I recently received this question from an Israeli-based journalist:

Dear Joshua,

There's been quite a lot of chastisement of Syria recently (Merkel, as you note on your site, and others), along with Olmert's statements (twice in two weeks) about wanting talks with Syria. And quite a lot of diplomacy going on with the Rice and Cheney visits. Do you think this mix of threat and blandishment might signal a new effort to engage with Syria?

I responded as follows:

No, I do not. I believe there is a full court press to ratchet up the pressure on Syria, as you say. The whiff of Golan is tantalizing but I do not think that Syria takes it as a genuine offer. Probably, a sound bet.

I cannot figure out what the US is offering Syria in exchange for pressuring Syria's allies in Lebanon to give up their demand for a blocking third in cabinet. I don't believe Washington is offering anything. The only hint we have is a whiff of Israeli peace talks. Syria does not trust this sort of blandishment. During the 1990s, the US waved a peace deal with Israel and the return of the Golan in front of Syria's nose in exchange for good Syrian behavior in Palestine and Lebanon, which Syria, by and large, delivered.

In the end, it came to naught at the famous Geneva meeting of Clinton and Assad. Clinton blamed Barak for getting "cold feet" in his memoir. Of course, Syria could have accepted less than all the Golan, as Ross makes clear.

Syria is insisting on an open and public commitment from Israel. It does not want back channels that can later be denied. It is not getting this. Israel continues to demand an unequivocal "flip" from Syria before any negotiations begin. This suggests lack of seriousness.

The West and Saudi are also trying to use the success of the Arab League Summit as a stick against Syria, but Syria's Foreign Minister has made it clear that Syria will not trade its strategic interests in Lebanon for a summit, i.e. it will not sacrifice its relations with Hizbullah for good press from Saudi Arabia.

Syria is being asked to sacrifice its strategic relations with Hizbullah for what? This is what I cannot figure out. Your question to me begs an answer to this. You assume Syria is being offered a carrot to turn against Hizbullah.

I am not sure there is a carrot. Washington's plan is not to offer carrots, but to ratchet up the economic, diplomatic, and political pain on Syria. Syria has demonstrated over the last five years that its pain threshold is very high. Assad has made good on his statement that Syria is not a charity that gives without getting.

In short, I do not see a deal in the offing. There are no concrete signs of a deal. The language and diplomacy between Washington and Damascus has only become more strained and accusatory over the last months, with added layers of sanctions. Relations between Washington and Syria have never been more strained.

Israeli based journalist replied:

Thanks for that. The carrot would have to be a deal on the Golan, and the reason I asked the question was Israel's renewed statements about wanting talks. An optimistic mind could see the Israeli overtures and the international pressure as part of the same process. But it's just as likely that they're unrelated and this is, as usual, Israeli smoke and mirrors. Olmert may be feeling the Palestinian track slipping away from him and wanting, as is the usual manner here, to frighten the Palestinians by making them think Israel will abandon them for talks with Syria. Or he may be wanting to make the Israeli public think that he has a plan for when the Palestinian track goes down the drain.

Anyway, it's all Kremlinology. Thanks again.

I responded:

Israel made the same statements about peace before the peace conference in Virginia a few months ago. It was a small opening pushed by State to lure the Syrians in, but it evaporated soon after because the US tried to follow up with Syrian concessions in Lebanon without satisfaction for Syria or its allies.

The problem, I believe, is that president Bush and the NSC are convinced that Syria is a bad actor and should not be bought. They remain convinced that the best policy is one of pressure. The State Dept has been almost entirely cut out of Syria-Lebanon policy. Hadley and Abrams are running it. It is the last red meat for the "freedom agenda" crowd in the Republican Party. It keeps them close and loyal.

Olmert can play back up to Washington threatening war or peace in order to broaden the front, but the general policy is clear. If there were a real desire to come to terms with Syria, Olmert could make this clear.

My understanding from various Israeli Defense department people i have talked to is that they see Syria as being too weak and to unwilling to make a big flip to give back the Golan.

As you can see, I do not hold out hope of any movement during the next 10 months.

The Lebanon issue has become very personal for the Syrian leadership — as it has for the Saudis and for the NSC.

My sense is that it can continue this way because, in the end, the stakes are very small for America. Lebanon is not of great importance. Neither is Syria. A small group in Washington can busy themselves with this trench warfare and turn it into a intense and personal battle, but ultimately, the American public doesn't understand the issues and doesn't really how they end up.

For Olmert, the US-Syrian contretemps are convenient because, as you explain, he can blame the lack of progress on Washington. He can also play Syria off against the Palestinians.

No one has enough cards to force a change in regional policy. My hunch is that almost everyone knows this in Washington but, as in Iraq, they are now concerned with getting to the finish line with an attitude of righteousness. They will turn over a loosing hand to the next administration and pursue the blame game, when it switches course at great expense.

Best, Joshua

EU's Solana urges pressure on Syria over Lebanon
Sun Mar 16, 2008
By Paul Taylor

BRUSSELS, March 16 (Reuters) – The European Union's foreign policy chief called on Sunday for greater pressure on Syria to allow the election of a president in Lebanon, warning of a "dramatic" crisis unless that happens this month.

In unusually blunt criticism, Javier Solana said Damascus was using proxies in Lebanon to prevent the election of armed forces chief Michel Suleiman, while the pro-Western majority in parliament was whittled away as lawmakers were killed.

The best chance to solve the issue was before a planned Arab summit in Damascus on March 29-30, because key leaders would not attend unless a new Lebanese head of state was present, he said.

"The pressure on Syria has to grow in order to solve the situation in Lebanon. I think the opportunity is there, before this summit which will take place in Damascus," Solana told the Brussels Forum on transatlantic relations.

"To tell you the truth, I'm not pretty sure that will be done. If that is not, then we get into a very serious crisis. This crisis is very dramatic," he said.

Olmert: Israel wants talks with Syria (17-03-2008)

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, addressing a joint German – Israeli cabinet session, on Monday said that Israel is interested in talking with Syria, talks which he said will lead Damascus to break with the “Axis of Evil.”

The session marked the first time cabinets from Germany and Israel have met for joint consultations, and the first time the German government held a joint cabinet session with a country outside Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Olmert chaired this historic joint session.

According to Olmert, Israel has no interest in confrontation on its northern border with Lebanon. As for the Gaza Strip, Olmert said, according to Haaretz, “The government must do everything in order to defend its citizens, and it will do so.” “At the same time,” added Olmert, “it will act to advance the peace process. Negotiations are not a default option for us, we are conducting them because we believe that there is a chance to reach an agreement.”

© 2008 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)

Iran will be at Syria summit but Lebanon may not
Sunday, 16 March, 2008

Beirut – Syria has invited its regional ally Iran to the Arab summit in Damascus and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will represent Iran, Tehran officially announced today

"The Iranian Foreign Ministry is please to confirm that Iran was invited by Syria will be represented at the summit by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki" said Mouhammad Ali Husseini, spokesman of the ministry

Reports circulated last week that the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will represent Iran as a guest of honor and will be seated next to Syrian president Bashar al Assad. It is not clear why Iran has decided to send a lower level representative.

U.S. Republican Presidential Hopeful John McCain has accused Syria and Iran of paralyzing Premier Fouad Saniora's government and lauded all Lebanese who reject the terrorism of Damascus and Tehran. "Those who are systematically killing Lebanese patriots and denying the Lebanese people their democracy must be brought to justice. I commend Lebanese of all religions and sects who reject Syrian and Iranian terror and tyranny and embrace the great principles of the Cedar Revolution," McCain said in a statement on the occasion of the third anniversary of the Cedar Revolution.

Robert Fisk: The cult of the suicide bomber

… A month-long investigation by The Independent, culling four Arabic-language newspapers, official Iraqi statistics, two Beirut news agencies and Western reports, shows that an incredible 1,121 Muslim suicide bombers have blown themselves up in Iraq. This is a very conservative figure. … This is perhaps the most frightening and ghoulish legacy of George Bush's invasion of Iraq five years ago. Suicide bombers in Iraq have killed at least 13,000 men, women and children – our most conservative estimate gives a total figure of 13,132 – and wounded a minimum of 16,112 people.

Only about 10 of the suicide bombers have been identified. One of them, who attacked an Iraqi police unit in June 2005, turned out to be a former police commando called Abu Mohamed al-Dulaimi, but the Americans and the Iraqi authorities appear to have little intelligence on the provenance of these killers. On at least 27 occasions, Iraqi officials have claimed to know the identity of the killers – saying that they had recovered passports and identity papers that proved their "foreign" origin – but they have never produced these documents for public inspection. There is even doubt that the two suicide bombers who blew themselves up in a bird market earlier this year were in fact mentally retarded young women, as the government was to allege.

Indeed, nothing could better illustrate the lack of knowledge of the authorities than the two contradictory statements made by the Americans and their Iraqi protégés in March of last year. Just as David Satterfield, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's adviser on Iraq, was claiming that "90 per cent" of suicide bombers were crossing the border from Syria, Iraq's Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, was announcing that "most" of the suiciders came from Saudi Arabia – which shares a long, common border with Iraq. Saudis would hardly waste their time travelling to Damascus to cross a border that their own country shared with Iraq. Many in Baghdad, including some government ministers, believe that the nationality of the bombers is much closer to home – that they are, in fact, Iraqis….

The trajectory of the suicide bombers shows a clear preference for military targets throughout the insurgency, with attacks on Americans gradually decreasing from 2006 and individual attacks on Iraqi police patrols and police recruits increasing over the past two years, especially in the 100 miles north of Baghdad.

Death sentence: gay Syrian teenager facing deportation

Jojo Yakob, who has asked us not to reveal his identity, is fearful of the authorities in his native Syria.
By Kurt Bayer

HIS only crime was to be gay. For that he was half-drowned, brutally beaten and then fell into a coma. He survived, escaped from jail, fled his country and eventually arrived, exhausted and bedraggled, here in Scotland. And now the Government wants to send him back.

Syrian Jojo Jako Yakob last night pleaded with the Home Office to reverse a deportation order and spare him the certain death he believes he will face if he returns to his country. "I wish to claim asylum and I wish to stay here in Scotland," he said.

Gay rights activists demanded that homosexuals, such as Yakob, who were facing clear persecution in their homeland, should be granted asylum. But a spokesman for the Syrian Embassy responded by describing homosexuality as a "disease", which the country sought to "treat".

The 19-year-old is now to embark on a landmark legal challenge in order to reverse the deportation order so he can spend the rest of his life in Scotland.

Yakob fled his homeland two years ago after managing to survive a harrowing ordeal at the hands of Syrian police and prison guards, when he was arrested for distributing anti-government leaflets.

Following his transfer from police interrogation, prison guards soon discovered that Yakob, a member of the repressed Kurdish minority in the Arab state, was homosexual. He then suffered horrific beatings and was assaulted so badly that he fell into a coma. After being transferred to hospital, he managed to flee to Lebanon making for London, holed up in a lorry.

He applied for asylum and was granted extended leave by the Home Office, but was then arrested in Aberdeen last April after being found in possession of a fake Belgian passport. He was handed a 12-month sentence and sent to Polmont Young Offenders Unit in Falkirk.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has warned that the unchecked increase of population is wiping out the returns of the country's economic growth. Mubarak was meeting with cabinet ministers Monday to discuss how to solve the ongoing bread crisis affecting millions of the nation's poor. Presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad says Mubarak believes more needs to be done to drop the nation's birthrate. Egypt's Health Minister reports that the country's population of 76 million has increased by more than 300% since 1952 when it was only 22 million.  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 03-17-08 1105ET

….Return to Baghdad

After hearing rumors that security had improved back home, Mr. Jihad returned to Baghdad last December, moving in with family in a Shiite part of town. But he still didn't feel safe and says he felt like he was a prisoner, unable to go out at night or return to college. After two weeks, Mr. Jihad decided to return to Syria with his family. Working at a construction site, he earns just enough to cover his family's living expenses in Damascus.

Still, "the blessing of security in Syria is enough for me," Mr. Jihad says…..

An estimated four million Iraqis — over 14% of the country's population — have been displaced inside Iraq or to neighboring countries, largely due to the chaotic aftermath of the American-led invasion that began on March 19, 2003. (Complete coverage)

"Germany resumes isolation policy toward the Syrian regime" (Translation and note thanks to MSK)

"Deutschland wird nach den Worten Merkels auch an der gegenwärtigen Isolation Syriens festhalten. Alle Gespräche mit Syrien seien bislang sehr enttäuschend verlaufen. Syrien werde seiner Verantwortung bei der Wahl eines neuen Präsidenten im Libanon nicht gerecht, sagte Merkel. Außerdem habe Syrien bis zum heutigen Tag das Nachbarland nicht diplomatisch anerkannt. Deshalb solle in der gegenwärtigen Phase allein EU-Chefdiplomat Javier Solana Gespräche mit der syrischen Regierung führen. Kehre Syrien auf den Weg der Rationalität zurück, seien die Türen wieder offen, sagte Merkel."

(Germany will, in Merkel's [German chancellor, i.e. prime minister] words, stick to the current isolation of Syria.  All talks held with Syria so far have been very disappointing.  Syria is not living up to its responsibility in the election of a new president in Lebanon, Merkel said.  Also, Syria has until the present day not diplomatically recognized the neighboring country.  Therefore shall in the current phase only EU chief diplomat Javier Solana hold talks with the Syrian government.  Should Syria return to the path of rationality, the doors will be open again, said Merkel.)

The Bush administration is calling on its pals leading the so-called moderate Arab states to isolate Syria by boycotting the summit. The State Department spokesman Sean McCormack was quoted  in an AFP article:   

In contemplating whether or not they attend a meeting in Syria, it certainly bears keeping in mind what Syria's role (has been) to this point in not allowing a Lebanese electoral process to move forward.

“Report: Syria wants ‘public’ peace talks with Israel
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent and Reuters

Syria has recently relayed a message to Israel conveying the county’s interest in peace talks with Israel, but on the condition that talks will be held openly and not under fire, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported Saturday.

According to the report, Damascus passed the message on to Israel via Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to the newspaper report, the Syrians demand a series of conditions in that message that must be fulfilled before it will commence a peace process, the first of which is the condition that talks will not be held “under fire.” The Syrians explained that by “under fire” they do not mean an armed conflict between Israel and Syria, but rather the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

Another Syrian condition is that the talks be held publicly, and accompanied by Israeli gestures to assure the Syrians that they are ready to withdraw from all “occupied Arab territories,” Al-Akhbar reported.

A third condition, according to the report, is that Israel hold simultaneous diplomatic talks with Lebanon and the Palestinians alongside peace talks with Syria.

However, “knowledgeable” sources told Al-Akhbar that Damascus estimates that the United States isn’t interested in Israel holding talks with Syria, and will act to prevent such talks from taking place.

Sources: Israel warned Syria it could pay price for any Hezbollah attack

In contrast to the Syrian peace overtures, Israel has recently conveyed a stern message to Damascus, also via a third party, stating that it would hold Damascus accountable for any Hezbollah attacks, Israeli and European sources said on Friday.

Syrian labourers bear brunt of Lebanon's political divide AFP

New batch of immigrants tracked arriving from Syria
By Jean Christou – LARNACA, Cyprus

44 Syrians and two Lebanese, were picked up in the early hours after crossing from the north and walking for two hours into Oroklini, police said. Another group of immigrants was also being sought by police. They had all come by boat at different times from Syria.

The Syrian Media Centre, an independent body that tracks curbs on media, said at least 153 Internet sites are blocked in Syria…

.

Security officials ordered Internet cafe owners this week to take down the names and identification cards of their clients as well as the times they come and leave, Mazen Darwich, head of the Syrian Media Centre, told Reuters. The records are to be presented regularly to the authorities, who targeted bloggers and Internet writers in recent months as part of a renewed campaign against dissent. These steps are designed to terrorize Internet users and spread fear and self censorship in violation of the right to privacy and free expression," Darwich said. "The government has been methodical in extending the scope of its iron censorship," he said. There was no comment from the government. Officials had said Internet controls were needed to guard against what they described as attempts to spread sectarian divisions and "penetration by Israel."

Naji writes in the comment section:

Sadly, this is the trend these days and a sign of our ugly times… I was travelling around Europe last summer, and everywhere I went (Italy, France,…and even in Switzerland), you now have to register your passport when you use an internet cafe… new anti-terrosim regulations and all that…!!

One site to be recently unblocked in Syria is Ayman Abdel Nour's http://www.all4syria.org/. This is good news as his new and improved newsletter provides excellent coverage of Syrian matters. For example, this article covers the large charity funraiser to be help in Washington next month for a Syrian NGO.

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In Lebanon, a 'Revolution' Gone Sour
Friday, Mar. 14, 2008 By NICHOLAS BLANFORD/BEIRUT

Many Lebanese have grown tired of the unrelenting crisis of political gridlock, sporadic assassinations, bombings and street violence, as well as a worsening economy. Fed up with ceaseless bickering of politicians from the March 14 bloc and the pro-Syrian opposition, led by the militant Shi'ite Hizballah movement, Lebanese are emigrating in droves to the wealthy, job-rich Gulf or further afield.

Robert Fisk: Silenced by the men in white socks
The Damascus Spring has presaged no golden summer for Syria
Saturday, 15 March 2008
The Independent

Shut them up. Accuse them. Imprison them. Stop them talking. Why is it that this seems to have become a symbol of the Arab – or Muslim – world? Yes I know about our Western reputation for free speech; from the Roman Empire to the Spanish inquisition, from Henry VIII to Robespierre, from Mussolini and Stalin to Hitler, even – on a pitiable scale – to Mr Anthony Blair. But it's getting hard to avoid the Middle East.

When Egyptian women cry "Enough!", they are sexually abused by Mubarak's cops. When Algerians demand to know which policemen killed their relatives, they are arrested for ignoring the regime's amnesty. When Benazir Bhutto is murdered in Rawalpindi, a cloak of silence falls over the world's imams. Pontificating about the assassination in Pakistan, Shaikh es-Sayed, who runs one of Canada's biggest mosques, expressed his condolences to "families of beloved brothers and sisters who died in the incident [sic]". Asked why he didn't mention Bhutto's name, he replied: "Why? This is not a political arena. This is about religion. That's politics." Well, it certainly is in Syria. George Bush – along with M. Sarkozy – has been berating Damascus for its lack of democracy and its human rights abuses and its supposed desire to gobble up Lebanon and "Palestine" and even Cyprus. But I always feel that Syria had a raw deal these past 90 years.

First came the one-armed General Henri Gouraud, who tore Lebanon off from Syria in 1920 and gave it to the pro-French Christians. Then Paris handed the Syrian coastal city of Alexandretta to the Turks in 1939 – sending survivors of the 1915 Armenian genocide into exile for a second time – in the hope that Turkey would join the Allies against Hitler. (The Turks obliged – in 1945!) Then in the Six Day War, Syria lost the Golan Heights – subsequently annexed by Israel. Far from being expansionist, Syria seems to get robbed of land every two decades.

On the death of Hafez al-Assad in 2000 – it's extraordinary how, like Sharon now that he is comatose, we come to like these old rogues once they've departed – we were told there was to be a "Damascus Spring". I always thought this a bit dodgy. I'd experienced the Lebanon Spring and read about the Ukraine Spring and I'm old enough to remember the Prague Spring, which ended in tears and tanks. And sure enough, the Damascus Spring presaged no golden summer for Syria.

Instead, we've gone back to the midnight knock and the clanging of the cell door. Why – oh why – must this be so? Why did the Syrian secret police have to arrest Dr Ahmed Thoma, Dr Yasser el-Aiti, Jabr al-Shufi, Fayez Sara, Ali al-Abdulla and Rashed Sattouf in December, only days after they – along with 163 other brave Syrians – had attended a meeting of the Damascus Declaration for Democratic Change? The delegates had elected Dr Fida al-Hurani head of their organisation. She, too, was arrested, and her husband, Dr Gazi Alayan, a Palestinian who had lived in Syria for 18 years, deported to Jordan.

The net spread wider, as they say in police reports. The renowned Syrian artist Talal Abu Dana was arrested up in Aleppo, his studio trashed and his paintings destroyed. Then on 18 February, Kamel al-Moyel from the lovely hill town of Zabadani, on the steam train route from Damascus, was picked up by the boys in white socks. A point of explanation here. Almost all Middle East Moukhabarat men – perhaps because a clothing emporium has won a concession for the region's secret policemen – wear white socks. The only ones who don't are the Israeli variety, who wear old baseball hats.

Needless to say, the Syrian prisoners were not ignored by their regime. A certain Dr Shuabi, who runs a certain Data and Strategic Studies Centre in Damascus, appeared on al-Jazeera to denounce the detainees for "dealing with foreign powers". Dr al-Hurani suffered from angina and was briefly sent to hospital before being returned to the Duma jail. But when the prisoners were at last brought to the Palace of Justice, Ali al-Abdulla appeared to have bruises on his body. Judge Mohamed al-Saa'our – the third investigative judge in Damascus, appointed by the ministry of interior – presided over the case at which the detainees were accused of "spreading false information", forming a secret organisation to overthrow the regime, and for inciting "sectarian and racist tendencies". The hearing, as they say, continues.

But why? Well, back on 4 December, George Bush met at the White House – the rendezvous was initially kept secret – the former Syrian MP Mamoun al-Homsi (who currently lives, dangerously perhaps, in Beirut) with Amar Abdulhamid, a member of a think thank run by a former Israeli lobbyist, and Djengizkhan Hasso, a Kurdish opposition activist. Nine days later, an official "source" leaked the meeting to the press. Which is about the time the Syrian Moukhabarat decided to pounce. So whose idea was the meeting? Was it, perhaps, supposed – once it became public – to provoke the Syrian cops into action?

The Damascus newspaper Tichrine – the Syrian equivalent of Private Eye's Rev Blair newsletter – demanded to know why Washington was showing such concern for human rights in Syria. Was not the American-supported blockade of one and a half million Gaza Palestinians a violation of the rights of man? Had not the Arabs seen all too clearly Washington's concern for the rights of man in Abu Ghraib and Guanatanamo? All true. But why on earth feed America's propaganda machine (Syria as the centre of Hamas/ Hiz-bollah/Islamic Jihad terror, etc) with weekly arrests of middle-aged academics and even, it transpires, the vice-dean of the Islamic studies faculty at Damascus University?

Of course, you won't find Israel or the United States engaged in this kind of thing. Absolutely not. Why, just two months ago, the Canadian foreign minister, Maxime Bernier, discovered that a confidential document sent to Canadian diplomats included a list of countries in which prisoners risked being tortured – and the names of America and Israel were on the list! Merde! Fortunately for us all, M. Bernier knew how to deal with such pernicious lies. The document, he announced, "wrongly includes some of our closest allies. It doesn't represent the opinion or the policy of the (Canadian) government". Even though, of course, the list is correct.

But M. Bernier managed to avoid and close down the truth, just as Mr Mubarak does in Cairo and President Bouteflika does in Algiers and just as the good Shaikh es-Sayed did in Toronto. Syria, according to Haitham al-Maleh, a former Syrian judge, claims there are now almost 3,000 political prisoners in Syria. But how many, I wonder, are there in Algeria? Or in Egypt? Or in the hands – secret or otherwise – of the United States? Shut them up. Lock them up. Silence.

The State Department's human rights bureau added Syria and dropped China from the department's "worst offenders" list. Al Kamen of the Washington Post writes:

Communist China was taken off that list and moved up to become one of those "authoritarian countries that are undergoing economic reform [and] have experienced rapid social change but have not undertaken democratic political reform and continue to deny their citizens basic human rights and fundamental freedoms."

This probably stunned imprisoned and harassed human rights activists and people walking anywhere near Tiananmen Square.

On a wholly unrelated matter, don't forget to sign up for your tickets to the Olympic Games, beginning Aug. 8 in Beijing. President Bush will be there.

Meanwhile in Iraq, 24,000 prisoners are being held in American run prisons without charges.

The Lebanon Forces leader Samir Geagea held talks at the White House with Hadley and Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs John Hannah to discuss the U.S. government's support for the Saniora government, including military and economic aid. The erstwhile militia leader was welcomed as a champion of the freedom agenda and proponent of Lebanon's commitment to its constitution and the rule of law. No mention was made of his convictions for the assassinations of Former Prime Minister Rashid Karami, National Liberal Party leader Dany Chamoun and his family, and former LF member Elias Al Zayek. He was also accused of attempting to kill Minister Michel Murr. He was given four life sentences in a trial Amnesty International criticized, citing that it was politically motivated, unjust and done under Syrian interference.[5] He served 11 years before being pardoned following the March 14th victory in 2005.

The fight for Lebanon's freedom
Washington Times, DC – Mar 13, 2008
By Farid Ghadry and Sami El-Khoury

The leadership of "March 14," to the dismay of many Lebanese Americans, who have worked hard for U.S. help, refused to exercise its constitutional right to ignore Hezbollah and Syria and elect a new president for Lebanon.

"March 14," from the start, took on a conciliatory tone with Hezbollah, yielding to many of its demands under the auspices of consensus-building and avoiding confrontation. That was by far their biggest blunder. With the exception of Samir Geagea, the vocal Christian leader, the organization has been unable to develop a cohesive strategy against Hezbollah terror. As an example, some in the leadership excluded other potent anti-Hezbollah players from their inner circle, which relieved them of greater options. One such Lebanese politician is Ahmad al-Assaad, a maverick Shi'ite with a notable history in Lebanese politics who was, and still is, willing to play spoiler to Hezbollah's grand schemes. Mr. Assaad visited Washington lately and his message was powerful enough to get the attention of many in the Bush administration.

But unlike Mr. Assaad's message of logic, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who also visited Washington several times in the past year, could not resist the occasion to shore up privately and publicly the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (SMB) and the former vice president of Syria, Abdul Halim Khaddam, a much-disliked figure inside Syria, at the behest of a scheme concocted in Saudi Arabia by Bandar Bin Sultan,….

Farid Ghadry is president of the Reform Party of Syria. Sami El-Khoury, who served as consul to the Lebanese Embassy in Ecuador, is president of the World Maronite Union.

Roland D. McKay of the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor is pushing this interesting conference
 [[email protected]]

Can the International Tribunal Change Syrian Policy?
By Joshua Landis
March 12, 2008

In two recent trips to Washington DC, I had the occasion to talk to a number of officials, ex-officials, and policy mavens about US policy toward Damascus in this very difficult transition period.

The consensus seems to be that the Bush administration is counting on the international tribunal to force Syria into changing its Lebanon policy, and presumably other policies as well.

How this will work is not completely clear. Syria has stated that it will not allow its citizens to appear before the tribunal, which it has said could be used as a political tool against it.

If Damascus does indeed refuse to allow Syrians to appear before the court, procedural difficulties will be enough to trip up the Syrians, suggest Washington officials. Whether sufficient evidence exists to convict Syrians would be irrelevant, in such a case.

Michael Young in his article, "Time may play against Syria in Lebanon" explains how many in Lebanon have their hopes pinned on this US policy.

US efforts also include ensuring that the Hariri tribunal is established as soon as possible, and that Daniel Bellemare, the future prosecutor of the tribunal, issues his act of accusation before the US administration leaves office. This seems likely, according to diplomats in Beirut. As Bush knows, no successor would engage Assad once the Syrian regime is implicated in Hariri's murder, particularly if it rebuffs all cooperation with the tribunal.   

Of course the international tribunal is not the only card the US has to play. It will continue to target Syrian politicians and regime figures for sanctions; it will accuse Syria of backing foreign fighters in Iraq; and it will continue to try to isolate Syria diplomatically by dissuading Arab and European leaders from doing business with Damascus. All the same, the international tribunal is the center piece of US strategy. It is the only strategy of those listed here that could possible lead European nations to join a sanctions regime against Damascus.

The likelihood of European nations being convinced or shamed into joining a sanctions regime against Damascus at this late date, seems improbable. Of course, if Syrian authorities stonewall the court, European statesmen will be obliged to do something. Whether their action will have real teeth will have to be seen. The notion that Damascus will reject the court in its entirety, is also doubtful. During the Mehlis investigation, Syria also said it would refuse to turn over witnesses. After some prevarication, it complied and avoided sanctions. Sending Syrians to an international court under indictment is different from sending them to Vienna for questioning. All the same, Syrian authorities are unlikely to refuse outright to deliver Syrians to the court.

How effective Washington's policy will be in liberating Lebanon from the influence of Hizbullah, Lebanon's native opposition, and Syrian influence remains to be seen.

Measuring Success of the Surge: Nir Rosen Debates Fred Kagan at PBS

Nir Rosen: I think it's absolutely a failure, the surge. I think that less violence is actually a sign of the failure of the surge.

The violence during a civil war was very logical. It was an attempt to remove Sunnis from Shia areas and Shia from Sunnis areas, and it's been incredibly successful. There are virtually no mixed areas left in Iraq.

You have what Americans call gated communities, effectively a Somalia-alike situation, where you have different neighborhoods surrounded by walls, controlled by a militia or a warlord. And they're sectarianally pure, all Shia, all Sunni. There's no reconciliation between the two communities.

FREDERICK KAGAN: Well, there's a magnificent myth out there that Mr. Rosen just reiterated for us that there are no mixed areas in Iraq anymore and that the cleansing is completed.

And it's astonishing to me that someone who's been in Baghdad for as long and as much as Mr. Rosen has been could say something like that. There are still Shia areas in western Baghdad, not only in Kadamiyah, around the Kadamiyah shrine, in which there will always be Shia, but also in west Rashid…..

You have to remember that, when the surge went in, the purpose actually was just to get Baghdad under control. It was initially called the Baghdad security plan.

A variety of developments, including the turning of the Sunni Arabs against al-Qaida and the insurgency, have allowed us to be playing for much more than that. And so we've actually managed to stabilize a large swath of central Iraq.

And there has also been remarkable political progress. There's been progress on almost every one of the major pieces of benchmark legislation.

And so — and the Iraqis are — there's a new fluidity. When you look at the Iraqi political dynamic in Baghdad now, at the senior levels and throughout, there's a new fluidity in the equation, which comes from the fact that the Iraqis certainly feel that violence has dropped to levels where what they are starting to care about is less security and more moving forward with their country.

No-Man's Land: Palestinian Refugees Trapped on the Syrian Border by James Denselow

Also, See this short video: excellent

… For these vulnerable refugees, it was a case of leaving the frying pan of Baghdad only to find the fire of the barren desert camps. The refugees in the Al-Waleed camp in particular are subject to fluctuating politics of local and regional sheikhs in the lawless Anbar province. These local authorities try to secure a share of the aid business and intervene according to their own interests. This makes the work of the international aid organisations extremely difficult as they are regularly hindered in carrying out their jobs effectively. Security is so poor that overnight visits are not possible. Other players interfering in the running of the camp include the border police, local police and the Iraqi army.

Both camps are characterised by tented accommodation due to the fear that more solid structures would encourage permanent settlement in what constitutes the most peripheral and unforgiving of locations. Given the harsh weather conditions — the freezing cold in winter, the unbearable desert heat in summer — and the regular threats from fires, snakes and scorpions, long-term dwelling in a tented settlement is simply not a viable solution…

Syria will not invite Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attend the Arab league summit, which is probably why the Saudi Kingdom is Ready to Attend Arab Summit in Syria: Prince Sultan

Memri has an interesting article on Iran's initiative to improve relations with Egypt: "Iran's Aim in Rapprochement with Egypt: Undermining U.S. Power, Gaining Regional Dominance."

According to a BBC World Service poll, global support for economic sanctions or military strikes against Iran is dropping. In thirteen of twenty-one countries polled, stern measures were increasingly unpopular. Only in three countries – Turkey, Israel and South Korea – was a tough stance towards Iran more popular. 

Geagea gets pledge of support from officials in Washington

BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces (LF) boss Samir Geagea, who left for the United States on Saturday, met on Tuesday with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as part of a tour of America.

US National Security Advisor Steven Hadley has told the LF chief that America was strongly committed to helping the Lebanese build an independent state, the An-Nahar daily quoted a White House source as saying on Tuesday.

"The US is still strongly committed to help the Lebanese people fulfill their dream of building a free, independent and prosperous state," Hadley told Geagea in Washington on Monday, according to the source.

Bush Moves to Bolster Support for U.S. War Effort
He Says Politics Won't Sway Him
(By Michael Abramowitz, The Washington Post)

Here is how Ray Close (ex-CIA) explains the Fallon dismissal.

I believe that the Bush people have long since given up (privately) on the thought of actually launching a preemptive attack on Iran (with or without Israeli collaboration), for many very obvious military and political reasons of which the whole world is well aware.  However,  I believe they (especially the Cheney crew) are too stubborn and arrogant to acknowledge that the so-called military option is a practical impossibility, despite their constant sinister reminders that it is still "on the table".  

The Bush administration is, unfortunately, at a complete loss to devise any workable alternative strategy, and that is making them more sensitive and prickly than ever. 

The White House therefore recognized (as did we all) that Fallon's openly contrarian views on the subject were undermining the credibility of their hollow bluff.  It was acutely embarrassing when this controversy was exposed to friends and foes alike all over the world (especially in a barbershop journal like Esquire), and controversial and divisive within the inner offices of the Washington policy  establishment —  hence unacceptably insubordinate.  This is not an Administration that tolerates   criticism on any level, and especially when its own insiders expose once again their most precious but worst kept secret — that the Iraq quagmire has left the world's greatest superpower, the United States of America, effectively incapable of employing its awesome military might to back up its publicly proclaimed strategic objectives.  Someone once neatly reversed Teddy Roosevelt's famous dictum in describing this as "Walking stickly but carrying a big soft."

Ray

Dissenting Views Made Fallon's Fall Inevitable
By Gareth Porter*

Admiral William J. Fallon Credit:U.S. Navy

WASHINGTON, Mar 11 (IPS) – Admiral William Fallon's request to quit his position as head of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and to retire from the military was apparently the result of a George W. Bush administration decision to pressure him to resign.

Announcing the resignation, Defence Secretary Robert M. Gates said he believed it was "the right thing to do", thus indicating the administration wanted it.

On Monday, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell, asked whether Gates still had full confidence in Fallon, would only say that Fallon "still enjoys a working — a good working relationship with the secretary of defence", and then added, "Admiral Fallon serves at the pleasure of the president."

The resignation came a few days after the publication of an Esquire magazine article profiling Fallon in which he was described as being "in hot water" with the White House and justified public comments departing from the Bush administration's policy toward Iran. The publicity that followed the article accelerated the pressure on Fallon to resign.

But Fallon almost certainly knew that he would be fired when he agreed to cooperate with the Esquire magazine profile in late 2006.

On Tuesday, Fallon issued a statement saying, "Recent press reports suggesting a disconnect between my views and the president's policy objectives have become a distraction at a critical time and hamper efforts in the Centcom region."

The resignation brings to an end a year, during which time Fallon clashed with the White House over policy toward Iran and with Gen. David Petraeus and the White House over whether Iraq should continue to be given priority over Afghanistan and Pakistan in U.S. policy.

Fallon's greatest concern appears to have been preventing war with Iran. He was one a group of senior military officers, apparently including most of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who were alarmed in late 2006 and early 2007 by indications that Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were contemplating a possible attack on Iran.

Gates chose Fallon to replace Gen. John P. Abizaid as CENTCOM chief shortly after a Dec. 13, 2006 meeting between Bush and the Joint Chiefs at which Bush reportedly asked their views on a possible strike against Iran.

Col. W. Patrick Lang, a former intelligence officer on the Middle East for the Defence Intelligence Agency, told the Washington Post last week that Fallon had said privately at the time of his confirmation that an attack on Iran "isn't going to happen on my watch", When asked how he could avoid such a conflict, Fallon reportedly responded, "I have options, you know." Lang said he interpreted that comment as implying Fallon would step down rather than follow orders to carry out such an attack.

As IPS reported last May, Fallon was also quoted as saying privately at that time, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box". That was an apparent reference to the opposition by the Joint Chiefs of Staff to an aggressive war against Iran.

Even before assuming his new post at CENTCOM, Fallon expressed strong opposition in mid-February to a proposal for sending a third U.S. aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, to overlap with two other carriers, according to knowledgeable sources. The addition of a third carrier was to part of a broader strategy then being discussed at the Pentagon to intimidate Iran by making a series of military moves suggesting preparations for a military strike.

The plan for a third carrier task force in the Gulf was dropped after Fallon made his views known.

Fallon reportedly made his opposition to a strike against Iran known to the White House early on in his tenure, and his role as CENTCOM commander would have made it very difficult for the Bush administration to carry out a strike against Iran, because he controlled all ground, air and naval military access to the region.

But Fallon's role in regional diplomacy proved to be an even greater source of friction with the White House than his position on military policy toward Iran. Personal relations with military and political leaders in the Middle East had already become nearly as important as military planning under Fallon's predecessors at CENTCOM.

Fallon clearly relished his diplomatic role and did not hesitate to express views on diplomacy that were at odds with those of the administration. Last summer, as Dick Cheney was maneuvering within the administration to shift U.S. policy toward an attack on bases in Iran allegedly connected to anti-U.S. Shiite forces in Iraq, Fallon declared in an interview, "We have to figure out a way to come to an arrangement" with Iran.

When Sunni Arab regimes in the Middle East became alarmed about the possibility of a U.S. war with Iran, Fallon made statements on three occasions in September and November ruling out a U.S. attack on Iran. Those statements contradicted the Bush administration's policy of keeping the military option "on the table" and soured relations with the White House.

Fallon also antagonised administration officials by pushing for a faster exit from Iraq than the White House and Gen. Petraeus wanted. Fallon had a highly-publicised personal and policy clash with Petraeus, for whom he reportedly expressed a visceral dislike. Sources familiar with reports of his meetings with Petraeus in Baghdad last March told IPS last spring that he called him an "ass-kissing little chickens**t" in their first meeting.

Fallon later denied that he had used such language, suggesting to Esquire that the sources of the report were probably army officers who were indulging in inter-service rivalry with the navy. In fact, however, the sources of the report were supporters of Fallon.

Fallon's quarrel with Petraeus was also related to the latter's insistence on keeping U.S. troops in Iraq, even while the NATO position in Afghanistan was growing more tenuous. Fallon was strongly committed to a strategy that gave priority to Afghanistan and Pakistan as the central security challenges to the United States in the Middle East and Asia.

Fallon made his distaste for a long war in Iraq very clear from the beginning. He ordered subordinates to stop using the term "long war", which had been favoured by the Bush administration. He was reported to be concerned that the concept would alienate people across the Middle East by suggesting a U.S. intention to maintain troops indefinitely in Muslim countries.

Fallon's policy positions made him unpopular among neoconservative supporters of the administration. One neoconservative pundit, military specialist Max Boot, criticised Fallon last November for his public comment ruling out a strike against Iran and then suggested in January that Petraeus should replace the "unimpressive" Fallon at CENTCOM.

Fallon was playing a complex political game at CENTCOM by crossing the White House on the two most politically sensitive issues in Middle East policy. As a veteran bureaucratic infighter, he knew that he was politically vulnerable. Nevertheless, he chose late last year not to lower his profile but to raise it by cooperating fully with the Esquire article.

IPS has learned that Fallon agreed to sit for celebrity photographer Peter Yang at CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa Dec. 26 for the Esquire spread, despite the near-certainty that it exacerbate his relations with White House. That may have been a signal that he already knew that he would not be able to continue to play the game much longer and was ready to bring his stormy tenure at CENTCOM to an end.

*Gareth Porter is an historian and national security policy analyst. The paperback edition of his latest book, "Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam", was published in 2006.

Aleppo

Berri: Lebanon Solution Linked to Restoration of Syrian-Saudi Ties (Naharnet.com)

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stressed that a solution to the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon "has been and will always be" linked to normalization of ties between Syria and Saudi Arabia. "Normalizing ties between Syria and Saudi Arabia will reflect positively on Lebanon," Berri said in remarks published on Tuesday.

The speaker said he does not see any prospect for a settlement to the Lebanon crisis "unless Arab reconciliation is achieved." "If Arabs shake hands, we will quickly reconcile in Lebanon," Berri added.

Saudi Arabia to attend Arab summit in Damascus, (AP)

Saudi Arabia will attend this month's Arab summit in Damascus, Saudi's crown prince said Monday, a day after Syria delivered an invitation to the oil-rich Gulf nation.

But Crown Prince Sultan did not say who will represent the kingdom at the upcoming summit, a possible sign of tension between Damascus and Riyadh.

Crown Prince Sultan put an end to rumors of a boycott on Monday in remarks carried by Al-Jazeera television, saying "it's an Arab summit that we can't give up."

"The goals of the summit would depend on who will participate in it," he added. Syria fears that a poor showing at the annual summit, the first to be held in Damascus, will further isolate President Bashar Assad's regime.

The way to exit from Lebanon’s morass
By Paul Salem in The Daily Star
Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Clouds of war hover over Lebanon. The country is adrift without a president and with a contested government as well as a Parliament whose doors have been closed since late 2006… Is there a safe passage through this morass? …

The government must develop a “national defense strategy” that incorporates Hizbullah’s proven force and fighting capacity into the strengthened national army. This can come in the form of a border defense force or other such arrangements that exist in other countries. Ultimate war and peace decision-making, however, must be in the hands of the state, and ultimate command over military means must be in the hands of the army. The state and reconstructed army, however, must provide very credible answers to the recurring threat of Israeli attacks against the South and must include a realistic mechanism to finally control the Lebanese-Syrian border….

the new government’s most urgent task is to adopt an electoral law. The current Parliament’s term ends in June 2009 and the way things are going today we are likely to arrive at that date without having been able to hold elections, thus entering into a period of even more complete institutional bankruptcy than today. To hold the elections we must draft an electoral law by the fall of 2008 at the latest. The government should at long last open and read the proposed draft law prepared by the government-appointed National Election Commission in June 2006, which I participated in drafting. That should be the starting point for debating electoral reform, not backroom deals by political bosses.

That law proposes lowering the voting age, creating an independent electoral management body, enabling expatriate voting, strictly controlling the abuse of money in campaigns, strictly controlling the abuse of private television stations, preventing vote-rigging, introducing measures to protect voting secrecy and to combat vote buying, and boosting women’s representation. These measures would have a revolutionary effect on politics in Lebanon – measures that most political bosses from both camps today would probably not favor.

The law also introduces proportional representation, which would allow diverse groups and parties to enter Parliament so that each community is not represented merely by its communal bosses. Elections are the basis of any republic; and a truly reformed electoral law is the most important step to help rebuild our ruined political culture….

As for the Hariri tribunal, its creation should be advanced quickly. The institution has hung over Lebanon and Syria for three years, and it is time that the truth comes out, that justice be done, and that Syria and Lebanon deal with the serious political repercussions that might follow from its conclusions. Only after facing those truths and overcoming them can the two countries look forward to a post-tribunal relationship.

Khalilzad: Hariri Tribunal Ready to Launch Trials (Naharnet.com)

Contributions to finance the tribunal have reached more than $50 million, including $21,3 in pledges.

Khalilzad said a "management committee" had been established. The committee, which will among other tasks provide advice and policy direction on all non-judicial aspects of the operations of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and oversee expenditures, is composed of France, Germany, Holland, Britain, the United States and the United Nations, he added.

Analyze This: In a cold war with Iran, can Syria become Israel's 'China card'? By CALEV BEN-DAVID , J_Post

Playing the "Damascus card" against Teheran, though, would carry a heavy political price – the return of the Golan Heights, possibly even up to the shores of Kinneret – and it is difficult to imagine that any but the strongest Israeli government would be in a position to make that deal.

The Olmert-led coalition clearly isn't that government. Yet if the intelligence assessment is correct that Iran will reach a "point of no return" in its nuclear program in the latter half of 2009, and neither Israel nor the United States are successful in halting that development, then we will truly find ourselves locked into a cold war-type military stalemate with Teheran – a prospect that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's apocalyptic outlook makes far more frightening than the Kremlin's former belief in the historical inevitability of Marxist triumph.

In that case, even all of the Golan may come to seem a reasonable sacrifice in breaking Syria's alliance with Iran – even if it is no easy task finding an Israeli Nixon to go to that particular China.

"Obama and the Bigots," by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF (March 9, 2008)

the most monstrous bigotry in this election isn’t about either race or sex. It’s about religion…. The whispering campaigns allege that Mr. Obama is a secret Muslim planning to impose Islamic law on the country. Incredibly, he is even accused — in earnest! — of being the Antichrist….

A 2007 Gallup poll found that 94 percent of Americans said they would vote for a black candidate for president and 88 percent for a woman. In contrast, a Los Angeles Times poll in 2006 found that only 34 percent of respondents said they could vote for a Muslim for president.

To his credit, Mr. Obama has spoken respectfully of Islam (he told me last year, on the record, that the Muslim call to prayer is “one of the prettiest sounds on earth at sunset”). If he were to go further — “and so what if I were Muslim?” — many Americans would see that as confirmation that he is a Sunni terrorist agent of Al Qaeda who is part of a 9/11 backup plan: If you can’t reach the White House with a hijacked plane, then storm the Oval Office through the ballot box….

When Mrs. Clinton was asked in a television interview a week ago whether Mr. Obama is a Muslim, she denied it firmly — but then added, most unfortunately, “as far as I know.” To his credit, Mr. McCain scolded a radio host who repeatedly referred to “Barack Hussein Obama” and later called him a Manchurian candidate. …

Kuwaiti firm interested in buying Syriatel in defiance of American ban on doing business with Rami Makhlouf, a majority owner.

Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co (Zain) said it is interested in buying Syria's largest mobile phone provider and does not expect any significant increase in net profit this year. The company is owned by Rami Makhlouf, a cousin of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Makhlouf is also the target of U.S. financial sanctions for his links to the Syrian regime. Turkey's largest mobile phone operator, Turkcell , said last month it will bid for control of Syriatel.

may Chidiac’s response to the question “How do you view Hezbollah’s role in Lebanese politics?” (Thanks to the Moor Next Door)

They pretend to speak for Lebanon’s Shiites, but in fact they are crushing them. Hezbollah calls itself “the Islamic resistance in Lebanon” — they don’t consider themselves Arabs but Iranians. Hezbollah has received an estimated $20bn (€13.6bn) from Iran in the past 20 years. With that, they are buying up land and arms. No one dares oppose them. We are too afraid of a conflict between Shiites and Sunnis. The Shiites are helped by Iran; the Sunnis are helped by Saudi Arabia; and the Christians? All they get are prayers from the Vatican and that’s not enough. I don’t want my country to become an Islamic republic.

To Embrace or Not to Embrace By: Henry A. Kissinger | International Herald Tribune

The elections in Pakistan, far from calming the political crisis, have opened a new phase of it. The world has a huge stake in the outcome.

"Dardari Says the Syrian Middle Class is Reviving Due to Economic Reforms"
by Ibrahim Hamidi
2008-03-10 (Translation thanks to BBC Monitor)

Text of report by London-based newspaper Al-Hayat website on 8 March

[Report by Ibrahim Humaydi from Damascus: "Syrian Deputy Prime Minister Confirms Gap Among Classes, Increase in Number of Rich, but Denies Poverty Is Increasing. Al-Dardari: Syria Needs To Liberalize its Economy]

In an interview with Al-Hayat, Syrian Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdallah al-Dardari declared that his country's economy is facing new challenges represented by a growing demand on energy supplies, the need to find 1bn euros annually for electric power, and the rising prices of agricultural products and their connection with "food security" resulting from rising oil prices. He asserted that Syria has no choice but "to work harder on structural economic reform and liberalizing more economic sectors from their current restrictions."

He pointed out that the rich in Syria "are growing richer but the incomes of the poor are also improving." He said that "the gap between classes is more conspicuous now" but without meaning that "the middle class is disappearing." He added that poverty is "a harsh and profound reality" but the Syrian Government is working to provide "social security."

Noting that Syria's domestic challenges are connected with poverty and unemployment, he asserted that reform "is an intellectual, administrative, and executive challenge." He added that it is not an easy process that hinges on the adoption of a collection of laws but is a difficult subject that requires development of mentalities and administration.

He said: "If we compare the Syrian situation with other economic reform experiences, we will find that the briefest reform process lasted 17 years while the tenth Syrian five-year plan is only one and a half years old. If we remember that the intellectual beginnings of economic reform appeared during the Ba'th Party's 10th regional congress in June 2005, this means that reform has been going on for two and a half years. Therefore, historically we are in the early stages of reform."

He pointed out that the overall economic growth rate "reached 5.1 per cent in 2006, a percentage that is documented by the IMF." He noted, however, that new figures show that current growth is around 5.5 per cent while GNP growth reached 6.5 per cent in 2007."

Al-Dardari admitted that "there is no way that every person will benefit to the same degree," noting that this is impossible because people are at different levels of education, experience, skills, and ability to seize opportunities." He asked: "Is growth meant to be perpetual?" He said that "the questions are more numerous than the answers in the first stage of economic reform and no one can claim that he has the answers to all the questions."

He added: "Whenever I visit my home village, people ask: What does a growth rate of 9 per cent per cent mean when all we see are rising prices of gasoline, sugar, and rice. This is what the villagers see."

He said: "Today Syria is moving towards a more balanced and better situation with regard to what are termed economic basics. Growth is a necessary condition but alone it is not enough. What would be enough is for growth to include all the Syrian people."

Speaking about economic challenges and economic weak points, he said that the first challenge "consists of completing and expanding economic reform policies and liberalizing the Syrian economy of the many restrictions that hamper it."

He remarked: "It is true that we covered a lot of ground but we still have a very long way to go. If we assume that someone will say that we are not telling the truth and that the growth rate is only 3 per cent, what is the solution?

Syria needs to see results. We need to entrench and expedite structural economic reform. We need a greater push to liberalize the economic sectors. Does this country have any other options available?"

According to what Al-Dardari explained, the second challenge consists of "ensuring that the Syrian economy is competitive.

He said: "And what does competitiveness mean in its institutional, legislative, productive, and service aspects? It means the Syrian economy's ability to produce high quality products and services and to be able to attract local, Arab, and international investments. The important challenge is to reduce unemployment, create a secure job market, and develop effective job market policies."

The Syrian deputy prime minister explained that "in its narrow definition set by the International Labour Organization, every person who did one hour in the week preceding the survey is not regarded as unemployed. Unemployment in Syria went down from 12.5 per cent to 8.1 per cent of the overall labour force between 2004 and 2007. Can I then say that unemployment has dropped? No, because it is still high."

He pointed out that unemployment in the 16-24 age group exceeds 18.4 per cent. This, he said, poses a big challenge for Syria and for job market reforms, which must take into account the need to protect the rights of older working people while providing opportunities for the young to enter the job market. Al-Dardari announced that the overall labour force amounted to 4.879 million in 2006.

Asked about the energy challenge, he said it is represented by the fact that "the rate of energy consumption is growing faster than the level of local production." He explained that energy demand is growing by 10 or 11 per cent annually while the economy on the whole is growing by 5 or 6 per cent and will reach 7 per cent at the end of the current 10th five-year plan. This means that "no matter how fast you run, you will not be able to provide the country's energy needs."

He said: "The world is moving in the direction of relying on alternative energy sources but these require investments and their costs are still very high."

He announced that Syria "needs 1,000 MW of electricity annually that cost 1.5bn euros. Hence the energy issue should be handled in a comprehensive manner and from a strategic perspective. We need to work strategically on this issue."

He said that he believes "it is a tremendous challenge to overturn the equation until energy production is equal to or greater than the demand, and this requires 20 years of growth."

He noted that the "third challenge to the Syrian government consists of agriculture, especially as the balance of food security in the world has changed and a quarter of global wheat production goes to produce bio-fuels, which caused wheat prices and food prices in general to double in one year." He said that a ton of wheat, which used to cost $200, now costs $450 but there has no been no rise in the prices of barley, animal feed and milk. He remarked: "The economic issue is very complex today and is very difficult to manage."

He explained the effect that this has on food security and Syria's policy on agriculture, saying: "There are challenges resulting from the higher oil prices. This is the first time that food prices are so closely linked to the oil price. However, what interests us in our agricultural policy is to provide food security, that is, Syria's needs of basic foods without relying on other countries. This will continue."

He asserted that "there is no escape from agricultural subsidies." He pointed out that some technical experts are studying this issue "but we cannot say let us leave it as it was last year when a ton of wheat cost $200 while it costs $450 today."

He added: "Animal feed was plentiful but today supplies are not secure worldwide."

He described his understanding of the definition of a middle class by saying that "it is the segment of the population that is able to provide a dignified standard of life for itself, is educated, cultured, and broadminded and is able to take the initiative."

He pointed out that statistics indicate "a significant increase in the past three years in the number of people who are self- employed in Syria" and added that the working middle class in the country is at a stable 28 per cent of the overall workforce but the rate of those who are self-employed is rising rapidly, at around 10 per cent in 2006- 2007, from 26 to 29 per cent of the total workforce." He said that this is one of the signs that the middle class is reviving.

On the condition of being poor, he said: This phenomenon "is not merely economic but also psychological. Discrepancies in income today do not indicate rising poverty. It is connected with the method of consumption. I mean formerly Syria's rich did not spend their money in Syria. They used to go to Beirut, Paris and London. Now there are opportunities for liberal consumption in Syria that has made the phenomenon of rich and poor more conspicuous. One must isolate the phenomena and determine where they stand within the economy. Are they results or causes? Are they a social phenomena or actual economic realities?"

He spoke about the results of measuring the rate of poverty in Syria:

"It has been determined that those who live on less than one dollar a day are 0.6 per cent of the population. How many Syrians live on 50 lire per day? They are very few. If they have no income, society will help. Do not forget that the Syrian social security system is excellent."

He said that the number of those who live on less than 2 dollars a day is "less than 10 per cent of the population" and that a large number of families "receive remittances from abroad." He declared: "Syrian society is balanced and possesses methods of absorption and balance."

Originally published by Al-Hayat website, London, in Arabic 8 Mar 08. (c) 2008 BBC Monitoring Middle East.

Compare with this article by Suad Jarous in al-Sharq al-Awsat, November 9, 2007: "Fears of the Collapse of the Middle Class in Syria and the Lifting of Subsidies"

Posted by Alex 

This is a story from 1954. I wanted to share it with you because it is an example of a great public relations success for the United States in Syria, and the Arab world in General… a very different kind of initiative from the one behind the American warship(s) near Syria and Lebanon today.

Maybe there are simpler ways to flip Syria … they will not cost three trillion dollars, and no one will die.

CINERAMA SECRET WEAPON OF THE COLD WAR

BY TOM LECOMPTE

1954: The Soviets had just exploded their first H-bomb; the McCarthy hearings had come to an ignominious end in Washington; Stalin had died and Khrushchev had risen to power in Moscow. And in Damascus, Syria, Harris Peel had a problem.

Peel, the information director for the U.S. Embassy in the Syrian capital, needed something quickly. The Soviets were inaugurating a new front in the Cold War. The first Damascus International Trade Fair, slated to be the biggest in the Middle East, was due to open in just a few weeks, and the Soviets were pouring men, material, and money into it in an all-out effort to gain friends and influence in a region of growing strategic importance. They had hired 1,200 laborers and spent a half-million dollars to build a 40,000-square-foot pavilion that would be the largest in the fair, and would dominate the fairgrounds with a 100-foot steeple topped by an illuminated Red Star.
The United States, meanwhile, had nothing. With little time and zero budget, Peel cast about for some way to rescue his country’s prestige. Then he had an idea: Cinerama.

The year before, in Washington, Peel had attended a showing of This Is Cinerama. Since its unveiling in 1952 at New York’s Broadway Theater, This Is Cinerama had been a runaway success, thrilling audiences with its stomach-convulsing views taken from the front of a roller coaster and its breathtaking low-level aerial shots of such landmarks as the Grand Canyon and Niagara Falls. The movie’s revolutionary three-panel ultra-wide-screen projection technique immersed audiences in a panoramic view of the action. You didn’t watch This Is Cinerama, you experienced it. It had become the most-talked-about film since —well, since the introduction of talkies in 1927. How better to showcase the best America had to offer?

A few phone calls later and it was arranged. Cinerama, Inc., agreed to donate everything needed to build a temporary theater. The Air Force agreed to fly over 12 tons of equipment, including a 75-foot-long, 25foot-high curved movie screen. A Cinerama crew and a handful of local laborers built a 2,000-seat open-air theater just in time for the opening of the month-long fair. “We busted our butts for five weeks to make this thing work,” Frank Richmond, the supervisor, told a reporter. “It worked, but God knows we had no right to think it would.”

On opening night, September 2, 1954, throngs swarmed the fairgrounds. Tickets were distributed free by the U.S. Information Agency (USIA), and demand far outstripped supply. Thousands showed up without tickets. Richmond looked on in horror as the metal fence around the complex started to yield to the crowd. “It scared me to see those iron fences bending under the weight of hundreds of people pushing,” he said, “and inside, without protection, $100,000 worth of equipment.”

The fences, however, held. Extra police were dispatched to maintain crowd control, and the U.S. Information Center in Damascus barred its doors and posted special guards to keep crowds from storming the building in quest of nonexistent tickets. Black marketers scalped passes, and a counterfeiting ring faked them. Each night people who couldn’t get tickets climbed nearby eucalyptus trees, stood on barrels, or balanced on bicycles to get a glimpse of the spectacle. A nearby restaurant with a partial view of the screen was packed every night. The USIA distributed 150,000 tickets during the show’s month-long run, and informal estimates had a total of nearly a quarter-million people seeing the show. The population of Damascus was 360,000.

Peel’s idea was such an overwhelming success that the State Department investigated the possibility of installing Cinerama on a retired aircraft carrier and taking it to ports all over the world. The plan was abandoned only after the expense of taking a carrier out of mothballs was found to be prohibitive. At a subsequent fair in Bangkok, the demand for tickets was so great that the film was held over for two weeks after the fair ended.

The Soviets, embarrassed and angry at being upstaged at the trade fair, resolved to acquire Cinerama’s secrets. Said Thomas: “Not long after Cinerama opened in London, they sent a planeload of scientists to the British capital, and while Washington slept and did nothing more about using this magic medium and failed to continue the success of Damascus and Bangkok, the Russians copied Cinerama.” He added that nothing less than our national security was at stake. No one knows exactly how the Russians learned the inner workings of Cinerama, but it may not have been too hard. Popular Science had run a cover story detailing the mechanics of Waller’s invention in August 1950, two years before the premiere of This Is Cinerama.

Syrian newspaper headline: "Cinerama plays in Syria before any other country"

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

American Globe Master air cargo, the largest plane to land at Damascus Maze Airport in 1954

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

Syrian President Hashem Atassi and other guests at the Damascus International Fair in 1954

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

Egyptian movie stars Madiha Yosri and her husband Mohammad Faouzi watch Cinerama in Damascus

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

Sign in Arabic says: "The Unites States of America presents Cinerama"

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

Nineteen year old Saudi Prince Talal Ben Abdel Aziz AL-Saud dressed in trendy black talks to Frank Richmond from Cinerama, in the projection room in Damascus.

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

Lowell Thomas Jr. (active promoter of Cinerama, and official photographer of the event) and Frank Richmond (Damascus project manager) in the projection room

Lowell Thomas Sr. (father of Lowell Thomas Jr., above) was a nearly ubiquitous journalist, showman, radio commentator, and adventurer, a sort of one-man media empire. He had a daily radio show heard by millions and was the voice of Fox Movietone newsreels. His sonorous voice and distinctive “So long until tomorrow…” sign-off were brands to themselves. He was also a tireless promoter, a man who counted among his friends Presidents, Hollywood stars, and business titans.He was a correspondent during World War I in the Middle East with Gen. Edmund Allenby and T. E. Lawrence.

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

US embassy in Damascus invite to a reception at the Damascus Orient Club.

[from the collection of www.mideastimage.com]

US places yet more sanctions on Syria. This time on ships that have visited Syrian ports.

Syria was placed on a so-called "Port Security Advisory List" amid "concerns about the connections between Syria and international terrorist organizations," the State Department's deputy spokesman Tom Casey told reporters.

The move allows the Coast Guard "to impose some additional port security measures to ships traveling to or arriving in US ports that have previously been either departing from Syria or have called on Syrian ports," he said.

Casey added he understood the measures would affect any ship that has visited Syria during its last five ports of call, but referred reporters to the Coast Guard and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for further information.

Nobody was immediately available for comment at DHS, while the Coast Guard public affairs office promised to try to provide details of the decision on Friday.

Video-Sampling Syria: Global Politics From a Ground’s-Eye View  

Back from Damascus: Ms. Meltzer and Mr. Thorne in their Los Angeles home.

LOS ANGELES — Julia Meltzer and David Thorne decamped for Damascus in March 2005 with a vague notion of assessing the toll exacted on ordinary Syrians by the Bush administration’s treatment of their country as an “axis of evil” understudy…

The fruits of their project will be on view in three video works at the Whitney Museum of American Art’s biennial, which opens on Thursday. (Continue)

Arab Leaders, Angry at Syrian President, Threaten Boycott of Summit Meeting
By ROBERT F. WORTH
Published: March 8, 2008

Several Arab leaders say they may boycott the annual Arab summit meeting scheduled for this month in Damascus, the Syrian capital, because of anger at Syria over its role in Lebanon and its continuing links to Iran.

The measures are part of an intensified campaign against Syria that comes alongside similar moves by the United States, which recently added several new financial sanctions against Syria and sent warships to cruise off the Lebanese coast — a gesture aimed directly at the Syrian government.

“There’s a new initiative to completely isolate Syria and weaken its destructive influence in Lebanon,” said an adviser to the Saudi government, who requested anonymity because of the delicacy of the issue. “We’re not going to pull them away from Iran by talking to them. We’re going to take them away from Iran by making them feel the pressure and making them understand that this time it’s as real as it can get.”..

“The king really hates Assad, and he is looking to punish him, because Assad allegedly insulted him on a couple of occasions,” said Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University who specializes in Saudi affairs….

In the past week, Saudi Arabia has recalled its ambassador from Damascus, and urged all its citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible — indicating that it believes any Saudi here is now a target for Syria or its allies. Last month the Saudi government deposited $1 billion into Lebanon’s central bank in a show of support for Lebanon’s government. …. 

Syria, committed to maintaining its course in Lebanon, has derided the arrival of American warships as an empty gesture and says it would rather have a meeting without major Arab leaders present than give in to intimidation.

“They do not know us,” said Samir Taqi, the director of the Orient Center for International Studies in Damascus. “Syria doesn’t need approval from anyone, and this is not the way to approach us.” …. “At the end of the day it’s about security,” said Mr. Taqi, the Syrian analyst. “Syria has often been threatened by Israel through Lebanon.” ….

“I think Syria has taken its position: they need to make sure that Lebanon cannot be used against them,” said Prof. Joshua M. Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. Its strategy, he added, is based in large part on countering the enormous financial power of Saudi Arabia and its allies.

“This is Syria’s game: keep Lebanon paralyzed, and Saudi has to subsidize everything,” Professor Landis said. “That’s going to take billions of dollars, and where does it end? Syria thinks they can outlast them.”

Paul Salem has a new interviewout with NOW Lebanon, clarifying his thoughts on the situation. It's highly worth reading, as always. 

Iran to provide Syria $3.5b in technical services

Philip Weiss writes: "Unreconstructed Neocon Wurmser Decants 'Regime Change,' Holy War, and 'Goodbye to 2-State Solution' to a Thin Crowd"

Going into the basement conference room of a law firm on 6th Avenue in New York yesterday to hear former Cheney adviser David Wurmser speak  on "What's at Stake for the West in Lebanon?" I was afraid that the subject, Lebanon, and six years in the White House meant that I would see a domesticated Wurmser, there would be no sign of the firebreather who once pushed for the Iraq war by saying that "craven, fawning" western politicians had "appeased" Arabs who had modeled themselves on Nazis.

Not to worry. Speaking to an audience of about 70 gathered by the Middle East Forum, Wurmser said we are on our way to a catastrophic war with Iran whether we like it or not. He poured the straight old 150 proof moonshine from the old neocon jug. His extremism was untempered by the experience of the last six years.

What are the 3 things he would tell John McCain if he were his adviser?

"Let me just bluntly answer that. One, abandon the two-state solution statement that we have right now vis a vis the Palestinians. Two–Well, let me start with number one. Number one is an open, publicly expressed regime-change strategy in Iran. Two, an open expressed regime-change strategy in Syria. 3, abandoning the two-state solution policy we've had frankly since the 9/11 attacks…"

Arabist Bernard Lewis likens what he calls the 'monstrous perversion of Islam' to the evils of Nazism and Bolshevism.

Indeed, Lewis's passion for medieval Arabic texts and respect for what he calls "one of the great religions" has not prevented him from being a caustic critic of radicalization among modern Muslims. On the contrary, if anything, his erudition has led him to assert unequivocally that the extremists have perverted their own traditions beyond recognition.

Still, says Lewis, "there are hopeful signs" indicating movement toward change. He cites, for example, his Jordanian friends' reaction to watching Israeli television and seeing Arab Knesset members openly attack the government with impunity. They are at once shocked and envious. Freedom tends to have that effect on those who do not enjoy it. Which is why, Lewis explains, "one of the things that even the most oppressive regimes cannot cope with today is modern communications – the Internet and so on. People know things now in a way and to an extent that were inconceivable in earlier times. They know, for example, how bad things are in their societies, because they see the contrast with the West. And there are more and more people interested in creating open societies." …

Would you really have the West impose itself on ancient cultures?

There are things you can't impose. Freedom, for example. Or democracy. Democracy is a very strong medicine which has to be administered to the patient in small, gradually increasing doses. Otherwise, you risk killing the patient [he laughs]. In the main, the Muslims have to do it themselves….

Mikael writes:

The story on Gaza appeared in September in Jeune Afrique (an investigation by Jan Fallstrom): "WHAT REALLY HAPENED IN GAZA?", or PDF version.

David Rose is bringing some new facts, but slightly ignores the internal fight within the Fatah, I believe, not irrelevant to understand Dahlan's failure?

 Posted by Alex

Jordanian newspaper Al-Arab Al-Youm reported today, through sources that an American message leaked by Egypt to Syria shows that the United States is ready to launch a broad military operation against Syria if it insists on its position on the Lebanese crisis and this is the real reason behind the deployment of “USS Cole” in front of the Syrian – Lebanese waters.

The source said that the official announced reason of Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Egypt is to push the Palestinian – Israeli peace process forward but the real reason is to explain the American military actions and the presence of the American ships to the Egyptian leadership.- roads to iraq

'USS Cole aims to dissuade any Hizbullah reprisal against Israel'; Analyst: US sent destroyer to keep lebanon under its 'wing'

Michael Bluhm

THE DAILY STAR, BEIRUT, LEBANON.

Beirut — BEIRUT: Despite US assertions that it deployed the USS Cole off Lebanon's coast to support regional stability, the destroyer's presence represents symbolic backing for the March 14 faction, an attempt to contain Hizbullah and put pressure on Syria in the regional context, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Tuesday.

The guided-missile destroyer arrived in international waters off Lebanon's shores the evening of February 28, as White House National security Spokesman Gordon Johndroe said the purpose of the USS Cole and other warships joining it shortly near Lebanon was "a show of support for regional stability."

"Initially we thought it might have been to support Israel vis-a-vis Gaza," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center. "I don't think we can say it's there to target Syria or the Gazans or whomever. The statements coming out of the Bush administration all mention Lebanon.

"It's there for Lebanon, to support [Prime Minister Fouad] Siniora. 'Regional stability' is a euphemism for 'To keep Lebanon under our wing.'"

She added that the choice to sail a warship to Lebanon's coast demonstrates the "political bankruptcy" of US President George W. Bush's administration, after countless initiatives pushed by the US and its regional allies have failed to break the 16-month-old political impasse here between the March 14 camp and the Syrian-backed March 8 opposition.

In addition to signaling support for its allies in the March 14 governing coalition, the USS Cole also sends a message to  Hizbullah to reconsider any plans to retaliate against Israel for the February 13 assassination of senior resistance commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.

"It's a message for Hizbullah after the two speeches of [party chief Sayyed] Hassan Nasrallah about open war" against Israel after Mughniyeh's killing, Hanna said, adding that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's recent expression of dismay over the term "open war" added to the pressures deterring Hizbullah from retaliating.

"Maybe now they will wait, but everything is up to Iran," which backs Hizbullah financially and militarily, Hanna added.

The US Marines in the convoy accompanying the USS Cole present a dramatic symbolism as well – the US has long fingered Mughniyeh in the November 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut that drove American troops from Lebanon, and after Mughniyeh's death the Marines are again approaching Lebanon, Saad-Ghorayeb said.

"It's too provocative," she added. "On a symbolic level it targets Hizbullah. "The [warships] are there both symbolically and [because] the US is resorting now to flexing its military muscle in the face of Hizbullah's declaration that it's going to respond to Israel for Mughniyeh's assassination."

Although the US has made clear that the USS Cole would be in the waters off Lebanon, its presence will also impact other nearby US foes such as Syria and Iran, she said.

"You can't extricate one from the other," Saad-Ghorayeb said. "You can't extricate Hizbullah from Iran andSyria."

"A lot of officials have actually said it's to target Syria," she added. "It could also be a message to target Iran. In and of itself, this is simply going to increase tension."

Regarding Syria, the Cole's arrival adds to the list of worries plaguing Syria, as part of the US desire to pluckDamascus from its alliance with Tehran and Hizbullah, Hanna said.

"When you look at the American project in the region, you have to look at it holistically," Hanna added. "Their next move will be to contain Iran and separate Syria from Iran. This is the main issue. Maybe now they are trying to threaten the regime itself.

"If Syria is isolated from Iran, all the tentacles of Iran will be cut."

Syrian President Bashar Assad has to juggle the UN tribunal investigating the series of political killings here, the bombing last September by Israel of a Syrian site allegedly connected to weapons activity, the probably absence of major Arab leaders from the Arab League summit in Damascus later this month and the aftershocks of having Mughniyeh killed while under Syria's ostensible protection.

"It's highly dangerous for the regime to have Imad Mughniyeh killed there," Hanna said.

While US officials tout the abilities of the Cole to ensure stability in the region, the destroyer's appearance here means in reality that the United States "expects some instability," said political analyst Simon Haddad.

"It is becoming clearer that a regional war will happen in the coming months," Haddad added. "The positioning of the USS Cole is not directed against Lebanon – it is most certainly directed against the Syrians. I think the next war will be directed against Hizbullah by the Israelis, and maybe the Americans want to prevent a Syrian intervention."

Whatever the US intentions in dispatching the Cole, its presence might boomerang by driving out some of the Sunnis from the March 14 coalition or by tempting militants here to attack the destroyer, which lost 17 sailors in a suicide bombing by Al-Qaeda in Yemen's Aden port in October 2000, said Saad-Ghorayeb.

"One consequence could be to provoke Al-Qaeda elements to target it," she said. "This is obviously a prime target for them, considering it was already attacked. This looks like it's bait, almost."

"It might cause a split in the Sunni community," which has many anti-American members, she added. "It will be hard for the Future Movement to argue that this is legitimate or not in any way condemn this. It might well close ranks between some Sunnis and Hizbullah."

Although the US has not said how long the Cole will remain on station off Lebanon, the destroyer will draw acute attention if it remains here if and when Hizbullah takes its avowed revenge on Israel for Mughniyeh's assassination, Saad-Ghorayeb said.

"That's the real litmus test for them," she added. "Things are to really change once Hizbullah responds."

Wed 5 Mar 2008, 11:40 GMT 

CAIRO, March 5 (Reuters) – Syria, facing Arab divisions over its role in neighbouring Lebanon, will invite Beirut and Riyadh to attend an Arab summit in Damascus due later this month, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said.

Syria, which has strained ties with the Western-backed government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, had said it would wait until Lebanon elects a new president before inviting Beirut and Riyadh to the March 29-30 summit. Saudi Arabia also backs Siniora, who is an opponent of Syria.

Syria has invited all other Arab League members, according to Lebanese politicians.

Egyptian state news agency MENA reported that Moualem, speaking late on Tuesday, said that "if a Lebanese president is not elected before the Arab summit, then Lebanon will choose who will represent it".

Analysts said this might trigger friction since Siniora should be the official representative of Lebanon in Damascus, which would be bitter pill for the Syrians to swallow.

Moualem, in Cairo for a two-day meeting of Arab foreign ministers to prepare for the summit, would not be drawn on to who the Lebanon invitation would be sent. Political sources said the Syrians would like other than Siniora to attend.

A Lebanese official said Siniora might not go if many Arab leaders stayed away. Diplomats in the region say they expect the leaders of heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as Jordan, to stay away unless Lebanon elects a president by then.

The summit is expected to focus on Lebanon, which has been without a president since November due to a power struggle, and on the Gaza Strip, where an Israeli offensive killed more than 120 Palestinians.

Syria expects at least 12 of 22 heads of state to attend, including those of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya as well as the Palestinian president.

Saudi Arabia's relations with Syria deteriorated after the 2005 assassination of its main Lebanese ally, former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Many in Lebanon and the Arab world blamed Syria for the killing. Damascus denies any involvement.

Arab League mediation has so far failed to break the impasse, which has forced the Lebanese presidential vote to be postponed 15 times since September. The election is now due on March 11. (Writing by Cynthia Johnston; Editing by Ibon Villelabeitia)