Joshua

Its time for your weekly response from Qifa Nabki. 😉

On the one hand, there’s no question that Syria has scored big.

On the other, it is simply inconceivable that this turnaround could have come about because Sarko woke up one morning and decided that he really fancied a trip to Damascus for some delicious Syrian coffee with cardamom.

We haven’t seen the concessions yet, but does this mean that there will be no concessions at all in the near future? At some point, the rubber is going to have to hit the road.

What do you think the French (NOT the Americans) are looking for from Syria? I mean in terms of concrete actions, not vague and qualified assurances about working for productive relations in the Middle East and stability, etc.

Or do you think that France is basically pursuing a more “soft power” approach with respect to Syria?

Qifa,

Until Joshua writes a proper answer to your questions, I would say that France is simply filling tha gap for now … we have a peace process that is advancing very smoothly … but America is not ready to sponsor it … not for another 6 months.

Sarkozy is filling the time gap … he knows, and Assad said it, that the Americans are supposed to take over.

As for concessions … Syrians never deviated from their “solution based on UN resolutions”.
Military cooperation with Iran will probably stop in few years, and Hizbollah will turn into a political organization. That’s it.

By the way, did you notice this part of the story b Zvi Bar’el? 😉

A short time later one of them “with all due respect” asked the reporter to leave. “This is only for Syrian journalists,” he said. To the retort that Lebanese journalists were present, he responded: “Syria and Lebanon are one country.”

hehehe.

In my opinion the so called interaction with Syria is just to make sure that it sits on the sidelines when Iran is attacked. I think Asad is very happy to have his hands tied.

Just like the (non) sale of Syriatel was an indication of how well the American sanctions are working, the purchasing of the Air Bus planes will be a concrete indicator of the isolation of Syria. Let’ see if Germany and France actually agree to sell them the planes. That would be a strong indication, not the photo-ops.

AIG: Interesting analysis. You may be right.

“From the Syrian [and France?- divide and rule] perspective”:

“France clears Syria of 1983 attack on its troops”

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=250713

In my view, one of Sarkozy’s aim is use Syria as a go between with Iran and Iraq for grabbing new businesses.
The US is under the illusion that the Iraqis will be forever grateful for removing Saddam. They don’t know well the iraqis… If the US are opportunistic, the Iraqis are too. We can already see Iraqi showing their teeth and standing firm on the issue if the withdrawal timetable The US is shocked by such ingratitude.. and this is only the beginning.
Syria has accepted millions of Iraqi refugees while the US was looking on the other side. That is something the Iraqis cannot forget. They got no harm from Syria, only benefits, even during the Saddam period when the West was shamelessly flirting with the dictator. This is why I think Syria is very well placed to play the intermediary to re-introduce France businesses in Iraq.
Syria’s relationship with Iran may also offer some business opportunities unless the Syria-Israel peace process is done at the expenses of Hezbollah and the palestinians. Bashar is smart enough not to do that ( like Mobarak selfishly did and became a US puppet) As for Iran, Syria is the only arab country who has been Iran’s long time friend. They would not renounce to that friendship so easily, even if there is peace deal.
“Assad said he would also help mediate with Syria’s ally, in response to a request from French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

“We are going to have discussions with our Iranian friends to get to the heart of the matter, to the details. This is the first time that we had been asked to play a role,” Assad said.”

Sarkozy has given his OK to the US administration on some symbolic issues ( Nato etc..) but he is also working for the economical interests of his country. Iran and Iraq are power houses of business opportunities and now the obvious door is Syria.

Monday, Jul. 14, 2008
The Syrians Take Paris
By Andrew Lee Butters/Damascus
TIME Magazine

For the head of state of a former French colony, an official visit to Paris is always a good chance do a little shopping, take in some culture, and impress the folks back home. So it was for Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria (which was once ruled by France under a League of Nations Mandate). Over the past weekend, Syrian state television has been beaming round-the-clock images of the Syrian President and his tres chic First Lady making the scene in the City of Light: Bashar at a summit for Mediterranean leaders, Asma at the Louvre and Centre Pompidou, and both of them as official guests of French President Nicholas Sarkozy at Bastille Day celebrations on Monday. From all the high wattage smiles, it’s clear they’re having a blast.

And well they should. Not so long ago the Syrian First couple were personae non gratae in Western capitals. The U.S., which accuses Syria of sponsoring terrorism, led an effort to isolate the country diplomatically and economically. And in a rare instance of Franco-American harmony, France had its own grudge against Syria: the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hiriri, the former Lebanese prime minister and close friend of former French President Jacques Chirac, an act for which many in the West blamed Syria.

But now Syria is back in style. The invitation to Paris is ostensibly a reward for the the start of indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel (through Turkish mediation.) But it’s also recognition that attempts to isolate Syria have failed, and that the West needs Syrian help for resolving some of the biggest problems in the Middle East. For its part, Syria wants to come even further out of the cold. While in Paris, President Assad told French television that in the event of direct talks under American sponsorship, there could be peace between Syria and Israel within two years. So on the Fourth of July 2010, will Bashar be celebrating Independence Day in Washington?

Maybe, but maybe not. Of all the Middle Eastern conflicts, the rift between Israel and Syria would appear to be the easiest to mend. Israel would just have to return the Golan Heights, a rocky Syrian plateau that Israel captured in 1967. If Israel had a strong leader with a popular mandate (admittedly a big if) this wouldn’t be impossible given that Israeli settlement in the Golan is relatively sparse and the Heights are no longer so strategically important thanks to advances in Israeli defense technology. But the tougher question is what Israel should get in return for the Golan.

Israel and the U.S. want more than just an end to a state of war between Syria and Israel. They also wants Syria to stop supporting anti-Israeli militant groups in Palestine and Lebanon (Hamas and Hizballah respectively.) In other words, they want Syria to break away from its strategic partnership with Iran, the senior member of what’s sometimes referred to as the Rejectionist Crescent, the arc of governments and militias stretching from Tehran to Gaza that oppose American and Israeli dominance in the Middle East.

But Syria isn’t going to abandon Iran, according to figures close to the Assad regime here in Damascus. It’s not just that the elite of Iran and Syria have a long history of cooperation going back to 1979, when Syria was the first country to recognize the newly established Islamic Republic of Iran. It’s also because Syria has no reason to switch sides just when its team is winning. From the fiasco of America’s invasion of Iraq, to Hamas’s victory in Gaza and Hizballah’s victory in Lebanon, Iranian and Syrian power is on the rise in the Middle East. Defying America and Israel is the most popular position in most of the Arab world, and has helped keep the Assad regime in power all these years. Why change now?

Assad only wants a package deal, a grand bargain between Syria and Iran on the one hand, and American and Israel on the other, that would settle the cold war for the Middle East. This means that the United States would have to give up once and for all its project for a “new” Middle East, and its penchant for regime change. That might happen on its own in November if Barack Obama becomes president. But a package deal would also have to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, map out the future of post-American Iraq, solve the Syrian-Israeli conflict, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict all in one go. Would any American President, or any world leader, be able to pull that off in two years? Despite President Assad’s rosy prediction, it’s hard to imagine him shaking hands in the Rose Garden anytime soon. But at least he’ll always have Paris.

From http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/07/14/bastille-day.html:

Monday’s official festivities also underscored France’s recent efforts to improve relations with Mideast nations and bolster ongoing peace negotiations.

The leaders had stayed over following a summit Sunday that launched an unprecedented Union for the Mediterranean, a brainchild of Sarkozy’s aimed at securing peace across the restive region.

Onstage, Assad turned away to speak to his interpreter when the Israeli leader approached him.

Israel and Syria, who technically have remained in a state of war with each other since the Six-Day War in 1967, have been holding peace talks in recent weeks with Turkey serving as an intermediary.

Assad’s presence sparks furor
Assad’s back-to-back invitations from Sarkozy to the summit and the parade appear to have marked an end to Syria’s diplomatic isolation in France.

But many in France are outraged that Assad — who stands accused of trampling human rights in his own country and facilitating violence and chaos in neighbouring Lebanon, a French ally — was invited to Bastille Day festivities.

Among them are groups representing France’s veterans, who hold Syria responsible for the deaths of 58 French paratroopers in a 1983 bomb attack on a Beirut barracks housing peacekeepers.

Assad receives few invitations from the West, where the British-educated former eye surgeon is viewed as a pariah allied with Iran and a supporter of militant groups including Hamas and Hezbollah.

Syria is also accused of involvement in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon, where disputes in Parliament between pro-Syrian politicians and the Western-backed government often threaten to spill out into violence in the streets.

Former French president Jacques Chirac — a close friend of Hariri’s — bitterly condemned the welcome offered by Sarkozy, while the French opposition decried the inclusion of a dictator at a celebration of human rights.