stereotypes about Homsis returned in force during the 11th century, when the Mirdasid dynasty recaptured the city and converted it to Shia Islam. Homsis very soon became victims of the polemical debates between Sunni and Shia clerics. The famous Sunni cleric Ibn al-Jawzi recorded many ironic narratives about the strange habits of Homsi religious officials and the supposed stupidity of their followers.

According to one anecdote, three Homsi religious students were discussing a hadith – a saying of Prophet Muhammad — about the parts of the human body. “The nose is for smelling, the mouth is for eating, the tongue is for speaking,” they concluded. “But what is the ear for?” As the hadith did not give the answer, they decided to ask their sheikh. On their way to the sheikh’s house, however, they saw a tailor patching a cloth. The tailor was cutting pieces of yarn and hanging them on his ear. “God has sent us the answer,” the students concluded, and returned to the mosque.

Homs has long been a bastion of resistance — first as a Muslim stronghold in the efforts to repel European invaders during the Crusades, and then as a base for Mamluk commanders’ war against the Mongols. But such heroism did not rid Homsis of their age-old stigma. Rather, many linked Homsis’ victories to their alleged simple-mindedness…..[This is a lovely article… read it all]

The Ordeal of Syria. Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Now nearly a full year into a terrible struggle between a dictatorial regime and a rebellion determined to overthrow it, what can be done? What follows is a range of opinions and preferences. This is the first of what we envisage to be a periodic online symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East. We will draw on the membership of Hoover’s Working Group on Islamism and the International Order….

INSTABILITY IN SYRIA: Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention – CSIS

….A number of countries – including US NATO allies such as France and Turkey – increasingly entertain the prospect of creating a “humanitarian corridor” in Syria, potentially along the border with Turkey, to provide relief to both the Syrian population and dissident groups opposed to the Asad regime. These calls are echoed by Syrian opposition forces both in and outside Syria, including the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Istanbul-based Syrian National Council (SNC).

These calls do not address the real world challenges of creating such a “humanitarian corridor”: joint and combined military operations to suppress Syria’s air defense network, the need to neutralize the country’s air force, eliminating Syria’s asymmetric deterrence by containing unconventional threats from long range missiles (potentially armed with chemical or biological agents) and instability along the Golan Heights. They also do not address the risk of eventually having to engage loyal Syrian ground forces (including large concentrations of Alawites) that see few prospects in a post-Asad Syria.

Some consider military intervention in Syria to be a potential next step in shifting the regional balance in favor of the US and its allies. There is little question that sustained military operations in Libya would have been impossible without American logistics, targeting, command and control and sheer military capacity. In the case of Syria, military intervention is similarly unlikely to succeed without US involvement. However, military intervention, in the Middle East, let alone near the epicenter of the Arab-Israeli conflict, always involves serious risks and the impact of the law of unintended consequences…..

Washington’s Syria policy is imaginary
February 23, 2012
By Michael Young, The Daily Star

The administration of President Barack Obama has often been ridiculed for what it describes as “leading from behind.” More often than not this has been an excuse for not leading at all, and nowhere has American vacillation been more on display than in Syria.

For instance, it is the United States that has lent credence to accusations by the Syrian regime that Al-Qaeda is assisting the Syrian opposition. Last week, the director of national intelligence, James Clapper, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he believed Al-Qaeda in Iraq had infiltrated Syrian opposition groups, and was behind bombings in Damascus and Aleppo. Clapper needn’t have made that statement publicly. Not surprisingly, the Syrian opposition read it as a sign of American hostility toward its aspirations

Politically as well, Washington has been all over the place. In an interview with France 24 just over a week ago, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, said that the Obama administration was looking for a “peaceful political solution” in Syria. “Even the Syrian people do not want a military solution to this crisis,” he said, before adding: “We believe [President Bashar] Assad should step down, but at the end of the day the Syrian people will make the decision, not the U.S.”

A few days later, Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokeswoman, sounded less affirmative. While also defending a political solution, she observed, “[I]f we can’t get Assad to yield to the pressure that we are all bringing to bear, we may have to consider additional measures.” To many people this suggested that the U.S. might possibly endorse arming Syria’s opposition if that became necessary. Evidently, the Obama administration – amid the carnage in Homs and elsewhere in Syria, and rising calls in the Arab world and even in the U.S. Congress for Assad’s opponents to be supplied with better weapons – feared that it would fall behind the policy curve.

There are no easy answers in Syria, but Washington’s trouble is that it has no strategy for the country. This is proving very damaging indeed, given that the Russians and Iranians do have one, and it can be summarized quite simply: Actively support the repression by the Syrian army and security services, bringing the opposition, or a portion of the opposition, to the negotiating table….

Nikolaos van Dam interview on Syria – “Any Western military intervention will be a disaster”….

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???? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??????. ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ?????. ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?? ???????. ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????????. ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ” ??? ???? ??????? ??????? ???????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???   “…..

We are pleased to offer members of the press a preview of an article by Joshua Landis from the upcoming Spring 2012 journal Middle East Policy titled “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013.” Click here to read the full article.

Dr. Landis (University of Oklahoma, Center for Middle East Studies & Editor, Syria Comment) believes that the regime’s chances for survival to 2013 are stronger than many think, for four reasons:

1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.

2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.

3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.

4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.

To read the entire article, click here.

The demonstrations in Mezzeh, Damascus, as shown above, suggest that the revolt has spread to the heart of bourgeois Damascus, an area many said would not be affected. The Homs repression is spreading revolt to new areas. The opposition is not being cowed. In this video police shoot into the air in order to frighten the women of Mezzeh, Damascus. It does not seem that security shot into the crowd, but the fear and anger is all too clear. It will grow.

[Correction] (A Friend wrote to say: “the demonstration was in old mazzeh, not the wealthy part, the part near the old hospital, the poor part.)

The Syrian opposition is gaining strength and spreading to new areas of Syria with each passing weak. Government action makes it stronger, as does government inaction. Assad faces a catch 22. He has no way forward. The opposition, despite its multitude of jostling leaders is developing new communication and activist networks all the time. The destruction of Sunni neighborhoods in Homs has outraged Syrians across the country. Growing lawlessness has dispirited those who would support the government. Inflation and economic hardship is overtaking everyone in a constant reminder that things will get worse and that Assad is leading the country off a cliff.

The “Friends of Syria” conference will be held in Tunis on Friday. It is still unclear which countries will be represented. One can assume that the Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey, Europeans, and the US will be there, as well as the SNC. Will the Free Syrian Army be invited to send representatives? Will other military leaders turn up?

US General Dempsey said that it was “premature” to arm the opposition. In all likelihood, Washington will want to go slow on supplying weapons to opposition leaders – after all, whom would it give them to? The SNC seems too divided and too weak. Also, Saudi, Turkey and the US are unlikely to agree on whom to arm. Most importantly, however, the US has been unable to control events in the Middle Easter countries that have gone through regime-change. Washington’s record of picking winners is dismal. Ahmad Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress did not work out. Hamid Karzai? Few give him long odds of surviving US withdrawal. Bashir Gemayyel did not do well in Lebanon, if one goes back a few decades.

Washington may be well advised to hang back from supplying more than humanitarian and communications assistance for the time being. It will get a better sense of which leaders are able to speak for most Syrians in the future. If it backs one leader or party today, others may emerge tomorrow only to feel slighted or to turn for help from America’s competitors. Washington will not be able to change boats in mid-stream. What is more, the success and growing strength of the Syrian revolution suggests that Assad is unlikely to win. Support for the Syrian opposition is a humanitarian issue but not a strategic issue, if one calculates in a heartless fashion. The revolution will win on its own. Who knows, Syrians may even be the better for it?

???????? ????? ?? ????? by Nikolaos van Dam in All4Syria.

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– ????? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ?
??? ????? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???????? ???? ??????? ????????? ??? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?? ???? ?????.

– ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ?
????? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ????? ??????? ??? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??????.

– ?? ????????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?
??? ??? ????? ..??? ????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ???…..

Ehsani on Aleppo:

Schools in Aleppo have been receiving bomb threats. Some have closed till march 6 (french school and Icarda). My sister pulled her kids out of the school on Thursday. Aleppo has lots of streets closed. Military and security everywhere. Ugly stuff. Just heart breaking.

Basma Qudmani speaks with 5 Israeli authors on French TV – this video has been circulating heavily on activist networks. Rumor is that it has been put out by Islamists within the SNC to delegitimize her and the liberals in the SNC.

She says approvingly that Egypt has an emerging civil society that has nothing to do with Islam. She says that Arabs need Israel’s existance.

This video is another expression of the tense battle being waged between the two wings of the SNC: Islamists and liberals. On Feb 15, Burhan Ghalioun’s term as leader of the SNC was extended by two months. He is a noted liberal, who like Qudmani has lived some three decades in Paris. It is noteworthy that the executive council of the SNC could agree to extend his term by only two months. Mechanisms for deciding on leadership are yet to be completely worked out. In the meantime, the liberals of the SNC seem to have the upper hand. Islamists put forward Haytham Maleh as their candidate. He is a human rights lawyer who has had a storied career defending activists in Syria. He has spend decades in prison himself and is fearless. He is in his 80s.

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Syrian opposition invited to Tunis conference
AFP

Syrian opposition groups will take part in an international conference on the crisis in Syria on Friday, Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem said, warning against an “Iraqi scenario”.

Abdessalem said participants at the Rome meeting of the so-called “5+5” states had agreed on the need to defend Syria’s territorial unity: “We don’t want an Iraqi scenario… We have to preserve the integrity of Syria.”

“I don’t think any Arab country is going to ask for military intervention (in Syria). European countries don’t want it either,” he said.

Referring to the “Friends of Syria” conference on Friday, he added: “We believe that on the 24th of this month, we shall send a strong message to the Syrian government.”

Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi said of the meeting: “It has to be inclusive. Of course the opposition has to be present.”

Abdessalem had said in Tunis on Friday that the SNC, the largest opposition group in strife-ridden Syria, would not be officially represented at the conference.

Trade with the US Falls 31 Percent over Sanctions – Syria Report

Syria’s Inflation Rate Doubled in December, 13-02-2012– Syria Report

Syria’s official inflation rate almost doubled in December, partially reflecting the steep increase in prices witnessed in the local market in recent weeks.

The Syrian Pound has remained stable since the beginning of February, trading at around 72 pounds per US Dollar in black market dealings.

Syria’s private banking sector saw a decline of some 13.5 percent in total assets last year although it managed to increase revenues and profits, largely on the back of foreign currency revaluations.

Poultry Farming Impacted by Revolution– Syria Report

…steep increase in the prices of eggs and chicken in the local market. Input prices, in particular for corn and soybean, which are used as feed for chicken, have risen. So has increased the cost of petroleum coke used for heating. One other factor that has impacted the industry is the current unrest. Indeed, most poultry farms are located in the Governorates of Homs, Hama and Rural Damascus, which are the hotbeds of the current popular revolt gripping Syria. …

According to some estimates, the number of people whose livelihood depends on the sector is around 1 million. The FCA estimates the average annual growth of the sector in the last decade at 15 percent. Last year, exports stood at around 1.24 billion eggs, or 35 percent of total production; Iraq is Syria’s main export market, the FCA report said.

2 judicial officials assassinated in Syria – LA Times

A judge and lawyer, along with their driver, are reportedly killed in Idlib. Across Syria, at least 20 are slain, including nine in Homs, the opposition says.

Syrian troops have massed around Homs as top US Officer says Arming Opposition Premature

The top US military officer, General Martin Dempsey, said any intervention in Syria would be “very difficult” and that it was “premature” to arm the unrest-swept country’s opposition movement.

And China’s influential People’s Daily warned any Western support for Syria’s rebels would lead to a “large-scale civil war”.

Activists and Syrian state media reported at least 14 people were killed on Sunday, adding to the more than 6000 people who have died in President Bashar al-Assad’s 11-month crackdown on dissent.

“Infantry troops arrived yesterday (Sunday) in Homs,” Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said by phone on Monday.

A Homs-based activist voiced fears of an imminent attack on Baba Amr, the main rebel stronghold in the central city, speaking of “unprecedented military reinforcements coming from Damascus”….

Tribal bonds strengthen the Gulf’s hand in a new Syria – The National
by Hassan Hassan,

Will the “tribal crescent” that extends from northern Syria to western Iraq and Jordan down to the Gulf, replace the Shia crescent? Underlying all the other complexities of Syria, ancient tribal allegiances that pre-date national boundaries add an additional layer of motivations…

details about the protest movement in Al Jazira show that the hold of the tribes remains strong. In the early months of protests, there was friction among the tribes on how to react. Al Jarrah, one of the powerful clans in the city of Al Bukamal, and a part of the Egaidat confederation, is led by a government official, who even armed some of the clan’s members to quell protests. This pushed another prominent tribe in the confederation, Al Dandal, to mediate between the government and young protesters, in an effort that failed. By then, some protesters had begun arming themselves and shooting at security forces

The chief of the Egaidat, who has influence across the tribes in the confederation, asked the pro-government leader to disarm his people and stop working with the security forces. Finally, tribal leaders on all sides agreed to prevent clashes with the security forces and to not interfere in the protests.

Other leaders have refused to take part in the protest movement because they feel it is their responsibility to protect their clan. Abdullah Ghadawi, a political editor for the Saudi newspaper Okaz who is from Al Bukamal, told me one tribal leader had said that he was against the regime but he could not endanger his tribe by fighting. For the same reason, heads of families say they stand by President Bashar Al Assad only to discourage their children from taking part in protests. A similar scenario plays out in Suwaida and Raqqa, where there have been few protests.

This influence will remain strong for the foreseeable future. Politicians may be drawn from the ranks of the educated younger generation, unlike in the past when members of parliament were almost all tribal leaders, but the latter will still be respected

Another possible trend that favours Gulf influence in Syria is the growing prominence of Salafism (as opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, which has strong links to Turkey). Salafism is increasing especially in tribal areas, partly because of the return of Syrians who have worked in the Gulf.

How the Gulf states will use these levers of influence remains to be seen, however. “Saudi Arabia has a limited understanding of the nature and diversity of the Syrian opposition,” said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “and risks espousing too closely the perspective of its tribal and Wahhabi interlocutors.” Riyadh risks overreliance on the tribes, which remain largely divided

But if these links are harnessed, the Gulf states’ influence will extend from the north of Syria to western Iraq and Jordan, creating a “tribal crescent” in place of Iran’s “Shia crescent” that today extends from Iran to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Video: ‘No NATO military action in Syria’

Syria ‘disintegrating under crippling sanctions’
19 February 2012

One of Syria’s leading businessmen says its economy is being crippled by foreign sanctions and that the government is slowly disintegrating.

Faisal al-Qudsi, the son of a former Syrian president, told the BBC the military action could only last six months and then there would be “millions of people on the streets”.

But he said President Bashar al-Assad’s government would fight to the end.

The 11-month uprising against Mr Assad has claimed thousands of lives.

Human rights groups have put the figure at more than 7,000, while the government says at least 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed combating “armed gangs and terrorists”.

The violence continued on Saturday, when Syrian troops fired on mourners during a funeral that turned into a mass demonstration in Damascus. Activists say at least one person was killed there and some 20 across the country.

‘Catch 22’:  Speaking to the BBC’s Weekend World Today programme, Mr Qudsi said the economy had been crippled by sanctions and that although Iran was sending money, it was not enough.

An Iraqi fighter in Syria’s civil war – Independent

In Syria, Opposition Struggles To Gain Foreign Support
February 20, 2012 – Stratfor
Summary

Despite several efforts to come together, Syria’s opposition groups remain fractured. There are two viable groups that the West could work with, the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Committee, but they have incompatible views on how to oust the regime and neither has the clear support of Syria’s protesters. Unless they can overcome their differences, the opposition groups are unlikely to receive the international support they need to overthrow the regime in Damascus.

Analysis

Since the beginning of the unrest in Syria, a propaganda war has raged between the regime of President Bashar al Assad and the various opposition groups. The Syrian regime has portrayed itself as united and strong and the opposition as radical terrorists. Meanwhile, the opposition has claimed that the regime is splintering and that the opposition is strong and capable of replacing it. Perception is important because the Syrian opposition cannot succeed in ousting the al Assad regime without the support of the Syrian people and foreign governments.

But the reality is that despite extensive efforts to unite, Syria’s opposition groups remain fractured. Of the 14 or more opposition groups in the country, only two, the Syrian National Council (SNC) and the National Coordination Committee (NCC), are being considered by the West as feasible groups to work with to bring about democratic change inside Syria.

Jon Lee Anderson, Letter from Syria, “The Implosion,” The New Yorker, February 27, 2012, p. 58

Before the observers left, hundreds of townspeople gathered in the main square to shout slogans and call for freedom.

Anas told me he knew that Zabadani’s moment of “freedom” wouldn’t last; the Army could come back in whenever it wanted to. “It will be a black end,” he said flatly. “But we will have to face it.” He added, “I’m sorry to say this, but the Alawites are involved in the repression, and there will be a sectarian civil war.”….

But at other times it was evident that the regime could not entirely control what we saw. Clock Tower Square, in central Homs, is where the first demonstrations were bloodily suppressed; reportedly, scores of protesters died there in April, when the Army attacked during a sit-in. When we visited, the large plaza was almost deserted. The bus let us off three blocks away, in front of an old café, but before I had walked a block the minders nervously called everyone back. A tall, burly man with a salt-and-pepper beard was bellowing, in English, “Why are you here? This is not where you need to be.” He waved toward the neighborhoods that were held by the rebels. “Go to Baba Amr, go to Khalidiya, that’s where you should go!” The minders tried to herd us back onto the bus, but the bearded man, who I later discovered was a prominent lawyer, had everyone’s attention. He shouted that terrible things were happening in his city. When asked who was responsible, he suggested that the regime was using thugs to intimidate people. “Army or security or military, I don’t know!” he yelled. “They are wearing sports shoes! You know a military wearing sports shoes?” He added, “I trust the men in uniforms with helmets and boots. I don’t trust these men with sports shoes.” Men in long black leather jackets appeared at the edges of the crowd: Mukhabarat or Shabiha. They stood close together and whispered, and some moved in toward the bearded man. A few old men emerged from the café and tried to coax him inside, but he shook them off. A reporter asked, “How is life here?”

“Life?” the man shouted, waving his arms. “There is no life! There isn’t life here in Syria.” Men crowded around, yelling angrily in order to drown him out. One of them called to us, “You can go anywhere you like in Homs! Everything is fine.” Another man challenged him: “You want NATO to come to Syria? Is that what you want?” There was shouting and pushing; the secret police swarmed. The bearded man called to the reporters, “Take my name! Tomorrow my name will be on the board,” referring to a list of Homs’s daily dead. Then the crowd descended into chaos, and he was pulled away….

Out on the street, a number of men had gathered, and one of them, a wiry, forthright man in his forties, said his name was Maher. Like the shopkeeper, he was a Christian. He had worked abroad for years on oil rigs owned by an American company, but he decided a few months ago to return home to protect his family; the rebels, he explained, were occupying houses, to use as bases from which to attack the government. A few days before, though, the Army had taken control of a few streets, and some shops had reopened; people could go to work, and their children could attend school. Gunfire broke out from the direction of Khalidiya, and Maher’s eyes roved up and down the street. “I am not a supporter of the President or a member of the Baath, my friend,” he pronounced. “But I have seen the truth.” Echoing the government’s line, he said that the rebels were drug dealers, criminals, members of Al Qaeda. He spoke of their torture and execution

houses, where they slit victims’ throats like sheep. Once, he said, an old man and woman were asked for their I.D.s at a rebel roadblock, and the two were shot dead merely because they were Alawite.

“The government should be tough,” he said. “I don’t mind staying in my house for three days to let the government clear all the houses, because they are hiding in innocent people’s houses.”….

Over the rooftops, I saw columns of black smoke rising from where the fighting was taking place. A government minder who had accompanied me was shocked. He asked worriedly, “Is Syria going to be like Iraq?” Until that moment, he hadn’t really understood the extent of the country’s problems; he confessed that he had never seen an anti- government demonstration. He asked, “Are we in denial?”

The same day, the diplomat in Damascus told me that it was too late to stop Syria from sliding into civil war. “We’re watching a country go off the edge,” he said. “This is going to be ugly.” He had hoped that there could be a negotiated settlement, similar to the recent one in Yemen—a “soft landing, whereby the Assads can get in a plane with all of their toys and fly to Dubai or wherever.” But Russia was stubbornly opposed; no one knew how to negotiate with the rebels amid the violence; and, until the opposition convinced the Alawites that they were not the targets of the uprising, a détente with the Army seemed unlikely.

“Most of the officer class is Alawite, and there are very few senior officers defecting,” the diplomat said. But the government could not hold on forever. With unrest all over the country, the Army was spread thin, and on the front lines food and fuel were running short. The troops were tired and increasingly demoralized. Even though the regime had cut off electricity, food, and medical care to rebel areas, the opposition was gaining confidence. Another diplomat in Damascus said, “Fear has gone from the people and it has not been reintroduced. People have come out on the streets, and they’ve stayed out.” He added, “I never had any doubt about the regime’s capacity for violence, but I didn’t realize how stupid its leaders were. We warned them that, once they started shooting people, sooner or later people would start shooting back. Even if they were to try a reform process, it wouldn’t fix things now. They’re now obliged to carry it off with repression.”

The newspaper editor in Damascus suggested, conversely, that the country was stuck with Assad. “The collapse of the regime will lead to atrocities, communities targeting communities, as in Rwanda,” he said. “You can blame whom you like, but this is a fact. The state has to continue functioning, because, if it doesn’t, then, as in Homs now, there will be sectarian violence. That’s why the decision was taken to go strictly, heavily, into the suburbs, with all the loss of life that we’re seeing. So this idea of Assad stepping down won’t happen, because he is the Army. The only way to save the country is to support the regime to change itself. All the other scenarios lead to civil war, sectarian violence, and a failed state.” Assad’s best hope, he suggested, was a combination of unrelenting violence toward the active rebels and greater reforms to persuade the moderates…..

In Damascus, I met Aimad al-Khatib, a Sunni businessman in his fifties who embodied the chaotic interplay of Syria’s factions. He had recently been abducted, in Homs, by three men who forced their way into his car at gunpoint. After making him hand over his money, his I.D. card, and his cell phone, they took the car and drove off. Khatib went to the local rebel authorities, and, in an hour, they caught the culprits. “They handed me the keys to my car, the money, everything except the cell phone, but gave me money to reimburse me for it,” Khatib said. “They showed me the men they had caught, and, after I identified them, they began beating them in front of me. The people that robbed me are the same ones killing people with I.D. cards that show them to be Alawites.” Khatib is a leader of the Syrian National Solidarity Party, one of four new parties granted legal status in December.

He told me that he had been part of an attempt to broker a dialogue between the government and the opposition, but had given up when it became obvious that the regime was intent on using force. He expressed a kind of cynical resignation. The Russians were supporting Bashar, in order to preserve their international prestige; Saudi Arabia was against him, in order to weaken Iran; Turkey wanted to bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power. Khatib hoped for “a real national-unity government, in which not even the Alawites will be excluded.” But, with violence spreading across the country, it seemed too late for that. “What will happen? ” I asked.

“There will be a civil war.”

“When will it begin?”

“It’s already begun.” Few people in Syria were so outspoken, and I asked Khatib if he was concerned about his safety. He smiled wanly and said, “If God wants to take my soul, let him have it.” ?

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