“…If you insist on war, then our reactions will be unpredictable… Are we going to take responsibility for the consequences? Yes, we are ready to take the responsibility for the consequences. We are responsible people. We know what we are doing, and we know where we are standing. We are aware of the size of the conspiracy, scheme, and challenge. We know what we have, and we are ready to take responsibility for all consequences…”

———————————————————-

The gloves are off. Its almost 7am Beirut time. Checked all the video’s of the violence on various channels.

Today will tell whether things calm down or escalation is in the air. Rumours are circulating that Hardened Salafi fighters are being trucked into reinforce Sunni areas. (no verification)

Following Nasrallahs taunt that we have not asked for outside help, he is willing to escalate this further.

It might be the longest and most decisive day in Lebanon’s history, and this day might tell us whether Lebanon has a future as a State.

Naji said:

هل أخطأ فريق السلطة تقدير ردّ فعل حزب اللّه؟
ابراهيم الأمين
http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/72916

لم تكن هناك حاجة الى المزيد من التوضيحات في الكلام الذي أطلقه الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصر الله. كان حاسماً في اعتبار قرارات حكومة الرئيس فؤاد السنيورة بمثابة إعلان حرب تقف الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل وحلفاؤهما العرب خلفها، ما يوجب حسب مداخلته مواجهتها. لكن الجديد الذي سيربك الساحة هو إعلان نصر الله مغادرة منطقة الحياد الإيجابي التي سكنها نصر الله وحزب الله طويلاً والتي يقوم منطقها على اعتبار أن ما يجري لا يتجاوز الخطوط الحمر وقابل للاستيعاب. لكن جاءت التطورات الأخيرة لتقول بأنه لم يكن هناك إمكان للبقاء في هذه الدائرة، وأن الأمر يوجب الانتقال الى الدائرة الحمراء التي تؤدّي عملياً الى موجة من العنف الذي يأخذ البلاد الى فوضى وحرب أهلية.
قال نصر الله صراحة إن الحزب لا يريد الدخول في حرب أهلية ولا هو راغب في المواجهة ذات الطابع المذهبي، وإنه مستعد للحل من خلال إعادة الأمور الى ما كانت عليه قبل قرارات الحكومة الاخيرة. لكن هذا الموقف يعكس عملياً أن الحزب بات في وارد الذهاب الى أبعد مما ظن كثيرون سابقاً. وبالتالي فإن حركة الحزب على الأرض تأخذ شكل المتحسب لمواجهة شاملة، لا تقف عند حدود مجموعات تيار «المستقبل» الآتية بمعظمها من مناطق بعيدة في الشمال والبقاع، بل تلامس كل من يراه الحزب مسؤولاً عما يجري، وكان لافتاً تحديد السيد نصر الله لهوية رئيس الحكومة بأنه وليد جنبلاط، مع ما يعني ذلك من موقف يحمّل جنبلاط مسؤولية ما يحصل وبالتالي إشعاره بأنه مسؤول وعليه تحمّل المسؤولية.
وإذا كانت التطورات الميدانية غير قابلة لحصرها في دائرة أو في مكان، فإن المناخ السياسي الذي يرافق هذه المواجهة، يأخذ بعين الاعتبار أن فريق السلطة لم يكن مضطراً الى القيام بما قام به لولا شعوره بأن عليه واجباً والتزاماً، وتظهر مداولات الجلسة الاخيرة للحكومة أن هناك من تحفظ على التوجه، لناحية البحث في شكل آخر، مثل القول بأن أمر شبكة الاتصالات يمكن أن يعالج من خلال دوائر أمنية ووزارية معنية، وكذلك ملف رئيس جهاز أمن المطار الذي لا يحتاج الى قرار من الحكومة. لكن الواضح أن القرار كما صدر يعكس الحاجة إليه كوثيقة تسجل عند الغير، وتحديداً عند القوى المؤثرة خارجياً.
ويلفت مصدر قيادي في المعارضة الى أن الأمور بدت واضحة منذ مدة لا الآن، لأن طبيعة المداولات التي تخص ملف شبكة الاتصالات وملف العميد وفيق شقير، كما عرض السيد نصر الله لتفاصيلها، كانت تفتح الباب أمام تسويات لمن كان يرغب في الوصول الى تسوية. ومع ذلك فإن الفريق واصل سيره باتجاه ما انتهى إليه. ويرى المصدر أن الأصل يعود الى بعض الوقت، حين أبلغت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية الحلفاء في لبنان أن عليهم المبادرة وعدم الاكتفاء بالمطالبة والمناشدة فقط، وأن أقل الإيمان أن يبادروا الى خطوات شبيهة بتلك التي أقدم عليها رئيس السلطة الفلسطينية محمود عباس تجاه حركة حماس قبل أن يستنجد بالعالم لدعمه، وان الطلبات الى فريق السلطة في لبنان عاد وكررها ديفيد وولش عند زيارته الاخيرة الى لبنان، وهو الأمر نفسه الذي كان تيري رود لارسن قد طلبه من دبلوماسية 14 آذار.
وسرد المصدر ما يعتبره مسلسل «التحرش النوعي» بقوى المعارضة كافة، بدءاً بالحملة المستمرة على الرئيس نبيه بري واتهامه بإقفال المجلس النيابي بصورة كاملة ومن ثم إشعاره بأنه غير مرغوب فيه إلا شريكاً لهم، وهو تعرّض لعملية ضغط لم تكن ذروتها قرار السعودية عدم استقباله وتعامل مصر بلامبالاة مع زيارته، وكذلك تجاهل الجانبين الأوروبي والأميركي لمبادراته الحوارية. ثم كانت الحملة تشنّ دون توقف على العماد ميشال عون، بدءاً بحملة التهويل على وضع التيار الوطني الحر الداخلي واتخاذ مناقشات داخلية منصّةً للحديث عن ضرب التيار من الداخل، مروراً بحادثة زحلة التي ووجه فيها حليف عون الأساسي النائب إيلي سكاف بعد سلسلة من التحرشات بمناصرين لعون في أحياء وجامعات وصولاً الى إخراج النائب ميشال المر من كتلة عون ضمن حملة تهدف الى ضرب قواعده الشعبية وحملة ضغوط على رؤساء البلديات والمخاتير، ثم الشروع في عملية إنفاق مالية في مناطق نفوذ عون. وكان الأمر نفسه يجري في طرابلس وإقليم الخروب والبقاع الغربي حيث النشاط الاضافي لفريق السلطة الأمني والمالي بقصد إضعاف التجمعات السنية التي نجحت المعارضة في استقطابها.
ويضيف المصدر القيادي في المعارضة: بعدما فشلت مساعي الاحتواء والضغوط لم يجد هؤلاء أمامهم إلا السير نحو المكان الأكثر حساسية، وهنا ظهرت الحاجة من جديد الى دور خاص لجنبلاط الذي تخصّص في هذه الأمور، وكانت الحملة التي انطلقت تحت عنوان شبكة الاتصالات الخاصة بالمقاومة وأمن مطار بيروت الدولي، وفق سياق يهدف عملياً الى فرض وقائع جديدة من الإمساك بكامل مفاصل البنى الأمنية والمرافق الاساسية في الدولة وفق المنطق الذي يتحكم بعمل الاجهزة الامنية الخاضعة لسلطة فريق الاكثرية.
وبحسب هذا المصدر فإن استسهال الحكومة اتخاذ هذه القرارات عنى للمقاومة واحداً من أمرين: إما أن الفريق الحاكم لم يعد يملك مبادرة الاعتراض على الطلبات الخارجية، وإما أنه كان يعتقد بأن الأمور سوف تسير من دون ردة فعل. وفي الحالتين، يرى المصدر أن هذا الفريق ارتكب الخطأ الكبير الذي قاد الى خيار الرد والمواجهة وهو الخيار الذي لم تظهر كامل معالمه حتى اللحظة. لكن كان لا بد من اللجوء الى المواجهة المباشرة ـــــ يضيف المصدر ـــــ وباللغة التي تفتح أعين الفريق الحاكم على أن البلاد قابلة للاحتراق بصورة تسقط كل مصالحهم دفعة واحدة وتعيد فرض وقائع من نوع مختلف.
وإذا كان نصر الله أبقى الباب مفتوحاً أمام حل سهل ومن شأنه إدارة الامور صوب حلول متكاملة، وبالرغم من أن النائب سعد الحريري رد بسلة حوارية فيها بعض الاختلاف، فإن الاخير حاول ترضية المقاومة بترك قرارات الحكومة خارج مهمة التنفيذ، فيما طالب في المقابل بالتراجع عن شرطي الحكومة وقانون الانتخاب لانتخاب رئيس جديد. ويبدو أن ما دفع الحريري الى هذه الدعوة يأخذ بالاعتبار أموراً عدة أبرزها حقيقة ما يحصل في بيروت.

عدد الجمعة ٩ أيار ٢٠٠٨

May 9th, 2008, 4:41 am

Naji said:

They burned the Mustaqbal newspaper offices… (a service to free press!)…!

07:13 لليوم الثالث، الوضع في شوارع بيروت على حاله والاشتباكات لم تتوقف طوال الليل والازمة الى تصعيد
07:00 تلفزيون أخبار المستقبل: مبنى جريدة “المستقبل”يتعرض لهجوم بالرصاص والقذائف الصاروخية

I think this thing should stop today, …by noon, say…

May 9th, 2008, 4:44 am

Naji said: Edit

Now, Mustaqbal TV is off the air… another service to free press…?!

May 9th, 2008, 5:15 am

Naji;

Have things calmed down or are they getting worse?

JOSHUA, … THE GOVERNMENT “PROVOKED HEZBOLLAH”? WELL MY FOUR-YEAR OLD IS “PROVOKED” WHEN HE DOESN’T GET ICE CREAM AT EVERY MEAL TOO! SHOULD I JUST GIVE HIM ICE CREAM AT EVERY MEAL SO THAT HE WON’T BE PROVOKED?

Thomas,

That’s not a fair comparison. HA is representative of the biggest sect in Lebanon. Even without their weapons they are a force to be reckoned with. With all due respect to your four years old but skipping ice cream is not a direct threat to his existence. People are underestimating that this move was intentionally aimed at undermining HA security, the basis for their existence and past success. I appreciate when people want HA to dismantle but the cold hard reality is that its here to stay for the short to mid future and cannot be dismantled by force. So why aggravate the situation to get worse for everybody?

Good morning Clean Beirut.

So much for the Fears of those who FEARED a Civil War in Lebanon…. I hate to say it again, but a Civil War between WHO and WHO? Which I said once and agasin here.

Thanks God that this Civil War has been Finished within less than 24 hours.

This is of course due to the Wisdom and Self-Restraint of both Mini Harriri and Junmblat Jordanian trained and Saudi supplied Militias!!! LOL..

Why does every one who sides with the Bush/Israeli side speak so confidently then lose so miserably?

اللهم لا شماتة

Enlightened,

Things seemed to be calming down earlier, but then seem to have escalated again… not sure why…?! As you saw from earlier comments, I was expecting/hoping/calling for this thing to be over by noon today…, but now I am not sure anymore…!? As Aussama noted, the M14 side, and their Saudi/neo-con backers, have been a complete failure, as usual, and are now thoroughly defeated… so why is this thing continuing…??!

It seems that the salafi/qaida types have jumped in, as someone cautioned earlier, so… god help us all…!!

Naji, do you know of any available online broadcasting of Al Manar TV?

Offended,
No,…doesn’t their web site offer anything…?!

I guess you can recieve it through something like BuddyTV or something like that for $10 a month and they connect within minutes of paying. They provide NBN, LBC and Manar. Just do Lebanon TV search and you will get three or four such providers.

OTV just reported that the Khouja, the Saudi Ambsdr in Lebanon has carried a Saudi ADVICE to Siniora to resign..!!!

From Al Nahar Newspaper ticker:

10:03
المعارضة ترسل مجموعة أمنية لحماية عائلة الوزير حسن السبع بعد فرار
حراسه وقد عملت المجموعة على إخلاء عائلة السبع

This appears to have been a combined/coordinated Lebanese Army/Opposition “coup” that was met by a complete and sudden collapse of the M14 forces…!

You think the deadlock may now be broken? Maybe?

Naji,
I don’t know if you’re listening to Junblat on Al Arabiya. He’s basically saying that March 14th chose not to fight.

Ya Naji,

Who said that M14 has/had any “forces”? Loads of people kept talking about how M14 was “training” and all that – but it looks like M14 spoke the truth when it said “we don’t have militias”.

One could also characterize their “meltdown” as “they are the ones who did not want to kill fellow Lebanese and turn Beirut into a battlefield”…

HA/Amal are occupying West Beirut – the Israelis must be peeing in their pants with laughter today.

HA has used weapons against fellow Lebanese, its fighters have stormed and closed M14 media, stormed and burned an MPs house.

This looks pretty bad in the eyes of other Lebanese, including HA supporters, but especially FPMers.

HA just risked to turn itself into the very thing that its critics always accused it to be.

Where does HA want to go from here?

–MSK*

MSK, fine. But then who was fighting whome last night?

Dear Offended,

Well, it looks like one group was advancing & other shooting back. Or how many HA/Amal offices were attacked?

HA/Amal look to occupy West Beirut, by force. That won’t be forgotten for a while.

–MSK*

It is interesting to note that there was a much publicized call from General Suleiman to Pres Asad only a couple of days ago…!

Pres Asad just declared that what is happening in Lebanon is an internal matter and wished everybody luck…!! So great for Syria to be “out” of Lebanon…! 😉

Here’s a robust Google-Video posting of the original speech followed by the (also significant) Q&A
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-637761368301243589&hl=en

Dear MSK*:
What you’ve just confirmed contradicts what Junblat said earlier (that March 14 chose not to fight and handed over their offices to the army voluntarily). And it also means that they do have militia; albeit incompetent.

Offended, live streaming of Al-Manar TV is here:
http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/Live.asx
or here:
http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/ManarLive.aspx
It’s very temperamental though, with quite limited bandwidth. Too many requests and it times out.

Thanks HP.

MSK,

March 14 did have a militia and they were the ones who started shooting just like all other times there was any sort of demonstration or act of civil disobedience. This time, however, they didn’t expect the response they received. And they did completely melt down. They were shooting RPG’s for God’s sake. They had guns, bombs, RPG’s. They were armed, but were not up to the task fo a real fight. This is why they surrendered.

Israel is celebrating its 60th anniversary and will be getting a congratulatory visit by G.W. Bush. It is stronger than ever militarily, has diplomatic and economic ties with the greatest majority of the world. It is currently the only nuclear power in the Middle East and even if Iran or others also develop nuclear capability, Israel’s backing by the US’s nuclear power (recall H. Clinton: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81Jvk5b3WzI&feature=related ) continues to ensure their superiority. Hamas and Hizbollah tactics aren’t working, are they?

MSK,

This is now a military conflict. The politics associated with it will be drawn from the outcome.

The “outcome” is out already, the “military conflict” has been resolved. It is a done deal thing. Now. let us wait for the Political ramifications.

..or for Ja’ja to take a desoperate step by trying his own luck. The guy must be having a nervous breakdown by now. He is the only TOOL left it seems. But again, I am sure the Opposition have made allowances for such an eventuality.

Thomas said:

JOSHUA, … THE GOVERNMENT “PROVOKED HEZBOLLAH”? WELL MY FOUR-YEAR OLD IS “PROVOKED” WHEN HE DOESN’T GET ICE CREAM AT EVERY MEAL TOO! SHOULD I JUST GIVE HIM ICE CREAM AT EVERY MEAL SO THAT HE WON’T BE PROVOKED?

Welcome to the world of Islamic terrorism!

Now all you have to do is get Iran and Syria to arm your four-year old to the teeth and brainwash him/her that the reason there is no ice cream at every meal is because of George W. Bush and the evil Zionists.

Akbar Palace,

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah right, the world of “Islamic Terrorism”. The only terrorism was coming from your US allies, and they simply didn’t expect this reaction from Lebanon’s freedom fighters. Time for a new era in Lebanon, one that doesn’t include misguided US policy.

Well well well

The shabab are cheering the destruction of Beirut.

It’s so nice to see the true colors showing.

And it’s so nice to see people bending over backwards to explain things according to their own logic/propaganda sources. Yes yes of course March 14 had a militia, a trained and armed militia, a vicious one, and each and every one of their Salafi soldiers was kissed on the forehead by George Bush before being given his personal rocket launcher. But the trouble is, their balls are not as big as those of the Hizbullah guys, and that’s why they had a “meltdown”.

Give me break already.

I’m so glad that the rocket launchers that Hizbullah used to burn down the Mustaqbal building were divine ones. That makes me feel much better.

It is a sad day in Lebanon, and it is a sad day on Syria Comment too.

QN

“But the trouble is, their balls are not as big as those of the Hizbullah guys, and that’s why they had a “meltdown”.”
In any game, when you know you balls are not as big the opponent, you are careful not to provoke. It looks like the 14 March guys, freshly pumped by Condie Rice thought they could ignore that basic reality and bypass all the warnings Nasrallah gave in case the Resistance capabilities were threatened.
It is a sad day for Lebanon because the Lebanese are the victims of these greedy, irresponsible and hypocritical politicians who think they are smarter and keep throwing oil on fire, instead of dialoguing with calm and honesty.
Anyway the abces is open and the cards have changed irreversibly now at a dramatic cost. The No Looser No Winner leitmotiv is not on the agenda anymore.

It’s a tragic day for everybody. I’m on the Hizb side, but really I’m not on any side, because only compromise and consensus can run Lebanon. March 14 taking on the communications network was a provocation too far, but the sight of militia in the streets is heartbreaking. I wrote about it on my blog.

Thanks, Qunfuz. So glad someone isn’t celebrating.

QN,
I don’t think you are being fair. If you review all the comments, you will find a lot more concern and hope for the end of violence, than any gloating…!

Qunfuz, you said only compromise and consensus can run Lebanon. I agree with the importance of compromise but consensus is a sure path to gridlock and nothing else. A democratic process under a strong central government is the only way to fairness and stability. The Hizb is not playing by the rules but rather is using blackmail and hiding behind the “national resistance” excuse to extort more power than would fairly be allocated to them. The excuse of national resistance is no longer valid. I have no doubt that they are sincere and believe it. That doesn’t make it right.

But they are clearly going to win in the end. The Christian population in Lebanon is at ~ 35% and projected to be no more than 20% in less than a generation (20 years). I left 26 years ago and my younger relatives are all preparing for emigration. What amazes me the most is the utter brainwashing that has everyone believe it is Bush and Rice who are calling the shots. What is ignored is the true national aspirations of the Lebanese (and even the supposedly lunatic Junblat) to have a single strong government in Lebanon and a purely democratic process for governance. That excludes consensus. Majority rule with minority protection is not consensus.

Seems like the Saudis have a black eye today.

How about Marshal law now.?

My cousin Naji, the eloquence and power of Nasrallah rhetoric doesn’t make what he is saying right. By perpetuating a state-within-the-state instead of going to the polls (parliament) and merging his militia with the army he is destroying Lebanon. The brainwashing by the media which is suggesting that the US is calling the shots is extremely effective. That doesn’t make it right. The US is reactive and supportive not proactive in calling the shots or telling the local leaders what to do. Lebanon is not Iraq. And I am not naive as I suspect I’ll be tagged for the statement about US meddling.

If (when) HA triumphs, look for:
– reversal of the Lebanese government support of the Hariri tribunal
– request that the UN forces leave southern Lebanon
– signing of a mutual defense agreement with Syria
– (regrettably) the danger of a renewed military conflict with Israel that will bring about the utter destruction of Lebanon
– (possibly) a peace agreement between Syria and Israel where one of the (undeclared) prizes for Syria would be the renewed full control (without needing troops on the ground) of Lebanon.

I doubt any of the non-Lebanese on the blog would tolerate for one minute a state-within-the-state in their country. We saw what King Hussein did in 1970 and what Assad Sr. did in 1982. The argument that the Lebanese Army is weak is only valid because of the behavior of HA.

Having said all that, it is quite interesting to note the power of the spoken word when an orator such as Nasrallah is unmatched by anyone. The only one who is a distant second is Siniora, but he is too far behind to be effective. What we end up with is a monochromatic groupthink by many folks in Lebanon, and certainly the overwhelming contributors here on SC.

QN:

There should be some relief. So far, it doesn’t look anything like a repeat of 1975. (Remember the mortar barrages back then? They were awful.) And who knows? Maybe the new situation will now break the stalemate and a political solution finally taking effect. No gloating here, just guarded optimism, hoping for the best…

QN,

Future burned their own building, first of all. Second, they started shooting at the opposition. If they were not up to the task, why did they start shooting? You just want the opposition to take casualties everytime and just go on like nothing happened? They had to pay a price.

Beirut wasn’t destroyed, so no one is cheering the destruction of Beirut. And the opposition isn’t “occupying” anything, but merely turning areas over to the Army. What is it that you want exactly? The government basically declared war on the Resistance, based on orders from the US, and their militias started shooting at people when they went out into the street. The fact that they didn’t expect this response isn’t our problem. I think they desperately needed a slap in the face in order to be able to move on.

And please stop pretending like the US has no link to this governing group. Do you seriously believe that the US would back Sanioura so forcefully if they weren’t getting anything in return? Do you think they do it for the “blackness of Sanioura’s eyes?” The government is clearly employing an American agenda. They had no reason to make issue of the communications network of HA as we all know that this network has been there since the 1990’s and is extremely important for the effectiveness of the Resistance. What do you suppose it means when the government declares this network illegal? If you take away the network, you are exposing the leadership of the Resistance. The government knows this. And we all know that the government would not have taken this decision were it not following orders from the US.

QN,

Do you in all seriousness believe that the people accusing HA of building a state within a state have any interest in building a true state? Their history shows that they have never shown anything but utter contempt for the state of Lebanon and for the building of any state institutions. The issue of HA and the network is clearly part of an agenda and has nothing to do with protection and/or preservation of the Lebanese state. They crossed a line and they have to take responsibility for the consequences.

مراسل الجزيرة: احتراق مبنى تلفزيون المستقبل في الروشة

What’s needed is an orator to match Nasrallah and promote true understanding and compromise. Look to history for examples:
Last paragraph in http://www.classicpersuasion.org/pw/thucydides/thucydides-passages.php?pleaseget=4.59-64
(Thucydides – History of the Peloponnesian War)

(4.64) ‘As I said at first, I am the representative of a great city which is more likely to act on the aggressive than on the defensive; and yet with the prospect of these dangers before me I am willing to come to terms, and not to injure my enemies in such a way that I shall doubly injure myself. Nor am I so obstinate and foolish as to imagine that, because I am master of my own will, I can control fortune, of whom I am not master; but I am disposed to make reasonable concessions. And I would ask the other Sicilians to do the same of their own accord, and not to wait until the enemy compels them. There is no disgrace in kinsmen yielding to kinsmen, whether Dorians to Dorians, or Chalcidians to the other Ionians. Let us remember too that we are all neighbours, inhabitants of one island home, and called by the common name of Sicilians. When we see occasion we will fight among ourselves, and will negotiate and come to terms among ourselves. But we shall always, if we are wise, unite as one man against the invader; for when a single state suffers, all are imperilled. We will never again introduce allies from abroad, no, nor pretended mediators. This policy will immediately secure to Sicily two great blessings; she will get rid of the Athenians, and of civil war. And for the future we shall keep the island free and our own, and none will be tempted to attack us.’

Nour, so… the opposition can do no wrong and the government and the majority can do no right?
All evil is coming from the US imposing its interests?

I think that the Lebanese are tired of the stalemate and are looking for stability and an end to the bickering , No matter who is in charge.

HP,

The opposition was never trying to eliminate the governing coalition. They were trying to merely have a say in the government. On the other hand, the governing coalition was trying to eliminate the Resistance. And they weren’t doing that on their own volition.

HP,

You know that those same people in government today were puppets of Syria when Syria was in Lebanon. So why do you find it so difficult to believe that they would be puppets of the US this time around? A puppet is always a puppet and a slave is always a slave.

Norman, you speak words of wisdom and truth. I do know this to be the fact with anyone I know in Lebanon.

Nour

I agree with you. Nasrallah is a wanted dead by the US and Israel. Instead of increasing his chances of protection, this government invokes ‘economical’ loss of telephone revenues and takes unilateral decisions of firing a man known to be close to Hezbollah. And this at a time where there is a political deadlock and tension is high. It was unmistakebly a pure provocation in the hope Hezbollah reactions will discredit them in the eyes of the population and turn the political situation in favor for the 14marc group.. We have seen mini Hariri immediately proposing for the nth time the election of Michel Sleiman without any political concession. They thought they can outsmart the Hezbollah by these gimmicks? They really underevaluate Hezbollah smartness as well as their allies political smartness.
The trouble is that ultimately it is the normal lebanese who suffers. It’s been a long time Siniora should have resigned. I hope this time he will and leave his place to a stronger man like Mikati who would be less dependent on the dangerous crimimals presently in the lebanese government.

Nour, I do understand your arguments and do know that they are widely shared not only on SC but also in Lebanon, including among my relatives. The difficulty I have is in believing that US strategies and tactics have anything to do with the specific actions taken by the “majority” or the government. As I said before, my reading of US positions is that they are reactive and supportive; they are not proactive.

As far as “elimination” of the resistance, there is clearly a consensus among all Lebanese – except the Hizb members – that the weapons of the resistance are no longer justified as a standalone force without the control of a strong central government. At the same time everyone knows that the Hizb finds comfort in these weapons and is indeed paranoid about an Israeli aggression that would target its leaders. At some point, they have to move beyond this stage and onto functioning within a regular democracy where the government controls all military forces.

The SSNP supporters burned the Future TV old building not Hizbullah and Amal

And MP Hassan Fadlalaeh of the HA block has expressed hope that Future TV ( from the other building) would start broadcasting “immediately” again. In other words: Message delivered successfuly, now you can brodcast again.

Now, Let us see what Ja’ja, the Lion of Mia’rab -and Sabra and Chatila- will come up with after the end of the ongoing meeting of the remenants of Feb 14.

HP:
“As far as “elimination” of the resistance”…blah, blah, blah..

don’t you wish!
Still ??!!

Any candidates you propose to carry out this task; eliminating the resistance??

HP

“..indeed paranoid about an Israeli aggression that would target its leaders”

PARANOID!!!!!! you forget that Mughniyeh was killed a few months ago and that Israel wants to kill Nasrallah! You are paranoid to think that Israel is a peace loving country and is not trying to defeat the resistance at any cost… You are paranoid to think that the US interest in the region is simply the protection of Lebanon and the growth of a democracies in the region. Wake up!

Why-Discuss, if Israel attempts to or succeeds in assassinating Nasrallah you will see all Lebanese – with no exception, including expatriates like me – rise up to ensure appropriate punishment where it hurts for Israel: in effective diplomatic maneuvering to discredit a lot of its claims in the U.S.
I have always spoken against political assassinations by Israel. In the Mughnieh case isn’t it fair to wait until some kind of evidence points conclusively to Israel?
As far as US interest in Lebanon specifically, why is it wrong to see that a strong democratic Lebanon with a strong central government is, in itself, in the interest of the US ? Siniora has stated that Lebanon will be the last to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The US cannot change that dynamic. A purely political HA will be in the best interest of all. Except maybe Damascus. That’s where I look to find interests conflicting with those of the Lebanese.

… and, as far as assassinations, who do you think is responsible for those of Hariri, Kassir, Tueini, Gemayel, and the many others? Isn’t everyone entitled to protection?

As General Aoun said today, this is a victory for all of Lebanon, and not for one side over the other. It was basically a legitimate/justified military takeover by the president-in-waiting, General Suleiman, assisted by HA and the opposition, but made to look the other way around for political expedience and future reconciliation. Similar to the requests that have been voiced for the declaration of martial law, but done in that wonderful Lebanese way…!

The Lebanese I heard from today are glad for any break in the stalemate and gridlock, and are quite relieved that the violence was so controlled and limited… Don’t forget that a major calamity (including another Israeli/American war) had already been factored into Lebanese minds for this summer, hence the present relief at the relatively benign unfolding of events so far… ! Things could have been, and still can get, much worse…!

“A purely political HA will be in the best interest of all.”

Israel Defence Forces included???

HP,

The downside is that you gotta wait quite a while to see this becoming a reality. The upside for you on the other hand, is that Patience is a good virtu.. keep waiting..

On another relevant matter, would the Future TV, oooops .. sorry would the LBC brodcast Star Accademy tonite? They are getting close to the finals!

One thing is certain, if war does break out, and hopefully not. The question is how many Libnani that hate Syria, will flock there like ants at a picnic, when war does break out. In 2006 I felt bad for them, but for most while in safety in Syria, they stuck there snobby noses in the air, and blamed syria for everything that was happening in there [DELETED BY ADMIN] country. Not thinking of the average poor Syrian that doesn’t live the lavish lifestyle of a Libnani, how there lives were impacted, by the flooding of refugees from the west and now to the east. If any of you fit this discription, don’t go to Syria for protection this time around, go to your friends the Isreali.

Ausamaa, are the HA military forces going to liberate Palestine? the Golan Heights? or is it the Shebaa Farms? Oh, I forget, the latter is tied up with Syrian refusal to make a formal acknowledgment that they are Lebanese.
The HA military forces and its operation as an independent state-within-a-state wreaked havoc on Lebanon during the summer of 2006, notwithstanding HA’s declaration of the “Divine” victory. It is the blind Arabic hot-headedness all over again. It is what caused the defeat of 1967. Today, true struggle and triumph are achieved through politics and economics. Let us become a superior force from within the US, have a pan-Arab Political Action Committee in the US, triumph by persuasion and by influencing US policy. Demonstrate by example the power of coexistence in Lebanon in a truly democratic state and, by so doing, then attack the policies of Israel as a country that discriminates against its non-Jewish citizen. Until we operate effectively without the failed techniques used until now, we are bound to perpetuate the losing streak against Israel and lend justification to all their claims.

It would be easy for me to agree with you and join the majority SC chorus. I guess it would make me popular here. But I just see things differently. You’re right about patience. Time will tell who’s right about the rest.

Honest Patriot,

With all we know about the way the Isrealis conduct forein policy, with targeted assassinatons overtly, why can’t the Isrealis be prime suspects in the Libnan political murders? How many car bombs went off during the civil war that the mossad was involved in? I’m proud to be a Arab, and more importantly a Syrian, but there is no way the Syrian intel killed Hariri, because they do not have those kinds of big brains and technology (satelite tracking) like the Isrealies do. It actually makes sense, for the Isreali, they know Syria would get blamed anyway.

HP,

Come on man, it is enough to have one Walid Junblat, we dont need another one.

Do you rally think Hizbullah’s aim is to establish Wilayat Al Faqeeh and turn Lebanon into an Iranian Island? Are Aoun and Franjieh and Karami and Wakeem and Al Huss stupid enough to not to understand what Hizbullah aims are, and are providing cover for him?

Come on man…

This is totally unacceptable behave form both the oppositional side and the ruling party…. Nssralla has vindicated the ruling party fears of “HizbAllah” intention..” Big mistake”.. Not a wise move and short sighted gain ..it will not last…..

It looks like Hezbollah used Shock and ow, to control the capital,
It is time to dissolve the government elect Suleiman as president who will appoint a new temporary government to take care of new election law planned on resemble the US one to have a new election within 6 months after that for a new parliament that will establish a new constitution that will have two equal houses , house of representative which proportional to number of people ,
I would use an American university political science department to create districts for election, and a senate composed of senators from each county or Dahia., laws has to pass both houses and needs 60% to override a presidential veto , elections will be done like in the US with primary to elect the nominees and general election to elect the representatives , senators and the president. term limits for the presidency so everybody will have a chance one day.

No set aside or quotas.

Ausamaa, by the same token I should ask you if you really think that Siniora and Junblat are American agents ?

HP,

YES. YES, YES. Of course.

Y E S, in capital letters.

By their admission also.

And if in doubt, ask Condi and Abrams.

HP, sorry to chime in as I know you Lebanese brothers are not feeling particularly great today. But Junblat is indeed an American agent.

Well, agent is quite a relative word. so let’s just say that he’s coordinates with the american before any move. he met david welch couple of days ago. You think there is no connection between what discussions they had and the government’s decision to dismantle the Hezb’s network?

if i am a Lebanese today; I wouldn’t feel sad today. Neither I would feel happy. Maybe a bit optimistic.

HP,
The bottom line is simple, and I have learned to live with it many years ago:
Fighting Israel and the US is more important than implementing democracy or the welfare of Arabs. And, it is ok if Arabs suffer a lot for the sake of hurting an Israeli or US fingernail.

The Lebanese have to sacrifice for the struggle with the US and Israel. Get with the program.

HP (And QN)

You both have every right to be disappointed today and you have every right to worry if Hizbollah intends to abuse its clear military superiority in Lebanon in a way that might threaten Lebanon’s difficult balance of power.

I am not very worried about the risk of Nasrallah’ feeling now that he is God. Remember that he was credited for forcing Israel to withdraw from its long occupation of Lebanon in year 2000 and he did not declare himself the president of Lebanon or anything like that. I expect him and other opposition leaders to make sure they balance theri “victory” this week by making sure they do not capitalize on it in an alarming way.

I said yesterday (previous thread) that I think that those who targeted Al-Mustaqbal TV and newspapers (the SSNP?) made a mistake. I have no respect for those losers who distorted the news everyday, but there are many Lebanese who love them and trust them for now. Same way NBN is allowed to report things in its biased direction, Al-Mustaqbal should also be allowed to do the same.

But I am not disappointed, YET, in the general outcome so far.

These are the things that I would like to see in Lebanon and please tell me how many of them seem to be more likely after what happened today, and how many of them are against the national interest of Lebanon

1) Electing General Sleiman as president

2) agreeing to manage for this year (until next year’s elections) to govern Lebanon through a national unity government that roughly reflects the 55/45 % representation of the M14/opposition shares in Parliament.

3) STOPPING both the M14 aggressive attacks on Syria and Iran AND the opposition’s calling M14 parties American and Israelis agents.

4) Removing the tents from downtown Beirut.

From As’ad Abu Khalil blog:

I received word that Fu’ad Sanyurah (the same “democratically-elected” Sanyurah) may resign tonight.

QN (and Honest cousine),

Basically, what will happen now, General Suleiman finally in power and elections according to the Boutrous proposals (or close) [along with removing the tents and a return to some normalcy], is what you have been advocating for all along… So why are you upset…??!! …just because it did not happen the way you expected and not by the people you expected…??! Some of us trusted the opposition side to accomplish what everybody professed to want, and we are being proven right… so far…!

I am for Seniora’s resignation and his replacement with Salim Hoss who is respected by almost all the Lebanese people as well as internationally.

He was not democratically elected .. he was appointed by Saad Hariri and the Saudi regime. But that’s how most other Lebanese prime ministers were appointed in the past few decades .. through agreements between a combination of Syria and Saudi Arabia and France and the United States.

Having said that, I understand how popular Seniora is with many Lebanese. So, I don’t necessarily find it impossible to ask him again to form the next national coalition government.

If news of his resignation are true, I suspect that the Saudis are planning to capitalize on what happened by portraying it clearly as a “coup d’etat by Hizbollah”

Egypt and Saudi Arabia called for a meeting of Arab foreign ministers. Whenever these two are very enthusiastic, we know what to expect.

If outsiders did not interfere in what is happening in Lebanon, today we would be much closer to a reasonable solution to the deadlock of the past year. But outsiders do interfere .. and depending to what extent they will interfere, we will have to wait and see how smooth or how difficult the next few weeks and months will be.

Alex, I don’t know what is likely to happen but I can tell you what would be best to happen, and that is items (1), (3), and (4). Instead of your (2), I think it may be best to have a neutral military government to carry ordinary government business and to insitute, in joint working with the parliament, a new more equitable electoral law, until the spring 2009 elections, after which a regular government would be formed based on who is in the majority. That may be wishful thinking but it would be best for the country.

Another Israeli Guy

I was hopping that you are not going to stick your nose in here today. Aren’t you supposed to be celebrating somewhere?

The M14 block should have accepted that before they tried to paralyze Hezbollah to become a target for Israel. they chose Israel and the US to Lebanon and the resistant , today is a different day , Lebanon needs direction but with the loyalist and the opposition pulling to different direction Lebanon is being fragmented, I know that Syria’s position is no winners and no losers , i think that plan does not work and Lebanon needs Hezbollah and Krami, Aoun , and Arselan to Winn and plan a decent future for Lebanon and open the way for the other camp to compete.

Fatfat is also saying that the Resignation of the Siniora government is a possibility if a solution can be worked out.

But things are not clear. A lot of what we see on the tickers can be rumers, feelers, test baloons or what have you…

However, the signal would come from the outside. And should come quickly at least to save face for Bush and Saudi. They could say that they, or Harriri and Junblat “did it” in the heat of the moment “to save” Lebanon from destruction and that they went along with it. If they wait longer and things calm down totaly and the Opposition consolidate its position further, they will then have to stand soon next to Waleed Al Mualim in front of the cameras and announce a compromise reflecting and exposing their real position that they had no option but to give in to the Opposition and Syria.

Whatever the outcome is going to be, I like to see two things
1) the elimination of Walid Junblat, as he was the FITNA
instigator, by that Hariri must abandone him politicaly.
2) Israel must end up losing,not gaining, by that I mean that
Hasan Nasrallah makes considerable gains.

Norman,

I disagree. The opposition has to go out of its way to make sure they don’t give the impression that they defeated M14.

I think M14 represents 40 to 50 % of Lebanon … they can not be subdued by force.

Only a national unity government can work.

One tactic (strategy?) the M14 and Saudis and Americans can try is to refuse to participate in a national Unity government and to make life miserable for whoever wants to be the new prime minister … Salim Hoss or Karami for example… just like Fatah did to Hamas.

I personally know of how some Fatah employees in some ministries made sure the new Hamas appointed minister failed in everything he tried to do.

When a country is split, no one can govern it successfully.

http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/WORLD/meast/05/09/beirut.violence/art.gunman.gi.jpg

Assad is back !!!

Alex ,
After 25 years of no winners or losers , Lebanon is back to war,

Hezbollah and his supporters should win but be generous and humble with the others and give way for them to participate in the system.

Norman; from what I’ve seen on TV and read on the various websites; Hezbollah’s fighters were very disciplined and human.

To Ausamaa, Nour, Why-Discuss, etc.

Your reading of the events is extremely biased and closed-minded.

If I had one tenth of the level of cynicism for Syria/Iran that you have for the United States, and one tenth of the level of triumphalist naivety for March 14 that you have for March 8, I would propose the following reading:

“Hizbullah is a terrorist organization funded by the dictatorship of Syria and the Islamic fundamentalist regime in Iran, whose only goal is to do their bidding and transform Lebanon into a proxy state for their interests.”

This is exactly the way that you read the situation in Lebanon, but of course you direct your ire towards March 14, transforming everything into a justified clash with the Great Satan, namely the U.S. Do you realize the level of intellectual cover that you give for zealots and dictatorial murderers with every word you type?

Your triumphalist readings are non-starters, especially on a blog where people are trying to debate things open-mindedly. You may as well be on the front lines, urging the “freedom fighters” onward with the assurances that they are doing God’s work.

This is completely shameful.

QN,
do not get upset , things were going nowhere , I hope now things can get better.

QN,
I don’t know if I am included in the “etc”, but I’d appreciate it if you could tell me what is wrong with anything I said above…!! I also think that Aussama, et al, are fully aware that there is definitely an internal struggle between two genuinely Lebanese parties, each with their external backers/allies, and Aussama et al cheer for one backer/ally over the other… what is wrong with that…?!

Also,
Naji said:
QN (and Honest cousine),
Basically what will happen now, General Suleiman finally in power and elections according to the Boutrous proposals (or close) [along with removing the tents and a return to some normalcy], is what you have been advocating for all along… So why are you upset…??!! …just because it did not happen the way you expected and not by the people you expected…??! Some of us trusted the opposition side to accomplish what everybody professed to want, and we are being proven right… so far…!
May 9th, 2008, 3:22 pm

Naji

I responded to you and Alex on the other page.

It is time to dissolve the government elect Suleiman as president

The Lebanese Constitution prohibits the head of the Army from serving as President (obviously, there is an historical reason for that) and there is no way the Constitution can be amended to permit it without the assent of Opposition.

Essentially, the Shia-dominated army has rebelled, refusing the order of the Central Government. The airport officer who had been cashiered for permitting a Hezbollah camera on Runway 12 has been reinstated. (Anyone know what is so special about Runway 12?)