According to Hizbollah’s website, the high ranking leader in the party Imad Mughaniyah was assassinated in the explosion of yesterday. He’s also on the most-watned list of the CIA with 25 million dollar bounty for his head.

I think he’s a Lebanese of Palestinian origin, I am not sure though….

That could not have come at a less appopriate time for Bashar. On the one hand, it proves his security sucks, and on the other hand, it proves that internationally wanted bad guys like Mughniyyeh are given respite in Damascus despite a myriad public promises to the contrary. Also, Hizbullah is badly tied-up by the situation in Lebanon if they want to respond, and the situation on the border post-2006 makes it hard for them — plus, Syria is presumably not keen on poking the bear. Especially not while pieces of Mughniyyeh are still being scraped off the walls in Kfar Soussa, and with Israeli troop buildups on the Golan ready to roll at the slightest provocation.

Gotta hand it to Israel: they’re good at this.

Dear Josh,

Imad Mughniyeh – that’s big. And if someone can kill such a highly secretive person in Damascus … I’m expecting loads of conspiracy theories to follow on this & other threads.

–MSK*

What’s happened is very imporant and can’t be underestimated. Yes, Israel has sent a message with this assassination, but if it thinks it can withstand the repercussions then it is mistaken. Hezbullah is just as “good” at this as Israel and the overrated Mossad and I expect a very swift response.

Perfect timing. Hizbullah will be forced to react, giving Israel in turn an excuse to retaliate. At the same time, M14 leaders have declared in unison that “we will not stay hands tied”.

Remember the article by Seymour Hersh in which he quoted a “Pentagon adviser” who told him that “Israel and the new Lebanese government will finish them off (them = Hizbullah; t_d).”

That is what they want. They are pushing Lebanon to the brink. We can only hope that Lebanese leaders are wise enough to avoid a civil war.

Dear T_Desco,

What if it wasn’t Israel?

–MSK*

PS: I wouldn’t take things that the Pentagon says as 100% reliable. “Pentagon advisers” also predicted all sorts of fab things about the Iraq invasion etc. Anyone thinking that “Israel and the new Lebanese government will finish them off” is about as naive as those who in 1982 thought that allying Israel with Bashir Gemayel was a bright idea and would “finish off” the Muslim militias & their Syrian allies.

And predictably …

http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/02/13/imad-mugniyah-snuffed-an-analysis/

Excerpt:

“But should we totally dismiss conspiratorial thinking? After all, this is Syria, with its famously draconian security apparatus. Could such a significant killing happen on its turf without the regime’s knowledge? Could it be that Syria is sending Mr. Obama a peace offering that precedes Mr. Brzezinsky’s visit to embarrass Mr. Bush?

What about Lebanon? Mr. Walid Jumblat said yesterday that the Lebanese could “no longer coexist with Hezbollah”, and alluded to a Hezbollah role in Killing captain wissam Eid. Did Mr. Jumblat know something we didn’t know? And finally, is it a coincidence that Hezbollah will hold a funeral for Mr. Mughniya at the same day that March 14 is planning to demonstrate en mass?”

Discuss amongst yourselves.

–MSK*

The positive note here is that no innocents were killed.

M8’s hands are tied, retaliation by Hassan & Co. could put strain on their alliance with General Aoun whose Maronite backers are not interested in war and martyrdom like Hassan & Co.

If the General follows Hassan into the abyss the Maronites will turn to the Phalange and the Forces further weakening the FPM.

As for M14, their supporters are not going to tolerate the Hizb dragging Lebanon into another war.

This move was well timed and cleanly executed.

Amusingly, people think that if this thing happened in Damascus then Bashar’s security sucks.

Oh, really?

I need not to mention that the most powerful and multi-complex security system in the world has failed to prevent events as big as Sep. 11:

-Federal Bureau of Investigation.
-Central Intelligence Agency.
-The Secret Service.
-Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency.
-Army Intelligence
-Marine Corps Intelligence Activity
-National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA)
-National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)
-National Security Agency (NSA)
-Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)
-Coast Guard Intelligence
-Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)

Bashar doesn’t even have the proportionate half of this…

The positive note here is that no innocents were killed.

How do you know that, oh aussie Lebanese? is it the crystal ball or March the 14th demagosim?

It’d be interesting if it were found that the methodology used in this explosion matches that of the explosions that have been happening in Lebanon.

Someone is really desperate to up the ante…

…more dangerous is that Israel has denied responsibility for the assasination …What if Bush claims next another victory in his war on terror …the elimination of a BinLaden-weight terrorist (USD 25 million on the FBI list !) …found in DAMASCUS …!!??

What of the fact that nobody has mentioned Moghniyeh since 1996 (not even in Israel, according to Jazeera!) until Jumblatt mentioned him in one his more violent tirades a couple of dayes ago…!!???

Dear (instantly)Offended,

If the news services all say that one person was killed & that this one person was Imad Mughniyah, then it should be reasonable to deduce that no innocents were killed, no?

And as for your comparison with 9/11 – the US is nowhere as tightly controlled as Syria, and especially Damascus. Do feel free to ask people who visit both places and have them compare it. And 9/11 was against civilians, not against someone comparable to Imad Mughniyah’s status in the U.S. Try killing the head of the CIA …

In any case, all that people like Alle are saying is that if someone can blow up Imad Mughniyah, who is one of the most-protected people in the region, in Damascus then Syria’s security services have a serious problem.

–MSK*

T_Desco,

I think you are right.

This may also be the work of the same al-Qaeda type elements that have built up such an impressive network in Lebanon… trying to provoke a response by Hizbullah, retaliation by Israel, etc.

Much will depend (in Lebanon) on the response of the M14 leaders today and at the rally tomorrow.

If they are stupid enough to ignore the bombing, or to not condemn it in no uncertain terms, then this will be easy to paint as outright collaboration on their parts, even if only through silence. The majority should speak out against the bombing, Hariri should call Nasrallah, etc., if only for the appearance of national unity

Dear QN & T_Desco-

Assuming it was the Israelis (& of course they most likely are the ones who did it), it might not have been “timed” to coincide with any other event – Feb 14 in Lebanon or “a message to Iran” – but simply been an opportunity.

Think about it this way: You are hunting a person, trying to capture or eliminate him. You’ve been trying for years, if not decades, always missed. And now you have an opportunity, one that may not come again for a long time. You take it, without thinking about how that may or may not be interpreted. And you do it mainly because if you don’t, and it will be become public that you could’ve taken him out but chose not to – for political reasons -, then you have serious problems at home.

The Israelis never cared what negative consequences their assassinations may have caused. Neither did most other groups.

In any case, let’s hope that this assassination won’t affect tomorrow’s commemoration/demonstration in Beirut. We’ve already had clashes between Sunni & Shi’ite youth last night …

–MSK*

MSK — Thanks, exactly. Things like these sort of highlight the problem with Syria’s over-emphasis on security: that it doesn’t secure anything, it’s only a cover for sucking the country dry. The intelligence services can’t protect one of the region’s top assassination targets when he lives undercover in their own capital, but you bet they’ve forced some baksheesh off every single store along the road where he was killed.

I’ve spoken to people close to the opposition in Beirut, and many are also very worried (if not paranoid) that this may have been carried out by the Syrians.

They put it as follows: if it was the Americans, that’s ok because they’ve been after him for a long time. If it was the Israelis, that is very bad (because of all the reasons mentioned above). The worst scenario is that if Syria took him out, as part of a deal with the Americans. With a prize like Mughniya, it would have to be a pretty big carrot for Syria, like another major concession by M14, veto to the opposition, etc.

Yes, this dead terrorist is another example of the “huge price” the Syrian people have had to endure. And for a “hundred years”…

The Israelis never cared what negative consequences their assassinations may have caused. Neither did most other groups.

MSK –

How are you so sure Israeli assassinations haven’t had a positive consequence? I believe the Hamas leadership is now totally in hiding like their sages Osama and Nasrallah.

If this was a signal sent by Syria, which is pretty shaky as a theory, it would have to be a first step to show they’re serious, not the whole deal. Imad Mughniyyeh was important, but hardly important enough for the US to hand over Lebanon on a platter, and Syria wouldn’t risk its relations with Iran and Hizbullah for a minor concession here or there. Both the US and Syria are looking for a larger, comprehensive deal that will allow them to draw a new division of power — not just to hand over a few dead bodies, shake hands, and continue the wrestling match.

On the other hand, I can very well imagine there are people who would see some sort of symmetry in Mughniyyeh’s death and the Hariri trial…

Dear QN-

The Americans have wanted him, but as he isn’t on their “active enemies” list – he’s not part of al-Qa’ida, he’s not fighting the US anywhere – I doubt they’d be be going after him with a car bomb. They haven’t tried to go after any HA people ever since the 80s.

The Israelis definitively want vengeance and “targeted assassinations” are part of their M.O. Taking out Imad Mughniyah would give the Israeli leadership loads of bonus points with the Israeli public – he’s been one of the “demons” ever since the 1980s – and at the same time signal to the region “We can get anyone, anywhere.” If he wasn’t safe in Damascus, who IS safe & where?

As for other groups … the possibilities are endless. Maybe he fell out with some people in Hisbollah, maybe they’re having internal differences about where HA should go & he became too radical or some thought he’d become a liability or maybe he wanted to convince the Iranians to force HA to go a course the others in HA don’t want to go … or maybe he’d fallen out with some in the Syrian regime … or maybe he’d had an affair with someone’s wife … or maybe he owed money …

Let’s just wait for Sy Hersh to tell us the “objective truth” in his next article. Maybe this time he’ll even include one of Alex’ probability numbers … 😉

–MSK*

OKAY, a question to the conspiracy theorists here suggesting that Mughneyyieh’s ‘head on a platter’ was part of a deal between Syria and the US; how could the US verify that he is indeed the one whose body was shattered in the explosion?

AP-

You said “How are you so sure Israeli assassinations haven’t had a positive consequence? I believe the Hamas leadership is now totally in hiding like their sages Osama and Nasrallah.”

Well, my sentence was “The Israelis never cared what negative consequences their assassinations may have caused.”

I didn’t say that there were no positive consequence. I said that the Israelis never cared if there would be negative ones. And I would add that, while there may have been short-term tactical benefits, that long-term, strategically those targeted assassinations have negative consequences.

I would also add that many, if not most, of them caused the death of innocents and that the Israelis didn’t and don’t care about that, which, in my opinion, also caused and causes negative consequences.

Having the Hamas leadership in hiding doesn’t solve the Gaza issue, nor does it stop the Qassam rockets. And in the long-term it’s counterproductive. The more confrontational the sides get, the harder it is to climb down.

You might not care about that but those who’d like to avoid senseless slaughter and a possible major war in the region do.

–MSK*

PS: Next time, before you comment, please be so kind and read what commentators actually wrote.

OFFENDED — OKAY, a question to the conspiracy theorists here suggesting that Mughneyyieh’s ‘head on a platter’ was part of a deal between Syria and the US; how could the US verify that he is indeed the one whose body was shattered in the explosion?

I’m not suggesting it, I’m saying it’s one possible explanation. After Israel and the USA, I think Syria is definitely the most likely perpetrator, followed by Iran, Hizbullah, some Hariri-tied group, or an unconnected personal/criminal dispute.

Now, how to ID him, as if that would be what would stop Syria from ordering a hit… Well, there’s no reason to think he was totally pulverized, and even if so, perhaps someone had DNA from somewhere, or from a relative. But as it happens, reports speak of a body under a white sheet taken from the scene, so I think we can safely assume that they didn’t have to scoop him up in a bucket.

And if all else failed them — well, hey, maybe they have Internet and can read the Hizbullah website.

MSK et al,

I’m not saying I buy the argument, I’m just the messenger, bringing news from the front. I spoke this morning with various people and am relaying the news and mood from Beirut.

The concession from Syria theory is not so plausible to me. It’s not how the Syrians work… unless there have been ongoing talks for several months, which again is very hard to believe. My bet is that it’s an Israeli job. Revenge for 2006, and a clear message to HA, saying: Winograd shminograd… it’s not over yet.

As for Sy Hersh, anyone care to guess what the subject of his next piece is going to be?

MSK,
I agree- the Mugniyah hit restores the deterrence factor a bit, esp after the Winograd report. The gloating of all these military types (Hezb & IDF) is so stupid. Dont these fools realize the value of discretion? Or has the viagra use gotten so out of hand they cant help themselves? (I would doubt that Hezb needs Viagra- only the Israelis- so maybe its Bqaa weed or something).

It was noted a few days ago on this blog that half a doz communications cables were cut to countries all over the ME region (Israel, Lebanon and Iraq were magically spared). Iran was blacked out completely. Not to mention many cell towers in Iraq burned down- necessary steps that presage a military invasion or major ops of some sort. (And the anti-missile warship US just docked at Haifa).

It was then asked if Iran were the target, maynt the casus belli come from Lebanon- and not the Persian Gulf- as most figure? With an ops whose outcome would engender a segueway into Iran attack? If Hezbollah retaliates vs Israel (which is what they hope for), this would qualify exactly. Will Nasrallah be stupid enough to take that bait? Doubtful- as Iran was warned 48 hours ago that this was coming.

Now the stupidity/corruption of Jumblatt & Hariri is another story… But then 52 mill can buy alot of weapons etc for others to kill and die for you.
Maybe it was also to prevent a possible meeting between Brezinski and Mottaki? Implications of an Obama victory dont look so good for the Neocon plans. Obama wants talks with the “rogue states” and the Americans may riot if another major war is started- esp using nukes.

Guess Neocons will have to finish up their schemes before Bush leaves office.

AIG,
Would you like to give some military analysis on all this?

Compelling argument from Adnan Abu Odeh, written up by Rami Khoury in the neo-con rag, The Daily Star. [/sarcasm]

___________________________________________________________________
Dissolve the Palestinian Authority
By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The Annapolis process is moving in slow gear, and on the ground Israelis and Palestinians are back to the routine of daily clashes, the firing of rockets, assassinations and threats of more to come. Few people seem to have any idea about how to break out of this stalemate and move toward a permanent, comprehensive, fair resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

One man who offers some intriguing fresh thinking, though, is Adnan Abu Odeh, a Jordanian-Palestinian who has remained loyal to both sides of his Palestinian and Jordanian identity. Abu Odeh, a former minister, ambassador and chief of the royal court in Jordan, is among the smartest and most insightful analysts in the Arab world. I always make it a point to sound him out when I am in Amman, as I did a few days ago.

Abu Odeh suggests that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should seriously consider unilaterally dissolving the Palestinian Authority, because it no longer serves a useful function for Palestinians, and instead assists Israel in its long-term designs to control Palestinians land.

…

___________________________________________________________________

Finally, everyone’s seen the Obama music video “Yes we can”.

Here’s the McCain version. Hilarious.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gwqEneBKUs

I don’t know who did it but it was not Syria. If Syria were to do it they would kill him in Lebanon. This way they lose face in several different ways:
1) To the West it is clear that they are harboring a world wanted terrorist in Damascus.
2) To the Arabs it raises the suspicion that either the Syrians did it or that their security could be better.

It very well could be the case that Israel was involved. Naturally, Israel would deny any assasination on Syrian soil. This is also a favor to the Syrians in that it doesn’t force them to retaliate. In any case, good riddance and may the end of all the terrorists that are Bashar’s guests in Damascus be similar.

T-

I don’t know what your sources are (you didn’t provide any in your claims previously) but your allegations are wrong.

(1) It was 4 cables, not half a dozen.

(2) Iran was not completely blacked out.

(3) Lebanon experienced major problems as well, just like many Gulf countries & Egypt.

(4) Where did you get the “many cell towers in Iraq burned down” story from?

(5) Who warned Iran 48 hours ago? Please provide a source.

And can you please explain why, in order to attack Iran, Egypt & Lebanon & Qatar & the UAE have to be affected?

Thanks.

Dear QN-

Didn’t imply that you buy the argument and find it interesting that the opposition would say “Hey, if it was the Americans then it’s ok ’cause they’ve been after him for a while.” Today, after the news spread, there was an instant demonstration in the Dahiyeh & tomorrow will be the official funeral. It should’ve been today (24 hour burial rule & all that) but I guess HA decided to bring the body home and, of course, it dovetails nicely with the M14 demonstration.

As for Sy Hersh … tough call. Could be Levant, could be Pakistan, could be something else.

–MSK*

–MSK*

I think I disagree with MSK – although obviously I don’t know – in that I don’t think the timing is accidental. Just after the Winograd report, not long after Nasrallah infuriated the Israelis with his taunts over the soldiers’ remains, just before the March 14 commemoration of Hariri’s death. And Israel confused and outplayed in Gaza too.

Syria did it – this is surely nonsense. Not in this way, in their own capital. If they wanted to give him up they would hand him over in Lebanon, and then make a quiet complaint about his ‘kidnapping’ by whichever intelligence service they handed him to. And as Qifa said, it would only be the start of a bigger realignment.

Why is the serious republican candidate for the US presidency so openly pro-war, given the great unpopularity of the Iraqi campaign? Either the republican party has lost it (possible) or the attack on Iran is still very much on the cards, in which case T’s comment on an attempt to catalyse a chain of responses makes a lot of sense.

MSK,

Broadly speaking, it was 5 cables cut to ME region and 1 more, possibly 2 cut to China (China recently began discussions to have a military base in Iran. They are also causing the US alot of grief over resisting sanctions). The 8 cell towers burnt in Mosul area via CIA-sponsored Voice of Iraq.

Iran was completely cut off- though they quickly relinked via other backups and sattelite borrowing.

Iran warning? No comment, though they were not told it would be Mugniyah.

Dear Qunfuz-

I didn’t say that the timing IS accidental, just that it doesn’t necessarily HAVE to be timed with other developments, i.e. that it COULD very well have been coincidental.

This whole “instant conspiracy” reflex in the region (& here on SC) just bugs me.

Not everything is related to some grand scheme. Sometimes things just happen independent of each other.

Cheers,

–MSK*

I see your point, MSK, although I do think that, as we live in a conspiratorial region, we need to be aware of conspiracy. I don’t think that’s in itself naive, although it often becomes so.

It seems that Israel can work more or less as it wishes in Syria, sadly. Can anyone remember the details of the assassination of, I think, a Jihad Palestinian in Damascus a day or two after a Jihad operation in Israel which the Israelis blamed on Syria? When was that? three and a half years ago?

The number of the cut cables was actually FIVE cables.
However, it seems that Iran may have enjoyed better connectivity during the cut-off time.
For some intriguing conspiracy theories over the cut, read this piece by Justin Raimondo:
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12329

T – on cable-cutting, see this. It convinced me…

AIG – good point about doing it in Lebanon.

About timing, I suppose that to be able to chose your timing, you would have to have pretty much guaranteed access to IM and his car. That would probably point more towards Syria or Hizbullah or something like that (but for them, it’s NOT good timing), or why not some Palestinian group who wants to do a service for Uncle Sam or works for pay. I have a very hard time believing that eg. Mossad could have been watching him in hiding for months on end without doing anything, and then suddenly they decide to strike because yesterday was good timing… they’re good, not gods.

[…] See interesting discussion of who may be behind the murder, here.  […]

Alle,

When was the last time you were in Lebanon? Syria? I was there a few months ago and there was an Israeli (on French passport) there posing as a reporter- going EVERYWHERE shooting photos. Everytime I am in Syria I have also encountered them. Israeli dual-naitonals all over the place.

There are no accidents when it comes to stuff this big. Even non-military actors like the Rockefellers say this. These ops are well-planned in advance (tho they can go wrong like in 1997 w/ Haniya poisoning in Amman). Qatar and other states in region were not targeted when the cables were cut, but were unavoidable collat damage. Before the 1990 invasion the satts were cut to prevent communications into or out of Iraq to provide a space of time for ops to commence. This is routine procedure going back to WW1 and before.

And dont forget- Israel has recently accused Hezb/Iran of supplying Nur missiles to Hamas for attacks from Gaza.

I am confused as to what the difference is between conspiracy theory and figuring stuff out. Isnt any explanation then a ‘conspiracy theory’?

I am with MSK on the issue of conspiracies. To believe that there is a conspiracy on the scale of which some Middle Easterners believe, one must also believe in the existence of some wisdom and intellects in people within any US or Israeli government. They never had either.

At any rate, glad to hear that this thug is dead (is he?). Also glad to hear that there were no other casualties (there was not?).

But enough bombings already, they never work.

Ford,

So you believe the US, with all its capability couldnt have carried out 911- yet a bunch of fools in a cave more likely could have? That bin Laden has more “wisdom and intellect” than we do?
That defies belief.

And bombings DO work. “Lebanon’s 911”- the Hairiri car bombing- got the powers that be, much that they wanted and more…

T,

You confuse “capability” with wisdom. Read the history of the CIA, U.S. foreign involvements overseas, and you will quickly discover that it is, as the most recent study has titled it, a “Legacy of Ashes”.

The Americans surrendered their intelligence gathering to the Israelis a long time ago.

Dictatorships are far more agile and able to carry out huge conspiratorial schemes. Democracies are not… these kinds of things are prodded, poked, and eventually unveiled by the Sy Hershes of the world. This isn’t to say that they don’t deal in dirty ways on a daily basis, but it is a mistake to try to imagine that they can steer the course of events so skillfully.

I’ll make myself unpopular by responding to Ford’s ‘thug’ comment in the following way: my commiserations to supporters of the resistance. If Mughniyeh was responsible for attacking a synagogue in south America, or for kidnapping foreigners during the civil war in Lebanon, he was wrong. I can’t see that he was a ‘terrorist’ for the US marines attack, however, or for the CIA man in Beirut. These were military targets, heavily involved in the Lebanese war. If Mughniyeh was the important military figure in Hizbullah that people are saying he was, well done to him for his brilliant organisational skills, for doing what all the Arab armies failed to do.

Israeli posters, et al, off you go…

[…] Joshua Landis‘ blog has an interesting and rapidly updated discussion in the comment section. Here are some of the comments: […]

Qunfuz, I agree that my use of the word “thug” wasn’t objective nor it was supported by any evidence.

If he was the mastermind of bombings of any civilian targets, then you and I agree that the word “thug” would be an understatement and his death should not be morned. Your point is well taken.

T, bombings and assassinations do work, physically, as evidenced by the death of many. However, they never work in resolving or winning any conflict. Israel has been on an assassination spree for 50 years. One can hardly say that today’s Israelis are any safer than they ever were because of these assassinations.

You indicated that Lebanon’s 911 got the powers to be what they wanted plus more. Short term, maybe. Long term? As Nabki said, they rarely produce a steering of events in a predictable manner.

Right on Qunfuz!

QN,

Sir what planet are you on??? I have been kvetching on this blog since day 1 how Israel controls our ME policy- the intel area necessarily goes without saying! Why have I been making complaint after complaint here about Mossad/Israel? Duh.

As far as military- I come from military- and know far more about it than you do. Please read history- and some non-establish sources.

Stop talking conventional generalized platitudes and b.s. Grow up. I know you’re in H.S. but still… Cmon! When you said you were American it all made sense. Oh brother.

AIG,

What is the difference between long range strategizing and “conspiracy”?

Of course Israelis are safer because of assasinations. Usually the most brave and talented people rise to the top of their organizations. If you kill them, you hamper the organization.

For example, if someone killed Obama would the chances of the democrats gaining the presidency be reduced?

Take any organization, it has key people and when they leave or die the organization is affected for at least a while.

In the specific case of Hamas, the targeted killings left them with Haniyeh who was a second rate player before the assasinations. He is weak both on the foreign front and the Arab front and his charisma is low. That is why Israel does not really want to kill him. Mesh’al is more effective and his day will come.

The assasinations also have the benefit of making it harder for the leadership to work because it is constantly looking over its shoulder and is afraid to use communication devices that may pinpoint them.

T,
A conspiracy theory is one that is at least one level removed from common sense.

At first, the most obvious explanation must be given the most weight. If I look in my backyard and see something that looks like a cat, I should assume that there is a cat in my backyard. A conspiracy theory would be for my neighbor to say that there is no cat there but a robot that looks like his cat (because he promised that his cat would not go into my backyard).

There is a simple explanation and there is the “conspiracy” explanation which requires unbelievable sophistication, ability and luck. The simple explanation is that Bin-Laden did 9/11. the rest are conspiracy theories.

My dear T,

Did the military drill all of the irony out of you?

You seem to be the only person on this blog who routinely misses every piece of sarcasm, and has a tin ear for jokes.

When did I say I was American? When I told Ehsani that I am living in New England? Guess what, Ehsani isn’t American either, and he lives in Larchmont, Westchester. In fact, very few of the Arabs on this blog are currently living in their native countries. Where, are you perchance? And what does nationality have to do with anything anyway? (I’m Lebanese, by the way)

As for the high school thing, I guess it’s time to burst your bubble. I’m not in high school!! Alex was having a little fun with you.

Stop talking conventional generalized platitudes and b.s. Grow up.

Yes sir! Just as soon as the Zionist-neo-con-military-industrial-complex tells me I can.

By the way, please do point me in the direction of some non-establishment sources. I will consider breaking with my hard and fast policy to never read anything that is not officially endorsed by George W. Bush… maybe.

(Finally, I’m just letting you know that this post contains A LARGE AMOUNT OF SARCASM … so spare me your misdirected ridicule.)

MSK,

I am happy that you are finally starting to fall in love with my preference for probabilities. : )

Qunfuz,

I was thinking about what you wrote earlier today … after watching the way his assassination was covered on Lebanon’s NBN network … and all the condolences HA got from respected Lebanese politicians like Salim Hoss and even from President Bush’s friends … Saad Hariri and Jumblatt’s party … they all treated him like a respected Lebanese hero … many expressed their sorrow that Lebanon lost a capable man who was protecting the country successfully for decades …

Then … on the other side .. The Guardian’s coverage of the story says “Israel saw him as the terrorist “mastermind” behind the planning for Hizbullah’s July 2006 war with the Jewish state”

So … he was a “bad guy” for

1) targeting civilians (if true, then he as a bad guy)
2) questionable ones … targeting the American embassy in Beirut when American troops were in Lebanon on the side of Gemayel and Israel (legitimate war time resistance?)
3) .. for successfully defending his country against Israel’s invasion in 2006 ??!

In comparison, if some Palestinian whose father was slaughtered in the Sabra and Shatilla camps which Prime minister Sharon at the time “facilitated” was able to assassinate the popular Israeli leader … then would anyone n the western press say that a bad man (Sharon) deserved it?

I mean … Sharon also had a history which included actions that could fall within the same three categories that I listed above for the assassinated HA leader.

And many more died because of prime minister Sharon’s struggle to defend his country’s interests.

http://www.robert-fisk.com/articles112.htm

Before I hear from AP regardng my “support” for “terror”, I will tell him that I think that violence guarantees counter violence … if not now, then later … both Israel and its enemies are wrong when they resort to violence… except clear cases of self defense.

And unfortunately … much of the violence has not been the self defense type.

Alex,
On bad news days you slip into the “two wrongs make a right” mode.
I know you are not happy with the fact that it is obvious that Muganyeh was a guest of Bashar and you are trying to make him less of a bad guy than he really is.

I said clearly that the two wrongs are wrong, didn’t I? …Want to try to read the last two paragraphs slowly?

Please do not try to stop people here from making that argument .. because both you and AP actually DO make that argument very often when people criticize Israel… AP used to do nothing but to reply by linking Memri material that show how the Palestinians are also violent like Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu and other friends of Israel automatically apply the same tactic that works so well with the friendly Fox news … whenever someone points out something violent that Israel did, the reply is “This is ridiculous … there is no moral equivalence”

Read this if you want:

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=9459

Alex,
If you cannot bring yourself to say that Muganiyeh is a terrorist than we have a big disagreement on what terrorism is and you have that disagreement with most of the Western world and also with your fellow Candians..

AIG,
The first category Alex has provided for you to read is the (targeting civilians) one. I mean are you so blind?

Is it conclusive that Mughanyia (may Allah rest his soul) had ever targeted civilians?

Will YOU AIG be able to bring yourself to say that the currently castrated Sharon was once a terrorist with full-fledged decoration??

AIG,

Let’s start with Mr. Sharon and Mr. Shamir and Mr. Begin … were they “terrorists”?

For example, I googled the following pairs:

Bush / terrorist = 1,410,000 results

Assad terrorist = 668,000 results

Mughniyeh / terrorist = 7,130 results

Sharon / terrorist = 724,000 results

Shamir terrorist = 86,000 results

Bin Laden / terrorist = 661,000

so … I guess these things are not scientific and not universally agreed upon.

I am not into labels and into artificial borders and into misleading classifications into good guys and bad guys .. and that applies to all sides who are playing the dirty games of politics in the Middle East.

We had enough mess in the middle east everytime an American administration agrees with Israel’s “they are all terrorists” perspective … the Reagan administration and the G. W. Bush administration.

So, no, I have no interest in anything beyond condemning violence from all sides, yours and theirs… there is a better way.

AIG / terrorist = 81,500

Qifa Nabki / terrorist = 498

Yes!

😉

It sounds as if it was Israel… And congratulations! Killing a terrorist of his stature is what ought to be done by any country that has been a victim of his terrorist activity… Killing the leaders of terrorist organizations is not only effective, but the alternative, killing the foot soldiers is certainly less humane. The rank and file individuals who work with such groups are taking orders from their leaders. To hit those who give the orders and plan attacks, on civilian airliners, for example, reduces the loss of life that is needed to prevent future terrorist attacks.

Qifa Nabki / good = 835
AIG / good = 644,000

By the way, I was the one who first came out with the AIG thing.

But there is also an insurance company in Israel with the AIG initials.

Alex,

It is important to remember that a terrorist is a non-state actor.

Armies or heads of state can commit war crimes, certainly. Nevertheless, the moniker of terrorist doesn’t apply to state actions. Other terms, such as crimes against humanity or war crimes apply in the case of an action by a state.

Usually the word terrorist is applied to a non-state actor who intentionally aims to harm civilians for political reasons.

Norman has posted an important piece by Nicholas Blanford, on the new post. You all may want to check it out.

To get back to the theorizing…

Haaretz writes that: “In past years he saw himself as the probable successor to Hassan Nasrallah in leading Hezbollah, leaving the shadowy world where he lived most of his life.”

That sounds silly–IM was no cleric, and deep relations with the IRGC do not compensate for a complete lack of popular base, or even public profile in Lebanon.

Even so, if IM did indeed have the high profile within HA that so many attribute to him, it’s hard to see what Syria would lose in killing him, IF they really did want to make an offering to Washington et al as part of a “realignment”.

Despite their alliance with Tehran, Syria has a long term interest in preventing the Iranian regime from gaining further influence within Hizbullah–and IM, by most accounts, embodied the ties between HA and the most hardline (and, perhaps, operationally independent) elements of the IRGC.

As for AIG and Qunfuz’s argument that Syria would rather kill him or hand him over in Lebanon, I find that unconvincing. Blow his car up in Syria, and most people assume it was Israel–after all, there’s recent precedent. But who would believe Syria if he mysteriously showed up in Lebanon, dead or alive? HA knows he’s under Syrian protection in Damascus, and its much easier to believe Israel could put a bomb in his car (which sounds like a 1 agent job) than kidnap and transport him.

Alex,
Shamir was certainly a terrorist. Begin and Sharon you would have to show that they intended to kill civillians as a way of waging war. That is not a clear cut case.

When you shoot an inaccurate rocket at a city on purpose, you are a terrorist. When you blow yourself up in a restaurant, you are a terrorist. When you hijack a civillian plane you are a terrorist. These are all clear cut cases. You want to dispute them or try to establish moral equivalence, be my guest. You know how that makes you look.

You can claim all you want that Sharon is a terrorist but then you would have to explain why the Europeans and Americans didn’t think so. All you will be able to prove is that your concept of terrorism is different than the one in the West. Fair enough. That is what the war of civilizations is for. 🙂

As far as I can tell according to many Arabs it is ok to kill civillians when you are losing and can’t do anything militarily. That is the old “give the Palestinians F-16s and they won’t blow themselves up”. Nobody in the West accepts this lame argument. You are not allowed to target civillians intentionally, period. Even when you are losing. That is why Hamas are terrorists and not “freedom fighters”.

Sorry folks but I can’t really get very exercized about Mugnayiah’s departure from this earth. Let’s try – for once! – to leave the wider Arab-Israeli dispute aside for the moment. The guy had much to answer for stemming from the murder of innocent Argentinean Jews in the previous decade as well as his participation in the attacks against US personnel serving in Beirut in the 1980s. And don’t put words in my mouth. No, I am not in favor of targeted hits. But if you ask whether I’m shedding a tear over today’s news, my frank answer is no, I am not.

AIG,

Enough with the Netanyahu tactics. I clearly said that all violence is wrong. If you insist on morphing my opinion into something you are used to arguing against (terrorists vs. freedom fighters) then I will remind you of our agreement that you will not be doing that.

————

Here is Assad’s meeting with the RAND Corp delegation in Damascus today.

http://www.sana.sy/gallery.html?&do=showpicserv&pid=34513&orderby=&newlang=ara

“Usually the most brave and talented people rise to the top of their organizations. If you kill them, you hamper the organization.”

AnotherIsraeliGuy’s comments are laughable. How has Rantisi assassination hindered Hamas? You say they have a 2nd rate leader in Haniyeh. Yet they’ve still managed to take over Gaza from Fatah; outfox Israel & Egypt by tearing down the international border; & the Qassam attacks have tied Israel in knots for months.

I’m no Hamas supporter but that seems pretty good work for someone so 2nd rate. And even if you argue Haniyeh isn’t behind some or any of that someone else in Hamas is. And even if Israel got whoever IS behind these tactics there’d be another 100 lined up behind him to take over.

AnotherIsraeliGuy makes the typical Israel mistake of thinking that its bankrupt counter-insurgency strategy actually works. Anyone who studies such insurgencies through history knows counter-insurgency of the Israeli kind rarely if ever works. And it certainly isn’t going to work for Israel–nor has it.

Richard,
Hamas’ amateur leadership caused a division in the Palestinian national movement and now they have alienated Egypt with their “outfoxing” that has changed nothing. They certainly have weakened the Palestinians significantly. Even the Arabs, most recently the Egyptians, have acknowledged that the Qassams are hurting the Palestinian cause and not helping.

If you want to live in an utopian world, stay in the US and vote for Obama. It is always good to be reminded why in the shemona esreh there are nineteen blessings.

Geez, only wanted by 42 different countries. How could such a peace loving individual who loves Allah be wanted by so many countries. Perfect candidate for keynote at a peace conference at the University of Oklahoma. Assuming of course that Assad pays his airfare cuz Hizballah is broke!

Thomas,
These are the guests Bashar loves. If his guests are “wanted” people will come to him to get them. Let’s send Obama to fetch Mesh’al.

Del Harrison – as for your comments about US personnel serving in Beirut. Please keep your US personnel serving in the US. If you want them to fire missiles at villages, to protect traitorous officials, and to give the green light for massacres of innocent civilians, please do it at home.

I do feel a bit sorry for those duped black and Latino soldiers, or those who enter the military because they can’t afford to go to college, but I blame the American imperialists for their deaths, not the resistance in those countries that America attacks.

AIG,

Assad’s guest used to include almost all the Iraqi leaders of today.. the president .. prime ministers … etc.

At the tactical level I might disagree with some of the Syrians’ guests’ tactics (the ones involving violence, and especially against civilians) … but on the strategic level, Supporting the Palestinian cause, or supporting the Lebanese parties who can successfully defend Lebanon from frequent Israeli invasions is good.

Just like the decision of the previous Assad to host the supported Iraqi opposition to Saddam .. when they were not welcome by any other Arab country (or by America)

Obama has experienced advisers who know the difference between Syria’s so-so tactics, and its wise strategic goals.

You know who has the power to influence what kind of guests Assad invites? … AIPAC.

The more AIPAC influences the different American administrations in a way that makes it impossible to have meaningful communications with Syira that lead to solutions, the more you push Syria to use questionable tactics… and the more the whole Middle East pays for this abnormal situation.

So if you really care about who Assad hosts .. you can rely on Mr. Barak’s skills in planning and executing these missions, getting one “terrorist” every few years. Or you can hope that AIPAC will one day realize that they are not always helping Israel when they prevent peaceful solutions or when they make life difficult for the Syrians, Palestinians, or Lebanese.

[…] I’ve been reading interesting speculation among Josh Landis’ learned readers about the assassination of Imad Mugniyah in Damascus yesterday. Some say the Israelis did it. Others say the U.S. did it. Still others say the Syrians themselves did it to signal willingness for a deal with Israel and the U.S. But I’ve been thinking about a combination of several of these options. […]

“If you want to live in an utopian world, stay in the US and vote for Obama.”

No, I’m not foolish enough to think the world can ever be utopian. But thanks for the advice & I think I’ll take it by staying in the U.S. & voting for Obama.

And if you choose to foolishly believe that Hamas is weak & ineffectual why don’t we wait to see what happens after the upcoming Israeli invasion of Gaza. And even after such a bloodbath (for both sides no doubt, but esp. for the Gazans) let’s wait to see how effectual the IDF invasion will be in cutting down Qassam attacks on Israeli civilians in the long term.

Amen to Alex’s wise words about AIPAC…

Alex,
Syria is always “pushed” to make questionable moves, it is never Asad’s fault. We get it.

You must understand that nobody is buying these excuses anymore. There can be no meaningful discussions with mafioso that are willing to support terrorists that kill civillian Kurds, Iraqis, Americans and Israelis. Muginye is wanted in 42 countries but in Syria is welcome.

There are many ways to support the Palestinian cause without supporting suicide bombing for example. How about building schools and clinics? Strange that Asad prefers the violent methods. What is strategic about always not supporting Fatah and always supporting the Hamas methods?

Why did the Syrians stop harboring Occalan? Because the Turks made a credible threat. That is the only method that will work because Syria’s strategy is based on destabilizing its neighbors and the only way to counter that is a credible threat to destabilize Syria. That is the only “discussions” that will work with Syria.

Richard,

Yes, we shall see. Everything must be viewed in context. Last year the fewest number of Israelis died as a result of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The problem with people like you is that you have no historical prespective. You latch onto current events without looking at trends. At the very least study how Israel was able to crush the second intifiada, build the wall, advance its economy and retain its allies while dividing the Palestinians and weakening them dramatically both economically and in their ability to hurt Israelis.

And the long term trend is obvious. In 48 the Israelis were about even economically with Syrians. Now they are 6-7 times richer. Go on, support the Arab regimes that have brought such dismal progress to the Arabs. But don’t you think that perhaps change is required there and it is the Arabs that are responsible to bring this change? How about chanting “Yes the Arabs Can!”?

AIG,

You are reading too much into the occalan “harboring” (I love that word) thing.

You have to realize that there were two differences from the case of Occalan to that of the leaders of the various Arab popular movements that Syria works with today

1) Hafez Assad was very sick and tired that year. He certainly was not in able to lead a war with Turkey.

2) War with Turkey would have resulted in a serious setback to Syria’s strategic objectives…

If you think that “a credible threat” will come next year from your hero (Mr. Netanyahu) … or from this administration before it leaves office … then … good luck waiting. And if it comes .. I can tell you my opinion with no probabilities attached to it: If you want Syria to chose between going to war or to abandon its popular Lebanese and Palestinian allies through a “credible threat”force, then … just remember that in 2003-2004 when Syria was supposed to be next on the US invasion list … it did not give a damn… this is at a time when the US army had just “successfully” captured Baghdad with ease.

I am hoping that “a credible peace offer” will come next year.

It is OK, you will realize that it is a good thing.

القصّة السريّة للقرار 1559
ريشار لابيفيير *

جرى اللقاء الأوّل بين الرئيس جاك شيراك والرئيس جورج بوش بعد حرب العراق خلال قمّة دول مجموعة الثماني التي عُقدت في مدينة إفيان في فرنسا في حزيران 2003. أما اللقاء الثاني، فكان في أيلول 2003 على هامش دورة الجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة في نيويورك. وكما يقول أحد مستشاري الرئيس الفرنسي، كان شيراك مقتنعاً آنذاك بأن عليه أن يبادر هو إلى «طيّ صفحة العراق لتحسين العلاقات الفرنسية الأميركية». فطلب من السفير الفرنسي لدى واشنطن جان دافيد ليفيت المقرّب منه أن يقدّم إليه اقتراحات من شأنها «العمل على المصالحة الفرنسية الأميركية». وكان السفير ليفيت مقتنعاً من جهته بأنه إضافةً إلى استمرار مشاركة القوات الفرنسية الخاصة إلى جانب الأميركيين في عمليات مكافحة الإرهاب في أفغانستان، ومساهمة فرنسا في إحلال الاستقرار في هاييتي، يمكن إبرام «صفقة» في لبنان، بل كان في الواقع يفكر في «صفقة بصفقتين» تقضي بمساندة رئيس الوزراء الأسبق رفيق الحريري، صديق جاك شيراك الشخصي، على مواجهة مطالب دمشق والمشاركة في الوقت نفسه في عملية إحلال الديموقراطية الغالية على قلب جورج بوش.

[read the rest]

Alex,
I look and see what works and what doesn’t.
Along the lines of your argument:
1) Bashar does not want war with Israel as the fact that he did not retaliate to the September bombing and does not look as if he is retaliating to the car bomb. A war with Israel would be a huge strategic setback for Bashar.
2) The tribunal indictments in June will signal the beginning of the credible threat.

I am not saying that this move will surely succeed. But I think that there is a better than 50% chance that Mesh’al will leave Syria before the end of 2008.

Syria has every right to support the Palestinian cause. It has zero right to support terrorism. It is a pity that Bashar has a problem seeing the difference.

Does any of these commentators have a clue as to who did it? What a field day this has been for speculation!

QN,

You think in cliches. No matter your age- grow up. And remember- if you want to joke around- humor is, by definition a necessity – you have to be funny. Or creative- you’re MIA on both counts.

AIG,

It is not the most talented/brave who usually rise to the top. It is the most devious and ruthless/ and or the richest and most well connected. “Talents” in your book maybe. Assets vs Talents.

There has never been an international law definition of terrorism- it is not legally limited to non-state actors as there have been no legal definitions approved and accepted by all- only definitions flung by the Big State terrorists against the poorer terrorists on the low end of the economic scale… the F16/MOAB/nuke terrorists vs those economically limited to delivery systems utilized by the impoverished classes who must use their bodies – ‘suicide bombers’ etc.
The difference between a Sabra/Shatilla Sharon and The Manson Family may come down in the end to motive and capability, and of course who is applying the terror label. (and for minors on the blog, I’m referring here to Charles and not Marilyn).

As for this Almighty Tribunal- if the Assads did it? Jail them. But show us the evidence and not some fake, cooked up junk. And then go after Bhuttos’ killer and get behind the real al Qaeda. And all the other assassinations like the Bir al Abed bombing in Haret Hreik 20 yrs ago. Why stop at Hariri if you really champion justice, truth and democracy? Get them all!

It’s likely that the cables and the assasination may be related in some overall way…needless to say…and whatever the larger picture I would suspect something larger may have happened that has incensed the Iranians.

Also, I would not count out an operation that may have involved the Israeli, US and French…or perhaps just US/French or even others…the French have incentive for their marines…in fact, there are numerous countries and organizations with incentive.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Base

But, of course, the conspiracy theories will be endless and who did this will actually never be known – or long after all of us are gone 🙂

[…] was the only person killed when a silver Mitsubishi Pajero vehicle (apparently Mughniyeh’s car) exploded in the upscale Kafar Soussa District in the […]