Chemical Weapons; Jabhat al-Nusra; The End Game; Recognizing National Coalition

Posted by Joshua on Friday, December 7th, 2012

A number of journalists have asked me if I believe Assad is likely to use chemical weapons. Here is the way I think about it:

Assad is unlikely to use chemical weapons at this time. He must know that as soon as he uses them, he will have written his death warrant. I do not think he is suicidal or about to pursue a “Samson option” as some have suggested.

The Alawite community of 2.5 million that lives in the coastal region of Syria is counting on his army to protect them from possible retribution from the rebel militias. Sectarian hatred has been driven to a high pitch by the brutality of the regime. Syrians have been putting hate in their hearts over the last two years, making the likelihood of some sort of retribution ever more likely and the ethnic cleansing a possibility, even if a small one at this time. Assad and his generals will want to protect their families who live along the Mediterranean coast.

Should Damascus become ungovernable, as I believe it eventually will — although that may be a long time from now — he will have to fall back with his army to the coastal region. Then he will have his back to the wall and the likelihood of his using chemical weapons goes way up. He would most likely threaten to use them should rebel militias begin pushing into the Alawite Mountains or attack the coastal cities. He will want to keep them as a deterrent.

The Chemical weapons scare now going on may be overblown. Speaking to a general at Central Command in Tampa yesterday, I was reminded that chemical weapons are difficult to arm and use. Sarin was used by Saddam in Halabcha, where bombs were dropped by planes, which means that Assad could do the same because he has an airforce. But for the rebels to use them effectively would be difficult, without proper missiles or systems to launch projectiles which are difficult to arm.

Here is a section from Tony Karon’s most recent Time article, which is excellent as always. It reflects my understanding of what the regime’s thinking may become:

Yet, such a fracturing of Syria could, in the minds of some of the hard men around Assad, offer the prospect of salvaging more than they might if the regime is defeated and replaced by a strong, Sunni-dominated central state. Assad’s regime is not so much a personality-cult dictatorship as it is a system of Alawite minority rule and privilege, and its core remains a cohesive, heavily armed and highly motivated Alawite-dominated army that believes it is fighting for the survival of its community. Even once it recognizes that it can no longer rule the entire country, its sectarian communal logic may militate against making a desperate last stand in Damascus, a predominantly Sunni city.

(PHOTOS:Syria’s Slow-Motion, Bloody Civil War)

“Nobody knows what they’re thinking in the regime’s inner circles, but to the extent that the regime is making rational decisions, it doesn’t make much sense to take the ‘Samson option’ and use chemical weapons,” says University of Oklahoma Syria scholar Joshua Landis, referring to the Biblical figure who wanted to take down all with him as he died fighting. ”Unlike Gaddafi in Libya, Assad is ruling on behalf of a community, and the key decisions may not be his alone to make. The Alawite strongmen around him don’t want to commit suicide. They want to protect themselves and their families from the violent retribution they fear is inevitable if the regime falls.” That, argues Landis, may make them more likely to favor a retreat to the Alawite heartland along the coast, where they’ll have a greater base of strength than they do in Damascus. If so, the regime, as we know it, will have fallen, but the civil war would be far from over.

If the Assad regime’s Alawite security core, which could field significantly more than 50,000 men motivated by fear for their lives, was to abandon Damascus, its best hope would lie in Syria breaking up into warring fiefdoms rather than reconstituting as a strong Sunni-dominated central government. The regime’s earlier strategic decision to cede control of Kurdish areas to a separatist militia with no intention of bowing to any authority in Damascus appears to reflect a preference for Balkanizing those parts of Syria it can no longer control. The regime will therefore also hope to see its enemies divided by the schism in rebel ranks between more extreme Salafist groups and those deemed secular or more moderately Islamist. Right now, the Syrian opposition coalition recently formed in Doha, Qatar, at Western behest may be recognized by France, Britain and Gulf states as the “sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people,” but its control over fighting units on the ground remains an aspiration rather than an established fact.

Some of the most striking recent rebel victories in overrunning Assad’s bases have been chalked up by the Qaeda-inspired Jabhat al-Nusra militia, whose numbers are reportedly swelling to the point that its rivals estimate it fields up to 10,000 men, many of whom play the leading combat role on the fronts where they’re deployed.

Jabhat al-Nusra

The announcement by US officials that they are moving to proscribe Jabhat al-Nusra as a terrorist organization at this time is a bit confusing. It sends controdictory messages. Whose side is Washington on? Does it want to bring down Assad and support the rebels? Or does it want to start a civil war among the rebels? The latter would would be a boon to the Assad regime.

It sends a message to Qatar and Saudis: “don’t send money to Salafi groups or we will nail you for aiding terrorists and freeze any assets you have in the West.” It would also allow Congress to begin setting policy buy setting sanctions against any militia or regional authority that associates with Jabhat al-Nusra. The Treasury Department’s expanding anti-terrorism branch will also begin to set policy, as it must enforce this sanction.

Here is an NPR clip I did about this yesterday: Syrian Militia Leaders Depend On A Terrorist Faction – “Melissa Block talks with Joshua Landis about the ongoing conflict in Syria and whether the Bashar al-Assad regime has reached a tipping point.”

Here is what Tony Karon writes:

But it remains to be seen how a U.S.-authored move against the Nusra Front will be received by fighting units to whom the jihadists have become valuable partners in combat, while the U.S. is widely viewed by rebel fighters as having done little for their cause.

Still, the Lebanese paper As-Safir reported Tuesday:

Many expect a fierce battle to break out between the Salafists and the al-Nusra Front on one hand and the other armed groups on the other, under the pretext of uniting the [Free Syrian Army]… The FSA cannot unite without settling the Salafist and jihadist issue once and for all. That may happen if the West puts this as condition for sending arms, some believe.

Civil wars, within civil wars, along the lines of those fought in Lebanon between 1976 and 1992 may be viewed as the best hope of survival by the hard men of the regime who turned Syria’s rebellion into a bloody sectarian war almost two years ago. That war has steadily dismembered the Syrian state; rebuilding it on new terms could take many turbulent years. At least, that’s what the more far-sighted in Assad’s circles may be hoping.

It’s Time to Recognize the Opposition in Syria – Room for Debate – New York times
“As Good as It’s Going to Get” by Joshua Landis, December 5, 2012

Washington should recognize and support the newly formed National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. The United States has spent the last 21 months insisting on unity in what turns out to be a very fragmented Syrian opposition. This group is as good as it is going to get. It is filled with elite Syrians, who are educated, relatively pro-American, not too anti-Israel and not too Islamist — many of whom have gone to jail for their beliefs. This group will be able to retain popular backing from the West.

The problem is that events on the ground in Syria have largely overtaken this effort at statecraft. Hundreds of militias are bringing down the Assad regime. They have largely driven the Syrian military out of the north and east of the country at a tremendous cost. They tend to look at the coalition as a foreign concoction, selected by unknown hands, and representing only itself.

The Syrians fighting in the militias come from a very different background than those placed at the head of the coalition. They grew up in mostly rural areas and have only basic educations. Salafism is the ideology of the day, taking root with growing speed. Most come from the north of the country and the poorer towns outside of Aleppo, Idlib and Homs. Some have already rejected the coalition, others have said they will cooperate with it on the condition that it delivers money and arms soon, but none are likely to cede it real authority. The president and his two deputies all grew up in Damascus and hail from elite families. None have military experience.

The big question that haunts the coalition is how it will gain control of the armed elements of the revolution. Today, Syria is ruled by guns, radicals and tough guys. It will take a miracle for the U.S. to glue this new exile leadership on top of the militia lords in Syria.

From Juan Cole – thanks Juan

The phone conversation above between two Alawite soldiers is very telling. They are caught in bases in the North that are about to fall to rebels, who presumable captured this recording and posted it to youtube. They are dispirited. Read this excellent article by Marlin Dick in the Daily Star about it.

…They both complain about the lack of support from other units, the inability to use many roads – “you just get blown up if you do” – and the isolation.

Throughout the rest of the conversation they make several brief references to the state of the war and the regime’s prospects for victory. The caller talks about being a “strike force” in the area while the second man, who is markedly demoralized, rejects the idea, based on the steady, bloody attrition.

“No … no … we’re not a strike force,” he insists, before asking: “What’s the point of being out here?”

The caller tries repeatedly to boost his friend’s morale but at one point blurts out: “There’s no solution.”

When the caller asks about defections, the demoralized officer’s response is: “No, there haven’t been any defections … there’s just … disgust.”

Neither man presumes to predict how or when the war will end. Since it is the Eid, the caller asks his friend if sweets, baklava, were offered at the base to mark the holiday.

“No, they didn’t bring me anything,” the demoralized officer responds immediately, before adding: “They brought me worries.”….As the caller laments a few times during the conversation, “There’s no one left from our graduating class.” مسرب مكالمة لضابطين من وادي الضيف وسراقب معنويات فوووق

Brookings: Al Qaeda 3.0: Terrorism’s Emergent New Power Bases |
2012-12-04

An American-Aleppine writes:

From Free Syrian Army sources it seems that FSA surrounds the city of Aleppo in a circle with wide gaps. The circle stretches 3 to 10 miles outside the city limits. The Syrian Army controls inside this big circle except the south half of the city. There is a narrow no-mans land (about 5 percent of the city area) between the two halves of the city where most of the face-to-face fighting is taking place.

Under siege by drones in Pakistan and Yemen, al Qaeda 3.0 has exploited the Arab Awakening to create its largest safe havens and operational bases in more than a decade across the Arab world. This may prove to be the most deadly al Qaeda yet. The …

“Repression Is Not a Stupid Thing: The Syrian Regime’s Response to the Uprising,” by Reinoud Leenders (4 December 2012)

The ways in which the Syrian regime has been portrayed are reminiscent of the common tendency to view violence generally as deeply irrational, and – from ill-defined but morally unwavering liberal perspectives— as always counterproductive, destructive and self-defeating. Indeed, the more violence the Syrian regime resorted to, the more it came to be portrayed as inherently inadequate and senseless. In his questioning of the irrational qualities habitually attributed to armed conflict and violence generally, one scholar, Christopher Cramer (2006), gave his book the title “civil war is not a stupid thing”. Similarly, but with far more modest objectives, I present my argument that, during the uprising in Syria, authoritarian governance and repression has not been a ‘stupid thing’ either; on the contrary, and moral considerations and judgments set aside, the Syrian regime’s responses to the uprising suggest that it is ‘in-touch’, calculative, ‘rational’, and learning –if by trial and error, and surely without necessarily quelling the uprising. FULL TEXT AT

Bunker Mentality
2012-12-04 Telegraph View

Dec. 4 (Telegraph) — Even if President Bashar al-Assad remains rational, no one can be sure that he still controls Syria’s chemical arsenal, one of the largest in the world

With one miscalculation after another, President Bashar al-Assad has reduced Syria to a charnel house and his regime to a bloodstained gang with no aim save survival. Judging by their stark warnings, officials in Britain and America genuinely fear that he could crown his litany of crimes and misjudgments by unleashing Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons….Mr Assad would be a latter-day Samson pulling down the pillars of
the temple

Free Syrian Army Fighters Destroy Statues of roman soldiers, calling them asnam, or idols.
The Internet – November 27, 2012

For one Syrian activist, second thoughts on the armed rebellion
By David Enders | McClatchy Newspapers, December 03, 2012
HASAKA, Syria

Hasaka is still controlled by the Syrian government, but even from the window of a taxi it’s obvious the people here have not been spared from the country’s civil war.

The lines at bakeries are daylong, and many schools are closed because they’ve become homes for refugees from other parts of the country. The power is out now as often as it is on, and fuel is in ever shorter supply.

Though she is happy to see him, Adam Ebrahem’s mother admonishes him for returning to his family’s home here.

“You shouldn’t stay,” she says. “The PYD will kill you.”

Ebrahem – it’s a pseudonym he uses for security reasons – is a 27-year-old revolutionary. A musician and a student, he was working and studying in Damascus when the rebellion against the government of President Bashar Assad began nearly two years ago. After months of demonstrating in Damascus, he returned to Hasaka to organize demonstrations. Now, as he travels across Hasaka province and in Deir al Zour province to the south, documenting the situation there, he openly wonders whether he and his fellow revolutionaries have done the right thing.

“What will we tell our children? That we started this revolution and destroyed the country?”

Ebrahem is a Kurd, the ethnic group that dominates Hasaka province and makes up about 10 percent of Syria’s population. The PYD is a Kurdish militia that is allied with the Syrian government; it’s the PYD that more or less controls the neighborhood Ebrahem’s family lives in. It also has clashed with anti-Assad rebels in northern Syria, heightening tensions between Kurds and Arabs.

The first demonstrations, particularly in Damascus, were hopeful ones and deliberate in their displays of unity among the country’s sects and ethnicities. But as the violence grew, it was the Sunni Muslim Arab population that armed itself. Though the narrative that has persisted is that arming the rebellion was the only choice, many peaceful demonstrators like Ebrahem are tepid in their support of that decision, and some oppose it outright.

Ebrahem’s family is making plans to leave Hasaka. They don’t expect it to remain free of widespread violence for much longer. No one does….

But his forebodings were right. A few days later, Ebrahem gave an update by phone.

“There was fighting between Kurdish and Arab students today at three schools in Hasaka,” he said.

The Confessions of a Sniper: A Rebel Gunman in Aleppo and His Conscience
By Rania Abouzeid / Aleppo

He hails from a Sunni military family in a town on the outskirts of Damascus, the capital. His uncle is a serving general in President Bashar Assad’s army, several of his other relatives are also high-ranking military officers. Apart from his parents and siblings, his relatives all think he’s dead — and that’s the way he wants to keep it….

He may look calm, but he’s deeply troubled. After some nine months of fighting with several Free Syrian Army units, first on the outskirts of Aleppo and then in the city itself after the rebel push into it in late July, he has grown disillusioned with the fight and angry with its conduct. “I did this when it was clean,” he says. “Now it’s dirty. Many aren’t fighting just to get rid of Bashar, they’re fighting to gain a reputation, to build up their name. I want it to go back to the way it was, when we were fighting for God and the people, not for some commander’s reputation.”

He refused an order in November to fight a proregime, ethnic Kurdish militia in a Kurdish neighborhood of Aleppo that the rebels had entered. “Why should I fight the Kurds?” he says. “It’s a distraction. This isn’t our fight.”

Syrians in the opposition, whether armed or not, have often said that there may be a revolution after the revolution to unseat Assad. The fault lines differ depending on whom you talk to. Some envision a fight between Islamist and secular rebels; others between defectors and armed civilians; some say it will be ethnic, between Kurds and Arabs; others simply territorial, between rebel commanders in a particular area, irrespective of ideology. Others say it won’t happen. The Sniper, like many fighting men, thinks that it will, and that it will be ugly: “We will not become Somalia after Bashar falls,” he says. “We will have many Somalias in every province.”…

And so rebel snipers, especially professionally trained ones, are in great demand. The Sniper says he has “been offered so much money, it is as if I am working for the mafia.”

“Some [rebel commanders] offered me money. Others would say, ‘Just tell me what you want.’ One told me, ‘I’ll bring your parents, take them to safety. Just come and work with me,’” he says. “It does not honor me to work with people like this who think they can buy and sell me.”

Instead, he has found a home with Liwa Suqoor al-Sha‘ba, an Islamist unit of the Free Syrian Army headquartered in Azaz, a town north of Aleppo in the vast band of countryside in rebel hands around the city. For the past few months he has been stationed in the northeastern neighborhood of Bustan al-Basha, a devastated wasteland emptied of all but three of its thousands of residents. “We cannot charge on [government] positions — if we do, they will eliminate us — nor can they advance on us,” he says. “It’s not that I’m tired, but I want something new. New territory. I’m sick of it here, I’m disgusted by it.” But he respects his adversaries, who he says have pinned the rebels down now for months….

“We were in school together. We grew up together. His mother was like my mother, that’s how close we were,” he says. The Sniper is pensive, takes several deep breaths and fidgets with his 10-mm handgun as he speaks of his friend, repeatedly flicking off the gun’s safety. The young men joined the army together and stayed in contact even after the Sniper defected. He was the only person outside of the Sniper’s immediate family who knew that he was still alive. “I would tell him to defect, he’d say, ‘Not yet, it’s still early.’ I’d say defect. I told him I’d come and get him, that I would go anywhere to see him, to help him defect, even to the gates of his brigade. Whatever he wanted, wherever he was, I would get him. He kept saying, ‘It’s still early, it’s early.’ He was scared that his family would go through the same thing my family went through.” The Sniper says his family members were interrogated, harassed, ostracized in their community. The only thing that saved them from greater harm, he suspects, was the clout of the loyalist military men in his family and the fact that they thought he was dead, not a defector.

Mohammad was eventually sent to Azaz, stationed at what was called the Shatt Checkpoint. Both the Sniper and his commander repeatedly urged Mohammad to defect, warning him that they planned to attack the checkpoint. He didn’t listen. “We were three snipers. We killed a colonel, a soldier and my friend. I don’t know which one I killed, I didn’t see their faces. They were soldiers in front of us, and we were ordered to kill them.” That was three months ago.

“He’s gone anyway, what good is thinking about it? I did — for a long time afterward. I thought, ‘Why? He was my friend. Why did I shoot at him? I shouldn’t have.’ But I have left those thoughts behind me. I have to move forward.”…

“Whoever is going to be in my sights will die. That’s it,” the Sniper says. “My heart has hardened. I returned to religion, but after I killed, my heart hardened. A sniper sees who he kills,” he says, pausing. “It’s hard. A sniper sees his victim.”

Its a Disaster Live iside a Syrian Refugee Camp
NPR

Aleppo: How Syria Is Being Destroyed
The New York Review of Books 20/11/12

New York Times

Syria Moves Its Chemical Weapons, and U.S. and Allies Cautiously Take Note

Report: Syria Has Chemical Weapons Ready to Use
Leslie Horn

Mideast’s WMD ‘red line’ gauntlet
By Bennett Ramberg, December 3, 2012, Reuters

….Remember the ultimatums that called on Iraq to get out of Kuwait in 1991; the Taliban to surrender Osama Bin Laden in 2001, and the demand Saddam Hussein leave Iraq in 2003? Each failed and war ensued.

With red line failure more often than not, both the United States and Israel must map a response. As it turns out, however, Washington may face the more immediate problem…..

Jihadists answer the call in Syria
USA TODAY –

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Comments (164)

Ghufran said:

اعلن مسلحو المعارضة السورية الذين يقاتلون في محيط العاصمة دمشق أن مطار دمشق الدولي اصبح منطقة مستهدفة، منذرين المدنيين وخطوط الطيران من الاقتراب منه.
وقال نبيل العامر المتحدث باسم المجلس العسكري في دمشق إن ألوية المقاتلين الذين يحاصرون المطار قرروا يوم الخميس ان المطار بات هدفا.
واضاف ان المطار يغص الآن بالمركبات العسكرية المدرعة والجنود وان المدنيين الذين سيقتربون منه الآن هم المسؤولون عن انفسهم.
Rebels have to be in control of the airport to stop the planes they do not like from landing, what they are doing now is a form of terrorism .

December 7th, 2012, 8:52 am

zoo said:

An analysis and assessment of the failing military strategies by العميد المتقاعد أمين حطيط

http://www.arabi-press.com/print.php?id=56203

و في الخلاصة نقول ان كل ما يروج عن قرب حرب او تدخل عسكري اطلسي في سورية ، انما هو مجرد حرب نفسية و سلوك تعويضي ، و جمع اوراق قوة للربيع المقبل حيث باتت ارهاصات المفاوضات الدولية تلوح في الافق بعد قناعة جبهة العدوان ان بلوغ اهدافها بالعمل العسكري بات مستحيلا ، و ان حل الازمة السورية لن يكون الا عبر طاولة تفاوض دولية يحشد فيها كل فريق اوراق قوته و يتخلى عن اوراق الضعف ، و بهذا نفسر القرار الاميركي الاخير باعتبار “جبهة النصرة ” تنظيما ارهابيا لغسل اليد الاميركية من جرائمها قبل الدخول في المفاوضات الاتية و في الختام لا بد ان نسجل للفريق المدافع عن سورية احترافه في ادارة معركته الدفاعية و بنجاح ملفت (في وجوهها كلها السياسية و العسكرية و الاستراتيجية حتى و في الحرب النفسية ذاتها ) ادى الى هذه النتائج .

December 7th, 2012, 9:01 am

ann said:

Syrian opposition urges action to stop chemical weapon “disaster” – Dec 7, 2012

The world must act to stop President Bashar al-Assad’s regime unleashing a chemical weapon “disaster”, opposition Syrian National Council chief George Sabra told reporters in Paris on Friday

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_12_07/Syrian-opposition-urges-action-to-stop-chemical-weapon-disaster/

“We ask the countries of the world to act before disaster hits not after,” Sabra said.

Clinton calls for ‘concerted push’ on Syria

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Friday on all parties with influence in Syria to make a “concerted push” together to halt the conflict.

Clinton said there had been no “great breakthrough” during talks in Dublin on Thursday with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and the UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, but said there would be further meetings.

“All of us with any influence on the process, with any influence on the regime or the opposition, needs to be engaged with Brahimi for a concerted, sincere push to see what is possible”, Clinton said.

Ban Ki-moon urges Security Council to unity on Syria

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on the international community and the UN Security Council on Friday to unite and take decisive action to end the conflict in Syria, saying only a political solution could end the violence.

“I urge the international community, and in particular the Security Council, to stand united and act decisively to end the crisis,” Ban said after visiting a refugee camp in Turkey.

“The military path is a dead end. It only fills the streets with more blood, it only fills camps like this with more tears.”

US intel claims Damascus ready to use chemicals

Pentagon’s Leon Panetta has said that intelligence reports suggest Damascus is planning to use chemical weapons against rebel fighters.

“We remain very concerned, very concerned, that as the opposition advances, in particular on Damascus, that the regime might very well consider the use of chemical weapons,” Mr. Panetta was cited by The Voice of America as saying Friday.

The US spy chief refused to comment on potential consequences of such a move but said “it is fair enough to say that their use of those weapons will cross the red line. The intelligence that we have raises serious concerns that this is being considered.”

Various US and European sources earlier reported increased activity around Syria’s chemical arms depots. Washington claimed the regime was moving sarin gas components and loading them into bombs.

Syrian deputy foreign chief Faisal Maqdad has accused the West of trying to exploit chemical threat to justify a possible military invention.

Russia has no proof of Syria’s chemical weapons plans –envoy

Russia has no data proving Syria’s intentions to use chemical weapons against the opposition – the country’s envoy to NATO Alexander Grushko stated Friday.

The official confirmed Russia’s concern with the situation and said that Moscow is closely following all information about the issue and will immediately react if something suspicious is reported.

[…]

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_12_07/Syrian-opposition-urges-action-to-stop-chemical-weapon-disaster/

December 7th, 2012, 9:08 am

ann said:

Clinton says US, Russia agree to back mediation on Syria, but Assad must step down – December 7, 2012

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-eu-us-syria-20121207,0,581859.story

BELFAST, Northern Ireland (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton says the United States and Russia have agreed to support mediation efforts with all parties in Syria to bring about a political transition.

In a new effort, Clinton met with Russia’s foreign minister and the U.N. peace envoy for Syria to try to chart a new path forward.

[…]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-eu-us-syria-20121207,0,581859.story

December 7th, 2012, 9:14 am

zoo said:

Pomposity and a sense of urgency is storming the armed rebels ahead of the looming amputation of their fiercest fighters, the terrorists of Jabhat al Nusra.

Syrian rebels say airport legitimate target

http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rebels-airport-legitimate-target-135226389.html

The rebels issued a stern warning to the regime and travelers planning to use the country’s main airport, just a few kilometers (miles) south of the capital.
…
Another rebel, speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reason, said the airport is now considered a “military zone.”

“We urge civilians to stay away,” said the rebel, a member of the Damascus area military command involved in Friday’s fighting.

December 7th, 2012, 9:15 am

ann said:

News Analysis: Talks of Syrian chemical weapons: prelude for intervention or further pressure on Damascus? – 2012-12-07

Media reports revealed Wednesday Russia’s intention to provide the Syrian administration with Iskander Missiles in the face of the U.S. Patriots

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2012-12/07/c_132026967.htm

DAMASCUS, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) — The U.S. administration and its Western allies have renewed talks of Syria’s alleged chemical arsenal over the past week, sending stern warnings to Damascus against using it.

Such move has raised questions: is this added pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, or a prelude for a foreign intervention?

U.S. President Barack Obama and other U.S. officials have unleashed a barrage of warnings to the Assad administration citing Western media’s reports that “the Syrian regime has shown signs that it may be making chemical weapons material.”

Obama said he wanted to be “absolutely clear” to Assad that ” the world is watching and the use of chemical weapons is “totally unacceptable” and “if you make mistake of using it — there will be consequences and you will be held accountable.”

The Syrian government then made several statements, saying even if it had chemical weapons, it wouldn’t use them “against people.”

“The real concern is that the U.S. may have other plans; to provide the terrorist groups with such weaponries… to justify any foreign intervention in Syria’s internal affairs,” Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad told local media on Thursday.

He stressed that any foreign military aggression on Syria will be costly and lead to catastrophic consequences in the region.

Qadri Jamil, the minister of domestic trade, asserted recently that “the West is looking for an excuse for direct intervention. If this excuse does not work, it will look for another excuse.”

However, Syrian analysts and experts argued that the United States and its Western allies’ talks and warnings only aimed to practice more pressure on Damascus.

Sharif Shihadeh, a Syrian parliamentarian, told Xinhua that ” stirring this file now doesn’t exceed a political pressure by the Western countries along with some regional ones in a bid to achieve political and strategic agendas.”

He said Washington knows that Syria doesn’t possess such weapon, adding that all “this wrangling aimed at empowering the Western stance in the face of Russia that supports the Syrian government.”

Meanwhile, Afif Delleh, a political expert, concurred with Shihadeh, saying the talk about chemical weapons is a “mere media magnification aimed to achieve political gains on the negotiation table.”

Delleh, who runs a center for strategic studies in Syria, said that the Syrian administration “will not commit such a folly act because using that kind of weapons would not resolve battles in the military sense, but have catastrophic results on the civilians. ”

He concluded that the Western countries will use all pressure cards to squeeze the Syrian administration.

Other observers believe that the United States wants to stir the chemical weapons case because it acknowledges the presence of radical fighters of al-Qaida in Syria and that in case of further deterioration in the country, those weapons might fall in the hands of those fighters which will cause great danger to Israel.

Meanwhile, the NATO has approved Turkey’s request to deploy Patriot missiles along the Turkish borders with Syria to “protect Turkey from a possible attack from Syria.”

In response, Media reports revealed Wednesday Russia’s intention to provide the Syrian administration with Iskander Missiles in the face of the U.S. Patriots.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2012-12/07/c_132026967.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:18 am

ann said:

Russia sees signs of NATO involvement in Syria crisis – 2012-12-07

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026923.htm

MOSCOW, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) — The deployment of anti-aircraft missiles on the Turkish borders with Syria was a sign of NATO’s involvement in the Syrian crisis, said Russian envoy to NATO Alexander Grushko on Friday.

“It is difficult to imagine that Syria would be interested in mounting tension on the border. Deployment of the Patriot missiles means NATO has been getting involved into the conflict,” Grushko said during a video linkup between Moscow and Brussels.

“We see a danger of further involvement of NATO into the situation in Syria as a result of provocation or some border incidents,” Grushko said.

Meanwhile, Grushko said Russia had no information that Damascus was going to use chemical weapons.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026923.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:22 am

ann said:

Syria denies rebels’ control over Damascus int’l airport – 2012-12-07

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026800.htm

DAMASCUS, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) — A Syria military source denied Friday media reports circulating on some Arab TVs that rebels took control over the country’s international airport in the capital Damascus.

The source, whose remarks were carried by the local media, rejected the news as “unfounded and aiming to heighten the morale of the terrorists.”

Clashes along the 30-km road to the airport have been raging since last week, when the armed militias waged a large-scale offensive to cut the road and control the airport.

The Syrian troops responded to the attackers and unleashed a great firepower, leaving around 3,000 of them killed, reports said.

Separately, the state TV said electricity has started to gradually return to the northern city of Aleppo after the government workers fixed the damage caused by armed groups on a gas station that feeds electricity generator center in the war- torn city.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026800.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:26 am

ann said:

Car bomb goes off near mosque in Syria’s Homs, injuring 15 – 2012-12-07

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026731.htm

DAMASCUS, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) — A car bomb went off in Syrian central city of Homs near a mosque after Friday’s midday prayers, leaving 15 people wounded, the state media said.

The blast rocked the Insha’at district in central Homs, the report said, adding that some 15 people have been injured and material damage has been caused.

No news of casualties has emerged yet.

In the capital Damascus, meanwhile, a mortar shell fired by armed militias slammed a building at al-Mazzeh district and caused material damage only, according to local media reports.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_132026731.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:31 am

ann said:

Libya’s Islamic militants get arms meant for rebels: report – 2012-12-07

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_124059615.htm

WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) — The Obama administration secretly approved arms transfer to Libyan rebels by Qatar last year, but Americans were later alarmed by growing evidence that Qatar was giving some of the weapons to Libya’s Islamic militants, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

However, the report said no evidence has shown connections between the weapons provided by the Qataris back then and the attack that killed an American ambassador and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya in September.

In the months before the attacks, said the report, the Obama administration was clearly worried about its hidden hand in helping arm the Libyan rebels, which are concerns that have not previously been reported.

According to the report, the experience in Libya has taken on ” new urgency” as the Obama administration is mulling whether to play a direct role in arming rebels in Syria, where money and weapons are flowing in from Qatar and other countries.

The Obama administration did not initially raise objections when Qatar began shipping arms to oppositions in Syria, but Washington later has growing concerns that, just as in Libya, the Qataris are equipping some of the wrong militants, said the report.

Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are reportedly feeding weapons to the Syrian rebels. However, the Obama administration has so far refused to directly arm the Syrian oppositions, for fear that the weapons may end up in the hands of the more hard- line Islamic groups in the Arab country.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_124059615.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:36 am

ann said:

Blast rocks district of Syrian capital, killing 1 – 2012-12-07

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_124059558.htm

DAMASCUS, Dec.6 (Xinhua) — At least one person was killed and 29 others injured when “terrorist” blast rocked the Syrian district of al-Mazzeh 86 on Thursday evening, the state-run SANA news agency said.

The blast rocked the area between a bakery and a school bus stop in al-Mazzeh 86, the report said, adding that children were among the injured.

The blast is the latest in a series of explosions that have become daily routines recently.

Earlier on Thursday, one person was killed when a roadside bomb went off near a branch of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent in Damascus.

[…]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-12/07/c_124059558.htm

December 7th, 2012, 9:40 am

ann said:

US ramps up threats in ‘psychological’ war on Assad government – 07 December, 2012

Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile is not designated for anything but deterrence, Mohamad says. “It is obvious that Syria has something that is scary to its opponents, but the idea is that this thing was built to face the massive nuclear bomb power that Israel has”

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-weapons-rebels-460/

American media are reporting extensively that the Syrian president is getting ready to use chemical weapons on his own people, raising concerns that Washington could be planning a strike on Damascus with the chemical threat as a pretext.

Reports that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is preparing to use its chemical weapons at home have created a storm in the US media.

NBC reports that the Syrian military has loaded sarin, a deadly nerve gas, into aerial bombs, which could then be dropped on rebels from Mig-23 or Sukhoi-24 aircraft.

Unnamed American officials stressed that so far the bombs have not been loaded onto planes, and that over the last 48 hours there have been no major movements at chemical weapons sites of concern, ABC News reported.

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton warned that if Assad goes down the chemical weapons road, he would be crossing “a red line.”

President Barack Obama also warned Assad that “the use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable.”

Clinton said that Washington is worried that Syria’s chemical weapons might fall into the hands of the Syrian rebels, some of whom have links to Al-Qaeda.

“Our concerns are that an increasingly desperate Assad regime might turn to chemical weapons or might lose control of them to one of the many groups that are operating within Syria,” Clinton told reporters Wednesday.

Syrian rebels also claim to have reached Safira, a town with stockpiles of chemical weapons south east of Aleppo, according to a video posted to YouTube.

According to another video posted to YouTube, rebels threaten to kill Naseeriyah, the Allawide sect, “and supporters of Bashar Al-Aasad with our chemical weapons.”

The video features two rabbits that die in convulsions just a minute after inhaling a chemical agent.

A text underneath the video reads, “Your destiny would be like them because you are missionaries for Naseeriyah and supporters of Bashar Al-Aasad. God is great. God is Great. Wait and see. We from the AR-Reeh Asarsar Chemical Battalion, the Destructive Wind Chemical Battalion – we shall kill you all with our chemical weapons.”

The situation is reminiscent of the military buildup and war of words before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Washington and London used the pretext that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction as a justification for going to war. The allegations proved to be false, but the damage was done.

In the latest round of US saber-rattling, the USS Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier holding eight fighter bomber squadrons and 8,000 men, joined the USS Iwo Jima, an Amphibious Ready Group of 2,500 marines off the Syrian coast yesterday.

Paula Slier, RT’s Middle East correspondent, explained that the US is making contingency plans in case Assad’s regime suddenly crumbles.

“They are aware that Assad has received numerous asylum offers, and the United States stands ready for direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict,” she said.

Hisham Jaber, a former general in the Lebanese army and head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Research in Beirut, explained to RT that America is conducting “a psychological game designed to threaten the Assad regime.”

He expressed concern that the weapons might fall into the hands of the rebels, and believes the only viable option available to Assad is to ask the United Nations to help him safely dispose of them.

He thinks the US “may send in Special Forces to occupy, control and destroy the chemical weapons.”

Washington says President Assad could resort to using chemical weapons out of despair, as his government is on the verge of collapse. But Ali Mohamad, editor in chief of the Syria Tribune, believes such concerns are exaggerated.

“They’ve been saying this for the past, like, 18 months, and so far the Syrian government is still there and it is not desperate,” Mohamad told RT. “The question is why President Assad or the Syrian army would use chemical weapons? It’s winning the ground, the Damascus airport battle a week ago proved that again. Why would Syria give a pretext to the US to intervene when it does not even need to?”

[…]

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-weapons-rebels-460/

December 7th, 2012, 9:47 am

ann said:

Syria Ripe For A False Flag Attack – Dec-6-2012

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dd1_1354851440

December 7th, 2012, 9:57 am

Tara said:

The coast is Syrian and will always stay Syrian. Assad and his followers won’t have a chance of building their own Alawite enclave there. He may try but he should rest assure that the people of Syria will not allow this to happen no matter the sacrifices. Those who are not interested in living in the New Democratic Syria may want to start thinking about joining their brethren in Hatay. They can fuufil their desire worshiping Bashar there. We promise we won’t ask for Iskandsron back. They can have it.

December 7th, 2012, 10:35 am

majedkhaldoun said:

Mr. Landis
The republican guards and the forth division are present around Damascus, they are mostly loyal Alawis, a defeat in Damascus means Assad will run out of loyal soldiers and he or his generals will have very small number of loyalist to defend the mountain (jabal),
Losing Damascus will be the end of Assad rule.
Damascus battle will be very destructive, and Assad will lose over 40,000 loyalist,whatever will be left will die on their way back to Jabal,during the retreat.

December 7th, 2012, 11:02 am