“Don’t think for a second Bashar is not on our radar, and that if these abuses continue we won’t sanction him,” a White House official told Dow Jones Newswires, referring to the Syrian president by first name.

Davutoglu: Internationalization of events in Syria will “lead to undesired outcomes”… Sunday, May 01, 2011

“Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said efforts should be exerted to prevent international intervention in Syria. Speaking at a TV program, Davutoglu said such an international intervention may lead to undesired outcomes, “Syria is our neighbor and a sovereign country. We give high importance to resolution of the matter within the country itself. There is still a chance for this. This chance should not be missed.”

Asked if there would be a military intervention in Syria where clashes escalated recently and asked to comment on policy Turkey would pursue, Davutoglu said, “we should work to prevent such a possibility. International intervention may lead to undesired results particularly in such nonhomogeneous societies in sociological sense.”

A friend in Damascus writes:

For the second Friday in a row, I have seen security forces taking cover because they were apparently being shot at. I am certain the security forces are still using more violence than the protectors, but there is definitely an armed anti-government element willing to shoot, or at least to shoot back. This week it was a village south of Damascus about 6 kilometers from Kafer Suseh. I think the hard core protesters are past the point of negotiation, and I am not optimistic.

The Republican Guard Defector? The most resent video today is this one. It purports to be the confession of a Republican Guard, but seems to be faked.

One commentator writes: “The kid that’s supposed to be a defected republican guard soldier looks nothing like that.. he looks like a southern Syrian in army uniform. I’m sure Syrian army experts can easily figure this out.. he did not name his unit, his commanders, his comrades or any other sensitive information to help support his claim.”

Here is a video explaining why the supposed defector is wearing the wrong uniform, wrong badges, wrong hair, wrong rings, and wrong Syrian identity card and could not be a Republican Guard.

An exchange between Hisam Melhem and Michael Young on twitter:

“Only way to influence merchant class in Damascus & Allepo 2 turn against Bashar is for US & EU to impose sanctions a la Iran”

Rain has fallen in Eastern Syria in amounts not seen for 10 years. But the downfall has caused some flooding, reported below.

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Elie responds to this news report:

Syria’s wheat production in 2008 was some 2.5 million tons. Syria is also accustomed to sharp fluctuations in wheat production–in 2007, it was 4.5 million tons. So, 736 tons of wheat lost to flooding is minuscule.

In terms of surface, the figures are also tiny. To put 592 hectares of irrigated wheat in perspective, Syria’s irrigated wheat surface is some 700,000 hectares, of which 250,000 hectares are in the Hasake area. Likewise, cotton’s damage of 205 hectares is minuscule–Syria’s cotton area is some 250,000 hectares. The reported figures are so tiny, they are meaningless.

Syrian Petition for Political Change: A Missed Opportunity
By Reinoud Leenders at Jadaliyya

30 April 2011. Given the atrocities currently committed in Syria and the spectacularly bad press this generates for the regime, one would think that issuing an effective petition calling for political change in this country would be an easy task. All such a petition needs to do is to jump on the bandwagon of rapidly mounting protests and express the deeply felt anger across large sections of the Syrian population. In addition, any serious public appeal would demonstrate that there is a viable alternative to the regime; by way of clever proposals for political change and in reference to an impressive list of signatories from Syria’s brightest and most respected minds. Yet somehow the initiators of the ‘National Initiative for Change’ managed to do none of all this….

‘We want jobs and stability not radical change’
Published on 1 May 2011

EYEWITNESS Syrian people are crying out for reforms that the current regime has failed to deliver, but do not want the West involved by Trevor Royle, Diplomatic Editor

Sitting in a roadside café outside the city of Homs, Yusuf was clear what he and many young, educated Syrians want.

“We’re not looking for radical change,” he said. “We’re looking for worthwhile jobs and stability – and we want the government to listen to what we’re saying.”

Yusuf is not his real name – the security forces take reprisals against those who want awkward facts to be known – but the location is real. A fortnight ago I was following the route taken by Allied forces in the spring of 1941 as they swept into Syria to unseat the Vichy French administration. Seventy years later, regime change was again on people’s minds – but this time the Syrians intend to do it themselves. “We don’t want the West to get involved, so stay away,” said Yusuf and his friends.

Homs and the nearby city of Hama were on the point of joining forces to protest against the policies of the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad, and across the country the tension was palpable as Syria faced up to the reality of the Arab Spring. Like other countries in the region, Syria is hovering on the brink of revolution as thousands of people demand change. It has been a slow-burning fuse. Six weeks ago the southern town of Daraa was racked by political protests when people took to the streets to demonstrate against the lack of basic freedoms. As the violence escalated and spread to other centres, including the capital Damascus, the government responded with force. An estimated 500 people have been killed.

Mark Ellison – An American in Syria describes the atmosphere in Damascus
Thoughts on Syria

A typical day in Damascus at a time when Syria is apparently gripped by chaotic bloody turmoil and descending quickly into sectarian civil war… or something.

What is going on in Syria?

Some have asked me what it’s like to be witnessing history — I’d say so far we haven’t exactly witnessed history, but just a lot of men driving around their cars honking horns and waving photos of the president. This is to say, the pro-government movement is a lot more vocal in Damascus, and as a result the security situation there is as stable as always. Same in Aleppo. The vast majority of Syrians — 98% by some estimates, if we believe only 400,000 or so have participated in protests — do not want to face the unknown, the uncertainty, the potential chaos that an overthrow of the government might entail.

One thing to me is clear: there is not yet a strong, uniform, nationwide movement striving for the downfall of the Assad government. Most of the anger and frustration expressed by normal Syrians is because of economic hardship, not because they are supercharged over the need for democracy, etc. The violence in Daraa was an isolated incident, but was so severe that it sparked anger not only there but in a number of Syrian cities. Syrians only have to look to neighboring Lebanon and Iraq to see what sectarian conflict can bring about — civil war — and no Syrian wants civil war. They don’t want to see their country destroyed……

U.S. Moves Cautiously Against Syrian Leaders
By MARK LANDLER
Published: April 29, 2011

…President Obama has not demanded that President Bashar al-Assad resign, and he has not considered military action. Instead, on Friday, the White House took a step that most experts agree will have a modest impact: announcing focused sanctions against three senior officials, including a brother and a cousin of Mr. Assad.

The divergent American responses illustrate the starkly different calculations the United States faces in these countries. For all the parallels to Libya, Mr. Assad is much less isolated internationally than the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. He commands a more capable army, which experts say is unlikely to turn on him, as the military in Egypt did on President Hosni Mubarak. And the ripple effects of Mr. Assad’s ouster would be both wider and more unpredictable than in the case of Colonel Qaddafi. ….

President Barack Obama ordered a freeze on U.S. assets and other sanctions against three Syrian officials, including Assad’s brother, Mahir al-Assad, the brigade commander of the Syrian Army’s 4th Armored Division, and a cousin, Atif Najib, who was head of the Political Security Directorate for Daraa Province last month when demonstrators were killed by security forces. Ali Mamlouk, head of intelligence…

The sanctions also target the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate and the Quds Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for providing “material support” for the Syrian government’s crackdown on demonstrators.

The measures are aimed at forcing Assad’s government to end the violence against civilians immediately, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Washington yesterday.

The U.S. wants to convince the regime that “its behavior and actions are going to be held to account and they must begin taking steps to respond to the legitimate aspirations” of the Syrian people, Clinton said, adding that the crackdown on protesters is “absolutely deplorable.”

See the “Voting results of Special Session resolution on Syria“. See also this link to the text of the statement plus the text of an earlier statement that wasn’t able to get a majority vote.

Regional implications of the recent unrest in Syria by DG.

….The widespread idea that the fall of Assad would mean the end of Syria’s alliance with Iran and various resistance groups seems wrong-headed to me. Syria’s place in the alliance is not about Baathist ideology but all about the on-going Israeli occupation of the Golan. The fall of Assad is not going to magically solve the Golan problem. It seems to me highly unlikely that any successor regime would be able to simply give up on regaining the territory and hope to stay in power very long; while there obviously isn’t much in the way of opinion poll data to support this, I think the general understanding is that popular Syrian desire to regain the territory remains strong. A successor regime would likely be dominated by Sunnis rather than Alawites and might be less inclined to maintain an alliance with Shiite Iran on sectarian grounds but this is not a serious long-term obstacle to the alliance; Hamas and IJ after all are hardline Sunni groups. As long as Syria remains in serious dispute with Israel over the territory, it has a strong incentive to try to bolster its strategic position by aligning itself with other anti-Israeli forces in the region.

ELBARADEI IN THE FT

ElBaradei’s manner is relaxed and genial. As we talk, though, it becomes clear he is anything but relaxed about the situation in Egypt. He is distressed by a situation that he describes as a “political and constitutional mess”. The ruling military council that took over as an interim government after the fall of Mubarak has announced it is planning to hold parliamentary and then presidential elections before the end of the year. But the electoral rules and the balance of power between president and parliament have yet to be decided. ElBaradei has confirmed he is running for the presidency but seems baffled by the situation he finds himself in. “How can you run for president if you don’t know the job description?” he asks, half-smiling, half-shrugging.

I ask why the military are in such a hurry. “I’ve no idea. I think they have a political hot potato and they just want to get rid of it.” But the atmosphere of uncertainty and a sharp deterioration in the economy is leading to a general feeling of insecurity. “People are buying guns to protect themselves”, says ElBaradei, grimacing. He also fears that the move to early elections will be bad for the liberal groups that drove the Egyptian revolution forward. “It will give an advantage to the most organised groups, which is, basically, the Muslim Brotherhood.”

I pull a face at the mention of a group that wants to turn Egypt into an Islamic state but ElBaradei says, “I’m not worried so much about the Muslim Brothers as about the Salafis,” referring to ultra-fundamentalist, Saudi-influenced, Islamist groups, many of whom are now organising political parties. “Some of them, well, there is no common ground with them. They want a completely theocratic state. One of their spokesmen said the other day that democracy is against Islam, and the ultimate authority should be the Koran as, of course, interpreted by him.” So how powerful are the Salifis? “That is something I don’t know … I’m told they have a lot of influence over the illiterates.” This is not a particularly comforting thought since, as ElBaradei points out, one-third of Egypt’s population of 80m is illiterate….

ElBaradei is as aware of Egypt’s growing cultural conservatism as he is of its poverty. With regret, he says, “When I went to Cairo University in the 1960s, there was not a single woman with a headscarf; right now I’m told it’s, maybe, 80 per cent. The country has become a lot more conservative.”….

Hamas says its politburo to remain in Syria
2011-04-30 10:39:16.146 GMT

GAZA, Apr 30, 2011 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Islamic Hamas movement said Saturday that its politburo will remain in Syria, denying reports that Damascus asked its exiled leaders to leave.

Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar
by As’ad AbuKhalil:

It is clear that Qatar (as is clear from this Qatari government daily) is promoting the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as the alternative to the regime.

Syrian Businessman Becomes Magnet for Anger and Dissent

MB Statement on Incidents in Syria
By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: April 30, 2011

….Egypt had Ahmed Ezz, the steel magnate who favored tight Italian suits (and now faces trial in white prison garb). In Tunisia, it was Leila Traboulsi, the hairdresser who became the president’s wife, then a symbol of the extravagance of the ruling family. Mr. Makhlouf, 41, is Syria’s version, a man at the intersection of family privilege, clan loyalty, growing avarice and, perhaps most dangerously, the yawning disconnect between ruler and ruled that already reshaped authoritarian Syria even before the protests. ….

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30 ????? , 2011

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Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600 billion in Turkey’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the next 20 years, said the chief executive of the National Commercial Bank.

Abdul Kareem Abu Alnasr, whose bank is the biggest Saudi lender, said that his country’s exports represent about 76 percent of the total GCC exports to Turkey, dubbing the Anatolian country as an important trade partner.

He said trade between the two has reached $5.5 billion in 2008 up from $1.3 billion in 2002 boosted by the demographic of the two countries, as both have two-thirds of their populations below the age of 30.
Turkey’s GDP for the year 2015 is expected to be $1 trillion, which would make it the 17th biggest economy worldwide, while the Saudi GDP will be the 19th at roughly $700 billion. (If oil prices stay high, then Saudi Arabia’s GDP is likely to rise.)

Because of high oil prices Mr. Alnasr said that Saudi Arabia managed to lower its debt of 80 percent of its GDP in 2003 to 15 percent in 2010.

Saudi Arabia, like many of Gulf countries, needs to deal with the issue of food security, and its investment in Turkey’s agriculture and manufacturing is set to increase, Mr. Alnasr said.

A Comment from a friend on the article about Saudi investment in Turkey:

Syria will not get 20% of that. It will not do so because it has not got its act together. It only pays lip service to wanting investments. It has done nothing to back it up. When a Saudi businessman took the government to task during a conference in Damascus two years ago, many laughed it off. Rather than take what the man said seriously, they did nothing. There is no rule of law that can protect the property rights of international business investors. There is too much red tape and corruption. This is why Syria ranks very low in the ease of doing business surveys. Sadly, it is for a very good reason. A friend of mine advised the government on this survey. He works for a consulting group that has helped KSA to move up the ranks in the same survey. When he presented the bill to the government, the ex PM shot it down. It was a contract worth $1mm a year for 3 years. No one in the country was willing to sponsor the effort. It died down. when a country wants to attract $75 billion over 5 years, it must be willing to spend $3-4 million to help its image and rankings. Syria does not see it that way. As a result we are makanak raweh….Turkey is booming. We are watching and have the gear in reverse.

TED KOPPEL: THE ARAB SPRING AND U.S. POLICY: THE VIEW FROM JERUSALEM
By Ted Koppel: The Wallstreet Journal April 29, 2011

Israeli officials want a public commitment from Washington to protect the Saudi regime should it come under threat..

Blood ties at heart of Syria regime
IAN BLACK – Guardian News & Media
30 April 2011

Syrie: Les minorités ont peur
Damas, Talal el-Atrache
Sunday, May 01, 2011

Alors que les manifestations se propagent graduellement en Syrie, les minorités religieuses se cantonnent dans le domaine politique, évitant de prendre part à ce soulèvement sans précédent dans l’histoire moderne du pays. Chrétiens, druzes et alaouites, ismaéliens et chiites adhèrent aux revendications démocratiques, tout en préconisant une solution politique à travers un dialogue national. Entre-temps, la peur s’installe.

Les réformes annoncées par le président Bachar el-Assad n’ont pas suffi à apaiser les tensions et à convaincre les contestataires. Une partie des manifestants qui exigeaient des réformes démocratiques ont poussé d’un cran leurs revendications et appellent désormais à la chute du régime. Le pouvoir, pour sa part, semble déterminé à mater par la force ce soulèvement populaire, derrière lequel il voit la main des islamistes. Depuis une semaine, l’armée et les troupes d’élite de la Garde républicaine érigent des barrages militaires sur les principaux axes routiers du pays et à l’entrée de chaque ville. Les régions les plus concernées par le soulèvement, notamment la province de Deraa, les villes de Banias et de Homs, ainsi que la banlieue nord de Damas sont investies par l’armée. Des milliers de soldats appuyés par des chars passent à l’offensive et ratissent les principaux centres de contestation. Les mosquées ainsi que les maisons sont fouillées, des centaines de personnes sont arrêtées, dont les membres des comités qui organisent les manifestations.

La population, pour sa part, semble divisée. Si la nécessité de réformer de fond en comble le système politique fait l’unanimité des Syriens, il ne va pas de même en ce qui a trait aux manifestations, qui restent centrées en grande partie autour des mosquées et culminent après les prières et les sermons du vendredi. Dans ce pays régi par une main de fer, les mosquées représentent pour les uns le seul lieu de rassemblement et un efficace instrument de mobilisation. Pour les autres, il s’agit d’un lieu de culte sélectif, qui ne peut rassembler les différentes composantes de la population. Certains intellectuels, à l’instar du poète Adonis, ont été violemment critiqués pour avoir soulevé ce point. Et pourtant, cinq semaines après le début du mouvement populaire, les manifestants n’ont toujours pas réussi à entraîner les minorités religieuses, qui représentent près de 30% de la population syrienne.

Ces minorités, notamment alaouites, chrétiennes, druzes, ismaéliennes et chiites, ne sont pas descendues dans la rue, à quelques exceptions près. Plusieurs facteurs expliquent leurs réticences, notamment l’absence de toute alternative capable de maintenir l’ordre et de garantir l’unité du pays en cas de renversement du régime, ainsi que la crainte d’un dérapage vers un conflit inter-religieux instrumentalisé par les puissances régionales. Ces inquiétudes varient d’une communauté à l’autre, selon leur spécificité et leur situation sociopolitique…..

The following are two takes on the revolution:

The first is by “Australians for Syria”. When I asked one of the leaders if a majority of members were Christian, I got this answer:

That is probably a correct assumption.  I say probably because I don’t conclusively know that. At the initial meeting we held there were Christians, Alawites, Sunnis and Shiites. All were representatives of various community groups and organisations that believe in a secular society. Naturally in that setting you don’t always know (and its a bit of a taboo to ask) about a persons religion.

My reply to him:

Many thanks, Sami. The reason I ask is that I have a similar note from a Sunni friend who assures me that most of his Sunni friends are now arguing for a revolution. He says they believe a revolution and possible civil war is inevitable and perhaps necessary – even better than going on like this. They don’t mind greater MB participation in society.

Most non-Sunnis I know, do not want greater MB participation and fear civil war. Christians are particularly concerned and believe that the loss of Syria would be the final straw that would ignite a big exodus fromt the region. Best, Joshua

Australians for Syria call for a peaceful resolution to protests

In light of the recent troubles in Syria, a group of Australians of Syrian background have founded “Australians for Syria”, a collective tasked with voicing their views on the current issues in their country of origin. Australians for Syria:

1. Support all legitimate calls for political reform in Syria;
2. Support the abolition of the Emergency Law and call for a speedy implementation of laws allowing political parties to freely operate in the country;
3. Condemn the use of force to quell peaceful political protest;
4. Offer condolences to the families of all those who have lost their lives- civilians, protestors and security personal alike;
5. Furthermore, Australians for Syria express the following grave concerns:
   1. The protests appear to be increasingly sectarian. Reports from Syria suggest that what began as protests for reform have now disintegrated into calls for regime change motivated by sectarian divides and fuelled by radicals and extremists. Australians for Syria distinguish between legitimate calls for reform and sectarian riots;
   2. Some protestors have become violent. Syrian police, security personal and civilians belonging to minority groups have been deliberately targeted. There have been reported cases of revenge killings, ambushes and reprisals. Political freedoms cannot be achieved by violent means nor by riots aimed at causing property damage to public buildings.
   3. Sectarian violence may lead to a civil war in Syria and the disintegration of the Syrian state. Australians for Syria oppose any outcome in Syria that leads to the break-up of the state and its secular identity. Calls for the establishment of a “Syrian Emirate” are hereby condemned as such views are a reflection of Islamic extremism.
6. In light of the above concerns and with a view to resolving the troubles in the country, Australians for Syria call on the Syrian people to:
   1. Allow the new Syrian cabinet an opportunity to implement the promised reforms;
   2. Distance themselves from radicals and extremists and not partake in violent street protests;
   3. Reject calls for regime change. Syrians are urged to consider the full ramifications of an overthrow of the regime and whether it is in the best interests of the country in light of the likelihood of sectarian violence.
7. Australians for Syria ask that the Australian media, political leaders and fellow citizens give serious thought to the above concerns when reporting, making decisions or discussing the events in Syria.

More information about Australians for Syria

Australians for Syria is comprised of members of political groups, community organisations, media organisations, charities and academics. They are Australians of various backgrounds who have been motivated to speak out in light of the troubles affecting Syria. For more details regarding any of the points raised please contact George Salloum on 0403 327 346, email [email protected] or search “Australians for Syria” on facebook.

A Sunni View from a friend from Homs: he writes:

A friend is trying to convince me that the revolution is good. Soooo many secular Muslims are thinking the same way. Here is what he said about the faking of the video confession of the Republican Guard, which has been circulating today. Many secular Muslims have been flipping to support revolution, so many. Here is the message that my friend sent:

If we know that most of what is being told by the nizam and Syrian media are BS why don’t we expect and accept the opposition would also lie. At the end of the day every movement has someone behind it and I think we are witnessing the media war at this stage. If it takes some lies to motivate the  poor and needy so be it.

More than 40 years shall not be acceptable. It is not acceptable for us to believe that only Assad and his followers would give us stability. If the Muslim Brothers are to rule, so be it. They would close bars and etc., but they can’t destroy the country more than it has already been destroyed.

We could anticipate destruction, instability, and civil war. It will not last for more than few years before the Syrian people finally come around. Destruction of buildings and infrastructure will take a few years to be rebuilt (Beirut is an example), but the destruction of social and educational values that has already taken place over the last forty years will take generations to rebuild. Syrian must start now.

Let Syria erupt and maybe in 6-10 years people there will learn how to become civilized.

Since last Tuesday, the central bank has started asking for more paper work and reasons why you need the 10k. Hours later the Syrian pound dropped from 49 to 52 to a dollar and then to 54 as people speculated that the Central Bank would not support the currency strongly. Someone did intervene at 54 and brought it down to 52.5. I think the risks are still high. 80 percent of all bank deposists are in syp. The chances of more money moving in dollars is large. The central bank must allow full and easy convertability so money stays in country. Like lebanon, you should be allowed to go from syp to dollars anytime. This way, money stays inside syrian banking system. Currently you need to go to the black market which ends up sending your dollars to swiss or leabanese banks. Another silly policy.

A Syrian friend writes:

My brother in law has fled Syria for good to Thailand (of all places),. He said he exchanged $10,000 on Thursday from the Masraf Tijari. He bought the rest at 53 from the black market. He left Syria with his wife yesterday. He sold his car on Wednesday. Why Thailand?  He has his best friend who lives there and has a shipping business.  So he sold everything in Syria and wants to join him in Thailand.  Dumb move?  Maybe, but he said he has now divorced Syria for good.

Life is short.  The chances of it becoming a failed state exceed that of it being a vibrant country. If western embassies opened their immigration doors, I doubt many young Syrians would remain in the country.

Last week it was announced on Syrian TV that the cap is now 5000! Total of 29 money exchange houses have been imprisoned for quoting syp exchange rates different than central bank rates.

Head of journalist union in Syria: number of casualties from the military/police/security as of today exceeded 90.

“Syrian Jews back al-Assad” according to Israeli newspapers Jpost

Rami Makhlouf on the “bad” people who are speculating on the Syrian Pound

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