(Guest post by Aron Lund)

In the last post, Noah Bonsey had some very interesting remarks about the Syria Liberation Front (jabhat tahrir souriya), which is not just a very large alliance, but also pretty much the new mainstream face of the insurgency. It’s certainly more important than any of the rival leaderships of the Free Syrian Army (Riad el-Asaad, Mustafa el-Sheikh, Qasem Saadeddine, etc), although given the media focus, one could be forgiven for thinking otherwise. The problem is that while the FSA factions have leaders but no fighters, the Syria Liberation Front has a lot of fighters but no real leadership. It seems to be more of a political platform than an actual alliance, and the member factions go about their business much as they did before joining it. Of course, that could change with time.

As far as I can tell, however, it’s not true that the large Damascus insurgent alliance Tajammou Ansar al-Islam fi Qalb al-Sham (“The Gathering of Islam’s Supporters in the Heart of al-Sham”) is a member faction in the Syria Liberation Front. The Tajammou was originally formed by seven Damascus factions in August 2012: Liwa el-Islam, Kataeb el-Sahaba, Liwa el-Furqan, Liwa Ahfad el-Rasoul, Kataeb Der’ el-Sham, Liwa el-Habib Mustafa, and Katibat Hamza bin Abdelmuttalib.

I also thought that the Tajammou had joined the Syrian Liberation Front. What appears to have happened is that Zahran Alloush, the self-styled salafi sheikh who leads Liwa al-Islam, signed up for Syria Liberation Front membership on behalf of the Tajammou, only to find that this was opposed by other members. As far as I can tell, only Liwa al-Islam actually went into the Syria Liberation Front. The others remained separate from it.

Liwa al-Islam is one of the best known factions in Damascus, and appears to be quite large and active. It’s the group that took credit for the July 2012 bombing that killed Assef Shawkat, Daoud Rajha and the other regime leaders. It’s ideologically salafi, or at least likes to present itself that way, and has its strongest base in Douma in north-east Damascus, although there are affiliate factions elsewhere in the capital, and scattered through some other Syrian governorates. (It may have been quite badly mauled in the recent Douma fighting.)

About two months ago, the Tajammou seemed to split. Liwa al-Islam and Alloush were kicked out by the new Tajammou supremo, Abu Moadh al-Agha, and there were some exchanges of angry statements.

Another charter member, Katibat Hamza bin Abdelmuttaleb, which was based in Zabadani, close to the Lebanese border, was also edged out by Agha, and left the Tajammou. It instead joined the more hardline salafi Syrian Islamic Front (el-jabha el-islamiya el-souriya), which was formed in December by the Ahrar al-Sham network and its allies. It then absorbed a couple of other Damascus salafi factions and restyled itself Kataeb Hamza bin Abdelmuttaleb, and now claims to be active far beyond Zabadani.

So, unless something just happened to reverse these developments — which is possible, but in that case I’ve missed it — the current situation is that you have no strong Islamist alliance in the Damascus region, but several small ones, scattered all over the city map:

• The Syria Liberation Front, which in Damascus consists of Liwa el-Islam and its allies.
• The Syrian Islamic Front, which is Kataeb Hamza and its allies, most notably the Damascus-region affiliates of Ahrar al-Sham.
• Tajammou Ansar al-Islam, which is Kataeb el-Sahaba, Liwa el-Furqan, Liwa Ahfad el-Rasoul, and some others.
• Jabhat el-Nosra.
• Jabhat el-Asala wal-Tanmiya (“The Authenticity & Growth Front”), which is a smaller pseudo-salafi alliance.
• Groups loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Plus a whole bunch of smaller, indepdendent Islamist factions.

And then of course, there are lots of non-Islamist groups, which don’t appear to be much better organzied.

In other words: the Damascus insurgency is growing and will eventually overpower the prevailing order, but organizationally, it’s a total mess. These movements all seem to be cooperating pretty well on the ground – rebel infighting is surprisingly rare in Syria so far, which I think is one of few encouraging signs. But they are likely to become more competitive as time passes, resources become scarce, and the power vacuum grows. In Aleppo it’s already turning into a battle for the spoils, and when the local regime forces are forced out entirely, we’re likely to see some serious turf wars.

Of the Syrian Islamist alliances in general, I think the recently created Syrian Islamic Front is the thing currently most worth watching. Unlike the Liberation Front, they’ve managed to agree on a clearly defined ideology, and some member factions are already merging their forces and leaderships, as opposed to merely conducting joint operations.

On the other hand, the Liberation Front factions may win out because of superior backing, if they receive Western and Gulf aid in a way that the Islamic Front doesn’t. The Brotherhood is also aligned with the Gulf- and Western-backed Antalya military command, like the Liberation Front. Its a disciplined group, and much more pragmatic and sophisticated than any of the salafi formations, but they still suffer from a pretty thin presence on the ground.

I’m just finishing a long report on militant salafism in Syria and the Syrian Islamic Front, for the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, as a follow-up to my August 2012 report on Syria’s Islamist and jihadi factions. It should be out in a week or two – I will post a link here then.

Aron Lund

[Landis comment] The Syrian Islamic Liberation Front or Jabhat Tahrir Suwriya al-Islamiya is the main fighting force of the Islamic militias that are not Salafist. The Supreme Military Command, which announced itself on December 7, 2013 at the time that the Syrian Opposition Coalition was established in Doha, is an empty vessel. If the West wants to explore “centrist” militias to support, these are they. I hope that Sam Heller or Pieter Van Ostaeyen will translate some other their literature for us so that we can get a better feel for their ambitions and ideological commitments.

Noah Bonsey, who co-authored the ICG report on Salafi militants with Peter Harling, sends this note on Liwa al-Tawhid and my post: Syria’s Islamic Front Militias and How They Think about Minorities. He writes:

You noted that Liwa al-Towhid leader Abdul Qader Saleh is included near the top of the Supreme Military Command (SMC) hierarchy. This is true of course, but I have seen little indication over the last six weeks that this body amounts to anything beyond ink on paper.

I think it’s worth noting that Liwa al-Towhid’s more meaningful affiliation would appear to be its membership in “Syria’s Islamic Liberation Front” (Jabhat Tahrir Souria al-Islamiya), which it joined a few weeks ago. In addition to an assortment of small factions, this alliance includes Tajammu’ Ansar al-Islam (a powerful coalition in the Damascus suburbs), Saqour al-Sham (Idlib), and Kata’ib al-Farouq (originally Homs, now with affiliates throughout the country)—each of which is among the most active players in its respective area of operations.

Unlike the SMC, Tahrir Souria has a coordinated media campaign (see this link and this link), and its components refer to it as a provider of funds and a coordinator of local revolutionary police forces.

Many of Tahrir Souria’s leading commanders were included within the official SMC hierarchy, but it seems notable that their groups publicly identify with Tahrir Souria and not with the Supreme Military Command. It is likely that once expected external support for the SMC failed to materialize, the SMC’s components had little incentive to merge their existing networks, much less cede authority to the nascent hierarchy.

It is also notable that Tahrir Souria remains distinct from the Islamic Front (though their component factions do occasionally conduct joint operations). If we are to generalize a bit, the sum of Tahrir Souria’s material indicates a more pragmatic, ambiguously Islamist bent than that of the strictly Salafi Islamic Front.

I agree that at this point, Tahrir Syria are about as “centrist” as things get within the current militant spectrum. But I don’t want to overstate their relative moderation. There are Salafi factions within Tahrir Souria–most notably Liwa’ al-Islam, which is a key component of the Tajammu’ Ansar al-Islam Damascus coalition.

Yet if we consider the coalition as a whole, its ideological center is indeed somewhere to the left of Salafi–though where, exactly, is of course hard to pinpoint. Al-Farouq, Liwa al-Towhid and Saqour al-Sham can all be relied upon to shift their ideological tone depending on the intended audience. Thus at the end of the day, we are left with the common denominators of “Islamist” and, I would argue, “pragmatic.”

Best, Noah Bonsey

Nick Heras writes: Islamic Militias in Syria Appeal to the People by Providing Services, security and doing Good Works

It is great to see how much high quality work is being done to understand the incipient state of the philosophy of Islamic rule in modern Syria, from Sa’id Hawwa to Jabhat Nusra and the Syrian Islamic Front. We’ve been reading reports about different groups (Tawhid and Nusra in Aleppo Province, al-Farouq in Homs, Nusra and the Mujahideen Shura Council in Mayadin and near Deir ez Zor) seeking to establish some semblance of an Islamic state, and doing so with varying degrees of commitment to providing social services, security, and rule of law in the areas they control directly.

As it pertains to the most (in)famous groups such as al-Nusra and the Syrian Islamic Front, the future direction of their ideological development and potential civil authority inside of Syria will not only be determined by their fighting spirit, or ideological commitment for establishing a Caliphate or Islamic state in Syria. It is more likely to be determined by how they are able to appeal to a broader constituency of Syrians (albeit this constituency is most likely to be Sunni Muslims) in a highly incipient, or competitive, environment of social upheaval caused by war, internal displacement, targeted foreign assistance by various international actors such as the Gulf Arabs, Turkey, or the West, and their relative position and how wide-ranging their geographical presence is inside of Syria vis-a-vis competing opposition groups.

At the moment, there is no widely contiguous rebel-controlled region of Syria with a defined capital and a system of civil governance; there are pockets of opposition control and the beginning of collaborative networks of support such as the SIF, al-Nusra,Kata’ib Tawheed, and the Military Councils and the Local Coordinating Committees.The Islamist networks such as the Syrian Islamic Front and al-Nusra are clearly working towards building constituencies and incipient authority, and doing so along a model of incipient authority during war time that more closely resembles Hezbollah, HAMAS, the Sadrists, and Asa’ib al-Haq than al-Qaeda in Iraq. SIF, for example, is “comprehensive” and is building an Islamic society through “organizational” work with a “gradual, controlled approach.” The al-Nusra Front is more ambiguous, but some of its own commanders are realizing that they need to make statements such as was stated to Martin Chulov of the Guardian (UK) on January 17: “There were mistakes made in Iraq. Killing people on camera, being so visibly connected to sectarian fighting. These things cannot be repeated. We need the community and they need us.”

Syrian movements such as the SIF and al-Nusra, are already following in the footsteps of a HAMAS or Hezbollah, and seem to realize that there is a lot of appeal for a social organization that attends to the needs of people in a time of war by providing security (fighting al-Assad and policing rebel-controlled neighborhoods), administering social services (baking and distributing bread, supplying medicine), providing a semblance of rule of law (sharia courts, consultative structures based on shura, actual members of the organization for civilians to petition to, fighting corruption and promoting transparency), and fostering civil society (Islamic schools, active call for da’wa). They may never support secularism or the political rights of sectarian minorities in post-Assad state (especially for Shi’a, Ismailis, and Alawites), but these organizations are learning that the only means to their end is to hope for a “Hezbollah scenario” in Syria: legitimacy on the ground as a political, security, social, and economic authority for a clearly defined and numerous constituency of Syrians.

The Syrian Islamic Front: A New Extremist Force, February 4, 2013
by Aaron Y. Zelin,  WINEP

Another prominent Salafist militia has emerged in Syria, further complicating Washington’s efforts to find rebel factions that align with U.S. interests…. Read it all here

A Friend in Aleppo

The quarter where my house is in Aleppo has been without electricity for 20 days straight. The in-laws of my sister live nearby. They are still there. They decided to go to the electric utility office in person to complain. They were told that the electric post for their area was damaged and in need of repair. In order to get it fixed, residents needed to get together and raise SYP 15k or $150 per household. If they got the number up to SYP 4 million, then the post could get fixed. Needless to say, the coordination and ability to raise $150 from each household were beyond the abilities of the people of the quarter and they didn’t even try. Today they are close to their 30th day without electricity.

Khatib’s Offer of Hope

Khatib’s offer of talks with Assad’s government offered a ray of hope to many Syrians, not least of all the minorities. They believe, whether rightly or wrongly, that they are fighting for their lives. It is true that Assad has convinced the minorities that he stands between them and destruction. Khatib’s sensible offer helped undermine the terrible fear of many that this struggle is existential and will continue until one side has eliminated the other. To many Syrians who feel that they are mere pawns caught between two clashing giants, Khatib’s offer provided some hope of a kinder and saner future for Syria.

News Round Up follows

Damascus, the capital of Syria, has seen the worst violence in weeks as opposition fighters launched a major offensive. According to an activist, clashes erupted in the districts of Jobar, Zamalka, al-Zablatani, and parts of Qaboun, as well as the ring road. Damascus authorities have closed down the main Abbasid Square and the Fares al-Khoury thoroughfare. Fighting was also reported in the central province of Homs.

Lebanon

Najib Mikati discussed the impact on his state of the nearly 230,000 Syrian refugees. “The situation has reached dangerous levels that Lebanon cannot handle alone,” he said, “It is now necessary that Lebanon receives urgent aid so that it can handle the accumulating burden.”

Mikati has appealed to the UN and the international donor community for $180 million dollars per year — $370 million to date –to reimburse Beirut for its refugee-related budgetary outlays. Meanwhile, UNHCR reports that it is providing services to about one quarter of the refugees at a cost of $36 million. Last month, Washington announced it would provide $29 million in humanitarian support to Lebanon. Syrian refugees now constitute about seven percent of the population of the southern camp of Ein Hilwa.

Intervene in Syria -by Roger  Cohen – New York Times

…..This sounds good but will not fly. I agree with Brahimi that there is no military solution. Syria, with its mosaic of faiths and ethnicities, requires political compromise to survive. That is the endgame. But this does not mean there is no military action that can advance the desired political result by bolstering the armed capacity of the Syrian opposition, leveling the military playing field, and hastening the departure of Assad essential for the birth of a new Syria. Assad the Alawite will not go until the balance of power is decisively against him.

The United States does not want to get dragged into another intractable Middle Eastern conflict. Americans are tired of war. My colleagues Michael Gordon and Mark Landler have revealed how Obama blocked an attempt last summer by Hillary Clinton to train and supply weapons to selected Syrian rebel groups…..

Syria’s Regime Change Challenge
Interviewee: Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, February 5, 2013

…In the long term, it’s inevitable that President Bashar al-Assad will fall in one way or another. He can’t hold onto power while most governments and people in the region and most actors in the international community are piled against him. The power balance inside Syria, due to the the sectarianism, the presence of al-Qaeda fighters, the support Syria gets from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and, to some extent, even Iraq, will probably allow Assad to hold on to power in the short term. But in the long term, he cannot remain in power with an ongoing domestic military resistance, sectarian distrust, a hostile region, and global isolation pitted against him. The shocking development this past weekend of Moaz Al-Khatib, the new head of the opposition Syrian National Council, reaching out to talk to the Assad regime via the Russians and Iranians, Assad’s closest allies, is an indication that the opposition leader now realizes that Assad cannot be defeated on the battlefield at this juncture, as many originally thought possible…..

Syrian rebel raids expose secrets of once-feared military
Martin Chulov in Aleppo

Former regime strongholds are now being picked clean – and some are underwhelmed by what lies behind the perimeter walls….

Israel and Assad raise stakes on Syria
By Roula Khalaf — Risk of regional contagion grows

Der Spiegel: The Fight for Survival in Damascus
2013-02-04 By Susanne Koelbl

“We’re almost finished with them,” says the general. He has a broad jaw, and his gray hair encircles his head like a thick garland. From the roof of a military building behind Umayyad Square in Damascus, the general would be able to see columns of …

There are hardly any “terrorists” left in Daraya, claims the general, although there are still a few “pockets” here and there. The “terrorists,” he says, are hiding in basements “like rats,” building tunnels or in the canals. “That’s the pathetic condition they are in,” he says.

The general’s name is engraved in large letters on a shiny metal nameplate on the oak door, and yet he insists that his name not be printed. No one here — members of the military, the intelligence services or the Syrian security apparatus — says anything on the record.

The rebels have come dangerously close to the Damascus old town, and the general’s days could possibly soon be numbered. The Syrian civil war has been raging for 23 months and has claimed more than 60,000 lives. The rebels are fighting their way forward, but at a torturously slow pace and with many setbacks, repeatedly engaging the Syrian army in grueling battles. Assad’s military is holding its ground primarily in the cities, but the regime no longer controls vast rural areas in between, which are now often zones of lawlessness. The rebels have cut off many supply routes, and in some outposts the soldiers don’t have enough to eat and are forced to use their bullets sparingly….

There is a neighborhood in the western part of Damascus called Mezze 86, inhabited almost exclusively by Alawites. Mezze 86 is the home of modest regime profiteers, the home of hangers-on. Residents work for the economics ministry, the police or the army.

As civil servants, they earn between 10,000 and 30,000 Syrian pounds a month, or €100 to €300 ($135 to $400). Most built their small concrete houses 20 years ago, and posters of Bashar Assad hang on every corner. Assad, an ophthalmologist by profession who received only very superficial military training, apparently tried to look frightening when he was photographed for the posters, wearing dark sunglasses and a general’s uniform, and with a grim expression on his face.

The first car bomb exploded in Mezze 86 in early October. On Nov. 5, a large explosion ripped away an entire row of shops, killing at least 11 people and wounding dozens more.

Hassan Khudir’s little house isn’t far from the site of the bombing. A civil servant in the transportation ministry, he is wearing a corduroy jacket and tie, even at home in his small living room. But as an Alawite, he senses that his orderly old life is over. Khudir, his wife and their four children must fear the revenge of the rebels. “We will all die if there is no reconciliation,” he says.

But the rebels in Damascus are also in mortal danger, like the three young female students in the back room of a Damascus café. They are wearing white hijabs to cover their hair and neck, and they are unwilling to remove their long coats. They are traditional Muslim women, they say. They arrive with two young men.

‘Grapes of My Country’

All five work for Enab Baladi, an underground newspaper and website from the rebel stronghold Daraya, only 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) from Mezze 86. “Enab Baladi” means “grapes of my country,” a name that is meant to invoke the sweet grapes that once grew in the gardens of Daraya.

The authors of Enab Baladi have documented the destruction that has been visited on Daraya since the army identified the suburb as a terrorist stronghold in the summer. They write, photograph and shoot videos, documenting fighter jets as their drop their deadly loads over Daraya, tanks rumbling through the district and shooting indiscriminately into buildings, and how the army went from house to house on Aug. 25, 2012, dragging supporters of the rebellion and lining them up against walls. Hundreds were shot to death on that day, say the founders of Enab Baladi.

Almost 5,000 people were killed in Syria in January alone, according to new figures reported by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The dismal figures – which come amid a growing refugee crisis in the border camps which are overrun with people fleeing the conflict – underlined the urgent need to find some form of diplomatic breakthrough.

Syrian Opposition to Open NY, Washington Offices
2013-02-05  , By EDITH M. LEDERER

United Nations (AP) — U.N. diplomats say that Syrian opposition’s coalition is planning to open offices soon in New York and Washington. Najib Ghadbian, an associate professor of political science and Middle East studies at the University of Arkansas, will head both offices of the National Alliance and commute between the two cities, the diplomats said Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity because the decision hasn’t been announced publicly. The coalition’s presence in the U.S. capital and near the United Nations is expected to raise its profile in the United States and internationally, the diplomats said. Born in a Damascus suburb in 1962, Ghadbian holds a doctorate from the City University of New York, has written several books, and is a founding member of the Democratic Network in the Arab World.

Clinton: Syrian rebels getting ‘messages’ from Pakistan region known as Qaeda haven
by Max Fisher – Wash Post

About halfway down a New York Times’ story on Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state, the paper reports a disturbing new detail about the Syrian opposition. According to Clinton, rebels in Syria have been receiving “messages” from a part of Pakistan where al-Qaeda’s core leaders are believed to be hiding out:

She added: “Having said all that, [Syrian leader Bashar] Assad is still killing. The opposition is increasingly being represented by Al Qaeda extremist elements.” She also said that the opposition was getting messages from the ungoverned areas in Pakistan where some of the Qaeda leadership was believed to be hiding — a development she called “deeply distressing.”

It’s no secret that, during the course of the now two-year conflict in Syria, some very nasty rebel groups have emerged there. Some of those groups profess extreme and violent ideologies; one prominent rebel group, Jabhat al-Nusra, is reportedly linked to al-Qaeda’s Iraq-based branch.

But direct communication between Syrian rebels and the core al-Qaeda leadership holed up in Pakistan would be potentially far more significant for two reasons.

First, this would suggest that some rebels have already aligned themselves with al-Qaeda’s global jihad movement, which they could pursue in all sorts of awful ways if and when the civil war ends. That bodes very poorly for post-Assad Syria, with groups like al-Nusra a potential threat to more than just Syrians.

Second, it’s a bad sign because, after several bruising years for al-Qaeda, the group could renew its reach through a potential Syrian proxy. The Washington Post’s Greg Miller and Joby Warrick reported this weekend on why U.S. counterterrorism officials are so worried about Jabhat al-Nusra’s links to al-Qaeda:…..

In Munich, diplomats despair over Syria civil war

The 22-month-long civil war in Syria dominated the agenda at the Munich Security Conference. Top diplomats could agree on one point: There’s little chance that the conflict will end any time soon.…

At the moment, the international community has blocked itself in the Security Council. And by failing to act, the world is indirectly supporting the regime, according to Moaz al-Khatib, the head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition.

Indeed, Damascus’ scorched-earth campaign continues undisturbed: 60,000 Syrians have died in the conflict; 40 percent of the country’s infrastructure has been destroyed; more than three million houses are now uninhabitable. Thousands of Syrians are currently languishing in jails, and targeted attacks against civilians continue. Long lines of people waiting in front of bakeries have been cut down by mortars from regime troops. Even school children have been targeted by the regime.

Despite all of that, Khatib is seeking dialogue with the Assad regime, under the condition that all political prisoners are released. That could be a first step toward a political solution. But Khatib warned that if the regime does not take his offer, then the Syrian civil war would have an increasingly negative effect on the entire region.

“We Syrians love life,” Khatib said. “But we are not afraid of death.”…

Feeling of helplessness

A feeling of helplessness overshadowed the Munich Security Conference. Out of desperation, new proposals were made that are also highly problematic. Kenneth Roth, director of Human Rights Watch, said that if Russia uses its veto again in the Security Council, then the body could be bypassed.…

US Senator John McCain made an unconventional proposal. Disregarding all previous assurances that the NATO Patriot rocket batteries in Turkey were defensive in character, McCain proposed using these weapon systems to shoot down Syrian warplanes. The senator said that the batteries have a range that reaches to Aleppo. He suggested that the Patriot rockets be used to set up a safe zone and win back the trust of the Syrian people.

After Assad, Chaos?
By RAMZY MARDINI February 3, 2013
Op-Ed Contributor NYTimes

AS the Syrian revolution approaches another anniversary, Syria’s political opposition is showing signs of failure. Without a new approach, especially from America, the lack of a credible opposition will render a political settlement unreachable, making it harder to set Syria on the course toward a stable future.

Hoping for a more representative body than the Istanbul-based Syrian National Council, President Obama and other world leaders recognized, in December, a new opposition coalition formed in Doha, Qatar. But that 71-member coalition, which includes many S.N.C. members, isn’t willing to negotiate with the Syrian government, nor is it remotely prepared to assume power. It is facing the prospect of defections and, worse, disintegration. Narrow interests are taking precedence; Islamists are overpowering secularists; exiles are eclipsing insiders; and very few members seem to have credibility on the ground back home.

Some observers argue that if President Bashar al-Assad dies or leaves Syria, the opposition will be able to lead a somewhat smooth transition, as was initially the case in Libya after the fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. But given Syria’s demographics and divisions, violence is unlikely to subside during a transition, especially without a popularly backed interim government able to control armed groups.

Libya has six million people, who live mainly along the coastline of a country larger than Alaska. Syria has one-tenth the area of Libya with four times as many people, who are divided along sectarian lines and surrounded by regional powers vying for influence. Syria has also been mired in a far longer and bloodier civil war. Fear and revenge are more likely to play a major role in post-Assad Syria than post-Qaddafi Libya. Indeed, Syria is more likely to look like Iraq.

“The U.S. is empowering the Ahmad Chalabis of Syria,” argued one prominent dissident, referring to the Iraqi expatriate who presented himself, before the 2003 American invasion, as a leader with the political legitimacy to take over from Saddam Hussein. Many of Syria’s opposition leaders are acting like Chalabists: frustrating practical negotiations out of opportunism rather than principle, in the hopes of securing the spoils that will come when the Assad regime falls.

The coalition’s president, Sheik Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib, has emerged as a symbolic figurehead. A former imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Mr. Khatib lacks the experience to play the jarring game of opposition politics. And Riad Seif, a key American ally and longstanding dissident in Syria, is being marginalized. Both leaders have been sidelined by the expatriate businessman Mustafa Sabbagh, whose moneyed Syrian Business Forum is suspected of being a Qatari front group. Mr. Sabbagh is virtually unknown to most Syrians because he has long been based outside Syria and lacks the respect of veteran dissidents.

Syria’s minorities are also underrepresented. Syria’s Kurdish parties have not joined the coalition, and only three Christians are members. Two represent the Assyrians, but have spent decades in Europe; the other, the S.N.C.’s president, George Sabra, is viewed first and foremost as a communist. The majority of Syria’s 2.5 million Christians, who are ethnic Syriacs, aren’t represented at all. Bassam Ishak, a prominent Syriac, was barred from joining it. Mr. Ishak’s résumé didn’t include loyalty to the S.N.C., which has practically become a prerequisite for membership.

Only three women are members of the coalition. In December, Rima Flihan, who fled Syria in 2011, was removed as the head of the media committee. Her replacement was an S.N.C. member who lived outside Syria his entire adult life.

To make matters worse, the coalition’s bylaws are littered with provisions that emanate from the S.N.C., including one that prohibits negotiations with the Assad regime’s upper echelons — leaving peace efforts devoid of a critical ingredient. The recent signal by Mr. Khatib that he was willing to negotiate was promptly declared his personal opinion, revealing the coalition’s refusal to pursue reconciliation.

Early mistakes in transitions tend to have enduring effects. But the solution is not to form more umbrella groups, adding layers of vested interests that favor competition over cooperation.

The United States must make recognition of the opposition strictly conditional on the coalition being genuinely representative of the Syrian people, with clear punishment for noncompliance. And contact between the American government and opposition leaders must not be limited to the ambassador and his staffers; Americans often seem oblivious to the power that personal relationships can have across the Arab world. Finally, America must empower secular, moderate and independent political forces that promote compromise and moderation.

The best hope for Syria’s future is a political settlement, not armed victory. But without a truly representative opposition, that hope will remain elusive.

Ramzy Mardini is a Middle East analyst at the Jamestown Foundation and a former State Department official.

Syrian troops have aimed ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv

Four ballistic missiles “Scud” is aimed at Tel Aviv Syrian armed forces. As informs “Interfax” referring to the Iranian media, this measure was taken in response to the air strikes inflicted by the Israeli Air Force research center near Damascus.

Israel launched a missile attack on Syrian territory on January 31. According to representatives of the United States, to attack a convoy, transports air defense missile systems designed for movement “Hezbollah.”

Syrian authorities have said that the blow was dealt to the research center in the suburbs of Damascus, and called it a “blatant violation of Syrian sovereignty in the airspace.” Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel Karim said that Damascus considers the “answer that will surprise surprise.” He also said that he could not predict when it will be taken retaliatory measures, informing that the answer will be to prepare “appropriate authorities.”

Syria’s Secular Revolution Lives On
Islamist radicals may be gaining strength, but the spirit that sparked this uprising survives in the unlikeliest of places.
BY OMAR HOSSINO | FEBRUARY 4, 2013 – FP

…the worrying growth of jihadi and Salafi groups — but these forces are not the only players emerging in the new Syria. The secular and nationalist spirit that initially sparked the Syrian revolution is also still alive and well. Many grassroots activists and religious leaders are working to forge a country that is built on secular principles, against sectarian revenge, and supportive of equal rights for all its citizens. Even some of the sharia courts that have sprung up to administer justice in areas the Syrian government has abandoned contain surprising, nonsectarian trends.

Whether such a movement can survive as the uprising drags on is not yet clear. For the time being, however, these figures embody the sliver of hope that Syria may avoid an all-out sectarian war.

Grassroots movements

Among the best-known nonviolent protest movements on the ground is Tajammu’ Nabd, or the Pulse Gathering for Civil Youth, which defines its purpose as to “fight the regime and fight sectarianism.” It is led by Yamen Hussein, an Alawite originally from Homs, who joined the revolution in its earliest days. The relatively small, youth-led movement has served as a vehicle to empower minorities — especially Alawites, the bulk of whom have been hostile to the revolution.

With bases in secular strongholds like Yabrud, Salamiyah, Zabadani, and Homs, Nabd activists have taken on small but unique projects. On Christmas, its activists dressed up as Santa Clauses and gave gifts to the Christians of Homs. In protests throughout the country, Nabd sends minority and secular activists to hold up signs that read: “In Syria there are two sects: the sect of freedom and the sect of the oppressors,” and “Before you call for sectarian revenge, remember that you trembled when you witnessed the massacre.”

“A small proportion of the signs and chants in protests in parts of Syria are growing more radical and sectarian, so we want to be the counterforce and present our movement on the ground,” Hussein told me. “But the hardest work will come after we overthrow the regime, where we will try to keep our country from being torn apart.”…

The National Bloc attempts to bring together 100 of Syria’s most prominent, pro-revolution public leaders — including tribal chiefs, intellectuals, religious clerics, and scientists — to advance a message of national unity and reconciliation. The idea is that such elites can use their standing in Syrian society to push the country away from radicalism and revenge. The bloc advocates a return to Syria’s 1950 constitution as a starting point for the post-Assad period.

Husseini is looking over the horizon to the post-Assad transition to expand the bloc’s role. “There is too much fighting now, too much blood. It is hard to talk to battle-hardened fighters and tell them a message at this time,” he said.

Sharia courts

Impromptu courts established to dispense Islamic law might seem a prime vehicle for advancing radical ideas, but sometimes in Syria, they do just the opposite. In two sharia courts — one at the Bab al-Salameh border crossing and the other in the northern province of Idlib — these bodies are an antidote to the idea of collective sectarian revenge.

“There is no crime in Islam called being an Alawite,” Sheikh Abu Jamal, head of the sharia and law division of Idlib Council, told me. “As religious leaders we have the important role of being against vigilante justice, and we have spoken out against many of the youths taking matters into their own hands. Most people listen to us.”

Abu Jamal said that the purpose of sharia courts is to make sure that no one is punished without a trial. In his court, the accused is innocent until proven guilty; both a human rights activist and Islamic cleric are witnesses at the trial to advise and object to irregularities; and each accused is offered the right to a lawyer.

Still, the sharia courts are plagued with problems. Not all such courts are created equal, and the protections Abu Jamal offers may not be present elsewhere. There is no appeals process, and the system of choosing and electing judges is biased toward revolutionary justice. At the same time, however, the courts’ role in supporting due process and rule of law has acted as a counterweight to sectarian vigilantism in this transitional period.

Militant groups 

Some militant groups are also hostile to the growing radicalization of their anti-Assad brethren. In the northern town of Azaz, I met Capt. Bewar Mustafa, head of the Kurdish Salah al-Din Brigade, which largely fights in Aleppo. “We believe in democracy, equal rights for all, and representation,” he told me. “This is automatically against sectarianism. We are the Free Syrian Army for all Syrians, not just for one group, and the Kurds in this are a moderating force.”…

What I found most surprising was how many secularists and activists from minority backgrounds defended the jihadists. Ali al-Meer, a Shiite doctor and spokesman for the Local Coordination Committee of Salamiyah, a city whose majority is Ismaili, summed it up. “Look, I am Shiite, but these Salafis are helping us. Ahrar al-Sham is fighting the regime and delivering aid even to Shiite areas, even if we don’t see eye to eye on many things.”

One Alawite woman who wished to remain anonymous cast a more defiant tone: “I don’t understand why the United States calls Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist, while Bashar al-Assad is the only terrorist in Syria.”

Syria’s revolution began peacefully, and hopeful anecdotes of national unity are still evident on the ground. As the conflict drags on, however, the anti-sectarian forces are slowing losing ground to the radicals — but still remain Syria’s last, best hope for avoiding a sectarian civil war….

Israeli Strike Into Syria Said to Damage Research Site
By DAVID E. SANGER, ERIC SCHMITT and JODI RUDOREN.

The weapons research center has been the target of sanctions because of intelligence suggesting that it was the training site for engineers who worked on chemical and biological weaponry.

Al-Nusra Front: Seeking a Lebanese Base in Ain al-Hilweh | Al Akhbar English

Mashable: How Skype Is Helping Topple a Dictator in Syria
2013-02-05

The toolbox of the average rebel fighting in Syria is full of things you have probably never touched: an AK-47, grenades, sniper rifle. But it also has something you might use every day: Microsoft Skype. Skype is the go-to social network for …

Kuwait, ‘the back office of logistical support’ for Syria’s rebels
Elizabeth Dickinson, Feb 5, 2013

…This country of 2.6 million people has emerged as a central fund-raising hub for direct financial support to insurgents fighting the Assad regime and for humanitarian aid to rebel-controlled areas, which are said to encompass slightly more than half of the country.

The exact amount of lethal and non-lethal aid channeled through Kuwait to Syria since mid-2011 is difficult to determine, but humanitarian assistance alone is believed to run into the tens of millions of dollars.

Syria’s Fate Hinges on Whom It Hates Most: Sadjadpour and Maksad
2013-02-05, By Karim Sadjadpour and Firas Maksad

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — As Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad clings mercilessly to power, hopes that his regime will be replaced by a stable, tolerant democracy are being dwarfed by fears of prolonged sectarian strife and Islamist radicalism. The outcome will hinge in part on a simple question: Whom do Syria’s diverse rebels hate more, the U.S. or Iran?

Syria opposition ponders course as leader offers talks
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis,AMMAN | Tue Feb 5, 2013

(Reuters) – Members of the opposition Syrian National Coalition have called for an emergency meeting to discuss a controversial proposal by its head to negotiate with President Bashar al-Assad’s government, opposition sources said.

Bombing the Syrian Reactor: The Untold Story
February 06, 2013 Commentary

’60 Fighters of the Syrian Regime’ in Port Sudan Hospital
2013-02-06 05:31:55.618 GMT

Feb. 6, 2013 (All Africa Global Media) — Sources from the city of Port Sudan, capital of the Red Sea state, assert that 60 Syrian fighters supporting the Assad regime were admitted at a local military hospital on Tuesday. Some of them are “badly wounded”, they told Radio Dabanga. There are conflicting accounts concerning how the Syrian group arrived at the hospital. Some witnesses claim the troops flew from Damascus to Khartoum and from there to Port Sudan. Others are suggesting to Radio Dabanga they were transferred with a frigate to Port Sudan from a Russian offshore navy hospital based in Syria.

Syria Is Not Iraq
By Shadi Hamid – Atlantic

Why the legacy of the Iraq War keeps President Obama from doing the right thing in Syria.

Rebels train Syrian teens to become ‘killing machines’
6 February 2013 – al-Arabiyya

Bashar, aged 16, was signed up for training by his brothers. “I want to avenge the death of my father,” a rebel Free Syrian Army fighter, he said. With families willing to bring their boys forward for training, Abdel Razzaq’s academy does not need to go into forced recruitment.

UNICEF child protection coordinator Jean-Nicolas Beuze told AFP that, “unlike other conflicts, there is no active recruitment of children. The youth come spontaneously, encouraged by their families.”

Abdal Qadr al-Salih

C.J. Chivers of the New York Times in his, A Rebel Commander in Syria Holds the Reins of War, describes the virtues of the veteran commander of al-Tawhid, Mr Saleh, the most powerful rebel leader in Aleppo. He has a record of tactical success and is by all accounts revered by his men. Chivers explains that “For Western governments, outreach [to men like Saleh] is problematic, in part because of Washington’s policies, which… [are] shaped by fears of Islam.”

Not only are Washington’s policies shaped by fears of Islam, but they are also shaped by support for Israel. Many will hesitate to arm Mr. Saleh because of his enmity toward Israel. In this Arabic video, he insists that after liberating Damascus, Syria’s revolutionaries will liberate Jerusalem.

He conjectures that support for Israel is the principal reason that Washington has refused to arm his militia and destroy Assad. He posits that the US still backs Assad in its desire to protect Israel.

Abdel Kader al-Saleh and the Tawhid brigades do not belong to the Islamic Front; rather he belongs to the Supreme Military Command established shortly after the Syrian National Coalition was established in Doha in December of 2012. He is Assistant Deputy to the Commander-in-Chief for the Northern Region of the Supreme Military Command. See their order of battle.

A much clearer view of the ideology and organization of the Islamic Front militias is emerging thanks to the hard work of analysts like Sam Heller, Pieter Van Ostaeyen, and Aaron Y. Zelin.

Interesting characteristics of the Militias of the Islamic Front are:

1. They are Syrian nationalists and do not call for the unification of the Syrian Umma under a Caliph. This is different from Jabhat al-Nusra, whose help they welcome.

2. They adhere to a fairly dogmatic Salafist view of how Syria should be ruled. They insist on a “shura” council and abjure dictatorship. They do not call for democracy because God’s law and will must remain supreme. The state is to be theocratic but not intolerant. “The reference for all the actions of the Front is the Leadership Council (majlis al-qiyada). The Legitimate Body (al-hai’a al-shar’iya) is the legitimate governor of all the actions of the Front and its decisions are binding for the Front.”

3. The Islamic Front militias have a narrow attitude toward tolerance. The “avoidance of rule over Muslims through unbelief or heresy (bid’a)” suggests that the ghuluw [exaggerators or extremist sects] or gnostic sects, such as the Druze, Ismailis or Alawis may well be unacceptable and beyond the pale of religion, which is standard dogma of main-stream Islamic theology.

Here is  a bit from the Charter:

Non-Muslims:

1. Islam is the religion of the state, and it is the principal and only source of legislation. We will work through all legitimate and possible means to ensure that there is no law that contradicts the set and confirmed principles (al-thawabit al-mu’tamada) of Islamic shari’a.

2. Coexistence between the sons of one nation, however their schools [of thought] or creeds might differ. That entails mutual responsibilities and rights. It makes the principle of the sanctity of blood, money, and honor something shared by all and something upon which there can be no infringement except according to the rulings of Islamic shari’a and through [its] conclusive judicial rulings.

3. Justice and fairness are the basis of the relationship in dealing with non-Muslims. Difference of religion is not a justification for injustice against anyone.

4. All members of society can participate in realizing its general interest, however their schools [of thought] and creeds might differ.

5. The call for the integration and mixing of religions and sects is rejected according to [religious] law. Moreover, it contains a kind of aggression against those religions and communities and is a sort of religious and cultural adulteration.

[Landis commentary: The phrase, “Difference of religion is not a justification for injustice against anyone,” would seem to be liberal and suggest that all religions should be treated well, but in actuality standard Syrian religious texts view any creed other than the three “revealed” monotheistic religions as not religions at all. Thus they are not covered by the phrase: “Difference of religion is not a justification for injustice”.

In Syrian textbooks, required in the religion class of all schools and read by all Syrians, creeds other than Judaism, Christianity and Islam are not considered religions and are forbidden. The ninth grade textbook states that all other belief systems [than the revealed religions of the Abrahamic tradition], “contradict the principle of freedom of belief.” This is because “Islam gives freedom of belief only within the limits of the divine path,” or the religions revealed by God, i.e., Judaism, Christianity and Islam. People following “inferior” forms of belief that reflect an “animal consciousness” must “convert to Islam” or “be killed.” (9 grade textbook: p. 128).] Not too much ambiguity there.

Here is an excerpt from my article: “Islamic Education in Syria: Undoing Secularism,” which should have increased importance today because Islamic norms will take on new importance in Syria. The religion textbooks taught from first to twelfth grade have formed notions of identity in Syria.

Atheists and Pagans
At the very bottom of the hierarchy beneath the revealed religions of the “people of the book,” are the belief systems of the rest of humanity, who are categorized as “Atheists and Pagans.” Only one paragraph is devoted to them in the twelve years of Syrian schooling and it is tucked away in the ninth grade text under the subtitle, “Islam Fights Paganism and Atheism.”

It explains that “pagans are those who worship something other than God, and atheists are those who deny the existence of God.” Islam must fight these two belief systems because they “are an assault to both instinct and truth.” We are told that these belief systems “contradict the principle of freedom of belief.” This is because “Islam gives freedom of belief only within the limits of the divine path,” which “means a religion descended from heaven.” Because pagan religions were not revealed by God, they are considered an “inferior” form of belief that reflects an “animal consciousness.” How should Muslims deal with these peoples who comprise half of humanity? Students are instructed that “Islam accepts only two choices for Pagans: that they convert to Islam or be killed (9 grade textbook: p. 128).”

The Islam of Syrian texts does not have a happy formula for dealing with non-believers. Perhaps in recognition of this failing, the ministry of education has buried a mere six sentences on the subject into the middle of its ninth grade text.

Said Hawa

To understand how the Muslim Brotherhood defined Alawites and other gnostic sects of Syria as worse than unbelievers, one should read these two articles by Itzchak Weismann about Sa’id Hawwa, the Brotherhood’s principal ideologue of the last century.[They were first published here]

4. Shiites would also presumably be rejected because they do not follow the major recognized “(al-madhahib) among ahl al-sunna.” Shiites embrace the Jaafari madhab.

5. Christians and Jews would presumable be protected because they follow the revealed region, which was sent down by God. But they would remain second class citizens because, through their arrogance, they reject God’s final revelation, the Qur’an and Mohammad, the seal of the prophets.

A must read is this translation of The Charter of the Syrian Islamic Front done by Sam Heller ?@AbuJamajem

He writes:

The Syrian Islamic Front, a coalition of Islamist brigades working to topple the Assad regime. (Original document here, posted January 21.)

Most immediately evident is that the Front is essentially fighting a two-front war: it’s looking to topple the Assad regime, but it’s also aiming for the establishment and reform of Islamic morals in Syria. In that sense, the Front is fighting with one eye on what will follow the collapse of regime authority.

Among (many) other noteworthy points is the Front’s envisioned place for religious minorities. Non-Muslims are nominally accorded equal rights, but those rights are strictly circumscribed by Islamic shari’a. By my reading, the status of Shi’ites and Alawites is ambiguous. The document makes clear (largely through omission) that the scope of acceptable diversity in Islamic thought and practice is limited to variations on Sunnism. As non-Sunnis perceived as heretics, then, Shi’ites and Alawites exist outside that Sunni consensus. It is unclear if they would be accorded the same baseline protections as Christians or if they would instead be dealt with more harshly.…

Section Four: The Relationship between the Elements of Syrian Society

Muslims:

1. The unification of Muslims in righteousness and the condemnation of division, dispute, and extremism.

2. The enlargement of the sanctity of the Muslim. The avoidance of rule over him through unbelief, wantonness, or heresy (bid’a); rather, rule only through the guidance and evidence of the ’ulama (ahl al-’ilm).

3. The recognized schools of Islamic thought (al-madhahib) among ahl al-sunna are a great intellectual wealth left to us by the umma’s (Islamic nation) scholars. We adhere to them but do not cling to them fanatically….

Pieter Van Ostaeyen gives an overview of the Ahrar al-Sham , one of the main Islamist militias, which was responsible for overrunning the Sheikh Said neighborhood of Aleppo near the city’s airport this past Saturday – and presumably responsible for assassinating ex-Parliamentarian Ibrahim Azzouz along with his wife and their two daughters yesterday. Ex-Syrian Parliament Member Killed in Aleppo.

Ahrar al-Sham ~ The greater Islamist union in Syria
Feb2 by pietervanostaeyen

On January 31st Syrian Islamist groups announced they would unite in one single group; known as Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (The Islamic movement of freemen of Greater Syria)….

Syrian Jihadist Groups Take Conflict To Lebanon
By: Jean Aziz for Al-Monitor Lebanon Pulse. Posted on February 2.

On Friday, Feb. 1, the Lebanese army lost two soldiers, a sergeant and a captain, who were part of a strike force unit that belonged to Lebanese Army Intelligence. The two soldiers died during a clash between the army unit and armed Sunni fundamentalists in ??Arsal, which is near the Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley. Jabhat al-Nusra is now in Lebanon and that the group’s activities are about to become public…..Several press reports said that the town’s mosques issued calls for all gunmen to pursue the army unit and block its escape. In a short period of time, the Lebanese army unit found itself surrounded by hundreds of fundamentalists and jihadists. The long gunfight resulted in the killing of the army sergeant and captain and the wounding of eight soldiers. Although the jihadists knew that they were fighting Lebanese army soldiers, they captured the bodies of the two dead soldiers, as well as the wounded and the remaining soldiers and took them to Arsal’s main square in what looked like a jihadist ceremony that involved celebratory gunfire and other practices, according to Lebanese press reports….

The jihadist forces today have strategic depth that provides them with support, supplies and sanctuary. That strategic depth is represented by the Sunni jihadist groups that are fighting in the Syrian civil war against Bashar al-Assad. Second, the area where the incident took place is geographically linked to several dangerous areas. It is connected to the Damascus and Homs countryside, which is where an Al-Monitor research report predicted will be the main area of a Lebanese-Syrian war. It is also connected to the tense demarcation line between pro-Hezbollah Shiites in Baalbeck and Hermel and certain Palestinian armed locations.

A Rebel Commander in Syria Holds the Reins of War
By C. J. CHIVERS, February 1, 2013, NYTimes

Mr. Saleh leads the military wing of Al Tawhid, the largest antigovernment fighting group operating in and near Syria’s most populous city, Aleppo — a position that has made him one of the government’s most wanted men…Western governments have long worried that its self-declared leaders cannot jell into a coherent movement with unifying leaders, the fighting across the country has been producing a crop of field commanders who stand to assume just these roles…..

Mr. Saleh’s long-term intentions are not entirely clear. He says he is focused solely on winning the war, and promotes a tolerant pluralistic BY last summer, the fighting units near Aleppo had chased most government forces from the countryside and seized control of a border crossing to Turkey. Simultaneously, Mr. Saleh was emerging as the main leader of Al Tawhid. His anonymity ended.

He was soon seen as pragmatic and accommodating, an active commander who was able to navigate the uprising’s sometimes seemingly contradictory social worlds. A friend of the Islamists fighting beside him, he also spoke of avoiding the nihilism of sectarian war.

One of his subcommanders, Omar Abdulkader of the Grandsons of Saladin, a Kurdish fighting group, described how Mr. Saleh welcomed him and fellow fighters into Al Tawhid — though they were not Arabs.

“He has supported us since we have formed our battalion, and he bought for us some weapons and ammunition,” he said. “We’ve never heard or seen any bad acts from him — all good deeds all the time.”

He added: “Hajji Marea told us there is no difference between Muslim or Christian, Kurdish or Arab or even Alawi. We are all brothers.”
These days, when Mr. Saleh appears in public, his supporters treat him with reverential deference. In the summer, Mr. Saleh arrived at a meeting of commanders in another hidden command post. Several seasoned battalion leaders almost sat at his feet.

Ex-Syrian Parliament Member Killed in Aleppo
ABC News

A former Syrian parliament member and three members of his family were killed Sunday in a rebel-held area near the northern city of Aleppo… [Rebels] fired at Ibrahim Azzouz’s car in Sheik Said neighborhood near the city’s airport, killing him along with his wife and their two daughters.

Rebels captured the strategic Sheik Said neighborhood southeast of Aleppo on Saturday. It was a significant blow to regime forces because the area includes the road the army has used to supply troops.

News Round Up follows

White House rebuffed Clinton-Petraeus plan to arm Syrian rebels: report

A plan developed last summer by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and then-CIA Director David Petraeus to arm and train Syrian rebels was rebuffed by the White House, The New York Times reported on Saturday….The White House rejected the Clinton-Petraeus proposal over concerns it could draw the United States into the Syrian conflict and the arms could fall into the wrong hands….

Guardian via Tara

On Saturday, the US vice president gave his full support to the opposition stance that Assad has so much blood on his hands he could not be part of a transition government. Joe Biden said the White House was “convinced that President Assad, a tyrant hell-bent on clinging to power, is no longer fit to lead Syrian people and he must go”.

Washington Post’s David Ignatius: The hard work ahead of John Kerry in Syria
2013-02-01

John Kerry’s first task as incoming secretary of state should be to develop a coherent policy for Syria, where U.S. sanctions are proving counterproductive, the fighting around Damascus is deadlocked, the economy is in ruins and the country is U.S. sanctions are proving counterproductive, the fighting around Damascus is deadlocked, the economy is in ruins and the country is headed toward a sectarian breakup.

This grim prognosis for Syria is based on the latest reports provided to the State Department by opposition forces working with the Free Syrian Army.

The military situation in Damascus is described as a stalemate. The regime controls the city center and the northern suburbs, while Free Syrian Army rebels are strong in the eastern, western and southern suburbs. Corruption is spreading in the liberated southern suburbs. As Syrians pass through regime and Free Syrian Army checkpoints, “sometimes you hardly know which is which, and you lose track of what FSA are trying to achieve,” notes a summary of the report.

With these fluid battle lines, it’s possible to move stealthily throughout the capital. Main streets are guarded by checkpoints manned by troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, the report states, “but there is always [an] alternative that opposition [forces] can use to reach almost any point in Damascus.” I found a similar ease of movement in northern Syria when I traveled there with the Free Syrian Army in October.

As rival Free Syrian Army battalions recruit fighters, they “buy them with money,” notes the summary, explaining: “This is what [the extremist Jabhat al-Nusra] is doing to increase their supporters; now people become an open market, you pay, and you can sell your ideology. .?.?. People are easily signing up to something they did not dare to do before.”

Doctors who work in military hospitals report that most casualties are from the regular army, “which indicates that the regime is still keeping the 8k to 12k Republicans Guards as last resort,” the report says.

U.S.-led economic sanctions appear to have backfired, much as they did in Iraq in the 1990s, hurting poor and middle-class people while allowing regime loyalists to get even richer. The report calls this effort “the epitome of failure,” explaining: “The regime is capable of bypassing most sanctions by using non-U.S. and non-Western productions. .?.?. High-ranking regime figures have sophisticated networks to channel and move their large accounts.”

“It’s the Syrian people who do not have the means and the connections to bypass these sanctions,” the report continues. “These conditions have produced the largest transfer of wealth from the people to the government supporters. Under the current shortages and rising prices, the only businessmen who can sustain a profitable business are the ones who have military might at their disposal to protect their convoys. .?.?. The middle class and most of the wealthy have lost their cash flow.”

The Assad regime is rationing access to fuel and electricity to reward friends and punish enemies. “The number of hours [of electricity] each neighborhood receives is directly proportional to their level of support for the government. .?.?. Lucky ones get 18 hours of power every day. Not-so-lucky ones get 3 hours of power every day, defiant ones get no power or cellphone coverage at all.”

The U.S.-led embargo on imports of diesel fuel is also “very ineffective,” the report explains. “Of course the military gets first dibs on it, and the civilians bid up the price of what is left.” Desperate for heating fuel, poor people are burning plastic and tree leaves.

U.S. policy to deal with the Syria disaster has been idling for months, as the administration waited out the presidential election and then the appointment of new secretaries of state and defense and a new CIA director. Kerry is seen as the person most likely to galvanize a clearer, tougher U.S. policy, but President Obama is said to be skeptical, asking, “Can we make a difference?,” in a recent interview with the New Republic.

Rebel military sources argue that the most effective step the United States could take would be to train hundreds of elite commando forces, which would be well-armed and have the strong command-and-control that has generally been lacking in the Free Syrian Army. These disciplined paramilitary forces, like groups the CIA has trained in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan, could shift the balance on the ground — away from the Assad forces but also away from the extremist Jabhat al-Nusra.

“Many people now have lost hope with everything,” writes one of my Syrian sources. “Many people now hate Assad, but they hate the FSA as well. They just want a way out.”

Syria Considers Taking Up Dialogue With Opposition
By: Antoun Issa for Al-Monitor. and Antoun Issa Posted on February 1.

The Syrian government may be receptive to opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib’s offer for dialogue earlier in the week, with one official calling it a “positive change.”

Syrian official sources are considering taking up the offer for talks with opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib, head of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Antoun Issa reports from Damascus.

Khatib — head of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces — surprised colleagues with a public announcement on his Facebook page on Wednesday, Jan. 30, offering dialogue with the Syrian regime.

The Syrian National Council (SNC), a member of the coalition, quickly rejected Khatib’s call, but regime sources have not ruled out dialogue with Khatib.

“There’s been no official statement from the regime, but some individuals within the regime are saying ‘OK, why not?’,” a Syrian government official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity….

Robin Yassin-Kassab on the unfolding al-Khatib strategy: “Assad’s scorched-earth policy precludes real negotiations”

Khatib told Reuters in Munich: “The fighters have high morale and they are making daily advances.” …

Suddenly It Looks Like Bashar Al-Assad Could Win The Syrian War
Michael Kelley | Jan. 29, 2013 | Business insider

Many of the latest reports out of Syria indicate that President Bashar al-Assad has regained the upper hand against the rebels.

And the UN special envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said as much on Tuesday when he acknowledged that the regime “may be able to hold onto power for now.”

Assad reportedly told visitors that the Syrian army has “regained the initiative on the ground to a very high degree and achieved important results” as “armed groups received several hard blows recently,” according to Lebanese daily Al Akbhar.

Akbhar’s report makes it sound like Assad regime’s new tactics — leaving non-significant areas only to bomb them and force the population to live under rebel rule without basic necessities — are going according to plan. Assad reportedly said the regime has “stopped fighters from controlling whole [provinces]” and all of the key strategic points around Damascus have “remained safe, especially the airport road.”

There are also reports that the Syrian Army has launched counteroffensives in the north in Homs and around Hamas as rebels struggle to resist because of a lack of ammunition. Meanwhile rebels in the northeast are clashing with Kurdish rebels — an example of rebel infighting that Assad is increasingly counting on.

The changes on the ground forced French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius to acknowledge last week that there are no signs that Assad is about to be overthrown, which is a significant backtrack from last month when he said he thought “the end is nearing for Bashar al-Assad.”…

On the other hand, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev recently said Assad’s chances of staying in power are “shrinking by the day,” and Martin Chulov of The Guardian reported that rebels are now camping out in the hills above Assad’s ancestral homeland and sanctuary.

Furthermore, Al Arabiya reported that “Assad’s mother Aniseh Makhlouf and other members of his inner circle have fled to the United Arab Emirates [UAE].”

So perhaps Assad remains defiant and a little crazy because he knows, as a Russian diplomat said last month, that he will be killed by his own people or the opposition unless he successfully puts down the revolution.

But maybe his newfound aplomb comes from the fact that rebels appear much less capable of toppling him right now, and the West knows it.

The Consequences of Intervening in Syria
January 31, 2013 | Stratfor By Scott Stewart
Vice President of Analysis

The French military’s current campaign to dislodge jihadist militants from northern Mali and the recent high-profile attack against a natural gas facility in Algeria are both directly linked to the foreign intervention in Libya that overthrew the Gadhafi regime. There is also a strong connection between these events and foreign powers’ decision not to intervene in Mali when the military conducted a coup in March 2012. The coup occurred as thousands of heavily armed Tuareg tribesmen were returning home to northern Mali after serving in Moammar Gadhafi’s military, and the confluence of these events resulted in an implosion of the Malian military and a power vacuum in the north. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and other jihadists were able to take advantage of this situation to seize power in the northern part of the African nation.

As all these events transpire in northern Africa, another type of foreign intervention is occurring in Syria. Instead of direct foreign military intervention, like that taken against the Gadhafi regime in Libya in 2011, or the lack of intervention seen in Mali in March 2012, the West — and its Middle Eastern partners — have pursued a middle-ground approach in Syria. That is, these powers are providing logistical aid to the various Syrian rebel factions but are not intervening directly.
Just as there were repercussions for the decisions to conduct a direct intervention in Libya and not to intervene in Mali, there will be repercussions for the partial intervention approach in Syria. Those consequences are becoming more apparent as the crisis drags on.

Intervention in Syria

For more than a year now, countries such as the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and European states have been providing aid to the Syrian rebels. Much of this aid has been in the form of humanitarian assistance, providing things such as shelter, food and medical care for refugees. Other aid has helped provide the rebels with non-lethal military supplies such as radios and ballistic vests. But a review of the weapons spotted on the battlefield reveals that the rebels are also receiving an increasing number of lethal supplies.
Visit our Syria page for related analysis, videos, situation reports and maps.

For example, there have been numerous videos released showing Syrian rebels using weapons such as the M79 Osa rocket launcher, the RPG-22, the M-60 recoilless rifle and the RBG-6 multiple grenade launcher. The Syrian government has also released videos of these weapons after seizing them in arms caches. What is so interesting about these weapons is that they were not in the Syrian military’s inventory prior to the crisis, and they all likely were purchased from Croatia. We have also seen many reports and photos of Syrian rebels carrying Austrian Steyr Aug rifles, and the Swiss government has complained that Swiss-made hand grenades sold to the United Arab Emirates are making their way to the Syrian rebels.

With the Syrian rebel groups using predominantly second-hand weapons from the region, weapons captured from the regime, or an assortment of odd ordnance they have manufactured themselves, the appearance and spread of these exogenous weapons in rebel arsenals over the past several months is at first glance evidence of external arms supply. The appearance of a single Steyr Aug or RBG-6 on the battlefield could be an interesting anomaly, but the variety and concentration of these weapons seen in Syria are well beyond the point where they could be considered coincidental.

This means that the current level of external intervention in Syria is similar to the level exercised against the Soviet Union and its communist proxies following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The external supporters are providing not only training, intelligence and assistance, but also weapons — exogenous weapons that make the external provision of weapons obvious to the world. It is also interesting that in Syria, like Afghanistan, two of the major external supporters are Washington and Riyadh — though in Syria they are joined by regional powers such as Turkey, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, rather than Pakistan.

In Afghanistan, the Saudis and the Americans allowed their partners in Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency to determine which of the myriad militant groups in Afghanistan received the bulk of the funds and weapons they were providing. This resulted in two things. First, the Pakistanis funded and armed groups that they thought they could best use as surrogates in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. Second, they pragmatically tended to funnel cash and weapons to the groups that were the most successful on the battlefield — groups such as those led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose effectiveness on the battlefield was tied directly to their zealous theology that made waging jihad against the infidels a religious duty and death during such a struggle the ultimate accomplishment.

A similar process has been taking place for nearly two years in Syria. The opposition groups that have been the most effective on the battlefield have tended to be the jihadist-oriented groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra. Not surprisingly, one reason for their effectiveness was the skills and tactics they learned fighting the coalition forces in Iraq. Yet despite this, the Saudis — along with the Qataris and the Emiratis — have been arming and funding the jihadist groups in large part because of their success on the battlefield. As my colleague Kamran Bokhari noted in February 2012, the situation in Syria was providing an opportunity for jihadists, even without external support. In the fractured landscape of the Syrian opposition, the unity of purpose and battlefield effectiveness of the jihadists was in itself enough to ensure that these groups attracted a large number of new recruits.

But that is not the only factor conducive to the radicalization of Syrian rebels. First, war — and particularly a brutal, drawn-out war — tends to make extremists out of the fighters involved in it. Think Stalingrad, the Cold War struggles in Central America or the ethnic cleansing in the Balkans following the dissolution of Yugoslavia; this degree of struggle and suffering tends to make even non-ideological people ideological. In Syria, we have seen many secular Muslims become stringent jihadists. Second, the lack of hope for an intervention by the West removed any impetus for maintaining a secular narrative. Many fighters who had pinned their hopes on NATO were greatly disappointed and angered that their suffering was ignored. It is not unusual for Syrian fighters to say something akin to, “What has the West done for us? We now have only God.”

When these ideological factors were combined with the infusion of money and arms that has been channeled to jihadist groups in Syria over the past year, the growth of Syrian jihadist groups accelerated dramatically. Not only are they a factor on the battlefield today, but they also will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.

The Saudi Gambit

Despite the jihadist blowback the Saudis experienced after the end of the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan — and the current object lesson of the jihadists Syria sent to fight U.S. forces in Iraq now leading groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra — the Saudi government has apparently calculated that its use of jihadist proxies in Syria is worth the inherent risk.

There are some immediate benefits for Riyadh. First, the Saudis hope to be able to break the arc of Shiite influence that reaches from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Having lost the Sunni counterweight to Iranian power in the region with the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the installation of a Shiite-led government friendly to Iran, the Saudis view the possibility of installing a friendly Sunni regime in Syria as a dramatic improvement to their national security.

Supporting the jihad in Syria as a weapon against Iranian influence also gives the Saudis a chance to burnish their Islamic credentials internally in an effort to help stave off criticism that they are too secular and Westernized. It allows the Saudi regime the opportunity to show that it is helping Muslims under assault by the vicious Syrian regime.

Supporting jihadists in Syria also gives the Saudis an opportunity to ship their own radicals to Syria, where they can fight and possibly die. With a large number of unemployed, underemployed and radicalized young men, the jihad in Syria provides a pressure valve similar to the past struggles in Iraq, Chechnya, Bosnia and Afghanistan. The Saudis are not only trying to winnow down their own troubled youth; we have received reports from a credible source that the Saudis are also facilitating the travel of Yemeni men to training camps in Turkey, where they are trained and equipped before being sent to Syria to fight. The reports also indicate that the young men are traveling for free and receiving a stipend for their service. These young radicals from Saudi Arabia and Yemen will even further strengthen the jihadist groups in Syria by providing them with fresh troops.

The Saudis are gaining temporary domestic benefits from supporting jihad in Syria, but the conflict will not last forever, nor will it result in the deaths of all the young men who go there to fight. This means that someday the men who survive will come back home, and through the process we refer to as “tactical Darwinism” the inept fighters will have been weeded out, leaving a core of competent militants that the Saudis will have to deal with.

But the problems posed by jihadist proxies in Syria will have effects beyond the House of Saud. The Syrian jihadists will pose a threat to the stability of Syria in much the same way the Afghan groups did in the civil war they launched for control of Afghanistan after the fall of the Najibullah regime. Indeed, the violence in Afghanistan got worse after Najibullah’s fall in 1992, and the suffering endured by Afghan civilians in particular was egregious.

Now we are seeing that the jihadist militants in Libya pose a threat not only to the Libyan regime — there are serious problems in eastern Libya — but also to foreign interests in the country, as seen in the attack on the British ambassador and the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi. Moreover, the events in Mali and Algeria in recent months show that Libya-based militants and the weapons they possess also pose a regional threat. Similar long-lasting and wide-ranging repercussions can be expected to flow from the intervention in Syria.

Syrian opposition says it is ready for conditional peace talks
Coalition is prepared to negotiate with regime after UN backs its position that Assad will have no role in transitional government
Julian Borger in Munich and Harriet Sherwood in Jerusalem
The Guardian, Friday 1 February 2013

A girl tries on a donated jacket as Syrians arrive at Za’atari refugee camp in Mafrq, Jordan, which is struggling to cope with the influx. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty

The Syrian opposition has said it is ready for exploratory peace talks with the regime after gaining UN backing for its position that Bashar al-Assad himself “would have no role” in a transitional government.

The developments served to increase the isolation of Russia which remains a staunch backer of the regime in Damascus, and has insisted that Assad stay in place through any future transition to democracy. As senior officials arrived in Munich for a security conference this week, it was unclear on Friday night whether the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, would join the US vice-president, Joseph Biden, and the UN special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, in meeting the opposition National Coalition leader, Moaz al-Khatib.

Despite Syrian opposition claims that Lavrov would take part in a four-way meeting, one of his deputies, Gennady Gatilov, said there were no plans for such a meeting.

Khatib arrived in Munich having survived a challenge to his leadership from Islamists inside the coalition, who objected to his offer, first made on his personal Facebook page, to talk to the regime while Assad remained in power. The objection had been that Assad had to leave office before talks could begin but Khatib defended himself against criticism at an emergency coalition meeting in Cairo on Thursday, saying that the talks would remain conditional on the release of thousands of political prisoners.

The Munich talks will take place as the conflict showed its potential for escalating into a regional conflagration. Israeli warplanes flew over Lebanon again on Friday, two days after air strikes inside Syrian territory, according to a UN official.

Khatib’s statement was welcomed by the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, who called for “a credible process that would lead to a real change, a clear break from the past”. A UN source added that the opposition would now have to “walk the walk” in demonstrating its readiness to talk.

However, the opposition and its western supporters won a significant victory in their stand-off with Moscow when Brahimi backed their position that Assad could not participate in any transitional government that might result from peace talks. At a meeting in Geneva last year, western governments and Russia came to an agreement on transition that fudged that critical issue. It said a transitional government had to be chosen “by mutual consent”.

Michael Lipin ? story: ICRC says it’s considering delivering aid to Syria through cross-border operations, not just via Damascua https://bitly.com/YjRdqt

Jerusalem Post: ‘TIME’: IAF raids in Syria targeted multiple targets
2013-02-01

IAF raids overnight Tuesday struck multiple targets in Syria, Time magazine reported on Friday, citing Western intelligence officials. Syria on Wednesday publicly accused Israel of striking a scientific research center northwest of Damascus, denying … Time quoted a Western intelligence official as saying that the IAF had targeted at least one or two more targets overnight Tuesday and that the US had given Israel a green light to carry out additional strikes.

Patriot Missiles Arrive in Turkey: How They Affect the Syria Equation
By Piotr Zalewski / Gaziantep, TurkeyFeb. 01, 2013

US ready to hold direct talks with Iran, says Joe Biden

The United States is ready to hold direct talks with Iran if it is serious about negotiations, Vice President Joe Biden said yesterday, backing bilateral contacts that many see as crucial to easing an international…

Roundup: Iran urges “Syrian-Syrian resolution” to Syria crisis
2013-02-03  (Xinhua)

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar  Salehi said here on Sunday that Iran supports a “Syrian-Syrian  resolution” to the ongoing crisis in Syria, and the opposition’s  willingness to negotiate with the Syrian government is “a good  step forward”.

Sunni Protesters Hold Antigoverment Rallies in Iraq
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, February 1, 2013

Tens of thousands of Sunni protesters blocked a major highway in western Iraq on Friday, as a group affiliated with Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq, called on Sunnis to take up arms against the Shiite-led government. Minority Sunnis complain of official discrimination against them, and the arrests of a Sunni politician’s bodyguards in December set off weekly protests. The main rallies on Friday took place in Falluja and Ramadi. Protesters also marched in Baghdad and Samarra. Friday’s rallies were among the largest since the protests began.

BN 02/03 11:16 *PRINCE TURKI SAYS U.S. ACTS LIKE PUSSY CAT IN MIDDLE EAST
BN 02/03 11:15 *SAUDI PRINCE TURKI SPEAKS AT MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE
BN 02/03 11:15 *PRINCE TURKI SAYS U.S. CAN’T LEAD FROM BEHIND IN MIDDLE EAST

BN 02/03 11:11 *MCCAIN CALLS FOR SYRIAN NO-FLY ZONE OR STRIKING JETS ON GROUND

BN 02/03 11:02 *DAVUTOGLU SAYS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONVINCE ASSAD TO STOP KILLING
BN 02/03 11:01 *DAVUTOGLU SAYS `IRRESPONSIBLE’ SYRIAN LEADERS COMMIT WAR CRIMES

BN 02/03 10:49 *AL-THANI: ISRAEL’S `BOMBING OF SYRIA’ ADDS `FUEL TO FIRE’
BN 02/03 10:47 *AL-THANI SAYS SAYS ASSAD IS JUST TRYING TO BUY TIME
BN 02/03 10:46 *QATARI PRIME MINISTER AL-THANI SPEAKING IN MUNICH
BN 02/03 10:46 *AL-THANI SAYS UN SECURITY COUNCIL REPONSIBLE FOR SYRIA TRAGEDY
BN 02/03 09:56 *SALEHI SAYS ASSAD TOLD HIM HE’S READY TO HOLD ELECTIONS

BN 02/03 09:45 *SALEHI SAYS IRANIAN TALKS WITH SYRIAN OPPOSITION WILL CONTINUE
BN 02/03 09:44 *SALEHI SAYS OPPOSITION-SYRIA REGIME MUST FORM INTERIM GOVT
BN 02/03 09:43 *SALEHI SAYS PRIORITY MUST BE SYRIAN GOVT-OPPOSITION TALKS

BN 02/03 08:25 *BARAK SAYS ISRAEL DOESN’T WANT ADVANCED WEAPONS IN LEBANON

BN 02/03 08:08 *BARAK SAYS ASSAD WILL FALL VERY SOON
BN 02/03 08:07 *BARAK SAYS `COMING FALL OF ASSAD’ WILL BE BLOW TO IRAN

President Obama announced a new round of humanitarian assistance, an additional $155 million to provide for the urgent and pressing needs of civilians in Syria and refugees forced to flee the violence of the Assad regime. This brings America’s contribution to date to $365 million, making the United States the largest single donor of humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people.

Lakhdar Brahim of UN

Syria is being destroyed,” Lakhdar Brahimi, the joint U.N.-Arab League envoy to Syria, said after closed-door consultations with the Security Council.

Brahimi blamed both Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government and the Western-backed opposition forces.

“Objectively, they are cooperating to destroy Syria. Syria is being destroyed bit by bit. And in destroying Syria, the region is being pushed into a situation that is extremely bad, and extremely important for the entire world,” Brahimi said….”You may have seen that the two parties are maybe a little more embarrassed to say that ‘We’re going to achieve victory next week.’ And both sides have started to say, ‘If there is a political solution, perhaps we are willing to listen, provided that political solution will give us 100 percent of what we want.'”

United Nations reported a sharp increase in the number of refugees known officially to have fled Syria, increasing the total in neighboring countries to more than 700,000 from 500,000 in December.

Both Sides in Syria Trade Blame for Scores of Killings in Aleppo

People gathered at the banks of a small canal coming from a government-controlled suburb of Aleppo, Syria, to view dozens of bodies on Tuesday.
By HANIA MOURTADA and ALAN COWELL, Published: January 29, 2013

BEIRUT, Lebanon — An activist group with opposition contacts in Syria said on Tuesday that the muddied bodies of scores of people, most of them men in their 20s and 30s, had been found in a suburb of the northern city of Aleppo.

In Geneva, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said on Tuesday that there had been an “unrelenting flow of refugees” across Syria’s borders, principally into Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey.

The highest numbers were in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon but smaller numbers had been registered in Egypt and North Africa, said Sybella Wilkes, a spokeswoman for the refugee agency.

The total now exceeds 700,000, made up of around 580,000 registered and the rest waiting to be registered as refugees. The spurt in refugees meant that 200,000 have fled in less than two months since early December when the total was around 500,000.

“We are trying to clear a backlog of people because the numbers have gone up so dramatically,” in Jordan and Lebanon particularly, Ms. Wilkes said.

The fighting has long ceased to be a straight contest between government and rebel forces. In the northern town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, rebels have fought Kurds. and in Deir al-Zour, rivalries among the groups claiming to have overrun the security office showed the contest between them to attract arms and recruits.

Omar Abu Layla, an activist documenting the fighting, said local and Al Nusra groups had joined in the fighting.

“Al Nusra are good in suicide attacks, but our battalions are better than them at storming,” he said.

In the central city of Homs, meanwhile, the toll of the fighting among the dwindling number of inhabitants seemed evident on Tuesday as government forces launched a rocket attack on the Jouret al-Shiyah neighborhood.

“Mercy, dear God, Mercy. I don’t know what’s going on. I feel that they’re shelling right above us,” said Um Abdo, a resident in her fifties. “I feel that the whole world is shaking. The shelling is so heavy and so close. Pray for us please. I swear we are drained and exhausted.”

World Bank, UN Provide Bleak Estimate of 2012 Economic Performance (Syria Report)
The World Bank and ESCWA have estimated Syria’s GDP to have plunged by 20 to 30 percent last year as the war engulfing the country continues to take its toll on the economy.

En Syrie, une «économie sous perfusion des pays amis» (This is an excellent run down by Jihad Yazigi and Caroline Donati of the many economic problems Syrians now face. Read all]
27 janvier 2013 | Par Caroline Donati

Comment tient la Syrie après presque deux années de révolution et de guerre ? Jihad Yazigi, rédacteur en chef du Syria Report, site d’information et d’analyse économique (http://www.syria-report.com), évalue les moyens de subsistance de la population et les ressources d’un régime sous perfusion de ses derniers alliés : « Il faudra vingt ans pour revenir au niveau d’avant-guerre », selon lui. Entretien.

Selon le Programme alimentaire mondial (PAM), près d’un million de Syriens seraient menacés de famine, cet hiver. Que pensez-vous de cette estimation ?

Il est aujourd’hui très difficile d’avoir des chiffres sur la situation mais le PAM a raison de tirer la sonnette d’alarme. Ce que l’on peut dire, c’est que la détérioration de la situation, qui s’est considérablement accélérée depuis l’été dernier et les combats à Alep, a aggravé une très profonde crise économique et sociale. Il y a une forte décroissance, le chômage est très élevé, le taux d’inflation officiel est de 50 % mais il est bien plus élevé car l’indice est mesuré par rapport aux prix officiels : par exemple, le mazout est calculé au prix de 27 livres syriennes le litre, alors qu’en réalité il est de 100 livres et bien plus.

Le grand problème qui se pose est un problème d’acheminement des biens, des produits agricoles. Il est très difficile de circuler d’une région à une autre, les routes sont très dangereuses, les attaques y sont permanentes de la part de bandes armées qui profitent du chaos.

À ce problème d’acheminement s’ajoute celui de la pauvreté. Beaucoup de gens ont perdu leur travail depuis longtemps et leurs économies fondent ou ont déjà fondu ; l’inflation atteint des niveaux records en particulier pour le pain, élément de base de l’alimentation des familles : dans certains quartiers touchés par la violence, elle atteint parfois 500 %. Il faut aussi savoir que les régions et les quartiers qui sont les plus touchés par la violence sont des zones pauvres. Cette combinaison de facteurs laisse prévoir ce type de situation : l’appauvrissement et le risque de famine…..

France Worried Syria will Fall into Hands of Islamist Militant Groups

PARIS (Reuters) – France’s foreign minister said on Monday Syria risks falling into the hands of Islamist militant groups if supporters of the Syrian opposition do not do more to help it in a 22-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

Addressing the opening of a conference in Paris with senior members of the Syrian National Coalition, Laurent Fabius said the meeting must focus on making the opposition politically and militarily cohesive to encourage international assistance.

“Facing the collapse of a state and society, it is Islamist groups that risk gaining ground if we do not act as we should,” he said. “We cannot let a revolution that started as a peaceful and democratic protest degenerate into a conflict of militias.”

Western concern over the growing strength of jihadist militants fighting autonomously in the disorganized ranks of anti-Assad rebel forces is rising. This has hindered international aid to the moderate Syrian

Daniel Lippman, who has just returned from Turkey, wrote these two articles about Turkey and Syria and about Syrian refugees

NGO – ‘Initiative for a New Syria’ and its objectives. Financial report of donations inside Syria: The report can also be found online at http://insyria.org/en/operations/reports.php

Migration Policy Institute’s online journal, the Migration Information Source, Hospitals and Doctors under Attack in Syria: Q&A with the Chair of the Humanitarian Aid Committee for the Syrian Expatriates Organization. Dr. Fadi Al Khankan of the Syrian Expatriates Organization, a nonprofit organization of Syrian Americans and Syrian Canadians that is providing medical care and humanitarian relief among other initiatives to establish a democratic Syria, recently sat for a Q&A with the Source.

Al-Nusra- Front claims Credit for Blast in Ismaili town in Syria

Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad Says His Wife Is Pregnant
2013-01-28 20:00:12.707 GMT

By Max Fisher
Jan. 28 (Washington Post) — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime is embroiled in a now two-year civil war that has killed tens of thousands, gave a cheery interview to unnamed “visitors,” as reported by a sympathetic newspaper, in which he offhandedly revealed that his wife is pregnant. Asma al-Assad, the 37-year-old, British-born young mother of three (now four?),

Feeling All Cooped Up In The Syrian Capital
January 28, 2013 – NPR

…Watching television is probably the most common pastime these days. The most popular shows are Turkish soap operas, but every household also seems addicted to coverage of the war in Syria.

The average middle-class Damascene home has satellite TV complete with international news channels. Staunch pro-regime supporters shy away from watching the likes of BBC Arabic, CNN International and Al Jazeera, and instead watch Syrian state TV or Russia Today.

These choices can create tensions inside households, as individuals disagree on the politics.

To placate everyone, one couple hosting five relatives decided to purchase a second TV.

“We eat our meals together, and we don’t talk politics,” said the wife. “But come news time? We split up into two rooms, pro-regime and anti.”….

Medvedev: Assad made “grave error” over reforms, “It seems to me that his chances of staying are shrinking day by day”
NOW

Obama Seems to Believe Syria Intervention would Backfire
Wash Post Blog on Obama’s statement on Syria on 60 minutes

But in Syria, his administration wants to make sure U.S. action would not backfire, he said.

“We do nobody a service when we leap before we look, where we … take on things without having thought through all the consequences of it,” Obama told CBS.

“We are not going to be able to control every aspect of every transition and transformation” in conflicts around the world, he said. “Sometimes they’re going to go sideways.” (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

Hillary Clinton on Syria (60 Minutes)

“I’m older than the president,” she joked, then turned serious. “I remember some of the speeches of Eisenhower as a young girl. You know you’ve  got to be careful, you have to be thoughtful, you can’t rush in, especially now where it’s more complex now than it’s been in decades.”

Clinton called Syria a “wicked problem” that highlights the delicate balancing act of how to make sure U.S. foreign policy upholds American values and freedom in situations where the solution has the potential to be worse than the problem.

Clinton said the president’s policy on Syria has been appropriately measured.

“I’m certainly grateful for the president’s steady hand and hard questions and thoughtful analysis as to what we should and shouldn’t do,” he said.

President Obama to CHRIS HUGHES of New Republic

CH: The last question is about Syria. I wonder if you can speak about how you personally, morally, wrestle with the ongoing violence there.

Obama: Every morning, I have what’s called the PDB—presidential daily briefing—and our intelligence and national security teams come in here and they essentially brief me on the events of the previous day. And very rarely is there good news. And a big chunk of my day is occupied by news of war, terrorism, ethnic clashes, violence done to innocents. And what I have to constantly wrestle with is where and when can the United States intervene or act in ways that advance our national interest, advance our security, and speak to our highest ideals and sense of common humanity.

And as I wrestle with those decisions, I am more mindful probably than most of not only our incredible strengths and capabilities, but also our limitations. In a situation like Syria, I have to ask, can we make a difference in that situation? Would a military intervention have an impact? How would it affect our ability to support troops who are still in Afghanistan? What would be the aftermath of our involvement on the ground? Could it trigger even worse violence or the use of chemical weapons? What offers the best prospect of a stable post-Assad regime? And how do I weigh tens of thousands who’ve been killed in Syria versus the tens of thousands who are currently being killed in the Congo?

Those are not simple questions. And you process them as best you can. You make the decisions you think balance all these equities, and you hope that, at the end of your presidency, you can look back and say, I made more right calls than not and that I saved lives where I could, and that America, as best it could in a difficult, dangerous world, was, net, a force for good.

Prince Turki al-Faisal on Syria at Davos

On Friday, a senior member of Saudi Arabia’s monarchy said militants should be given sophisticated arms, including anti-aircraft weapons.

“What is needed are sophisticated, high-level weapons that can bring down planes, can take out tanks at a distance. This is not getting through,” Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former intelligence chief and brother of the Saudi foreign minister, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“I’m not in government so I don’t have to be diplomatic. I assume we’re sending weapons and if we were not sending weapons it would be terrible mistake on our part,” Faisal said, adding that “You have to level the playing field…”

Jihadists and Secular Activists Clash in Syria
By HANIA MOURTADA and ANNE BARNARD, January 26, 2013

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The tensions had been simmering for months in the northern Syrian town of Saraqib. Civilian antigovernment activists had complained of rebel fighters who needlessly destroyed a milk factory and treated residents disrespectfully. A growing contingent of jihadist fighters from the ideologically extreme and militarily formidable Nusra Front was suspicious of the activists’ secular, nonviolent agenda.

On Thursday, mistrust erupted into confrontation. Masked men believed to be with Al Nusra raided the headquarters of two secular civilian grass-roots organizations — setting in motion one of the most dramatic tests yet of the makeshift system of local governance that civilians and fighters have established in Saraqib, a rebel-held town.

The dispute also tests the clout of jihadist fighters and the ability of civilian opposition groups to stand up to them. The increasingly prominent role of jihadist battalions on the battlefield worried the United States enough to blacklist Al Nusra last year as a terrorist organization, an effort to isolate it that may have backfired. The Syrian opposition is ambivalent about the group: while many antigovernment activists oppose its vision of an Islamic state and complain of attempts to enforce pious practices, its relatively steady arms supply and string of battleground victories have brought it respect

Israel Girds For Attacks As Syria Falls Apart
By JODI RUDOREN and ANNE BARNARD NYTimes

“If there will be a need, we will take action to prevent chemical weapons from being transferred to Islamic terror organizations,” Mr. Shalom said on Army Radio. “We are obligated to keep our eye on it at all times, in the event chemical weapons fall into Hezbollah’s hands.”…

Uprising’s first Druze defector declared dead
January 24, 2013 The Daily Star
by  Marlin Dick

The first army defector from the southern province of Swaida was declared dead Wednesday, after having led a battle against regime forces earlier in the month.

The Facebook page of the Revolutionary Military Council for Swaida said that Khaldoun Zeineddine, the leader of the Sultan Pasha al-Atrash Battalion of the Free Syrian Army, had been “martyred,” along with an undisclosed number of his comrades….

Opposition Clashes with Kurds Raise Fears of Arab-Kurdish Civil War in Syria, al-Nusra Front and the FSA involved in the fighting –
Rudaw.net By ADIB ABDULMAJID

…28 rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main opposition fighting to topple the regime of President Hafez Assad, and five from the Kurdish Popular Protection Committee (YPG), were killed in last week’s encounter….

“We are struggling against terrorist armed groups who have caused total destruction in the city and forced our people to leave their homes,” Silo told Rudaw over the phone. “We will confront all enemies of the Kurdish people, whether they belong to the regime or the FSA.”

Silo said that fighters from the al-Nusra Front, Ghuraba al-Sham and the FSA were involved in the fighting.

“Kurdish areas should remain under Kurdish control, otherwise the consequences will be severe for the future of our people,” he added.

?????? ??????? ???????? ?????? Syriac Military Council formed

Assad made ‘grave error’ over reforms: Medvedev
2013-01-27 15:39:49.135 GMT

SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad made a “grave, perhaps fatal error” by delaying political reforms, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev says.

“He should have acted much more quickly and reached out to the peaceful opposition, which was ready to sit at the negotiating table with him,” Russian news agencies quoted Medvedev as saying.

“It’s a grave error on his part, perhaps fatal,” he said, in a rare criticism of Assad by Syria’s traditional ally Moscow.

“It seems to me that his chances of staying (in power) are shrinking day by day,” Medvedev said in remarks to CNN television on the sidelines of the Davos World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

He reiterated Russia’s position that only the Syrian people can decide the fate of Assad, whose departure the West has long called for in the face of the nearly two-year-long conflict in Syria.

“I repeat once again: It is for the Syrian people to decide. Not Russia or the United States or any other country.” Moscow has long opposed any foreign intervention in the conflict that the United Nations says has killed at least 60,000 people since March 2011.

Syrian Rebel Jihadists Threaten To Attack France In Retaliation For Mali Offensive… Via MEMRI:

This Message is addressed to the French Republic and its people from the Mujahideen of Syria, following the French government’s decision to attack our noble brothers, who instated the shari’a, who fought polytheism, who spread monotheism in northern Mali – the law of Allah, the shari’a, the only legislation to which a Muslim may submit.

The most fundamental right of a Muslim is to live according to his religion, and his duty is to strive to instate it on the lands of Islam.

A Mujahid fights so that the word of Allah may reign supreme.

The simple reason that drives France and its allies to attack and kill those who establish the shari’a in Muslim countries is that they want to maintain the subservient regimes that agreed to be their vassals, to serve their interests in Muslim countries, and to oppress them with their tyranny.

As a result of the decision of the French government, which is not satisfied with preventing our virtuous sisters from donning the veil in accordance with Allah’s decree, and with constantly fighting Islam and the Muslims…

The Levant States seem to be coming unglued as the fighting in Fallujah pushes Iraq toward civil war. The Arab Spring may not be so much about democracy as reworking the states, borders, and national identities laid down by WWI colonial powers. The ungluing of state structures may eventually lead to democracy, but only after decades of turmoil and suffering. The peoples of the region are going through a great sorting out – perhaps not unlike the sorting out that Eastern Europe peoples went through during the first half of the last century. The ethnic groups and religious communities trapped within the Sykes-Picot borders must refashion national allegiances and identities into something workable. Today, they mostly seem dysfunctional. The economic and political failure of most Middle Eastern states seems linked to the broader social failure to find a common identity. Hopefully the North African states can pull through this without such collapse.

Robert Springborg writes:

Manifestations of centrifugal forces from Libya to Iraq raise the question of whether the Arab postcolonial states can, as presently configured geographically and structurally, transit to post-postcolonial, at least quasi-democratic, states. Or will they be federalized, Lebanized or altogether dismembered, with all of the political turbulence and violence associated with these scenarios of reconfiguration and dismemberment? Secondly, the rise of Islamism — most especially in Tunisia and Egypt but essentially everywhere as Arab authoritarian leaders begin to teeter — raises a question: will the Arab world become part of global political processes or depart yet further from them? After all, Iran’s choice of a vilayat-e faqih [an Islamic jurist] to lead the nation hardly brought it back into the global mainstream.

Iraq Moves Toward Civil War
By Marisa Sullivan, January 26, 2013 – ISW

Thousands of Iraqis gathered in Fallujah on Saturday, 26 January, to bury the protesters killed the day before by Iraqi Army fire. At a protest following the funerals, demonstrators denounced the government in language reminiscent of the early stages of the uprising in Syria, chanting “Listen Maliki, we are free people” and “Take your lesson from Bashar.” Many protesters displayed Saddam-era flags, signaling their sympathy with the former Ba’ath regime.  Photos from the funeral also show demonstrators waving the black flag of al-Qaeda.

Fallujah Protests Turn Violent
January 25, 2013
By Marisa Sullivan, Stephen Wicken, and Sam Wyer – ISW

Anti-government demonstrations turned violent today as Iraqi security forces fired on protesters in Fallujah. The confrontation began when protesters in eastern Fallujah attempted to join Friday’s demonstration and were blocked by security forces deployed from Baghdad. The demonstrators began to throw rocks and water bottles at the security forces at the checkpoint.  In videos from the scene, the protesters appear to be unarmed, though Prime Minister Maliki later accused the demonstrators of firing on security forces. Iraqi army forces escalated by firing warning shots into the air, but soon they began to fire directly at the crowd. Protesters also escalated by torching several army vehicles and two cars, including one belonging to an Iraqiyya politician and another to a local politician. Initial reports indicate as many as seven protesters were killed and more than 60 were wounded in the incident.

Several hours later, clashes between gunmen and security forces occurred…The Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), a group linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq, is claiming responsibility for the attacks and calling for people to join the “jihad” in Fallujah on Twitter. On Friday evening, they declared that “gunmen [were] deployed in the streets of Fallujah to protect the protesters.”…

1000 Militias in Syria

International Committee of the Red Cross index of armed groups in Syria with which they have to deal is 15 pages; about 1,000 in total.

Alawite Wedding Video attended by General Ali Khouzam, a high ranking general in the Republican Guard and right hand man to Mr Maher Al Assad.

The language is difficult but Ali Khouzam explains to the young men attending the wedding who hang on his words that only three of the original 50 soldiers of his unit remain alive. He says that he was dragged to the wedding by his wife who wanted to go out and have some fun.

The primary context of the video is the singing of a zajal, a  semi-improvised and semi-sung form of poetry. In this instance it is constructed around the repetition of variations of the word “Ali” to mean “Ali” the cousin of Prophet Muhammad, “aali” the highest, and the preposition “on”. There is nothing unusual about such a zajal, but what is unusual is the distinctly Alawite religious incantations that are added by Khouzam, something that has shocked many non-Alawite listeners and caused it to go viral. Most Syrians know little about the Alawite religion. Even though Alawites and Sunnis have lived side by side for centuries, the Alawite deification of Ali remains a shocking realization to many. Alawites conceal their religion and have been frequently condemned for exaggerating their worship of Ali.

Ali Khouzam calls Ali the creator and the Prince of the Bees, a title frequently used in Alawite prayers. Khousam tells the young men that God will forgive the Alawites for their sins and that they have no choice but to continue fighting.

Apparently 10 days after he attended this wedding Khouzam was killed in the ongoing battles with the revolutionary forces.

Even in Assad’s coastal retreat, the war has come and the bombs are dropping
Martin Chulov, The Observer, Saturday 26 January 2013

Bands of rebels, pursued by Syrian air power, are consolidating their position in mountains above the wealthy playground of Latakia – which may become the regime’s last redoubt….jihadist groups, first among them the al-Qaida-aligned Jabhat al-Nusra, who are now congregating around 20km north of Latakia and making plans to advance. “There are around 300-400 of them,” said a rebel commander in the hills not far away. “They have their eyes on the gold and jewellery stores. They are more interested in here than in Idlib, or Aleppo.”

Not all those under fire are seeking refuge in Latakia. Some families, the few that remain in the battleground villages of Jebel al-Krud, are trying to make their way north to Turkey. In one such village, the custodian of the town’s Orthodox church offered the Observer a tour of the ancient stone building that she so clearly cherished….

“It won’t be fast and it won’t be easy,” said a leader of the rebels’ military council, who not long ago owned large and lucrative quarries in the Idlib hinterland. His business interests have since been confiscated and he claimed to be as penniless as the defector sitting cross-legged on the barren floor next to him, a private in the Syrian army who fled his post in Jisr al-Shughour last month. “I don’t care what it takes,” the officer said. “As long as we beat al-Qaida to Latakia.”

In this room, a former Syrian army outpost, and in others like it in the northern countryside of Syria, the working theory is that Assad and his senior officials are keeping a corridor open to Latakia from the south-east – a line that traces the Alawite heartland of the country, past Hama, then Homs, and ending in Damascus.

“They are preparing for a worst-case scenario,” one rebel offered as an explanation. “If it goes badly for the Alawites, they will want a country of their own.”

“Do you think it’s going badly for them?” another man asked. “This is going to continue for another year. They will wear us down.”

Another man joined in, struggling to be heard above a now increasing din of voices. “Another year, we’ll all be dead. That is too much. May God punish Bashar and all his family.”

The conversation was now drowned by shouting. Goals and realities seemed almost irreconcilable at this point in the group’s battle planning. There seems little way forward except more of the same grinding, miserable suffering that has come to characterise the war in the north.

“But we must get it together. We just must,” the rebel leader finally piped up. “You in the west ask us why it is going like this and then you refuse to help us. Latakia is a price worth paying. There is no way Bashar can win the war if he loses there.”

We spoke by phone to a merchant in Latakia on Saturday. He runs restaurants on the coastline and an import business through the nearby port. “Jet skis are on the ocean and people are smoking [water pipes],” he said. “Yes, there are planes and bombs in the distance. But for now it’s our new reality. We are getting used to it. If they get any closer, we’ll leave.”

The Battle for Latakia Part One
by Karen Leigh – January 21, 2013 – Syria Deeply

“The [rest of the] fighting will be in Latakia, because the regime’s power is all in Latakia,” says Major Abu Suheil, head of the provincial military council. “If we finish them there, we win. Latakia’s fighting will stretch on longer than anywhere else in Syria.”…

The creation of an unbridgeable divide
Ammar Abdulhamid 24 January 2013, Open Democracy

Syria’s civil war is now strongly characterised by militias identifying along sectarian lines. The growing divide between Sunnis and Alawites has profound implications for Syria, and the Middle East…. The revolution has indeed challenged this state of affairs, constituting an existential threat in the political as well as the socio-economic sense, not only to the Assad family but to the Alawite community as a whole….

For the Sunni Arab population of Syria, it’s the overt sectarian and violent nature of the crackdown, underscored by the willingness to kill unarmed protesters, including women and children, and to defile mosques and Sunni religious symbols, that have in time posed an existential threat. While in terms of the demographics involved, the Sunnis are under no real threat of being physically wiped out by Alawites, in reality, over the last 20 months, the very structure of their existence has been severely undermined. With millions of Sunni refugees now on the run inside and outside the country, and entire Sunni towns, villages and neighborhoods laid to waste, entire ways of life and a worldview that used to be more encompassing and tolerant have been, perhaps irrevocably, shattered.

The Syrian Sunni identity is changing. Sunnis see that they are being treated as if they were all extremist Salafists, as indicated by the pejorative term “Ar’ouris” (after the Salafi Sheikh Adnan Ar’our) concocted by Alawite militias. They see that the majority of members of other confessional minority groups seem to remain sympathetic to Assad,…

Jihadism and national pride

The fact that the Sunni community has for years harbored within its fold movements that were ideologically and psychologically primed to embrace such a development, namely the Muslim Brotherhood, Hizb Al-Tahrir, the Salafi community and other Jihadi elements, made this transformation somewhat inevitable.

There are two forms of Jihadism clashing in Syria today….. al-Nusra…

The other form of Jihadism on the scene is of course Alawite. In fact, in the context of the Syrian Revolution, Alawite Jihadism seems to have emerged first, before actively encouraging the emergence of a Sunni counterpart within the ranks of the revolutionary movement by providing a justification for its existence and tactics….

But there is something unique about Alawite Jihadism. Rather than developing as a strictly religious phenomenon, as is the case with other Shia Jihadi movements such as Hezbollah and the Mahdi Army, Alawite Jihadism is more of a national Alawite pride movement. Indeed, by taking part in Assad’s bloody crackdown, Alawite youths, irrespective of their level of education, seem to be expressing pride in who they are. In their leaked videos, Facebook pages and twitter accounts, young Alawite men in particular seem to feel quite empowered, liberated even, by the acts of brutality being perpetrated in their name by their “patriotic” militias, or which they themselves are directly perpetrating. The leaked video of the Alawite soldier who called his mother and had her listen in as he executed a “terrorist” is a grisly and poignant example. For the first time, young Alawite men are now able to celebrate their identity and declare the superiority of their ways and beliefs, while expressing publicly what they must have felt for so long vis-à-vis their Sunni compatriots. Young Alawite men are now telling the world that they are followers of Amir Al-Mu’mineen Haydarah Ali Bin Abi Talib and believers in the Divine Wisdom of one Bashar Al-Assad for whose sake they are willing to set the entire country on fire, and have in fact been doing so.

In a sense, Alawite youths have awoken and are leading their own revolution (or counter-revolution) in a manner commensurate with their own vision and understanding of where their interests lie. Far from the limelight, they are leading their own Jihad against history, the very history that has always conspired against them, so they believe, and continues to do so. The fact that their suffering is not as well-publicized as that of their Sunni “enemies” makes it seem even more authentic. After all, their suffering and sacrifices have always taken place far from the limelight, and the history books, and are alive only in their collective memory, their oral traditions, and their imagination.

The civil struggle

Far from the limelight as well, other communities in Syria feel equally threatened. There are Arab Christian communities of different denominations, there are Christians of Armenian and Assyrian descent, there are Druzes and Ismailites, and there are Cherkessians and Kurds. All are looking on with horror as the two main protagonists in the current conflagration become more and more radical and out-of-control….

So it seems that the glue that used to keep these communities together through thick and thin, that element of trust, that live-and-let-live ethos stemming from centuries of relatively peaceful coexistence under the millet system, has dried up under the Assad regime’s continuous and vindictive assault on civil society. But there is nothing to replace it today: neither a covenant nor an accord, nor even a respected elite that can put something together then sell it to the people…..

Syria consensus coalesces in Davos, by Gideon Rachman in Davos – FT

West’s fears over Syria Islamists mount as coalition flounders
John Irish and Mohammed Abbas Reuters, January 25, 2013

PARIS/LONDON (Reuters) – Western concern over the growing strength of jihadist rebels in Syria is mounting, hindering aid to the moderate Syrian National Coalition opposition and possibly pushing it into the arms of religiously conservative backers, diplomatic sources said.

The widely recognized coalition has failed to gain traction on the ground in Syria since being formed in November, its credibility undermined by its failure to secure arms and cash in the battle to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, the coalition’s lack of cohesion – it this week failed to form a transitional government – has deterred the West from boosting aid to the group, in particular the guns and ammunition coalition fighters are crying out for.

That has left the door open to Islamist groups, funded and armed by wealthy Gulf states and individuals, to become the strongest fighting factions in Syria. They command local respect for their effectiveness, but alarm some in the West.

On Monday, Western and Syrian coalition officials hope to break the deadlock at a meeting in Paris, amid coalition accusations of broken promises of aid and splits in the West on how to address the Islamist presence in the Syrian rebel ranks.

“This meeting is to ring the alarm bell. We have to assure the coalition of our support and the support of the international community,” said a French diplomatic source.

“We must avoid a government in exile. The objective is to have a direct impact on the ground. Bring value to the Syrians on the ground,” the source added.

Syrian coalition officials say the best way to make an impact is to provide its poorly equipped fighters with weapons. But Western diplomats are wary of the coalition’s disunity, and are mindful of the spread of weapons to Islamists in Syria and across the volatile region.

French forces are currently battling Islamists in Mali, the insurgents armed with weapons thought to have come from Libya after the Western-backed 2011 uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.

“We have also learnt from experience and we’re seeing it in Mali with weapons that came from Libya to the armed groups there now. What we don’t want is weapons falling into the hands of the wrong people,” the French source said….

First women’s unit established for Syrian Army

Today’s events suggest a significant escalation in Iraq’s ongoing crisis after weeks of anti-government protests. Sunni protesters and tribal leaders in Anbar are now threatening to abandon politics and return to violence as the primary means for addressing their grievances. A violent response by Sunni groups or security forces could prompt security and stability in Iraq to unravel.

Understanding the Supreme Military Council: The Military Branch of Syria’s Future Opposition Council-led Transitional Government, January 5, 2013 by Syrian Support Group Policy Blog – it gives a battle plan which can be compared to that of its rival, the Islamic Front, here.

Henry Kissinger against the US sending troops to Syria

At Davos, he said, “I urge that the administration not intervene militarily. If it does, it will find itself in the middle of a bitter ethnic conflict”…. world cannot ignore the huge unfolding humanitarian tragedy with more than 60,000 people killed and four million displaced. “Even if outside forces do not intervene militarily, the administration will be caught up in the humanitarian tragedy that has started”.

Jordan’s King Abdullah: “The New Taliban Are In Syria” – The Daily Beast – said at Davos

Rebel court fills void amid Syrian civil war
By Ivan Watson and Raja Razek, CNN, January 25, 2013

…This self-appointed council of judges, lawyers and clerics started working four months ago. Judging by the line of supplicants waiting in the halls, residents appear to have granted this court some degree of popular legitimacy.

….”Up until now we can control the situation,” Gayed warned. “But later on, we may not be able to contain it.”

Gayed argued his council’s experiment in rebel justice is a more tolerant alternative to the Islamic courts that Nusra Front has reportedly been establishing in Aleppo and in other rebel controlled towns.

The United Courts Council is working to expand its law-and-order model to other communities in the largely rebel-held north. It is a desperate strategy, council members admitted, aimed at preventing Syria from descending further into chaos.

Sultan Al Qassemi analyzes how Qatar’s relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is affecting its ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the region. al-Monitor

Economy: Syria’s farming sector now in “tatters,” the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned Wednesday. Analysts said the growing privations could hurt the rebels as much as, or more than, the government of President Bashar al-Assad. …

Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report business newsletter, said the FAO report echoed other disturbing provisional agricultural data for last year, such as a decline of almost a third in the cotton crop and a 50 percent drop in sales at the state fertilizer company. A surge in fighting in the northeast of the country threatened to cause more suffering by affecting the wheat and barley crops concentrated there, he added.
Syria’s GDP declines: Syria’s GDP shrank by 29.1% during the 22-month uprising, the economic sanctions and continued fighting caused significant economic losses, Abdallah Al Dardari, Director of the ESCWA Economic Development and Globalization Division (EDGD) said during a press conference in Beirut on Thursday….

Although sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union do not officially target food or agricultural commodities, restrictions imposed on Syrian banks and trading companies mean that international institutions are reluctant to finance grain imports.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said Wednesday that wheat and barley production in Syria has been halved since the conflict broke out 22 months ago.

Government Increases Mazout Price: The Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Protection announced a 40% increase in the price of heating oil, thus bringing the price per litre to 35 SYP (US$ 0.49). The fourth such rise in less than a year comes as the country suffers a severe shortage of fuel which is sold at US$ 1.65 per litre in the black market.

Syria lends more money from Iran: Syria and Iran have agreed a $1 billion credit facility between Commercial Bank of Syria and Export Development Bank of Iran. The agreement was signed during a visit to Tehran by the Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi. The two countries had reached agreements on energy transmission and electricity equipment as well.

Syria Solution Requires Orderly Transition, Out for Assad: Kerry
2013-01-24, By Peter S. Green

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) — Goal of Obama administration in Syria must be orderly transition from Assad to democratic opposition, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., says at Senate confirmation hearing.

* U.S. needs to change calculation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that “he doesn’t think he’s losing”
* U.S. must consider fallout of every decision made on Syria
* Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says U.S. must supply arms to Syrian rebels to balance Iran’s aid for Assad
* “We need to tell Syrian people we are going to help them or not,” McCain says
* McCain asks Kerry to explore “different policy” than one pursued in last 22 months
* Kerry says he understands McCain’s frustration
* Kerry: “I don’t have optimism” about Russia helping U.S. find a way to change Assad’s mind

CNN: Regime insiders among Syrian refugees, says U.S. ambassador
2013-01-24

(CNN) — When you think of refugees, you may think of huddled masses, tired and poor. But those aren’t the only types of people fleeing Syria. “Members of the regime, little by little, are flaking off,” U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told CNN …

Apparently US envoy Ford misspoke in Turkey today. @Joyce_Karam reports State Dep’t tells @alhayatdaily #Assad spox #Makdissi NOT in US

Recruiting civilians – al-Ahram Weekly

In a step that could lead to open civil war, the Syrian regime is setting up pro-regime militias in parallel with the country’s regular army, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus

Syrian government officials said this week that the regime led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad intended to form a new military entity called the National Defence Army (NDA) that would operate in parallel to the country’s regular forces.

The new military entity will reportedly include 20,000 members carrying light and medium weapons. These will be paid and will wear non-military uniforms. They will be deployed throughout Syria in towns and cities under the control of the armed opposition, and each group will receive local assistance from regime supporters.

The new entity will be divided into small units, each of which will be able to make its own decisions. Like other security and military forces in Syria, the units will not be accountable for any abuses they commit because there are legally protected from prosecution.

The opposition has said that in taking this step the regime is attempting to disguise the poor reputation of pro-regime militias that have committed massacres across the country, including at Al-Zaytoun, Al-Hasweya, Al-Howla, Al-Tremsa and Darya.

At the same time, it warns that the move will open the door to undisguised civil war in the country.

[Landis comment on Kurds: In the following article CJ Chivers explains that some Kurds are siding with the Syrian rebels against Assad. This is particularly true of the Kurds north of Aleppo, who, unlike the Kurds in the northeast of Syria, cannot dream of establishing their own Kurdish state. They know that they must live with Arab Syrians and they have had enough of Assad. The Kurds in the East are largely making a different calculation. They prefer not to be governed by either Assad or the rebels. Islamist Arab militias are attacking the Kurds in the East because they don’t want to allow the PKK to establish an autonomous region. ]

Defying Common View, Some Syrian Kurds Fight Assad,
The New York Times
Kurds who are part of a group fighting the Assad government met Sunday in Alghooz, a village in northern Syria.
By C. J. CHIVERS, January 22, 2013

….the scenes in Alghooz and in a string of Kurdish villages north of Aleppo present a more complex picture of Syria’s Kurds and their ambitions and relations with the government. Kurds here fiercely note that they have suffered under Mr. Assad’s rule, too, and taken up arms against him. They sharply contradict the notion that they rely on Mr. Assad’s government for protection.

And so while there have been signs that many Kurds remained pro-government, with some pro-P.K.K. fighters clashing with rebels, hundreds of others have joined the Free Syrian Army, as the loosely assembled antigovernment fighters call themselves, Kurdish and rebel leaders say.

The flatlands north of Aleppo are spotted with towns. Local men said that about 40,000 Kurds live here, and that their families have produced more than 600 fighters against Mr. Assad.

The fighters are organized into at least eight separate groups, Kurdish leaders and fighters said. Their names include the Islamic Kurdish Front, the Pesh Merga Falcons and the Martyrs of Mecca.

Defying official and popular accounts of Kurdish loyalties, these men fight beside Arabs against Mr. Assad. They and their leaders bluntly denounce the P.K.K., which the United States and Europe consider a terrorist organization, and also criticize many Kurdish nationalists, saying that calls for an independent Kurdistan are not a vision they share.

“We are not interested in a separate homeland,” said Yousef Haidar, 72, Alghooz’s mukhtar, or village elder. “We want to be part of Syria.”…“There has been much propaganda that the Kurds are with the regime,” Mr. Abdulkader said. “We are not with Assad. We are fighting him.”

VIDEO: Free Syrian Army accuses Kurdish group of being Assad’s mercenaries. Ras Al Ain – Al Jazeera English

Syrian Kurd: The FSA is helping create conflict between Arabs and Kurds – NPR

The regime continues to seek opportunities to delegitimize the revolution and create a rift among Syrians…..

We are saddened by the events that have transpired in the city of Ras Al-Ain ,and we have been working tirelessly to suppress and avoid conflicts there. We remind everyone that, whoever collaborates with the regime and helps to murder our people, will be held accountable for all his/her actions. Our moral, social and religious principles reject these actions….

Fund Syria’s Moderates – By Robin Yassin-Kassab Foreign Policy

….It’s too late for a happy ending in Syria. There are no easy answers to the country’s enormous problems, but there is an obvious first step toward a solution: funding the moderate Islamists and secularists of the Syrian National Coalition, which will then feed the hungry and fund the fighters, empowering them to buy the weapons they need….

Syrian Palestinians Fear Three-Way Fight for Control of Refugee Camps By David Enders | McClatchy Newspapers

How Will al-Assad Leave? By Tariq Alhomayed | Asharq Alawsat

Independent: Assad’s Lionesses: the female last line in the battle for Syria
2013-01-22

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has recruited a brigade of women to man checkpoints and carry out security operations as he attempts to free up soldiers in his beleaguered army to fight the rebels. Dressed in fatigues and armed with Kalashnikov

Burhan Ghalyoun said it outright: “The US has stopped its support for the revolution because of Israeli concerns.”

Syria builds paramilitary force aided by Iran: activists | News , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-Ea…

Thanks to Bartolo’s blog

Russia’s Putin says Libya and Syria revolts led to Algeria hostage crisis – Yahoo! News –

French Military Source: US Special Force in Lebanon to Monitor Syria – moqawama.org

Saudi Arabia v. Qatar on Syria – Counterpunch

Russia says it is not planning full Syria evacuation, Bogdanov: ” We think it (the conflict) may be prolonged” – Yahoo! News

Saudi says negotiated Syria settlement inconceivable – Reuters

Qatar hands Syrian opposition $20m – ArabianBusiness.com

UN concerned about sending arms to Syrian rebels, since “this contributes to spread of terror, destruction, and killings” – islamicinvitationturkey 

Some Algeria Attackers Are Placed at Benghazi
By ADAM NOSSITER: January 22, 2013

…“This is the result of the Arab Spring,” said the official said, who spoke on condition of anonymity because investigations into the hostage crisis were still under way. “I hope the Americans are conscious of this.”

American counterterrorism and intelligence officials have said that some members of Ansar al-Shariah, the group that carried out the attack on the diplomatic mission in Benghazi, had connections to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, one of the militant groups now holding northern Mali. But American officials have also said that the Qaeda affiliate played no role in directing or instigating that Benghazi attack.

Similarly, Egyptian security officials said they believed that a longtime Islamist militant from Egypt was involved in the gas field attack, but the officials did not know of any connection to the Benghazi attack as well….. Having already experienced a large-scale Islamist insurgency in the 1990s, in which perhaps as many as 100,000 were killed, Algeria had no intention of experiencing another,

Syrian refugees overwhelm Lebanon, region (Liz Sly)

BAR ELIAS, Lebanon —nearly 50,000 Syrians fleeing the violence and reporting their presence to the United Nations in neighboring countries over the past week. With the total number of refugees estimated at more than 670,000 and no end in sight to the bloodshed, last month’s U.N. forecast that there would be more than 1 million refugees by June is on track to be surpassed well before that

IPA (AU): False dawn: the Arab Spring
2013-01-23

IPA REVIEW ARTICLE | Daniel Mandel In a sense, the so-called Arab Spring can be said to have begun on 26 December 2010 in the Tunisian hinterland township of Sidi Bouzid, where a 26-year-old impoverished vegetable seller and father of eight, Mohamed …

I begin with letters from three Syria Comment readers:

Reader 1

Dr. Landis,
I have resisted writing to you for a long time. Proud to say that I was born in Aleppo. First thing I do every morning when I wake up is check on the situation of my family in Aleppo. And for the first time today, I feel overwhelming sadness for their situation. The madness, the violence, the hatred are killing Aleppo & the innocent civilians very fast while the world is watching. Five buildings collapsed last night in a very upscale area of Aleppo. The missiles that destroyed them came from ???? and targeted civilian areas & innocent people. My nephew survived the bombing of the university & had to walk over the bodies of his students to get home, covered with blood.

The city is disappearing & we’re watching. I turned on The Today show at seven this morning and the highlight of the new was the new hair style of Michelle Obama. It was so exciting to watch the list of celebrities descending on the Capital for our celebration of Freedom, Liberty & Justice. They didn’t mention anything about the thousands of people who died this week in Aleppo or just last night. We do not care & the whole world does not care. Human lives are not important anymore.

Why I’m writing to you??? Because I want to know how in the year 2013 massacres & killings like this can happen??? Every country around the globe is responsible. They’re all playing their games. This war is one of the ugliest civil wars in history. Money, power & arms are the winners. All sides are corrupt, evil and yes, Syria is dying by the second. My heart is broken to trillions pieces.

Dr. Landis,
Thank you so much for your reply. Unfortunately, I will rather if you do not mention my name because I’m so concerned about my brother …. He’s very outspoken on his Facebook page about the conflict. As you know by now, most Christians support the regime. The regime is protecting the Christian area & the churches in Aleppo ” ??????? ??????” they’re surrounded by the government army since July. To go from one section to the other you go through security checks and they search your car. They’re so afraid of the the Free Syrian army & the Jihadists. The safety & security of their daily lives disappeared.  They’re home by 5:00 or 6:00 pm behind their locked doors. My brother George was held hostage by the rebels in July in his business in the Jadiedeh district where everything is burned & destroyed. They let him go free after they videotaped him stepping on Assad’s picture, spiting on it & cursing the president. They let him go & then they destroyed his business & stole everything they could carry. So, can you imagine the fear of the Christians for the day when the Assad army is not protecting them??

Can you tell me what’s going to happen if the jihadists & rebels take control of these areas?? When we call for Assad to step down, do we have a plan for the protection of these innocent people ?? The Aleppo industrial district is destroyed beyond imagination. The equipment & machinery has been stolen & shipped to Turkey. I have members of my family who lost their factories & businesses to the rebels. My niece’s husband was taken hostage and released for 20 millions Syrian Pounds. I can go on & on telling you how much this civil war has destroyed the spirit & lives of many people. I spend big chunk of my time everyday checking on everybody & I honestly can’t find the words to console anybody. I don’t know what to say anymore to my 20 year old niece who wanted to commit suicide so she’ll not hear the bombing night after night.

I live far away from all this madness but I can’t deny the worries & agony I’m going through everyday. The freedom we enjoy in this country works for this society & we can’t impose it on other countries & cultures. Democracy is a process you learn when you’re young & when your thinking is not brainwashed by religion & ideologies. Why don’t we criticize Saudi Arabia or Qatar for their democracy?? Can we tell them to stop their export of arms to Syria??? No, we just want to please our allies. What’s happening in Syria is the war of United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Turkey against Syria and Iran. It’s the war of the Sunni against Shia, the war of hate, greed & corruption. From the Assad family to the Tlass family & all of them, the corruption is destroying them.

The sad reality is they have destroyed the past, the present & the future for generations of Syrians. Thank you for taking the time to read my frustration and despair.

Tara writes:

Josh, Unfortunately the mother of the headless little girl is not sophisticated enough to have known you to write you a letter to express her disgust with the Christians in Aleppo in support of the regime that rendered her little girl headless and dead for the mere reason of maintaining their privileges. They could care less about the headless little girl and I personally could care less about their primitive fears. I call the assortment of the readers’ letters today a selection bias. Sorry for being blunt.

Addendum from Reader 1

The Christians in Aleppo opened their homes & pockets to feed & help the refuges from the destroyed areas. They do not ask them if they are ???? ????? ????? ?????

or….. My heart is broken for every Syrian, every child & every life. Twelve members of  a Muslim family are staying in my aunt’s house since they lost their house in July. So to say that the Christian deserve this treatment because they support the regime is the reason that Syria will never have democracy…

Reader 3

48 Hours in Damascus – January 9th/10th/11th 2013
By Mohammad D.

Every two weeks my sister used to visit Damascus.  She worked and lived there part time.  This routine stopped about two months when the Battle of Damascus started, or the Battle of the International Airport.  I was surprised last week when I contacted her and found that she was in Damascus.  I was worried about her.  We contact each other one or two times a day through social media, mainly on Facebook or by Skype.   We discuss everything about the situation in in Syria.

I asked her about her every move in Damascus.  She reported back very vividly through an e mail and many chats. This is what she said: ”

You know how much I love this city that I had spent years in… I reached Damascus International Airport around one in the afternoon.

The moment I exited the gate of the airport I heard an artillery discharge.  I thought, jokingly, that this may be saluting me since I have not visited this city that I loved when it was peaceful for two months.

My questions started raining down on the driver from the moment I entered the car about how safe is the road?  Of course, he was not feeling good about my questions, and I was not feeling good about his answer since he said to me that he is afraid of being sniped.

I asked him to drive along with the other cars if he could so we would not be alone for just a second. I asked him, of course, about the dangerous areas in our way to Damascus.  He replied: “all the road is dangerous.” The airport is 25 minutes away from Damascus, about 20 kilometers, if traffic was moving well.

We drove as fast as we could, and when we reached the bridge opposite of Aqraba, the driver pointed to the area where the armed men came out off a month and a half ago and fired at the car he was driving.

They came out from between the trees.  He was driving an unmarked civilian car.  He told me how fast he drove till he escaped.  My husband was with him in the car.

On the road I noticed the destruction of the metal partition of the highway.  I asked him: “Is this because of a storm?.”  He said these are the traces of battles.

The forth bridge on our way in, and the area around it are dangerous to be in.  I saw a tank and a barricade over the bridge.

We started coming up on al-Qazzaz area, where there are two major Mukhabarat stations: Patrols, and the Palestine Branch.  In this area a booby trapped car exploded last year when the area was crowded killing many civilians and soldiers.  Here there is a barricade for the Army.

Stopping on these barricades became the daily routine of Syrians.  You have to leave your house well early enough according to your experience in how much time it takes to go through these barricades.  People bring tools of entertainment to kill time.

It was very cold where the Siberian Storm Olga was closing on Damascus. On this barricade I noticed smoke coming from a structure built on the island in the middle of the highway.  The soldiers of the barricade set up a little enclave composed of stacked cement blocks that has a hole for smoke coming out of.  The walls were few meters each direction.

We heard another artillery piece firing in the distance.  It was about ten minutes from the first shot I heard. We approached the barricade and were checked.  I saw two of the men of the barricade sitting close to the wood stove which has a tube about a meter long taking the smoke not that far away.  They were getting worm circling the stove, smoking; a very depressing scene with temperature well bellow zero.

After this area the road became filled with cars, where I felt relatively safer.  The snow started falling heavy.

I reached my home while the snow was still falling heavy outside.  The house was dark because the sun had went down plus the absence of electricity.  Electricity became the dearest product that is absent from the life of Syrians.  Continiuos deliberate sabotage of Electrical plants plus the absence of fuel amidst sanctions made the Syrian people be deprived of electricity.  Without Electricity there is no heating.  This grueling winter became harder with this Siberian Storm.  There is no Mazot that is the most important product in these days.

Syrians searched for alternatives and they started depending on trees and whatever is growing.  Wood business became a profitable business.  Many unemployed found a new career: wood cutting.  The skill of the wood cutter came back to life after it was almost gone.  One ton of wood is sold for more than ten thousand Liras.  Wood stoves are back .

I remember friends from Alleoppo who visited us.  Of course these days people has to talk about the important issue of heating.  They told us that in their neighborhood in Alleppo there used to be a very big tree that is planted in the sidewalk a long time ago .  Everyone from the hood had played underneath it when they were kids, parked there cars under its shade, and enjoyed its smell and looks.  Now, this tree is gone because the people of the street decided to cut it and divide it amongst each other for heating.  There is no place for memories in times of distress.

The artillery kept on shooting periodically.  They did not use the multiple rocket launchers this time.  The sound of the multiple rocket launcher is like thunder.

In spite of all of this I was able to sleep a little. Damascus was all white the next day.  It was very cold also.

At home I hear the artillery shooting from an area closer to our home.  Shelling continued in spite of the snow.  The intervals between the artilleries discharges varied.   Some time it may be as long as one or two hours, or just ten minutes between two shots.

Getting food is not easy these days in Damascus.  High prices made people not spend to a high degree.  Prices increase weekly, if not daily.  All blame the high prices on the dollar.  These days even that selling parsley takes only American dollars.

This day Damascus was very cold with snow everywhere.

The men manning the barricades were still there.  Someone with us tried to give an apple to one of the soldiers.  The soldier could not accept because his fingers were frozen.  These men are living some horrible condition.  My cousin told me the other day that to boots stuck to the feet of her son, a conscript in al-Zabadani, because he wore it way to many days in the freezing temperatures.

I went out again at night looking for an internet cafe to print a text.  We had no electricity at the house.  I went to al-Mazah Sheikh Sa’ad, where it was very cold, but, what you think, the place was super busy.

There were people everywhere with cars lining up the streets.  Traffic jams were everywhere.

There were people selling things on the sidewalk; turmus, fuul, coffee, Cappiccino.  I was surprised with what I saw for many reasons; the first was the extreme cold.  The second reason is the absence of fear  because of the violence that hit this area many times.  This area was targeted by many booby trapped cars for sectarian reasons because of its proximity to the 86 neighborhood.  The third reason for why I was taken by seeing that many people out in the cold,  is the astronomical high prices that is making the Syrians poor.

Although the Syrian Lira had lost %100 of its value, merchants took advantage of that and increased prices more than triple of that percentage.  This is leading into the spreading of poverty in amongst Syrians.

I entered the first internet cafe where the space was filled with cigarette smoke, although there is a ban on smoking in communal places in Syria.  It looks like every Syrian is taking advantage of this crisis in his own way.  The place was very loud and crowded.

The owner came to me to apologize for not having any empty space for me.  He pointed another cafe that provided the same services.

Of course my luck was not better in the second cafe.  This place was colder, but still it was filled.  The owner of this place also pointed me into a third place, where I found one empty spot.

After two hours, and after the clock was after ten at night, I passed by Autostrad al-Mazzeh to get back home.  I saw the stores open with less than average number of clients.  Damascus is trying to survive.  It is resisting in spite of all of these tragedies.

The next day was my day to go back.  I did not hear the sound of artillery in the morning till 11 am, when I left the house.

I saw many helicopters going back and forth on a route.

Before we left the house we read al-Fatiha many times along with many Du’a after Du’a, because anywhere you go in Damascus has inside a suicidal adventure.  Danger is everywhere.

Stopping on the barricades, stopping at a traffic light, and any type of traffic jam, all of these hold inside the fear of the possibility of a booby trapped car blowing up.  There is fear every where I went.

I asked the driver about every inch of the place.  He is a Damascene born and grew up in al-Midan.  He told me that his parents stayed there till last year when they were forced to leave their homes for sectarian reasons.

We had to cross five bridges till reaching the airport through al-Muhallaq al-Janubi.

In the beginning the traffic was slow and not like normal.  I asked the driver about the reason and he said that these are unsafe area. If you look to the right there is Daria, which is only 3-4 kilometers from the highway.  This area is filled with orchard and agricultural lots.

Moving towards the second bridge traffic stayed sparse, less than normal.  The driver was exceeding 150 km per hour because he wanted to pass the dangerous areas.  Here in front and to the right are the areas of Nahr Aisha, al-Midan and al-Zahira.

Upon reaching the third bridge the left over from the previous battles, or what is called the Battle of the Airport, were everywhere.  You can see the metal partition separating both sides of the road smashed in many areas.

There is an ambulance belonging to the UN burnt and left on the side of the road.  I took a picture of it from a distance. I could not take good pictures because of the high speed we were traveling in, also one should hide the camera when approaching the barricades. Every now and then here you see a tank on either side of the road.

When we got closer to the fourth bridge I asked the driver if we could stay with the other cars.  He replied and said that we passed Aqraba and Bayt Sahm, which are dangerous areas and that now we are in areas relatively less dangerous.

Before the fifth bridge we saw a barricade from the distance.  We also saw a truck that is carrying loose wheat driving sideways.  Behind it there were three or four smaller trucks.  We were stopped for few minutes.  I started to panic.  Traffic was not moving.  I asked the driver whether this barricade belonged to the Army or to any other party.  He said that this is for the regular (Assad) Army, even through you can not distinguish between the different groups since they all wear the same uniforms and erect barricades.

I asked him: Should we go back?  Is there any danger?

Traffic started moving.  We reached the barricade.  It was manned by the army.  The soldiers had also built a little house and put a tent on top of it.   You still see the stove and the smoke coming out. We started getting closer to the airport.  The driver seemed to be at more ease.  He said that we reached the area of al-Jawiyah (The Air Force Intelligence).

We reach the airport.  The parking lot is about 100 meters away for security reasons.

Of course the plane is late because of some mechanical problems.

Syrian opposition failure to form transitional government a ‘big blow’
Reuters, Jan 21, 2013

Syrian government has pattern of attacking bakeries, bread lines
By Roy Gutman and Paul Raymond | McClatchy Newspapers

Two Syrian opposition groups say government forces have attacked bread lines and bakeries at least 100 times, causing hundreds of casualties and in most cases destroying the bakeries. A McClatchy investigation found another source for 80 of those attacks, either from videos posted on YouTube at the time of each attack or from subsequent interviews with eyewitnesses, activists and municipal council officials. The attacks couldn’t have been inadvertent: At least 14 bakeries were targeted more than once, in some instances four or five times over months. A spokesman for the U.N.’s high commissioner for human rights said the findings suggested a government strategy, and he called for an end to such attacks….

The Syrian Revolution General Commission said 360 people had been killed while standing in bread lines or inside bakeries through late December and more than 500 were wounded…

Jordan Feature: The Kingdom’s “Syria Problem” (Pelham)
by Nicolas Pelham writes for The New York Review of Books:

….One renegade Syrian officer told me in November that a thousand rebels recuperating in Jordan, whom he called mujahideen, had already returned to the front, despite having signed Jordanian waivers stating that they were heading home and would not fight. Since then, the numbers have multiplied as the battle against the Assad regime moves to the southern suburbs of Damascus. And though most of the munitions entering Syria come across other borders, a merchant with ties to the well-established Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is running guns to groups in southern Syria, according to a Western diplomat.

Despite Jordan’s claims that it is vetting the rebels to keep radicals out, the kingdom has become a prime source for foreign recruits. Abu Muhammad al-Tahawi, a Jordanian Jihadi preacher from Irbid who was jailed in 2005 for plotting to attack Americans and Israelis in the city, claims his followers have sent some 350 fighters into Syria, including some fifty last month alone. While the numbers cannot be verified, Jordanians were on a list of foreign nationals who have joined the rebel cause and been killed in the conflict, according to a list the Syrian government presented to the UN last fall. A new study by the Quilliam Foundation also suggests that Jabhat al-Nasra is highly disciplined and that “Iraqis and Jordanians constitute the main body of foreigners” who have joined its ranks.

All of this has posed a complicated challenge for Jordan’s King Abdullah. Although the King has called for Assad to step down, he also hopes to maintain a more secular order in a new Syria and has long been wary of how the conflict is giving his own Muslim Brotherhood growing clout. For years the Brotherhood has been one of the most organized political forces in the kingdom. And while the movement has remained loyal to the monarchy and worked within the system, its leaders has shown an increasing readiness to challenge royal authority in recent months, as their counterparts in other countries have swept to power. “If the Middle East is going to be run by the Brotherhood, we’re all screwed, and you can kiss moderate Islam goodbye,” a senior government official recently told me….

In an attempt to prevent Syria from turning Islamist, Abdullah has turned to Western powers for help. Citing concern that Syria’s chemical weapons’ stockpiles could fall into the wrong hands, he has welcomed more than a hundred American, British, and French military advisers into Jordan to address this menace, as well as deal with the influx of refugees and help prevent a spillover of the conflict itself. Meanwhile, Jordanian officials have strongly backed Western efforts to replace the Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council with a mixed-bag opposition that is inclusive of Alawites and other minorities…..

A SYRIA STRATEGY FOR OBAMA – WINEP
By Andrew J. Tabler, January 17, 2013

This piece is part of “Obama and the Middle East: Act Two,” a series of policy proposals for the president’s second term by Washington Institute fellows. To read this and other installments, go to:

A Syria expert offers three bold steps to hasten the end of Assad’s regime.

The Assad regime’s brutal suppression of the Syrian uprising has spurred a humanitarian disaster, with the United Nations now estimating over 60,000 killed and 3 million displaced. Syrians are now dying of starvation and exposure as food and medical supplies run desperately short. The regime continues to escalate its attacks with the use of artillery, combat aircraft, and, most recently, SCUD and reportedly Fatah 110 missiles against the armed and civilian opposition.

The Obama administration has repeatedly voiced its concern that the Assad regime is considering using its chemical weapons stockpile, which includes sarin nerve gas and mustard gas, against its domestic opponents. The U.S. government reportedly even investigated the possible use of a chemical agent last month in Homs. At the same time, Washington has refused to fulfill the opposition’s request for more and better weapons that would help it end the regime’s onslaught, sowing anti-American sentiment that is being increasingly harvested by Islamic extremists and al-Qaeda affiliates. There is now a real danger that the regime’s chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militants sworn to destroy the United States and its regional allies……

Obama administration …should now take bold steps to hasten the end of Assad’s regime. … Patriot missile batteries in an offensive capacity against regime aircraft … safe areas would provide a vital place for …Opposition Forces (SOC) to politically organize and provide assistance directly to Syrian civilians. If properly defended, diplomats, officials, and aid representatives from the international community could work side by side with Syrians to help alleviate suffering and build a viable government for post-Assad Syria. ….Such an integrated plan would …provide real inducements to armed groups that will soon take over large …yrian territory to hand over any captured chemical weapons to the United States and its allies. …

Should Obama Have Intervened in Syria?
Or would U.S. military involvement merely have made a disaster worse?
BY MARC LYNCH | JANUARY 17, 2013 – Foreign Policy

….What about arming the opposition? There was a debate to be had there last year, but it’s long since been overtaken by events. The United States wisely resisted sending arms into the fray based on concerns about cutting off its diplomatic options, empowering local warlords, and paving the path toward a longer and bloodier civil war. But others, particularly in the Gulf, were not so restrained, and persistent calls for more money and guns aside Syrian armed groups are now awash with weapons. The worst effects of arming the opposition have now already taken place, and the United States throwing more guns onto the fire would now have at best a marginal impact…..

Don’t Wait for Assad’s Fall to Prepare for Transition
by Bradley Bosserman, Director of  the Middle East and North Africa Initiative at the New Policy Institute.

….There are fighters outside Aleppo and Damascus giving their lives each day in a grueling battle for a free Syria. Those wishing to support them need to make sure that the tools to build that new country will be ready when those brave revolutionaries call for them…..Yaser Tabbara, a Syrian-American member of the opposition, explains that the SOC has conducted studies that reveal the “cost of the management of the liberated areas” to be “close to the neighborhood of $500 million a month”. The largest donation thus far has been a commitment from Saudi Arabia of $100 million. But even Tabbara’s estimates are woefully low. In reality, a successful Syrian transition will cost billions of dollars. If the United States and the international community wish to see the formation of a democratic, stable, and secure country, they need to plan now for funding the transition.

Jerusalem Post: Over 100 people reportedly massacred in Syria’s Homs
2013-01-17

BEIRUT – More than 100 people were shot, stabbed or possibly burned to death by government forces in the Syrian city of Homs, a monitoring group said on Thursday, and fierce fighting raged across the country. The British-based Syrian Observatory for …

Syrian opposition failure to form transitional government a ‘big blow’
Reuters, Jan 21, 2013

Syrian government has pattern of attacking bakeries, bread lines
By Roy Gutman and Paul Raymond | McClatchy Newspapers

Two Syrian opposition groups say government forces have attacked bread lines and bakeries at least 100 times, causing hundreds of casualties and in most cases destroying the bakeries. A McClatchy investigation found another source for 80 of those attacks, either from videos posted on YouTube at the time of each attack or from subsequent interviews with eyewitnesses, activists and municipal council officials. The attacks couldn’t have been inadvertent: At least 14 bakeries were targeted more than once, in some instances four or five times over months. A spokesman for the U.N.’s high commissioner for human rights said the findings suggested a government strategy, and he called for an end to such attacks….

The Syrian Revolution General Commission said 360 people had been killed while standing in bread lines or inside bakeries through late December and more than 500 were wounded…

Jordan Feature: The Kingdom’s “Syria Problem” (Pelham)
by Nicolas Pelham writes for The New York Review of Books:

….One renegade Syrian officer told me in November that a thousand rebels recuperating in Jordan, whom he called mujahideen, had already returned to the front, despite having signed Jordanian waivers stating that they were heading home and would not fight. Since then, the numbers have multiplied as the battle against the Assad regime moves to the southern suburbs of Damascus. And though most of the munitions entering Syria come across other borders, a merchant with ties to the well-established Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is running guns to groups in southern Syria, according to a Western diplomat.

Despite Jordan’s claims that it is vetting the rebels to keep radicals out, the kingdom has become a prime source for foreign recruits. Abu Muhammad al-Tahawi, a Jordanian Jihadi preacher from Irbid who was jailed in 2005 for plotting to attack Americans and Israelis in the city, claims his followers have sent some 350 fighters into Syria, including some fifty last month alone. While the numbers cannot be verified, Jordanians were on a list of foreign nationals who have joined the rebel cause and been killed in the conflict, according to a list the Syrian government presented to the UN last fall. A new study by the Quilliam Foundation also suggests that Jabhat al-Nasra is highly disciplined and that “Iraqis and Jordanians constitute the main body of foreigners” who have joined its ranks.

All of this has posed a complicated challenge for Jordan’s King Abdullah. Although the King has called for Assad to step down, he also hopes to maintain a more secular order in a new Syria and has long been wary of how the conflict is giving his own Muslim Brotherhood growing clout. For years the Brotherhood has been one of the most organized political forces in the kingdom. And while the movement has remained loyal to the monarchy and worked within the system, its leaders has shown an increasing readiness to challenge royal authority in recent months, as their counterparts in other countries have swept to power. “If the Middle East is going to be run by the Brotherhood, we’re all screwed, and you can kiss moderate Islam goodbye,” a senior government official recently told me….

In an attempt to prevent Syria from turning Islamist, Abdullah has turned to Western powers for help. Citing concern that Syria’s chemical weapons’ stockpiles could fall into the wrong hands, he has welcomed more than a hundred American, British, and French military advisers into Jordan to address this menace, as well as deal with the influx of refugees and help prevent a spillover of the conflict itself. Meanwhile, Jordanian officials have strongly backed Western efforts to replace the Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council with a mixed-bag opposition that is inclusive of Alawites and other minorities…..

A SYRIA STRATEGY FOR OBAMA – WINEP
By Andrew J. Tabler, January 17, 2013

This piece is part of “Obama and the Middle East: Act Two,” a series of policy proposals for the president’s second term by Washington Institute fellows. To read this and other installments, go to:

A Syria expert offers three bold steps to hasten the end of Assad’s regime.

The Assad regime’s brutal suppression of the Syrian uprising has spurred a humanitarian disaster, with the United Nations now estimating over 60,000 killed and 3 million displaced. Syrians are now dying of starvation and exposure as food and medical supplies run desperately short. The regime continues to escalate its attacks with the use of artillery, combat aircraft, and, most recently, SCUD and reportedly Fatah 110 missiles against the armed and civilian opposition.

The Obama administration has repeatedly voiced its concern that the Assad regime is considering using its chemical weapons stockpile, which includes sarin nerve gas and mustard gas, against its domestic opponents. The U.S. government reportedly even investigated the possible use of a chemical agent last month in Homs. At the same time, Washington has refused to fulfill the opposition’s request for more and better weapons that would help it end the regime’s onslaught, sowing anti-American sentiment that is being increasingly harvested by Islamic extremists and al-Qaeda affiliates. There is now a real danger that the regime’s chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militants sworn to destroy the United States and its regional allies……

Obama administration …should now take bold steps to hasten the end of Assad’s regime. … Patriot missile batteries in an offensive capacity against regime aircraft … safe areas would provide a vital place for …Opposition Forces (SOC) to politically organize and provide assistance directly to Syrian civilians. If properly defended, diplomats, officials, and aid representatives from the international community could work side by side with Syrians to help alleviate suffering and build a viable government for post-Assad Syria. ….Such an integrated plan would …provide real inducements to armed groups that will soon take over large …yrian territory to hand over any captured chemical weapons to the United States and its allies. …

Don’t Wait for Assad’s Fall to Prepare for Transition
by Bradley Bosserman, Director of  the Middle East and North Africa Initiative at the New Policy Institute.

….There are fighters outside Aleppo and Damascus giving their lives each day in a grueling battle for a free Syria. Those wishing to support them need to make sure that the tools to build that new country will be ready when those brave revolutionaries call for them…..Yaser Tabbara, a Syrian-American member of the opposition, explains that the SOC has conducted studies that reveal the “cost of the management of the liberated areas” to be “close to the neighborhood of $500 million a month”. The largest donation thus far has been a commitment from Saudi Arabia of $100 million. But even Tabbara’s estimates are woefully low. In reality, a successful Syrian transition will cost billions of dollars. If the United States and the international community wish to see the formation of a democratic, stable, and secure country, they need to plan now for funding the transition.

Jerusalem Post: Over 100 people reportedly massacred in Syria’s Homs
2013-01-17

BEIRUT – More than 100 people were shot, stabbed or possibly burned to death by government forces in the Syrian city of Homs, a monitoring group said on Thursday, and fierce fighting raged across the country. The British-based Syrian Observatory for …

Syria: Is It Too Late?
Frederic C. Hof | January 14, 2013

Syria is dying. Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that the price of his removal is the death of the nation. A growing extremist minority in the armed opposition has made it clear that a Syria of citizenship and civil society is, in its view, an abomination to be killed. And those in the middle long begging for Western security assistance are increasingly bemoaning that it is already too late. Between the cold, cynical sectarianism of Assad and the white-hot sectarian hatred of those extremists among his opponents Syria already is all but gone, a body politic as numbingly cold and colorless as the harsh wintry hell bringing misery and hopelessness to untold numbers of displaced Syrians…..

And yet, what if the arm’s length approach to the armed Syrian opposition is precisely the wrong medicine for a patient at or near death’s door? What if an approach seen by its advocates as the very epitome of prudence is in fact the opposite? What if the United States can help shape a decent, civilized outcome in Syria by providing security assistance to select opposition elements, and do so with no US boots on the ground? What if it can help in the context of lethality but consciously elects not to?….

In a recent article, I urged the Syrian Opposition Council and Supreme Military Council to cooperate in forming a provisional government, one offering an alternative to the regime by standing up for Syria’s minorities and for democratic, civil society based on the supremacy of citizenship. A person prominent in Syrian opposition affairs wrote soon thereafter to say that the appetite for a provisional government was being dampened by the fear of insufficient material support from the West, a deficit that would cause its rapid failure and permanent loss of credibility, all for the benefit of Assad. To be sure there are many ways to articulate the “it’s too late” mantra. What they all have in common is the view that American actions will never match American words.

In truth the American taxpayer has hardly been AWOL from Syria’s struggle, as the United States leads the world in providing humanitarian assistance to desperately needy Syrians….Syria’s fate will likely be decided by men with guns. If a firm, irrevocable decision is in place that the United States will not play in this arena, then it may indeed be too late for Syria as the Assad/al-Qaeda tag team crowds out all other opponents from the ring, making Syria ungovernable, 22.5 million Syrians vulnerable, and neighboring states fully exposed to a catastrophe that could persist for decades.

Brookings: The Road Beyond Damascus
2013-01-17

If the United States does not take on a more active leadership role in Syria, the country will become a failed state, a second Somalia in the heartland of the Middle East. Michael Doran and Salman Shaikh drafted this memorandum to President Obama as …

• How can the U.S. provide greater leadership and concrete assistance without direct military intervention?
• What countries should be part of an American-led international support group?
• How should President Obama engage with Russia President Vladamir Putin, who wants Assad as part of transition talks?

….through active intervention you can help ensure a more stable transition to a post-Assad order that will provide a better future for the Syrian people and a strategic gain for the United States and its regional friends.In your first term, when it came to the Syrian revolution, you wagered that the risks of active intervention outweighed the risks of a more cautious approach. Now, however, we believe the massive toll of civilian casualties, the dismemberment of the country, and the intensification of the conflict along sectarian lines dictate a revisiting of your decision.

Recommendation:

To stave off disaster and play a leadership role in shaping Syria’s future, the United States should provide lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, forge a genuine national dialogue that includes Alawis and Christians, and create an International Steering Group (ISG) to oversee and lend support to the transitional process, including the creation of an international stabilization force to provide protection to Syrian civilians. You will need to engage directly with President Putin to overcome already weakening Russian resistance to these essential endeavors.

Marlin Dick of the Daily Star tries to nail down the truth about a recent rebel offensive in Suweida, the capital of the Jabal Druze region.

Syrian Rebels Find Hearts and Minds Elusive

Rebel fighters in a neighborhood of Damascus on Tuesday. Many Syrians remain wary of the opposition and its assurances of how it would govern the country.
By ANNE BARNARD
Published: January 15, 2013

Syrian opposition leaders in exile have repeatedly offered promises that a future Syria will guarantee equal rights to all citizens regardless of religion and ethnicity, including members of President Assad’s minority Alawite sect, and that government officials without “blood on their hands” will be safe. But that has done little to win the allegiance of a significant bloc of Syrians who are wary of the uprising.

“The opposition is in fact helping to hold the regime together,” said Peter Harling, an analyst with the International Crisis Group who meets in Syria with people on all sides of the conflict. “It seems to have no strategy to speak of when it comes to preserving what’s left of the state, wooing the Alawites within the regime or reaching out to those who don’t know who to hate most, the regime or the opposition.”…

Consulate Supported Claim of Syria Gas Attack, Report Says
By MICHAEL R. GORDON: January 15, 2013

WASHINGTON — A State Department cable asserted that Syrian forces might have used poison gas in December, according to a report by Foreignpolicy.com on Tuesday.

The classified cable was sent by the United States consul general in Istanbul, according to the Web site, and it discussed a consulate investigation into allegations that chemical weapons were used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23…. President Obama has said the use of chemical weapons by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad would cross a “red line” and possibly set off American military intervention.

Political Violence At A Glance
by

CNN: Gruesome toll of Syria cluster bombs
2013-01-17

It was cloudy the afternoon of January 3 when residents say the cluster bombs fell on the Syrian town of Latamneh.

Report says Assad residing on warship [This story has been dismissed as having “no basis” by the CIA]
2013-01-14

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Jan. 14 (UPI) — Syrian President Bashar Assad and his family have been living on a warship, with security provided by Russia, intelligence sources told a Saudi newspaper. …

The circumstances reinforce Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comment Sunday that Assad’s removal from power is “impossible to implement,” the newspaper said. Assad’s presence on the ship could be a sign of looming negotiations on the conflict in Syria, the report said. “It is necessary to make everybody, including the opposition, which is still categorically denying any dialogue, to sit down at the negotiating table, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty quoted Lavrov as saying during a visit to the Ukraine.

For one Syrian officer, a months-long wait for the chance to defect to Turkey
Carol Morello JAN 12 – Wash Post

Despite a wave of defections of top officers and draining morale, he says Syria’s military remains strong….

“I think it will take more than six months,” said Hassoun, who taught engineering to about 1,000 army cadets at the Assad Military Academy in Aleppo, during an interview at an Antakya cafe. “The regime’s army is strong and well-trained. It has fighter jets and tanks.”

On his way to Turkey, Hassoun said, he met FSA fighters armed only with shotguns. “The regime can do more killing with one airstrike than the FSA can do with many attacks,” he said.

Although his is just one man’s account, Hassoun’s decision to defect, and the dangers it entailed, helps explain why even more officers have not followed suit.

Hassoun said he spent his adult life in the army, entering the Aleppo academy when he was 18.

He said he was optimistic in 2000, when Bashar al-Assad became president. Hassoun hoped that the son of Hafez al-Assad, the late president, would usher in reforms for society and the military….

Worries about a ‘failed state’ in Syria,
by David Ignatius, Washington Post

…State Department reports North Syria descending toward anarchy, Picture of disorganized rebels, greedy arms peddlers and profiteering warlords … This security vacuum in the Aleppo region appears to have helped Jabhat al-Nusra, which is allied with al-Qaeda. The group is benefiting not just from its prowess on the battlefield but from its refusal to engage in looting and other predatory behavior. In its emphasis on crude but egalitarian justice and social services, Jabhat al-Nusra emulates other successful Muslim extremist organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan. –

Aleppo Dispatch: The Dark Side of the Syrian Opposition – The Atlantic

–Why civilians are turning from the Free Syrian Army — and into the arms of Islamist groups...In a country where the rule of law is vanishing as the state increasingly recedes, every fighter is policeman and prosecutor. Some have embraced their newfound powers judiciously. Most, however, have abused it. This exploitation of the war has reduced support for nationalist FSA units. Instead, Syrians are increasingly backing Islamists who largely eschew the material spoils of war.

One man who has enriched himself is Ahmad Afash, leader of the Free Syria Brigade from the village of Anadan, just north of Aleppo. At the mention of his name, rebels from neighboring hamlets either curse it or fall silent out of embarrassment. “Afash steals everything from grain to cars,” an FSA fighter says. “He justifies this by saying no one wants to give him money to fund his battalion.”

Rebels lament that men like Afash have taken up arms for spoils and glory rather than a national duty to topple the regime bombarding civilian areas daily. His name has become notorious for the FSA’s excesses, tarnishing its image throughout the province of Aleppo….

6 Months Of Combat, And No Victor In Aleppo, Syria’s Biggest City (RADIO) : NPR

Some six months after Syria’s rebels tried to storm the country’s largest city, they can claim the eastern part of Aleppo and perhaps 60 percent overall. In the west, the government army has the remaining 40 percent of the city.

The line dividing these two areas is supposedly the front line in Aleppo’s war. But lately the front has gone cold, as people here say in Arabic.

You can still hear shots. But peering through a tiny little hole in a stone wall separating the two sides, this particular part of government-held Aleppo looks like a no man’s land. There’s a lot of trash, abandoned buildings, a mosque that looks like it’s been abandoned.

The shots are from a government sniper, posted on top of one of those abandoned buildings. Although there’s not much fighting here anymore, government soldiers sometimes try to pick off rebel fighters or civilians who cross from one side to another.

Marwa just crossed the front line. She and her sister sometimes make this perilous crossing twice a day. One day, a sniper almost killed her sister.

Marwa works on the government side but lives on the rebel side. She says life is almost normal on the government side — there’s more electricity and bread. When asked whether she feels like she has a dual personality, she replies, yes, this is the reality….

Right now this cold front line is a lot like the fight for Syria: Both sides think they can win, but neither side is winning, so neither side is going to back down….As one Syrian civilian leader in the city said: If we use logic, it [win] could happen in three months. If we don’t, it could be years.

 Rape has become ‘significant’ part of Syrian war, says humanitarian group – By Jenna Johnson, Wash Post

Rape has become a “significant and disturbing feature” of the war in Syria, one that many refugees cite as their leading reason for fleeing the country, according to a report released Monday by a New York-based humanitarian organization.

More than 50 countries called on the U.N. Security Council to refer the crisis in Syria to the International Criminal Court.

FALLOUT FROM THE FALL OF TAFTANAZ
By Andrew J. Tabler, Jeffrey White, and Aaron Zelin

The latest rebel success, while significant in battlefield terms, has empowered extremist forces and further highlighted Washington’s insufficient support for Syria’s mainstream opposition…..

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WAR

For the rebels, the airbase capture indicates that major regime positions in the provinces are vulnerable. But it also suggests that better-defended areas — such as Damascus and environs, where regime forces are relatively dense and well supported — will remain a serious challenge…..

The Syrian Islamic Front is a conglomeration of eleven “brigades” outside the FSA. Formed last December, it lacks JN’s coherent structure. Ideologically, the SIF can best be described as a collection of locally focused jihadists with no known connections to al-Qaeda. Three of the brigades took part in the Taftanaz battle: Kataib Ahrar al-Sham (the SIF’s leading unit), Jamaat al-Taliah al-Islamiyah, and Harakat al-Fajr al-Islamiyah. Like JN, the SIF’s goal is to establish an Islamic state based on Salafi interpretations of Islam, but only within Syria proper. The video announcing the group’s creation indicates that its funding comes from the Qatar Charity Organization and Turkey’s Humanitarian Relief Fund (IHH), which supports U.S.-designated terrorist groups such as Hamas….

The Syrian Liberation Front is another grouping of so-called brigades outside the FSA, founded last September. The smallest faction involved in the Taftanaz operation was Liwa Dawoud, one of the eight battalions within Suqur al-Sham, a leading SLF brigade. Ideologically similar to the SIF, the SLF hopes to establish an Islamic state in Syria; its members are a mix of Muslim Brotherhood-type Islamists and Salafists who are less radical than those in the SIF and JN. The SLF is believed to receive funding from the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and wealthy Persian Gulf donors.

Given their demonstrated fighting prowess, these Islamist forces have earned much respect from Syrians. Unlike some FSA groups, which have increasingly been accused of corruption in places such as Aleppo, JN, the SIF, and the SLF are viewed as fair brokers that do not take advantage of the downtrodden. Unless something changes, Islamists are likely to play a significant role in northern Syria following the regime’s departure….

Al-Nusra – Hussein Jemmo examines the reasons behind the rise of al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, and argues that the battle for Syria is only one step in a wider regional strategy for this group. Al-Monitor

Jabhat al-Nusra’s Goals Extend Beyond Syria – Al-Hayat (Pan Arab)

At the end of December, in an unprecedented move, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, addressed “the people of Syria and the mujahedeen.”

The speech suggested that the militant front has become the main force in the fight against the Syrian regime, with no mention of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Instead, the Islamist group’s leader replaced the term “FSA” with “the brigades and militant groups.”

The speech came in response to the United States designation of Jabhat al-Nusra as a foreign terrorist organization. But it seemed obvious that Julani was speaking from a strong position, warning that “those who sowed the seeds of the revolution will be the ones to reap its fruits.” He also warned his supporters and the people of Syria against attempts to replace the Syrian regime with a Western one.

The speech indicates that the FSA is being subsumed. After having been the leading military entity in the Syrian revolution, the FSA has been pushed to the sidelines compared to Jabhat al-Nusra. The militant praised those parties that have condemned the US decision to designate it as a terrorist group.

During my visit to Aleppo, I got the impression that Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamist factions were still on the sidelines of the conflict in Aleppo’s countryside. However, inside the city the situation was different, as expected. Jihadist organizations, mainly Jabhat al-Nusra, were well informed and aware of what was taking place at the international and regional levels.

To begin to understand how Jabhat al-Nusra managed to establish itself in this environment, another question must be asked: Is this militant faction merely seasonal, and will it cease to exist when the regime falls — or will it persist to implement a plan that goes far beyond Syria?

War strategy

In Aleppo’s countryside, a member of Jabhat al-Nusra showed me a booklet entitled “Regional War Strategy in Syria.” The booklet represents a serious vision by an al-Qaeda analyst. It is available on the internet and helps explain the carefully planned beginnings of jihadism in Syria. According to the study, “The title of the next battle of Damascus will be ‘survival of the smartest,'” and explains how the jihadist environment began to emerge in Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra bases its work in Syria on three pillars…..

Time: Uprooted by Syria’s war: ‘Is there a worse way to live than this?’ – CNN.com
2013-01-14

(CNN) — Sharifa lost her foot when the Syrian jets swooped down and fired missiles at the house. Now the hijab-clad girl sits jaded in a dirty, hardscrabble displaced persons camp near Turkey, growing up fast, confused and far from home. CNN …

Independent: ‘It’s only fit for rats’: Syrian refugees on brink of disaster
2013-01-14 18:57:42.702 GMT

http://rss.feedsportal.com/c/266/f/3503/s/2783b42e/l/0L0Sindependent0O0Cnews0Cworld0Cmiddle0Eeast0Cits0Eonly0Efit0Efor0Erats0Esyrian0Erefugees0Eon0Ebrink0Eof0Edisaster0E84514430Bhtml/story01.htm

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The tattered rug of the floor of Radwan Salim’s tent is still damp after icy water swept through his tent last week. He sought refuge under a shop veranda with his wife and the 16 other members of his extended family living in the plastic-covered …

RUSSIA SAYS UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO HOLD SYRIA TALKS IN JAN: IFX
2013-01-14
SWISS ASK COUNCIL TO REFER SYRIA CRIMES TO INT. CRIMINAL COURT
2013-01-14
Gary Gambill: Don’t blame America for Syrian strife
Gary Gambill, National Post | Jan 14, 2013
…the claim that jihadists “hijacked” the revolution because ordinary citizens had nowhere else to turn is misleading. Syria had been experiencing a Sunni Islamist revival for years prior to the current uprising. Assad managed to contain it by easing government control over religious expression and sponsoring Islamist causes in Iraq and Palestine. However, there was never any doubt that a precipitous breakdown of state authority would produce a radical Islamist counterforce, particularly in an atmosphere of sustained sectarian polarization and violence. And there was never any doubt that the Sunni Arab Gulf monarchies would actively cultivate this counterforce as a means of gaining equity in Syria’s postwar political order and appeasing jihadists at home….

Syria rebels seize base as envoy holds talksThe capture of Taftanaz air base, after months of sporadic fighting, could help rebels solidify their hold on northern Syria, according to Rami Abdelrahman, head of the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. But Yezid Sayigh, at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, said it was not a game-changer, noting that it had taken months for the rebels to overrun a base whose usefulness to the military was already compromised by the clashes around it. “This is a tactical rather than a strategic gain,” he said.

Failure of Syria Talks Signal Conflict May Be Long Struggle“There’s little sign that we’re any closer to any political solution to this crisis,” said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding. “Because there are divisions in the international community between the United States and Russia, between key regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran, there is not a core constituency who are pushing for one single solution to the crisis in Syria.”

Panetta: US Troops Securing Syria’s Chemical Weapons Not an Option in ‘Hostile Atmosphere’Panetta said Thursday that the U.S. is “not working on options that involve boots on the ground.” But he added that ” you always have to keep the possibility that, if there is a peaceful transition and international organizations get involved, that they might ask for assistance in that situation.  But in a hostile situation, we’re not planning for that.”

CNN: Syrian officers beg al-Assad to help gain their freedom from rebels
2013-01-15

(CNN) — Two captured Syrian military officers are begging President Bashar al-Assad to help free them from rebels. On Tuesday, a video was posted online purportedly showing the two men, who said they were abducted last October by the Free Syrian …

Syria’s Cu;cultural Heritage Casualty of War – Post Global

At once professional and prescient
January 14, 2013 01:49 AM
By Marlin Dick
The Daily Star

BEIRUT: The late Adib Khair was an innovative Syrian television producer, perhaps best known for igniting the Turkish soap opera craze across the Arab Middle East. He was eulogized Sunday as a pioneer, dedicated to bringing professional standards to his country’s industry.The 48-year-old Khair succumbed to a heart attack Saturday during a visit to Beirut and died at Hotel Dieu hospital. His funeral took place the following day in Damascus.