Dr. Landis,

It is interesting to read the different points of views offered by most of the commentators here. Speculation is rife about what truly took place. It has been suggested that Israel has been very mum and silent thus far. Little has been said about the usual opaque nature of the Syrian leadership. If I recall correctly, Bouthaina Shaaban for example promised that an investigation is needed before we really know what happened. Surely, one would think that someone would have been able to reach Tal Abiad by now and file in a detailed explanation. Why not call CNN and the world media to the site and show everyone what happened? The simplest explanation is that it is better not to.

What is also noteworthy is how isolated Syria has become in the Arab world. Calling your Arab brothers half men and then running to ask for their support does not strike me as consistent policy. Do you really want half men around you on days like today?

I would have thought that one way to figure out what the Israelis were attacking, or maybe confirm, is to look at what military installation is said to have been hit.

The only information I have yet seen was the comment on the 6th by Samuel which reported bombing of an installation 4km from Deir az-Zor.

Google Earth (or Google Maps or Wikimapia, all the same images) is not good on that part of Syria. The images are Landsats dating from about 2000. Considerable changes could have taken place since then. The only major airfield I can see is the airport at Deir az-Zor.

If the suggestion is Iranian missiles flown in, and then being trucked to Hizbullah, then the storage point needs to be close to the airport.

If it is a hidden nuclear site, then it needs to be well out in the desert. Even Arab dictators do not place noxious substances in inhabited areas. They know that the products can leak, and that would lead to complaints from the local people. For example, Saddam Hussein and his famous gas production/storage installation at Samarra. It turned out that it was actually located more than 60 km out in the desert. The Assads are less autocratic than Saddam.

If Samuel’s report is correct, I would have thought that the nuclear option is excluded. Even if there were no actual radioactive materials involved, the Syrian government would have prepared in advance a site out in the desert, and transported whatever it was directly from the airfield. With the radioactives to be added later.

Landis,

sorry, but you “didn’t get a tip” 4 days ago, but simply repeated some nonesense John Bolton was delivering via the WSJ.

Why you had to repeat that is above me. The NYT now has one (1) admin official pandering about what Israelis are said to say. (my bet is on Elliot Abrams).

The RPS with neocon Ghadry is pandering such rumours for years. Are you taken this serious? Than you should think about handing your doctorate back.

Playing the echo chamber for such bullshit certainly deminishes any value of your insights.

Ehsani,

The Syrians are not asking for Arab help. Don’t worry, and don’t over analyze what Buthaina and Waleed Mouallem say in public.

Nothing changed. Syria does nto have nuclear weapons, Israel did not destroy Syria’s missiles capabilities.

It was probably Mr. Barak’s brilliant tactics of reducing Syria’s self perception of its power in the area and reducing its self confidence and others’ (Europeans, American think tanks) heightened appreciation of Syria’s relevance in the area. He probably wants to talk peace with the Syrians, eventually … but only after he deflates their ego… and after he takes away some of their cards.

Same stupidity that Mr. Barak exhibited when he tried to get a last minute compromise over few meters of the Golan from Hafez Assad who was known to be in his last weeks. Instead he missed a historic opportunity to end the conflict.

And of course his other smart idea was to unilaterally withdraw from Lebanon “to take away the Hizbollah card from the Syrians” … seven years later, it seems that card is still firmly in their hands.

Mr. Barak loves to outsmart the Syrians. Today, as a defense minister, this is how he believes he can contribute.

Nothing will change on the long run … Syria is not giving up anything. Mr. Barak can continue to design strategies for taking away Syria’s cards, and again… nothing will change.

But as least, in Israel it seems the army’s morale is up as a result of this incident. If this is true, then that’s good news. Hopefully this will do and they won’t have to invade Lebanon again to make up for last year’s defeat.

Okay, one more unsettled issue here, how were the troops required to carry out the ‘Clandestine’ operation mobilized to the location? were they Parachuted? heli-transpoted?.. .. .. I dont think it is that easy …

In addition to Alex’s comment above, if the “Mother of All Arial Incursions” had succeeded in hitting or doing something which is really worthwhile, we should expect the politically sinking Olmert and Bush to act jovially and puplicize such -or any other badly needed- success to boost the spirits of their constituancies. Since this is not happening, could we expect that the whole thing was not so? Actually the way this has been handled by the Bush and Olmert side seems shrowded in a somewhat “protective” tone and attitude.

Unless of course one chooses to assume that the Assad-lovers-kind-hearted Bushs and Olmerts of this world are now following a new policy called: Do Not Embarass Syria?

Weapon shipments to Hizbullah in Northeastern Syria (through US occupied Iraq?)? Korean Nuclear Facilities recon mission at night (whatever happened to yes-in-the-sky?)? Chemical Weapons in the desert as close as possible to the Syrian-Iraqi(US) boarder? Syrian-Iranian lomg-range Missile bases in the desert (not in the mountains mind you)? How about a secret meeting of a Syrian-supported Iraqi resistance groups (new theory!)??

I love McDonald’s motto: KISS ; a simple recon mission intended to draw a tough political reaction that was caught and rebuffed.

But really, what difference would any of this make so late in the game?

Syria could be planning a military response to the alleged
Israeli airstrike in northern Syria on Sept. 6, the Kuwait-based Al
Jareeda reported. The report also says a Syrian delegation met
recently with top Hezbollah and Hamas officials to draw up a
retaliation plan, and that the Syrian army has started drafting
reservists in response to Israel’s raised alert levels in the
north. Israel-based newspaper Al Sinara reported Sept. 12 that the
Israeli air force hit a Syrian-Iranian missile base, which was
supposedly destroyed.

But we are still waiting for the penny to drop: Word from Ahmad al Jarralah and his usual informative truths and analysis in his Al Syassah newspaper.

Frank,

One of the ways they hope Syria will react is to ask HA to strike Israel on their behalf .. but by now, HA is not a proxy Syria wants to use against Israel … everyone is waiting for HA to make this huge mistake … but there are serious issues to be settled in Lebanon these days, and Syria will not ask HA to discredit itself in Lebanon by hitting Israel on Syria’s behalf which can only mean another Israeli war on Lebanon and popular resentment towards HA and the opposition in general… ain’t gonna happen.

Ausamaa … we are all waiting for Al-Syassah’s version of what happened and especially what WILL happen … I bet they will tell us how the evil Asef Shawkat made money from the Koreans and the Iranians by accepting to host their nuclear scientists and materials in Syria… and probably they will also tell us that Bashar’s wife is taking the children to England … escaping, like she did when Hariri was assassinated and Mehlis found THE evidence that incriminated Maher and Asef.

The funny thing, is that a friend of mine, a journalist who is covering this story in one of the largest newspapers, called me to tell me that his editor while researching the topic, found an amazing story! … he found a 2006 article in Al-Syassah that talked about Syria acquiring nuclear weapons! … as if that proves it!

It is astonishing how a set of utterly biased sources can create reality these days … Al-Syassah, Farid Ghadry, Bolton, Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Moustaqbal, Mehlis.

The Israeli media is providing very little information about the true nature of what happened in Syria, due to censorship, which is very rare and being used only in extreme cases of national security issues.

Although there’s no doubt that every Israeli reporter knows exactly what happened, what were the targets and what were the results of the attack, nothing is being said openly.

The only thing that the media can do in such cases, is quoting foreign media sources and report what they say about the story – and indeed, they quote credible foreign news sources from the Arab & int’l media all the time.

However, since the media is dying to share what it really knows with the public, it keeps providing hints and leads about the whole thing, so any viewer with average intelligence can read between the lines and understand in general terms what happened.

After doing some ‘reading between the lines’, here are my conclusions:

The targets was directly linked with the North Korean nuclear program.
You can’t tell from the reports if the target was a nuclear facility (like a reactor), a storage facility of nuclear equipment, raw nuclear related materials, ready for use weapons, etc.

However, the link to the North Korean nuclear program is 100% there.

A second point that the Israeli media is highlighting is that the target had an enormous importance – probably on a strategic level.

It keeps pointing out that no such attack would have been getting a green light unless it had a huge importance or urgency.

A third point which the local media is mentioning is that it was a successful operation.
It kept running a short video clip of the IDF senior command meeting, hours after the attack, and everybody were smiling there from ear to ear.

Media commentators said that nobody smiles like this after a failure, implying that it was a successful operation.

Soloman is talking out of his arse. UNSC 1701 OP 15 states:

OP15. Decides further that all states shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories or using their flag vessels or aircraft,

(a) the sale or supply to any entity or individual in Lebanon of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, whether or not originating in their territories, and

(b) the provision to any entity or individual in Lebanon of any technical training or assistance related to the provision, manufacture, maintenance or use of the items listed in subparagraph (a) above, except that these prohibitions shall not apply to arms, related material, training or assistance authorized by the Government of Lebanon or by UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11;

So Israel can only deal with Israelis, Israel, Israeli planes and Israeli ships. It cannot touch Syrians, Syria, Syrian planes or Syrian ships under this UNSC resolution.

One of the meanings is “to prevent, using their flag vessels or aircraft,” – one just has to analyze the prepositions correctly. See the referenced discussion at Blacksmiths of Lebanon for details.

L’shana tovah and a good start to Ramadan for all!

Alex, as a longtime NK watcher, I do not believe North Korea paid for nuclear facility hosting. It’s ridiculous story.

North korean are destitute people, far poor than syrian. They desperately want to earn some hard-currency by selling weapon or weapon-technology and sometimes accept barter-trading.

They have superior nuclear/missile technology than syrian. Why they need to pay their precious money? They are seller, not buyer, basically.

Ehsani:

Calling your Arab brothers half men and then running to ask for their support does not strike me as consistent policy.

The fact of the matter is that the regimes in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc. are comprised of half men. The other half of them is sitting on Dick Cheney’s mantle next to his hunting trophies.

I wonder which half he has? Either way I’m sure he derives much pleasure from them.

Solomon,

Please, just shut up. What is it with you zionists? For every resolution ever passed, the zionists will re-write, re-interpret, dissect, dice, slice, blend, filter, fold, mutilate, spindle and generally annoy the PISS out of everyone with their half-assed and insane readings.

If there was a resolution that stated, “The sky is blue”, the zionists would ask, “Well, which sky? You said the sky but there is in fact many skies, depending on where one is standing. And which shade of blue? The resolution was intended to mean a cobalt shade, but in fact here in Israel the sky is more of an aqua.”

If anyone wonders why much of the world hates Israelis, all one need do is be informed by people like Solomon.

Ugh.

Solomom2
Since when have the opinions of a few right-wing zionist commentators on a blog site been of any interest in deciding international law?

Since when have warships or planes been flag vessels or planes?

To ensure this principle of the freedom of the high seas, international law generally prohibits, with certain carefully delineated exceptions, any nation from asserting jurisdiction over foreign vessels on the high seas. Thus, unless one of the few exceptions is applicable, a vessel on the high seas is said to be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the flag state. Finally, the third principle is that a vessel in the territorial waters of a state other than its flag state is ordinarily subject to the concurrent jurisdiction of the coastal state and the flag state; the nature and extent of the coastal state’s jurisdiction vary with the particular circumstances. Warships and other government vessels entitled to sovereign immunity are not subject to this concurrent jurisdiction.

The Turkish government been very quiet, despite apparently having its airspace entered by foreign military aircraft. This suggests some deal was done ahead of the event- perhaps involvement or at least tacit acceptance. What was Turkey’s price for its non-reaction?

Can somebody wakes me up when they find what was destroyed , apparently nothing , otherwise we will be hearing about the superiority of the Israeli air force , like that will do anything to an Iraqi style war. look at what is happening to the US in Iraq.
NK showed more solidarity with Syria than the half men , we all know who they are and they know themselves.

Joshua – if there really was a large hole somewhere in northern Syria, the world would find out about it fairly quickly. Although the Google satellite imagery you see here is fairly low resolution, there are commercial satellite operators who can provide imagery of far higher resolution (spot the Donut Hole!).

I also suspect that the dropping of the fuel tanks is significant. Generally, a warplane will drop the spare fuel tanks before starting a bombing raid so that it is more maneuverable and can accelerate far quicker if attacked, so the suggestion that the Israeli aircraft dropped their tanks in response to the Syrian missiles suggests that they hadn’t started their attack run.

Furthermore, I think that it is unlikely that the Syrians wanted to shoot down the Israeli planes, after all they know that they are the ones who would be condemned in certain circles as the aggressor. I suspect that it is more likely that they just wanted to scare the shit out of the Israelis so they may have missed on purpose. The warning of further action is aimed at pointing out to the Israelis that if they try this on again, then next time, the Israelis may not be so lucky.

Finally, anything I hear from John Bolton concerning NK, Syria and Iran I know is complete and utter crap. The man has cried wolf to often to be believed

this is interesting analysis,

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Alsiasa,

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N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility

By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 13, 2007; Page A12

North Korea may be cooperating with Syria on some sort of nuclear facility in Syria, according to new intelligence the United States has gathered over the past six months, sources said. The evidence, said to come primarily from Israel, includes dramatic satellite imagery that led some U.S. officials to believe that the facility could be used to produce material for nuclear weapons.

The new information, particularly images received in the past 30 days, has been restricted to a few senior officials under the instructions of national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley, leaving many in the intelligence community unaware of it or uncertain of its significance, said the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Some cautioned that initial reports of suspicious activity are frequently reevaluated over time and were skeptical that North Korea and Syria, which have cooperated on missile technology, would have a joint venture in the nuclear arena.

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A White House spokesman and the Israeli Embassy declined to comment yesterday after several days of inquiries. A Syrian Embassy spokesman said he could not immediately provide a statement.

The new intelligence comes at an awkward moment for the Bush administration, which since the beginning of the year has pursued an agreement with North Korea on ending its nuclear weapons programs. U.S. and North Korean officials held talks last month in Geneva on the steps needed to normalize relations, and this week a delegation of U.S., Russian and Chinese experts visited North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility to consider ways to disable it. The New York Times first reported on the intelligence linking North Korea and Syria yesterday.

At the Geneva talks, North Korea indicated a willingness to satisfy U.S. questions about an alleged uranium-enrichment program that started the crisis over its nuclear ambitions, the sources said. U.S. officials have said that North Korean officials acknowledged the program in 2002, but Pyongyang subsequently denied doing so. In the meantime, it restarted a plutonium facility at Yongbyon and harvested enough weapons-grade material for as many as 10 nuclear weapons. In October, it tested a nuclear device.

In talks in Beijing in March 2003, a North Korean official pulled aside his American counterpart and threatened to “transfer” nuclear material to other countries. President Bush has said that passing North Korean nuclear technology to other parties would cross the line.

Israel conducted a mysterious raid last week against targets in Syria. The Israeli government has refused to divulge any details, but a former Israeli official said he had been told that it was an attack against a facility capable of making unconventional weapons.

Others have speculated that Israel was testing Syria’s air defenses in preparation for a raid on Iran or that Israel was targeting weapons destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Bashar Jaafari, the Syrian ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters that the idea of a Hezbollah connection was ridiculous.

Syria has signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty but has not agreed to an additional protocol that would allow for enhanced inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. GlobalSecurity.org, which offers information on weapons of mass destruction, said that “although Syria has long been cited as posing a nuclear proliferation risk, the country seems to have been too strapped for cash to get far.”

Syria has a Chinese-supplied “miniature” research reactor at Dayr al-Hajar, but has been unable to obtain larger reactors because of international pressure on potential sellers.

John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and a critic of the administration’s dealings with North Korea, said that given North Korea’s trade in missiles with Syria, it is “legitimate to ask questions about whether that cooperation extends on the nuclear side as well.”

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Now more Israeli moves..

Israel helicopters spent one hour today hovering over the Shebaa Farms and IDF patrols are deployed from Ghajar to Wadi el-Assal in Lebanon

Abraham chimes in on Professor Josh’s Syrian “Peace” page:

If anyone wonders why much of the world hates Israelis, all one need do is be informed by people like Solomon.

I find those that hate Israelis are either anti-semitic, jealous or both.

American sympathy for Israel has always been quite high; much higher than American sympathy for people who give out sweets on 9-11.

http://www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/video/palestinians-celebrate-911.mov

Syria doesn’t want nukes! Syria doesn’t need nukes! Syria doesn’t want war! Can the spin stop? This is just business as usual for the IDF and their war pigs. If all things being equall now, and the 67 war was fought today….Arabs would be victorious. Back is 67 our uncles and fathers were pusses, most retreated after the 3rd day back to their villages hiding from MP looking for deserters. This is a new day. The Syrian people GOD bless them have the will and determination to overcome anything!!

for Syria to complain to the security council,they must be willing to show the evidence,which means that a team will come to Syria to inspect the area where bombing occur, or pictures prove the attack,otherwise the SC will do nothing,Syria has not shown any evidence yet.
the crisis between KSA and Syria,is getting worse,as accusation that Syria was involved in the attempt to assassinate Ambassador Khoja in Lebanon

06:08 U.S. may provide $25 million in fuel to North Korea (AP)
04:18 State Department: U.S. officials inspected `everything` at N. Korea nuclear site (AP)

Would there be such news (a couple hours old) like those above if USA/Israel would have proof North Korean nuclear technology and material “transfers” to Syria? Undoubtedly US and Israeli regimes would make so much public noise as possible of those actions of the Axes of Evil if they would have any evidence. What would be the rational reason not to tell the world? USA has officially told the world wild stories about WMD programs in Iraq and Iran. Why not this time if there was evidence enough for Israel to take an enormous risk by making an air raid? Doesn’t make any sense.

Blowback’s comment about the Google satellite imagery. As he would have known if he had read my earlier comment, Google’s imagery (same images in Google Earth, Google maps and Wikimapia) in that part of Syria (and indeed most of Syria) is really old, dated not later than about 2000. It does not represent the situation of today. High resolution imagery, more recent, probably 2-3 years old, you can buy from Digital Globe for about $18 per km², which means that it is inaccessible for you and me.

ALEX_N – I know that the Google imagery of that area is poor although if you look on Yahoo, you will see imagery of better resolution and quality. The point I was making is that anyone can now pay to have fresh(the revisit rate for IKONOS is 3 to 5 days off-nadir and 144 days for true-nadir) high-resolution satellite imagery of the area taken, so if this story was anything more than White House propaganda, a newspaper/news agency/tv news network with money lying around could pay to establish whether or not there is a hole (not a Donut Hole) in the Syrian desert. Why do you think that the US government bought exclusive access to to Space Imaging’s imagery of Afghanistan while that country was being occupied?
For a major world exclusive, $200,000 (cost of 100km x 100km of imagery) is nothing for CNN. As a commercial operation, I expect that GeoEye has already checked their imgery to see if there is a story they could sell “at a price” to CNN or Faux News!

Akbar:

I am not anti-Jewish. I like Jews. It’s zionists that I dislike.

“Anti-semitic” is an improper term to use when referring to Israelis since most non-Arab Israelis are in fact of European descent. I am a Semite, since I am Syrian. I am not anti-Semitic, because I like me and my family and my people.

And why, I ask you, why would I be jealous of Israelis? They murder women and children; they occupy lands stolen from indigenous people; they build Apartheid walls through Palestinian farms and villages in order to facilitate their further theft; they steal American technology (something my tax dollars helped subsidize) and sell it to our adversaries like China and North Korea. Most Israelis are despicable people who worship colonialism and subjugation of a weaker people. Why would I envy such people? Why on Earth would I be jealous of human right abusers and war criminals, with a record in the United Nations that put “rogue” nations like North Korea to shame? Tell me, oh wise one.

Your attempts to paint me as anti-Jewish only serve to make you look like a braying jack-ass (no offense to donkeys).

And as if that isn’t bad enough, you then link to an undated video (hosted by a hate site) of what we are told are Palestinian people celebrating. There is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that they are celebrating the 9/11 attacks. One must accept at face value the assertions of noted bigots and hate-mongers that this video represents Palestinians joyously extolling the suffering of Americans. Sorry, I don’t buy it.

Let me demonstrate how easy it is to play this dumb zionist game.

Here is video of Israelis celebrating the 9/11 attacks:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=6_EC8ckQ0N8

So happy were they of the attacks, knowing full well that it would tip the balance of American public sentiment against the Arabs, that they actually dressed up in their finest duds and threw a party. In fact, they celebrated so hard that the floor collapsed beneath them. What fanaticism!

In all seriousness, here is another video about five Israelis who were caught on 9/11/2001 celebrating the burning and collapse of the WTC:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBN6Nq-7CCc&NR=1

You see, when it comes to actual facts, that’s something the zionists will never have. They can only invent them, or buy them, or steal them.

Come back when you have some real facts with which to debate.

So happy were they of the attacks, knowing full well that it would tip the balance of American public sentiment against the Arabs

The British did the same after Hitler declared war on the U.S. Why? Because they knew that they were no longer alone, and with the U.S. as a powerful ally, the defeat of Nazi Germany was a certainty.

Abraham, perhaps you’d like to think a bit more carefully about the examples you choose as proofs?

[…] See also, N. Korea: Israeli invasion of Syrian airspace ‘dangerous provocation’ (Ynet) and Nuclear? Chemical? Missiles? What was hit? (Joshua Landis). […]