I am not sure America has to decide for Sunnis or Shia’a. If played smart you can have allies or at least reach an understanding with both. at the end of the day both parties need to live together. but if they continue with the divide and conquer policy that the British used in the 20th century we will continue to see the region edging toward regional conflict.

No Landis, stop lying to your readers. 9 men from the security of the LBC were training in a shooting range. The Lebanese army commander, hardly from the March 14 coalition, issued a statement clarifying that they were not Lebanese Forces.

9 people with individual automatic weapons hardly qualifies as the Lebanese Forces “rearming.” The bit about the ISF is irresponsible at best. As for the “Palestinian groups” which “it has been suggested” Syria was arming, you fail to mention that this faction, Fateh Intifada, is a purely Syrian proxy. You also fail to mention that two members that were arrested have confessed to have been tasked with assassinations and attacks on the UNIFIL, two explicit Syrian objectives.

Fast and loose with facts as usual.

It is exactly what is going on. Let us not forget that Saudi Arabia and all sunni countries (Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait but not Syria) have enthousiastically helped and supported Saddam Hussein, the sunni dictator, when he invaded Shia Iran and created the first of a serie of turmoils in the area. This is something Iran can never forget and forgive. Then the sunni block had to face the invasion of Kuwait by their sunni friend, they panicked and called the West for help. By doing so they triggered the start of the West interference in the area that culminated with the disastrous Iraq invasion where their sunni fellows are threatened and weakened. Obviously they despise so much Shia Iran that they had preferred to have christians mercenaries to protect them and went into another disaster for their sunni fellow.

Saudi Arabia (except for islam extremists)is a bourgeois country, their army has fought no war and they know it is usuless despite the huge armement sold to them by the West. They worry that their protector, the US, would turn away from them.
Blinded by their hatred and suspicion of the ‘heretic’ Shia, they have been making mistakes after mistakes. Now they know that Iraq’s solution is in the hand of Iran and they know that either they have to deal with the “heretics” or see their sunnis allies in Iraq loosing power and maybe be massacred.
A similar process is happening in Lebanon. The emergence of Shia Hezbollah legitimaly asking for more power is just another terrifying prospect for the Saudi and obviously uncontenable. The Saudis will have to choose, either their sunnis allies (Hariri & Co) sit with the Shias, burry their hatred and make serious compromises to share power or they risk loosing any of the ‘tiny’ regional power they still have.

G please show me that.. I want to be convinced:

The Lebanese army commander, hardly from the March 14 coalition, issued a statement clarifying that they were not Lebanese Forces.b

I dont believe one bit that the LF Forces are arming, and G you are correct.

Something Interesting though, we just had a relative arrive from Lebanon last night, and we asked him about the facts on the ground : his words verbatim

” The sunnis are split 50/50 in defence of the government and the rest sympathise with the opposition, The shiites are split 50/50 as well, some spoke about not wanting to support the demonstrations but communal affiliations forced them, The christians are equally split.”

Sounds interesting, trying to sift through the media information/disinformation and the clutter is getting very confusing. Hoever way you look at it, it is only a matter of time before things get ugly. It will only take one miscalculation, i dont think that the hit on Gemayel was big enough to spark unrest.

The leading personalities Harriri, Siniora, Jumblatt, Aoun, Berri, Nasrallah would all be listless in their beds. I wonder when the hit squads will have the audacity to strike at these characters , its only a matter of time!

Chaos theory should be studied in these times!

Facts in Iraq:
1) shi-ah are 58% of the population,Sunneh are 42%
2)Iraq is urrounded by Turkey,Syria,Jordan,and SAK
who are Sunneh,and can increase the power of
Sunneh in Iraq
3)She-ah has holy places , in Iraq,that they need to protect,thus they may have to give
concessions,more than Sunneh.
4)police have minor weapons,surely the insurgent
has more power,where as an army (if powerful)
will have tanks,military
planes,helicopter,rockets ,etc.
I believe US must release Tareq Aziz,to give him negotiation power, and also release Sultan Hashem and put him Army Chief,so he will form the Iraqee army again, this certainly mean that the US must think pulling american troops out, so they will not be in danger.

“Chaos theory should be studied in these times!”

… that’s right.

and, as for the “facts”…. I think no matter the grayness of the details, the point is that shit is potentially (if not inevitably) going to hit the fan soon and those with the weapons are most likely preparing for that.

I disagree with the premise,

it may not even be a choice between Arabs and Farsis; each has their own sphere of influence. The best option would be to encourage open societies/markets to flourish, as in the Emirate’s [relative] example.

However, as you so eloquently point out, the US is choosing one “side” over the other, at this stage. This is an aftershock of its Iraq invasion, and I have a feeling that this madness will take time to play itself out.

Lebanese billionaire is drawn into BAE arms deal inquiry as ‘second middleman for Saudis’

· Focus on Swiss accounts of Mohammad Safadi
· Politician is not a target of SFO investigation

Another billionaire Saudi middleman was named last night in the Serious Fraud Office’s controversial Saudi arms deal inquiry, according to potential witnesses. The SFO is seeking information about any Swiss bank accounts belonging to Mohammad Safadi, a Lebanese politician who has acted for relatives of Prince Sultan, crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

Mr Safadi would not comment last night at his office in Beirut, where he holds the office of public works minister and also controls the Safadi Group. His property firms have received contracts from the British arms company BAE and have interests in office blocks in London worth £120m.
…

The SFO inquiry, which began when the Guardian obtained documents in 2003 suggesting BAE was running a £60m slush fund to bribe Saudi generals, has expanded to cover secret BAE payments in half a dozen countries, alleged to total more than £1bn.

One potential witness who has been interviewed by the SFO told the Guardian: “I was asked by them about Mr Safadi’s role. I told them that his UK firm, Jones Consultants, had paid bills for Prince Turki bin Nasser, head of the Saudi air force.” …
The Guardian

I doubt the accuracy of the comment by one of the readers that the Sunnis are just 50/50 supporting Seniora. I am from Beirut. Seniora are supported by about 90% of Sunni. The 10% are: Ahbash who almost disappeared, followers of Usama Saed (Sidon) who are in reality just against Hariri but not supporters of Hibz-Iran, followers of Murad (Biqaa) who couldn’t get 2 buses to go to the opposition demonstration yesterday, and finally Karameh (Tripoli) who is trying lately to stay out of the argument!
The Christians are divided among themselves but are almost united in supporting Seniora! Franjieh could not gather few buses to go to Beirut yesterday and Aoun is losing fast his own followers. So far, the Tayyar has lost student government elections at the universities, several of his followers declared that they split from the Tayyar, and even some of his Parliamant bloc Members make it clear that they don’t agree with him!

Nicholas Blanford calling the protesters a “mob” (while famously describing the March 14 crowd as “telegenic”).

I had thought that the obvious bias in Blanford’s book was due to intellectual laziness, but perhaps I was too kind…

T_DESCO, I just received this note from Nick Blanford in reply to your comment, which I sent him!!

Josh,
That’s the pitfall of doing times online interviews where you explain over the phone a situation to London. It is hard to convey the real complexities here and often the choice of words that gets put together and posted on the website is not an exact reflection of what one said. Still, you can’t write about this stuff without pissing off some people on both sides of the debate. I have had pro-Hariri people grumbling why I wrote about Hariri’s corruption in my book and made him come across as naive. By the way, I never called the March 14 crowd “telegenic”. I’m not that crass. That was edited into the article after I filed the copy.

Spent the day today chatting to the folks on the streets in downtown Beirut. Funny talking to the Aounists who said they were used to these scenes having attended the independence intifada last year. Now they are tent-by-tent with the pro-Syrian crowd. Strange times we are living in.
best, Nick

The serial killer on the Lebanese soil MUST be found, arrested a prosecuted with the help of internal court. This fact is a given, you can’t strike a plea-bargain with a determined serial killerThis elusive serial killer is arm and dangerous, has unlimited resources stolen form poor, broken, oppressed and inner-colonized country by a sect-clan.
Lebanon should not be allowed to fail and defeated by this last wave of Shiites attack via by the paid agents of Iran, Being a Shiites or Sunnis is not an identity, and will not get you a Passport or nationality. Being a good Syrian, Lebanese or Iranian may get you somewhere to start the catch up game with the civilized world..

Ghassan:

Thanks for clarifying, my information is rom a relative that has just come back, and we are halfway across the world in austrlia, and listening to the different sattelite news whether pro or anti government it is hard to disseminate information or verify its accuracy.

Zenobia is right no matter the greyness , if a compromise is not reached ( proverbially the shit will hit the fan ) , but i think this will only happen if one of the big wigs is gunned down.

The only way forward i think is for Hezbollah to have more of a claim in the running of the state will be a harbinger or poison pill! ( ie have more seats but your arms must go ). Whether they accept this compromise is another matter.

Nick Blanford is trying to sound impartial, but the slip of the tongue ( calling Hezbollah a mob) and his schematic explanation of the catalyst is shameful.
“The catalyst for the protest is the UN tribunal aimed at finding the killers of Hariri. The Lebanese government has recently approved the establishment of such a tribunal, consisting of both Lebanese as well as international judges.

First the tribunal is not ‘at finding’ the killers but at judging them, the investigation UN group under Brammertz have yet to give the names of the suspects and this is been constantly postponed by Brammertz as he obviously has not yet found the suspects. Secondly Nick Blanford should explain the facts:
The present anti-syrian governement elected by a syrian-dictated election law have bypassed the consensus of the governement, used the absence of the Chief of parlement, ignored the objections of the President and approved the final draft of the establishement of the International tribunal. They hope that this tribunal, after the investigations report is produced, will pindown all the crimes on Syria and therefore weakened Syria and weaken and possibly eradicate their allies in Lebanon.
The opposition have repeatedly said they supported the international tribunal but that the priorities should be first: To have a more representative governement, then modify the syrian-dictated election law into a lebanese law, make a new election, choose a new president election and then deal with the Hariri murders. They suspect that the present governement they consider illegal, is trying to trick the lebanese in making them believe that the international tribunal will solve all their problems. We know it will solve nothing soon as it may last two or three years to produce results and in the meantime Lebanon will remain in the mess it is now..
This is the reality but the US influenced media want so much Syria and Iran to be the scapegoats for the US debacle in Iraq that they will use anything to hammer that Syria and Iran are behind the mess in the region.

The main reason America is failing in our region is that they came in and continue to come in with incredibly stupid ideas. This is because they do not know the middle east well. Not even their best middle east experts know things nearly well enough. This article proves this again. You can not choose between Sunnis and Shias, that is a physically impossible thing. You can start civil wars this way however.

When you think how the Russian and Chinese have hundreds of people who speak perfect Arabic and live in Arab countries you just know the US will lose to them.

Currently, Al Azhar university, the highest Sunni fikh (I hope Josh knows the word) authority in the world, has it’s walls covered with pictures of Hassan Nasralla. What does this mean?

The fact that Iran is Shia is by far not the most important reason why KSA backed Saddam. They didn’t want Iran’s influence within their own population. Later on, KSA sent their army to fight Saddam in 1991. They didn’t want Saddam’s influence either. Also the west was with Saddam and it is a constant of Saudi foreign policy : be with the west.

How sectarianism works : Religions do not hate each other in the middle east. Naturally they do not fight, but they can very easily be turned against each other. Political parties use this fact. They are equally as skilled with the “we are all brothers” song. Good luck.

Ghassan is 100% correct